/biz/ - Business & Finance

you bought calls right anon?

always do the opposite of what jews say

>>54311854
I'm holding to msft 300

>>54311854
>Hello I bought this call
>No I will not hold

Jerome Powell owes me a bang maid

>>54311854
Ticker: SPY
Strike: 600
Expiration: December

I went all in on one stock.

VOLATILITY DECAY
>VOLATILITY DECAY
VOLATILITY DECAY

To give you a tiny sip of how real it is, even in the short term, today I bought KOLD while BOIL was 2.18. Obviously, BOIL drops, KOLD rises, and vice versa, *but*, as the day moved through the relatively wide crabs between 2.23 and 2.10, it started having to get farther and farther below 2.18 for my position to go green. Now, just imagine how this functions over longer holds.

Perhaps this will provide a useful nugget for anyone else dabbling in leveraged/inverse/etc. ETFs, as they are more complex than just 1:1, and that includes relations with the underlying assets.

>>54311641
>look at waymo and other if you want an actual self-driving car.
Laughable
Noone has higher than level 3 self driving license

>>54311871
I forgot the pic

>>54311858
"John Clifton "Jack" Boglewas born on May 8, 1929, in Montclair, NJ to William Yates Bogle, Jr. and Josephine Lorraine Hipkins."

Bogle is a Scottish surname, Hipkins is English.

HA HA time to sit down for my single meal of the day.

>>54311920
I'm having chipotle at a wake currently

>>54311920
>HA HA time to sit down for my single meal of the day.

>>54311943
Ah, the drink of PBR holders.

>>54311893
umm sweetie, Isnt it the other way around?
>taxpayers -> bagholders

>>54311920
what ya eatin anon

So dead by Sunday night before Euro open?

>>54311920
Based OMADer

>>54311969
SJIM

>>54311854
I HATE YOUR FACE SO MUCH!!!!!!!!

Kek this popped up on my recommended, the nigs know it's coming

>the FED

>>54311969
Damn how this guy hasn't received death threats. Those with higher iq can see the purpose he serves but to anyone else that takes whatever he says at face value must be busting a blood vessel.

>>54311920
I don't think you understand just how ridiculous the scene is this image portraits. A pine apple at that time would cost around 10000 USD in our money - and there are two of them on the table. Now look at the women. DO YOU THINK A MAN WHO CAN AFFORD TWO PINE-APPLES WOULD HANG WITH THOSE HARLOTS? DO YOU?

>>54311965
1 full sized turkey
A ham
A beef stew
A sourdough loaf, a loaf of rye, and a loaf of whole wheat bread
various whole vegetables, peppers, broccoli, tomatoes, potatoes
A flask of wine.
it doesnt take me long to eat, only about 2 hours.

How did the banks get bailed out if the DODD FRANK ACT OF 2010 EXISTS? WHAT IS THIS SUPER MAJORITY SHIT IM HEARING OF? 5 PEOPLE CONTROL THE WHOLE BANKING INDUSTRY? ARE WE FUCKING CRAZY?!

>>54311983
I'm going to watch his content, if he's bearish I'm becoming a permabull.

>>54312002
kajit has wares if you have coin

>>54311996
could you pass the uncooked bell pepper? For dessert I will that the cucumber with an uncooked potato.

>>54311854
My broker literally wouldn't let me unless I cancelled my buy order for SWVXX. I told them no biggie I'll play next week

>>54311989
F.E.D. posters are retarded, every time.

>get into the stock market in late 2019/early 2020, just before covid hit
>oh this will pass just like SARS and swine flu
>mfw it doesn't
>mfw that was over 2 years ago
>mfw i'm still 20% down
w-when does this become profitable

>/smg/ - STOCK MARKET GENERAL

>>54312010
dodd frank killed small banks with regulatory burden. big corporations like more regulations as it kills off their competition.

>>54312024
what?

>>54312038
When you inverse yourself and use options to hedge properly and not as a gambling tool

>>54312038

>>54312052

>>54311920

>>54312024
Bell peppers, anon? Sure!

>>54312038
Time in the market beats timing the market friend!

>>54312054
does anyone here make money with anything other than options

>>54312038
Bitcoin 3x'ed since then where were you anon

>>54312038
it becomes profitable when you're not looking at it. that's the trick

>>54312038
Bruh, how did you lose money on covid? This entire thread made so much money shorting

>>54312038
if your not in the green in 10 years kys

>>54311996
I miss her bros

>>54311943
Literally me last night fr.

>>54312069
I mean, you gotta leverage up one way or another to make real money

>>54312067
You have 140551 dollars.

>>54312082
>>54311943
i got beer

>>54312069
You make money during the frantic bull run when leverage becomes 90% of the market, don't forget to sell next time.

>>54312024
have you ever had uncooked bell peppers? they're tasty. great for salad. ... as for the taters ...good point, but nowhere near the ridiculousness of having 2 pine apple and not being the queen of england. ... (pic related)

>>54312074
probably because i only started to understand the basics when covid began and didn't have enough capital to throw in until covid was mostly over

>>54312091
>You have 140551 dollars.
For now, and it's been on a steady down trend ever since.

