/biz/ - Business & Finance

BOIL

You sold strangles, right anon?

>>54164417
>the money returned to the treasury
lol

>>54164660
WHERE'S ERIC DALE?

is my FDIC insured CDs worth 120k saufu?

>>54164660
ITS JUST MONEY LADS!

>>54164660
Some nice anon took the time to make a webm of this.... I humbly request that you fucking USE it

Dollars are cotton cloth.

>>54164689
>Value below 250k
Yes, poorfag

>>54164684
>Do you know I moderated an imageboard once?
Sorry?
>A board.
No, I didn't know that.
>I was a janitor by trade. Mmhmm.
>It went from Page 1 of /3/ to Page 10 of /xs/. It spanned nine hundred and twelve pages across the catalog. 12,100 people used this thing a day.
>And it wasted thirty-five minutes of time each day between people taking a shit and crossposting to reddit.
>That's a combined 847,000 minutes of posting. A day. Or 25,410,000 minutes a month. And 304,920,000 minutes a year. Wasted.
>Now I moderated that board starting in 2006, that's seventeen years ago. So over the life of that one board, that's 5,183,640,000 minutes that were completely useless. At, what, let's say fifty IQ points a poster? So that's, what, that's uh... 4,319,700,000 IQ-hours, or 179,987,500 days. So that one little site has cost the people of those boards a combined 3,287 years of Einstein level thinking, wasted checking dubs.
>Three thousand two hundred and eighty seven years.

Market crash tomorrow

>>54164684
FUCK ME? Did you even look at the numbers Sam?

>>54164715
i have a coworker that looks identical to right

Fed has officially pivoted, the balance sheet increased 300b offsetting all QT done since the middle of November 2022. At this point any remaining bobo is mentally ill, the sane bobos have all swapped to the bull side.

Baking.

the fed is pumping the market again and im mad about it

>>54164726
He any good at math?

Is it a bad sign if management uses Total Addressable Market (TAM)?

>>54164697
Fuck you Sam

>>54164730
Interest rates are still going up. Infact this made it more likely

>>54164730
Um ackchyually the biggest crashes happen after the pivoot.

>>54164715
HAHAHAHAHAH

>>54164680
What exactly does this chart show?
Please explain in layman's terms.

My thesis was a study in the ways that friction ratios effect the outcome in steering outcomes in aeronautical use under reversed gravity loads

>>54164730
This exuberance is why I'm waiting till the Fed meeting to buy tech. Yes, even if we gigapump

>>54164742
dunno. we aren't close enough for me to know

>>54164730
i try to warn people but they wont listen
After March 22, they will learn
>they will learn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWBXBo7ZH-E

uh guys.. what happened to the fed reducing its balance sheet? it's going to throw away all that work in just one week?

>>54164759
US government is "bancrupting" itself sending taxpayer money to the banks.

>The losses were the result of the Fed's own rate hikes, which increased the amount of interest the Fed has to pay to banks on their deposits and to money market funds that make overnight loans to the Fed. Its net income plummeted, and the interest earned from its bond holdings was eventually not enough to offset the costs.

>In other words, the Fed remains a fund flow passthru vehicle, only instead of remitting the interest collected from QE to the Treasury, it is paying the banks instead.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-sent-76bn-treasury-2022-it-now-sending-650-million-banks-every-day-instead

>>54164752
Rate hikes are completely irrelevant, the aggressive QE defeats the entire purpose. Powell was never serious about fighting inflation.

>>54164730
Bull bros

We're going home

Balance sheet gonna snap back in 90 days.

>>54164798
We're getting what we've earned

>>54164786
So the FED has to expand its balance sheet again to rake in all those interest payments just to be able to cover the "award" money they owe from the reverse repo bullcrap?
Am I understanding this correctly?

>>54164730

>>54164690
>posting your own screenshot

What's the redpill on the credit sussie credit default swaps? I member seeing that meme last year too. What's the sudden increase in the price of of CS CDS mean? Explain to me like I'm a tard.

>>54164684
>Carmelo?
>Yes.
>Get me Eric Dale here by 6:30.
>It's done.

>>54164730
>futes crossed back into red
kek nice cope mumu. i bet youre pissing and shitting yourself in fear right now. i would if i were you

>>54164791
>Rate hikes are completely irrelevant
Not to the real economy. QE helps the banks noone else.

>>54164837
Insurance is more costly if the event is more likely.

e.g. car insurance for someone with a DUI is higher than for someone who's been driving for decades without a ticket.

Credit Suisse is hammered and swerving in and out of traffic with its lights off.

>>54164837
Stick to your day job, you won't make any money here

Chart says go down tomorrow morning.

