/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54118560
LOL hoomers blown the fuck out. I knew it was about to collapse since everyone suddenly thinks they are a landlord.

>>54118560
You are being a faggot. The issue with MBS is NOT related to 'toxic mortgages' or to borrowers unable to pay. The issue is that the values of securitized mortgages has fallen due to fed rate hikes. There isn't demand for securities that pay that low. The drop in MBS prices has no impact on home prices. Home prices have come down and will continue to come down due to demand destruction via Fed rate hikes. But, there is no housing crisis at this moment.
Holy shit /biz/ is more retarded than ever.

>>54118560
yup. i don't even bother trying to convince the hoomers anymore. they are like lambs to slaughter. can't wait to buy up their foreclosed hooms on the cheap

>>54118918
kek

Do you think banks will loan out money once they banks start failing because they are holding toxic SHIT? Liquidity dries up and you will need to pay a hefty price to get mortgage. no more 2% down faggot.

Real estate price are going to tip over.

>>54118918
Don't argue with the financially illiterate

>>54119016
This. When the food is rotten it is ready to be fed to the pigs, not before

>>54119043
This is a credit and liquidity crisis's... home investors are financially illiterate. If they actually understood the markets they would be investing in the stock market.

>>54118560
>Housing is about to crash
So the American tax payers get to bail out Black Rock.

>>54118918
now what is interesting is that as the MBS values drop so will liquidity as demand for MBS shrinks.
as mortgage liquidity dries up, so does the economy.
which results in job loss.
which results in people not paying their mortgages.
which results in falling home values.
which results in people being underwater and walking away.
which results in MBS becoming hated again.
Who the fuck wants to buy an MBS when you can buy T-bills and 2 year treasuries yielding 5%+

my jewish boss says the housing market will continue to go up

>>54118560
This is the time all the smug "genius" richies and faux Hollywood "pros" go under fast. Finally have good fucking movies again when they can't afford to produce the nth capeshit chock full of diversity and femshit nobody wants.

>>54118560
Sounds like the banks problem, not mine.

>>54118560
>Banks are holding TOXIC SHIT MORTGAGES
It's not 2008, retard. This is a nothing burger. You're just like the ''i support the latest thing'' ''muh landlords'' ''housing crisis'' retards on plebbit and twitter. ngmi, cope and seethe rentoid poorfag.

>>54119150
Quite a lot of banks are left holding heavy bags of tbills bought during the low interest rate period. The rate hikes didn't just affect MBS but also all other interest sensitive instruments.

>>54119334
*nervous hooming intensifies*

>>54119325
The bank owns your home.

>>54119421
So? If it fails some other schmuck will buy the asset at a discount. My rate is locked in nigger and I'm not selling.

>>54119450
>So? If it fails some other schmuck will buy the asset at a discount. My rate is locked in nigger and I'm not selling.
if the bank needs to they can force you out of the home if you don't pay immediately.

>>54119334
Let me guess Moomoo, you bought at the peak.
Heh.
Must suck. I'll make sure to push Nationwide property tax to the government.

>>54119421
I bought my home cash because it's shelter and I didn't want a bank to tell me they lost all my mortgage payment records after the cyber pandemic

>>54119462
Not in the US, baby.

>>54119421
That’s not how debt works

>>54118560
The Fed is allowing banks to borrow against those MBSs and long treasuries at par value. Problem solved.

>>54119513
Yes, it is.
The bank owns your home.

>>54118560
Idiot. They're worth LESS because rates have gone up. They are NOT WORTHless.

Same with any older bonds you have.

They are holding some toxic shit, just not mortgages, lol. Autp and Student loan backed securities are full of dog shit just like MBS were in 2008. The question is to what extent?

God willing.
I'm a zoomer and I just want affording a house out of pocket to be a real thing again. I don't even care if it's shitty. Having a roof over my head and ground under my feet that is 100% mine is living the dream.

>>54119391
t-bills have short term durations so they can get out of those easily...though a lot has happened in a year.
I've started parking a little cash in 30-day t-bills because why the fuck not. feels safer than keeping it in a bank.
Remember kids, you can buy t-bills direct from uncle sam www.treasurydirect.gov
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svhJEWbOoPY

>>54119537
problem deferred.

>>54119043
lol, cope

>>54119552
Varies from bank to bank, you have those that manage risk properly, then you have the retards at SVB who went all in on 10 year tbills.

>>54119550
>100% mine
It has never worked that way, anywhere, ever, in all of human history.

>>54119639
You have no idea what you're talking about, do you?

>>54119552
You can also just buy the TBIL etf. Faster and easier.

frothing at the mouth to buy into some REITs at discount and rake in those dividends forever

O to $40 LFG!

>>54119660
Semantics.
You know what I'm getting at.

>>54119462
>if the bank needs to they can force you out of the home if you don't pay immediately.
You are so wrong that it's hilarious that we share a board with you.

Not only can the bank never change the monthly amount or payment schedule from the agreed at signing terms, it takes them one to two years to even take legal possession for resale after foreclosure because of rights of redemption.