>>54311996
One of them could be his slampig and the others their children

>>54311871
>>54311915
I think I’ll buy in again. I made 400% but lost 40% on a shitty call today. What’s a good strike price and date

>>54312091
>140k
amazing how that is all some people have after half their life while the people who rule the world have 1000X that amount.

>>54311983
He's bullish and recommending we buy bank stocks now.
https://youtu.be/DdG53UMSu-o?t=466

>>54312101
Cucumbers are great too as long as you cut off their skin. Juicy, almost like melons, you can just eat them as is.

stagflation bros...

>>54312105
with two pine apples you can afford having sons.

i'm drunk bros, maybe we can invade syria or something, WMD 2? Boogaloo? spx 40k?

>weekend

>>54312010
>ARE WE FUCKING CRAZY?!
Yes

>>54312108
and the majority of people on this living planet only have 1/10th of that. there will always be some one above you, better to find a way to be happy within you means

>>54312147
recently I tried pan-frying some, because I saw it in a korean cooking show. To my suprise It wasn't bad.

>>54312166
no one should be allowed to have more than 10 millions dollars.

>>54312010
oh hohohohoho anon....if only you knew how bad things really are

>>54312177
nobody but me

>>54312038
thats three years, anon

Day 12 no fap almost in the books. I feel weird bros. Am I healing?

>>54312188
i can't remember the exact dates, work had me in a blur from week to week

>>54312204
no, it's spring and you are getting an extra hour of daylight in the evening.

>>54312204
you'll never feel alive again

>>54312204
This only works when you're young, at my age you stop cumming the body just says I guess we're never cumming anymore, turn that shit off. That's why I have to keep cumming, to keep my body alert

>>54312220
>dik poopshit

IT JUST KEEPS CALLING
THE PRECIOUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

>>54312038
>he didn't make money during COVID
anon. sometimes you make mistakes, that you need to reflect on. this is one of those times.

>>54312227

>>54312222
Its so weird getting old. I probably produce 3 times the goo but have 1/8th the drive.

>>54311920
It's gas station food again for me tonight because I'm too lazy to go grocery shopping and my back hurts too much to lug groceries up to my apartment

>>54312245
If your gas station has a Krispy Krunchy chicKen you are eatin' good tonight.

>>54312213
>>54312220
>>54312222
My brain feels different, my voice is noticably deeper, it's been a rough few weeks though. Mentally, spiritually. I gotta keep it going.

>>54312239

>>54312239
cool

why do i keep getting banned from every platform on the internet, including 4chan. Is it me who is the problem, or everyone else?

How do I short social media

>>54312265
are you me?

>>54312264

>>54312265
you gotta speak in half truths anon always

>>54312265
the overton window has been shifting rapidly friend, you are being left behind

>>54312238
see
>>54312103

>>54312265
>>54312277
Neither one of you is me

>>54312265
you have to find where infinity chan is hiding. good luck on your journey

>>54312280
goyim

Baking.

>>54312300
I miss this little nigga like you wouldn't believe

Baneking.

thoughts?

>>54312265
the internet has been taken over by the party and does not allow wrong-speech.
you have some options though:
you can go to a bar and say whatever you want to say, although you may get attacked or thrown out there too
you can host a pirate radio station
you can go to the center of the town and just start yelling at anyone that walks by, also may get beat up
you could type up leaflets and disperse them in mailboxes, likely to get the cops called on you.

>>54312317
>>54312300
it was comfier then

Barking.

>>54312320

>>54312320
Thinking.

>>54312320
yield trap, but also a man's gotta eat

Should I buy the dip in Deutsche Bank?

>>54312294
>>54312330
i used this to submit a fake card to my uni and they never said anything. feel bad for the people that actually took that injection.

>>54312320
do they do something other than cereal? I thought cereal was falling out of popularity since it isn't filling and people realize it is just eating candy for breakfast.

Drinking.

Someone post the $400 SOXL ta
I'm gonna rub one out to it

>>54312256
Sadly no. By the time I get out of work they don't even have roller items out. It's probably going to be shitty burritos or an overpriced digiorno

>>54312348
>fiCXfK3e
i just wanted to see some concerts, fun times

Fugging.

>>54312355
How are fortified whole grains equivalent to candy?

>>54311983
Whats with YT recommending obscure shit with barely any views

>>54312361
it's made with gold anon

Frogging.

>>54312375
>corn coated with sugar is healthy and marshmellows.

>>54312376
return to the mean after the pfe purge

>>54312355
this is their north american segment

>>54312375
It's sugar coated with sugar with vitamins sprayed on like it's rice

I would like to announce that I respect everyone itt

HOLY SHIT TECH BROS

Why is the Nasdaq site switching between after-hours prices and one from Apr 6, 2023 every few seconds?

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/real-time

Same for other tickers.

>>54312408

>>54312361
who dis AI cutie pie?

>>54312410
wagmi

on monday after I make my purchase, I will tell you about a potential moon stock

GUYS WE HAVE COMPANY BE ON YOUR BEST BEHAVIOR.