>>54164825
Your guess is as good as mine

>>54164866
Based.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hhbu3vrnn0

reminder

https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

>>54164822
what a good boy

Gonna go see the new Shazam movie this weekend. Looks fun and hell I'd support WBD to.

>>54164871
you the chart whisperer or somein?

>>54164866
Last year someone explained how the price of the insurance was pricing in almost a certain probability of default. But it's just memes right goys, I mean guys?

>>54164872
I'm having doubts that there are even any parallel universe in which any of this would make sense...

>>54164904
whoever told you that was a retard and probably mentally ill

Welcome to recession, anon. It's finally begins.

>>54164892
>chart whisperer
I just think the bobos need a W tomorrow

>you ever done anything like this?
>>no never, not even close.
>...oh
>>yeah.

>are you sure it's the only...the right thing to do?
>>for who?

>>54164723
I disagree, but I do think we'll have a draw back as people take out cocaine money from this unrealistically excessive pump. Red Friday green resumes on Monday screen cap this, etc etc, dictated but not read.

Welp my state has done another good thing. (first was passing my salary hike) https://www.lex18.com/news/covering-kentucky/kentucky-house-passes-parental-rights-bill-includes-ban-on-gender-affirming-care-for-minors

>>54164911
I'm a retail goy not trading CDSs so what do I know. I remember everything, believe nothing

>>54164922
>everything pumping
>recession
keep coping bobo

>>54164887
this is great

>>54164960
You take profits right anon?

It's so funny that this shit show is in the same time as the FED blackout. The market just decided on it's own that "higher for longer" is old news 3 days after jpow said it.

>>54164785
kek, couldnt even remove 1 trillion before it starts pumping back to all time highs. We are watching the collapse of the dollar, and america, in real time.

>>54164910
Basically the FED is in the same situation as the banks. Their balance sheet is fucked.
It has a bunch of bonds with low interest rates. But now with rising interest rates, the FED earns less interest interst on these bonds than it has to pay in billions to the banks through high interest rate with Repo.
This is kind of hilaious.

Futes rippin!

>>54164660
So how exactly does the Fed program work? They take the bonds out of their hands at face value and that's it? Or are the losses realized over a few years plus interest?

>>54164960
>injecting liquidity witch Fed drained for halve of the year
>5% pump
Also you can forget about rate cuts due to incoming inflation wave because of bailouts.

>>54165015
1 year loan for par value at a small premium over the funds rate.

>>54164960
stocks tend to pump before a recession ends. the market is forward looking, not so much at what is currently happening.

>>54165015
it really depends, there's all sorts of things they can do
they also have their own trading desk/floor

HIFS shill, why does their revenue say n/a?
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hifs/statistics/

>>54164724
Imagine being a rich, good looking aristocrat and still being smart and making tons of money. How do you even compete

>>54165015
I thought it was like: a bank can borrow money at SOFR+0.1% using a Treasury security as collateral, and the value of that collateral will be considered to be its par value instead of its market value.

>>54164674
no but i did sell naked 0dte SPY calls for burrito ingredients which i had to roll/martingale 3 times today. very unpleasant but i will win.

>>54164674
>You sold strangles, right anon?
SPY covered strangles to be specific. But I do have some additional naked puts so I'm not really delta neutral.

Where is FRC going tomorrow?

>>54165013
Or...maybe...
Maybe it means that the US has stopped paying their coupons on the (US) debt the FED holds.
Who would ever think that they'd collaborate and do such a thing...

>>54165066
revenue is passé

>>54165084
Oh, nowhere important. Might take a trip down to Costco to stock up on groceries, drop by the pub for a drink or two, then down into the eternal dark abyss where all things go to die. Typical Friday afternoon.

>>54165040
>1 year loan for par value at a small premium over the funds rate.
don't kid yourself.
"1 year" will eventually become "until maturity"

i really need to start inversing myself before i hit the buy/sell button

I found my wallet
no I am not buying

>>54165084
Ask yourself who’s going to want to hold it over the weekend?

>>54165105
Yes I fully expect this to be a permanent QE mechanism to protect the banking industry from interest rate risk.

>>54165071
thats exactly what anon described, except without as many market terms.

>>54165084
the fed almost always pumps the markets on friday, so its probably going up.

How much closer are we to seeing the biggest market crash since 1929 or at least 1987? Nothing about what's happening with the fed, banks and overall stocks looks healthy at all.

>>54165154
two more weeks bro

>>54165154
2022 was our dotcom crash
so.. 2028

>>54165121
very likely

>>54165154
Think more like Japan from 1991 to 2018

>>54165154
Are you asking me when the next black swan is going to happen?

>>54164724

What do you call this pattern?

>>54165203
The calm before the storm>>54164826

>>54165203
Bullish.

