/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54241457
they will rise 200 bepis to kill any doubt and to make people who fight the Fed become poor.

imagine waiting for government crooks to decide the value of money

I thought you faggots said it was wednesday

DO IT AGAIN GERONIMO POWELL

He'll choke. JPOW prove me wrong, nigger

>>54241721
I’m all in on my Roth IRA and getting a job working in semiconductor industry or manufacturing or construction gunna max out my 401k after that, get educated, and climb the corp ladder rest of my life

>>54241760
>my life begins after weimar economy

>>54241659
google told me its tomorrow

>>54241638
God I wish, rip the band aid off

>hikes will continue until morale improves

>>54241659
>>54241799
day early?
thats bullish!

>>54241457
25 or 50 basis points and a "yeah, nah" to job losses

>>54241659
the rate decision is tomorrow, Janet Yellen will speak in 9 minutes

>>54241659
Surprise boyo

>>54241457
>continue hiking rates and kill fractional reserve banking
or
>cut rates and prove the Federal Reserve is useless in combating actual threats

Interesting times we live in lol

I'll admit it. The reason I hate these kikes so much is because I aspire to be like them

Crashing the value of your money with no survivors

>>54241940
kek same

>>54241935
it's a catch 22
we die from a crash or we die from inflation being in a short position is the only thing that makes sense here
Ether you make money on everyone else loss or money becomes worthless anyways.

>>54241940
>>54241981
to be a finance guy?
the larp

>>54241983
or you invest in crypto

>>54241983
You could also see it as a liberation from the horrors of (central) banking.

>10:01
late, this is bullish

>>54242014
nah i'll just torture you till you give me your keys

>>54242014
I just don't believe in it, I really think if it started to becomes mainstream (norimes using it daily) the government would just ban it and make there own coin
>>54242024
I agree

Here we go

>LIVE
LIVE
>LIVE
LIVE
>LIVE
LIVE
TALKING ABOUT BANKS!

wearing all black, this is bearish

she's talking, keep me posted

sounds like a pat on the back speech

The Situation is stabilizing!

>stronger than 15 years ago

kek, does she believe this shit

>>54241638
>raise it 200 bps
>print and support every bank that fails
Not sure that will work out how you think it will.

money granny making me feel safe and secure

>>54242143
Yep
>We are in complete control, strongest economy ever! Right goyim?

Looks like they arent pivoting, 50 hike tomorrow

>>54242169
She lies. That is all she has ever done.

>>54242175
Kek

>>54242192
John 8:44
“Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.”

>>54241457
Lol, sheàs reading her answers

Why do we allow a woman in this role? She doesn't know wtf she's doing. Look at her reading her little script.

Daddys back into action baby when is this shit gonna hit 0? I need to buy a new camera and microphone

>Zooooooooom
Also captcha in 1 try
U mad boomer?

>>54242261
>Why do we allow a woman in this role?
because she does what's she's told.

>>54242261
She doesn’t need to know what she’s doing. She just says and does as she’s told.

What are the chances we dump hard after this press scam

-literally- reading off of a sheet of paper

>>54242325
high.
you can't guarantee $18 trillion deposits...
people are only watching her talk because they want to figure out if 25 bps isn't enough in tomorrow's meeting, which it won't be, it'll be 50 bps.

>>54242337
"We have an economy that remains strong and vibrant"

the more they repeat strong and resilient the more i sell

>>54242382
Looks like puts are back on the menu

>>54242325
100%

Can someone pass me their notes? I missed it

>>54242371
Yeah it's pretty hilarious to watch the copium in real time

>>54242174
The banks are already failing no matter what the Fed does. At least if they raise the BPS they can fight some inflation a little bit.

>>54242075
>compliance is the only possibility

>>54242489
Short format:
>US economy and financial system are the strongest in Milky Way
>literally 30 mins of this cope and nothing else

>>54241457
that's yellen, that's the fucking treasury, the fed isn't speaking for another five hours you absolute homonculate, australopithecine, concave-foreheaded, sublinguistic automaton

>>54242553
as if there's a real difference

DESPITE HER NAME MONEY GRANNY IS NOT YELLEN I WITHDRAW MY VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT BANKING SYSTEM AND VOTE FOR TOTAL NIGGER DEATH

I’m too poor to put everything in buttcoin or boomer rocks, I have a little bit of silver though
The fuck do I do to protect myself while also not decimating my savings in case I need them?

