/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53806874
hopefully!

Why does everyone talk about the 2-YR. I thought the 10-YR was the main character.

>>53806874
China refuses to buy Dollar bags.
Rip Dollar.

>>53806898
hopefully!

>>53806874
What is this? Bonds? Less people buying bonds is good or bad for dollar? I forgot

>>53806897
The 2yr rate is what the Fed is trying to influence when they raise or lower rates.They don’t have much influence on the longer part of the yield curve 10-30) Its the one with the highest correlation to US dollar value.

>>53806914

I think if no one wants the dollar, then fed will raise rates to make the dollar more appealing

>>53806914
Treasury bonds, and bad for the USD.

>>53806921
Thank you

>They don’t have much influence on the longer part of the yield curve 10-30
Why is that?

>>53806921
It's the other way around, the Fed follows what the 2 YR is doing, taking it's signals from the market. The two year tracks the Fed funds rate and typically leads the Fed funds rate.

>>53806897
Typically, when the two-year yield and the fed rate cross, it signals an upcoming policy inflection point. For instance, the lines crossed in early 2000, in 2006 and in late 2018; in every instance, a reversal in the federal funds rate followed. The phenomenon also tends to be directional: when the two-year yield crosses below the rate line, rates fall; when it crosses above, rates climb (as in late 2021). This last point is critical and bears repeating: the two-year yield crossing below the federal funds rate is a reliable signal of a coming change from tight to easy monetary policy.

why buy a white dollar today when by the time you come to collect it's become a brown dollar?

B00kmarked

I got 30k doing nothing which I won't need for a few years. It's currently catching dust in the bank. Should I just get some bonds? I don't want to take on too much risk and even 5% for a few years is better than the 0.1% I get now in the bank. Might now beat inflation but still. Also should I spread out a bit risk wise? There are some spicy bonds trading for peanuts (Turkey, Egypt and of course Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka). Obviously high risk shit but I can put a little in there.

How do these auctions work? Who sets the interest rate? I'm guessing no buyers because buyers want a higher interest rate?

>>53807445
I guess someone at the government, treasury ministry?

>>53807425
It's the jewish Jubilee year, when all debts must be "released", so you really don't want to be a creditor this year, especially making loans to the Zionist US gov, who is either going to do a theatrical public debt ceiling meme default to send the goyim spiraling OR going to kick inflation back into high gear. 5% is nothing.

>>53807490
5% is more than 0.1% though. Will just hold to maturity for short term bonds. Right now it is doing fuckall.

>>53807445
The coupon and face value are always fixed (by the treasury), and the bids at the auction go for over / under the face value. The yield is the annual coupon payment divided by the final sale price.

>>53807501
Right, but the sovereign debt issue will have a crisis moment before October 2023. So in either case you're looking at much higher than 5% after that, if you even want to lend to the US gov at all. Argentina bonds yield 40% for example because nobody wants them. So if you want yield, go for 6 month duration or less. If you go past 3 years you probably won't see much of that money back, in real terms.

>>53807425
also how would you go about buying those other countries' sovereign bonds (Turkey Egypt, etc.)?

>>53807522
Thanks anon. It really pisses me off that the money is doing nothing right now. My idea was to invest in 5k blocks over the next year. Spread out the risk a bit. Maxxing out yield is not my goal, just to mitigate inflation a bit for the coming years untill I buy a house. Thats also the reason I don't want to put it in the stock market - stocks will likely be low when house prices are low. I just want to put it to work where I don't have to actively manage it.

>>53807522
So the yield curve is distorting even more with short term yields high and long term yields low? Something going to go kaboom that makes the Fed reverse course?

>>53807549
I got a new broker now (Saxo) which offers a wide range of sovs on the secondary market.

Ukraine 9.75% 01 Nov 2030, USD trades at 18.53. I don't think they pay the coupon anymore but you could get 10k of debt for 2k (including all transaction costs). High risk obviously. Turkey 7.375% 05 Feb 2025. USD trades at like 98.

Some good options there in my opinion. I don't expect Turkey to default that fast.

>>53807589
Another one: Brazil 10.125% 15 May 2027, USD trading higher at 116. So yeah you lose a lot on the purchase already. Apparently the market thinks Brazil is a lot lower risk.

In comparison:

USA 6.25% 15 May 2030, USD 113 19/32.

It's not going to make you rich but its an honest steady return and depending on the risk you don't have to care about price decreases when you hold to maturity. If the CB's pivot somewhere next year or so and rates drop you could possibly sell them at a profit before maturity as well.

