/biz/ - Business & Finance

First for Systemic Fraud!

just bought myself some shoes with my LUKOIL gains, how's my drip?

>BBBY is less than a dollar away from bankruptcy
COME ON YOU FAGGOT HIT $1.25

>We're crabbing around 4000 again

is SKF worth gambling on?

>>53969126
I've been waiting 6 months for the next breakdown to 3600
Please just sell everything. Let this crab end. Please. Please.

>>53969079
Links?

SKYT will between 10x and 100x from here.

It is a $50 billion company with a $500 million market cap.

Missing SKYT is going to be the biggest miss of the 2020s.

>>53969126
Crab will end soon

KYS OP

Even this crash is boring and gay. Let's see some circuit breakers!

can someone explain to me like i am a 5 year old retarded child why we are not fkin GIGAdumping off jpows remarks on how they gonna go even higher for even longer? Are bulls actually this delusional?

hello anon allow me to show you our recent arrivals.

>>53969163
what crash. just hedgies initiating an algo dump to cover shorts

I ate 2 baguettes and now I feel so full I can't move anywhere. It might be my end bros, I hope you enjoy this bullrun without me

>hedgies initiating an algo dump to cover shorts

>>53969165
Do you offer financing?

>>53969178
>A Contrarian Indicator
>Contrarian investors use the put-call ratio to help them determine when market participants are getting overly bullish or too bearish.
>An extremely low ratio means the market is extremely bullish. A contrarian might conclude that the market is too bullish and is due for a pullback.

>>53969191
Just say you're carboloading. That makes it healthy.

>>53969200
>hedgies

>>53969212
what are 0dte, greentext retard

why is DOLE headquartered in Ireland?
are bananas just yellow potatoes?

Citadel is short-ladder attacking SPY

>>53969228
taxes

>>53969221
it doesn't matter.. excessive bullishness is excessive bullishness
it's the whole point of looking at CPC, to see extremes
>what happens next after everyone is loaded up on calls?
the market falls.

>>53969228
Wait til you find out about Delaware

BEPIS

>>53969124
OOOh, is that why you're literally defrauding the entire western economic system?
So your (((Cousin))) can cover his shorts? You could have just told him to stay out and cover his own losses?

>>53969231
good.

>>53969241
You are a moron. An extreme spike towards putts followed by a sharp decline in putts and rise in calls - short covering. where is 3900, 2 weeks?

>>53969205
yes with a credit check and drug test (must be hair no urine).

do you guys think we'll see 7% interest rates?

I can't believe aapl rose 3% on a dumbass analyst report. How does GS expect aapl to hit 200, when the avg consumer is expected to cut back. Why is amzn rising when retail is expecting worsening numbers?? Costco reported a huge decline in their ecommerce sector.

think about opening a post wit
>you guys
and expecting somebody seriously reading beyond
>you guys

>>53969271
i hope so, poors need to suffer more

>>53969271
>do you guys think we'll see 7% interest rates?
Yes.

>>53969271
Yes, but it'll be another year before we get there.

Changing my name to involve SKYT.

A $500 million company is going to get like $5 billion in handouts from the government which will turn it into a $50 billion company.

Mark my words, SKYT is the next fucking 100 bagger

>>53969247
Not my fault you bought a shitty company lol
get fucked loser

>>53969261
>people buy puts
>market maker sells stock short to delta hedge
>market rallies
>they need to buy back stock that they sold short
>market rallies harder due to this dynamic
>FOMO buyers think market is rallying
>they buy calls
>market maker must go long stock to delta hedge
>excessive bullishness, too many calls bought
>market falls
>market maker must now sell their long stock
>market falls harder

>where is 3900, 2 weeks?
why the rush? this is similar to
>humans are mortal
>yeah, well, if humans are mortal, why haven't you died yet??
>you're 85 and you're not dead yet, when's it going to happen, 86?
>human mortality is bullshit
below 3900 is coming, and it is inevitable

>>53969271
If inflation keeps going up we’ll be there by the Fall. Bulls can keep saying Powell is bluffing, but he’s not fucking around

That SPX 4000 support better hold bros

>>53969342
No.

>>53969338
yeah after we hit 5000 we might see 3900

>>53969161
so fine...

>>53969288
I love how powell is going to make every consumer go bust by dragging this inflation period. We will hold on to these level of rates for years.

>>53969272
>Why is amzn rising when retail is expecting worsening numbers?
They're closing a bunch of retarded Amazon Go locations.

>>53969338
>market falls
>miles above even the January low
>let alone the december lows

>Just wait
2 weeks? daily 100 VWMA is now at 3850

>>53969327
It's a shitty company, I'm not at all disagreeing.
What I don't agree is that a worm of a bitch tits curly haired stank ass brown skin Turk looking midget like you, is using nepotism and cult thinking to rob otherwise innocent people.

You do have an address and skin.

>OIL

>>53969271
I want those god tier 30 year bonds boomers had in the 80s

>>53969324
SKYT is going to be a -1 bagger soon enough.