>>54242489
EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!
EVERYTHING IS COOL WHEN YOUR PART OF A TEAM!
EVERYTHING IS AWESOME,
WHEN YOU'RE LIVING OURRR DREAM!

>>54242489
>Things are great. Better than ever in fact. If things are horrible, that’s actually a good thing.

>>54242613
Beans and rice are still cheap, so are buckets and moisture absorbers.

>>54242539
You forgot
>if congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling we are going to blame them for the entire situation

>>54242613
gold bugs never win.
btc is a good bet, but it's always volatile, so you'd almost certainly come out on top, but you might die of a stroke/heart attack along the way.
since I think CBDC's are around the corner, HBAR, the Hebrew Hashgraph, I think is the safest bet. Hail the WEF!
if you just want to store your value safely, that'd be XMR, since it's the least volatile coin that can be exchanged for real goods and services.

>>54242677
You could call that based

>>54241457
Scam pump into a dump. Play this right anons

>>54242690
Black people exist. They're not going to do a CBDC. If they do they won't be able to flaunt their cash.

>>54242795
they will do a CBDC.
they've tested it out in Nigeria, where lots of black people exist.
restricted cash withdrawls to $50 USD from ATM & $225+ in person in bank needs a declaration of intent (what you need all that cash for).
and then finally give discounts to use the digi-money instead of cash.
and it was a successful enough trial run now Australia is running an experiment.
well, pretty soon, that rolls into Europe + US, probably around 2030, based on the WEF's goals.

>>54242795
Niggers are excellent consoomers. They’ll happily accept their welfare electronically and trade something in the place of cash like metals or drugs.

>>54242174
what if they mega raised the rates, while at the same time guaranteed the *deposits*. Let the banks fail, but guarantee the deposits. The normies wouldn't give a shit if it's not them losing the money.
Where would all that new liquidity go?

>>54241457
jerome's physiognomy is based
I think he realizes that Yellen looks like a fucking retard grandma filling her pants with shit
just give us a 1500 based points increase and destroy it all

>>54242953
Where would people’s mortgages go?

>>54242953
This is what would happen in a sane society, so we have no chance of this happening.

>>54242953
hyperinflation
increased rates increases money velocity because it vacuums up cash
dumping cash on this dumpster fire just extends the problem by 3-6 months
it would also absolutely fuck everyone who uses the dollar sideways because it both exports inflation while also increasing the amount of dollars flowing into the US

>>54242978
Are burgers' mortgages really all dependent on the fed rates? Where I'm from most of the loans are fixed rate.

>>54242984
why would raising interest rates + infinity loans to banks to guarantee deposits be what would happen in a 'sane' society?
no, that's peak clown world, which is why we're doing it.

>>54243011
Most are fixed rate now.

qrd on what that kike whore said?

>>54242984
>This is what would happen in a sane society,
it's option 3, the "bad option"
securing people's deposits does nothing because it essentially just means that your bank is just he FDIC/Fed
the problem is that banks saw 0% reserve requirements and threw all of that money into absolutely fucking retarded financial instruments that ended up losing them a fuckton of money when rates went up
so not only is the cash not available on hand
it's also decreasing every day

basically if you have a bank account at this point, you have a Roth IRA that doesn't make any money
>you might be able to pull your money out at the right time, but maybe not
>oops we made a fucky wucky, your money's gone
>yeah uh any more than x amount and you gotta pay a penalty

>>54243009
>it both exports inflation while also increasing the amount of dollars flowing into the US
Dollar fuckery also encourages others to keep building an alternative. This system has been abused for decades while the abusers act as if it can work eternally.
Or they are just parasites who are killing the host before they jump to the next.

>>54243058
Everything is fine now and if it’s not it’s because of Congress>>54243053

>>54243011
they are fixed rate, but the simple dumbed down explanation is, Fed loans to banks at an interest rate.
banks loan to retail at that rate + a premium they scalp.
so a year ago, fixed rate 30 year mortgage ran like a 3%-3.5% interest rate and now are offered at 7% interest.
the higher mortgage interest rate though means fewer people are interested in purchasing and lending is tightened to only people the bank knows will actually pay, which starts a buyer's market.
if that kicks off enough, people end up underwater even though they have a low interest rate and just default and give the home to the bank.