This will probably affect GameStock

>>53806976
interesting

There is even one for bitcoiners:

El Salvador 8.25% 10 Apr 2032, USD trading at 47.4. If you believe in bitcoin this is free money you'd say.

>>53807589
>Saxo
interesting. Are you from Denmark? I wonder if they would take amerishart clients. I've been looking for places to buy foreign sov bonds but FATCA tax reporting gets me turned away
>>53807621
Check out Uruguay, Colombia, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Any good offerings? Those would be my picks.

If US really does have a debt crisis (highest probability in its existence) then the best play for safe yield is non-USD denominated bonds - all i could find are ETFs like PCY and LEMB (yielding 7% ish)

>>53807522
Then why is the yield curve inverted? The inversion means the market expects deflation, because one wants to get ahold of those 5% yielding bonds in such a scenario. Is the market being retarded?

>>53807675
Hmmm, how do you buy this?

>>53807553
Actually if you have access to TreasuryDirect, you could get i-bonds. They yield 6.8% until April, then recalculate based on inflation, so if we get into an inflationary spiral at least you'll get some compensation. The unseen risk is that the treasury defines the inflation calculation. $10k max per tax year. Have to hold for 12 months.

so is this current bear theory?
dont know how likely it is
market makers seem to be able to artificially prop it all up no matter how bad things get

>>53807720
Nah I am Dutch. Probably works for all EU citizens. Don't know about Americans. My old broker (deGiro) had fuck all regarding bonds. Saxo is not cheap though (monthly fee and relatively high transaction costs). I also need to check out what the tax situation is.

I was checking out Colombia. Two options I found:

USD
10.375% 28 2033, USD trading at 109.5
8.375% 15 2027, USD trading at 101.5

No options for the local currency but they have a EUR one:

3.875% 22 Mar 2026 trading at 96.63

>>53807754
Don't you need to be a US citizen for that?

>>53807385
what stocks and assets will moon when that happens and the pivot starts? will we get a bitcoin bullrun again?

>>53807502
what licenses do you need to bid? i dont suppose we could troll them with an army of /biz/lets who shill bid up to ridiculous amounts ?

>>53807675
how to buy ES bonds?

>>53807581
>>53807743
Its a black swan type of thing. Everyone expects the debt ceiling meme to just pass away like it always has. But its the Nassim Taleb "turkey problem". We have a lot of factors this year that make a US sovereign debt crisis more likely:
>approaching $1T annual interest payments
>USD reserve currency status in jeopardy
>Jewish year 5783, Jubilee (look what happens in all the previous jubilees)
>The desire of globalist bankers to kill fiat and replace with CBDC
So yes, the market goyim are wrong, and the market has a great record of rugging as many people as possible over and over.

>>53807815
>get a broker account on a broker that offers these (like Saxo in my case)
>go to the bond tab
>search "Al Salvador"'
>Pick the one you want from the list

Et voila. You are now a creditor to Al Salvador. But there is a reason that shit is dirtcheap and yields are this high:

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/default-likely-in-el-salvador-but-only-after-the-2024-election/

>>53807820
Based. 100% agree. Do you think the upcoming Venus-Jupiter conjunction might be the catalyst?

>>53807812
Read about auction marketable securities here
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/buying-a-marketable-security/
Goys can only put in "non-competitive" bids. If you want to put in a competitive bid you have to go to a longnose and pay the bidding fee.

>>53807843
Kill yourself

>>53807760
>>53807720
Interactive broker is really the default broker for retailers, even more so in europe since finance is underdeveloped here and the competition of brokers is poor.

>>53807841
Yea, I wasn't going to list all the schizo reasons but fuck it, there are plenty
>US pluto return (Feb 2022, marking the beginning of the end - lasting until 2024).
>Glubb's "Fate of Empires", USA has reached the 250 year limit
>We're clearly deep into the "decadence" stage
>Deagel 2025 population forecasts
>Global Monetary regimes last around 50 years (our current started in the 1970s)
>Reserve currencies last about 70 years.
>4th turning
>4th industrial revolution
>agenda 2030
Venus-Jupiter will add something new in this same theme but I don't think it's the catalyst. I think they wait until September.

>>53807820
>>>Jewish year 5783, Jubilee (look what happens in all the previous jubilees)
yeah but that was in fall 2021, and ended in fall 2022

>>53807909
That was the Shemitah year 5782. The 7th of 7s, which makes the next year 5783 the Jubilee.

