/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54789220
heads says recession in the next year
tails says recession isn't happening

Who knows

>>54789230
we're safe

The only thing that's priced in for Bitcoin is pure halving copium

>>54789220
>recession looming and isn't priced in
this one

>>54789220
doesn't even matter the market bottoms out before the recession. I've been dumping all my money into investments for the past 6 months

>>54789220
Recession is starting in august nerd

>>54789220
already happened

>>54789220
The recession already happened but it isn't priced in yet.

>>54789220
there will be a recession in the next two quarters
it's overly priced in for profitable nasdaq companies and treasury
not priced in for SP500 because of millennials pouring their paychecks into it like lemmings
we'll see SP500 drop 15%. FAGMAN has already kinda recovered. Interesting opportunities in smaller tech firms (the non bullshit ones). Boomers rushed out of them and they will jump back in when they FOMO after FED changes course.

>>54789250
Delusional
>>54789313
Yes, we are out if next year only thou

>>54789282
Thanks for the sell signal

EXTREMELY SEVERE WARNING: There will be a gargantuan, behemoth, mammothic, omega, giga ultra extreme recession next year.

>>54789220
I don’t think we’ve seen the worst yet, and I’m a pretty bullish/optimistic person generally. Even when 2008 hit I didn’t have as much of a pit in my stomach as I do now.

Here’s the weird thing: I have this gut feeling that the sign of market turnaround will be the end of the Russia/Ukraine war which probably has quite a bit of time left to it.

>>54789220
This is uncharted territory. The train has long gone off the rails.

>>54790940
If you think recession is priced in while every retard that bought before summer 2021 (the absolute peak of euphoria with elon going on SNL to shill shitcoins) is still in the green, youre the one who is delusional you subhuman animal

>>54789240
Thank god.

>>54789220
counterplay
everybody thinks there is recession-> pump to make them think there wont be
everybody thinks the recession is cancelled due to pump -> recession

It won't even be a recession.
Look around you. What does the US working population look like these days? What does the US make that is of value? Think for 2 seconds about these questions and consider whether you would long the US for >2 years max.

>>54789230
>odd says recession in the next year
>even says recession isn't happening
roll

>>54789220
a 3 quarter recession and we are now in the first quarter and first month of it :)

>>54795762
rolling for cheap house

>>54789220
Recession incoming.
Recession can't be priced in.

>>54795799
roll
>>54795762

>>54789220
Shut the fuck up anon, I don't need this kind of negativity for fuck sake, I'm literally just waiting for Rebase to finish the beta and go live

>>54795948
Not like it will do jackshit faggot

>>54795948
We need more negativity you faggot, there's too many niggers in this board spamming garbage

>>54795781
Absolutely based

>>54795948
>He doesn't know
KEK

>>54789220
>banks collapsing
>remaining banks tightening lending standards
>fed still on track to raise interest rates thereby worsening the credit crunch
>credit crunch makes it more difficult for corporate financing and refinancing
>companies start hiring freezes and slow down productivity projects in anticipation of further difficulty securing funding
>retail consumer spending begins tapering off due to worsening inflation
>Biden re-legalized sub-prime mortgages
You are here
>the rate hike that broke the camels back
>manufacturing orders begin to fall off
>non-tech companies start mass layoffs
>home owners that lost jobs forced to list housing as short sales or at negative equity (doesn't matter how low their payments are if unemployed)
>recession starts
>sub-primes begin to default within the next 2-3 years
>more rate hikes despite worsening conditions (the soft landing is a pipe dream)
>deflationary stagflation recession starts (i.e. the second great depression)

I fucking hate bobos but the writing is on the wall.

>>54789220
The recession already happened but it's gonna get way worse, and people think they priced it in but it's gonna get way worse.

>>54789220
Yid curve uninverts, two months later we get a half a year long recession, standard of living permanently drops after this. This is a really basic bitch prediction but it happens every fucking time and every fucking time people meme themselves into believing it won't. It will, like it always does

If the recession hasn't started (it hasn't) then it has to start. Rate increases can't stop until inflation comes down (= recession) or fed gives up (= weimar US).The bond market priced in a recession ages ago. Yield curves are still inverted.

>>54789220
>>recession
There will be no recession. What's coming is more accurately considered a depression.