>>54243053
google "airbnb DSCR loan"
it's the new hot hip HELOC insanity

>>54242978
>>54242984
>>54243009
>>54243053

This guy is claiming that the deposit guarantees are not actually QE or money printing, since the money for those bonds already exists and already was spent. Valuing the bonds at par does not create new money, since the fed will destroy the bond on maturity.

https://twitter.com/BackTheBunny/status/1636766538446540800

>>54243066
>the problem is that banks saw 0% reserve requirements and threw all of that money into absolutely fucking retarded financial instruments that ended up losing them a fuckton of money when rates went up
those 'absolutely fucking retarded financial instruments' are primarily treasury bonds.
you know, the 'federal debt shall not be questioned' and all that.
SVB would've been subject to stress testing on federal interest rates rising, if that part of dodd frank wasn't repealed (originally any bank with $50BB needed to stress test for interest rate hikes but it was changed to only banks with $250BB).

>>54243088
>Valuing the bonds at par does not create new money, since the fed will destroy the bond on maturity.
okay so you're telling me
>bank has a retard moment, uses the 0% reserve requirement to take all of their deposits and gamble on long term bonds
>get margin called like the retards that they are
>govt steps in and says "don't worry we'll insure everything"
>this somehow doesn't incentivize the banks to keep dumping new debt on the market, selling that debt for cash, and using that cash to buy other debt
>somehow this doesn't increase the money supply

this is just the broken window paradox but in this case, the government gives the shopkeeper free money to repair his window
GDP go up :^)

>>54243077
Ok, that makes sense, the problem is not that the mortgage payments will go up, it's that the valuations will go down.
I still don't see how can they take your home if you make the payments regularly...

>>54243162
>I still don't see how can they take your home if you make the payments regularly...
>if you make the payments
look at the 10-3 yield spread
we're like six months away from a huge fucking depression
what happens when the value of someone's home drops by $300k and they lose their job and suddenly their on the hook to either sell their home or get fucking liquidated?

>>54243162
>the problem is not that the mortgage payments will go up, it's that the valuations will go down.
yes exactly.
the mortgage goes on the banks asset sheet and buyer's market leads to a shitton of unrealized losses for the bank, which a good portion become realized losses eventually lol.
>I still don't see how can they take your home if you make the payments regularly...
As long as you continue to make payments, they can't take your home.
people stop making payments when they lose their job and then just stop paying their mortgage and live 'rent free' until 6 months later the bank kicks them out finally lol.

>>54243144
I'm not telling you that, this guy on twitter is telling you that. I'm trying to find a flaw in his logic but I'm a brainlet.
It seems to me that this has to result in new money creation, but I don't get how, because the bond is at the fed till maturity.
At the most, the delta between the par value of the bond and the market value of the bond would be the new money that is created. Is that amount really that inflationary? That money should go towards the depositors, not the banks.

>>54243202
>>54243224
Ok, I get it now, thanks anons

>>54242953
That would destroy the US bond market

>>54243245
I think the other anon's response is overly complicated, but the guy on twitter is super retarded.
here's how I would explain it
>Congress needs money
>Fed sells treasury bonds
>bank buys those bonds, funding the government
>Fed hikes interest rates
>treasury bonds end up underwater
>Fed offers to buy back the debt for 1 year
then who actually paid the government's debt?
guy on twitter can't give you any reasonable answer to that.

