/biz/ - Business & Finance

seven times

>>5426438

Until I’m rich nigga

>>5426438

Roll again and again and again and again and again and again and etc.

It's never enough anon.

I'd prob play like 15 times desu

>>5426438
until i lose everything

>>5426438
5 times is enough

>>5426438
Just take the 100k and go all in on coss

I would stop at 3.2m

>>5426438
10 times because it then becomes 50/50 if I win or not and that is just too risky

>>5426438
Once

>>5426438
>diminishing return

If you double your money every time that isn't diminishing, that's exponential

>>5426510

Your E(V) is then 0.

>>5426466

Your odds of reaching 1.6MM USD is 0.95^4 = 81.4%.

Your odds of losing that 1.6MM USD before you reached your final target of 12.8MM USD is 15%. So my question now is, if you had 1MM USD and were given the chance to roll a 7 sided die where you'd 10x your money unless you rolled a 1, in which case you'd lose the 1MM. Would you take it?

Obviously you would stop at 19 since the 20th side is 1

>>5426438
0. I have better investments in mind than a possible 100% return with 5% chance of 100% loss. Honestly even putting it all in a random ICO would be a better investment. 100% is nothing now that we have crypto. Nothing.

>>5426570
t:turbobrainlet

Roll 0 times and attempt to kill genie.

He cheats and is also a demon.

>>5426570
Do people really think like this?

Yeah I'd personally just use some basic stats and probability to calculate an appropriate level of risk.

If you roll it 4 times, that's already down to an 81% chance of missing the 1 on all four. EV calculations will always say roll, but $1.6 million would be enough to get me where I need to be

>>5426599
kek

>>5426570
holy shit dude.

>>5426570
Your grasp of statistics make me kek

>>5426438
You should expect it to take you 20 tries before landing on the 1. There is a ~65% chance of landing on a 1 once or more if you roll 20 times. I personally would roll 7 times to be extra safe. still end up with over 10 million.

10 times.

>>5426580

Exponential return of money, diminishing return on quality of life. The quality of life of someone with 10MM USD is closed to the QOL of a billionaire than it is to a homeless pajeet.

>>5426570

So you have the chance to walk away with 12.8MM USD, but you roll three more times?

>>5426602

But can they yield a 100% return five times consecutively?

>>5426635

There are no stats and probability to determine an appropriate response, see; Petersburg lottery, because the odds are weighed in your favour statistically it is favourable to play infinitely. The real question is a subjective question of when risking all your money is no longer enough to justify 2x-ing it.

won't stop. the game won't end after you rolled 1.

>>5426599
This desu

>>5426677

Yeah but you'll be left doubling 0, kek.

>>5426438
I use Detect Evil and ready an action; if it pings, charging smite.

>>5426570
omg

OMG

IM LEAVING THIS BOARD MARIE!

>>5426690
doesn't say you can't put your own money in

>>5426438
i take 100k and put it in crypto.

Lets play a game /fit/

Roll?

>>5426749
roll

I hit an amount of money where it's inconvenient to keep going or I lose.

>>5426734

>Odds of this genie 16x-ing your money: 0.95^4 = 81.4%

Do you really think you have better odds on crypto?

>>5426749
roll

>>5426509
Even your ID is black

>>5426761
>>5426772

Sorry anons

>>5426438
me i would walk away with the 100k because if you roll a 1 you lose everything. it's a 50/50, either you win or lose, not taking those odds

>>5426808

Trolling.

>>5426672
>But can they yield a 100% return five times consecutively?

If you put it in link they can.

>>5426715
>>5426672
>>5426663
>>5426659
>>5426656
>>5426633
>>5426608
People still fall for this?

Hide your half of your money in Monero, then you roll with your remaining money. If you win, hide that half again and keep doing it.

You play it exactly once. The 100k you didn't have, so risk is 0%. If you manage to double it, boom instant 200k. Rolling again is then a risk of 100% because you can lose it all, even though you didn't have it.

my "lucky" attribute allows me to reroll any natural 1 on a d20 once per turn so I would play this game until I have to use my power and then I'd play just one more time to tempt fate. I'm a halfling rogue btw

>>5426772
>
Do you really think you have better odds on crypto?
i have 0% chance of losing it all in crypto, it will always cost SOMETHING and i'm sure one day it will fully recover so i'll just need to hodl.

>>5426438
4 times

Good Thread op

>>5426570
uhhhh

>>5426580
oh my god

4. A mill is enough

>>5426867

>0% chance of losing it all in crypto, it will always cost SOMETHING

>>5426570
nice Monte Carlo brainlet

>>5426996
it will, even if it's 0.000001$ that's still something. even scam coins like confido are still worth something, hell confido even seen some small pump recently lol.

>>5426438

I will take the $100K because I am not so mentally retarded as to not be happy with free $100K.

