/biz/ - Business & Finance

going up

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/regulators-urged-find-silicon-valley-bank-buyer-industry-frets-about-fallout-2023-03-12/
>As fears deepened of a broader fallout across the U.S. regional banking sector and beyond, Yellen said she was working to protect depositors but ruled out a bailout. "We want to make sure that the troubles that exist at one bank don't create contagion to others that are sound," Yellen told CBS' "Face the Nation" show. "During the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out ... and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again," Yellen added.
Also any of the anon's closing down their accounts tomorrow better be posting fat stacks.

Ironically if we get so bullish here buying the dip it's going to inverse and we are going to crash harder...

If that happens I need to stop sharing my plays because it's fucking up the rhythm of the market.

>>54066114
They'll go with unlimited FDIC deposits but zero out SIVB stock and clawback bonuses.

I'm not selling.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1eaJbrYkEVYJX?s=20

Twitter spaces going hard again today. this chat had Bill Ackman and Mark Cuban yesterday. 15k viewers so far. very informative.

To the anon who told me to go all in to SQQQ, thank you.

>>54066159
I'm always selling & always buying. For the right price of course.

>>54066168
rip

>>54066159
>implying you can
What do you think it means when a market goes "no bid"?

Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> Stick it in a different bank -> Bank fails -> FDIC pays out -> There are no banks left

Baking.

Air frying.

Baking.

Sautéing

>>54066083
MUMU WAS A YOUNG BULL
HE HAD A PORTFOLIO OF CALLS
LIVED 9-5 AND HE WORKED HIS PORTFOLIO TO NEW LOWS
CAME FROM THE EDGE OF /BIZ/
FOUGHT LIKE A WARREN BUFFET
SO NO CRASH CAN TAKE HIM DOWN

>>54064951
I have nothing against ESG investors, but I like that Vanguard and other companies provide index funds that aren't tied to ephemeral political controversies.

>>54066168
We are oversold. extremely... unless another bank fails we are going to get a bounce.

You hoping for another bank runs. And I cannot support that. Bank Run will ruin all of us. bears included.

ONE
LAST
BAIL OUT

Boiling. Mashing. Sticking in a stew.

Bitcoin seen as a better vehicle to park your money in than banks and equities. That's what I'm reading from this bitcoin pump.

>>54066243
Vanguard/Blackrock just process and sell you the meat, they don't care (and shouldn't) if it's prime ribeye or dog meat

BBW beating couldn't save us. It is all over. The masses will be in shambles. They still long. He still remains uncaught. THEY LONG WHILE HE ROAMS FREE!?!? There is no salvation.

>>54066262
funds are safu

>>54066214
Ze Great Reset is proceeding as planned.

EXIT LIQUIDITY PUMP WEEK WHO SAYS NO???

>>54066274
True. So why the fuck they dictating terms to the overal market about what is "good" & "bad" in terms of ESG bollox. They can't be both a neutral party & heavily activist.

Poaching

An old bank account I've stopped using just charged me a $10 inactivity fee. I was unaware this is a thing because I never read the terms of service fully. Am I entitled to a bailout?

>>54066263
BOIL barroning.

>>54066265
It's wild. BTC might drop 80% in a year, but a bankrun means your USD drop 100% overnight.

>>54066303
Vanguard doesn't do shit dude, blackrock is basically evil bankers and I don't even mean that joking

https://indiachan.io/dhan/index.html

I found an jeet 4chan. this is their /biz/ board and the smg thread there is dead :(

>>54066317
>implying anyone on /biz/ has more than $250,000

>>54066303
anyone who believes in ESG will like it
anyone who doesn't believe in ESG will ignore it
there's not much downside to offering ESG products, it's like having vegan options on a restaurant menu

Chopping. Chopping. Clicking. Clacking. Clickety. Clacketying.

>>54066348
>there's not much downside to offering ESG products

That's your opinion

>>54066241
why does this look like a transitioned scoopsies

>>54066308
Yes. I had an inactive US Bank account that had acrued over 100 dollars in fees because I never looked at it. I went to my local branch to complain and they gave me all the money back. Closed the account in the same trip.

Another relaxing day. When you've got a comfy life and a solid financial foundation for the long game everything that happens in the here and now is nothing. "ho hum" and that's about it really.

>>54066323
Interesting. Was that after hours? Cause it looks like the stock started pricing that in in a very troubling manner.

>>54066345
kek well, still, metaphorical "you".

>>54066341
>Jeets make a biz board
>It's all scams
>Everyone runs out of money because the pajeetscammers redeem all the rupees
>Many villege starve
The only way it could unfold.

>>54066323
>market cap of $573M
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/materialweakness.asp
"Material weaknesses" just means that one of the internal controls is fucked up and they are not sure if there's an errors in the statements those internal controls were supposed to monitor
nothingburger

>>54066412
but even then, rich people spread their money across multiple banks. You can literally use 100 banks if you want and get $25,000,000 coverage

>>54066323
https://investor.horizonbank.com/news-and-presentations/news/news-details/2023/Horizon-Bancorp-Inc.-Discloses-Receipt-of-NASDAQ-Notice/default.aspx Micro crap regional banks look to be the short this week

>No, the market can't react calm! My hecking bank runerinho!

>>54066382
Thanks. Maybe I'll call up and complain, but I'm not sure its worth the hassle for $10. I've already queued a transfer of the remaining funds. I'd only left it open for the month incase of failing to update some credit card payment or other bills.

