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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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54107291 No.54107291 [Reply] [Original]

> If you thought SVB was bad ... The Fed is sitting on unrealized losses of ~$1.2 trillion on their $8.3 trillion bond portfolio.

> And the Fed is losing money every day by paying $$$ to commercial banks via reverse repos.

> https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1635381770089816072

> https://federalreserve.gov/publications/files/quarterly-report-20221129.pdf
page 22

> JPMORGAN CHASE, CITIGROUP AND OTHER LARGE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ARE TRYING TO ACCOMMODATE CUSTOMERS WANTING TO MOVE DEPOSITS QUICKLY - FT

> https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1635481386311368704

How bad could it be?

>> No.54107297 [DELETED] 

>>54107291
>How bad could it be?
>>>/pol/
They are the real experts. Fuck off.

>> No.54107298

>>54107291
But it's their own bonds. They can just write it off.

>> No.54107317
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54107317

>>54107297
This website is garbage

You fags are saying post banking stuff on pol while pol is saying post it on biz

The Feds are working overtime tonight

Fags like you should be banned but obviously you're a janny or Fed

>> No.54107323
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54107323

>>54107291

> Twitter screencap
> Using Twitter as a source for ANYTHING

>> No.54107326

>>54107291
>> And the Fed is losing money every day by paying $$$ to commercial banks via reverse repos.

So disinflation? Which means Fed pivot soon? Time to DCA in RBLX.

>> No.54107327
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54107327

>>54107297
Thank you for your non expert input

>> No.54107349

>>54107291
Those are mark-to-market loses. If I own a bond I purchased at .96/1.00 and now its trading at .90/100 I have a marked loss of 6 cents. Doesn't mean anything about the fact that if I hold the bond until maturity I get the full 1.00 so none of it matters.

Wall Street Silver is a total hack who has no understanding of finance and Glenn Beck can be tongue my anus.

>> No.54107354

>>54107291
>Glenn Beck
kek, I forgot he existed

>> No.54107369

>>54107354
Except all that crazy stuff he said in 2008 turned out to be true.

>> No.54107380

>>54107349
Are you going to lock your money up in that for years to make 4% when inflation is much more than that

Are the member banks going to just eat losses and change rules while promoting diversity?

None of this makes any sense

>> No.54107408
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54107408

the fed can print money, they dont care about making money on their bond purchases, just influences rates and financial conditions.

>> No.54107431

>>54107323
>not only is it a Twitter screenshot
>it’s a Twitter screenshot of a redditor

>> No.54107435

>>54107380
Most of the banks holdings are short term, less than 5 years, majority under two years. So they're not holding for years and years, as they come due they buy new ones at the higher rate. There are things called interest rate swaps, futures, forward and fixed income derivatives that banks use to offset interest rate risk. If SVB had used them they would still be here. They had 120bil in securities and 0 hedges. They were fucking morons and deserved to blow up. The big banks are all hedged.

And what do you mean eat losses? Not following,

>> No.54107464

>>54107349
bonds are dogshit though regardless lol

>> No.54107514

>>54107291
>Beck immediately asking for the sauce
kek, we know what will be on the menu for his next podcast.

>> No.54107520

>>54107349
thanks for education /biz/ anon

>> No.54107742

>>54107520
No problem. Take crap you see on Twitter with a pound of salt, not just a grain. Unless it's a real official or in the markets professional, nobody there has a clue what they're taking about, let alone a Redditor ass like Wall Street Silver or alcoholic has been like Glenn beck.

>> No.54107785
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54107785

>>54107349
>>54107742
You sound like someone that can help me understand the double sets of numbers on this table. I am trying to buy some bonds for a house fund in 1yr. I understand the premise of buying under par and that would up the yield. I do not understand why there are two numbers for each yield, two numbers for prices, etc.

>> No.54107805

>>54107349
Duuuh so I actually have your money but it will take 10 years to get it!
Gtfo

>> No.54107942

>>54107785
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldtoworst.asp

https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/the-difference-between-bid-and-ask-yields-on-bonds.aspx

You're looking at bids VS asking; as far as prices, think of it like any standard stock, where a seller can desire to sell (ask), and someone typically pays close to it, but under (bids on the stock). The same thing will apply to YTW. That Motley Fool link has a good description of it, "The difference between those two numbers is known as the bid-ask spread, and in general, the narrower that spread, the more liquid the market is." Like if you're doing puts/calls on stocks, the more unlikely scenarios are the cheaper options, and the more likely scenarios are more expensive options. Less differential in ask/bid is usually indicative of stability.

