/biz/ - Business & Finance

bump
Let's have some real fucking discussion for a change instead of fudding and shilling.
Come on niggers. give me your predictions for next rate hike.

>>54116142
well they said they would be data-driven, and some banks just failed. so that's data. three crypto-related banks just failed.
+25 basis points

>>54116142
They can't raise rates with banks failing lmao. They can try but it isn't going to work out well for bankers over the next 12 months. Sorry bobos

>>54116214
How do you think the markets will react to the rate hikes seemingly plateauing?
I think we could see a dump unless they start printing more money then will shoot to the upside.

>>54116142
>if
Not if, when. I'm in finance and our internal discussions have concluded that not only is 25 bps increase inevitable next week, but that the statements will remain hawkish and likely another 25 bps at the next meeting before holding until July.

>>54116278
Any idea if they will start QE again to bail out the banks?

>>54116278
You're retards then. The next bank about to fail.

Now they can hike rates and print money at the same time, with the excuse of protecting deposits. A new episode of clown world is starting.

>>54116142
This doesn't actually matter anymore.

Real talk. He'll keep raising rates till inflation is made 3%. The new facility the rolled out lets them "bailout" banks and keep raising rates.
Now lets see what breaks next.

>>54116142
>>54116257
>>54116278
>>54116566
>Joe Biden, age 81
>Nancy Pelosi, age 82
>Mitch McConnell, age 81
>Janet Yellen, age 76
>Tom Vilsack, age 72
>Jerome Powell, age 70
>Merrick Garland, age 70
>Marcia Fudge, age 70
>Jared Bernstein, age 69

They know, but they don't care. It's literally not their problem. They'll all be dead in 10 or so years. All that matters is that they keep the cow alive while they milk it to death. They won't live to see the catastrophic consequences of their behaviour.

How do the hikes work? Is it 25 on top of an existing value or 25 flat out?

>>54116257
They will because otherwise they will fall at their #1 task (inflation under control) so they will not hesitate to create another 2008.
BTC may finally show his strenght (before it gets banned because boomer become mad people go into BTC to avoid a bank crisis instead of gov products)

>>54116617
flat out

>>54116142
a dump, market is pricing in 0 basis points

Markets would pump. But you know that this nigga is gonna go beyond 25 benis points.

>>54116681
Your mistake is believing the inflation target is 2% and their primary responsibility. In both cases you're wrong. Of course that is in writing so midwits like yourself believe it.

They started raising rates after people complained about inflation. Now people care more about getting their money out of their banks. The real inflation target is what normies are willing to live with.

>>54116613
>implying these ghouls don't have fresh blood transfusions and organ donors on tap
Our glorious leaders are eternal

>>54116142
I hope it's 50bps for maximum seethe

>>54116461
Last week the surveys were leading towards 50 bps, market overreacted on Friday-Monday and J Pow ain't budged for the last 6 months when pantshitters kept screaming pivot. He ain't budging now, particularly with equities above pre-SIVB levels.

>>54116833
Nobody cares about SVB, no normie has money there. Normies care about being able to afford food. There is a big margin to get higher rates before you start about lowering them and before you see real banks falling (all these over leveraged meme banks like SVB involved in shitcoins to boot will be reasonable casualties in order to make inflation manageable so the average fellow can actually survive)

>>54116257
>They can't raise rates with banks failing lmao
They have to or else hyper inflation is on the cards
>They can try but it isn't going to work out well for bankers
Don't be silly, bankers aren't going to lose. The only people allowed to lose are average joes. They will have bail-ins and take depositors money to cover their bad bets. The stupid normies who don't dump their savings into crypto will be footing this bill with bail-ins, it's pretty much the only option that works for the elite.

>>54116913
With equities tearing up right now, I wouldn't put it past J-Pow.

>>54117207
I love seeing the desperate people say they can't raise rates. They most definitely can and will raise rates if it means not losing reserve currency status. That shit matters, because how else will you pay for the world' largest military force? Every American, even if they hold Bitcoin or whatever, benefits from higher rates unless they have security in other military forces.