>>54066443
The ultra rich? Yes. The guy juggling $1m for a couple body shops? The crypto-agnostic startup dork who got $5m from VCs he needs to keep his servers running? For those types, this is what you'd call a "formative experience".

Doesn't mean they'll switch overnight but it does mean a lot of people taking a lot of second looks. Especially if more financial chicanery happens over the next few years.

what are you going to do tomorrow

>>54066458
>th-t-the quants simply haven't priced the societal collapse!

>>54066384
I imagine the person posting this is some white guy sitting at an Applebee's bar wearing a mossy oak hat on his android phone.

>>54066365
you're retarded if you hold it against a company for providing what their investors want
>i want a women-led ETF
>OK, here you go, fees will be 1%
there's no motive other than money (like anyone in this thread). and what these ESG funds are really targeting are juicy leftist-managed pension funds, so i don't really care that they return dogshit

>>54066214
Chase can cover 66% of their deposits in a single day. If you think they will ever fail, you are ignorant

Al they've said is that they MIGHT do a backstop. Nothing has been officially set in stone. This feels like they're buying time. These folks are up to something.

>>54066507
Hope for a big bounce so I can get back in after taking profit Friday.

Do traders only focus on the profit of singular transactions and lose sight of the power of compounding? Constantly realizing profits and paying taxes must set you back a lot.

I thought the majority of gains comes from good businesses investing back into themselves over long periods of time. Is my assumption wrong?

>>54066507
Sell it all.
Today.

>>54066083
i just want to find the next x60000 from options like those sivb puts

>>54066540
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-discusses-fund-backstop-deposits-003036814.html
>The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve are weighing creating a fund that would allow regulators to backstop more deposits at banks that run into trouble following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

>>54066562

>>54066535
Help us understand what you posted.
What is "Losing" in your image?
What are they holding, specifically, that is "losing value?"

>>54066507
Sell.

>>54066575
They are weighing the option. Nothing has been agreed. This smells.

>>54066505
>The crypto-agnostic startup dork who got $5m from VCs he needs to keep his servers running? For those types, this is what you'd call a "formative experience".
exactly why they shouldn't fucking get a bailout

remember they could have kept their money at big banks that could have a shitload of rules and regulations so this DOESN'T happen but they wanted more money

>>54066348
>anyone who doesn't believe in ESG will ignore it
Except the people who don't want to be handicapped by a false, subversive political ideology instead of making profits.

>>54066507
Buy.
SOXS

>>54066581
Bonds. It’s why every bank on the list is red. As yields go up, the market value of bonds go down

>>54066617
What is a Bond?
What is the Life Cycle of a Bond?

>>54066551
>he didn't mega backdoor roth to create a tax-free playground

>>54066551
not all traders are the same

>>54066551
>good businesses
>investing back into themselves
>long periods of time
AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It used to be that way, but when you can sell bonds and buyback stock to make your profits you don't need to even have a product! This has been the investment meta of the last decade and it is all going away now.

>>54066414
>Dream big anons, Never give up.
printar over here is up $279. I wonder how many people here can say the same

>>54066617
>It’s why every bank on the list is red.
anon most banks go for short term shit like a few months, they just need to hold a small bit and they'll be fine

the SVB diversity shit bought ten year bonds like dumb cunts, that was the problem

>>54066647
So they are holding notes from Corporations, that are designed to repay them what they put in, plus interest?
And the "loss" is the supposed inability to sell as desired?

>>54066591
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-says-government-trying-help-140658806.html
>According to the NVCA, Silicon Valley Bank has over 37,000 small businesses with more than $250,000 in deposits," wrote Y Combinator in an open petition signed by over 3,500 chief executives. The Silicon Valley Bank crisis also has implications for firms over 8,000 miles away. Over 60 YC-backed Indian startups have more than $250,000 stuck in accounts with Silicon Valley Bank and nearly two dozen have more than $1 million tied with the lender,

>>54066594
Correction: they wanted to be cool. "Cool" meant banking at SVB and clowning on crypto baggies.

As for main street, now many of them have an answer to "why magic internet money?" in the form of "remember when your account got wiped out/frozen/business destroyed/haircut because you dared to recklessly gamble by keeping all your payroll running through a single bank account"?

>>54066575
I'm curious where the money would come from.

>>54066596
you don't have to buy ESG ETFs?????

>>54066695

>>54066672
tbills, not cbonds.
The loss was unrealized but then their clients started fucking up so they needed to sell bonds and thus realize the loss in order to cover the difference in the interest of loans (5%) they were using to cover their yield (1.66% lmao)

>>54066674
>Over 60 YC-backed Indian startups have more than $250,000 stuck in accounts with Silicon Valley Bank and nearly two dozen have more than $1 million tied with the lender,

Did any of you see the short interest on UVXY?

Lol… lmao…

https://fintel.io/ss/us/uvxy

>>54066701
If your company doesn't have at least a nig and a waman on the board of director, your company may not be listed on NASDAQ since march 2022.

>>54066695
https://www.thestreet.com/banking/janet-yellen-says-government-wont-bail-out-silicon-valley-bank?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
>The message is clear: the government is not going to bail out Silicon Valley Bank, despite several calls from influential voices in the financial and business communities.

>>54066647
Most banks buy a mix of short and medium term bonds. They are down because many bought 2 year bonds after a few of the 75 bps rate hikes. The ones that are down less hedged some, but clearly not enough. The ones down big probably didn’t hedge at all

>>54066757
>I work with only white people
>company is also run really well
Im sure its a coincidence

>>54066750
Bearish for Alphabet.