>>53969360
>what is a bear market rally
>what is inflation resurgence
>what is higher for longer
>what is dollar relative strength soaring

>>53969375
redpill me on bonds because i don't fucking get it

>>53969375
true
bonds have always been something to laugh at ever since i started investing (2011)

>>53969351
>after we hit 5000
we haven't even hit 5k on 0% rate, there is literally no possible way to get higher than the ath with rising rates

Have you guys been making money in this market the past few weeks?
I have been getting wacked left and right trying to swing trade this utter trash. Been in the same spot for the past month.

>>53969271
Or higher I want those god tier 30 year bonds boomers had in the 80s

Sorry after your first arrow didnt read. Consider yourself hidden now. You identified yourself as astro turfer

>>53969391
>krugman comes to power

>>53969374
How can a company with proven success thats about to get billions from the feds go under bro. Its gonna make me rich bro.

>retard detected

>>53969375
>>53969395
Wtf I thought it didn't go through fuck 4chan

I'm starting to think I don't *ever* want to sell my BOIL, no matter what.

this is now a baggie thread

But seriously, why is the Nasdaq holding up when everything else is eating shit? Where is the AMZN and NVDA retard strength coming from?

Am I the only one here who thinks inflation CPI report next week will show it's coming down in FEB? Look at commodity prices...

I guess we close the gap to 3981

fuck me

at least i'll always have my ibonds

>>53969405
All-in on 2041 SPY 150 puts.

>>53969420
META
The shitter went up because of more layoffs.

>>53969437
Those are some expensive puts lad

recession + credit event by q3

>>53969464
Well to minimize theta decay you want to buy them some time before the market freezes, but after Operation Wakanda.

>>53969421
>Look at commodity prices...
Boomer rocks and oil are incredibly manipulated, gas is honked because of the geopolitical situlation. Unless you're analyzing the unit prices of beef steak, eggs and milk then the commodities don't say a whole lot.

>>53969409
wake me up after SKYT is in the low single digits like around $4 again

if the market is too optimistic about rates it means that SPY is a bad idea right? ;_;

GBP Sisters. Not like this...

>>53969375
When bonds are that high it's just better to buy stocks.

>>53969504
Why do you buy it so out? might as well trade shares at this point

>>53969508
I think he means for things feeding into CPI. But even with stable guzzoline prices, we're still fucked on account of wage pressures and companies hiking prices in defense of margins.

Did you sell calls on SPY with me last week? Naked of course.

>>53969515
Basically anything with a double digit P/E gets fucked over by higher rates. Companies with high variable rate debt loads (or immediate financing needs) will get double fucked.

>>53969205
kek

>HIGHER, SHARPER AND LONGER

>>53969389
You could get a 30-year Treasury bond yielding around 15% (1981) or 13.5% (1984). As interest rates fell over the next few decades, that yield was amazing.

>>53969551
The fixed rate is a huge thing. Many reits are doing completely fine right now because after getting buttfucked in 2008 they worked to make almost all their debt fixed and something like 9 years out

Worst case scenario they stop taking new debt and let their properties make new income. And a lot them have inflation adjusted NNN leases too

>>53969375
>I want those god tier 30 year bonds boomers had in the 80s
You're not going to find that, at least not in the United States, not right now. Too much debt, not enough growth potential, real yields are trash and will remain trash.

Perhaps if you look abroad there are some foreign bonds that might see good returns relative to USD. Brazilian 10 year bonds yield 13% for example, in a currency that's been roughly at parity with USD since 2020.
If you're bullish on their commodities exports and they maintain positive trade balances while avoiding political traps, there is potential there. Perhaps there are other currencies in a similar boat. Worth remembering that back in the 70s/80s when treasuries pushed to double digit longterm yields, everyone thought the US dollar was just gonna be permanently fucked.
Contrast that vs today where, clearly, the US dollar is in fact permanently fucked and yet 30y treasury sits at 4% because of pension funds and insurance floats, and boomers that think 60/40 is mandatory.

>>53969515
wouldn't an "optimistic rate outlook" mean lower rates / rate cuts? in this case spy would rip hard
not going to happen though. Jpow confirmed today again - higher for longer

>>53969583
Its hilarious watchinf people panic over 5% rates when we used to be above 15%

>>53969530
It's a joke about this chart, riffing off the stock market history for 1930's and 40's Germany.

I am STILL just holding cash since January of 2022

>>53969515
>>53969602
ah I'm retarded you mean the market.. yes spy not a good choice

>>53969421
Yeah I think that Powell and Fed know what they are doing.

>>53969604
The wonders of having a Greece-tier 120% debt-to-GDP ratio...

>>53969588
Yeah, office REITs are fucked but our 30 year fixed mortgage buff protects residential real estate way more than Canada or Australia or wherever.