>>54117267
Exactly. Protecting the dollar is by far the number 1 interest, so they will continue to raise rates.

But they also won't allow banks to fail otherwise that will result in having to print more money for bail outs which puts more pressure on the dollar, in a vicious feedback loop.

Instead they keep increasing rates and let banks bail-in themselves with depositors money. The average joe loses 90% of his savings, which decreases inflation and the banks bad bets are covered. Job done.

Then to calm all the normies you issue a central bank crypto currency and give them like $10,000 each on the mint of it. Because they see that the only people who survived were the people who put all their savings into BTC, they are sold a centralized crypto as the final solution to the banking problem. So essentially, they all end up owning nothing and being happy.

>>54116532
This. The myth that BTC cares about rate hikes is about to finally die as we continue to decouple.

>>54117636
>They'll use a CBDC to protect the reserve status of the dollar, which will undermine the first goal of protecting the status of the dollar(won't use it in their own country), to protect average joes they don't care about
You guys keep reaching further and further for this CBDC fetish that just isn't on the table right now.

>>54117902
The key issue is if they turn on the money printer.
If the DXY dumps we're going to the moon.

>>54116205
Nobody will care. Everyone already pricing in 1 more hike then u turn
This nog raises 50 bp and its over

>>54116142
He will continue to raise rates and more banks will collapse.

He doesn't have a choice.

>>54118026
>Finally, I have my first million. Time to see what I can afford
>Anon goes to store, strolls in in his nicest clothes imitating what he thinks is a richie strut
>Bread is 2 million

>>54116142
my best guess would be 25 basis point hike and then pause.

>>54118068
kek.
But at least we'll be in wiemar 2.0 that means great things will happen in 2038. great things.

>>54116278
Volker raised rates up to 20%. I think the party is just getting started. The bailouts will biblical.

They will raise.
War is inflationary and they need to try and slow the inflation down.
Protecting the dollar.
Fuck I am glad I have no debt. Zero. Zilch. Nada.
Any of you fuckers with ARMs or Credit Card debt are gonna get fucked hard.
JFC - they are going to crater the US economy in 2023. This was just the opening act.

>>54118711
anon knows.

in order for inflation to become disinflation (the target here) the effective interest rate from the federal reserve has to exceed the CPI.

Until then it's all just catching up.

>>54116142
The way Powell is handling this is starting to bother me. Everything is a deflect away from the real cause of inflation.

Price gouging on fuel
In return, price gouging by manufacturing. The people that manufacture all your shit are enjoying 5% yields on bonds tax free. So why would they want rates to lower if they can earn 50 million dollars on a billion tucked away.

Not only that but the banks are failing because the government is paying a better premium for deposits

>>54117207
They will ban crypto exchanges dumping the price. Solid banks will have safe deposits. Anything fance will fill bankruptcy. Anyway don't have anything higher than 100k per account.

>>54118141
Yeah getting your goods confiscated by the local commie/fascist oligarchs is such a great thing.

>>54116142
50bps minimum

>>54116142
>Another 25bips
>Right after he clearly stated higher and longer.

>>54116613
I haven’t thought of this, I knew boomers were solipsistic greedy arrogant retards but I never factored in a suicidal element to their mania.

>>54117636
>The average joe loses 90% of his savings
the average joe has 2.5 million apparently
>business & finance board

>>54116142
Everytime there is a hint of a pivot, the stock market shoots up. There is no way Powell doesnt realize he needs to keep going hard if he even wants to hope to curb inflation. These bankers went too far with this stock rise.

>>54116617
It’s a 25 bps increase to the federal funds rate.

>>54116142
You niggers pumped the stock market the week after a bank went over, if you think he is going to stop raising rates in this mania you are delusional

>>54116142
.25 hike is pretty much a lock. 79% chance as of today. The CPI number today showed that inflation isn't coming down as fast as they need. So they keep hiking for now. They should never have stopped doing .50 hikes in reality.