>>54119660
Yep. This is why you hodl collateral and keep a high credit score while being on good terms with taxes and the top warlords. It was always a game of lending and contracts. Ownership of things was always a sp00k.

>>54118560
2.9% here

MnO0ooOoo00ooOooo0Oooooo

>hoomers bragging about paying interest on their 30 year debt slavery contracts while I save enough cash to buy a home outright during the collapse

>>54119660
>Homesteaders have headed west and entered the chat

>>54119685
? Dude said tbill have a short duration, but it varies in length depending on which one you buy.

SVB held long term treasuries yielding an average of 1.79%, when current yields is nearly 4%.

If they sell, it will be worth less than what they paid for, because of the rise in rates. The bank run forced them to eat and realize the loss instead of waiting for it to mature and get the face value back.

>>54119716
definitely not safer when your brokerage collapses

>>54119917
Brokerage collapse shouldn't affect what assets you own.

>>54118560
Noooo my zesti-ACKK!!

>>54119966
oh sweetie

>>54120216
Assets are held in custody by law. You are not a creditor to you your broker.

>>54118560
>Banks are holding TOXIC SHIT MORTGAGES. because they lost their value due to the federal funds rate going to the moon.
this directly has no effect on home owners

>>54120344
see: >>54119150

>buys home for the sole purpose of owning property, starting a family etc
>pays off majority of the cheap mortgage relatively fast cause not a degenerate
>none of this will effect me
imagine being a rentoid.

>>54119539
>>54119421
im constantly astounded by the financial illiteracy on biz

>>54120360
yes, thats called... indirectly

>>54120362
>a collapsing economy won't effect me and my 150k crap shack that i put all of my self-esteem into

>>54120391
oh i see. you're just coping with semantics
typical of hoomers

>>54118560
Anyone with half a brain would have known with the insane housing prices that the bubble would have to collapsed.
I can't believe your retarded banks managed to fall for the same shit again.

>>54120408
no, im just pointing out the OP has cause and effect the wrong way round because there are people on biz so retarded, even several in this thread, who think the banks own people homes and can liquidate them

>>54120393
the cope in this post

>>54118560
I'm not moving anytime soon, so I don't care. My mortgage is less than 10% of my gross income.

>>54120434
house prices haven't come down at least substantially, the banks have fucked themselves because they locked up their capital in long duration treasuries and MBS because they needed the yeild when rates where super low. Inflation and increasing rates have raped the bonds so now they are underwater and cant get liquidity for their depositors.

MBS have fucked the banks even before the housing market took a down turn. A big part of it is due to the blow off top in the housing market during and just after covid.

>>54119840
They still were subject to property taxes.
t. Great-great grandfather homesteaded in 1908

>>54120516
And what happens when the housing prices start dropping? High interest rates turn people off of buying homes so that's only inevitable next.
These high interest rates seem to be creating the perfect storm.
Maybe if the didn't print all that money they wouldn't have to fight inflation.
This is just going to show just how much of a detriment a federal bank is cause no matter what they do they just amek things worse

>>54118560
The next crash won't be like 2008 you idiots. There won't be cheap houses on every single block like back then. Today, most houses are held by either:
>boomers who already paid them off and will leave them to their useless gen x children who will sell it to Blackstone or some other PE-backed management company
>a PE-backed management company

You will not be able to buy cheap houses anon. Owners will just hold. America is basically England now - the peasants do not get to own desirable land.

>>54120595
rates are going to come back down again and rapidly, the system will collapse in on itself with the current levels of debt. It is going to be inflated away which results in rising house prices. The bubble will still pop as commodities and services are going to rise faster, but they won't allow a crash.

>>54120700
>rates are going to come back down again and rapidly
All the news is saying that the fed is still intent on raising interest rates

>>54120700
This sounds a lot like the "Feds can't raise rates because they just can't ok?" cope from last year.

>>54120638
This. In 2022 private equity made something like 30% of all home purchases in the US, during a time of record high home prices. They can easily afford to pay $50k over asking price to BTFO any regular family trying to buy a house, I've seen it happen. Imagine how many homes they'd buy if there was a true crash.

>>54120844
and they can't as is evidence in the fact that they have blown up the financial system, despite the fact that official inflation is still higher than the rate of interest at all points on the yield curve.

Rates are negative in real terms, yet they have still been hiked to much for the system to sustain. They can't hike rates.

>>54120362
This guy gets it.
>Oh noes.....the housing market is collapsing this totally arbitrary number on zillow is falling.
>Bought my house 10 years ago at 3% 30 yr -fixed. Not an investment, not a business, just a place for my family to grow up in
>mortgage payment + tax is $1600/month. Never paying off early because you are retarded to do so with inflation over 8% y over y.
>will only sell in 12 years when my last of 4 children move out to college. don't give a shit about home price until then
A house is not an investment. Its a lucky crapshoot when and where you were born and worked, with only a few lucky people being able to relocate to low home price - high value local economy conditions. They might as well be unicorns. My family (who are awesome support network for my kids) and my wifes family (who are also awesome support network for my kids) are here as well as our gainful careers.