>> No.54107989

>>54107291
>just wait until you realize the guys who make money whenever they want to are currently losing money!!!
wow, the world is definitely about to end

>> No.54108062
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54108062

>>54107942
This makes sense thank you. So the yields are just reflective of the coupon and the price (given the ask, or the bid). As a buyer, why do I give a fuck about ask? This is my first time doing this, never had a brokerage account. I do not anticipate on offering any dollar amount. I thought it would tell me "here is the cost of your purchase, is what it is" and less of a "what do you want to offer".

Here is another I sourced from reddit... The C in the YTM I'm guessing has something to do with call, but not sure. Also, an 80 cent difference in the price makes the YTM go from 4.66% to a neg yield?

What risks are there with corporate bonds? When we talk risk are we talking default and flat out lose your money? Or is it risk of calling, which doesn't really seem like a risk to me. You get paid your interest at the rate disclosed just for a less amount of time - whatever, get another one and try again. I am only interested in holding until maturity.

These yields are end of term? So if its 2 year term and 6% coupon, that's 6% after 2 years, not APY? What about a 3mo?

My preferred situation would be to lock my money into something that is higher or close to equal what a mortgage would be. The original intention is to dump all my cash, equity from my current home, and my spouses extra cash onto another home and then pay it off ASAP. However, if I can get these bonds close to what the mortgage is then I would rather keep my $200k in cash working for me and drag the mortgage out, refi if things ever got better. Current home is at 2.5% and I don't give a fuck. I'm only good at saving. I am just now learning about investing extra cash beyond my retirement accounts. Wish I hadn't waited so long but here I am.

>> No.54108087
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54108087

>>54107291
oh no!
the people who create the money out of thin air are losing money!
what could they do?
im suuure thye wouldnt create more money! gasp!

>> No.54108109

>>54107291
They can literally create money from nothing
This post was obviously a joke making fun of the banking system or the Twitter poster was a retard

>> No.54108293

>>54108062
You will for all practical purposes never have to worry about asking, the brokerage firm should take care of that for you. It's more or less unimportant, and the price ask vs bid is usually negligible enough where either number can be used to calculate your moves, unless you're dealing in massive amounts of money.

The C is probably indicative of a reduction from the coupon payout. The call option will not be a negative yield, I'm guessing it's just YTW minus .087 of the coupon. I'd double check with your broker on that for specifics.

If you're planning on holding until maturity, you're relatively safe across the board. Using J&J as an example since you have it circled, it would take something absolutely catastrophic for you to take a loss. It can happen, but typically it's a bond because it's stable investing and not an internet brokerage casino. Less yield, less risk, but there is always some degree of risk.

Think of coupon as simply being a dividend. That will be your annual payout rate, then you will have your YTM upon maturity.

Your plan sounds relatively safe overall, the devil will be in the details of the mortgage more than the bonds more than likely. If your mortgage isn't volatile, there's no reason you can't maintain that equity.

>> No.54108345

>>54108293
>You will for all practical purposes never have to worry about asking

Excuse me, I was retarded, you shouldn't have to worry about bidding*

>> No.54108358

>>54107989
>>54108087
>>54108109
yes anons there are no consequences to not only infinitely printing money but gaining nothing in the process. please return to your goyslop and netflix, you've earned it with these gold star posts

>> No.54108541

>>54108358
and you go back to /pol/ happeningcel

>> No.54108564

>>54107291
>wallstreet silver
dropped

>> No.54108577

>>54107805
What the fuck you talking about? You don't seem to understand how finance works. No different than paying off a house or a car. Where did you get ten years from?

>> No.54108583
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54108583

>>54107291
> If you thought SVB was bad ... The Fed is sitting on unrealized losses of ~$1.2 trillion on their $8.3 trillion bond portfolio.
>the Fed, which creates money, is going to run out of money

>> No.54108698

So no one has any idea how modern banking system works

Are they literally just winging it?

>> No.54109624

>>54107291
Where's the fucking ledger, Ivan. Show it now.