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53911882 No.53911882 [Reply] [Original]

But house prices are collapsing, right bros?

The fact is there is enormous pent up demand for housing that is going to prevent it from falling. The stats you often see presented about house prices collapsing are misleading as fuck because they often show aggregates where the majority of the decline is in houses that were unaffordable to normal people in the first place.

If a 2 million dollar joke at the peak of the bubble has fallen to 1.5 million, that brings down the average listing price substantially, but the houses that were 400k at the peak of the bubble are still 400k…it’s just twice as expensive to borrow money now, so in fact, the monthly mortgage payment needed for 40-80th percentile income type people to own a home has gone UP.

There is enormous pent up demand for starter homes. More people are living at home than ever, increasing the availability of huge down payments or even cash buyers for homes. The starter home is gone, there has been no decline.

>> No.53911930

>>53911882
houses on average have increased 30% in price since the start of the pandemic
and prices are going to go down because of the massive 7% interest rate
these are the facts
no, I'm not gonna FOMO into a cardboard box
I'm going to just stack cash and wait, that is the intelligent thing to do

>> No.53911995

>>53911882
I just closed on a house yesterday, I'm getting the keys tomorrow. I never have to worry about rent going up again.
>YOUR TAXES WILL GO UP
yep and rents pay for tax increases too
>YOU HAVE TO PAY TO FIX THE HOUSE
yep and rents pay to fix the house to
>YOU CAN NEVER MOVE!!!
yep and I have a recession proof job in an area that I love

>> No.53912069

>>53911995
>t. FOMOtard

>> No.53912073

>>53911882
i could buy a home now but I'm waiting another year. prices will come down 10-20%. they're already slowly coming down.

>> No.53912088

>>53912073
same
buying now is just retarded
i mean are people seriously expecting another 30% jump in prices? lol

>> No.53912095

>>53912069
Rent is due fagit and it just went up another 20 bucks

>> No.53912097

>bought first house
>Valuation at close was 30% higher than the mortgage already
Shiiiieeeeeet

>> No.53912231

>>53912095
cool meme bro

>> No.53912249

>>53912097
cool, now look up "amortization schedule" and write us a report, due tomorrow :^)

>> No.53912285
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53912285

>>53912231
>>53912088
>>53912069
>>53911930
Hey everyone, this is my rentie and I'm sorry about his behavior. He's a little upset I tossed his funky pop collection last night while collecting this month's rent.

I will be raising his rent, and I just let some loud neighbors move in next door :)

>> No.53912325
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53912325

>>53911882
housing will never fall simply because there is too many desperate millenials and zoomers waiting for it to happen, and even besides that just think about it, you cannot print more land to build houses on, the jews know this, they found a way to corner the population into rentslavery by buying up all the houses thus forcing you to rent, they don't want you to own, they want you to be a rentslaves while they just collect paychecks doing nothing, the parasite needs a host, and you are the host, without hosts, on a desert island people like bill gates or george soros would be forced to roll up their sleeves and get to work, collect fire wood and hunt for food, but because the government through money printing and currency devaluation priced all of you ot of ever owning real estate, created the perfect environment for the jew parasite to thrive in, remember, you are the host and so will be your kids (if you can even have them, while renting out some cuck shed for 70% of your montly income with uncertain future

>> No.53912352

>>53912325
>housing will never fall simply because there is too many desperate millenials and zoomers waiting for it to happen
yeah because millenials and zoomers are definitely known for being super rich

>> No.53912401

>>53912352
>t. 30+ yo childless rentslave waiting for the housing crash for the last 10 years

>> No.53912406

>houses that were 400k at the peak of the bubble are still 400k
how is this a problem?
ameriburgers are paid 6 figures out of college to do pretend work
can easily own a house before age 30 on those inflated salaries
the real blackpill is in EU. homes routinely cost €300k and standard income in western europe is about €40k yearly, before taxes. normal people are basically priced out of home ownership without 30+ years mortgages

>> No.53912411

>>53912325
>by buying up all the houses
why do people believe this myth?
If this were true, the home ownership rate would be falling.
But it's been roughly 65% for many decades.

>> No.53912425

>>53912401
>obvious fact debunking what you wrote is presented
>you respond with baseless insults which are incorrect
yeah, i'm gonna go with waiting for real estate to bottom out before buying, thanks

>> No.53912448

>>53912406
ok, now that you're done making up numbers, you can go look up the real median salary for americans and get back to us

>> No.53912487

18 year cycles, look it up bagholder.

>> No.53912488
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53912488

>>53911882
>. The stats you often see presented about house prices collapsing are misleading as fuck because they often show aggregates where the majority of the decline is in houses that were unaffordable to normal people in the first place.
The cited stats use median prices, not average. This accounts for any outliers.
Housing won't collapse because there's no economic conditions forcing homeowners to foreclose, unlike 2008. But housing will correct. And it's already happening. Pic rel.
It starts with the builders. New homes have been sitting on the market for months because no one wants to pay 6% for the luxury of a new home any longer. Builders are cutting prices. Some are even going through the trouble of hiding public sales numbers so the value of other homes in their new developments don't crumble.
Falling prices on new homes will push the price of older homes down even if those homeowners refuse to list. Afterall, why pay $340k for a home built in 1980 when builders start charging $350k for one built in 2024?
The value of homes in my local area are relatively unchanged from a year ago, but I've noticed builders have slowed down. New developments are starting to look very bleak and new homes are sitting around for months.