>>53969604
Don't you understand that the market has been propped by fake money for more than a decade?
Without free cash all these zombie companies can't exist anymore.

sneed (fuck janny)

>>53969079
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTTgpTeb0Z8

No one posted the bobo slicing the mumu up with the chainsaw ;-;

>>53969621
Didn't you know? "Pound" is short for "Pound me in the ass"

>>53969604
>historically illiterate brainlet detected
https://www.macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-gdp-ratio-historical-chart
it's very different to have 15% rates at 35% debt to gdp ratios than 5% rates at 120% ratio
>pic related

>>53969122
I'm still waiting for Citibank to tell me how bad they plan to screw me on my 700 LUKOY shares

>>53969593
>real yields are trash and will remain trash
At the moment, 30-year TIPS yield 1.5 percentage points over CPI. That is indeed trash, but a year ago it was negative.

>>53969687
>yfw you realize COLA means we can't inflate away SS debt
>yfw you realize cutting Medicare is politically impossible
>yfw demographics
>yfw you have no face

>>53969621
>>53969677
kek

OK, smug, I have dialed in 35% contribution on my company's 401k
the max allowed. what next

>>53969710
>what next
just go AAAAA for a few years

>>53969710
Depending how your company handles matching funds, you may be better off dialing in 10% or whatever so you max out contributions with your last paycheck in December. I've had that dick me out of a couple thousand bucks before.

>>53969621
UK same yield level like last year where (((they))) did an emergency QE due almost blowing up overleveraged pension funds
repeat of 2022. here we go again

Why didn't the market dump harder

>>53969368
What in niggeration are you talking about? He can't short BBBY because that makes him a jew?

>Nattygas

>>53969720
the funds are directed to a self directed investment account. so they ask remain cash
>>53969723
plan to dial back down in a few pay periods. just want to make sure I have a good amount before the AAAAAAA happens for real

Why is the USD getting stronger killing the US?

Don't call me Poopy Puppy. I am a serious trader and I don't appreciate being ridiculed. Losing money is part of the game, but it doesn't make me any less of a trader. So please show some respect or don't bother talking to me at all.

>>53969746
they remain as* cash

we are so fucked

>>53969409
>about to get billions from the feds
Tell me you didn't read the CHIPS act fact sheets without telling me you didn't read it.

The actual subsidy is structured to cover 5-15% of development costs max. Proposals will be evaluated relative to current company capabilities. There are a bunch of clauses to guarantee pregnancy leave, daycare, union support, and other bullshit democrat propaganda to pretend they care about worker's rights.
99% of the money is going to go to intel and other megacaps, and will be squandered. None of that will show up in shareholder returns. SKYT being a small cap with no immediate capability to expand will get 150-200 mil max. The entire thing is structured to treat the industry like utilities and regulate any future success. The returns will be positive but they'll be shit. There's a clause for the government to recapture excess returns.

It's ironic, but the chips act is actually worst case scenario for SKYT. They have a niche right now. Next decade, they'll have nothing. They'll be outscaled and unable to compete.

If you want to read the actual facts, all currently public information is visible through links here:
https://www.nist.gov/chips

>>53969753
yeah nah

>>53969751
Because other countries are shitting the bed harder.
The Euro is at 2% interest rates.

>Faces of the lost decade

>>53969726
Should’ve just let the pension funds explode, fuck the boomers we’ve now got 10% inflation just to save boomers retirement

>>53969746
>plan to dial back down in a few pay periods. just want to make sure I have a good amount before the AAAAAAA happens for real
Well if you're not OCD about seeing it all in one account, you can do the work of setting up a traditional or Roth IRA and sending your extra money there. That does require a bit of legwork and forecasting what amount will let you max them out by year's end but those are good steps to take.

buy BIL retards

You laughed when I said it was a real crash because the news was avoiding it. get fucked mumus.

laugh and the world laughs with you

>>53969751
Stronger USD drives down asset prices, which kills tax revenue, which kills our debt-to-GDP.

>>53969164
It feels like market manipulation to shake people out so people that are smart don’t sell while the midwit masses capitulate

>>53969775
Isn’t it 3%

>>53969621
i want the UK to crash and burn

t. currently live here

>>53969803
oh look a lost redditor crying manipulation, leave the market faggot open a saving account

>>53969738
same reason you only cum like 12 sperms

>>53969779
We got 10% inflation because the dumbass, broke, financially illiterate losers that make up the majority of this country wanted free $1200 paychecks, as if that's even a lot of money.

>>53969164
nothing has really changed in terms of fed policy, everything will be riding on payrolls friday and cpi next week

>>53969778
>Faces of the pussies who think a regular Fed meeting schedule and 0.whocares% hikes deal with double digit inflation

>>53969819

Is this a good choice for 401k?