>>54164730
>300b offsetting all QT done since the middle of November 2022
God that's fucking pathetic

>>54165203
Notice how there is higher order frequency movement in the curve, that's banks pulling on the fed loan facility, this is what this move is.

>>54164825
No. The balance sheet is just a measure of how many bank reserves they've issued against assets they hold. Factor out the fact they issue dollars for a moment.

All the reserves they issue are claims on their asset pile. When they do QE, the increase the pile and issue reserves. QT they slowly shred reserves by shrinking the asset pile.

Currently they have a conundrum. Normally as they operate, they end up slowly accumulating reserves they issued because their asset pile yields reserves. Usually they remit these excess reserve claims to the Treasury which grants their monopoly to issue these reserve claims, this brings their pile back into balance with the external floating reserves. It wouldn't make sense for the asset pile to bigger than the reserves lay claim upon.

But now they are issuing more reserve claims through interest from their operations than claims flowing inward from interest on their asset pile. So to make up the difference, they've created a new "deferred asset" which accumulates to balance out the excess reserves.

Whenever (or if) the net flow reverses and they start accumulating excess reserves, they will annihilate them by paying off the "deferred asset". Only once the "deferred asset" is brought back to zero will the reserve claims match the balance sheet and they begin remitting to the treasury.

Functionally, they used to pay the Treasury ~$100b/year, and that is suspended they pay off the cumulative deferred asset.

>>54165178
>2022 was our dotcom crash

>>54164826
what the fuck is that

>>54165154
I wouldn't worry as long as the Treasury keeps making its coupon payments.

what could they have done differently?
tell the banks to fuck off?
hike rates earlier instead of gaslighting us?

>>54165247
they could have easily done both of those things.

>>54165247
Not closing the country over the flu would have been a good idea

>>54164822
Bitch is fucking crazy. I've known cattle farmers for years who wouldnt ever spend that long next to a male bull with horns like that.

>>54165247
>hike rates earlier instead of gaslighting us?
This would've been the best approach. Everyone knew CPI was garbage and understating things due to OER early on in 2022, but the Fed was still doing fucking QE until March.

Is MARA still a buy?

>>54164761

>>54165203
relapse

>>54165154
Mega crashes don't happen anymore without a black swan that shuts down all business activity like COVID alpha. The algos and market makers have armies of PhDs making sure that option buyers don't get to coom. So instead of a crash we get crab or slow bleed.

Printing (regardless of your definition) doesn't matter if rates are still high. Bonds are still more attractive for pension funds.

We crab.

>>54165266
>Bitch is fucking crazy.
Yeah, she is a woman.

>>54165203
printer go brrrrrrr
literally 4 months of qt undone in a week

>>54165283
I've been selling naked calls on MARA for the past 2 years lmao

>>54165203
Inverted cup & handle. Expect Jerome to market sell $4 trillion of bonds next week.

It's literally over tomorrow isn't it bros
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lgs9QUtWc3M

>>54165088
What this shows to me, is that this circejerk is not endless.
The system cant support high interest rates for a prolonged period of time.
Repo has exploded in recent years and in the end the taxpayer has to pay for it.

why are you guys fighting the fed? just buy tech and let jerome pump your bags. why do you have to be contrarian and poor?

>>54165247
Look at the rate hikes from '04 to ' 06. 25 benis points a month. Very gradual, lots of time for the banks to get their interest/duration risk in check. Jerome did that same amount of hiking in less than a year, very quickly destroying the banks in that same amount of time. Rate hikes should have started in '21 but the fed workers needed that bubble so they could retire forever.

Cheeky bratty markets need some correction

My brain just started clicking for a bit.
What if the clowns in Congress actually fuck up and cause a default? Unlikely but the novelty of it all might cause a crash.

The only thing dumb enough to be a black swan that isn't entirely unpredictable (or a nothingburger).

>>54165247
>what could they have done differently?
>tell the banks to fuck off?
yes
>hike rates earlier instead of gaslighting us?
yes

And
>Accelerate hikes to cpi + 2% immediately
>Shift gears from tapering through bonds maturing to market selling

>>54165343
Nonsense. Nothing bad ever happens on opex days. Especially triple witching ones.

>>54165230
>QT they slowly shred reserves by shrinking the asset pile.
No, I don't believe this is true.
The QT that was happening until now was due to US debt they were holding eventually maturing.
Which means the debtor has to pay back the principal in whole.
That debtor isn't the bank/institution that deposited (passed on) the bond to the FED but the US government.
The US gov has to raise additional debt (or cut expanses, hehe) to cover the principal which is basically another act of money creation.

I'm still trying to make sense out of the rest that you've written, which I guess is a flawed observation or outright not true.

No offense.