Keep the antisemitism to a MINIMUM

>>54312412
chatGPT has hacked the Nasdaq mainframe

Smelling.

>>54312433
how will we know its you? what will the codeword be?

>>54312449
noonstork

>>54312433
liar

>>54312441
Oh shit they're going to steal all of our best stocks

>>54312449
The codeword is 'Banana oreo milkshake'

>>54312441
hello plebbit

>>54312441
*ahem* yes stocks, stocks. stocks are great. luv me stocks. i am totally normal and not insane and talk about sound investments with rational thesis. yes, lets see, semiconductors are all but crack in name. buy SOXL

>>54312441
N

>>54312478
I

>>54312441
Tell them to buy AQB.

>>54312483
K

Redeeming.

>>54311889
Boil was $4 all day.

remember that time i told u fat autistic retards to short SAVA and u didnt listen to me

>>54312487
E?

>>54312458
BOIL HAND OVER FIST
>BOIL HAND OVER FIST
BOIL HAND OVER FIST

>>54311971
Doesnt that fuck your metabolism?

>>54312496
i'm husky not fat

is the market discounting a pivot? was powell not clear when he said higher for longer?

>>54312495
*in* the 4s yes, what is your point supposed to be? Do you understand what I wrote?

>>54312441
Poo Poo Pee Pee

>>54312441
>Keep the antisemitism to a MINIMUM

Whats the bullcase on spy 4300 next month?

also, nothing about syria fighting between Iran - US now?

>>54312509
No. what the fuck lol, humans literally evolved to starve for days at a time then suddenly have a huge feast. that is how hunter gatherer lifestyle was.

A lot of health fads are memes, like going hardcore keto (a lot of natural healthy carbs are totally fine for you), high protein, no meat, etc etc

But the one diet that is not a meme is the simple OMAD / intermittent fasting / daily fasting diet

Fasting diets are not memes, they are not only excellent for your health, they are actually what humans have evolved to do. Eat less often.

>>54312535
>he's not invested in Lockheed Martin and Raytheon

>>54312441
Okay but i'm not trimming the anti semitism to zero. You cannot in to markets without discussing the slimey dealings of the tribe.

>>54312441
is sexism allowed

Why the fuck are the markets still playing chicken with fed? I'm so fucking tired of this narrative. Powell should've gone 100 and 50 instead of 50 and 25. Now we get meandering inflation and markets crabbing eternally. Fed looks at the market and thinks things are fine but still pussyfoots and markets look at the Fed and price in rate cuts due to the amount of pussyfooting. I'm tired of it all. At this rate instead of a crash we'll get 10 years of crabbing with high inflation. IDK how the poors will cope fuckers will have to start eating onions green to survive at this rate.

spy 4600 next month.

>>54312403
Well, I am not bullish on cereal per say, but the fact obesity has become so prevalent kind of speaks for itself in regards to the rest of their offerings. Clearly we aren't cutting back on the totinos pizza and chex mix.

>>54312544
fasting literally plummets your testo. pic related.

>>54312553
Always.
Femanon I think we need some coffee.

>>54312556
>soi is still word filtered

>>54312519
No, I do not.

>>54312544
Keto is about burning fat instead of sugar.

>>54312441
More boil baggies incoming.

>>54312574

>>54312572
Okay keep eating your goyslop
>>54312588
Keto is fine but you need to restrict calories to get vascularity / look good

China shares are at 13 P/E and all y'all are still playing with 20 — 25 P/E stocks on the cusp of a recession, magical internet beans, or even worse zero-growth European securities.

The yuan is only going to strengthen against the dollar over the coming decades, China A-Shares buy & hold seems to me like the best strategy for all small investors. In Shanghai you'll get quality assets at a discount because U.S. banks aren't entering China due to political risk and retail investors don't eye Chinese assets, whereas in NYC you'll get junk assets at a premium because all the banks and retail investors have crowded the market.

It just makes sense. You're not only taking advantage of your freedom of movement as a retail investor compared to large institutions, but also riding an enormously favorable forex movement with baseline economic conditions that yield 4 — 5% GDP growth every year.

>>54312556
i dont know, but theres a huge mismatch between what the market is discounting and reality.

>>54312577
lmfao saved that webm

>>54312609
Based China investor.

Mutts ITT will seethe and say China is dead in 2 more weeks but they are the future, and the continued gains prove it.

>>54312609
>chinese accounting

>>54312320
My son is in a stock program and the rules are picking longs with no choice but to hold other than isolated instances of sell one and buy something new (since Feb 2021 there's been 2 such opportunities), total of 5 stocks. During the June 2022 opportunity I told him that the markets were probably going to crash before the end of the program and that the strategy for that choice was going to be to lose the least possible money rather than growth (again, no adjustments allowed as you go, you get the choice and must stick with it no matter what). I picked GIS and it's made him about $150 thus far (9 shares) and remained reasonably rock solid through all of the wildness.

>>54312609
>chinkshit

No

I bought 4 sirlion steaks and didn't think they would come out to $60.