>>53807720
Alright you got me interested in Colombia now. Seems stable for a 10% yield short term bond trading near 100. Economy is doing well, relatively low inflation and good growth / lack of debt. Seems like a viable option to spend a part of my budget on.

Don't even think about buying anything related to Turkish currency. Another currency crisis is on the door. In fact, short it if you can.

>>53807907
They somehow managed to get retail this bullish again. Isn't this the perfect time to rug.
>We're clearly deep into the "decadence" stage
The similarities between Weimar end-stage (exactly 2 shemitas ago) and the current state is striking.

>>53807965
What about USD denoted debt? How are the foreign fx reserves of Turkey? I am willing to invest short term but I would not feel good about picking up a bond maturing in 2030 or even the second half of the 20's.

>>53807843
wtf is a non-competitive bid? that sounds like an oxymoron, isnt bidding by its definition, competitive?

>>53807965
How could it possibly get any worse?
>>53807967
>retail bullish
Wow, that's going to perma-rug a lot of boomers. Deagel will be right after all.. . And you're right, 1923 Jubilee was the exact year Weimar's hyperinflation kicked off. 1873 Jubilee: it was the Ottoman Empire debt crisis. 1973 Jubilee we had a pseudo-default (no more gold standard) and a stagflationary decade

>>53807589
I would not go for ukraine anon

>>53808011
checked and Yea i don't even bother. If you want to bankrupt the treasury just go with the i-bonds.

>>53808041
Fun fact about Ukraine:
unlike both the US and Russia, Ukraine does not have a private central bank. National Bank of Ukraine is 100% state owned, fully accountable to the public, has to report directly to the parliament, can't print more than a certain amount of grivna each year, has a balance sheet upper limit, and has to back ALL grivna in circulation with forex and gold.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bank_of_Ukraine

>>53808041
No certainly not. Could be fun to yolo in a k just so you can say to people you are supporting the Ukraine financially. I'd also actually have a stake in the war as it would be all gone if Russia wins. The funny thing would be that if Ukraine wins I probably pay of the debt they have with my with my own taxmoney.

>>53807990
>What about USD denoted debt?
I don't know the rates but if you are asking if they are safe, sure.
>How are the foreign fx reserves of Turkey?
On paper, they are fine, 128 billion USD at the moment. However, you have to trust an untrustable central bank, the net errors and omissions can't be unseen. They are way too high. Still, this country would starve its citizens before defaulting so it should be safe. But it's only safe because of its historical accountability, not because of the data.

>>53808031
The central bank is selling its foreign assets in order to suppress the TRY/USD rate for a long time but it can't go this way forever. Also, the bill for this earthquake is projected to be around 100B USD. We have been printing crazy amounts of TRY and it will just go crazier because of this. Erdogan also going full BRRRR mode because of the upcoming elections. Just take a look at TRY supply and LUNA will seem like BTC compared to it. One USD equals to 18.87 TRY at the moment and 25 is a conservative estimate by eoy.

>>53808096
guess we now know why it is being torn to pieces

>>53808120
10 percent and up to 12 if you want to gamble on the long term stability of Turkey. That is USD denoted.

>>53807834
nah many said they would default this very year and they didn't
besides by 2024 their btc bet will have paid off bigly

>>53807907
Take your meds you fucking schizo.

>>53808131
Seems good then, if you are not a crypto gambler with a fried brain like me. Financially speaking, Turkey is not some middle east shithole when it comes to foreigners, only is to its own citizens. Ignore the credit ratings. If shit goes down, Erdogan can always find money from the Arab or BRICS countries. After the elections, globohomo will pour money here as well so it should be fine.

>>53806914
If people aren't willing to pay money for a bond that is guaranteed to pay even more money later, that generally isn't good for the money in question, no.

>>53808227
It does. Might put 5k into Turkey, 5k into Colombia and rest in much safer US and EU bonds. All maturing between 2025 and 2028ish. Average yield should be around 6% then. Brokerage costs and shit deduct about 1% en then there is inflation. So yeah, at best you keep your value but if inflation stays high it is just a way of reducing losses when the only other option is keeping it in the bank.

>>53808153
I don't believe this. Al Salvador has many issues and bitcoin is only one of them. If I purely gamble on the bitcoin shit paying off I could just as well yolo it all on bitcoin itself.