Even if I lose money on the house when I sell in 12 years, I WILL STILL HAVE LIVED PEACEFULLY AND SAFELY IN A HOUSE WITH MY FAMILY FOR 20 YEARS!!!

You can't take it with you brehs. Waiting for a bottom is waiting for a train that ain't coming. Except for the SE USA. Buying anything there in the next few years it batshit crazy.

Signature Bank held a 12% share of the bank CRE lending market in the New York metro area, and the firm's closure "will remove a significant source of liquidity in the New York commercial real estate market:"

You know what that means bucko??? what will happen once blackstone is force to liquidate those overpriced homes???

OPEN DOOR??

Hmmmm??

What will happen when you can't get a loan cause you need 30-40% down payment and your credit is shit???


People forget 2008 housing crash to 2012, it was hard to get a loan... HARD.....

>>54119016
Kek

Nice reddit spacing faggot. I digress, when we hit the peak of the next bullrun we should be in peak mortgage stress as short term fixed rates and variable rates are fucked with no one able to buy.. except crypto fags.

Some more reddit spacing for you. So im going to buy a couple houses at auction as auctions with no reserve will be the norm.

Stack sats and shitcoin casino gems
>profit

>>54118560

I don't think you understand. A housing crash would be the best thing that could possibly happen to me as a homeowner. I bought my house to live in it.

I run a side business selling an entirely unnecessary luxury. If people have to spend less on their housing they have more to spend on my bullshit.

It's all upside for anyone who isn't strictly rent seeking.

>>54120877
You are fucking stupid.. when there is a credit crisis's there is no liquidity for you to buy those homes idiot...

>>54120946
I was quite confused as to why the real rate is still negative if the feds is really so deadset on fighting inflation. Now I know why.

>>54121138
For you and I maybe

>>54120638
Hose listed for $1.8mil, auction price starts at $1.5 mil, no reserve and sold for $900k. Bought 2 yearrs ago for $1.2mil.
This happened on my street last week.
Dont look on fucking zillow, auction companies have to publicly share data of auctions in your area. Go check them out. Just because prices on zillow havent dropped doesnt mean shit

I'm-I'm HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIKING

>>54121138
they already own the homes and are planning to hold. see >>54120638

>>54121229
they will panic sell when they have more interest owed on the house than its worth

>>54118560
just check my 30 day zillow and it was up 2.8%

>>54121271
>blackstone will panic sell
>when they can hold for 3 years and just charge rent
kek

>>54121342
corps will be the first to dump their bags mongoloid

>>54118560
So what you're saying is that the people who took out a mortgage at those artificially low rates made a savvy investment?

>>54121342
>just charge rent
>along with everyone else who thinks they are going to do the same exact thing
>as record numbers of multi family dwellings come online year after year after year
LOL, let me guess, you are some shade of brown? (yes that includes you chinkoids/japs)

>>54118918
>But, there is no housing crisis at this moment.
We're at the very beginning. Just as the feds rolled back hikes near the beginning of 08, home prices began to drop up until 2011-12.
You are at the very beginning stages of 08, by this time next year, you'll hear the fat lady singing.

>>54121418
add on to that record high property tax bills and insurance.

>>54121151
not to be a faggot but this annoys me every time i see it. Its the fed, not the feds.

Its simple to understand if you look at this chart. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Generally speaking rates have gone down since the end of the gold standard. Every time they go up their is a recession, and as time goes on a crisis and a recession. Why is this? its because total debt in the system has increased. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
this chart is just government debt, but its the same pattern for household and businesses too. As debt increases a smaller the economy becomes more burden by the debt and more sensitive to interest rate rises. if you have $100 in debt at 1% you have to service $1 of interest per year, if you have $10000 in debt at 1% interest you have to service $100 per year.

As the system has to keep expanding as deflation means collapse, it needs lower rates, the lower rates and stimulus etc but eventually you run into the reality of negative interest rates and inflation meaning they hit the end of the road

>>54120700
i find it hard to believe they will be ok with runaway hyper inflation

>>54118560
The crash will be in real terms. Nominal will still be up rentie.

I love hoisin sauce is so sawty so so gud, twry it with pee keeng duck

>>54121611
You watch too much george gammon faggot. he is wrong...

>>54120638
yes everyone will hold
nobody will sell
keep coping, lol

>>54121614
laugh my ass off

>>54121611
if it crashes in real terms then renters still win lmao

>>54121579
whats the alternative though, its an unavoidable rock vs hard place scenario. If they don't hike more inflation will continue and gain pace, if they don't ease the banking system will implode. So they need to ease which will fuel inflation fast, inflation is what has caused the insolvency of these banks so the banks will get in an even worse position. Its a death spiral.

You have to understand, actual runaway hyperinflation is mostly a psychological and group dynamics scenario. The kindling for hyperinflation has already been laid, the current high inflation is now rubbing a stick back and forth faster and faster. All hyperinflation needs is the first spark which a collective understanding of the issue at hand here and a mass loss of confidence.

>>54119462
LMAO.

Guess what faggots there is a high amount of toxic mortgages because 99% of mortgages are under 6%...