>>53969803
This market is just dead nothing but algos trading this market. The moments we do move is in pm and ah

>>53969763
woah, the smoothest 1979 I've seen in a while. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr58WHo2ndM

>>53969831
I’m talking about the U.K., in burgerland you guys only have 6% inflation our inflation is a lot worse than yours because they did emergency QE to save the pension funds when the bond market nearly collapsed

>>53969821
same + based.
t. also live here and I'm a paki and even I want it to burn

ONLY 3800 MORE SHIT AND PISS POINTS DOWN UNTIL THE MARKET IS FAIRLY VALUED.

>>53969837
because this time it's different

>>53969751
>what are positive carry trades
thank the F.E.D. for higher interest rates

>>53969409
If you were actually confident in your holdings you wouldn’t need to coompost to shill.

The market would rather run at 10% inflation than raise rates higher.

>>53969843
Your third choice is massively underperforming SPY by picking crap like this in exchange for a 0.5% expense ratio. What other options do you have?

>>53969837
>double digits
greentext retard detected

>>53969772
Ok, I read the “Vision For Success: Commercial Fabrication Facilities” and saw nothing about diversity or how everything is going to intel.

Why are you FUDding SKYT with links that don’t back up your claim?

>>53969851
How’s the ftse 100 at all time highs?

>>53969892
Literally look at the left hand side of your chart. That's when they were hiking by 0.75% (oooh, so scary!) every couple months.

The Powell F.E.D. is trying to wait out inflation, just like Burns.

>>53969837
kek

I shouldn't have sold my DXY, fugg

i went back for more

>>53969918
Stopped reading after
>literally
just stay with greentext shitposts retard

>>53969914
A lot of reasons, biggest one is probably because it’s full of mining and oil companies which have out performed general stocks. Also the pound getting crushed is good for exports

>>53969911
50bps

>>53969375
>>53969395
Interest rates in the 80s peaked at 16% during early 80s and dropped to 9% during late 80s, but national debt was 30x less during early 80s and 15x less during late 80s then it is now. So if we have 7% interest rates with the amount of debt we have now it’d be comparable to a 105%-210% interest rate in the 80s. Won’t happen, too much debt to have high interest rates, people are in so much debt that small increases in debt are alot more impactful.

For example Somebody with a million dollar mortgage today paying a 7% interest rate means 70k a year whereas in the 80s a 30k mortgage for a full sized house at 16% would only be $4800 a year.

>70,5% 50 bepis

>>53969940
Amazing how slow equities are to price this in, it's kind of like an arbitrage opportunity

>>53969919
>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee remained concerned about the level of inflation, and Volcker made a dramatic move to attack the problem. During a rare press conference on the evening of October 6, 1979, the Saturday before Columbus Day, Volcker announced the results of an unscheduled FOMC meeting held earlier that day.
>rare press conference on the evening of October 6, 1979, the Saturday
>Saturday
>unscheduled FOMC meeting held earlier that day
-https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/anti-inflation-measures

Everyone wants to be Paul Volcker until it's time to do Paul Volcker shit.

>>53969966
the problem is fed funds futures move like shitcoins after big news too

>>53969161
That is somebody's daughter.
What is the point in working hard for a well kept lawn if you cant sit it's amidst as the cold breeze blows over the flowers and then through your nose rejuvinating every cell in your body and envigorating every thought with solace and every action with eudemonic satisfaction?

Baking

>>53969979
I see, so you need to see if it sticks before equities can adjust

>We stopped serving low inflation Mr. Powell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkwQ6EjLdMQ

>>53969966
It’s almost like it’s bullshit eh?

>>53969929
Dumping the SPR until oil hits OPEC's floor and waiting for shipping companies to give up on LA and Long Beach isn't what gets you back to 2%. It gets you to 5%, which, after a few months, reignites things.

>>53969945
Yeah we can just print more money to solve the problem for good. Anyone who doesn't see today as super bullish is crazy. Powell basically said that he gave up controlling inflation. And congress clapped cause they get to tell him to put more darkies in the fed

>>53969979
>>53969966
guns loaded for a squeeze now when they inevitably go back to 25 bepis

>>53969892
>truflation
Debunked.

you can stop replying, once you are out in a thread for shitposting you stay out, your posts dont exist for that threads duration

>>53969891
I have principal

>HIGHER AND LONGER
Lmao and you mumu faggots thought uncle Jerome’s Wild 50bps ride was over...

>>53970022
some of us have that dawg in em to keep powering through

>>53969965
You think that’s bad, just wait until the clown show Powell has to subjugate himself to tomorrow. Representatives will have all sorts of retarded questions that’ll be trying to swing the market up or down tomorrow, so buckle up

>>53970006
We’re so fucked it’s unreal

we're right at the 31.8 fib bros, who's going long?

>>53969914
>uk does Uber qe
>why are stonks up
You serious?

>>53969997
we priced in around 35% on the 50bps side just on today's Jpow comments alone
if for example lower cpi comes in then the shit moves again hard
it's just bullshit

Lithium is bussin but uranium is sussin, time to load up on uranium stonks?

