/biz/ - Business & Finance

inb4 404

>>54199815
>>54199851
>>54199852

I feel bad for jannies. Inflation must really be affecting their salary negatively.

FUCK IT
BOIL REGARDLESS

Well, the last 3 days I've been trying to come up with a market neutral pairs trade and writing options, eg +200 SPY / -200 VOO, but then writing whatever. It looks like if it experiences a 6-7% swing, I lose bigly, otherwise I'm only getting like $500 against a hypothetical position size of $75,000. Not great.

>>54200109
why would you do that???? why do people insist on doing such complicated bullshit that probably doesnt even work, instead of just investing in good companies or indexes?

keep it simple, stupid

>>54200210
Well, I had an idea so I thoroughly tested it, and found out that it doesn't work. So now I move on to the next idea.
>Investing
>While the market is going to be in freefall this year

Buying a house I partially inherited. Realized I never submitted a new deed so that will be my headache next week.
>>54200222
Invest in puts. Then buckle up to get fucked by mm.

Is it over?

>>54200054
Let's go BOIL. I'm 500 shares deep. The 20% drop on Friday did not phase me.

>>54199815
No links edition?

>>54200361
You understand that US fracking makes natural gas basically free in the USA?

>>54200222
uhh yeah that's precisely when you want to buy retard. when things have tanked

It's that woo WOO. The whistles go WOOOOOOOOOOO.

>>54200412
Fundamentals haven't changed, shit is still objectively fucked. I will be waiting with cash

Fuck it we ball
Fuck it we ball
Fuck it we ball

>>54200222

>>54200222
etc etc

>>54200385
We need more natural gas power plants.

>>54200476
Do that for 1929

>>54200385
So should I move into KOLD then?

What's the appropriate punishment for someone who calls the Fed "the FED"?

>>54200361
333 shares, and every 1% hurts pretty hard core.
>>54200385
Weird how they bill people for it, pay all the workers, pay for the equipment, pay for the land use, pay for the storage, pay for the transport, and all that, for something that's basically free, then. They must be nuts to pay all that for free shit.

They pay out the ass with no fucking around when dealing with leaks too. I found a leak one night at about 8-9pm, called, and within about 30 min they were there, and soon after had about 7 trucks and 3 backhoes out all night and most of the next day on it. That was a lot of to do over some free shit. I am sure all those workers enjoyed being out here all night for no pay.

>>54200502
>What's the appropriate punishment for someone who calls the Fed "the FED"?
HOLUP
"The FED" is wrong? Then what is it? What does FED even stand for?

>>54200561
>What does FED even stand for?
Joe Federal (CEO of the federal reserve)

>>54200551
US natural gas costs about 1.3$ per mmbtu locally. Its also super effecient for home cooking, heating, and electrical needs (mostly dryers/washers). To ship it? About 2-3$ more that can be sold for $13 to japan currently.

Big if true

I havent had sex since memorial day 2022

>>54200656
So?

>>54200656
Your asshole should be fine by now.

PFFFFTTTT There's a company called doo doo. You're investing in SHIT aaHAHAHAHHAHAAAA. We're screwed.

>>54200431
xD

>>54200606
Maybe that's why Mootikins had to make those big GOOGbux before he could move and be a fag over there instead of here.

1 more week until the big crash .

what put options to buy this week would be most profitable?

>>54200708
TSLA? i believe it just had a mini pump

>>54200708
I believe that SOXL has to go down enormously with how absurdly NVDA has been pumping.

>>54200671
Yikes, I do business with some of those companies

>>54200659
>>54200663
You think this is a joke? Im horny

>>54200671
>CanadianSolar
im canadian and ive never heard of this company

Everyone here is in college/trade school or has an actual decent job (70k+ a yr in average cities, 90k+ in NYC/California) right? There aren't any actual 20/hr dead end wage slaves here right?

I’ve got 15k cash in my Ameritrade account. What should I do with it?