>>54165374
They won't because they would get heemed by every single lobbyist and donor.

The reason people treat the debt ceiling as a meme that gets solved at the last minute is because it *is* a meme that gets solved at the last minute.

IS THIS BULLISH

SOMEONE GOOD AT ECONOMY PLEASE HELP ME UNDERSTAND THANKS

>>54165380
>just go heavy opposite direction the morning move on opex days
is this literally free money?

>>54165351
that is exactly what the fed not wants? They can't reach 2% with loose financial conditions. Job data today was way too good for the FED. Tech trannies should fire more people.

>>54165391
>The US gov has to raise additional debt (or cut expanses, hehe) to cover the principal which is basically another act of money creation.
not really, the fed is non-profit. if they make any money (after their own expenses) the money is returned to the treasury.

>>54165344
>Repo has exploded in recent years and in the end the taxpayer has to pay for it.
Your picture is showing REVERSE repo, however.

>>54165374
>What if the clowns in Congress actually fuck up and cause a default? Unlikely but the novelty of it all might cause a crash.

When is the exact date we finally get an answer for the whole debt ceiling crisis?

>>54165407
Adjusted for inflation, that borrowing isn't as bad as it looks. It is a nothingburger really.

>>54165230
They are losing money through repo. Repo was never this high before. See: >>54165344

is this true

>>54165428
oops, sorry

>>54165374
I wouldn't count it out. Usually Congress enjoys the political circus but they've been relatively quiet about the debt ceiling. Could be they're just holding it in pocket so when things get dire you can write any bullshit in the bill and get it passed. Seems like I've heard projections that the government can get by until sometime this summer just on tax receipts, issues new debt as old debt matures. There's also the TGA at the Fed. Looks like they've drained a bit recently lol.

>>54165436
Based inflation adjuster.

>>54165437
then forget this

>>54165430
Final tax receipts aren't until mid April so it's still ballpark "some time in June"

>>54165449
He's just self-identifying to meet the diversity quota. Very intelligent. Very bullish.

>>54165391
>>QT they slowly shred reserves by shrinking the asset pile.
>No, I don't believe this is true.
Mechanically this is how it works. When the bonds mature, the gov pays the principal back in dollar reserves from the TGA. The reserves are iou's from the fed itself, so they simply annihilate. The balance sheet runoff is from them not re-investing a certain amount of maturing bonds as they normally do to maintain the size.

You're right the gov issues new treasuries (collateral) to create money, but QT is when the collateral dissappears and the dollars annihilate (when the money arrives back at the fed).

>>54165402
I know it's a meme, but memes seem to rule politics these days. Fucking up Treasury notes would be like a bank failure times a million.

It won't happen but it's funny to think about. Do you think they'd go for a trillion dollar coin?

>>54164723
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA IT'S LITERALLY THE NEW WORLD ORDER

>>54165488

>>54165491
No. You may get one week or two week waivers, those are pretty common.

>>54165463
Thanks, anon.

why doesn't the us just not pay foreign debt? what are the chinks gonna do about it? invade to get their money back? good, world war 3 is bullish

>>54165491
Dark Brandon will just tell the Treasury to ignore the debt ceiling because it's unconstitutional per Section 4 of the 14th Amendment.

do you understand how insane the NVDA chart is

>>54165488
>>54165503
Why are the Saudis involved? I can't be the only one asking this question.

>>54165423
>not really
Yes, really.
You assume the FED holding US debt is a zero sum game, which it is clearly not as the FED has to buy the debt from the open market.
For the debtor (US government) to pay back the principal PLUS THE INTEREST ATTACHED to pay back until/at maturity of the debt; A NEW DEBT has to be created of at least the full amount of interest cost of the maturing debt. This new debt covering the old debt has interest attached as well and the cycle goes on.
Your zero sum game assumption would mean that the US wouldn't need to go into debt in the first place.
It's simply false.

I have $50 what puts should I get tomorrow?

>>54165437
Yeah, the money they're losing (assets interest in - operations interest out) they are accounting as a deferred asset to be paid off to themselves before resuming remittances.

>>54165536
Especially with all that is going on currently. I dont get why it keeps rising

>>54165516
The entire reason the US runs a perpetual budget deficit is because other countries want to use our treasuries as a global reserve. Our debt is their liquidity. Defaulting on the debt is counter to our current economic framework and you'd need to be prepared to rug the dollar and nationalize the currency.

>>54165516
If you want to screw China, that saves about 1.5t. If you want to screw allies or neutral foreigners (Japs, Krauts, ragheads, etc), that only gets you another 3.5t.

So you solve maybe 1/6th of the debt in exchange for destroying the global financial system. Ultimately you would move backwards because treasury yields/interest costs would double or worse overnight.