Just watch the Fed watch tool, this is the real market based on Fed Funds Futures that pros are putting real money on.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

>>54117267
They will print more money and go deeper into debt because of the higher interest rates, this ponzi scheme is coming to an end one way or the other.
There's no such thing as a free lunch. It is a governing dynamic of economics.
The United States of America must pay for this era of consumption.

>>54119034
Are you European? If you're not using a credit card in America you are retarded. APR doesn't hit until you have outstanding debt and only Nissan Sentra drivers let that happen.

>>54116142
SHIBagholders. you are SHIBagholding.

>>54116142
More bank failures, ignore the "crypto bank" meme, these banks predated crypto by a lot and as far as we know they went to total shit due to having uninsured low interest bonds.

Given the speed of rate rises there are probably 40 more banks larping they are fine with the same problem.

And the scale of the bailouts is massive, this two fucking banks insurance is already 20% of the yearly united states military budget.

There is 4155 more banks if you think they will be able to check their health in a week you are deluded.

>>54118711
Volker had way lower debt to gdp ratio, at current debt levels the usa goes 100% bankrupt at 12% interest rates and that is 12% with a growing economy since most taxes depend on economic activity thanks to keynsian degenerates creating progressive taxes.

If the economy slows downs the us goes bankrupt at 8.5% interest rates, and if you have stagflation around 6%

>>54119531
The only way out is through aka inflating the debt away,

Raising rates will lead to more inflation at this point due to bailouts and service on the debt.

Wealth taxes and other stupidity the democrats want is stagflationary as hell which actually reduces tax income and makes servicing the debt harder.

We are at late stage keynsianism

>>54116214

They don't give two fucks about crypto banks lmao.

I agree with other anons, I think they're going to stick with their original rate target and do a couple more 25bps rate increases, then keep it there. But I also think Fed is going to ditch the 2% inflation goal if we continue to see reduced inflation but those increases aren't enough to get it that low. They might just have to live with 3-4% inflation for the foreseeable future.

>>54125394
Yes, the market is pricing in .25 hikes for the next bunch of meetings so they are staying the course. I also agree that the Fed will move its target and accept 3% inflation when/if they get there.

>>54125325
Hi they actually just insured every deposit in the country. This has added trillions in unfunded liabilities to the federal govt, and while the FDIC is essentially just a money printer that used to go up to 250k, and now ad infinium, they've basically made the insurance unlimited, and that will probably prevent bank runs.
liquidity is still scarce things could happen but I don't see retail withdrawing in mass.
The value of what they are withdrawing however....

>>54125394
Yup, long term we need inflation to keep the Ponzi going. With the amount of eyes on the rates, I'm guessing we see rate hikes to applease the public, but also a pivot QT into QE and more bailouts, effectively loosening financial conditions.

The machine to extract wealth from the poors is getting ever more efficient.

>>54125668
>Yes, the market is pricing in .25 hikes for the next bunch of meetings so they are staying the course. I also agree that the Fed will move its target and accept 3% inflation when/if they get there.

They were pricing 6% interest by eoy they are now pricing lower rates by eoy.

There is 0% chance of interest rate rise, i don't think morons realize the scale of this shit, two fucking banks 20% of the yearly us military budget while russia keeps the war in europe.

Raising rates can literally collapse the usa Argentina 2001 style.

Also not sure why they think it will lower inflation, bank bailouts increase inflation and so does servicing the debt at higher rates.

That game is over.

>Hi they actually just insured every deposit in the country. This has added trillions in unfunded liabilities to the federal govt, and while the FDIC is essentially just a money printer that used to go up to 250k, and now ad infinium, they've basically made the insurance unlimited, and that will probably prevent bank runs.

They said that to prevent a bank run but there is no law or regulation saying that they will do it with these 3 banks to prevent more chaos.