>>54200887
im a 38yo neet

>>54200892
Open up a futures short on the ES until it looses another 30%

>>54200892
5k in JPM
5k in BOIL
5k in BBBY

>>54200447
>>54200476
Buddy, look at SPY computer and zoom out to all time view.
I do dca via work etc. But my trading poorfolio is hedged for the downside and heavily in cash as well. I have a few meme trades I'm doing but right now I'm not optimistic about the next year

>>54200892
all in tesla

>>54200734
Wouldn't NVDA puts be better than soxl puts then?

>>54200913
etc etc

>>54200921
If NVDA had a retard rally, then it broke the trend and volatility/IV is up. You'll lose value on that. Safer to get a broad etf imo.

>>54200922
Also I should point out >2023
The dip hasn't happened yet imo.

>>54200887
I make 70k+ in the midwest. I've noticed that most people here are NEETs living with their moms.

>>54200887
Sorry I'm one of those. It's great when you are making more than actually going to work though

>>54200887
i make barely 100k with overtime but it's in CAD so it's really just 50k or something usd after taxes

>>54200887
Just started a lab job that pays 60k a year in commiefornia. Out of curiosity I looked at median wages here and am shocked to learn I’m in the 75th percentile. I’m poor as fuck but 75% of people make less money than me? I make enough to make ends meet but nothing more. Idk how anyone affords rent on less.

>>54198500
Uhh what explain. I have a decent chubk of cash just sitting there waiting and doing nothing. Am I safer off sending it to my bank?

>>54201009
who are you comparing urself to

does it include people on welfare or teenagers working at mcd

>>54201009
>commiefornia
>Idk how anyone affords rent on less
how the fuck do you think dumbass? government gibs

>>54201086
I was using this stat. Idk how accurate it is
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/Hourly-Rate-Salary--in-California

>>54201049
In a liquidity crisis, even well established institutions may restrict withdrawls or trades while waiting for stability. This is why you diversify. Not just across assets or strategies, but platforms as well.

The fate of Bitcoin: >>54201111

>>54200640
Oh boy I shouldve sold all my SOXL. I think I broke even on my shares finally but decided to hold

>>54200640
I dunno if the market will interpret this as QE time or shit is fucked

>>54201049

They might bait a recession to put uppity wagies back in cagie but they'll never let anything serious happen to rich people's money. If it's bank failures or printing they'll print 100 times out of 100.

>>54199815
>>54199044
LMAO how is it not obvious that the man is a CIA operative?

>>54201209
because the CIA doesn't operate on domestic soil

>>54201209
There was a comment suggesting he's dying
That'd be a hell of a black swan signal

shit OP
shit thread

>>54200921
According to one anon here SOXL will perform badly because Intel will manage to drag down the performance

I haven't been paying attention. What bank should I buy on the dip? M&T?

>>54201111
I've always wondered the same thing back when I started out as a lab tech making 40k a year in Texas right out of college. I only had a few hundred dollars left over after food + rent + utilities. I make 75k now as a lab supervisor and save/invest 3000 a month. Funny how my income almost doubled in two years yet my savings 10x'd. Then again I think I'm just used to being poor with my modest apartment and cheap hobbies. Meanwhile my sister makes 110k a year and has absolutely no fucking savings. She travels 4-5 times a year, drives a 50,000 dollar Tesla, eats out every day, and has her own personal trainer. Constantly flaunts her wealth on Instagram and Snapchat. She's never had more than 10k in her bank at any given moment and has asked me to borrow money. Fucking embarassing. She bought me pic related for Christmas last year though so I don't say shit to her.
/blog
>>54201291
>I haven't been paying attention. What bank should I buy on the dip? M&T?
EWBC if you're smart, JPM if you want free money, FRC if you're retarded.

>>54201249
normally when people refer to CIA they refer to one of their many, many branches :)

https://twitter.com/dharmatrade/status/1636586213187653633/photo/1
here's the new script:
https://github.com/dharmatech/net-liquidity.ps1/blob/NLSHO-2023-03-17/net-liquidity.ps1
I'm not the author, just leaving this here cuz some anon from smg talked about this a while ago and there are new developments on this topic...