The amount of toxic MBS is staggering. This is going to kill banks. Kill lending. Kill jobs.

Lending is going to freeze..

Prepare your anus your house just because became worth less.

>>54121672
i know right, does that idiot not know what he's saying? lol

>>54121674
well, hyperinflation is going to be bad for home owners too. have fun dealing with the hyperinflated costs of maintaining a home

either way, things are not lookin good for the hoomers

>>54121730
>This is going to kill banks. Kill lending
this is unironically a good thing
>Prepare your anus your house just because became worth less.
based. housing should have never been allowed to become this 30 year debt slavery by the kikes and prices would have never been able to escalate to this levels to begin with.

>>54121672
Rent will keep pace and tip will increase from 18% up to 20%

>>54120946
>they have blown up the financial system
they haven't. tightening rates mean poorly run businesses and banks that overextended themselves into bonds while giving loans to inflated tech companies will fail. That's the cost of rising rates, money isn't free, businesses need to actually operate effectively. Gotta cut the fat out of the economy. The rate hikes will increase, a few more high profile failures will happen, and the economy will be better for it.

>>54121763
are wages going to keep pace? because if not, rent cannot either

>>54121763
if houses go down in real terms they will just buy their own moron.
>NOOOOOOOOOOO I WILL HECKIN ENSLAVE EVERYONE AS A LANDLORD BECAUSE I AM OWED SEXXXXXX
jesus christ you incel larpers need to kys

>>54121772
Fed is already preparing to pivot. See the rally in bonds after depositors got bailed out.

>>54121772
are you retarded, if the fed didn't open their trash for cash service and the government didn't bail out all deposits from SVB your debit card would not have been working on monday morning. Every single bank is in the same boat, le businesses need to operate effectively, how is a bank supposed to survive a decade of 0% interest rates then a rapid hiking cycle mr business genius?

>>54121806
i'm telling you, these people bought a house for 150k and it's their ENTIRE source of self-esteem. it's really pathetic

>>54121201
do you know any good auction company websites?

>>54121542
>>54121459
>>54121455
>>54121418
>>54121416
Let's make bank

cos dot tv/videos/play/42961585568781312

>>54118560
Your wrong. After 2008 they invented bank bail ins. When the housing market crashes, only people with X in their bank account are going to pay. Doesn't matter if you're rich or poor, if you have that money, they will take it.

>>54121833
>NOOOOOO INTEREST RATES MUST REMAIN AT 0 FOREVER THAT IS THE ONLY WAY THE ECONOMY CAN FUNCTION

>>54121806
Someone's emotionally invested.
What's your plan if owning gets even further away? Willing to gamble and accept the consequences?

>>54121833
>how is a bank supposed to survive a decade of 0% interest rates then a rapid hiking cycle mr business genius
who's fault is this?

>>54121784
They haven't been keeping pace for years

>>54121865
Hahahaha

You want bail ins to save your home values. HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA

the current state of homie investorsssss

>>54121872
they can't stay at 0 because inflation is already running away. its over.

>>54121896
We are still stimulating the economy

>>54121830
>they have to pivot the market has already priced it in!
Picrel
>>54121833
>how is a bank supposed to survive
not my problem

>>54121874
only emotional people i see here are those who refuse to believe the hoom market is going to shit

>>54118560
>Banks collapsing due to rate hikes
>Fed will be forced to pivot
>Mortgage rates are already dropping
>RE stocks are up
>Somehow, housing will collapse....
This is the most retarded board

>>54121941
hyperinflation might make the price of your hoom go up but not in real terms, sweetie

in other words, i'll be able to buy your shitbox for 5 gold coins

>>54121941
>REEEE I WANT A CHEAP HOME
Idk man if you can afford it buy it.

>>54121115
This is a favorable outcome, prices will drop dramatically and only the ones hoarding cash will be available to buy with significantly less competition. ffs, 2020-2021 was atrocious with all the overbidding happening.

>>54121916
no there has been a decrease in the money supply in recent months and that blows up the system

>>54121963
>hoom prices can't crash because... they just can't ok???

>>54121941
It's just a bunch of idiots hyper emotionally attached to their already-in-motion investment plans looking for validation from other people already attached to their own, different plans.

>Zestimated losses: 90%
Zestimatesisters...

>house inventory remains low
>house prices still exceptionally high
Sorry rentcucks. You can keep praying for the market to crash but you'll be priced out.

>>54121985
prices can definitely go down, and they likely will in the coming months. But it's never going to be like 2015. The fed printed too much money, the banks can't even afford to buy out the debt, and the people priced out can't afford homes even if prices go down 20% because interest rates are going to be high enough to make up the difference in monthly payment. It's an uneven stalemate, and you're on the worse side.

>>54122033
posts like these just prove how out of touch hoomers are. it's pathetic. they are like a dinosaur right before the big comet hit

>>54122050
listen to what you just said
you said people can't afford to buy
and banks can't afford to lend
and yet you think prices aren't going to crash? the absolute state

now's the part where you act like nobody will sell a single house ever for the coming 10 years. everyone will just LE HODL, right anon? kek

>>54122085
good luck brother

>>54122112
>no argument

>>54121874
>What's your plan if owning gets even further away? Willing to gamble and accept the consequences?
yeah it's you schizo you are thinking these scenarios in your head and projecting. I inherited 2 homes, you own a bank note.