>> No.53912494

>>53912352

3.5% down on an FHA loan. A team of two can make that in two months doing fucking UberEATS.

Tons of people with cash waiting on the sidelines. In 2008 only 6 million homes were foreclosed on, about 3-4% of the total homes on the market. You don't need all the millennials and zoomers to be in the right financial position to capitalize, you'd only need 10-20% to see an immediate correction.

All that assumes you don't have 1980s millennials who will come in and pick up another house just to cover for their children. I know how powerful buying my house at the bottom was for me. Given the chance, I'd do it again for each of my children and rent it out until they were old enough to move in.

>> No.53912517

>>53912488
the fact that these idiots don't even know the difference between average and median says it all

>> No.53912539

>>53912488

You would need to see a nigh 2008 style crash in prices just to "correct" down to pre-pandemic prices.

>> No.53912541

>>53912494
>3.5% down on an FHA loan.
3.5% down with 6.5% interest? you realize only idiots will do this, right
the fact that this is happening at all is what we call a "top signal"

>> No.53912633

>let the Jew shit in your soul
>reject family , true family, in favour of nuclear family

>let the Jew shit in your soul
>reject nuclear family in favour of composite family

>let the Jew shit in your soul
>reject composite family for single parenthood

>let the Jew shit in your soul
>reject single parenthood for cat/dog ownership
YOU ARE HERE
>let the Jew shit in your soul
>????

>> No.53912637

>>53912285
>funky pop
hello unmedicated schizophrenic who posts shirtless pics of him holding a leased ford mustang key fob. have you booked an appointment with dr. shekelstein yet?

>> No.53912639

>>53912541

Dude, I'm saying any major dip will get slurped. There's cash on the sidelines waiting. (And it might be waiting a while).

>> No.53912666

>>53912633

Reject cat/dog ownership for recreational drug use

>> No.53912684

>>53912639
ok so you're admitting that real estate is going down and buying now is not a good idea. i agree

>> No.53912702

>>53912541
>3.5% down with 6.5% interest? you realize only idiots will do this, right
This.
An acquaintance of mine recently bought the condo she's been renting with a 3.5% FHA loan for $100,000. She was paying $900/mo in rent.
>$70 principal
>$630 interest
>$100 PMI
>$220 HOA
>$130 taxes
>$60 insurance
From $900/mo to $1,210/mo. Plus all the risks and maintenance that come with being a homeowner.

>> No.53912723

>>53912073
Friends and family told me I was retarded back in 2020 and that I should wait. Thank god I didn’t listen to them I got a nice house and my mortgage is cheaper than my 1br apartment I was in

>> No.53912758
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53912758

>>53911882
leave shit hole liberal cities and join reality and civilization again

>> No.53912768

>>53912666
Thanks Satan, i was drawing a blank on the next step of your plan.

>> No.53912770

>>53912723
>my personal anecdote means buying a house at literally any time is a good idea
ok

>> No.53912891

>>53912770
Stay mad rentcuck

>> No.53912909

>>53911995
based anon. feels good owning my home and charging my gf rent to stay here.

>> No.53912920

>>53912891
why does me not buying right now make you angry
it's almost as if you are worried about your home equity going down

>> No.53912992

>>53912684

I never said it wouldn't dude. I just said that any correction would be met with a response. Maybe another 10-20% maximum, meaning you're still worse off than pre-pandemic.

Even if things improve, they'll never be good again.

>> No.53913030

>>53912992
maybe you're right, or maybe it goes down even further. people declaring 'rock hard bottom' are usually wrong.

>> No.53913046

>>53912702

6.5% of 96,500 is $6,500. That's $522.70 in interest.

If you're gonna make shit up, at least run the numbers first.

>> No.53913078

>>53913030

And people who insist the bottom is never in miss their opportunities.

>> No.53913110

>>53913046
lol anons getting exposed for exaggerating for doing what they always do

>> No.53913133

>>53913110

Eh, I fucked it up. 6,500 is at 100k. 6.5% of $96,500 is $6,272.50. Point stands, but it's still embarrassing for me.

>> No.53913436
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53913436

>>53913046
you think she is only going to pay $6500 in interest over the course of 30 years? please tell me that this is what you think

>> No.53913538
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53913538

>people that are priced out are going to keep prices from falling
There's little support above ~2016 prices at current rates
>b-but if everyone bagholds prices won't fall!!
Cope.
>muh inventory!
What happens to a low volume shitcoin with low circulating supply but high total supply when OGs start dumping?

>> No.53913610

>>53913436

No, that's annual, jackass. I was replying to someone giving bogus values for his price comparison of monthly rent vs monthly mortgage.

Why would you assume I meant for the duration of the loan? How retarded do you have to be to assume that this is even an idea that someone else would have?

