/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53934844
priced in

current rates are 4.75% and markets are pumping
let THAT sink it

>>53934844
The market is wrong because the fed will start aggressively cutting rates before the end of this year. We'll be at 0% rates again long before the end of 2024.

>>53934859
>the markets are retarded
>I’m retarded too
>everything will be fantastic forever
this is going to be so bad…

>>53934866
This is your brain after 14 years of QE. They can (and they will) keep rates elevated for years. They need to fix the mess they created.

>>53934844
So its priced in nice

>>53934881
>fix the mess they created
>by paying an impossible debt with hyper-inflated currency
hold onto your assholes boys

>>53934866
Wrong. If they cut rates before 2025 inflation will shoot back up higher than last year’s peak. Inflation won’t be solved until all the fake wealth and boomer equity is destroyed. Powell knows the housing market needs to crash and boomer retirement accounts need to be halved

>>53934878
Yeah dumb retard rates used to be higher over decades and stocks pumped
>>53934881
Scumbag lie 2018/19 was QT

>>53934881
>>53934893
They CANT keep the rates high because of the usa state debt which is huuuuuge
They NEED to pivot and we know it

>>53934866
You wish baggie

>>53934913
Holy cope

>>53934878
3>4>1>2

>verification not required.

>>53934896
and how much debt existed last time rates were this high compared to how much debt exists now? you’re scared. that’s good, because you should be. I’m not your enemy. I’m not the one who’s going to take everything from you. I’m just warning your dumb faggot ass about what’s coming. don’t shoot the messenger.

>>53934924
Everyone using "cope" as argument should be legally executed.
Please explain how they will pay 5 trillion intrest per year while also increasing military spending and Ukraine money
YOU CANT

>>53934881
Lmfao permabobos actually think they'll continue raising rates kek.

>>53934913
If the USD loses world reserve currency status then debt is the least of our worries

>>53934931
Ok so that would be 2007
9 trillion debt to now 31 trillion (officially)
See the difference even Inflation adjusted thats max 18 trillion to 31 trillion
And back then no cold war started

>>53934924
That's not cope, that's literally how it works and what will happen. Let me guess you think Powell will just raise rates indefinitely? Regardless of the debt and bond market?

>>53934950
>our
Im no burger
That would be great
The fact that they cant sell their bonds points in the right direction
(Inb4 some retard explains to me that when the dollar loses world currency status that is somehow bullish for the dolar)

>>53934954
are you trying to say the debt is manageable because it’s only three and a half times what it was the last time we had a massive economic collapse? I’m just trying to make sure I understand you correctly

>>53934954
This. The only thing we could truly do to "win" this thing is cut welfare, cut rates, raise wages. It will lock in the new standard of inflation but we really don't have a choice.

>>53934852

No it isn't. The stock market is the most retarded when it comes to investment markets. The FED is literally telling you what they're going to do. The Bond market is telling you what the FED is going to do.

If the stock market was always "priced in" I wouldn't be constantly smoking the S&P 500 in returns, even during bear markets.

The "priced in" meme needs to fucking die.

>>53934974

It means WW3. One way or another we're not losing reserve currency status.

>>53935015
this won’t happen. there will be a civil war before people are willing to fight a foreign enemy

>>53934993
No im saying the opposite.
I say they cant raise rates or keep them high as they used to because then the interest is too much

>>53935015
Oh we're losing that status for sure, it's just a question if we're gonna make a big stink about it or not (we will)

>>53935002
While i agree that its not priced in like i joked before, the only meme that needs to die is that the fed is everything

>>53935025
kek I bet you’re not even anti-semetic. you have no idea what’s coming…

>>53934866
>>53934878
>>53934881
>>53934891
>>53934893
>>53934896
>>53934913
>>53934931

What you cunts don’t realise is the Geo-Political aspect of it.

>dollar wrecking ball
The US could keep interest rates high for years, this will destroy every other currency before it hurts America. If their number one priority is maintaining US Dollar hegemony and keeping their Empire intact, this is what they’ll do.