>>54201009
>california
statistics are wrong because a huge portion of the population is working for cash under the table and mopping up gibs by having zero income on paper

>>54201431
LMAO what kinda obsessive schizo has time for this crap?

>>54201431
Lol
>>54201436
Stfu eggfag

>>54201352
economic illiterates like your sister are the norm, they just adapt their spending to the higher income and be poor anyway. give them another 50% raise and they still are poor but with extra shiny designer shit nobody needs

>jannie got offended by the troon gif and deleted it
LMAO

>>54200447
>muh growth during bull market while trillions printed
let's see how this works out in a decade long bear market

>>54200640
everybody lining up at the feds doorstep doesn't seem to be a good sign, 1 week to go until the big crash.

S&P headed to 3505
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtXGSFYQCqU

Now that we live in a banana republic developing country with uncontrolled inflation and political persecution, how am I supposed to invest my money?

>>54200671
Not a very impressive lineup next week.

>>54201655
The Chinamen usually are at the tail end of earnings

>>54200921
Just buy SOXS.

>>54201652
australia?

>>54201291
You might want to hold off until they're done collapsing.

>>54201667
burgerland, but I guess it applies to multiple countries

>>54201649
>woman in pretty dress doing TA
Imagine investing based on that

It is 4am EST / 1am PST on a Sunday. The markets are closed.
Please go to sleep anon. It's unhealthy to be up this late.

>>54201670
burgerland is getting bombed by beijing.

>>54201723
No.

>>54201743
It will if Chairman Jao Bai Den keeps it up.

>>54201723
will do (it's 5 am in my country...), thanks for the reminder.

>>54201723
ok, sorry

>>54200887
I make $110k in Israel

>>54200887
100k in flyover

>>54201723
I can't sleep tho

>>54201352
>FRC
dagNABIT I'm always the dummy!

>>54201723
I work night shifts

>>54201723
It's only 3am here and I am going to in a moment.

>>54201665
I've got soxs I was just curious about the rational of the put strategy because I don't know anything about options

>>54202080
>>54202093
it is 17:00 sunday here and I have to go back to work tomorrow

>>54201919
Don't worry bro, there's a non zero chance Buffett buys FRC

I'm happy when /smg/ makes money. We're all this together bros. Never forget that this coming week when everything goes to shit.

>>54202150
If everything goes to shit i make money.

just got back from a wedding - took an Uber home
I asked my Uber driver if he had noticed any recession in his experience driving Uber, he said no - he asked me what I did I said finance - my Uber driver then proceeded to explain the banking crisis in detail to me better than any faggot in /smg/ could (age 24)
I don't know what to think - everyone is so involved in the market, and knowledgable on information that used to be 'private'
The whole concept of "dumb money" is now challenged in my mind - is the money that dumb?
How dumb is dumb money today compared to dumb money 100 years ago?
>JPM-shoeshine-boy.png

>>54202150
i work with a bunch of constructions guys and they all say they're getting less calls for jobs lately. plumber i know said things are quiet. used to call him up and he'd be like "dude i'll get there as soon as I can is next week okay?" and lately it's like "i can be there this afternoon."

>>54202243
so he reads the journal, he (and we) are still very much dumb money. while there is more access to information today, the outcomes haven't changed

>>54202260
>while there is more access to information today, the outcomes haven't changed
I hear you - I find this hard to believe. I can't imagine that the outcome is the same now compared to 1929
the average retail investor is so much smarter, with access to so much more information
I can't believe that the outcome is the same, regardless of the 'wisdom' or the information advantage of the retail investor.. this challenges everything that I know to be true in finance, that the harder you work, the more information advantage you gain, the better decision making you can make
Perhaps it's all relative, that the distance between the retail trader vs the quant programmer is the same as it was between the retail investor and people trading the floor in 1929

>>54202260
There is also tons of disinformation. Even institutions which were deemed trustworthy in past are spreading propaganda and lies. Personally I spend lots of energy trying to find information that is useful. And even then I often make a bad judgement.