>>54122053
You keep complaining your rent is too high and there's not a damn thing you can do about it!
In 10 years your monthly payment will be double while my mortgage stays the exact same.

>>54122121
not gonna argue with you. I wish you the best.

>>54119016
Your either a drama queen or completely,
off the charts stupid. The only crisis/liquidity issue will apply to those who are still looking for a home, can’t afford their mortgage, or are butt-fuck-dumb enough to have a variable rate. Anyone already in their home who can afford their mortgage need not worry. Fuck you people are retarded.

>>54122145
like >>54122133
i actually inherited a million dollar home
so now what? you have nothing to say right? because your only "argument" is making fun of people who rent, right?

>>54121121
Holy fuck I'm a meme. They even got my beard right.

>>54122156
i accept your concession

>>54119462
You have to be single digit IQ. Where the fuck do you people come from? How did you get this dumb? Please explain

My Zestimate is still 60k over what I bought it for lol. Feels good to have a house in Florida.

>>54122179
You inherited a house from daddy and somehow that makes your views on the housing market valid. I don't think so, retard. Sit down and shut up while men are talking!

>>54122277
oh look now you're attacking my father for being successful
you hoomers definitely aren't unhinged and stupid at all. no sir

>>54121115
Also job cuts to tech sector because wfh is gay

>>54122295
Nobody is attacking your father. I'm going after your stupidity and naivete.

>>54122236
Hope it feels good enough to hold onto for several years longer.

>>54122423
try until he dies of old age
that's what these hoomers will need to do

If you read books like rich dad poor dad you will know that the numbers have to stack up before you buy.
It doesn't matter what the housing market does.
People who are 'caught out ' by a rate rise are first home buyers mortgaged to the hilt whose fixed term finished.

>>54122423
Uh yeah, it will considering everyone wants to live here lol. Feel bad for those who bought in flyover states.

I have a sad feeling like even if the market in general crashes, the homes in idyllic little towns that I'd like won't depreciate at all

So it begins again..

>>54119016
It will dry up for people who have low to mid credit scores. That will further reduce the number of buyers causing even more downward pressure on prices. As long as your credit score is good and your downpayment is ready there will be some good buys starting this summer.

>>54122508
Until a hurricane hits and you realize your insurance company has gone under and won’t pay for repairs.

True story

>>54122508
habla espanolo chola?

>>54122553
What about mining towns? Do you think they’ll boom when gold takes off?

>>54118560
My home gained value between this year and last year when I bought it. I've got over 100k in equity in a property I've got zero intention of selling.
If you live in your home to live in it, why would you care about muh property value? Low value just means lower taxes.

>>54121015
>Waiting for a bottom is waiting for a train that ain't coming. Except for the SE USA. Buying anything there in the next few years it batshit crazy.
Why do you say that? What is it about the SE USA?

>be mortgage underwriter
>made 125k in 2021
>now unemployed and the future is bleak and I probably won't have the same job for a few years because of how shit the mortgage industry is right now

What is a recession proof job I can go into, finance related which makes close to 100k?

>>54121614
based yanposter

Something has to break. If it doesn't, then there will be a millenizoomer uprising to squat Blackstone homes.

>>54124643
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-of-people-in-the-average-u-s-household-is-going-up-for-the-first-time-in-over-160-years/
Pablo and his 6 kids will take good care of the homes.

>>54124082
Insurance sales?

>>54119817
LOL, same buddy. On track to pay off house in 2 more years. I'll pay less in interest to "them" than the average car price. Soon I'll join the 40% paid off house master race then I won't give a fuck what happens to the housing market.

>>54123239
>why would you care about muh property value?
well as long as you admit your property values are going down (a lot), I have no beef with ya

At this point I don't even feel like arguing anymore events are now in motion and going much faster than I thought they would. The bubble was fueled by massive debt and speculation and now finding capital to do that will be hard to come by.

>>54124868
They're unironicly up. I live in an area that is still is pretty heavy demand.

>>54118560
Let me know when a $2.3 mil. single family ranch in San Diego goes back to 3-400k.

>>54125163
then i gots a beef with ya
nah jk. you'll be fine anon. at least yer property taxes be goin down soon

>>54124082
Debt collecting/repo agency

>>54124949
exactly. i just don't feel like arguing
the hand writin is on the wall

>>54122695
Lol
Lmao

>>54118560
Ah, another rentcel echo chamber thread that I can scroll through and laugh at the perpetually poor.

>>54118560
Joke's on you faggot. I bought in 2013 at low prices and then refinanced at 1.99% for 15 years. I will be done paying off this house in time for the next bull run. Just in time to hook my kid up for his first house. Cope, seethe, dilate and tongue my anus faggot.

>>54125398
>>54125410
cool
i inherited a million dollar house, unironically
how does that make ya feel

>>54124949
Desirable places to live never go down. They may crab. But never down. If you paid over $100k in nigger infested neighborhoods then you will be the crash. Houses on the beach however will never go down.