>>54066446
made a watch list of a bunch of medium cap & semi large banks with insane growth in their balance sheet during last 5 years, usually 3-4 times, one had 7x in 4-5 years which is crazy
lets see how this unfolds

>>54066507
Continue to hold sqqq and hope. It should be red. It ought be red. My stupid chart bullshit says it should trend red.

>>54066773
Cool it with the antisemitism.

>>54066529
They only cater to one political ideology and you know it. ESG is one of the most insincere political forays into finance in history. It's packaging different political ideas into one label in order to coerce as many companies as possible to use it. If you want Woke Street instead of Wall Street and help China's rise in the process, then it's definitely a good idea.

>>54066750
SER Y CAN I NOT REDEM SER! THE VILLEG NEAR STARVE SER! I MUST REDEM BLOODY BASTARD BHENCHOD SER

>>54066801
>They're gonna get paid out in giftcards

>>54066551
>hurrr if you pay taxes you can't compound
how can anyone be so retarded. Let's put it like this, a trade that lasts two weeks might net you 10%, a trade that lasts a year might net you also 10%. Bagholding for years isn't very efficient, it's just """safer""" although not as much as baggies think.

>>54066752
i noticed it before market close on Friday. lots of short pressure on the options chain

>>54066757
and what does that have to do with Blackrock/Vanguard?

>>54066829
I wanna know why he's lumping blackrock with vanguard. the latter is boomer as fuck and as innocent as you can get in the field

>>54066811
I laughed and my neighbors think I'm drinking already.

>>54066765
Help me out, Scandibro. What's happening in that painting?

Crisis averted guys the government is paying all the deposits, few that was a close one nearly got us

How probable is it that we're somehow green tomorrow

>>54066757
>because we are trying to run a successful business here

>>54066890
What's this ai image supposed to be?

>>54066890
at this point, everyone's so numb to coinslot that it just fades into the blue background of sfw boards

>>54066341
Lurked for 20 mins and feel like a filthy pajeet now.

>>54066900
70%

>VNQ at record lows
>10% low this month
>I hate to wait until Monday to buy
OPEN THE FUCKING MARKET
I WANT THAT NAV
GIMME

>>54066900
really thinking about buying 0dte straddle
depends how premarket looks
shits gonna be volatile

>>54066904
https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/rulebook/nasdaq/rules/nasdaq-5600-series
>It's fucking real
Send it all to 0 right now

>>54066900
weekend futures are green

>>54066900
Absolutely 0%

>>54066931
The faggot mods and jannies that literally live in these threads will see it so much that they will have flashbacks of it on their deathbed

>>54066953
Anon, who do you think *owns* all that real estate? Hello.

>>54066953
you can always buy in premarket if you really care

>>54066893
I could be wrong, but I think it's portraying a rebellion in Sweden 1525. Some rowdy peasants marched on the capital and then got executed.

>>54066893
I'm not a Scandi, I just saved the painting because I think it's really good. I think those dudes are some bad guys getting shamed for something. Hopefully a Swede can actually answer.

>>54066986
Bitcoin is green

markets will be green tomorrow

please understand, 50 bepis is officially off the table.

>>54066829
They sponsored nasdaq pulling this, in addition they put their money into companies primarily on the basis of the ESG score and not their actual merits.

>>54066083
Ok who took out the calendar links? I depend on those links to know what I am doing. How will I know when the market opens now!?!

>>54066893
me on the left

>>54067056
>Bitcoin is green
That's bearish. Bitcoin is digital gold, remember?

>>54067087
They wish. These days BTC is nothing but high beta S&P.

>>54066647
banks are legally REQUIRED to hold a certain amount of LONG DATED treasuries
and regardless, all treasuries bought before about the middle of last month have been heemed as fuck
You're delusional if you think they have always just sat on 100% 6month treasuries. When the yield curve isn't raped, longer term treasuries have much higher yields.

>>54067056
>50 bepis is officially off the table.
They're coping, it's going to be 50. The futures fags assume the fed will give a shit about some west coast tech bank failing when this is exactly the goal of interest rate hikes. Inflation is still hot and jobs continue to exceed projections. Even the slight blip upwards in unemployment is due to workforce participation rates going up, as previously unemployed people are being tapped by the families to try to meet ends meet.

>>54067056
That's because people are moving their money out of the stock market and into crypto. That's about as bearish as it gets.

alright who's open? ASX in a couple of hours

How do I invest in my professional network

>>54067117
>the fed will give a shit about some west coast tech bank failing
the fed cares because they don't want a nationwide bankrun. their goal is to prop up confidence somehow

>>54067136
>people are moving their money out of the stock market and into crypto
anon crypto isn't even 3% of the size of the stock market

>>54067136
There isn't a single market right now. This movement is due to the USDC depegging

hello /smg/

I'm not a super savvy investor but have made some money over the years. I timed DIS and DAL stock at close to the bottom during COVID, and also benefited nicely from the GME squeeze in June of 2021. I then blindly followed a friend's advice and got lucky with TSLA.

I am aware that now is a tumultuous time for the market. I want to invest in US Treasury securities since short-term gains are way up and it's essentially risk-free. I have anywhere from $15k-100k to invest depending on how confident I feel in the investment.