>>54165563
I think it's just AI memes

>>54165543
All those oil bucks gotta be parked somewhere. And 2% bonds were shit returns for quite a while.

I’ve bought nothing this week, i feel like im losing ideas
it’s over

>>54165536
not insane but bullish until other chipmakers reclaim their market share on AIware

>>54165563
Tech bottom is in, operating under the assumption that inflation is stagnant or improving, meaning institutions won't take us even lower by pricing in more unexpected hikes.

As for NVDA in particular? Fucking techbro permabulls and their horseshit.

>>54164822
That's one way to prep the bull

>>54165516
>>54165578
Pic for reference. Soon a treasury default would hurt more individual retail bondholders than forners.

>>54165590
there are always opportunities. So it is fine if you miss out on some.

>>54165516
WW3 wouldn't happen, it'd be more like a dozen different wars all starting at once since you'd also have NATO basically disintegrating instantly and Turkey, South Korea, Taiwan being defenseless.

>>54164723
Lol, I swear to God if there's a gentle awakening for these sheepish Fulkerson and everything I've gone through these last 15+ years being awake was for nothing I'm gonna bring the hell their sleep has put me through.

>>54165584
ready for that fad to die already

>>54165546
stopped reading at "FED" tbqh

>>54165486
>but QT is when the collateral dissappears and the dollars annihilate (when the money arrives back at the fed)
See >>54165546.
I am not doubting that because I know this is true.
But all the while on ALL THE DEBT there was interest (mostly in the form of coupons) to be paid, which is sourced by the US government via the treasury in the open market... IN NEW DEBT.
With positive interest rates it is ever expanding (the debt) it just is... as nobody does relinquish ownership of any of their assets.

>>54165620
You didn't watch,
you didn't learn.

>>54165264

>>54165612
It's not going to die until it replaces laptop make-work jobs; or at least those jobs become "feed prompts into the demiurge".

But-- I don't believe Nvidia has a long term captive market for AI hardware. Maybe it does for 3-5 years and that's why they're trading at such a premium.

>>54165652
Yeah yeah it'll take out some grunt work like a lot of things developed over the years. I'm talking about the fad part, where every retard on the internet gapes his mouth over an "AI" being capable of telling them what to do, just like in the movies.

>>54165630
Yes, in absence of monetary expansion, debt-based money is deflationary. No disagreements.

>which is sourced by the US government via the treasury in the open market... IN NEW DEBT.
This is the part I think you misunderstand. The Treasury can acquire the capital through domestic taxes or foreign tariffs, the financing isn't all through debt. It used to be trade surpluses turned into gold-flows. That's how the USD became reserve currency in the first place, the US had >50% of the world's gold at one point.

You assume the system was designed by morons, and not people who understand that a collapse means nobody gets paid.
Somewhere someone very rich decides to eat shit for a day, and issue low interest loans to prevent total global collapse.

>>54165652
AI is NFT tier griefting at this point.
The knowledge intensive industry applications have been happening for a decade now.

The AI application for laptop make work jobs are simply an addon to the low code systems. It's far from revolutionary or impactful.

>>54165701
The system runs itself at this point, stretching over generations and many people. The morons just mistake influence for control. It will die on its own too.

>>54165178
>>54165189
>>54165195
>>54165167
>>54165240
>>54165297
nah man its looking like everything is planned out for one huge reset of the world economy and its gonna fucking suck ass through a bendy straw.

>>54165602
I love when a boomer trie to tell me about muh Chibese buying US debt. And I point out the vast majority of US debt is debt we owe to ourselves and all we did was sell China some bags.

futures when he real

>>54165652
>Nvidia
Now if you are interested in meme generative nets, Nvidia cards are necessary, AMD isn't even considered for this kind of thing. Nothing to do with processing speed btw.

>>54165699
>taxes or foreign tariffs
which, of course, are also a form of debt with positive interest attached that is owned by and owed back to someone/something.
>the financing isn't all through debt
what else would it be then because in essence currency is debt. at least under the current system that we live under.
how things operated in the past quite literally doesn't matter any longer, even thought they might have been vastly different.
genuine question.

MUMU fags can you sell tomorrow so i can exit my shorts.

>>>/wsg/5008950

muh ai revolution, meanwhile the processing power of a casio watch has been running customer support for decades

>>54165732
>Reset
Because the powers that be want to take their chances starting from zero because...why? It's fun? They want to test the "airdrop a billionaire" hypothesis?

Generative AI
>Generative AI
Generative AI
>Generative AI
SOXL bros. WE ARE BACK

>>54165733
I remember this commercial in 2010.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM

>>54165790
You are by far the dumbest poster I've ever seen.