Anyone has a link to the previous thread?

>>54202281
the advantage the average investor has now is the access to low cost index funds, but i don't think dumb money is any smarter.

>>54202326
a lot of the information probably steers people wrong, desu. really the way to find a good stock is to read 10ks and then develop a wishlist for when a stock "goes on sale" due to some general market turmoil so you can buy a good company cheap. But, it's really hard to value companies, especially complex ones like banks. I can only start to do the most simple companies like basic manufacturing ones. I'm still probably better off to just be buying VTI but i find it fun to mess around with this stuff.

>>54202099
>I don't know anything about options
In that case you should tread lightly.

0 bepis next week
total market collapse next year

How low can BOIL go? Bought 2500 shares at 4.89 hoping for gains in a year or so.

>>54202359
> But, it's really hard to value companies
I completely agree. I gave up on the idea of me being able to value them. I mean, if you think about it, fund managers do exactly that: analyze numbers and build models. And yet most of them can't beat S&P500 despite them being professionals.
I think it's kinda insane to assume that you will be able evaluate a company in few evenings based on public information only. And don't forget about macro conditions changing constantly. Even manufacturing companies you mentioned are very complex if you consider how many things influence their profitabiliy such as raw materials prices, labour quality and availability, regulatory stability, competition, balance sheet health, consumer trends + cycles, stability of their partners (suppliers + clients), rogue board members trying to sink the company, And at the end of the day you must predict how those things will change going forward to evaluate if it's worth buying shares of this company. Shit is fucked.

I gave up on an idea of me being able to evaluate all this. Nowdays I just look at most basic things:
- balance sheet
- cash flow
- revenue growth YoY + MoM (earnings can be deceiving if company is reinvesting in a smart way)
- quality of the product + website
- commodity prices + situation if this is a commodities company
I also diversify a lot. I rarely have a position that goes over 2% of the total value of my portfolio. This way I'm protected from the fallout of my misinformed decissions. I also started buying more ETFs, so far they are performing pretty well so maybe this is the way to go for a retard like me.

i'm new to trading and investing and have been reading a lot lately, i have my concepts clear but I still lack some understanding. i have been dca'ing into various ETFs boglehead style for the path months. seeing this uncertainty, is it a goos idea to short indices and buy vix for a hedge? If I do I have to do it with a lot of leverage so I'm not sure if I'll be able to handle the margins if the dead mans bounce is too strong

>>54202243
>knowledgable on information that used to be 'private'
it was never "private" knowledge, just because your niggerbrain doesn't know or you didn't pay attention

>>54202434
>i have been dca'ing into various ETFs boglehead style for the path months.
all anons here started like this...
>seeing this uncertainty, is it a goos idea to short indices and buy vix for a hedge?
and ended up deep in the red after gambling with options and derivatives like this

>>54202434
>good
>dead cat bounce
what I mean is that I may be able to cover the margins if the market doesn't rally too much, but if it goes tits up (up to early 2022 levels) I may be getting margin calls. how can I manage my risk best? is the market even able to reach that high at this point?

Did the Fed lose control over the yield curve? It completely detached from fed funds rate. Will it reattach after a measly 25 bepis hike? Why would it

>>54202471
>gambling with options and derivatives
is buying vix and shorting indices to hedge against stock investments really gambling?

>>54202434
if you're a (((bogle)))head (no leverage) then you hedge by diversifying your portfolio and not by going max leverage short
for degenerate plays you open a second account and go max leverage, like any sane person would do

>>54202431
If you're max position is 2%, you might as well buy VTI or VOO.

>>54202559
your* (i got no sleep)

>>54202491
bonds are working this year like expected - as a """save haven""" trade
last year was the equity+bonds bloodbath because who wants to buy a 1% yield in a rate hiking environment

>futures

>>54202510
that makes sense. I think I may be undervaluing the risk of leveraging. leverage plays need leveraged hedges, so hedging with leverage would need a leveraged hedge of the hedge. with the current situation betting for a crash in the long run seems worth the risk, the risk is being able to cover the margins.