>>54243245
so there's two things at play here
1. people fundamentally misunderstand reserve requirements
if I give a bank 100 dollars and they have a 20% reserve requirement, how much can they turn around and lend out?
Most people say $80, because $20 in reserve is 20%
the real answer is $400, because $100 is 20% of that
money supply on fractional reserve increases nearly exponentially
2. there is no reserve requirement
banks basically just create ghost cash by lending now. there's no fundamental limit to how much anyone can lend, so it's basically limited by risk assessment at the bank and debt exposure preferences by individuals
money supply is fundamentally infinite with no reserve requirement
thus if all depositors call for physical cash, the bank actually has basically nothing on hand. They have to liquidate assets to give the depositors money. If their assets are not at maturity, liquidation of those assets actually loses them money.
that's essentially what happened with SVB
every bank is overleveraged by like 5-10X

>>54243362
>if I give a bank 100 dollars and they have a 20% reserve requirement, how much can they turn around and lend out?
>Most people say $80, because $20 in reserve is 20%
most people say that...
BECAUSE THAT'S EXACTLY HOW IT WORKS
>there is no reserve requirement
yea, that's true though.
>that's essentially what happened with SVB
misleading, they had good cash reserves but there was a bank run because SVB kicked off the orderly liquidation authority clause of dodd frank and the deposits were going to be converted into mandatory convertible preferred shares Series F offering at 5% of their cash, e.g. $1000 would be worth shares in a distressed bank with a liquidation preference of only $50.

Janet Yellen sounds like Whitey from Eight crazy nights and thats all I have to say.

>>54243088
Checked. He's correct.

>>54243299
Great explanation, but I still can't figure out which parts of this process are actually inflationary.
I thinks the most confusing part is this: if everyting went according to plan and the bond reached maturity, who pays the par value? Government or the FED?
I guess the government has to accrue the money through taxes to pay the par and no new money is created.

However, here the problem is that the government already got the money for the bond and spent it, the bank went underwater on the bond and the FED rebuys it back for par value, that money is back in circulation. But it still seems to me that the inflationary part of this process is the difference between the par and the market value of the bond. That's the new money created.

If fed didn't buy it for par value, the market would buy it for market value, thus the difference between the two is the new money created?

>>54243662
if he is, then answer >>54243299's question

>>54243082
So it's a loan on buying a rental property, or renting an airbnb property short term?

>There is $100 in the world.
>The bank buys a bond for $10.
>The government spends this $10 on roads.
>There is still $100 in the world.
>Fed rises the rates, the bond is now worth $8.
>The bank is underwater, its bond lost them $2.
>If they sell the bond on the market, they lose $2, but there is still $100 in the world.
>If they sell the bond to the FED for $10, there is now $110 dollars in the world, since the FED does not have any money, it prints money.
>When the bond reaches maturity, the FED will destroy $10 from the government and there will once again only be $100 in the world.

So the FED buying these bonds does in fact print money, but only until the bond reaches maturity.

Anons, what wrong with this logic? Seems to simple, there's gotta be some more kikery to it.

>>54243713
>If fed didn't buy it for par value, the market would buy it for market value, thus the difference between the two is the new money created?
don't overthink it.
when the fed bought back the governments debt for 1 year, they said they were funding it from premiums banks commit to the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a fund intended for stabilizing USD currency pairs, but those funds have been misappropriated back in 2008 the exact same way.
However, the point is, when they created the BTFP they said they'd fund it with $25BB from the ESF (exchange stabilization fund).
The ESF had $93BB total.
Well, the Fed's balance sheet has risen $300BB.
$300BB is 12x $25BB, or 3x $93BB, so you know those numbers don't make sense and it's just the Fed printing new cash.

>Our banking system is sound, even as it's come under some pressure 2008 was an insolvency crisis. Rather what we are seeing are contagious bank runs
How dare you withdraw from the stable and sound system!

>>54243838
so when are the said bonds mature?

It just sounds like a temporary problem with a sudden increase in money supply, no? What' the problem besides investors panicking causing unease pain to the banks?

200 benis fugg XD

>>54242847
lol completely wrong. less than 1% used the cbdc, everyone hates the gov and 30% of pop use crypto

>>54243753
it's a loan where you don't have to report your income
basically instead of verifying that you have a job, basically they just guess what your revenue will be from operating it as an airbnb, then clear you for like a $1.2m loan

>>54243957
So it's for purchase of a property you intend to rent out, got it. Thanks.

End these orcs Jerfrodo, throw the bepis into the lava. Don't let the strength of man fall again.

>>54243872
Got it, thanks. See >>54243838
Is that the problem? They said they will use the ESF funds but they printed new money.
Anytime FED buys something, unless it from a specific fund, it's money printing?