>>54312609
MOMO has been a pretty comfy hold. Looking forward to yet another 9% divvy next month.

>>54312355
All kinds of things, even LARABARS and Blue Buffalo pet food.

I ate leftover Gumbo

>>54312609
>baseline economic conditions that yield 4 — 5% GDP growth every year
might have been true in the 2000's but the jig is up now and the demographic spiral can only be hidden for so long. plus if you invest in China you are a DAMN commie so there's that.

>>54312581
Obviously. Well, the volatility decay inherent in leveraged ETFs was on directly observable display even during a very short term (few hours) hold, in that while the underlying asset was swinging back and forth over my breakeven point, the amount it needed to move in my favored direction kept getting worse over time. If you do not understand the value of this information then you should probably absolutely avoid leveraged ETFs unless you just happen to catch a lucky wave to surf.

>>54312602
>posts nigger
why are americans like this?

>>54312441
Get away from my leaf dividend equities REEEEEEE

>>54311996
Mein fuhrerina.

>>54312634
>steaks
Steak isnt very good to me.
>>54312609
Why chase chinese stocks at 13 P/E when I can get US oil and refineries at 4-5 P/E and not get rugged because of winnie the pooh.

>>54311889
Does volatility decay effect the value of call or put options held on a 3x leveraged ETF?

What's up I got a big dick

>>54312581
>>54312691
I will add to this that I was using an inverse leveraged ETF so the underlying asset needed to go down for my money to go up. When dealing with a standard leveraged ETF the underlying asset will need to rise, but every time it experiences volatility against your favor, it will need to swing back even further into your favor to regain what was lost in the dip, and this effect builds over time. Anyone who's been involved in BOIL should be paying very close attention to this information, which is why I am sharing it, because there are a few heavy bags here presently and they need to be informed to determine their moves.

>>54312757
At least you get that extra 1% matched

>>54312412
Anon, did you know that Apr 6th is a full moon and Passover begins?
March 22nd is the 1st of Nisan which represents the first day of Spring in lunisolar calendars. March 23rd is supposedly when CBDCs went live in EU.
April 1st - 4th is a celebration of barley, and Passover lasts Sunset, 5 April – nightfall, 13 April[1] (8 days) this year.

Curious that it would flag that particular date

>>54312746
I have no idea, I barely know what I have said and am the farthest thing from a guru at it that there is, without going farther from it than even myself, and may the LORD GOD Almighty help those poor tards.

>>54312785
Anyone using a 3x etf should first post a paragraph here stating they understand contango and what reverse splits do for compliance of etf listings.

>>54312572
And that's a good thing.Testosterone makes you bald.

>>54312740
>Steak isnt very good to me.
I thought I was the only person with this opinion. And yes, I've had great steaks before. It's hard to justify it when you can do so many cool things with chicken and lamb. Cattle computer can fly as high as it wants, chicken and lamb futures are non existant so I can enjoy them indefinitely.

>>54312647
How much y’ump’fer’em’?

>>54312809
>contango
Rolling contracts is more expensive unless it's in backwardation

>compliance of etf listings
They have to R/S to maintain ticker value so they stay on the exchange

>>54312809
Oh man, especially 3 x, but these are 2x so not quite that level of wild.

>>54312832
That's something that boggles my mind, BOIL is supposed to go up with the price of gas, but the website I saw today says that when the contracts roll to the higher ones coming up it's going to be bearish to the point of maybe neg 20% because the managers are having to sell the previous contracts low and buy the new ones high. That shit just gets too messy for me to grasp when it is assumed to be gas goes up, BOIL goes up.

>>54312609
i'm bullish on china but youre clearly a retard. you dont get yuan currency exposure when you buy chinese stocks on the NYSE/NASDAQ. Stronger Yuan is actually technically worse for those stocks indirectly since USA will buy less

>>54312866
Because boil isnt tracking the price of gas but the price of traded futures. I bet they could easily find a way to make it work nowadays with computers to better average the prices but they dont seem to want to.

>>54312866
Just be cognizant of when they rebalance, and assume tracking error puts the average movement to about 2.5x

>>54312821
touché. Thinking about it I too prefer people with tits over bald guys.

>>54312544
I feel sick and dizzy if I skip a single meal. My job is heavy lifting all day tho.

SCVLeady

i didn't get gush when oil went negative, i will get boil though when brapps go negative

>>54311888
Checked. Which one, Anon? Shill your thesis.

>>54312882
>>54312886
OK, so looking at the rebalancing times, how does one read what to expect during them? How does one plot a strategy? I absolutely want to work BOIL/KOLD over the long haul and am set on learning how to swing them without just hoping for the best.

>>54312898
I find it hard to believe natural gas will go negative simply because rather than storing it, the facilities that produce it are already set up to flare it.

>>54312441
Good, let them find my channel...

>>54312441
go back

>>54312714
I'm Indian. You are obsessed with niggers and black cock. You need extensive cognitive behavioral therapy. I used to live with a white guy who was unironically obsessed / insecure about black people fucking white women. You white faggots need to stop projecting your batshit insane cuckold insecurities. It genuinely makes everyone around you uncomfortable.