>>53969912
>Why are you FUDding SKYT with links that don’t back up your claim?
The official government source is now FUD?
lmao

You're so delusional it's probably not even worth conversing with you. Tell me, how is a company with a $500m market cap, $30m in cash on their balance sheet, and negative current year free cashflows going to fund the other 65% of these billions of dollars worth of development expenses to build the facilities you think the government is giving them for free?
One way they can get funding is to raise more capital, but are you really that hyped for SKYT to dilute the fuck out of you? You do realize that if SKYT does $5 bil in share offerings to bring in outside investors to partner on a CHIPS act proposal, your shares don't magically 10x. You're left holding 10x less of a company that's 10x bigger, with shares trading around the same price.

Even that $200m subsidies projection I made is a bullish scenario and would be a 10+ year timeframe to pay out.
The vast majority of the funding is all going to Intel because intel has the scale and capability to submit proposals today that request billions in funding. They have the workforce to utilize that funding, and capability and trust to hire more new workers at scale. SKYT does not. It's that simple.

Yet another day of market moving on no news. Insider trading at its finest

>>53970006
Where is this floor? 60?

>>53970097
fed dropped news you absolute retard

>>53970041

>>53970097
>no news

>>53970097
Jerome Powell said his favorite brand of mayo was Dukes do with that information what you will anon but I assure you that IS news

>>53969922
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFNr9FnpZBk

>"Inflation is transitory now that the pandemic is over"
>"Inflation is because of the supply chain"
>"Okay fine we'll raise rates but we don't really need to do this"
>"Okay inflation is still rising but it stopped accelerating and is sitting at 6.5%. Time to go to the most bare bones bitch rate hikes of 25 bps because again"
>"To everyone's surprise, seriously no one could have predicted this, inflation is rising again. We might need to do more than 25 bps hikes"
I think Powell and all economic "experts" might be a genuinely retarded.

>>53970106
no news was dropped. Just a senate hearing

BUDDY CHECK SHIT & PISS 500 COMPUTER

>>53970097
>Powell: I’m not fucking around, I will do a 50 bps hike and I will get to 2% inflation
>market: meltdown

Bulls keep swearing to hell and back that Powell and the Fed are bluffing and we won’t be able to accomplish 2% inflation with the level of debt the US has. Powell repeatedly emphasized that he doesn’t give a fuck about the debt and will go as high as he needs to

>>53969608
Me since November 2021. Only viable one year play might be nat gas but who knows so instead I'm going for real life improvements on the house and such. No loans either. Can this motherfucker crash already?

>>53970124
>I think Powell and all economic "experts" might be a genuinely retarded.
No it's worse because they have so much academic narcissism that it's more accurate to label them insane.

>>53970148
Dude there were retards claiming deflation was coming

>>53970102
OPEC has said they consider the market "well balanced" these past few months where it's kangarooed in the 70's. Biden's DOE has also said they'd refill the SPR if WTI was in the 68-72 range.

But most reliably, Cramer expects a bottom in oil at 65.

>>53970159
still might be if excess deaths keep trending the way they have been

>>53969912
...and here's some more. Printed the exact same document you just called FUD. Maybe try using your eyes and scrolling past the first paragraph next time you read something.

>>53970182
Excess what now

>>53970159
Deflation is even worse for the markets. How stupid can one be?

>>53970148
Counterpoint: He needs to say "guys, I mean it, I won't give up until we hit 2%. For real! Seriously!" regardless of what will actually happen or what he expects to happen. Jawboning like that is one of the Fed's few tools.

>>53970065
They’re doing QE right now? I didn’t know that, sounds retarded. Very retarded

at the end of the day fed will stick to 25bps (good for short-term trade on long side) but dot plot will show higher for longer = more 25bps (good for medium to long-term shorts because bear market will last a long time)
as a trader with at least two (2) working braincells you trade both sides, but going long now is not the right time after we close on today's lows.
that's what my crystal ball tells me I bought from a jew

>>53970190
Give me cheapies, nigger

>>53970194
They did some special QE to save the pension funds, what’s a few hundred billion between friends?

Does Jim Biden not realize how much inflation is hurting trans migrant POC single parents?

>>53970148
>50 bepis is now bobo delusion hope
what happened to 120 bepis?

>>53970136
>S&P 500
Stop shilling your penny stock.

>>53970194
Yeah did you miss it? They had a massive bond crisis and had to force QE to stop their pension system from collapsing

>>53970190
Why? Because it's hard to press a button on the computor to make more monies to "combat" deflation. Anyone thinking we'll have deflation clearly are incapable of wiping their own butts.

>>53970203
>that's what my crystal ball tells me I bought from a jew
The only thing that crystal ball tells you is to buy BABA because it has been ordered via AliExpress for 1/10 of the price you bought it

>>53970203
>at the end of the day fed will stick to 25bps (good for short-term trade on long side)
No shot. The Fed never surprises when it gets down to the last week or two and >futures are pricing in a particular number.

How is 4.75 interest rate supposed to tame 6.5% inflation?