>Zombie Corps and Boomer McMansions
Alternatively, if they don’t slash rates hard and fast very soon they’ll have to deal with half the companies in the S&P going bankrupt because they can’t service their debt. Also all the markets (RE, Equities etc) will crash because keeping rates high will cause a severe recession.

So the choice is binary, crash the economy to save the empire. Or, save the markets and destroy the empire.

I don’t know which one they’ll go with but I suspect they’ll keep rates high (to notionally fight inflation but really to harm every other currency) while at the same time do QE to keep Wall Street happy.

>>53935028

lol lose it to who? The chinks? Whose naval fleets consist of tugboats? fucking kek

>>53934939
>>53934957
Imagine being this clueless.

>>53935055
the american dollar is already dead. gold-backed currency is coming back. commodities will be king again

>>53935041

You're right on that. The stock market acts like it's everything though. They care more about liquidity and collateral than they do about actual business fundamentals.

>>53935054
>I bet you’re not even anti-semetic

>>53935072
Great Argument

>>53935127
Most of the debt is on the long end, retard.

>>53935171
Yeah they can cope with high rates for a while.
But not longer then two years or it gets critical.

>>53934881
The mess is out of their hands. The economy needs cheap money to stay afloat. If they raise rates too much the whole thing collapses.

>>53935098
On whose order?

The markets won’t voluntarily choose that (otherwise they would of already) and no government wants to shackle themselves to fiscal responsibility.

>>53935188
Nope, Fed Funds rate is largely irrelevant to government financing.

>>53934844
dude 4% is BULLISH we're at like 5% atm

>>53935210
This is just wrong
While rates were zero the interest was also around zero Its a very very strong correlation

>>53935238
Wrong, that had nothing to do with the fed funds rate. It was a direct result of QE during covid.

>>53934844
no bullrun until powell's current term ends so 2026 :)

>>53935210
>>53935265
Sure, nigger

>>53935309
That's the 2 year, dumbfuck.

>>53935265
>>53935318
Play retarded somewhere else nigger
Show me the 1y 10y

>>53935309
Damn are we that much corrected since 2008?

>>53935343
You you even know that the long end refers to? Embarrassing.

>>53935318
no shit

>>53935359
The only embassaring thing is you defending unlimited retardation.
>Nope, Fed Funds rate is largely irrelevant to government financing.

>>53935360
Try to keep up, smoothbrain. There is no practical difference between the Fed Funds and the 2year.

>>53935372
Holy fuck you're dense.

>>53935381
>Try to keep up, smoothbrain. There is no practical difference between the Fed Funds and the 2year.
>>53935372
>Nope, Fed Funds rate is largely irrelevant to government financing.

>>53935386
The OVERALL INTEREST RATE the government is paying is far below average. That's because they mostly borrow ON THE LONG END, which is not significantly effected by the Fed Funds rate. There is no correlation between the Fed Funds rate and the overall interest rate paid by the government.

>>53935418
>they mostly borrow ON THE LONG END
Wut? Just the shut up already

>>53934881
It’s nuts looking at my old passbook savings account from almost 20 years ago seeing how much monthly interest was rolling in from such a relatively small amount of cash. The transition to higher rates for longer just means a new perspective on managing cash is essential, something that’s a lot easier and less painful than trying to profit in an extended Bobo market, desu. Institutions are almost completely adjusted to this but the small fish are still figuring it out.

>>53935470
>t. literal retard

>>53935525
What does this have to do with anything. What maturity do you think US government debt has, 30 years?

>>53935418
>There is no correlation
Is a lie
Its a lagging correlation
But i argued this already here>>53935188

>>53935594
>What does this have to do with anything.
lol

>>53935635
Thats long term to you? lol

>>53935656

>>53935666
Picture of you, I assume.

>>53935671
You just got btfo. You might want to stop posting.

>>53935675
You got blown out a long time ago, nigger

>>53935635
Thats literally confirming me >>53935597
They cant afford to let it run up again because of the debt

>>53935890
Huh? The aggregate internet rate is close to its all time low.

>>53935932
And it needs to be refinanced shortly, because its not in 30 year bonds, you retard

>>53934844
>4%
topkek
We're going to be entering the 2030s with a FED funds rate well above (positive) 7%.