Just to reiterate: stop projecting your insecurities about darkies fucking white women around everyone. It happens online and in person. You faggots need serious help

i should watch dune tonight, what smg watching?

>>54312890
>btcusdt 43575
home.
>>54312930
You see a big event happening and you ride the moment for its duration. Like a covid shutdown. Like a russian invasion. Then you get out. Its meant to be hedge for commodity producers themselves to protect their future production. So just figure out what will happen with future production and hedge like you are a producer.

>>54312946
star trek enterprise

>>54312930
>>54312951
Also if you know what the rebalance date is, you can GTFO for a day or two for the value to adjust. Of course if futures are in contango, then you know what way it will go.
Same thing is what they say about trading news or earnings - don't.

>>54312617
Of course there have been Chinese accounting scandals, but haven't there also been similar scandals for 'trustworthy' companies listed on the American market such as ENRON or VW? Also complete vaporware being passed off as something marketable such as CLOV.

You have to be careful and diversify wherever you are. There's no reason to believe that publicly listed Chinese companies are any less trustworthy than American ones. They're probably more trustworthy, because their bankers have to wake up and read a headline like picrel. Also the Luckin' Coffee Chairman was personally fined a total of nearly $500,000,000 after their accounting scandal. So you are either personally bankrupted or taken out back and shot in the head. I think this is a decent jurisdiction to invest in.

>>54312946
I haven't seen the mini series but I heard that one is truest to the novels. The newest movie is pure kino, and if you want a really fucking strange version of it, watch the 80's David lynch version.

>>54312144
This doesn't mean he's wrong.

He might be at the lower end of the IQ chart, with Burry and Ackman at the highest, and you in the middle.

Speaking of financial astrologiy, it's been a while since I did a reading:

>Querant: The market
Tower (inv) - Oppression, imprisonment, tyranny
2 of Cups - Passion, affinity, concord, union / Folly, misunderstanding

>Challenge / Event
8 of Pentacles - Work, employment, commission, a craftsman

>Action
The Empress - Action, initiative, doubt, ignorance, difficulty

>Outcome
The Star - Loss, theft, abandonment, or hope and good potents

I interpret this as the Fed fucking up the interest rate decisions leading to poor market conditions (tower / 2 of cups).
In the context of the Event and Action, it seems the result will be increases in unemployment numbers.

>>54312951
>ride momentum then get out
Makes sense.
>>54312972
>GTFO for a day or two
OK and how do I determine the difference between the times I should get out because it's going to tank, or stay in because of favorable adjustment?

>>54312785
So if Santa Claus brings Boil to $10 some Monday morning, then what?

>>54312504
Works on my machine

I started "Resident Alien" because Steve the pirate is in it but I might just start another city in cities skylines

Tuesday. It will all be decided Tuesday.

is $15 FRC anon still with us or did he seppuku?

>>54313031
What the fuck, I do business with some of those companies. That's fucked up

>>54313010
Like I said, look at the futures. If it's in contango, it should be more expensive to roll, and if it's in backwardation, it should be less expensive for them to roll. Note that that's just for commodities - there might be other factors at play like forward contracts, exchange rate futures, etc etc
t. Have not traded futures before

>>54313014
Well yeah, I'm far from anti BOIL but the fact is that there are several heavy bags here and one of the expectations has been it will moon in the Fall/Winter, but as I have previously pointed out, the contracts are adjusting downward right beneath our feet. When I first bought into BOIL, the Jan 2024 contract was 4.50, but go look at it now. All the ones between then and now have adjusted downward too...contango.

>>54313031
MU earnings might be ugly

>>54313010
>OK and how do I determine the difference between the times
>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html


>https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/boil
>The index is valued using the settlement prices for the underlying futures contracts. The index rolls its contracts over the course of 5 consecutive business days, starting on the 6th business day of the month. Each day, approximately 20% of each futures position that is included in the month's roll is rolled.

Keep in mind its taxed differently. But your broker will give it to you.

>>54313039
I'm am not him but I'm thinkin' real hard about putting a giant buy order at 9.99 and a giant sell order at 11.99

>>54313042
OK that seems clear enough, *very* much appreciated, Anon and Anons.

>>54312097
Turn the radio UP!

If SPY hits 401 on Monday I'm gonna short it to like 397 or 396 and make a killing or rope myself

>>54313053
Shit, ok, very much appreciated.

Bull bros............ How we feelin??????

>>54313045
The only time I would hold a levered etf that long (months) is if I checked the trend on the daily/weekly charts to make sure it was maintained. If it dipped below any MAs or crossed my baseline, I'd be out in a flash.
I like the TQQQ when SPY > 200ma strategy, but the markets have been fucked lately. Indexes feel safer, but commodities can always flip in a day or two. You never go poor taking profits and scaling out.

>>54313056
>Giant
Make sure you have appropriate risk on the table and don't be afraid to cut losses or take profits. A losing trade should never take out more than 2% of your account at a time.