Here's a list of retard posts you will see in every hoomer thread:

>prices are up in my area
>well MY mortgage is fine!
>rentcuck trolling
>weird nonsensical strawmans where they accuse you of claiming things that you never said
>troll posts of affordable homes in nigger central

Housing is in a correction. Change my mind.

>>54125483
I have a beach front lot to sell you in atlantic city

>>54125483
>Desirable places to live never go down.
true. they also didn't go up nearly as much as other places during covid

>>54125483
check the SF bay area zestimate sweety

>>54125512
>read: nigger-infested neighborhood

>>54125483

The US has 400 million people in it and treating the entire market the same is retarded. No one here is claiming that they will get a penthouse in Manhattan for $50k. It's why they're talking about macro trends.

Different regions will move differently and even regions within regions will move differently. You also have to remember that housing is not a shitcoin and can take months or even years to move peak to trough.

What I'm mainly focusing on is the average person that bought the peak and is now house poor and getting eaten up by inflation. Banks are already failing and the normie is starting to be on rough financial footing.

Something is going to break.

>>54125597
finally, something sensible and reasonable

Anything under about 700k is still increasing approximately 10% YoY in my area (Ventura County). It's only the more expensive homes that are struggling to find buyers.

>>54125597
Where are all these new homes? Looking at listings there still aren't really any homes in my area for sale.

The only thing that is going to force sub 3% people out of their homes is job loss. Until unemployment goes down nothing changes.

>>54120066
HONEY, CHECK THE ZESTIMATE

>>54125868

From a macro standpoint we are now below covid lows and 2008 lows for sales.

>>54119421
and my mortgage is 2%, they're taking a bath on it

>>54125507
Prices are up in my area and my mortgage is fine. If you're a rent cuck you'll never afford a home. More rate hikes incoming.

>>54125579
yeah and was not long ago a very desirable location.

>>54118560
>2020-2022 with rates 2.5- 4% the MBS lost at least -50%
How the fuck dose that work?

>>54125892

Yes housing inventory is why there hasn't been a crash. Remember after the 2008 melt down prices didn't bottom until 2012 because people held on that long.

Right now no one wants to sell out of their low rates and they won't unless they are forced to. And that process can take months/years. I'm also wondering when places like opendoor will delcare bankruptcy.

>>54125398
I lie about how much money I make and how much money I save renting from you.

>>54125868
Came here to say this. My 900k house in the east bay is considered on the lower end and my comps are all still selling for the same price. Thankfully my shit is paid off and I have a deposit waiting for my next house. Now I just have to decide whether to sell my house and upgrade or slumlord it and use the deposit to pay for a condo.

>>54126090

>me me me me me

We are talking about the market not your boomer shack

>>54126163
this
even if individually you are in great shape, that doesn't mean jack shit for the greater market
if all you wanna do is brag about yer financials, go ahead. but that doesn't mean housing isn't on the precipice of a giant crash

>>54126163
Look lil homie Im 38 and not trying to brag, and both my comment and the one I (you)'d can be considered investment advice. The lower end of the housing market is not getting fucked because that's all people can afford. The high end ones are getting fucked. Wait three four months and there is going to be a solid entry point for housing.

>>54126239
>The lower end of the housing market is not getting fucked because that's all people can afford.
...for now

>>54126239

No the housing market ground to a halt because the lower end just disappeared and there was no "starter homes" or "fixe uppers." Houses that had problems or were old/small and would have gone for an affordable price all got jacked up hundreds of thousands of dollars above the prices above the buying range of the people who would actually have bought a starter home or fixxer upper.

During the peak of the bubble there was no lower end of the housing market.

>>54126292
Im not trying to defend the fucked up situation in america. I want the younger generations to be able to buy houses, because otherwise we will have a lot of angry mother fuckers out there. I bought my 40yo house and spent 5 years fixing it myself (not fun). I was only able to afford it because of the '08 crash... Here's all Im trying to say. Everything is going to drop but the lower end will not drop as much. The 1.5mill houses I was looking at are now selling for 1.2 while my house has probably lost 20-30k. If my shit goes down to 500k I will be even happier. Why? Because then that Mcmansion I want will only be 800k and you fuckers will be finally able to afford starter homes. Good luck young bloods.

>>54122508
>Uh yeah, it will considering everyone wants to live here lol.
When the work stacies and news started to say this I knew it was a top signal. I'm going to be buying a home in WPB for 33% off in the next year or two.

>>54118560
I don't know man, at least my rent didn't go up $250 this year like the rentoids in my city got. At least I've got my dirt, and a job that is nearly infinitely secure. I'd have to commit multiple major fuckups or a felony to get da axe.

The only REAL way housing crashes is.
1. Houses start popping up like herpes
2. Plague
3. Federal Government makes it cost prohibitive to own more than 1 or more than X number of properties
4. Banning foreign property ownership.
5. Somehow the US makes the equivalent of chinese ghost cities, but they actually work. However, there's zero incentive to be the first person to move into an empty city.