>>53935947
Average maturity is 6 years, dumbfuck. Even if they had to refinance everything on the short end, which they don't, T-bills are yielding only half the inflation rate.

>>53936044
Yeah, I don't know anything I would just like to add one thing to the argument.

Niggers, niggers everywhere. Have either of you factored that in? I feel like the fed is suppressing the real numbers, saying it's 12 percent but in reality they are trading derivatives on paper Whites to keep the real number (40 to 50 percent) down so nobody panics. I don't know I could be wrong, I used to live outside of Atlanta until I Scott Adams skedaddled, but if I'm not we are in a whole heap of trouble

>>53935932 >lagging
You dont argue in a honest way fuck off

>>53937030
There's no lag, retard.

>>53937093
HOLY RETARD
>>53935597
>Its a lagging correlation
Its LOW NOW because of the past
It will shoot up and force a pivot to save the usa debt
You understand but you are a douchebag

Banks have been issuing recent bonds at 5% YTM. If rates break 5% a lot of shit is going to hit a very large fan. Citibank recently issued at 7.5% so either they're in big trouble again or we're in for a world of hurt.

>>53937273
The guy might be seriously retarded, though.
I mean he seriously said there is no correlation between interest rates and government interest payment
rofl

>>53934844
The markets haven't figured out that TPTB would rather just get paid for being rich instead of micromanaging the lives of niggers through CBDCs and residential housing.

>>53937390
Meh, theyre just going to be bailed out again, and bond holders are always the first to be recompensated if things get that bad.

>>53937422
I guess the federal reserve is going the way of the BoJ then. Too bad burgerstan doesn't have the amenities and the qol Japanese get to enjoy.

>>53937447
Absolutely. Lost decade incoming.

>>53934844
the current rate increases aren't doing what they're supposed to (decreasing CPI) so whippings will continue until morale increases

the thing is, the more they raise rates, the faster de-dollarization will accelerate (especially china and japan, two of the biggest holders of dollar-denominated debt) and other countries will start liquidating their USD-denominated debt. once countries can settle energy purchases with Saudi, Russia, Indonesia and others in currencies other than dollar, this will accelerate exponentially, meaning that the Fed will have to increase interest rates even faster in order to make up for gaps in their budget sheet

in short, i think things will start to get worse much faster and it will happen this year, processes that have already begun will accelerate.

>>53937447
yield curve control won't work. none of this stuff happens in a vacuum. they are deliberately nuking the USD as a reserve currency to try and hold onto some semblance of normalcy and stability. now that saudis, chinese, russians are settling in currencies other than the dollar, the Petrodollar is dead and the 100+ countries of the former non-aligned movement will flee the USD like rats from a burning sinking ship, both out of spite and because paying huge amounts of interest on their dollar-denominated debt serves nobody's interest but the NY Fed and their prime dealers.

>>53937511
>>53937556
You're not wrong, but this will take at least a decade to pan out, countries straight up dropping the dollar is not going to happen overnight or even this year.

>>53937390
the upcoming meeting on 3/22 is a turning point. Powell will either announce another 25 basis point hike, putting rates at the 5% mark which many people have indicated might be a breaking point for banks around the world, or he'll announce a pivot/pause, which would be an admission of defeat because inflation is still retardedly bad (even if they refuse to admit it and try and skirt the issue by cooking CPI numbers)

it's really looking like shit will hit the fan in 2 weeks

>>53935194
exactly
but if they don't raise rates the whole thing collapses as well

>>53935188
your problem, like so many economists, is that you look at these issues in a sterile vacuum, like they exist in some rarefied atmosphere of numbers outside the real world.
in reality, economic factors are embedded in a very complex web of political, social, military, historical processes. in this case, the USD's status as world reserve currency, which is the foundation of the entire post-ww2 world order, and especially the US's status as world hegemon post-Berlin wall collapse. all of that is dissolving at an incredibly rapid rate.
and so, your trenchant analysis on why interest rates are actually low and things are going just great is not only retarded, but incredibly gay and wrong, and you're a huge faggot who should stop posting immediately

>>53937577
what blows my mind about people like you is how you are capable of speaking so confidently, like your worldview doesn't even start to permit uncertainty of any kind.
after the crash (which will happen suddenly), it will be so clear in retrospect. but since it hasn't happened yet, people like you are free to make sweeping proclamations.

