/biz/ - Business & Finance

Thanks OP. Longing oats is probably the safest bet, I imagine.
I wouldn't short OJ without doing some research; I know there is a virus that has been wiping out orange groves.

>>54688675
my rationale is simple. orange juice is not an essential good, with countless substitute products.

I only ask two questions for this position:

1. is orange juice the next reserve asset like some kind of liquid gold?
2. will oranges continue to be produced into the future, or will the virus end oranges permanently?

this short will pay

expanding on the substitute products, substitutes exist for juice which require no orange at all. orange "drink" has been an extremely popular substitute for real orange juice, probably because it is full of added sugars which is very addictive.

when this short pays, i will be rich, and i will be drinking cheap orange juice again

>>54688657
How the fuck is orange juice a commodity?

>>54688908
frozen concentrated orange juice was invented, making futures contracts on the juice viable. began trading in 1966.

you'd know about the movie trading places which was centered around a huge orange juice short. normies dont know, but they will

its blindingly evident /biz/ has no intelligent users left. this thread offers three incredible positions on a silver platter and gets no takers. its a shame.

How many bags of oats do I have to buy to make it?

>>54688657
Best thread on /biz/, good tips
What you got SPY doin 3-6mo term

>>54689478
nothing good. the commodities super-cycle is upon us. 3-6 months is short, i think it will be stagnant. i doubt any accurate repricing occurs this year.

post your positions faggot

i think the price of copper is slightly above where it should be. i think everybody should have a long position on silver but i think you could get a better entry than right now, perhaps even a couple dollars better.

if you want a short term position i think shorting sugar is reasonable.

my largest position is a leveraged natural gas long. this position is so large if my thesis on natural gas is correct i will retire

>>54689512
natgas won't go above $4 anytime soon. even $3 is not as sure as u may think it is.

>>54689510
9 positions on natgas from 1.95 to 2.20, leveraged about 6x. i am 80% in. 50-60% of my position was $2

OJ short is breakeven right now

Oats is breakeven.

>>54689418
trying to predict the commodity market through futures is one of the hardest games in town

it is intelligent not to risk your capital in such an imprudent manner you colossal faggot

>>54689520
you have obviously never traded natgas before. $4 could be reached in less than a week off some news. I am seeing murmurs below the water indicating a massive move

>>54689529
its far easier than trying to predict the fair price of any internet money.

>>54688657
Do you have any info on activated almonds?

>>54689535
That was back when most of production was sourced from offshore platforms so a hurricane could cause a supply shock. Not anymore with the amount of flaring and overproduction from shale. Any international news or whatever won't cause as big a jump as you think it may. Not anymore.

>>54689551
its absolutely hilarious how there are no buyers to be found at 2.20 natgas but its everyones favorite asset when its at $8 lmao

>>54688657
Commodities in general are getting crushed. I would stay away, with the exception of gold.

>>54689585
i dont buy tops, i buy bottoms.

we are not the same

>>54689595
You know nothing and will get your ass handed to you.

>>54689597
hope you sleep well at night buying commodities like gold at all time highs.

if precious metals run, silver will outperform gold and you can buy it now at normal prices, instead of ATHs

you have no other comments on the rest of my positions posted ITT because you can see i know what im doing

>>54689535
elaborating on this. historical volatility is the single best indicator when trading natgas, or anything really. this has flashed just prior to every ideal trade on natgas in the past 3 years.

it is giving the strongest signal in history right now, and just confirmed the move is to the upside.

i dont know what to tell you faggots.

>>54689640
if you can look at this and argue a test of the 300day ma isnt coming faster than a freight train you must be impaired

>>54689418
We're all in /gme/

>>54689795
go away baggy

Brazil is the top exporter of orange juice and its joining alliance with Russia and China (BRICS) and will settle trade in other currencies than USD, while USD prints money like crazy but that trade seems too obvious, I think 'they' must fuck you first with another ATL before the inevitable pump, unless the collapse of some US Future markets, then nobody will pay you, they will just delist these futures

>>54689960
i have never understood you end of the world types. if the US collapses you have a lot more to worry about than your investments.

i invest based on reality, not your fallout fantasy, faggot

>>54689977
It would not be the end of the world, it's just business, if you lose money you close the branch and before that you do everything to stay afloat

>>54689640
which in turn will moon inflation expectations and cause the fed to go even fuller retard
a medium time frame economic slowdown would bring natgas prices then down again
its hard to use historical averages when we are right no living through very atypical and market distorting times

>>54690047
this is what every poor trader says when the greatest opportunity is present. "oh no there is no opportunity here because of x and y"

the price is the price, and the price is very very cheap.