>sorry goy we have to increase prices because of inflation
>sorry goy we have to increase interest rates because of inflation
>sorry goy we have to cause a recession because of inflation
>why? well because that's all central banks can do to control inflation
>yes the inflation is mostly in necessities, and no, people can't live without spending money on necessities, but it's not like we can poof more food into existence! so all we can do is make you poorer until you stop buying food :^)
My government cares about me and wants me to be happy

>>54796432
>and people think they priced it in but it's gonna get way worse

In the words of Warren Buffet when everyone is selling then you have to do the opposite of that which is buying

>>54796015
>home owners that lost jobs forced to list housing as short sales or at negative equity (doesn't matter how low their payments are if unemployed)
This is entirely accurate, the fed has been pumping this bubble 20x since 2008
The original Mad Max was true, and everyone thought it was a funny low budget joke

>>54789220
Whatever everyone tells you will happen, the opposite of that.

>>54795799
Obviously you are late to the party jsyk we have been in a recession since mid 2022 but clowns like you have no idea cause you basically just garbage in what you watch on mainstream media

>>54797220
Sounds easy but the irony of everything is we have pajeets selling the dip instead accumulating aggressively.

>>54789220
The labor market is fucked and can't be unfucked without officefags being laid off.

>>54789220
How much worse do things have to get before the Second Great Depression is officially designated?

>>54797878
It will never be officially designated. It officially doesn't matter what officials say any more. This is a sign of decline.

>>54789220
>all
>none

Stop noticing!

>>54789220
Remember that NYC and the like are filled to the brim with kikes whose sole purpose in life is to part you with your money to make it their money. The work day and night, hopped up and cocaine and whores, to empty your coffers, no matter what it takes. They invite you into the casino, make you think you can win, just know the odds goy. You only have a lotteries chance of escaping your plebedom

>>54793824
Unironically correct. Pump just enoguh for people to think we avoided it, and then dump. Max pain.

>>54797746
>Sounds easy but the irony of everything is we have pajeets selling the dip instead accumulating aggressively.

Not surprised that's what happens when retards follow clowns like Jimmy Cramer blindly
>>54797878
>Second Great Depression is officially designated?
You retards are just panicking aimlessly, there's no great depression you retards need to wake up and stop listening to mainstream media and their forced narratives.

>>54796624
>will be no recession. What's coming is more accurately considered a depression
This and the Fed has no recourse to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Prepare your buttholes for BJC

>>54798538
>You retards are just panicking aimlessly, there's no great depression you retards need to wake up and stop listening to mainstream media and their forced narratives.

I would rather the retards keep panicking it gives me the perfect opportunity to buy BTC below 20K and hopefully get some ETH below 1500.

>>54798951
Another way to look at this, the weak hands keep panicking and then I get to buy my favorite alts which include CYMI, EWT and QNT.

>>54798951
ETH will shit the bed below 1000 if BTC goes under 20k. ETH/BTC looks horrible

>>54789220
>>54789240
I rolled a d20 and no joke this was the first roll

>>54789220
>Which one is it?

>>54789220
Just sick of this shit. I’m trying to get a better job and I’m just getting nowhere
I feel like my whole adult life has been a shitty jobs market and economy

>>54792219
>every retard that bought before summer 2021 (the absolute peak of euphoria with elon going on SNL to shill shitcoins) is still in the green
are you talking bout the sp500?

>>54800203
So many people are like you right now fren. I know someone who sells her plasma, and fainted during. The kikes don't care, they called her back for more blood. She gets Medicaid and is very poor. Truth is most people are skirting the line between this and homelessness. I program computers so my pay is "decent" (still can't afford a house tho!) but I'm glad at least to be grounded by poor people, aka most people. This is not sustainable.

>>54789220
We already had two recession in 3 years and now are about to be in another one but White House changed the definition so it's all good now :)

>>54800203
same feels.

>>54795683
>barely any worker's rights
>barely any holidays
>normalized working hard
>lots of land
>lots of resources
I would not short the US even in their current dire straits and absolute state.

Okay fags, I will spill you some ol' grandma's wisdom beans. Economy as a whole doesn't stagnate forever - that was 2000~2012. Now the question is are all sectors refreshed and ready to go up? No. Your last house burnt down and now you build new one with systems so it doesn't burn again- gl you will be fcked by earthquake next. 2008 will not happen, instead you have sectors that underperform heavily while others go up to infinity eg. your rent stays more or less the same but your wage goes up. Those who are volatility adjusted, profit the most, like the corn. Those who take opportunity get rich, poor get more poor, wealth inequality rises and civil unrest too. You also have Benner's cycles, shemitas, and 17.6-18 year market cycle, time fibs which all neatly allign in about 10 year from now. This means we are in secular bull market still (started just few years ago), what "covid" did is just a mid cycle correction. From here we are not stopping until 2035. But this time the train we have, has even more limited capacity.