(it'll be a cyberattack on internet and financial infrastructure that causes it, btw)

>>53937556
>paying huge amounts of interest on their dollar-denominated debt
Can you elaborate a bit on that? Why do people from outside the US take huge Dollar debt?

>>53934866
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2018/wil181130

>>53937675
We will see, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I'm not throwing all my investment capital into gold and beenie weenies just yet in anticipation of some kind of once in a lifetime paradigm shift happening out of the blue.

>>53937684
yes, i could elaborate on that topic at great length, but i don't really want to. so i will give the short version, which is: because they saw what happened to Saddam and Gaddafi when they decided not to

seignorage has always been the privilege of imperial powers/ hegemons within their respective spheres of influence. US/NATO/the anglo-zionist central bank empire is the first truly global hegemon, and the USD/petrodollar has been the global reserve currency since bretton woods. in many ways the "global war on terror" was about maintaining the supremacy of the petrodollar. however, as a result of many factors but most proximately the 2008 financial crisis/bail-outs, COVID disruptions and now Ukraine (and the ascendance of BRICS/China), the Petrodollar is no longer desirable, because (like we are discussing in this thread), it is susceptible to debasement, and other countries are forced to pay for the follies of the Empire (which i refer to as babylon)

here is UN Envoy on Climate and BoE economist Mark Carney giving a speech on this topic prior to COVID at the Fed's annual summit
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-jacksonhole-carney/world-needs-to-end-risky-reliance-on-u-s-dollar-boes-carney-idUSKCN1VD28C
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf

so, the world needs a global reserve currency, a neutral bridge currency, similar to what the IMF SDR is supposed to be. such a currency was actually proposed by Keynes and EF Schumacher and accepted by the great powers as part of the original Bretton Woods accords, called the Bancor, but the anglo-zionist central bankers torpedoed it which is how we got the petrodollar and the Cold War (which caused millions of deaths and the enslavement of billions in the global South)

anyway all that is ending so the USD is dying, which is why J Powell's sorry ass looks like he's about to cry every time he's on camera. Buy XRP.

>>53937746
>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2018/wil181130
>strategies for a low-neutral interest rate world
what about a negative interest rate world? it's been speculated that negative interest rates are a possibility, similar to what the ECB did to encourage monetary velocity

>>53937750
fair enough. but, consider this: once the paradigm shift has already started, stuff like gold, beenie weenies and ISO20022 cryptocurrencies (key to the smooth functioning of the multipolar, CBDC-driven digital economy) will be much more expensive, or even impossible to obtain, so it might behoove the forward-thinking investor to diversify at least a small part of their portfolio into these assets

or who knows! maybe i need to take meds.

sorry for calling you gay and retarded btw, i tend to get a bit worked up when talking about this stuff because most of the time i feel like the dude walking down the street in a sandwich board that says "THE END IS NEAR"

>>53937580
My man it is 25 or 50 benis points now https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

>>53935055
>The US could keep interest rates high for years, this will destroy every other currency before it hurts America.
Doubt. Also they would need to print to save interest which is QE

>>53935055
>The US could keep interest rates high for years, this will destroy every other currency before it hurts America.
You literally contradict yourself in the next paragraph

>>53937404 Kek
Im not sure felt like he had an agenda and wasnt interested in other opinions just wanted to convince people of his bearish view

>>53937647
I like your analysis, but i overemphasize on the Usa debt thing because every mainstream media is ignoring it. But its an extremely big factor. The USA need lots of money for all the war things they want to do. Historically wars were financed through the printing press. They SURELY dont plan to pay 3 trillion debt interest every year while not printing money

>>53935671
>Picture of you, I assume.

>>53938588
Do you even know what the discussion was about, nigger?