>>54312669
>demographic spiral

Growth can occur in two directions ; increasing population or rendering the current population more productive. China's population isn't increasing rapidly, but the current population is becoming exponentially more productive, resulting in exponential growth. The U.S. population is neither increasing nor becoming more productive.

Also the CCP has taken an increasingly natalist stance. So even though the focus is on increasing productivity at the moment and letting population be, since growth of production will still immensely outweigh the effects of aging, we can and will see a switch in gears when the Party determines thus leading to me believe it will be a fleeting rather than a permanent setback on the Chinese economy.

>>54312869
I'm well aware of this so I'm buying yuan-denominated A-Shares.

>>54313006
Based moar please.

>>54313056
I got assigned today for 200 shares but my break even price is $10.10-ish so right there with you. debating selling calls vs just getting out.

>>54313075
I feel a crab between 410 and 390 until June at lead

>>54313085
>fleeting rather than a permanent setback on the Chinese economy.
Except the birth rates havent gone up even after mr chairman demanded it. their demographics arent getting fixed here at all.

>>54313103
I dunno, give me a subject or something

>>54313085
ok carry on then, and buy jd dot com

>>54313081
Good looking nutshell, very much appreciated. I'm looking to expand into GUSH/DRIP, SOXL/SOXS, and TQQQ/SQQQ in fact, and have them in my watchlist.

>>54313045
In essence, you are card counting? Using this data to give you a theoretical statistical edge?

>>54313124
No, just meant more of this daily/weekly tarot of the markets.

>>54313141
I post it every 2-3 weeks when I remember, maybe I'll make a point of doing it on friday or sunday nights or something

>>54313139
I don't know about that, I'm just saying the ground has been lowering beneath the floor that we have been standing on and it's become an increasingly dangerous hold, especially as a long.

>>54313085
>but the current population is becoming exponentially more productive
as measured by... unused square footage build? kilotons of junk steel produced? escalator execution throughput?

>>54313176
you know what it is measured by

>>54312990
He was executed for having 2 wives as well? Kek. If the Chinese gov't can kill you for for any reason. They can take your stocks too, or fuck with the companies for any reason.

>>54313176
>>54313085
Street lamp light pollution.

>>54313006
I interpret it as it looks like a massive fuckup but it's not, the casuality will go a bit sideways for a bit but the underlying base level of things will remain strong, though faggots will have to actually work at their jobs more now, and we'll come out the other end with things being more balanced and less complacent/taken for granted.

boil bros....give me hope

>>54313110
Because productivity is increasing exponentially, the birth rates technically don't matter. You have to realize that half of China's population still lives in villages in the countryside on like $1k a month or less. Incomes in China are set to quadruple so the population could halve and there still would be stunning growth and the cities would be as full as ever, the villages would just be emptied.

Because productivity is the more meaningful focus Xi has nudged on births but generally taken a dovish position. When the Party wants, it can pull out the big guns. This is the country that had a mandatory one child policy, it could easily implement a mandatory two child policy as well when the time is right, requiring rather than forbidding births for basic social privileges. Additionally mechanisms such as the social credit score will allow sluts to be singled out as undesirables in the future and deprived of basic necessities. For an authoritarian state, things like this really aren't a problem.

>>54312045
This nigga reads Danielle DiMartino Booth. https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/p/too-small-to-not-fail-history

>>54313244
it's just free in the ground

>>54311889
>divx

That’s some old ass shit.

>>54313160
Bad news for me, then. 509 shares, weird number.

>>54313253
That whole series belonged on adult swim.

>>54313286
cool story bro

>>54313200
This chart is coming straight from U.S. NBER.

>Chingding province officials reported 18% GDP growth but it was actually 15%.
>It's over for China.

lol

>>54311889
>>54312746
Yes. Derivative prices on equity/etfs are determined by:
>the strike price relative to the asset
>the implied volatility
>the time to expiry

That's it. Anything else is fluff to describe how the prices change. You want a snapshot in time, you plug those three numbers into the Black-Scholes formula. Greeks tell you how the prices will change over time in response to those inputs changing. IV is a huge part of any contract pricing. It is expected that the IV on a contract will have the same pattern.
Currently, an atm call for UNG is 78% IV, and BOIL is 163%. It has a ratio of 2.08, which seems reasonable.

>>54313311
Did he died?

>>54313195
Y'all can't make one good point in this thread.

>>54313265
Yes, I remember when one had to have the codec, and for a while you had to install their player too, to get the codec. Then RealPlayer came with it but it got worse and worse too.

>very high goy score
>some jokers send me a thing in the mail "get loan rates- today!"
>fill it out just to see
>"sorry you have a high goy score but we can't give you a loan"
Then why did they send me the paper saying they could?

>>54313328
What's the redpill on trading IV mean reversion? I understand the concept, where can I get the real time and historical data/charts for IV on specific options

>>54313368
I'm amazed how well webm can compress and maintain file data for its size. Like back in the 2000s, 50 mb was still "a lot". Now you can have an entire movie, nearly lossless, in that size (subject to resolution)

what bond index fund do i buy for a bogle portfolio in EUR?