My understanding is short-term bonds (<1y) are currently available at rates above 5%. When I go in Fidelity, I see stuff like pic related for very near-term maturities. However, I think I'd need to buy a larger quantity than I am comfortable with to make money off these offerings.

Can someone guide me on the best way to invest a decent chunk in perhaps a 6-week TBill? I want to put in around $20k and see how it plays out.

Thank you in advance for any help.

>>54067117
>They're coping, it's going to be 50
Zero chance, in my opinion. SVD was a deflationary primer that JPow sorely needed and the balance of power in the job market should be normalized with SV startups going under. There's a real chance that a .25 cut is on the cards. I'd say that the highest probability is a pause, followed by a low chance of .25.

>>54067099
Well, that's what the poompers think it is anyway.

>>54067163
The interest rate has fuck all to do with a bank run, at least in the short term. If anything the fed should be up front that they're not going to change their policy due to overleveraged, no risk protection retards getting themselves blown up, and that will force institutions to wind down their positions in a slightly more orderly manner rather than being forced to sell during margin calls.

>>54067065
Vanguard/Blackrock are investment management companies, they don't put their money into these companies, they put their customer's money into them (AUM are 80x bigger than directly owned assets at both those companies). State Street (part of the big 3 of Vanguard/Blackrock/State Street) said specifically when brought in on Nasdaq's proposed rule change: "[a]s investors, we believe improving the availability of useful information and data is a critical element in advancing board diversity, and, as a result, will help improve corporate governance and long-term risk management and financial performance". That's a pretty empty sentence if you look at it closely.

all these girl bosses are going to have to become realtors

Look at how quickly they're working to get billionaires their money back. The residents of Palestine, Ohio must be seething watching this lmao

A few ideas about how this might proceed:
>Fed pivots looking weak and reactionary
Extremely bearish
>Fed buys bad securities at face value to solve liquidity crisis; exacerbating inflation
Extremely bearish
>Fed/US Gov do nothing; other banks probably also hold awful debt and have no liquidity
Extremely bearish

The only "bull" scenario is the Fed pivots into hyperinflation.

someone please correct my line of thinking:
i want to go michael burry on banks this month. seems too obvious of a play. thoughts??

>>54067216
There are people who are unironically this retarded, on my /smg/? Sad!

>>54067204
>interest rate has fuck all to do with a bank run
don't talk to me unitl you learn about SVB's HTM bonds and how the interest rate affected that

>>54067189
>SVD was a deflationary primer
Their total book was 200B, being held by value trap venture funded tech shit. Why would this have any effect on inflation?
>the balance of power in the job market should be normalized with SV startups going under.
They don't employ even a significant fraction of the US tech market, much less the total labor market. Not that there aren't some decently large companies involved with SVB at all, but no major companies that will fail if not made whole. It's only some no name retards with 10 employees who had everything in that bank.
>There's a real chance that a .25 cut is on the cards.
Utter delusion.

>>54067104
Nobody forced them to put 50% of their assets in 10y bonds.

>HTM
>had to sell them before maturity
kind of a misnomer eh

>>54067246
Obviously interest rates going up caused housing prices to fall which caused MBS valuations to fall. But you were suggesting that the fed increasing rates in the future or even indicating that they would in the future, would result in a bank run, when that is absolutely not the case. SVB was the canary in the coal mine and the rest of the banks are getting the fuck out of the cave.

>>54066507
sell the open
buy the close

>>54067189
>There's a real chance that a .25 cut is on the cards.
topkek

>>54067262
what "safe" asset should they have bought instead? all debt was repriced last year.

>>54067216
Why you shilling so hard for blackrock. You know full well that compnay leverage its huge position to pressure boards & votes in companies all along the line of pushing ESG type changes, all for political purposes. That being poltical changes Larry Fink wants to see. So in summary, one man, who runs a group of "passive fund" with other peoples money is getting to leverage all those peoples money to get the things he wants personally. Very liberal & very woke of him spreading this freedom everywhere.

>>54067186
just buy a short-dated treasury bill ETF (like BIL) if you want something easy to understand and manage
a better option is depositing the money in a money market fund if your broker offers them. For example, Schwab's retail government money fund (SNVXX) offers 4.21% yield (as of right now, this rate varies)

>>54067291
it wasn't MBSes it was treasury bonds

>>54067189
>There's a real chance that a .25 cut is on the cards. I'd say that the highest probability is a pause

>>54067186
Look at https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ and determine if you're willing to hold out for longer. The (min) determines the smallest lot size so you don't have to go balls deep to get in on these. You can also do a ladder (combo of different dated bonds) and roll once maturity is reached.

>>54066904
>self-identify
they're presenting a loophole on a platter

>>54067262
I'm not saying that every bank is inevitably going to go under, but almost every single "low risk" financial instrument that banks hold or are required to hold have been heemed as fuck by this hike cycle. Every single bank is going to have unrealized losses and the potential for a catastrophe grows the longer and higher rates stay.

I mean for fucks sake we haven't even had a housing crash yet and lots of banks hold MBS which would get omegaheemed by a combination of rape hikes and housing crash.

How do you feel about your tax money going to bail out risky tech start ups that went sour?

>>54067336
Unrealized is not the problem. The problem is that they were forced to realize the loss.

>>54067344
Higher unemployment you say?

>>54066779
Post them here fren

>>54067322
>>54067333
Thank you, gents. Will look into this and make some decisions.
It unironically can't go tits up as long as the United States is the big boss, right?