>>54243838
I'm not sure how to respond.
yes, that's close enough, but there clearly is inflation in that example.
which makes things much more complicated to value, e.g. the debt is worth 20% less, which is a headache to try to reason.
the bank also takes that money and reinvests it in other financial instruments.
basically, it took 2 years to write down $700BB on the Fed's Balance sheet and only took a couple weeks to add $300BB back to it.

>>54244048
Thanks anon

>>54244021
>They said they will use the ESF funds but they printed new money.
I can't say that for certain because things are moving too fast, but their explanations of funding don't make any sense. So I strongly *suspect* they're printing, but I can't really say, you know, without a doubt, that's what's happening.
>Anytime FED buys something, unless it from a specific fund, it's money printing?
there are many different ways they can phrase it, but basically yea.

>>54243941
exactly, and that's why everybody right now is using precious metals and only 1% use paper money

>>54242061
you won't torture shit

Lurker here
Thanks to all smart anons explaining rate hikes and QE to brainlets like me

>>54243713

Inflation, in general, is made of three things.

Government printing raw money, velocity of money, and government spending. This is provided that there is no decrease of liquid, such as gold coinage being melted etc.

We already printed the money, largely from QE and COVID stimmy payments. At the same time, supply chains got fucked by retarded quarantine laws. The result was an extreme economic boom - at the same time as a huge dump of liquid funds, easy access to low rate mortgages (sending prices various bigger prices sky high), AND a fundamentally less responsive supply chain - combined with lots of QE (at the highest levels of finance, some trickles down) and various govt spending bills.

We can’t unprint the money, we can do QT at potentially lethal economic cost, and the only way to really affect velocity of money is by fucking the economy.

Bubbles will pop, banks will fall, and jobs will be lost. The period of inflation is the medicine to the period of printing - it sucks, politically is disadvantageous, and is a law of printing money. The best way to let inflation heal would be to let it simply adjust to its new levels. QT and QE are cancers that let bubbles get bad and prevent fundamental economic healings.

>>54244416
>The best way to let inflation heal would be to let it simply adjust to its new levels.
the purpose of MMT is to prevent natural price discovery from occurring
the problem with your theory is that consistent inflation is something that you can ever "adjust to" without absolutely fucking the economy
here's what happens if you "adjust to" inflation, even if it's just limited to housing:
>"adjust to inflation"
>people get paid more because COL has increased
>higher salary increases purchasing power
>housing prices increase, incentivizing building single family homes
>housing prices increase, incentivizing selling houses
>suddenly, within 3-6 months, new houses hit the market in addition to sellers making arrangements and listing
>this applies downward pressure to the market because of increased supply
>sellers compete with new homes and other sellers, driving price down marginally
>sellers start to panic because many of them are overleveraged with debt
>mass sell-off creates massive defaults because people saying "real estate always go up" now suddenly can't sell because they'd be eating a $100k loss
>this manifests in literally every MBS-linked asset that has permeated every single sector of the market
>economy goes boom

MMT demands leveraging huge cash influxes to float exponential productivity increases. Without that, you get a massive collapse.

>>54244554
>>people get paid more because COL has increased
yeah but that isn't happening
most people get paid less relative to inflation. The living wage is like $25/hr and most people make $16/hr

>>54241457
bump. let's make this thread last for a day

>>54244554

You mean, without it, we return to a natural economy, right? Of course there will be an economic downturn. <5% employment isn’t natural. I’ve seen some figures put it at around 10% for a natural and healthy economy, at times higher and others lower.

Adjusting to inflation is letting it take its course. You can’t undo inflation, it’s literally not possible. If you can point out a historical example that proves otherwise, be my guest.

>>54241457
https://youtu.be/pYFYacKOp-k

How long till fed blink?

brainlet here. can someone explain why literally everyone expects fed to pivot this year and cut rates? when fed keeps saying that is not going to happen

inflation is high and people are dreaming? hopium or what?

>>54241834
kek

>>54247285
They're saying what they want to have happen, which is a reflection of their positioning.

>>54247285
They're not going to pivot until Q3 at the earliest.

>>54247285

>>54247285
They probably won’t pivot but shit is crumbling to pieces in the background while they maintain the perception of control over the situation. By the time they admit they’ve lost control it’ll be too late.