Also, it is a genie, shady motherfucker who thrives on subverting wishes, dice rolling is not truly random and HE will be the one doing the rolling.

There is a 51% chance of you never rolling a 1 if you roll 13 times.

20 times.

>>5427034

>A genie offers you a 85% chance to make 1MM USD, but with a 15% chance of making 0.
>This is a worse choice than some shitcoin because the shitcoin can't go to 0, it will be worth some infinitesimally larger amount than 0.
>Using the absolute lower bound of an risk to evaluate the relative profitability of that risk.

>>5427098
you only have a 35% chance of success.

i take the 100k and tell him to fuck off

5 times

that oughta do me for the rest of my days

>>5426438
I've played enough D&D to know that I'll probably get a 1 on the first roll

However since there is absolutely no risk to losing I ride that bitch until I'm either the richest man on the planet or broke.

>>5426438
Play until I lose, can't walk away from the table on a winning streak. Every gambler knows that.

>>5426905
81% chance of success.

>>5427120
my shitcoins will recover, genie's money will evaporate, this is a crucial difference. if you think this market won't recover, you are like those idiots who thought internet won't recover after dot-com bubble. i get your stupid analogy, but that's not how crypto works, it's not a gamble, unless you see it as a one, i.e. idiots who took mortgages to buy btc ath without knowing jack shit about crypto.

We should pump GENIECOIN next.

>>5426608
>>5426633
>>5426659
>>5426715

baited by a troll

btw to all the people doing these calculations - the probability changes as you play the game and more knowledge gets revealed to u (Bayes). I.e. if you win 20 times, then you have a 95% chance of winning 21 times, but if you have won 0 times, then there is a (0.95)^21 chance you'll win 21 times. Also I'd play to about 600k cos after that point money really loses most of its utility (got a house and food, meh what more do you need).

>>5426570
America everybody

>>5426438
Zero times. Right now I'm on the border of being able to make a down-payment on a good house, $100k means I can do it safely.

>>5426438
I'll just retire

>>5426596
I'd roll it yeah.

Its a genie you fucking idiots. If you decide to roll the die youve already lost

>>5427235

But you could still walk away with 1MM USD and put that into crypto.

>>5427203
>>5427203
>House money fallacy

>>5426438
Lets say that my net worth is 1,6 million
It would take me 4 throws to double my net worth through this game.
The next throw I'd increase my net worth with either 50% or or decrease by 50.
However on a log chart these are not the same. You need about 1,7 times a 50% increase to recover from the 50% loss. Whereas if you quit you only need to find another means that gives you a 50% ROI once.
But the odds are 19 to 1 so we throw a fifth time.
Next up I can either increase my wealth with 66,6% or lose 66,6%. I need to find an ROI of 66,6% 2,15 times to recoup my losses. Still throw.
Next up, win 80% or lose 80% (divide by five. In short I'd stop when ln(gains/losses) > 19 (gains = 1,8; losses = 5 in this latest example)

>>5427488
>But you could still walk away with 1MM USD and put that into crypto.
i'm not taking that risk, 100k is enough and after i double my money in crypto i can take something off the table, i doubt genie would let me do that.

For the brainlets out there
roll 1 time 95% chance of winning
roll 2 times 90% chance of winning
roll 3 times 86% chance of winning
roll 4 times 81% chance of winning
roll 5 times 77% chance of winning
roll 6 times 74% chance of winning
roll 7 times 70% chance of winning
roll 8 times 66% chance of winning
roll 9 times 63% chance of winning
roll 10 times 60% chance of winning
roll 11 times 57% chance of winning
roll 12 times 54% chance of winning
roll 13 times 51% chance of winning
roll 14 times 49% chance of winning
roll 15 times 46% chance of winning
roll 16 times 44% chance of winning
roll 17 times 42% chance of winning
roll 18 times 40% chance of winning
roll 19 times 38% chance of winning
roll 20 times 36% chance of winning

>>5427493

People like you are looking at the question from a rational point of view when the root of the question is actually an emotional one. At what level of wealth are you sufficiently content that the pain of losing that wealth exceeds the euphoria of doubling said wealth by 5:1.

In other words if you had 10MM would you feel 5x worse losing it then winning another 10MM would make you feel good?

I think for me the true value lies around 5MM, I'd be 100x more devastated at losing my 5MM then I would be happy gaining another 5MM.

Once but that would be the one time a 1 comes up

>>5427567

Has anyone ever tested this? As in rolled 100 dice 20 times each simultaneously

>>5427384
>Its a genie you fucking idiots.

>>5426438
3-5 times unless I had a better risk reward investment for my 100k. I would probably invest in crypto desu. A risk of 0 is worse than the crypto risk plus I don’t mind waiting 2 years for gains.

It is only money at the end of the day, I’m not greedy and don’t need it to be happy but it is useful. I am mostly in crypto to be part of reclaiming the ‘wealth’ and power back from the corporations and giving it back to the individual.