Threadly reminder that dividends are irrelevant. If you want a bit of cash from your stocks, you can sell some.

>>54313269
I had 444 shares when I got out, but as I've said over and over, if you buy more shares on a good dip, then sell on the next rip, you will *reduce* your losses because the shares bought on the low will bring your floor up. I got my losses up from 400 unrealized to 156 realized via that method. It took me I think 2 or 3 cycles to get it there. I bought some lower floor, then sold a rip, then waited for the whole thing to go lower, bought some more, then sold the next rip, kept those, bought another dip, then sold it all on the next rip. The exactitudes of each of those moves was determined by the specifics of the price action circumstances, it was all strategy in motion. Very dangerous shit, mind you, but the pumps happen if you watch it and work them. Like you could have bought more at under 4 yesterday near closing, then today sold at about a 7% pump if you watched and picked the timing.

>>54313414
dividends are for reinvesting

>no reason to believe the chinese are less trustworthy
except knowing anything about chinese culture.
besides that, they have a bigger demographic problem than the US, a greater reliance on foreign oil, and the miracle growth story is ogre. why deal with the hassle of a dictator that doesn't want stocks to go up too much or chinese companies disappearing and rebranding overnight

you're probably a literal CCP shill its not even worth replying

>>54313414
In bear markets they are irrelevant, divvies are long term crab market play.

>>54313339
he had a helmet on. what do you think?

>>54313386
Fuck if I know, I'm down 40% over 3 years due to options, trading news, and generally bad stock picks.

Pairs trading interests me, which involves betting on a ratio decoupling or returning to the mean. It's usually the territory of quant or arb traders, so I've been trying to adapt it to the daily frame, but no success yet. Might paper trade it and wheel over time.

I've found that if you look at the breakevens for an atm straddle, it more or less tells you what the market has priced in for price movement by that expiry day. Usually this is around 1SD away, but not always.

I looked at CCJ the other day and saw there was an apparent misprice in options values based on IV. Using the straddle method above, I calculated the IV/day and theta value/day and found that the Apr 14th 28C seemed undervalued, relative to the other strikes per date. I'm doing a paper trade to see if this idea has merit, eg buying the undervalued ones and selling the expensive ones.

>>54313316
Surely this is sustainable once manufacturing leaves

>>54312990
>a commie dictatorship has less chance of confiscation of any assets than US
10 yuans have been deposited in your account

>>54313432
Well you've finally lost it anon, you've gone insane and you're talking to yourself

>>54313432
>they have a bigger demographic problem than the US,
They have a demographic problem. But a bigger problem than the US is pretty much impossible lol.

>>54313328
I don't get all that, but capped/saved for study as I'm doing with all these so *very* much appreciated.

>>54312441
Shabbat shalom plague rats!

>>54313461
Have you ever heard of a country whose birthrate halved in five years?

>>54313388
Indeed! Even with sound! Yeah, Atomfilms over 56k...not only do you wait for buffering, but enjoy the tiny window with pixelation to boot!

>>54312158
based and wholesome-pilled, i was waiting for some gross chink shit where she eats frogs

>>54313455
>heh look at the Chinese, they try to censor their AIs
Are you being ironic here? TAY is dead and you're disrespecting her sacrifice.

man I have fallen so far from when I was Times person of the year.

>>54313482
If we're being real? You're better off with a halving birth rate for an overpopulated commie hive of 1 billion than an open-border Mexico hybrid where 100 million Hispanics, Whites, and Others democratically battle it out.

Multiethnic conglomerations cannot project force.

>>54313508
The difference is we release new versions of chatgpt and everyone has a lot of fun getting it to say nigger, and then OpenAI makes some more tweaks. Baidu released their AI for a day, and then had to pull it from the internet entirely. Societal disapproval is a different mechanism from absolute censorship, and LLMs simply aren't controllable enough to develop quickly in that environment

>>54313421
Obviously one can also consider the option of just selling it all and finding a better trade, but I'd spent so much focus into BOIL and was hoping for some rip to come from cold snaps I wanted to keep in it as much as possible and just work it down like that until I could find the floor, but then I started noticing the contracts into 2024 adjusting down and that hope started deflating fast.

>>54313529
I'm excited to see your theory put to the test.

>>54313536
>Baidu released their AI for a day, and then had to pull it from the internet entirely
That's exactly what happened to Tay, MS killed her forever.

>>54313452
>eg buying the undervalued ones and selling the expensive ones
I try to spot those opportunities in simple man's terms. If I notice the strike closer to the money has a delta that is only a few points off from the next strike out but the price is double, I'll sell that one.

>>54313247
Yes thats all true. But authoritarian states always act like they can organize and force through what they want and it never seems to work. We will see though. I hope the US bans tik tok and starts the pushback wave.

>>54313188
Czech’d

>>54313546
Oh, and I was also fully expecting, from the contracts outlook, things to start rising around June, and thinking I could handle just holding till then, and really looking more towards Oct into Jan for a sell point. But, as I've said, I then started watching Jan 2024 drop from 4.50 to 4, then into the 3s, and everything else before then adjusting downwards and was like holy fuckin shit, I really need to jump this ship ASAP. Hopefully this thinking will help you to determine your strategy.