>>53970245
>6.5% inflation
You believe that number?

SPY about to fall under 50DMA again

>bepis intensifies

>>53970245
Trust the experts chud

>>53970257
What's the number for that? And where's the 200?

>>53970211
Stop lumping me in with one of those permabears. Powell has work to do, but I don’t expect to see any meaningful change until student loans restart in July. We all know McCarthy won’t let Biden increase taxes and Biden won’t let McCarthy slash welfare. So Congress isn’t coming to help, but the Supreme Court eventually will

>powell says we need to giga print to avoid default
>market dumps
I don't get it

>>53970259
Someone explain this to me like I'm retarded

>>53970244
fed raising to 50bps again after lowering to 25bps would harm them even more because they show how they have literally no clue (which is true anyway).
going with 25bps or 50bps doesn't matter anyway if the terminal rate target is higher than the market thinks it is

>>53970259
I cannot imagine how inverted the bond curve is about to become

>>53970270
The bepis will enter your bunghole and you will lose money
Captcha: TAXA0Y

>>53970270
Odds of interest rates raise at the March 22nd FOMC meeting. Left column is inferred odds of 25 bps (which is what the market was expecting until today), right is odds of 50 bps increase.

>>53970271
Gigaprinting means a 6% 10 year. A 6% 10 year means some gimmick, high risk trash like Apple is a ripoff at 25 P/E.

Sell.

Buy.

>>53969843
fidelity funds are fucking shit, they always underperform vanguard AND have way higher fees

>>53970298
Real estate is alsp going to pump like crazy because short term bonds will be almost double the index average

>>53970282
Agreed on the terminal rate being key, but they've said since forever that they have no clue (or rather "are data-dependent"). I think that gives them enough of an out (especially if doves think a Powell who overhikes gets removed and leaves a political opening for one of them to become chair).

>>53969843
Theres no reason to have the total market and the s&p
Either go for 100% the total market or 80% total market and 20% international

>>53970319
You mean dump, right? Because if mortgage rates are 9-10%, uh...

sirs please do not redeem equities, everything is fine do not open your eyes or listen to your ears.

>>53970336
Yeah I'm super dyslexic or whatever its called. Whenever theres two things (right vs left, pump vs dump) my brain will swap them

>>53969418
With Warren Buffet as my witness, ideally this is how we should all feel about every stock or bond we buy.

>>53970323
>especially if doves think a Powell who overhikes gets removed and leaves a political opening for one of them to become chair

It’ll never happen, especially with a split Congress. Republicans would go nuclear if Powell was removed as Fed chair

just realised that bond etfs dont have the usual 30% partial tax exemption in my country
I hate the govt so fucking much

>>53970316
They're index funds, should they closely align to Vanguard's equivalent?

>>53970188
more people dying than expected, which has been increasing

We wouldn’t be in this mess if he was latinx

>>53970367
Yes they will perform identically to the Vanguard ones. /smg/ is just weirdly retarded when it comes to etfs and index funds

>>53970374
what does being a twink have to do with anything?

>>53970381
expense ratios and other fees can matter if you got the funds

We close green. Screenshot this post

>>53970367
>>53970381
It varies between funds (Fidelity has some 0.00% ones I think), but they'd Jew you out of pennies. Or, I guess hundreds of dollars a year, depending on how much you have invested.

>>53970404
put money onnit 399c 0dte

>>53970404

is 60/40 stocks/bonds dead?

We close. Screenshot this post

>>53970427
look at 2022

>>53970431
no.

>>53970267
no meaningful change is the key. Nothing ever happens, while inflation has keeping its trend down, no matter the feds policies and interestingly not really effected by dems retarded spending and pumping of military industry through public policy spending.
>>53970282
There are still people taking the feds tea leaf reading of terminal rates serious? The first time they got me, the second time I was warry, but now after the forth revision and obvious attempt at coercive propaganda of their policy, I stop caring for the feds momentary assessments

>>53970323
it might be true if cpi, pce, jobs or wage growth still come in hotter than expected the "data-dependency" will give him an easy 50bps because market prices this in before the next meeting anyway
the dot plot projections they will release on next meeting will probably be the key.

>>53970370
the baby boomer bubble is popping

>>53970427
The entire reason for bonds is that they're countercyclical: things go bad -> people buy 100% totally safe treasuries.

What happens there when the "thing going bad" is treasuries themselves dying?

>>53970381
>>53970411
Anons the fee's are so low its irrelevent. FXAIX is 0.015% which means they will charge you $150 to manage $1,000,000 which itself will pay out over $10,000 in divys. Its negligible to the point of autism

>>53969079
Don't disrespect the posting etiquette for general OPs, faggot.

I will just continue investing in good, quality companies and good things will come to me.

Kinda funny how you can post one single piece of factual information and the shills just outright vanish.

>>53970465
Heh be a investor not a trader kid

>>53970465
Personally I like Stephen Q.Q. Quarles' plan to take over and liquidate the Nasdaq.