>>54067362
No, lower unemployment. More job creation at mcdonald's. Just, you know, lower job market participation, that's all. Another record-breaking job market performance quarter for joe biden!

>>54067189
>latest Mumu "thesis" just dropped
and as always it's hilarious

>>54067360
Lots of banks will be forced to realize some level of loss if higher for longer keeps going.

Banks are holding 0-rate assets and being forced to give out 4%+ to depositors to keep business. They're taking a haircut everywhere, only the banks with shitloads of cash sitting in RRP right now are safe.

>>54067344
>100,000 jobs lost
guess they thought they werent the ones powell was talking about when he said he wanted high unemployment to combat inflation.

>>54066083
I haven't been on here since Friday night
What have I missed, any news?

>>54067218
Worst case scenario they just marry some autistic engineer or whatever and lay around the mcmansion deciding which Tyrone is going to fuck them when he goes to work

I hate women so much it's unreal

>>54067389
>Lots of banks will be forced to realize some level of loss if higher for longer keeps going.
Yes, also the knock-on effect of SVB's demise, plus any potential bankrun, can force this to happen sooner rather than later.

>>54067362
Kek this is playing out exactly the way the fed wants it. I swear they're playing 4d chess sometimes.

>>54067376
nah I wouldnt post that or which ones I think might actually have a terrible balalnce sheet in case something actually goes tits up on
dont want to be on the hook for this shit

>>54067314
Larry Fink is just a heeb trying to greenwash his other funds:

https://expertinvestoreurope.com/exclusive-blackrock-esg-funds-worst-for-deforestation-risk/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/12/top-three-asset-managers-fossil-fuel-investments
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/01/18/blackrock-larry-fink-letter-climate/
https://newrepublic.com/article/163147/asset-management-infrastructure-climate-spending

You're assuming these people's ulterior motive is some progressive bullshit and not money. Their leftist grandstanding is just so that people ignore everything else they're doing.

>>54066900

Pretty good, even if we are red, we will be green soon.

>>54067071
Baker sold them to meet liquidity requirements.

>>54066341
they have a /g/ board too.
where they literally just talk about entrance exams and shit, not technology KEK

but I love seeing durka durka speak with a random ass “jealous faggot” in english thrown in

>>54067399
It's also a dramatic overstatement. The companies that had money in SVB may employ that many people, but that's sure as shit not the number of people employed by companies that will fail if SVB clients aren't made whole. The biggest clients only had 5-20% of their cash there.

>>54067403
Nah hasn't been any news for a while, which is why it's annoying that the market would dump on literally zero news.

How are we gonna save this $599 a month to-do-list company? SAVE ME FED!

>>54066159
I just transferred the funds and emptied my bank accounts. Should be a pleasant dump.

>>54067428
Subverting the white race is just a happy side effect.

why dont they just sell their bonds then and get cash for the people who want to withdraw

>tfw I went long on VIX thursday evening

>>54067377
it's also incredibly boring and will probably only make you about $50-60 a month on that $20,000; if you're a bit more risk-tolerant, you can go for 6 month treasuries, which currently have the highest yield

>>54067474
when they sell their bonds they realize double digit percent losses

>>54067261
>Their total book was 200B, being held by value trap venture funded tech shit. Why would this have any effect on inflation?
95% of all capital was uninsured. That's hot money meant for private consumption gone. A sizeable chunk of liquidity.
>They don't employ even a significant fraction of the US tech market, much less the total labor market. Not that there aren't some decently large companies involved with SVB at all, but no major companies that will fail if not made whole. It's only some no name retards with 10 employees who had everything in that bank.
SVB alone has almost 10000 employees. Nevermind all of the soon to be dead startups and their employees.
By all metrics, we are in a slightly deflationary regime, which which poses way larger threat to the overall system than an inflationary one. I'm not disregarding the potential bullwhip effect, but for the time being it would be extremely irresponsible to not at least pause, and assess the lagging effects of the rate hikes - given this weeks events.

>>54067476
rip

>>54067448
>husband works in Manufacturing
Probably 6 figure white collar fag
>Honda oddessey
60,000-70,000 peak "soccer mom" shit

I hate women so much it's unreal. Bitch is probably sitting in a 2 million dollar house right now trying to get pity reacts on fucking twitter

>>54067494
we have over a week until fomc, unless other banks start having issues I guarantee you that the entire SVB thing will turn out to have a minimal rather than catastrophic effect on unemployment

we are sure as shit not going to suddenly start deflating just because a couple hundred billion was wiped out, especially when that money is still circulating (all of that money is in the hands of the bank's creditors that they bought their assets from)

>>54067291
>But you were suggesting that the fed increasing rates in the future or even indicating that they would in the future, would result in a bank run, when that is absolutely not the case.
1. People pull shit from 0% accounts to get 5% in accounts at other banks or MMFs.
2a. 0% banks hike, start paying 5%, and stem the bleeding
2b. 0% banks eat the (increasingly rapid) drop in deposits
3. 0% banks are now run on.

>>54067476
risky but based

>>54067463
Who else would be smart enough to catch on?

>>54067508
Dig deeper on her. Husband and her made 500k a year between the two of them, her company is complete fluff, he has an exec job at a steel place. Full on LARP as blue collar people, disgusting.

I would support backstopping depositors if I knew they were all legitimate companies (TSLA, LinkedIn, NVIDIA) that banked there. These bullshit startups don't deserve a goddamn thing...