Centralised crypto is cancer.

>>5426438
Fuck you cheating genie.

little graph

fucking retards, its a 1/20 every time
a die dont remember what its previous roll was.

2nd roll

>people saying they'd roll upwards of 10

>>5427959

The chance that a 1 has been rolled increases with each roll

Six

>>5427967
Stay jelly, poorfag.
>thanks the genie for my $104 Trillion
>gets ready to buy a small country to turn into a white ethnostate
>hires the Rothchilds to be my gardeners
>Soros is my caddy
>realize too late the genie never specified the currency
>get $104T in Zimbabewbux
>sell it on ebay for $50
>invest that $50 in shitcoins
>have $15 by the end of the year

>>5427959
>doesn't know the basics of probability

>>5426438
lmao just roll that shit 19 times
guarante'd 52 billion fortune

Roll once then good. 200k is all I need.

5 times

>>5426438
Let X = "one diceroll"
E(X) = 1/20 * -1 * (current amount of money) + 19/20 * (current amount of money)

I expect to gain +90% with each roll
I will roll forever

>>5428799

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox

>>5426570
read a stats book

>>5426570

>the current state of /biz/

I'd roll 10 times, this isn't money I had before and I'm not actually losing anything, just potentially getting a shit load of it.

>>5428012
no it doesn't retard, it stays the same

>>5426438
>A genie offers you 100k, then offers you the chance to play the following game: he rolls a 20 sided die, any side except 1 and you double your money, roll a 1 and you lose all the money.

not even playing nigga

that's like asking if I'm cool crossing a road if there's a 5% chance of me dying.

>>5426438
I take the 100k and go in index funds
After working another 5-10 years I expect about 10% yearly return from my now 200k worth stocks amd savings, so I live from the 20k interest each year.

>>5426438

20 times for 15% chance at 10 trillion dollars, 85% chance nothing

>>5430129
o sry 104 billion not 10 trillion

>>5426772
>Do you really think you have better odds on crypto?

its almost the same odds the genie just takes out the work of charting.

If I only day trade when I have a 4:1 risk reward and greater with 10-40% possible gains on the table and a stop loss at 1-5% my buy and repeat that over and over again I think the gains would be more consistent. If you add in swing trading 2x and 4x possibility with a 0.75x stop loss you will beat the genie over infinite trades because your risk is much lower and you only stand to lose fraction at anytime.

I'm not sure if I would even consider it gambling if you treat it as work and not a game. You literally can not "lose" if you set your limits properly. Breaking even aka losing potential becomes your new metric for loss.

Mathematically speaking, I don’t know anything about probability as it applies to rolling a d20. But I’m just curious, rolling the dice subsequent times doesn’t inherently change the odds of you getting any particular number. The d20 doesn’t “know” it hasn’t hit a one yet... I mean can someone explain to me why you wouldn’t roll infinitely with odds that good? In a vacuum your odds of rolling a 1 would always be 5% right?

>>5426438
Probably about 150 times desu.
And if I won, all in on bitbean.

>>5430880
How many bitbean could I get for 1x10^48 usd?

>>5430880
How many bitbean could I get for 1x10^48 usd?
At least half right?
I’d let you all in of course and we could enjoy the best pump of all time together

>>5430969
>Roll

>>5430731
If you roll the die once, the probability you don't roll a 1 is equal to 19/20z

If you roll the die twice, the probability you don't roll a 1 for both rolls is 19/20 *19/20. You multiply the probability of the 2nd roll being not equaling 1 by the previous probability because the result we're seeking (both rolls not equaling 1) depends on all the previous roll not equaling 1.

You can extend this way of thinking such that the probability of rolling the die n times and not rolling a 1 equals (19/20)^n

I’d for sure roll once, depending on whatever it landed on, I may roll again. Like if it landed on >15 or <5 I’d def roll again. Since the higher numbers are further away from 1, it’s less likely that the next roll will be 1. And if it was <5, well since you already rolled pretty close to 1, then the next roll will likely be a higher number.

Honestly I would take the money without rolling the dice. Comfy.

>>5430880
.07% chance I make it

>>5430731 #
If you roll the die once, the probability you don't roll a 1 is equal to 19/20.

If you roll the die twice, the probability you don't roll a 1 for both rolls is 19/20 *19/20. You multiply the probability of the 2nd roll being not equaling 1 by the previous probability because the result we're seeking (both rolls not equaling 1) depends on all the previous roll not equaling 1.

You can extend this way of thinking such that the probability of rolling the die n times and never rolling a 1 equals (19/20)^n

>>5426570

>>5430731
If you roll the die once, the probability you don't roll a 1 is equal to 19/20.