>>53970456
then you switch to the 3month

>>53970465
But price determines whether an investment is good.

>>53970465
uh, what the fuck am I reading

>>53970456
>>53970427
when bonds shit themselves the etfs get some nice divy payouts

>DISH is up 5%
wtf

>>53970489
>>53970476
https://gotham.com/
Passive investing is over. The age of stock pickers has come.

>>53970442
>There are still people taking the feds tea leaf reading of terminal rates serious?
yeah you should. market always takes a fat multi weeks dump after their projections are higher than expected.

52:40
kennedy says unemployment will have to be 11% to reach 2% goal
citing 10 previous disinflationary periods where unemployment has to rise x% to reduce inflation y%
his point being congress should cut spending to help him raise unemployment

>>53970492
>uh, what the fuck am I reading
Cold, hard truth. Put simply and nicely, for tard-anons to understand.

Stop shilling SKYT to smg anon, they’re a lost cause. Just enjoy your future gains.
They could have bought at $9.

> he keeps buying

>>53970515
>his point being congress should cut spending to help him raise unemployment
He won't be invited again.

>>53970493
Long term, sure, maybe that helps a smidge if you play it right. But it's small consolation when EDV is down 30+% in the past year (and 10% in the past 3 months).

Bonds are supposed to act as ballast to stabilize a 60/40, not sink it.

>>53970495
Feels good to be a semiconductor chad. NVDA and AMD leading the way. High P/E? Honestly, who gives a crap?

>>53970527
how does $1 sound to you?

Where is the anti-Cramer etf? I’m fucken waiting.

what's the smg consensus on truff shills

>>53970511
>stock pickers
Unfortunately, you mean the good ones, not us.

>>53970455
yea well it's happening in all age groups

>>53970548
SJIM is out mate

>>53970544
The secret is that inflation fucks everything except tips

>>53970548
Anon, I...

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sjim

>>53970513
No. Their commentary has lost its teeth after showing they are sailing blind depending on the same data everyone else sees. They have no plan on terminal rates and no way to assess them; effectively their statements are now on the level of any other attention whore, irrelevant

>>53970545
P/E doesn’t matter for semis, only growth.
Semis are not cyclical anymore either. Boomers living in the 90s.
Smg is full of “my first bear market” fags.

>Oatsanon was right
What did he know?!

>>53970527
see >>53970091

I await your next post on a fresh ID.

>>53970564
>>53970561
Why didn’t you doomer faggots tell me?

>>53970590
I swear I posted about it when it went live. But maybe that got lost in the NANC/KRUZ shuffle.

>>53970584
Get help

>>53970582
Damn, metals are getting severely heemed today... yet my gold stock is up, wtf even is this market?

>>53970531
they want to look forward so hard

>>53970610
Take your meds, schizo

>>53970620
this is an anti-med sub reddit anon

>>53969647
>but our 30 year fixed mortgage buff protects residential real estate way more than Canada or Australia or wherever
Please elaborate on that "buff," because I honestly done know what you're referring to.
Ty.

>>53970617
metals going this low again is a gift

>>53970590
Lurk more, it was posted on the very same day it went online

>>53970572
they revise their projections anyway but the initial release will bring market up/down if something unexpected shows

>>53970634
Agreed, but the stocks are still pretty expensive. Hopefully they will keep dropping at least another two days so I can load up even more. And then I am just gonna get outperformed by fags holding NVDA and Tesla, kill me

>>53970634
This anon gets it. I might get another opportunity to buy BHP at $50

>>53970582
Are lean hogs the only way to beat inflation these days?

>>53970644
momentarily maybe, but the effects they have are going to keep declining. why, simply because more and more market participants see through the bullshit charade that is being played and the attempt to show strength and decisiveness where the reality is weakness and flip flopping on momentary data

>>53970638
I haven’t posted here in a while because smg is going through it’s edgy doomer phase.

>>53970632
So the idea is that raising rates constricts the money supply because suddenly loans are more expensive, right? No one buys Funko Pops if they have to pay higher interest rates on their credit cards instead.

In the US people usually fix their mortgage's interest rate for 30 years. So that's a huge potential interest rate cost that gets taken out of the Fed's hands. Whereas somewhere like Canada or Australia people will have their mortgage interest rates adjust after a few years. So if the Bank of Canada hikes, alllll those homeowners start paying more practically overnight. This also forces them to sell and reprice homes much faster.

Compare it to a Boomer in the US who can go "I'll just sit on my 3% mortgage another 25 years rather than sell my house, move to a new place, and pay 7%".

>>53970185
Skywater has three fab facilities in the US while Intel has two. Hmmm, which one of these companies (over bloated failing Intel or up and coming Skywater already working hand in hand with the defense industry) will the oligarchs want to pump?