>pic related. Owen Shroyer is a goddamn toolbox but he's right on the nose here

>>54067440
my sides. looking forward to going on jeetchan again when I find it in my bookmarks a year from now after I forget

>>54067448
Just the whole way she words it makes me fucking seethe

>ugh my husband is such a loser manufacturing worker LMAO
>I am a CEO and girl boss that keeps the world spinning by using loans to pay 15x scoops tier degenerates or pajeets to code some dumbass subscription app

>>54067508
Oh she's most definitely living in a mcmansion but I also guarantee you she's up to her tits in debt.

>>54067050
A priest (or something like that) rebelled against Gustav Vasa, he was promised to come back in peace (after hiding Norway) but was arrested and executed. Before that there's convoluted royal politics of support and betrayals leading up to that.

>>54067584
>TSLA isn't the ultimate scam grift and is legitimate
lol
lmao
kek
rofl

>>54067186
https://treasurydirect.gov/

>>54067547
the problem is low rates killed the CD market, and now that rates are high, people aren't buying CDs (which are insulated from bank runs)

>>54067494
>That's hot money meant for private consumption gone.
It was 200B that would have been distributed over the course of years. It's not nothing, but it's very fucking close to that on a national scale.
>which which poses way larger threat to the overall system
No, it poses a risk to full retard speculators who want to ball an exponentially increasing money supply into a fucking black hole and try to live off of the hawking radiation. Not that we're even close to deflationary at this point, just slightly less inflationary.
>it would be extremely irresponsible to not at least pause
Pausing would be the worst possible thing. It would convince all the retards like you that everything is fine and it's perfectly okay to go back to jamming quadrillions of non-existent dollars into advertising and vanity projects and 12th order derivatives. The infinite debt cycle should and must be killed.

The Fed should
>announce they are pausing rate hikes for 6 months
>this will give all banks and financial institutions enough time to get their shit together
>begin rising rates after that at .50 basis points until inflation is defeated

Even if they don't do this, the biggest issue with the Fed is their lack of communication. This whole "reactive" instead of "proactive" approach is retarded.
Obviously they won't do this. Instead we'll get mixed signals from every Fed member and then the Fed will say "we are monitoring the situation and will react accordingly" and then the bond market will have to predict their next move.
I hate Jerome so much. Dude has the public speaking and communication skills of a fetus.

Reminder that most of the bullish posters are literal government shills trying to calm the markets.

So do the money printers come back on this week?

>>54066904
Based NASDAQ owning the Chuds.

>>54066083
Based SNSD sone OP

>>54067610
They all are and they never have to pay the bill. Work harder wagie you need to clean up my mess

>>54067627
I don't ride Musk's dick like a lot of people, but he at least has factories and products that are being delivered (maybe not the Cybertruck). We can argue about the quality of those products, but at least there is a tangible good that is being produced and sold to consumers.

These Silicon Valley startups are fucking garbage. Guarantee they never turn a profit, simply survive on VC money to pay staff.

>>54067664
no

lol
lmao

>>54067239
Michael Burry did what he did because he autistically trawled through obfuscated legalese and financial bullshit for thousands of hours. You skimmed 100 words worth of headlines on /pol/. Thoughts?

>>54067532
>we are sure as shit not going to suddenly start deflating just because a couple hundred billion was wiped out
I never said that we are in a deflationary regime ONLY because of SVD, it's been trending in that direction for months now. Overall liquidity flows shifted back in september 22, and they've been able to hold us in a bit of a goldilocks zone for the first two months of this year, and now we're slowly headed for flash crash/credit event territory.
It's funny, I find myself in a familiar position as back in early 2022. I was arguing that shit was going to down and that the recent liquidity jolt would put and end to the rally leading to an almost year long shitstorm and /smg/ fucking hated me for it.

To anyone who's short term bullish, what's the thesis? Is it still the fundamentals don't matter and fed does QE?

>>54067694
bank runs this week
priced in and bullish, amirite?

>>54067627
TSLA is overvalued by 10 times but at least it does indeed create products and sell them for more than they cost to make. It is a real company.

>>54067694
>there are people who unironically believe this
lol

>>54067703
They're paid shills. There is no thesis.

Should I Buy VIXXX Calls on market open?

>>54067619
Oh are we talking about old world royalty now? What are /smg/'s thoughts on Augustus III of Poland?

>>54067239
it's too late, if you had michael burry-ed this, you would have already taken a handsome profit this week before volatility spiked.

Why can the feds let system crash? i mean it will take EU and China with it while the rest of the World will get raped, buy maybe they will make a better system that's not such a tumor for the average Joe

Still a lot more tech companies that haven't disclosed how much exposure they had to SVB. It's coming.

>>54067722
UVXY or bust.

>>54066900
Even if there is no bailout after they liquidate SVB the uninsured depositors will get back ~95% of their deposits. In a few weeks we might look back on this as a nothingburger.

>>54067703
The bull thesis is that the markets are retarded and will assumed the fed must pause or at least decrease rate hikes over a shit bank turning over. The fact that this obviously isn't going to happen does not mean we can't get a neon green candle before then, because the markets will be irrational specifically to rape you for daring to defy them.

>>54067722
YES

>>54067726
For me, it's pic related. The best king the new world has ever had.

>>54067753
kek
(for those following at home: svb's net assets at the time of takeover were negative 5 billion).