>>54124082
>recession proof job
Have you considered Government work? lol

>>54126554
rent is collapsing in most areas, or at best stagnant

>>54126554
6. people start defaulting on their mortgage.

>>54126554
Lol, you left off depression, global war, and mass boomer retirement/death.
Can't wait to slurp cheapies from you retards who bought at the peak.

>>54126163
>the market
Who gives a fuck, you're not buying a statistical average of housing divided across 50 states

>>54122237
>Where the fuck do you people come from?
it's /pol/
the answer is /pol/

>>54119539
Wrong. Learn the difference between a deed and note. One gives legal ownership and it isn’t to the bank (mortgagee)

>>54126651
lol, haven't seen this cope before
what's fascinating is the creativity of the copes as we get further and further along the real estate bear market

>>54119817
2.625% on a 15 year loan

>>54126803
>you may have appreciating entry-level California property, but tyrone's crackden in Columbus just depreciated another 20k, bet you're not so smug now

>>54126941

Why would you care if you're so safe and secure? Unless...something is bothering you?

>>54118560
>There is a storm coming
Keep getting rent raped while I pay $1250/mo for a house on 5 acres overlooking national forest. I rent the garage apartment for 1k/mo. My house has a hot tub and sauna and barn for my toys. Rentoid is basically paying for my housing. Cozy place to ride out a storm.

>>54120066
not her only asset

>>54118560
NOOO it hasnt my mom is gonna sell her house for a nice fat fuckin price and im gonna stay be NEET and not fuckin wagecuck like all you fudgeasses

>>54119450
>My rate is locked in nigger
read the fine print

>>54118560
If the boomers never shutdown all of society over the fear THEY might die of the flu they might have been able to just avoid the crash but since they forced the lockdowns on everyone they speed it up. In the end it was the boomers who solved the boomer problem.

>>54119450
>So? If it fails some other schmuck will buy the asset at a discount. My rate is locked in nigger and I'm not selling.
Not your house you stupid fucking nigger, long as you have a mortgage it's the banks house not yours. Learn to read fine print

>>54119783
Man you're in for a rude shock lmao

>>54118560
>all mortgages that were written from 2020-2022 with rates 2.5- 4% the MBS lost at least -50% in value
Homeowner here that bought in 2021. Just dropped in to say not my problem. My fixed rate low monthly payment is comfy. I'm not going anywhere. Why would I?

>>54119817
1.7 fr for another 18 years. Up a solid 250%. feelsgoodman.jpg

>>54128917
Christ you people are retarded.

>>54120700
Runaway inflation is more of a liability than an economic crisis. This is what Powell has been telling you for more than a year now. They will crash it, they will buy it at pennies on the dollar avnd they will use it to pass more legislation.

>>54118560
You guys are so negative. Why would the house prices plumb?

The only time that is going to happen is once we can travel to mars and have a colonoization there. It will take many many years.

>>54122145
So will your property taxes when your decrepit vinyl siding water damaged shithole is assessed at 25 million dollars.

>>54127142
Hello, landlord? Yes the toilet is broken. Need you to come fix it. Oh btw there’s a moratorium. Not paying until it’s over. Thanks. Smoking inside? No I’d never do that! I’ve never smoked a cigarette in my life *coughs*

>>54129007
Do you know what’s a bigger liability for the federal government? Having a budget. Bye bye Medicaid. Bye bye social security. Bye bye EBT. Bye bye defense contracts! Bye bye bureaucracy. We can’t print money anymore sorry. *Gets thrown out off office or worse*

Politicians WILL choose inflation. It’s the nature of liberal democracy

>>54118560
I got in at those rates in the middle of covid, everyone who fomo'd into buying last year exists for me to laugh at.
This is sweeter than buying oxy when 'smart money' thought it would fail.

>>54119091
Just waiting for retards to capitulate on all regional banks.
Then I go in big.

>>54119462
I hope my bank tries this so I can sue them into the underworld.

>>54119539
The bank owns the debt you agreed to lol.
I know how you got this stupid: you constantly lose on investments and rather than face the reality of your retardation you think other people must be cheating. This cope actually makes you fail more, creating a vicious cycle.

>>54129007
to a point. if debit cards and atms stop working because the credit freezes up you have a far bigger problem than inflation. this is what will happen:
- one more rate hike by 0,25% then pause and pivot at next "credit event"
- more not-QE to keep the system from imploding
- the cpi will be hedonically adjusted in order to come in line with expectations (around 4% by summer)
- inflation target will be raised to 3%
- golden bullrun until 2026 when fake inflation comes back at 12 %
- at this point interest rates can no longer be meaningfully raised without killing the system due to the debt burden
- new crisis and banking system locks up completely
- implement cbdcs with negative rates for the plebs

>>54124022
Florida prices are ridiculous from people fleeing commie areas driving demand. Proving they are eternal retards in the process.

>>54129539
>pivot
i'll be laughing if the fed just keeps hiking until inflation is gone, simply because the dollar as a reserve currency can't sustain 70s tier inflation.

TWO MORE WEEKS!!

