/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54564274
>>Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years
That statement will sure age poorly.

>>54564282
when they say 'mild', you know it's probably gonna be spicy

and when they say 2 years, it probably means 10

>>54564282
I think Chibese and Russian bot posters should be range banned and maybe killed.

BUY BUY BUY

You guys are missing the bigger point. CPI is a devastating blow to inflation. This means they will ease off the rate hikes and we are about to bull so hard your head spins off.

Buy right fucking NOW.

>>54564274
Sell in May and go away.

>>54564696
Lol. I, for once, side eithe american government and hope crypto, as a whole, dies. This entirely manipulated market is funding America's enemies. Look at how the CNH moves with each pump and dump.

GDP was a pump-and-dump ponzi metric, is anyone surprised that it is now going down?

>>54564696
CPI is a manipulated metric and nobody pays attention to it besides the boomers in the Fed.

>>54564696
read the minutes. they still think the risks are to the upside for inflation, because services inflation is stubbornly persistent. they basically say there needs to be job losses before services inflation goes down. they are nowhere near cutting.

by the time they do cut rates, they will be cutting INTO a recession, just like they always do. there's nothing bullish about that

>>54564274
I remember a whole thing about denying we were in a recession in like... was it spring of last year? 2021? But looking at the gdp chart now there's no sign it every fell.

>>54564322
But you can't kill a bot, you see. You can only disable it.

>>54564274
Its over

>>54564696
>This means they will ease off the rate hikes
Yeah because we're heading into a 10 year deep recession. In 2007 the Fed predicted a soft landing and refused to acknowledge the recession until everything broke. A big part of their job is setting expectations: if they tell the public that everything is fine, then the public will spend money like everything is fine and consequently everything will actually turn out fine. If they say there will be a recession then people will stop spending money and it will cause a recession. The fact that they're admitting a recession is coming is scary especially since stocks are sitting at crazy high valuations

>>54564825
We can glass China and ETH trannies.

>>54564858
I bet you said this shit in 2018 faggot

>>54565083
>I bet you said this shit in 2018 faggot
That hiking cycle happened over several years and the Fed only got to 2.5% FFR before the market forced them to cut. It was also a period of normal inflation and the stock market hadn't begun it's parabolic melt-up yet. The Fed still had the ability to drop rates and stimulate the economy to avoid a recession.
2023 is different because of inflation expectations. If the Fed drops rates and starts QE too early then inflation expectations will get out of control and we'll have a bigger inflationary crisis. The Fed is forced to wait as long as possible before cutting rates and starting QE. They'll kill inflation but the resulting recession won't be easy to fix.

>>54564274
The Fed wants a recession

>>54565187
You think too much no joke

>>54565211
>line just be going up n' shit no cap on god frfr
Zoomer investors will learn a lot of lessons during the gigarecession

>>54564696
>You guys are missing the bigger point
You guys are missing the narrative they want you to think and repeat

FTFY

>>54564274
It must be really bad. They’re not even supposed to utter the word RECESSION.

>>54564858
Do you think we'll see a pause in hikes next month, or will they keep hiking rates until everything comes crashing down?

>>54565564
>Do you think we'll see a pause in hikes next month
I think we'll see 25bps at the next meeting and that will be the last hike. All of the data shows that the economy is slowing. At this point the Fed would normally be cutting rates to try and avoid a recession, but this time they can't because of inflation expectations.
The Fed has said that prefer to overtighten to avoid the inflationary dangers of undertightening, and that they can use their tools to revive the economy if they hike too much. I expect that they will follow through with this plan: one more 25bps hike and then they will hold rates for as long as possible. When things get bad enough they will drop rates and start QE again, but it's no guarantee that it'll revive the economy. The Fed is hoping that the post-GFC playbook still works

>>54566476
it won't, they can't stop inflation. it is structurally impossible

>>54564274
i want to punch his stupid wrinkly lips that lost me so much money

>>54566507
>it is structurally impossible
If wages were growing at the same pace as inflation then it would mean that the economy has structurally changed. In that case inflation would be difficult to combat.
In our case inflation adjusted wages have fallen for 24th straight months, so we are at no risk of a wage-price spiral. Inflation adjusted wages are falling, retail sales are slowing, production is slowing, housing prices are falling, banks are failing, lending conditions are tightening. A deep recession is coming and it will kill inflation and the economy.

>>54566626
that will cause mass defaults which will make the currency worthless and goods scarce, inflation will then skyrocket

>>54566656
Retard, money going poof makes it more valuable since there is less going around.

>>54566724
not when the US must choose between letting the banking system die or stopping inflation, while also being itself at risk of default

>>54566734
*choose between letting the banking system die or letting inflation run

>>54566507
>they can't stop inflation
They could by contracting the money supply but they won’t because they’ll break everything. They caused this mess and faggots actually expect them to fix it.