>>54067726
Poland is only known for getting consistently rekt by its neighbours and having a fucked governing structure under the Sejm, nobody's familiar with their royalty.

>>54067619
Thanks, anon.

brehs...

>>54067722
are you retarded? They are easing bank access to the FEDs discount window, VIX will gap down.

>>54067687
Strictly as a car, Tesla's are actually pretty impressive. They have impressive acceleration for an electric video. They are also built sloppily though, not to mention the entire undercarriage of your car is nothing but massive batteries so if you get in and accidentally than I guess (???) We'll find out as we go along. They also have the benefit that only they can work on their own vehicles. They don't release repair guides to their vehicles like all other car manufacturers which is bullish as they sell more vehicles.

>>54067710
Exhibit A in why dumb retail money signals the end of any move.

>>54067713
Feel free to swap in any of the other handful of people that went through the hassle of realizing the need for and buying a handful of CDSes at the time. This may blow your mind, but plenty of investors have to do more work than tap a few buttons on Robinhood.

>>54067703
I can see a green day next week somewhere but we'll ultimately be <3500 by next Friday. Be careful with options anons...

Stocks will be green Monday because people expect the Fed to chill the fuck out and stay at .25 rate hikes or below now.
That's what the bond market is pricing in.

I predict that First Republic Bank will also fall, but beyond that maybe things can chill out.

>>54067742
It doesn’t matter because the feds have said they are ‘considering’ back stopping all accounts

>>54067652
>No, it poses a risk to full retard speculators who want to ball an exponentially increasing money supply into a fucking black hole and try to live off of the hawking radiation. Not that we're even close to deflationary at this point, just slightly less inflationary.
Dropped.
You have no idea what you're talking about, unfortunately. A good tell is usually the disregard for gigantuous the dangers of deflation, and how it can utterly destroy everything in a matter of weeks. Luckily, the people at the rudder aren't you, and they know damn well to avoid it all costs.

>>54067818
Clinically retarded posts, on my /smg/? It's more likely than you think

>>54067805
THATS FUCKEN IT
I'm learning astrology.

>>54067710
bullish amirite?

>>54067265
>maturity
THE BOND WASN'T EVEN 18 YOU SICK FUCK

JPmorgan bros, I thought we were the fortress...XI ikneel...

>>54067851
>for gigantuous the dangers of deflation
Fuck you, kike. The only "danger" is that the scams stop working.

>>54067818
priced in and bullish, amirite?

i have more than 100k cash in a td ameritrade account. if schwab is screwed, am i also fucked? should i just put it all into t-bills on monday morning to be safe?

>>54067697
I'm bearish as fuck but I find it hard to believe that we're going to suddenly tumble into deflation without a financial crisis (which may very well happen, but it seems unlikely)

Just look at RRP, trillions of dollars of straight up cash just chilling in big bank hands. No way they have a fatal liquidity crunch.

>>54067858
I love this week because I'm making a lot of money. But I hate it because of schizo /pol/ tourists. Good with the bad, I suppose.

>>54067833
Yes. Green until 11:30 when the fed meeting happens. Then freefall. 3 breakers. Then 3 tomorrow. And another 3. Forever!

>>54067805
>>54067805

Don't say I didn't predict it happening, But I predicted it happening.

As always I was right again..

>>54067872
Jew bros...

here's my schizo take
>JPOW wants jobbies to go down
>not saving SVB causes jobbies to go down
>which will allow them to do rate cuts (because jobbies are down)
>now the market is ultra bullish in an era of failing banks and now the dems get to claim victory over inflation because x amount of people lost their jobs
>no banks will be bailed out

>>54067883
Tell you what, champ, go short da banks. Really stick it to the Goldmans and JPMs by buying puts on their asses. They're bound to get taken down by a bankrun, probably in only 2 weeks!

>>54067896
>>>/pol/
Never come back.

>>54067886
From what I just read TDA uses a different underlying bank than SCHW. I think as long as you have your TDA account you would be insulated from a SCHW fiasco.

>>54067805
im a hardcore pisces and i still pray for hitler

>>54067735
>Pic
Delet this.

>>54067754
Rate cuts are going to send the markets down because that means something broke and the fed is forced to do so. Even in past few times they cut markers didn't bottom till after they cut

>>54067896
I'm not taking stock advice from anyone that isn't schizo. Are you crazy or something?

>>54067911
Just this week the dem senators tried to get him to be dovish and he turned even more hawkish in response. It's clear he's tired of faggot politicians trying to tell him to sell the future to pretend the present is fine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses N-N-N-NEW RECORD

>>54067911
he literally just testified that rates will increase quicker

>>54067346
It actually wasn't the risky tech startups doing shit, but it *was* a diversity hire Pajeeta at the bank who failed to do her job hedging interest rate risk.

>>54067910
He literally came up in the club and smacked our dollars on the ass. Its over ...

>>54067947
>>54067735
Please stop posting antisemetic images.

>>54067815
>They have impressive acceleration for an electric
You say that like it's shocking. Electric motors get instantaneous torque, of course they will accelerate faster than you may be used to with an ICE.

>>54067911
I think Powell pivots this year despite saying otherwise if this shit really does get worse. Not yet though.

>>54067584
You're not rich until your wife's hobby is a bullshit startup.

>>54067947
Everything is true except I was raised by a single mother so I was at Blockbuster looking at horror movies.