I SWEAR HOUSING WILL CRASH.. IN JUST TWO MORE WEEKS!!!!

>>54129905
inflation can by design never disappear in a fractional reserve system, it can only be disguised

>>54118560
GOOD

DADDY NEEDS A HOUSE

I WANT TO SLURP THE HOUSING DIP, WHAT SHOULD I DO WITH MY MONEY RIGHT NOW

>>54120750
The fed has to pretend it's committed to fighting inflation for two reasons:

1. Politically unacceptable to admit gov doesn't care.
2. Gov debt can only be sold if there are buyers (unless you're Japan, I guess). Who wants to buy USTs if they KNOW inflation is going to be >4% for a long time? So FED has to pretend it won't be, which means pretending to fight it.

But they can't fight it. Government debt and spending deficit is too great. Unlike many Euro and Asian countries, US gov didn't take advantage of ZIRP-er to refinance to long-term debt at low rates, so now it's rapidly turning over whilst they're also trying to reindustrialise AND fight an economic war with China and Russia AND subsidise a real war with Russia AND prepare for a real war with China AND turn over their entire infrastructure to enable 'green energy' AND transform their entire society in accordance with woke doctrine AND subsidise mass boomer retirement AND the entire hoverning apparatus is structurally incompetent.

Higher for longer inflation is the only choice. But they have to pretend it isn't.

>>54119840
>demolishes your house for the railroad

>>54120946
So sick of this argument from vested interest wagie fucks who are being crushed by their debt.
Guess what no one gives a fuck if your business collapses, the elites and govt prefer the economy to get fucked than to let you challenge their infljuence.
They also know that we need to free up wealth from the greedy plebs to the next generation of greedy plebs

>>54121579
>>54121674
Higher inflation does not automatically result in hyperinflation. I know it's a /pol/ shibboleth, but it's simply not true.

Weimar Germany is one of the very few pieces of economic history that anyone has heard of, so they assume that it's some inevitable consequence of inflation that it will spiral to 1,000,000% if left unchecked. It doesn't. Weimar inflation was actually a cynical attempt by the German government to get out of paying crippling reparations and war debt by the inflation of Marks into absurdity (this kinda worked, until the French simply seized the Ruhr instead). Also, contrary to popular belief, the hyperinflation had long ended (almost a decade) before Hitler was elected Chancellor. The other hyperinflation everyone knows about, Zimbabwe- well, that was fucking Zimbabwe. The country completely stopped functioning after the Whites were evicted.

Many European countries successfully ran very high-inflation regimes post-WW2 to get rid of crippling war debt. It never span out of control into hyperinflation.

Even the modern US government could run a high inflation regime- that, yes, would fuck over what remains of the middle class- without spiralling into Weimar-esque hyperinflation. I dont think that will be a good thing. I think it will cause a lot of dissent, but not completely collapse. And, as commented, I think it's the only choice they have left: >>54130222

>>54129475
you wont do shit hoomie

>>54128934
Nice work paying that usury because you bought at the peak of house prices in human history, keep up that wagie job til your 60

>>54119838
This. What's funny is how they will all deflect and say
>"s-see my 1.5% interest rate while you'll have ton contract a 5% one you stupid cuck!"
While that's exactly what I wanted. I don't care if the interest rate is high. I WANT it to be high. I want it to be high so the base prices of the home -the only thin that matters- get down. Especially as I saved my cash for that very reason, but even there it's a non issue, as I'll STILL contract that sweet 5% loan.
And then I'll do like the boomers when the rate inevitably go down again, recontracting to lower rates. All while I secured buying the home at a low base price.
tl;dr follow the boomers. Always do what the fucking boomers did.

>>54127313
HONEY, CHECK THE BOOBSTIMATE

>>54121342
>just charge rent
to whom

>>54131990
Man she’s suffering from heavy inflation

>>54127313
sauce?

>>54128917
Can councilor site precedent?

>>54118560
The problem in 2008 wasn't that MBS had low yields, it was that they were all defaulting.

High rates are making people significantly LESS likely to sell or move. They aren't the same thing.

The bigger problem will be all the 7% mortgages getting defaulted on when they go underwater at high rates lol. The more financially literate will realize default is the smart move there.

>>54121579
>The economically illiterate once again confuse periods of 5-10% inflation, or even 20% inflation with hyperinflation.

The definition of hyper inflation is an annual increase of 13,000%. You're several orders of magnitude off.

big boy 45mil realestate portfolio here

22%LVR so rate rises aren't hurting me, im snatching property from the landpoors with 1-5 properties as they liquidate

barely raising my rents, tennants love me, have agreements with some to rennovate my houses for discounted rent and covered material costs, win-win

that being said...

>>54125398
less demand for homes mitigates capital growth, meaning you can't charge rentoids as much despite your increasing mortgage payments

think about it this way, if rental demand could simply absorb rent price rises, why the fuck wouldn't landlords have done that before rates rose?

difference now is that you're raising rent on a market with less disposible income, and wage-inflation gape widening

but go off i guess, if revelling in tennants' bad luck is how you find happiness, do the right thing and off yourself when they eventually leave and buy a house