But these 3 fucking banks is already 20% of the us military budget in a few days , if more banks fail they will not insure shit above 250k because it's mathematically impossible unless you want 70% inflation rate by eoy.

>liquidity is still scarce things could happen but I don't see retail withdrawing in mass.

The money is moving to "too big to fail banks" which unironically makes the banking system more dangerous (this is why they are trying to larp they will insure 100%).

>>54125758
>Yup, long term we need inflation to keep the Ponzi going. With the amount of eyes on the rates, I'm guessing we see rate hikes to applease the public, but also a pivot QT into QE and more bailouts, effectively loosening financial conditions.

Maybe what Hayes tough last year will happen, rate rises with brrrrrrrrrrrr on the side but i don't see it.
If the problem is banks having a lot of shit bonds rising rates is dangerous as it makes those bonds even shittier.

I think powell comes next week and says 0 rise due to stress on the banking system

>>54116205
He will work in the interests of the banks that own the FED so his employers.
He will do everything to kill all vulnerable banks with the hikes so that later on the bigger sharks aka his jewish employers can buy them up for cheapies.
He even got a societal acceptance cushion from the government, they will bail out the clients(not investors because they want to get rid of the investors).
So yes there will be hikes there will be seizure and then there will be CBDCs.

>>54116142
chad powel will go 500 benis boints and crush all zombie banks and corporations,
I will be happy to dig ditches by hand for the next few years while the rest of you limp wristed faggots starve just to save the american dollar.

>>54125141
>The United States of America must pay for this era of consumption.
But we won't. We'll just kick the can down the road Clown World-style into the CBDC where algorithms and shit will sort it out for us. Its our right.

>>54116142
Rate hikes stop now, 75bps in april

>>54118711
You're a retard. Overall debt was way lower under volker and moreover rate of increase matters far more than absolute number. When loans roll over an increase from a loan from 1% to 2% is substantially more impactful than one from 10% to 15%.

>>54116142
50 spot lfg

>>54127297
We'll see soon enough. Are you putting your money where your mouth is? You better not have a dollar of cash on you, faggot.

>>54118021
Powell literally said they're working on it to congress last week.

>>54116142
I put my bets on him not hiking and not cutting
just to test the waters

>>54120194
If WWII fashion comes back with Kanye's brand I'll wear clown make up everyday until I die

Why is there so much terrible broken English ITT

>>54117267
It’s not that they think they can’t do it. It’s that if they do they won’t be able to pay the interest on the debt. Leading to a distaste one way or another.

>>54116142
>What're the chances he turns on the money printer again?
It's already running again

>>54127421
We need flags. Sign the petition.

>>54116278
people have to be fucking retarded to believe the things you are saying. they overaggressively raised rates and something finally broke. and it could have (and still might be) much worse than what we've seen so far. the fed is going to halt, observe for a few months, CPI will start to downtrend, inflation will go negative, and then they will pivot. 25/50 are out of the question for the next meeting and anyone listening to these shills deserves to lose all of their money.

>>54124839
Beatings will continue until morale improves

>>54117267
>because how else will you pay for the world' largest military force?
Before the rate hikes the interest on the debt was 300b after the rate hikes is at military cost 700b or so.

This is a losing game no matter how you look at it.

>>54127550
>the fed is going to halt, observe for a few months, CPI will start to downtrend, inflation will go negative, and then they will pivot. 25/50 are out of the question for the next meeting and anyone listening to these shills deserves to lose all of their money.
That's not going to work they almost never hold the current rate they're very reactionary.

Either they want to crack a few more banks and raise or they pivot because the system is on life support.