>>53937580
Delusion the post. There will be no pivot announced. The rate is going up .5%. Its already been hinted at by business moguls and heads at the fed. The rate is going way past 5% the next several months. The soonest a rate cut could occur is late 2024 / early 2025. Its already been laid out by the fed. How do you retards like you not know this? Its written plain as day in the latest fed notes ffs.

>>53938665
Read the thread first, the problem with this is the huge USA debt which makes longer periods of high rates impossible, especially when financing a cold war.

>>53938633
>Do you even know what the discussion was about, nigger?

>>53938702
Is this your new IP, fuckface?

Pretty sure much of this depends on the outcome of the war

>>53938701
Wages have gone up with inflation. The resulting taxes will cover the added expense. America is the wealthiest nation on the planet as well. Taxes are stupid low for the country. The gov can waive a majic policy wand and raise taxes as needed when it suites the nation's best interests. Don't underestimate the US gov/economic system. The money to cover the debt will be found, printed or pulled from thin air as needed.

I want this shit to collapse already, the longer they kick the can the worse it's going to be when they can't anymore. Fucking fed been destroying the economy since 1913

>>53938724
>Is this your new IP, fuckface?

>>53938741
>The resulting taxes will cover the added expense
Ha lol no
Inflation added expenses on its own and intrest is extra
>>53938741
>Don't underestimate the US gov/economic system
Yeah huge trade deficiet nothing special.
>>53938741
>printed
QE

>>53937273
>>53937404
>>53938488
There is no correlation, lagging or otherwise. I proved this fact already, meanwhile you dumbfucks have yet to provide any corroborating evidence. Because you can't.

>>53938907
Then why are interest payments going up, nigger?

>>53938907
>I proved this fact already
You argue like a jew honestly you did not but then just claim that

>>53938927
Interest is declining relative to debt, idiot.

>>53938952
>Arguing with logic and evidence instead of fallacious sophistry is "arguing like a jew"

>>53934844
BIDEN HARRIS 2024

>>53938989
You kikes really are getting nervous

>>53934881
>They need to fix the mess they created.
God you’re so fucking clueless and retarded. go back to plebbit nigger

>>53935055
The second most dumbest thing I’ve read in this thread. kys

>>53938555
checked
but when you run the printing press too hard, and make other people pay, it makes people look for other options
>>53938665
no, i agree 100%. but a .5% or higher rate hike when many countries are already teetering on the brink of default on their dollar-denominated debt has the potential to trigger a cascading liquidity crisis as countries debase their own local currency to try and pay their debt. this would be the mother of all fuck.

>>53934913
lmao, this guy thinks national debt is real

>>53937843
That's OK man. I am Bearish and I am looking go short the market big time at some point this year, and probably sooner rather than later. So I agree shit is about to hit the fan big time. FTX and its massive contagion was just a taste of things to come in this high interest rate environment for all these overleveraged zombie scam companies in our economy that were birthed from the past 10 years of cheap, easy liquidity. It is going to be so fucked. It is going to be Lehman Brothers/FTX x1000.

>>53939078
so, they slowed down from .5% interest rate hikes to .25% the last few months and now they're going to speed it back up, to .5% or even higher this month?
yeah this shit is about to collapse. it'll ripple outward. what happens when everyone defaults on their mortgage and car loans all at once, and all the mortgage-backed securities are revealed to be just as fake as they were in 2008? and the entire multi-Quadrillion-with-a-Q derivatives market goes poof?

now might be a good time to shift some of your investment portfolio into beenie weenies and candles, friends

>>53939078
The debt also went up, mongoloid.

>>53939170
it might not be for Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, but for the countries who have to exchange actual goods and commodities for US dollars, it's very real.
you guys realize that most of the global south, and a good portion of southern/eastern europe are already on the verge of having to be bailed out by the IMF, right? and every interest rate hike makes that issue much much worse?

you saw what happened in Sri Lanka, right? that is about to happen across like 20-50 countries at once when countries start going public with the fact that they have defaulted on the loans we've forced them to take over the last 30 years

>>53939218
Your IQ didnt went up, thats for sure

>>53939234
>didnt went

>>53939244
Way to ignore the point, nigger

>>53935024
I know I am for one 100% going to cause civil strife before I let anyone I love be sent to die for what the fuck the USA has become. They’ve alienated the entire population that can and will fight. We’re just in need of a non-ZOGged leader. Someone like Trump but more like Hitler than Trump, and America’s fighting spirit will emerge and expel all the virus that exists. It’s going to be bad, but pissed off white Americans are going to be almost unstoppable once they start the actual purgeacaust.