>>54566656
>cause mass defaults which will make the currency worthless
The opposite is happening. Companies and countries all over the world need US dollars to pay back their debts. The Fed is sucking US dollars out of the world economy by keeping rates higher for longer. This makes it harder for USD denominated debt to be repaid. The dollar is significantly stronger right now then it was during the 2020/2021 bullrun. When mass defaults happen the dollar will peak in strength
>and goods scarce, inflation will then skyrocket
Yes, but not before a recession. The recession will give the Fed a reason to restart QE and the government a reason to do stimulus. We'll have a repeat of 2020: goods will be scare because companies have shut down but at the same time the Fed will be stimulating the economy. Biden will also probably push some crazy stimulus packages.

>>54565564
Jerome is Volcker 2.0

He's not gonna ease up till we are well within recession territory. He has a reputation to uphold after all.

>>54564274
We have been in a recession for over a decade. They have just been masking it by under-reporting inflation.

>>54566787
>The opposite is happening
only in terms of dxy, which is imaginary value measured against imaginary value. fuel prices are up, goods prices are up, as always it's not going to be a straight line but inflation has not abated. countries need dollars so they can dump them immediately, they are not holding which is the only thing that gives something value. we've been here many times before but the point is the same: even if they keep delaying it, which they have done for decades and I don't expect them to stop because it is their mandate to delay it, it is structurally impossible to stop inflation

>>54566866
>which is imaginary value measured against imaginary value
The USD is backed by the USA and all the people and companies inside of it. The USA is not an imaginary country. The USA is messed up but other countries are even worse. For this reason the USD will remain king for a while longer
>I don't expect them to stop because it is their mandate to delay it
The Fed has been trying to create inflation since 2008. Their mandate has been to create more inflation, not delay inflation. The 2020 crash gave them the excuse to turbocharge QE and create the inflation they wanted. It gave them the opportunity to get rates to 5% when previously that was impossible.
>it is structurally impossible to stop inflation
Then why has inflation slowed down? Why have fuel prices come down from their peak? Why are house prices coming down?

>>54566965
>Then why has inflation slowed down? Why have fuel prices come down from their peak? Why are house prices coming down?
Top of the roller coaster.

>>54567006
>Top of the roller coaster.
Yes, and it's going down before it goes back up

>>54566965
we're talking about "inflation", not who is king of the currency shitheap. prices will continue to rise just as they have risen for a hundred years, and they will rise very quickly when the banking crisis returns, which will happen well before the us approaches default.
>Their mandate has been to create more inflation, not delay inflation
their mandate is to keep inflation near the target range
>Why have fuel prices come down from their peak? Why are house prices coming down?
again, nothing in markets ever moves in a straight line

>>54567116
>we're talking about "inflation", not who is king of the currency shitheap
Inflation and currency strength is very much related. The USA can afford QE because the USD is the dominant currency in the world.
>their mandate is to keep inflation near the target range
Which meant creating more inflation after the deflationary GFC. The Fed had interest rates at zero and still couldn't produce the inflation that it wanted
>again, nothing in markets ever moves in a straight line
You previously said it was structurally impossible to stop inflation but now admit that inflation is slowing
>and they will rise very quickly when the banking crisis returns
Banking crises are deflationary because banks lend out less money

>>54564696
You say everything is bullish, why should I believe you for the 100th time since Jan 1 2022?

>>54565211
Yeah so lets see the only bullish holdings portfolio anon. You'll just use excuses to not post it because
>option 1: you're full of it and are just hoping your constant spewing eventually makes the majority pump it
>option 2: your networth in these bullish holdings amount to a few thousand dollars
Come back when youve got upper 6 figures and have it on the line

>>54564696
by the time they do cut rates, they will be cutting INTO a recession, just like they always do. there's nothing bullish about that

Precisely! They are always late to raising rates when inflation picks up and always late to lowering at the other end of the cycle.

>>54564274
Should i care if my fat stacks of $PARTY are booming?

>>54566476
This nigga gets it. This is precisely what will happen.

>>54566787
What are your thoughts on the Fed precipitating a 2008 financial crisis before the Democrats go into the election of 2024?

Are they really going to formally kickoff Great Depression 2.0 (already started IMO) with a market collapse going into an election year?

>>54564282
your mum will age poorly

>>54566566

>>54569112
I think a recession will benefit the Democrats and is something they desire. Just like how inflation gave the Fed the excuse to raise rates to 5%, a recession gives the left an excuse to create big stimulus packages and push them through. They'll be able to give money to whoever they want and they'll meet no opposition because of the recession. They'll frame it as them coming to rescue and bribing everyone with stimulus check

>>54570374
>using social stimulus programs as a tool to pull americans out of a recession right before a major election
yeah, this is exactly how i saw it playing out. i bought into crypto heavily following the FTX collapse but have yet to plunge into stocks. i see the market revisiting lows in the latter half of this year.