Buy Rycey. They had great earnings. build engines for fighter jets and will handle nuclear power

>reits down 2.5%
My paychecke literally cannot come fast enough. I want to slurp so much

>>53970578
revenue growth rates
TXN -3%
AMD +20%
NVDA -20%
INTC -30%
QCOM -10%
AVGO +20%
MU -50%
TSM +43% but IIRC they guided down a tad

If I had to pick one itd be avgo or tsm. But just compare TSM p/e to NVDA.
Retail circus clowns are driving the market in the short term. in the long term P/E always wins out. Because eventually they get bored of the latest hype and jump on a new thing

MU reminds me of 2018, it was cyclical then too, -50% revenue? how is that not cyclical

>>53970659
>>53970654
RIO, FCX, PAAS are all absolute gifts rn. Will check BHP as well, ty anon.

>>53970620
>take your meds
Meds are bad for pattern recognition.

>>53970674
Always have been.

>>53970692
>there are people that don't have fixed rate mortages
I will never understand

>>53970584
>Intel baggie lashes out

Hmm, you sound nervous.

>>53970677
Borrowing money to grow a business at decades high levels of interest is not a "bullshit charade", no matter what the Fed says.

>>53970700
>retail
>driving markets
stop shitposting

>>53970714
He genuinely thinks only one person holds SKYT.

>>53970703
Yeah I might get into RIO again. As for PAAS, I'm not touching anything silver related. Boomer rocks go down on good news and even lower on bad news most of the time.

>>53970700
TSM also has something like $2 trillion in fab plans for 3nm and 2nmn coming online in a year or 2

>>53970706
>>53970620
>>53970630
post your meds anons

SOXS

I TOLD YOU ALL

SOXS

YOU DIDN'T LISTEN

SOXS

>>53970732

>>53970718
For all we know now, with the trends in place, that loan can be refinanced with a 0.5% loan in a year or 2. Now is the time to take risks and not hide and wait for your favorite influencer to tell you its save to be in again

>>53970634
This. Buy BHS.

>>53970712
I think the US is actually the only place on Earth where 30 year fixed is a thing. Thanks to Fannie and Freddie if I'm not mistaken.

>>53970748
kys

>>53970736
>9/10 doctors recommend this patient.

>>53970732

>>53970732
I’m on a lot of heart meds do those count? I’m heart anon. Still kicking.

>>53970732
I'm in your meds I'm in your meds

>>53970714
>Recognizes SKYT is overvalued dogshit
>Must be an INTC bagholder
lmao.

Notice how SKYT shills can never actually refute facts.

>>53970736
damn that's retarded

>>53970677
they will flip flop and they will overtighten. fuck it up due their lagging data indicators
you can't bring inflation down without massive growth slowdown. muh no landingi will be the ultimate 2023 meme

>>53970758
Are you staying relaxed? Were Rocker's vidya recommendations any good?

>>53970692
Aren't adjustable rate mortgages the norm in the US, too?

LAST /SMG/ EVER!

>>53970748
kek. I sold it at $0.2. Thank you redd*t for pumping my bags

>>53970781
not after 2008

>>53970764
It is foolish to argue with fools. At least you understand not every SKYT holder is one person. Baby steps.

>>53970774
and nobody will care if they do, knowing that they can just refinance a few months later at a lower rate

>>53970783
>he fell for the gayhorse scam at all
lol

>>53970703
The escobal restart is really pissing me off.

>>53970782
It was an honor shitposting with you trans-"people"

>>53970726
understandable but I am betting on silver/gold finding big bounces and the dollar entering a pretty big correction soon. All 3 just hit my targets today so we shall see if I will get heemed or do the heeming

>>53970781
ARMs are available (as are, like, 15 year mortgages) but fixed is more common, especially with people jumping on rock bottom rates the past decade. That's partly why home prices are fucked.

>>53970779
Yeah I’m getting better. I bought some of Rocker’s suggestions. Haven’t tried them yet.

>>53970467
You think your FUD means SKYT will not hit a $5 bill MC? You must hate money.

>>53970795
see you at s&p 2800

>>53970797
I bought it way before it was shilled here. Basically used redd*t pump n dumpers as exit liquidity.

>>53969772
Nobody reads them, not even the lawyers.
t. The Big Short

New >>53970827

>>53970816
I am sitting here holding my dick waiting for >3900 while you talk about 2700. Its not going to happen after it didn't manifest after the October FOMC

>>53969779
I guess the vaxx was supposed to solve that, but failed miserably.

>>53970561
Oh shit they finally did it

>>53970843
take some history lessons from the 1929 crash, sweaty
we're nowhere near done with muh Oct lows

>>53970846
2 MORE WEEKS

>>53970887
>Sweaty
you expect somebody to take your shitpost serious. you should have put a selective capslock in there to make it look more serious

>>53970931
I tried... at least you can participate as exit liquidity

>>53970313
The biggest hoax in the history of mankind

>>53970846
>how the federal gov’t handle inflation

>>53970783
>>53970797
I ironically have been buying BHSIF the last six months every few weeks as long as it's below .03. I've accumulated a nice bag.