>>54165773

>>54165793
nice to see you back fren

>>54165718
ok, what does that have to do with NVDA making profits selling their data center space to every startup trying to capitalize on AI hype? AI doesn't need to pan out or become revolutionary or impactful for NVDA to make tons of revenue in the near term, then they'll just pivoot to another sector or application like they did from gaming

>>54165802
Ruh-oh...

>futures

>>54165773
Fascinating.

Although I think if AIs can take our jobs, they might as well earn a salary and open bank accounts, too. Bullish for financials.

>>54165852
Rippin son

>>54165790
The reset only applies to the slave caste. Aka everyone who isn't an old money zoglord.

>>54165812
Been a rough year fren

>>54165072
>i did sell naked 0dte SPY calls for burrito ingredients which i had to roll/martingale 3 times today
You like to live dangerously, anon.

>>54165732
This will be a seamless transition in the background nobody outside the system ever had access to anyways.
Wholly proprietary, wholly closed and sheltered from the outside, of course.
The masses will not notice because on the forefront nothing will change for them.

Kek baggies

>>54165855
an engineering drafting office that employed 50 people in the 70s has maybe 10 today, automation has been happening for decades and it's not this delusional anime sci-fi cyberpunk fantasy you pathetic manchildren have inside your heads

>>54165866
oh i know it, 2022 was the worst year of my life.

>>54165773
https://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1679016621729821.webm

>>54165816
I just feel a little uneasy investing while being so dependent on a fad.
On the other hand I like Nvidia's handling of cloud gaming which could also be a way forward for the company.

>фьючepcы

at what point should I take profit on my soxl? I have 100 at $14.07. I figured I should shoot for around $18 right?

>>54165072
>I will win
>Already rolled
>Already martingaled
>Still down
>Margin requirements increasing each roll
>Losses already taken each roll
Ngmi

I'm not smart enough to understand all this bond talk

>>54165933
It wasn't brains that got me here. I can assure you of that.

>>54165765
We're on the same wavelength. Here's my conclusion.

Currency = claim on central bank assets.
Central Bank Assets = Gold + Various Bonds + Foreign Currencies.

We can reduce this equation down to:
Currency = Gold + Bonds + Foreign (Gold + Bonds).

Bonds are just a promise for currency in the future so ..

Currency = Gold + Foreign Gold.

Imagine for a moment the Treasury defaults. The Fed's Treasuries go to zero. We end up with ..

Issued Reserves = Gold + Foreign Central Bank Assets.

They could solve it by simply revaluing gold, since it is THE base tier money. Or the Treasury could sell public land to fed or raid another country for gold deposit it at the fed.

In the colonies, they used colonial scrip which was issued against land. I think in the future, we'll get an internationally accepted basket of collatewral of oil/gold/etc (maybe even some crypto).

In the end, whatever asset is behind the the central bank holdings will be worth all the currency the debt cannot fill.

Not a goldbug, but I do hold 10% among gold/silver/crypto as a currency revaluation hedge.

>>54165131
No. Anon said "take the bonds out of their hands at face value," which seems to mean selling bonds to the government at their par value. That's completely different from what I described.

>>54165945
Alcohol for me

>>54165933
Listen to Bloomberg Surveillance for 3 years then it’ll start to make sense

>>54165974
I'm an alcohol.

Futes rippin

>>54165888
Going from paper and pencil to CAD is a bit easier than CAD that can draw itself. I work with the fellas trying to automate that stuff and they are—for lack of better terms—hopeless and lazy.

>>54165884
I doubt it. Even the biggest retard normies will notice when they have their digital shekels frozen or deducted just for saying shit on social media.

>>54165992

>>54165991

>Futures

>>54164752
If he give qe that’s stimulus that hurts most people but helps wall street. If he lowers rates, everyone gets richer.

Keeping rates high while doing QE is basically sucking buying power out of a wagie's wallet through his credit card and putting it in bonds and mbs.

It’s not inflationary. It’s the transfer of wealth from the have nots to the haves.

>>54166001
Kek BAGGIE

>futes

>>54166030
Rippin son

>>54166001
Jannies can slow down your posts, they can't stop you. It's your IP to reset.

>>54165956
>Or the Treasury could sell public land to fed or raid another country for gold deposit it at the fed.
And I honestly suspect this is where the "You'll own nothing and You'll be happy." meme might actually come to fruition.
Because relinquishment or fortitude of ownership is one of the final solutions (kek) to escape/destroy debt.

This might not sound very eloquent, but at one point TPTB might simply proclaim that only solution to handle all the debt is to own nothing at all.
Ownership of "everything" of course will be transferred to a completely transparent entity, elected by and operating in the best interest of the public.
Of course...