>>54127588
>Either they want to crack a few more banks and raise or they pivot because the system is on life support.

less than 72 hours ago the fed made a statement that all depositors across all banks will be covered by any means necessary. it's time for them to halt, see the delayed effects of prior rate hikes (which were way too aggressive to begin with), and ultimately when inflation starts to dip severely in the coming months they will pivot. we're done with aggressive hikes imo. but this is the last I will comment on the topic because I prefer to watch the incels and faggotzis lose their money believing the reversepsy signals spewed all over this cesspool of a board

>>54120985
They’ve been programmed by the TV, their main source of information, to hate the younger generations
There should not be people this old in charge it’s a crime and it will define everything that goes wrong
Their parents generation didn’t do this to them
But they won’t pass on the torch
They have been brainwashed completely

If there's nothing they can do about bitcoin they might as well silently try to build a position into it and jump ship when they're ready and when everyone else is not, I don't think they will risk a war on bitcoin because they can lose and if they will it will be worse for them, it will be over

>>54127550
No chance. The Fed is doing .25 next week unless the probability for .25 drops well below 70% in the next few days. The market is pricing in 25 currently. The Fed never hikes when there isn't at least a 70% chance of them orchestrating their move. If they did nothing in the meeting the market might really freak thinking there is something really bad that the market doesn't know about that the Fed does. Fed isn't looking to crash things.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

>>54116142
they already did

>>54116142
to the moon baby.

>>54125857
>20% of the yearly us military budget while russia keeps the war in europe
Okay, now do this, but with the actual shortfall, and not the total assets under management of the bank. The USG stepped in with a fraction of the assets under management to make everybody whole, in order to just make it happen quicker. Even without intervention, you were looking at 90%+ made whole, if you could stomach the time. I'm so tired of doomers.

>>54125394

It doesn't matter what jpow does, the US is fucked
>raises 25-50
liquidity crunch, banking system fails
>raises 25-50 but turns on the printers for the big guys
small banks eat shit, inflation continues, dollar dies
>does nothing or pivots to QE
dollar dies
the Great Satan WILL die and drag down the degenerate west with it

>>54116142
He said there's going to be some pain

Rates will hike or the USD dies. Depression or hyperinflation. There will be suffering.
>Verification not required.

>>54116142
25 bepis is within expectations

>>54116142
If I am sure of one thing its Jpows confidence in sticking to his plan. We are getting .50 bp and no less.
He is literally the captain who thinks “This boat is way bigger than that iceberg”
Is there somewhere online to actually bet on it being a .50 or a crypto or something buyable tied to rates? Plz link me if so.

>>54128750
Short bank stocks. They'll all dip hard on the news.

>>54127325
I have about £300

>>54116142
>if
lol
if you only knew how bad things were about to get

>>54116142
he'll do +50 points and people will realize what the word consistency really means.

>>54118068
literally dont give a shit, i wanna be debt free. bring on $60 bread if i can pay off my student loans finally.

FIFTY BASIS POINTS

FLUSH THE SYSTEM

IN POWELL WE TRUST

He will keep raising rates until the market stops trying to frontrun the pivot

If there's enough cash in the system to pump the market after a top 20 bank failed then rates aren't restrictive enough yet

>>54116613
I fucking hate boomers so God damn much

>>54119034
>no debt during the inflationary cycle
Lol.
Lmao.

>>54116613
yep. nothing is going to happen until every single boomer has had a comfortable retirement.

>>54127680

>>54116142
Banks get another run on their cash to pay for the mortgages and so more banks will go bust, to be fair if they don't raise the interest rates inflation will do the exact same thing lol

Imagine having a mortgage right now kek

>>54116833
this. they can just hedonically adjust the cpi and raise inflation target to 3% as long as normies eat it up

>>54129975
so long as a whopper costs double what it did two years ago, normalfags don't care what the cpi says

furthermore, even if goyslop prices stabilized, what normalfags REALLY care about is whatever their favored partisan talking head is saying. if red man/blue man says inflation is out of control, then inflation is out of control

>>54130035
red man/blue man will get the memo and inflation will be "falling" and "under control"

>>54127680
>Their parents generation didn’t do this to them
Because there were more Boomers than their parents.The Boomers started wielding political power as soon as they could and threw their parents into retirement homes as quick as possible. It’s why the Boomer fears the retirement home, they know the hell they put their parents though in the end.