>>54202566
>who wants to buy a 1% yield in a rate hiking environment
Didn't we just have people buying 0% bonds, and they're still hiking

>>54202559
Sure, but it's not as fun. I'm kinda trying what Peter Lynch was doing. He was also diversifying quite a lot and following basic rules. I'm also looking for small companies mostly looking for good growth stories. No clue if it will be the right move, I guess I'll let you know in 10 years

>>54202605
good luck. i do think we might be in a great position here to get some really good buys, be it index funds or individual stocks. even now we're down pretty good, and it may even go lower if we're lucky.

>>54202595
who is buying 0%? they are going into short term, the 6M opened at 5% on Friday and people slurped hard
just shows that the stock market is going into a real shit show

>>54202644
We had a thread yesterday with that in OP. Here's Eurodollar University retard talking about it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_wPGSfUEFY

>>54202580
you're either a long-term (10+ years) boglehead style index or divvie with low beta stock investor (long only), preferable diversified into multiple sectors and commodities and even some % metals like gold (which is a good hedge btw. especially with that banking shit going on right now)
or you're trading with leverage on a short to medium term, do some degenerate earnings or other important economic prints plays for the extra day to day dopamine kick (at least for the first few months or so)
don't mix both into one account and you're good.
even if your stopped out of your margin plays you still have your "long term" one.. otherwise you might come to a point to cover your short term levered positions with your long term then you're going into a real shit show as a newbie trader and lose it all.

>bought a bunch of commodities last year
>getting a bunch of k-1s in the mail for taxes
what do i even do with this shit?

You forgot about the September 2022 Bank of England £65 billion emergency bailout, already. Haven't you?

>>54202939
I still wonder how they pulled it off with both QT and pension fund bailout, they just continued rate hikes after that and market shrugged it off. now they are at 4% and FTSE hit ATH this year..

>>54202939
It's just business as usual. As long as McDonalds has lights on nothing will change.

UBS Offers to Buy Credit Suisse for Up to $1 Billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-19/ubs-offers-to-buy-credit-suisse-at-chf0-25-shr-in-ubs-stock-ft

>>54203029
>Current market cap 8.6 bn
>Stock payment

NONO NOT LIKE THIS CREDIT SISSIES

>>54203029
Credit Suisse is still going to burn 2.5 billion in cash in the next year due to investigations

>>54202243
it doesnt matter how much you know on a topic. trading is about psychology and always will be. very few people have the phycological traits to be successful traders.

>>54199815
Based fuck jannies fuck trannies

>>54203120
don't worry Blackrock will do a better offer for like 1.01B

>>54203029
In all seriousness, paying anything for the equity is a mistake

>>54203029
I'm never going to make it am I? Every year I think I'm getting closer to buying a house and having a comfy life. But nope, globohome has their own plans and I'm not included in the happy ending it seems.

>>54203029
gigapump incoming monday

>>54203150
maybe short run. recession is starting to hit in my area for sure. also small banks are going to really tighten up their lending. everyone is going on the defensive.

How can you be bullish, given the circumstances of modern western society?

What happens when commercial real estate crashes?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/smaller-banks-critical-role-in-economy-means-distress-raises-recession-risks-ba31e6a8?mod=mhp
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/brookfield-defaults-on-two-los-angeles-office-towers

>>54203247
>heh this website is clearly spreading propaganda
>let me spread this propaganda even further
You're the problem

Saudis are trying to get CS to up the bid, clearly their 'diplomat' that made the original comment that sparked the crisis for them will be out of a job soon

>>54203273
>pointing out propaganda is spreading it

nah. if anything im just showing it to laugh at it with the bros. the bias should be self-evident pretty quickly. i used to think it was all a big joke but then you realize that half the country actually takes this shit seriously.