>>54247285
inflations already tanked back down
>t. buys food regularly in a major metropolitan area

EVERYTHING IS SO FINE THAT ALL OF US ELITE KIKES HAVE TO KEEP WORKING WEEKENDS AND ALL DAY AND NIGHT TO COME UP WITH NEW "EMERGENCY LENDING MEASURES" THEN CONSTANTLY HOLD DAILY PROPAGANDA PRESS BRIEFINGS FOR SHIT WE NORMALLY NEVER TALK ABOUT MORE THAN 4 TIMES A YEAR

>>54247285
People asking for a pivot are trying to convince their shareholders that this is a game of chicken that they're going to win so they don't have to adapt.

>>54242795
Focus on privacy protocols and you don't have to worry about CDBC.

>>54242690
What makes HBAR safe when it's not decentralized or can not keep anonymous txn? That's just some random low cap coin. Get your focus on the opposite of CBDC.

If I have to send $20,000 to someone in France asap to pay back my share of roof repair costs should I do it now or wait for Powell to announce an interest rate increase this week?

Please help I am retarded and so is my legitimate financial advisor.

>>54244554
Yeah but after a while the market learns from this and does not overleverage. Meaning that there is finally incentive to increase productivity and with that robots.

>>54250639
France uses € not $
HTH

>>54241457

>>54241457
What is there to wait for? Today's pump means insiders already know.

>>54251384
This. Rates are going down. If people arent longing now with high leverage they will never ever make it.

>>54251423
>rates are going down because I need them to
>I’ve lost so much money
you deserve it for being retarded

>>54251171
Not *that* retarded, what I mean is will the dollar eat shit compared to the Euro or vice versa once this boomer opens his mouth? My advisor told me to wait but she’s kind of a retard.

>>54251464
You're the retarded one here. Banks are literally failing left and right. Pivot is here and bottom is behind. Idiot. Just read the news and learn about the markets, dimwit.

>>54251856
This reads like you're tsundere over the prospect of higher rates.

>>54251581
>she
Kek

>>54251856
banks deserve to fail.

>>54242178
Three more local banks jumping on the bed
One fell off and bumped their head
Jerome raised interest rates again and said
"NO MORE LOCAL BANKS JUMPING ON THE BED!"

all these historic speed rate hikes and houses still aren't budging with their prices. getting worried bros. I thought this would cause them to go back to normal but maybe its going to take a while. I'm sitting on 103k cash for my first house and waiting to find the right time to buy is stressful.

>>54243082
>google
not happenin, chud

Betting 1 PNK on 25 bepis and "data-driven" guidance talk

>>54255271
the best time to buy a house is always NOW, especially if you plan on actually living there.

>>54248963
you are discounting the possibility that this is a controlled demolition and the crumbling (or rather dissolving, as in "solve et coagula" is by design)

which, it is

>>54244416
>Inflation, in general, is made of three things.
There is more than that as supply\demand also affects it greatly. As an example, suppose that there is a big drought all around the world and agricultural output is greatly reduced, that will be very inflationary pressures on food prices even on places that have not been affected by the event.
Similarly there is also deflationary pressures, say supposed that we have some material(think graphene) and there is a breakthrough for cheap production, from that there will be a deflation in graphene prices. And it's from there that imterest rates are thought to relate interest rates.

Higher interest rates encourage money to be tied with fixed wealth assets like bonds rather than spending. This will cause a fall to consumption and that will slowly spread through the entire chain.
Say Samsung sold 30% less phone this year(due to high price, economic situation and interest rates), so they plan to manufacture less next year, due to that they will order less chips and electronics components. The manufacturer of those will react too and so on. That will eventually lower prices as it spreads through the chain.

Lower interest rates however are the opposite, it allows persons and corporations access to cheap sources of capital. As an example, it's much cheaper to take a loan to buy an expensive phone or for a business to take a risk and try to scale up operations(it is even somewhat less risky as it's easier to repay the loans in cases things go wrong).

>We can’t unprint the money
They can remove it from circulation, which effectively does the same thing. /biz/ loves crypto so just think of it like when crypto does "burn" tokens by sending them away into wallets that nobody has access to. The money still exist, it's just that it's not in the market anymore.