>>54067965
yeah, after bitching for 10 fucking months in a row that companies are doing too much FACKIN hiring/ Again, this was the devils advocate BOOOLISH take

>>54067872
Well don't you worry, once the US flips the 50 trillion dollar chinese housing market will be cut by two thirds, and these banks will be obliterated

>>54067805
I wouldn't worry about it, Saturn just give structure to us otherwise day dreaming lazy hippies. Expect more "rebellion" and creative burst to arts and entertainment (movies, music, fashion etc).

>>54067805
What book do I need to read to learn this stuff, unironically

>>54067930
i hope so, the way schwab dropped last week was really odd. looks like some finance gurus anticipate something bad.

>>54067726
Too much hedonism, too little leadership.
Pic related was a proper emperor.

>>54067891
Yeah, I'd be really worried without the existence of the RRP. But you can't hold the tide with a broom in perpetuity. My guess is that recent events will have the depositors heading for MMF's further increasing the velocity of lockups.

>>54066630
How do I into backdoor roth

>>54067584
That list sounds worse then OTC pink sheets

>>54067961
Jerome... The bonds.

>>54067703
>"SVBprime is contained."

>>54068022
Please change your name you're making us SKYT holders look bad. I swear you're giving me CLF tranny vibes.

>>54067926
Even legitimate banks not currently at risk but could based on contagion saw a 10% equity cut

>>54068008
weird, i just started painting my warhammer figurines today after not painting in months

>>54067584
Ok but the thing is
All those companies paid their loans. That's not why the bank went down.

Which website do i use to invest? I'm not american/euro

>>54067982
BAD GOY, BAD GOY,
WHATCHA GONNA DO,
WHATCHA GONNA DO WHEN THEY COME FOR YOOOOOOU!

>JEWS is filmed on location with the men and women of goy enforcement

I will be baking the next thread, nobody else bake

>>54066195
Blessed image

>>54067753
Latest estimates I'd heard are either baghold until QE/bonds roll off, or 60-70 cents on the dollar. Obviously that's for if you're an extravagant richie rich fatcat who cares about money beyond the first $250k. That'll be there first thing Monday.

Baking.

>>54068021
The liquidity crisis happens when depositors pull money and bank has to tap something to provide immediate cash.

>>54067584
>$27 they send you $20 in quarters

someone, at some level, had to be overleveraging themselves throwing money at do nothing projects and you know what? all those loans are just dust in the wind now. who's going to come after these companies? they're going to close shop and never have to pay a single red cent back because the company that's "left" is basically a shell now. who gets paid back from those loans?

>>54068088
Checked... and yes, I understand. It was the bank's poor management on investments and they got caught with their pants down on a fed hike.

Not 'fair' for those companies, but their deposits were only insured for 250k and they knew that. Why is 'not fair' applicable to them, and not to employees who get laid off at companies every day? Factories closing and being outsourced?

It's like the bell curve meme, on each end is "they knew the risk", and in the middle is "they did nothing wrong". It's a raw deal, but join the club.

>>54068156


>>54068156


>>54068156

>>54068142
Those companies never intended to pay the money back. Thanks for playing, better luck next time.

>>54067872
>Agricultural Bank of China is larger than the Bank of China
What did they mean by this?

>>54067947
I want to go back bros. I'm so tired...

>>54068162
you didn't even mitigate with a courtesy 'migrate when ready' you early baking faggot

>>54068162

>>54067891
The RRP is not big bank money, it is big money market fund money. The largest banks are well insulated from liquidity crunches, however. That's why they're still mogging everyone with 0.01% rates on savings accounts.

>>54067951
You gotta temper them with autism. Staying pure schizo means for every well timed NSC short, you baghold 10 Bayhorse Silvers.

>>54067448
Huh? What's that? Liquidate her, not my problem

>>54067911
You right, buncun, you right.

>>54067961
Fuck. Get my man Bill back in the game. He deserves another shot!

>>54068154
The problem is the more unaccounted-for "not in my lane" risk you tack on to people, the closer to 3rd world shitholedom you get. Imagine you had to boil all your water because your local utility doesn't technically guarantee it's clean. Or your gas station starts selling 60 octane leaded at $3/half gallon because they slapped new stickers on top of the old inspection ones. At a certain point you strangle your economy with distrust.

>>54067872
>even Banker Jobs are being outsourced to China
... Jews not like this...

>>54067961
Now I empathize with them. We're the same.

>>54067927
Fuck off I'm making money shorting anti White companies. Also pol and biz are one know as the economy has been blacked for over a decade

What happens tomorrow?

>>54068440
institutions are going to get fucked like never before.

Tomorrow is supposed to be the doomsday but for some reason I can't shake this feeling of being incredibly bullish.

>>54067947
Yeah. The one thing I don't miss about this is all copies of the movie you wanted to see have been rented out already. Blockbuster had a pleasant smell. It was caramel popcorn and something else. Very distinctive to that specific chain. I wonder if they were piping it in through the hvac on purpose.

>>54068091
Start by doing a search on (your country) investing/brokers.

>>54068496

>>54068440
Everyone holds their breath we see what happens. If a bank goes down shit heats up more. If all the banks hold then people breathe a sigh and we start trying to figure out what the effects of SVB's fall will be.

>>54067735
>but maybe they will make a better system that's not such a tumor for the average Joe

How do you think these people get ridiculously wealthy anon?
You assume that everyone plays by the same rules you do, but they don't

>>54068058
Don't be a nigger and teach me the backdoor roth

>>54068440
My onahole arrives tomorrow :D