>> No.53913648

>>53913610
well you've been pretty stupid so far
not understanding amortization schedules is right up your alley

>> No.53913825

>>53913648
the anon's post went above your head to dunce. lets get you back in your apartment son.

>> No.53913828

>>53913648

My dude, amortization schedules would mean even LESS interest paid per year as the time goes on.

He quoted $630 per month in interest on a $96,500 principal balance at 6.5%. Those numbers are verifiably incorrect.

>> No.53913867

>>53912325
>housing will never fall simply because you can just sell it to the chinese for straight USD as they flee their artificially propped-up mockery of a country
Fixed
millennials are worthless & have nothing to give so fuck em

>> No.53913907

>>53911882
>If a 2 million dollar joke at the peak of the bubble has fallen to 1.5 million, that brings down the average listing price substantially, but the houses that were 400k at the peak of the bubble are still 400k
Making it worse, houses that were 200-300 are all 350-450 now.

>> No.53913973
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53913973

>>53911882
I'm more or less convinced these threads are psyop to get people to give up on buying a house.

>> No.53913986

>>53913973
You dont "buy" a house
you get a mortgage which you spend your entire life paying off, then you die childless and it falls right back into the hands of banks
you pay for the delusion of progress

>> No.53914065

>>53913986
Right there's that. But I think they're is a incitive to get more people to rent vs own. Getting a supper majority of renters would be a pretty powerful voting block. A voting block that would vote for more government powers and taxes for social programs. I really think people need to push for affordable housing.

>> No.53914170

>>53913973
pretty sure it's just miserable incels trying to feel superior to others, not any kind of organized psyop

>> No.53914340

>>53912639
yeah, i'm just chilling as my house fund grows by $1k/week. my target is $100k down but there's plenty of wiggle room

>> No.53914400

>>53914340
gj fren
just keep saving
there will be very good opportunities soon enough

>> No.53914488

>>53914340
There is a lot of BS in these threads. The most important thing is to buy when you are ready. You are smart saving for a house you can afford. There are a lot of over leveraged house poor living paycheck to paycheck people out there. You don't want to be one of those people in a economic down turn.

>> No.53914490

>>53913986
Renting in the UK is more expensive than a mortgage, maybe it works out the same with property upkeep. But you'll own the house at the end of the 25yrs vs nothing renting.

Also, rent will increase every 12m, your mortgage payment will stay the same and due to inflation will be less in real terms. The property will also at least keep up with inflation in the long term.

Think about it.

>> No.53914518

>>53914400
>>53914488
thanks and checked. i'm trying to buy my grandparents' house, which i can afford, but the timeline is out of my control. worst case scenario, they die tomorrow and i have to borrow $12-24k interest-free from my mother to avoid (((private mortgage insurance)))

>> No.53914525

>>53914490
now talk about all the risks of home ownership
oh you dont wanna talk about those right
>The property will also at least keep up with inflation in the long term.
saying this like it's some rule that cannot be broken, lol

>> No.53914528

>>53911882
If people can't get loans they can't buy houses.
If loans were outlawed a median house would go for like $150,000

>> No.53914555

>>53912285
based

>> No.53914557

>>53914525
There are risks in anything - what are you referring to exactly? Re your second point, you would have to be VERY unlucky for your property to be worth less than what you paid for it in real terms after 25 years. Maybe if niggers move in the neighbourhood or something.

>> No.53914586

>>53914557
yeah i was just gonna say that niggers are the biggest risk. forget about hurricanes and blizzards. when you get a nigger infestation, it's over

>> No.53914620

>>53914557
i'm very skeptical that anyone buying a house in 2023 is going to see a return on investment

>>53914586
yes, and the government is very big on forcing communities to accept low-income housing facilities these days.

>> No.53914649
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53914649

>>53911882
It’s over>>53911930
>>53911995
>>53912069
>>53912073
>>53912088
>>53912095
>>53912097
>>53912231
>>53912249
>>53912285
>>53912325
>>53912352

>> No.53914664

>>53914620
yeah, that's the only thing that makes me hesitant to buy. what if niggers appear anywhere within an 8-block radius? it's a legitimate disaster and it's not just some wind and rain for a few days, it's a generational problem with absolutely caustic widespread effects.

>> No.53914671

>>53914649
looks like a mobile home
320k for a mobile home
yeah but this isn't a bubble bro kek

>> No.53914880

>>53913973
They're a psyop to get people to catch a falling knife

>> No.53914887

>>53914880
that sounds more logical

>> No.53915086

>>53914649
>>53914671
Its on 22 acres...
You're not paying $300k just for the double wide.

>> No.53915181

>>53914490
>Coof in his ID

>> No.53915276

>>53912285
If he’s not tipping you 20% you have a legal right to murder your rentoid

>> No.53915302
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53915302

>>53911882
>mfw I'm raising rent on my tenant by $100 soon and I know he's broke so he can't really move out

>> No.53915330

>>53911882
>More people are living at home than ever
Literally every single person I know lives at home. Where else do you live?
Are you trying to say there are less homeless people than in the past? Or that fewer people live in trailer parks these days?