And I believe I understand your conclusion and/or your point of view.
However, I want to interject that the practices of fractional reserve banking mess up pretty much any "solid" theory about, well, anything financial for that matter.

>>54165933
The short version is
>The bond market is where people way smarter than us make money by selling and buying debt
>When they get bored, they pump the fuck out of the stock market like nothing else
>When they get tired of making money in stocks, they rugpull and go back to bonds
And that's about as much as I understand for sure.

>Pluperfects

>>54166077

BITCOIN POOMPA

MARKETS WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW

MEATBALL MARKET

KEK
BAGGIES

>>54164660
RIPPIN SON

>>54165903
just buy ASML then. Can't go wrong with betting on the one company that can actually make the hardware that makes all other cutting edge hardware.

Kek baggies

Fucking HOSERS

I'm so high I've been refreshing the last thread since this one started. I'm eating sausage. This is really bad for my health though right. I'm thinking about my puts and calls for tomorrow, which is good for my health. The day after drinking too heavily is the worst. I felt like I was being punished by god.

https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2023/nr-occ-2023-25.html
Modern banking is such a fucking meme

>futes

>>54166212
God hates options traders. This is a known fact.

>>54166212
I can tell you've never opened your third eye. Sad

>>54164674
I bet she has an ugly pussy

>>54166089
Yes, to clear a debt, either relinquishment or forgiveness. Anything bought while taking on debt was leveraged, and the great deleveraging will show who is truly solvent in this clownshow.

Fractional reserve banking from what I have observed seems to come about from the need for monetary elasticity. Prices would be theoretically stable if the money supply changed with the population, ceteris paribus with technological innovation or geopolitical dis-efficiency. Spanish Empire collapsed because of inflation from too much New World gold, and the Great Depression deflationary destruction from deleveraging after the roaring 20s credit bubble.

Loans can be beneficial if used for productivity, like buying a tractor on loan, then paying it off with surplus farming profits otherwise not attainable by hand. But the world today is an economy of rent-seekers due to the sheer size of pensions & of government redistribution/spending.

If you're interested, find "Princes of the Yen" on youtube for the Japanese Post-War period through to the end of their 80s credit bubble & crash.

kwab

So what's up at FOMC?

>>54166235

>>54166210

>>54166259
HALT
WHO GOES THERE?
RATE HIKE?
NOT ON MY WATCH
25 BEPIS?
NOT EVEN A LITTLE BIT
OH OK FREN

>>54166052
correct
it only helps banks, but screws everyone else

>>54166244
I've never seen a damn thing I've liked with two eyes, what difference would another make?

ITS JUST A SCAM FOR THE JEWS

>>54166259
He was unsatisfied. He will accumulate more.

holy fuck that liquidity dump
based powell DEMOLISHING boboniggers

It's just sexy

Puts on FRC. How retarded of an idea is it? I wanna make money off the country dying

KEK baggies

>>54166253
>and the great deleveraging
hahahahahahaha that would require the fed to let people go bust
the fed has amply demonstrated that when push comes to shove the money printer will INSTANTLY pump out trillions to save big business
enjoy your double digit inflation

Let me get this straight
banks collapse -> Fed steps in to inject liquidity -> markets assume Powell has no balls -> market anticipates hyperinflation instead of 50 bps

Kek bagggieeeeeeeeees

>>54166346
yes
and they're right
the fed just deleted 4 months of QT in one week

>>54166377
Remember when I was schizing out here that they lied about QT last year... Kek remembers

>>54166346
It's the opposite. Market anticipates a return to deflationary factors and infinite QE forever. Rates fuck with the market way more than inflation ever could.

>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong
>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong
>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong
>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong
>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong
>SQQQ bros hold strong
SQQQ bros hold strong

I forgot I bought JPM calls (140 exp 3/24) on a whim today
Will I see profit?

>>54166389
there was no way to prove that jerome would actually pull this shit until something happened
some third rate shithole tech bank goes tits up and jpow instantly restarts the money printer full blast
absurd

>>54166346
>market anticipates hyperinflation
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.22%. That's far from hyperinflation.

>>54166392

>>54166252
I bet she doesnt desu. I bet both her and her sister have very cute little clams

>>54166406
That was so obvious. Only clott adams-tier retards didn't see that coming a mile off.

>>54166409
lol'd

>>54166406
>MUH LAG TIME ON MBS'S
>MUH PROOF
Copelet

>>54166409
he remains unaware

>>54166366

>>54166406
It’s kinda sad, desu. All that talk and he blinks at the first discomfort. I almost feel like they’re just shaking out crypto to keep up the fiat monopoly. They never intended to even disinflate.

>>54166413
Wow, really made me think!

>>54166052
So once again the best option is to just buy and hold stocks, real estate and gold and you should move just shy of debtmaxxing to accomplish this because the inflation will out pace the credit.