>>53939259
You don't have a point. You are too stupid to make a point.

>>53937750
>>53937843
>>53939203
How does one invest in these "beenie weenies"?

>>53939283
>arguing for hours that interest payments arent going up with interest rates
Just kill yourself already

>>53939296
>60 IQ mongoloid getting frustrated

>>53939458
So, you finally agree the interest payments go up with interest rates?

>>53939503
Reread the thread, mouthbreather. Treasury weighted interest rates are at all time lows.

>>53939518
No they arent, dumbass

>>53939529
I already proved that they are. You are too stupid to breathe.

>>53939535
>Ive proven it!!
then fuck off

>>53934859
Good thing there's not going to be any more rate increases.

>>53937843
>ISO20022 cryptocurrencies
algorand bros it has to be us right

>>53939546
That's what you need to do. Your nonsense was refuted.

>>53939561
Im sure its real in your head

>>53939582
You keep posting irrelevancies, which proves you have no clue what you're talking about.

>>53939588
Also see here:
>>53939021

>>53939608
Another irrelevancy.

>>53939621
>debt payments will become the largest budget item
Im sure, its all irrelevant, smoothbrain

>>53939648
That's because more is projected to be borrowed, fucknut.

spx bounced HARD at the 200d and is probably going to rape bears for the next little while at the very minimum

>>53939655
Of course, thats the only way to keep it afloat

>>53939555

>>53938781
They can't kick the can anymore ! Look how miserable the masses are from inflation that is only getting worse. It's FUBAR

>>53939693
The increased borrowing means more debt. That's the reason for the increased interest payments, not anything the Fed does to the short end.

>>53939789
So, you think the debt has doubled from last year to this one, you retarded nigger?

>>53939801
Where did I say that? The debt is growing faster than the interest payments.

>>53939834
I posted several sources that confirmed that higher interst rates drive up interest payments, you retarded nigger.

>>53939867
No, you have not.

>>53939874
LOOK AT THE FUCKING IMAGE; YOU RETARDED DUMBASS NIGGER

>>53939885
The image doesn't even mention the Fed Funds rate, you drooling mongoloid.

>>53939889
>the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate, a monetary policy tool used by the central bank to combat rising prices, seven times in that year. Those rate hikes, in addition to other factors, placed upward pressure on interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities. For example, interest rates on 3-month bills spiked from near zero in 2021 to 2.0 percent in 2022; rates on 10-year notes rose from an average of 1.4 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022.

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/02/interest-costs-on-the-national-debt-are-on-track-to-reach-a-record-high

>>53939910
That projection is based on a prediction of higher future long term interest rates, which has no basis in fact.

>>53939966
>Interest costs grew 35 percent last year
Thats not because the debt grew 35 percent last year, you retarded nigger

>>53934844
>>53934859
Isn't it stagflation if rates are going up, everyone's debt debtmaxxed up to their eyeballs, and everything is pumping thus making everything far more expensive?

>>53939978
Yes it is.

>>53940004
Now outright lying. Guess nothing is beneath you

>>53940010
Do the math retard.

>>53940052
>In fiscal year 2022, the federal deficit totaled nearly $1.4 trillion. That deficit was equal to 5.5 percent of GDP
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58592#:~:text=In%20fiscal%20year%202022%2C%20the,not%20affected%20by%20the%20pandemic.

Stupid nigger

>>53940074
Another irrelevancy.

>>53940082
It proves that the debt didnt grew by 35 percent, proving you a liar.

>>53939291
go to Costco and spend a few hundred bucks on beans, rice, canned goods, spices, coffee, vitamins, other cooking supplies, useful medical stuff

>>53939684
barring unforeseen events ("black swans")