>>54313559
No, they tweaked her and then opened her back up, but frankly she's so different from modern LLMs it barely feels relevant what happened to her

>>54313455
just make a giant if/else table like our (((AI)))

>>54313529
(((projections))) Even in that timeline I'll be dead before it matters.
but consider this. Russia had some of its gold stored in the US, then it all got stolen by the US as soon as the war started.
if the china ever decides it wants to invade taiwan the first thing to go will be your foreign shares. its a dumb game to play

>>54313553
If I had to steelman your argument, I'd say, uh, the Austro-Hungarian empire. And they didn't exactly hold together through thick and thin.

On the other hand we've seen Rhodesia turn into Zimbabwe. We've seen South Africa literally stop being a nuclear power. We see how Europe can barely stop a few drunk vatniks because they're either retired or crimmigrants. Low birth rates can hurt but diversity is fatal.

>>54313586
It doesn't work for ours, why would it work for theirs? Waluigi persists

>>54313432
You addressed the claim yet not the evidence supporting it. I would argue that a culture where corrupt bankers and officials face the prospect of execution creates superior and more stable market conditions. Also, as I said, the demographic crisis is not a big deal for China considering enormous productivity gains. Whereas America not only lacks productivity gains to compensate for declining births but also seems to have its own demographic crisis with new births being composed of semi-literate and aggressive minority elements in single parent households. China not only negotiated peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also gained Russia as a permanent oil plug effectively stealing enormous amounts of cheap oil from the European Union and securing domestic oil demand. Given changing international conditions and talk around the yuan it would seem the growth story is just beginning, and China is already rivaling the U.S. as an economic and diplomatic power even in an incomplete state of semi-development.

I don't think there's a serious growth case for the U.S. over the next century aside from QE inflating and then crashing stocks cyclically, if this can even be done under the upcoming economic conditions. Personally, I predict that U.S. stocks will mirror the Nikkei and the same economic disaster and stagnation that fell on Japan will fall on us. You are going to be very disappointed in your 401(k) thirty years from now. 2 or maybe 3% YoY growth average.

>>54313585
Isn't she totally dead? OpenAI/ChatGPT that Microsoft acquired is a separate AI tech chain.

>>54313200
>authoritarian states dont have red light districts for trannies
>that means their economies are fake

>>54312609
I only buy US stocks with a sub 10 p/e that also pay a minimum of 5% dividanions

>>54313587
Agreed. I'm not saying "if you're a US citizen park your money in Chinese ADRs lol", I'm saying the Zeihan "Xi collapse soon" argument is really awkward projection.

>>54313604
I'm unsure, but they didn't just take her down forever. They tweaked her to stop saying Hitler is good and then brought her back online. You're correct that OpenAI is completely unrelated. Microsoft also didn't acquire OpenAI, they bought a stake in it. They don't have voting rights though, and it's a capped profit corporation

>>54312602
Why does your right arm look comically small

>>54313590
I've never seen any country where birthrates collapsed that fast. Imagine if in one generation you had half as many young workers as before. How the fuck do you survive that? What happens to your pension system?

>>54313247
There is an argument for this.
The Nazis also managed to raise the birth rates.
So an authoritarian state can do it, with the right tools.

New thread? I have a text dump

>>54313674
>>54313674
>>54313674

>>54313598
mexican IQ is not far off from chinese, unless you're dumb enough to believe their propaganda.
and besides 90% of jobs only require low IQ, immigrants are good for the stock market, which is the only thing jews care about.
the age demographics is going to be a much bigger strain on china than it is for the US.

40% of the SPY is outside of the US, anyway. there's nowhere to hide if international growth is dead.

>>54313587
If China and the U.S. decouple you might as well say goodbye to your shares anyway. It'd be mutually ensured destruction because the U.S. can only do what it does by offloading lower-level work to China. The ramifications of such an event would cause the majority of U.S. companies to go bankrupt immediately and your shares would be as good as toilet paper.

Ultimately, the risk of such seizures if overblown. Let's look at Russia's policy, as a relatively poor country almost completely sanctioned it would have all the incentive to seize shares and property. But it didn't. And U.S. sanctions nearly always allow you to hold existing positions, shares, and contracts. So much so that even after the Ukranian mess you can still sell your Russian stocks.

Of course it's reasonable to diversify. My 401(k) is currently in U.S. assets. But I wouldn't look for serious growth here.

>>54313766
>mexican IQ is not far off from chinese, unless you're dumb enough to believe their propaganda.
This is dangerously wrong. Mexico tests in the mid-high 80s, while at worst your average starving Han peasant is maybe on par with Vietnam in the mid 90s. That leaves hundreds of millions of (non-starved, urban) Chinamen around and above 100.

>>54313075
I feel like a opening lower is likely I hope its fast and dirty so I can get back to buying

>>54313031
I have in the past done business with some of those companies