Imagine actually caring about inflation now that the fed has proven thenly don't actually care.

Crbp to $10 tmr need I say moreeeee crbp gang

>>54166446
The market could absolutely be wrong. I'm only saying the market isn't expecting hyperinflation as anon suggested.

>>54166474

Fuck it. If we crab I buy tech. If we pump I buy banks. If we dump I DCA indexes.

>>54166495
That looks tasty

Why does "injecting liquidity" mean "injecting dollars"? Why does "low liquidity" mean "the price went down"? Liquidity is just the ease with which an asset can be sold. For example homes have low liquidity because I can't flip millions of them per day like shares of SPY. There are buyers for the banks' bond bags, they just have to lower the price more than they want to.

>>54165079
If you have enough money to refer to $400+ Strikes in the plural number nonchalantly then i wish i had your kind of doigb. I can’t afford options on anything over 30 strike realistically.

>>54166230
>moving money from one part of the ponzi scheme to another
>thinking i'll fall for it just because (((they))) propped up 1 bank

Look

Basically I'm just not gonna deposit (the USD!!)

I'm sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I know..... UGH I know.....

It's just that I'd rather own cash-like securities in my brokerage and use them to pay for goods and services at the maturity date!!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>54166475
A lot of people are gonna need to die to change course on this mfer. 10 years til American civil war.

>>54166475
>you should move just shy of debtmaxxing to accomplish this because the inflation will out pace the credit
If your income goes up with inflation.

anon if you ever had a friend or family member that died due to cancer you should be investing into crbp right fucking now. It’s the pharma that’s closest to curing it once and for all. It’s not always about the bag you could be one of the hero investors that going to make history

>>54166507
You forgot.
Everyone here is fucking retarded.
Look at the bond markets. Look at them.
Buddy
Buddy look
BUDDY LOOK AT BOND COMPUTER

>>54166505
>That looks tasty
What stocks are you slurping?

>>54166496
You tell em.

>>54166542
Okay I'm looking. Now what?

>futes

>>54166549
I DCA into QLD and buy TQQQ calls/puts when I'm in the mood

>>54166549
That anon wouldn’t tell you but I will because I want you to succeed as well. me and all the anons be slurping crbp until it reaches $200. get in on it while you can lil bro crbp gang

>>54166549
CS

>>54166518
>FED bails out banks
>creates a situation where no one uses the banks
>beats inflation because everyone is hiding money in crypto, stocks, bonds, credit, and gold
It's a retarded plan but it just might be retarded enough to work.

>>54166569
>>54166569
>>54166569
>>54166569

>>54166474
I actively try to avoid thinking if at all possible.

>>54166577
45mph

i have 140 IQ

>>54166540
Who cares if you transfer your assets and then declare bankruptcy. Have you never played monopoly?

>>54166592
>crbp
Will look into thanks fren

>>54165154
MMT zombie market is just going to rely on inflation to bail out the money printing. Its why they shill ESG so hard to attract Blackrock investment. The good news being that ESG isn't going to stop any of these shitter from crashing only inflation fiat at the cost of tax payers. They do this all the while trying to kill crypto like that will help them.

>>54166413
This talking point is definitely true to some extent but lefties act like the US has never had culture war problems. A multi-racial, multi-ethnic nation will inherently have divisions like that, Americans weren't singing kumbaya before Occupy.

>>54166610
My current system is to put everything on my Amex Platinum, and pay off my card when my short-dated treasuries mature. If your USD is not in your hand, or in a safe, someone else is speculating with it. At least they can't speculate with my treasuries because I own them. My brokerage comes with online bill pay and debit card as well, so I can off ramp into USD when necessary.

>>54165536
>NVDA
gaps get filled

buy AMD

>>54166808
Nvidia looks like it might pump more than amd I hate how amd iis around 100 I doubt it more than stagnates there.

>>54166577
I'm gonna say 60.

>>54166558
Bonds go down tens of points = (((Feds))) buying debt.

>>54166592

>>54165491
JPow already said hard no to trillion dollar coins

>>54166253
>If you're interested, find "Princes of the Yen" on youtube for the Japanese Post-War period through to the end of their 80s credit bubble & crash.
I have that one stored on a hard drive, but only seen bits and pieces of it so far.
I'll watch the whole thing eventually.
Thanks for the recommendation and thanks for the conversation.
WAGMI, fren.

>named Jerome Powell
>be bitch nigger
Jay I know you lurk here, ur a fagot ass bitch

>>54165013
The Fed is not in the same situation because they have a literal money printer, "losses" for the Fed are good for the (real) economy

>>54165247
Jay should have personally executed every executive of SVB on live stream