If you roll the die twice, the probability you don't roll a 1 for both rolls is 19/20 *19/20. You multiply the probability of the 2nd roll not equalling 1 by the previous probability because the result we're seeking (both rolls not equalling 1) depends on the previous rolls not equalling 1.

You can extend this line of thinking such that the probability of rolling the die n times and never rolling a 1 equals (19/20)^n

>>5426438
Really good question anon.
I would play it twice.

>>5426570
All these (You)s for obvious bait. This website is infested with newfags.

>>5431077
please nobody fall for the bait

I'd just take the 100k and leave or maybe roll it once

A genie comes to you, he offers you 4 choices -

1. He gives you 100k, no strings attatched.
2. He gives you 1 million, 10% chance of dying instantly
3. He gives you 10 million, 50% chance of dying instantly
4.He gives you 100 million, 5% chance of being killed, having your brain uploaded into an immortal robot head, unable to die, feel, see or do anything but staying "alive" for potentially millions of years.

mfw most people are really unintelligent

>>5427567
So what is more sensible way of approaching this? Because your chances reset with each successful step. You don't stack bad odds.

>Haven't rolled yet
>Odds of success on next roll is 95%
>Chance of 5 successful rolls is 77%
>Roll once
>Success
>Next success is 95% guaranteed
>Odds of getting to a fifth success are now 81%

Man I'd probably walk away with 800k bevause i'm such a pussy

>>5431774
1

>>5431861

>absolute state of /biz/

>>5427751
read a book dude

>>5427959

these are the people offering financial advice on this board

>>5429255

there were smart people here before cryptokis took over

>>5429925
What fucking index funds are you using that average a 10% yearly return?

>>5426570
Why are people giving this anon shit? He's fucking right. He may have worded it wrong but I can see exactly what point he was trying to make. If you play 10 games, then the odds are 1/2 that in at least ONE of those games you'd have lost. If you lose once, you lose it all. On the 10th game you have a 5% of losing but he's clearly saying he'll start out with the end goal of playing just 10 games.
This board is literally so brainlet that when someone intelligent comes along, its inhabitants bash them in, like fucking cavemen scared of the first fucking fire

>>5433097
Oh wait never mind, this is a Bernoulli Trials type problem. Other anon is wrong.

So..
>>5426570
It's 59.8%, boy

In a world of genies, I’d find another and wish to never roll a 1 never again. Then play the game.

>>5427751
Are you serious? This is basic math.

Roll as many times as you want, each individual roll has a 1/20 chance of rolling a 1,theoretically you could roll a million times before you ever landed on 1, or you could roll 1 ten times in a row. Each roll has a 5% chance of landing on 1. The odds of actually rolling 1 don’t increase or decrease with each successive roll, they do however, increase in a linear fashion as the total number of rolls increases. 1/20, 5/100, 50/1000 so on and so on

>>5427580
Well yeah, but it depends on your situation and whether you think you could find solething meaningfull to do with ten billion compared to ten million. I have companies i want to found, projects i'd want to fund and political policy i want to influence. So doubling makes sense for me until i'm a top 100 person.

>>5433653

Way to completely miss the point of the question, everyone here gets the maths. The question is a subjective one: what amount of money would you feel the loss would be so devestating you would not take that risk.

>>5427384
This dude gets it, don't push your luck when dealing with genies. They are tricksters by nature and you would most likely roll a 1.

I would take the 100k and split

>>5433671

Again missing the point. If you actually had 500MM USD in your bank account would you bet on doubling it if there was a 5% chance of ending up broke? Stop treating the money like some fetched abstract thing just because of the genie (house money fallacy) 500MM on the table is JUST as real as 500MM in your bank account and if I had 500MM I wouldn’t even take a 1% chance of losing it all. I’d kill myself.

A genie gives you an opportunity at becoming a millionaire and you fucking flush it down the toilet because you didn't spend 10 seconds signing up and claiming your 100 F R E E Sphere tokens, this is unironically the future of crypto lads

https://sphere.social/?ref_code=5309-2337c99d

>>5426438
I wouldn't roll it even once desu, either it falls on 1 or it doesn't and 50/50 is just too big a chance to loose 100k.

>>5433847

stop posting this horse shit in every thread. no one wants your shitty coins

>>5426438
20 times. 5% chance of landing on 1, seems like a fair risk.

>>5426438
>genie doesn't know I carry a loaded 20 sided die in case this happens
19

>>5426570
>all these niggers replying
Anon is right, deciding to take 10 turns leaves you with slightly more than 50% chance to lose it all after 10 rolls.

>>5426438
How much money does the genie have?

only 3 times
86% success rate
800k

more then enough to invest it in real estate and have a fucking great life!

>>5434115
Rolling 20 times only gives you a 35.85% probability of winning.

>>5430731
Correct but eventually you'll roll that 1. There comes a point where doubling your money won't make you happier. Personally I'd try to reach a million.