>>54690061
there is this thing called capital preservation anon, not everyone here is adversarial
what proxy are you actually using to buy the nat gas?

OP what do you see for crypto and equities this year?

>>54690107
Could hit 9.8, but more likely 7 to 8 max

>>54690107
volatility and shit returns if you are just holding. see 1970-1980. commodities will become the new hype investment vehicle for the normie crowd

>>54689418
The collective IQ on /biz/ is too low and the skin colour too brown to bother discussing day or swing trading strategies here bro. This board had absolutely amazing daytrading threads in 2017 discussing potential setups and overall strategies, then the 2020 bull murdered any quality oldfag discussions. Newfags even astroturfed "swingies get the rope" in open hostility towards anything that's not le rebbit hodl 2 da moon cult. Just treat this board for what it is - jeet shills and some quality memes to share a good laugh

>>54689418
I'm sorry bro your thread is fucking excellent I had no idea natgas was this low.

>>54690183
it is inevitable natgas will make new aths at some point. i might be early entering this long but im not wrong

if natgas bottoms here it will be the first higher low natgas has made in almost 25 years. if this is the case, i see natgas beginning another multi decade bullrun.

if you want to add to the numerous unrenewable scarce resources civilization will always need, lumber is another at surprisingly cheap levels.

these are sale prices that you will make you kick yourself you didnt enter at, because you either didnt know, or you are just a shit trader

>>54690240
>lumber is another at surprisingly cheap levels.
You are a fucking god, two golden picks in one thread. Do you have anything else?

>>54690253
ill post if i find anything. im not in on lumber yet. im probably most proud of my orange juice short position not because its my largest but because itll sound the funniest when i finally cash it in

>>54690211
anon what are you actually buying to make a play on this, etfs or some form of contracts?

>>54690326
leveraged contracts for what i believe are some imminent immediate gains. i also have a portfolio i have been creating incase what i think will happen happens. im not telling specific stocks, but im creating this with far heavier preference toward the leadership of the firms than anything else

i hope i dont need to state the obvious for anyone reading this that you should not be holding contracts long term. i have plenty of extra margin if necessary for what im doing. do your own research im one schizo anon

>>54688657
nat gas is obviously undervalued, /biz/ you really should be dipping your toe in at $2 (and going hard if it keeps dipping) it wont stay sub $3 long

>>54690231
>multi decade bullrun
You are delusional. Don't get too greedy with your longs.

>>54690399
1991 - 2005 ring a bell? every fat cat you young pricks see in a suit these days rode natgas and natgas stocks.

enjoy your youth while you have it, leave trading to the adults

>>54690346
I'm retarded and never traded futures or commodities. Can I just buy spot without any margin and just forget about it?

>>54690431
dont get involved in anything im posting here then. seriously

>>54690438
Why not? I've done well with spot trading so far. I don't care about margins or leverage.

>>54690438
>>54690489
Never mind I can just buy the UNG etf.

>>54690531
Yeah I was also trying to work and futures contracts earlier as a mate tipped nat gas as well. Might just etf too.

>>54690531
>UNG etf
zoom out thats a fun graph, what happened there it cant be directly related to the gas market so they got rugpulled by a collapsing bank in 08 or what

>>54690601
I have no idea but its been following it pretty closely for the last ~5 years so who gives a fuck. It does look really wonky though.

>>54690326
I'm buying exploration companies of oil and natgas for long term. Some big players and some medium sized players. These medium sized players will pop in the next 5 to 10 years due to demand. You can also gamble on the small explorers which are the shitcoins of commodities, if you buy 3-4 with a bit of your money and one either finds something or you buy them close to bankrupcy and the price of natgas goes up you can make good money but it's very speculative.

OP you convinced to “buy” natgas. (I don’t know how to short so I skip the other two)

How do I trade this on IBKR?

>>54688657

I have no idea how to trade commodities and my broker does not support anything fancy either. I'm always thinking ETF or miners/storage/producers

>>54690956
>trading commodities
>fancy

>>54690726
based