>>53806911
KEK

>take this with a grain of salt
I do insurance work for a contractor on big jobs (300k - 4mm+). I have never seen this level of resistance to paying claims in my 15 years of doing this. The insurance companies are basically hiring people (engineers, consultants) to quite literally make shit up so they don't have to pay. I have one where they agree there is damage and even have a dollar amount, but they basically said "fuck you, we're not paying. You want money sue us". So that's what we did. 70% of my claims have now gone to an attorney because they just don't want to pay. All of these claims have gross and obvious violations of the Fair Claims Practices Act, which hopefully we can leverage to close them quickly so the carrier doesn't have to pay a 4x to 10x multiple for "bad faith" damages. I know an engineer that works as a PA in Georgia that had dinner with some big banking guy that basically said "everything is fucked, prepare to go legal on all your files because there is no money to pay". The really fucked thing is there is ALWAYS more money. Insurance companies are all reinsured through someone else, usually a gigantic fucking bank. Fuck, most of them ARE gigantic fucking banks as well (examples are USAA and State Farm). Rumors are floating around that every insurance company in Florida is insolvent because of the hurricane, which is even more fucked because these are state underwritten carriers. Do with this what you will.

>>53808096
whoa

>>53808312
Thanks for sharing. What's your ETA on the "hurricane"?

>>53808366
Unsure what you mean

>>53808384
When does it collapse? Are you also dealing with health insurers; How fucked are they considering the vax fallout?

>>53808312
This sounds like it's almost time for bank bail-ins. That would certainly be the sort of event to go right along with 2023.

>>53808394
I work Commerical Property Insurance claims. As far as I can tell the collapse started last year. I've been working about 15 million dollarydoos worth of files for almost a year now, some over a year. I hear this same thing from everyone I know that work all across the country

GME chads rise up!

>>53807425
JP Morgan has near 4% savings accounts or short term (3 month) CDs

>>53807886
lmao kek

>>53808443
I am European and we have severe financial repression here. I get 0.1 percent or something. Won't change anytime soon.

>>53806914
The bonds are auctioned off regularly. If people don't buy them, the government doesn't get money. If neither domestic buyers nor foreign buyers buy, then the Fed will have to buy (paying yourself out of your left pocket into the right, basically), which is then really the same as the government just printing money outright.
The US has been exporting its inflation abroad via the bond market for decades because foreigners kept buying the printed money due to the dollar being the world reserve currency. Should this scheme no longer work, inflation will start to increase dramatically, though it would not be a "done deal" that hyperinflation would ensue even then.

>>53808312
>there is ALWAYS more money. Insurance companies are all reinsured through someone else
Everyone was reinsured through AIG in 2007 too.

>>53808583
Buy gold real estate and ammo

>>53808624
>gold
>during hyperinflation

>>53807967
>100 years ago was 2 Shemitas ago
Shemitas are every 7 years though.

>>53808583
>the same as the government just printing money outright.
Wrong. The Fed is privately owned.
>>53808624
>Get rid of all your cash right before a liquidity crisis

>>53807820
>But its the Nassim Taleb "turkey problem"
the turkey analogy is a strawman. you know why the market is basically perma bull? because no one will believe the fed will allow another crash. and they wont.

>>53808624
>buying real state on a country about to collapse
highest IQ on /biz/ rn

>>53808312
Straight into the trash it goes you bait posting liar.

>>53807522
>the sovereign debt issue will have a crisis moment before October 2023
Post your puts post your shorts.

>>53808624
They can seize real estate pretty easily. They can seize gold too, but it's much more difficult. Destroying the market for it, however, is not. After the 1934 EO that confiscated (and then promptly revalued) gold, it was ruled by the courts that the President had plenary, i.e. unrestricted, power over money, therefore no legal protections applied whatsoever. The legal gold price, which is distinct from the market price, is set at ~$40 per ounce, so if Biden or some other president orders all gold seized tomorrow, you'll get the full $40 per ounce of gold you happen to have. And if you hold futures contracts, I imagine you'll get those $40 too.
Not that this legal shit matters; no government is above throwing every law out of the window in case of an emergency.

>>53808312
>Do with this what you will.
Easy : insuring myself from all this shitshow via PMs. Globohomo shills will kvetch to death at this, but we know why insurers are going under : vax genocide and handicap (rebranded long cooferino).
Just look at what did the 2 major actors in the sector, AXA and Allianz. Right after the vax in mid 2021, they sold a huge chunk of their life insurance contracts to third parties for pennies on the dollar. While usually they'd NEVER do that, life insurances is their bread and butter, it's free money scam.
Because they knew what would happen, and didn't want to be left holding the bag of millions of croaking clients.

>>53808962
Sauce

>>53806874
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5m75wFQiQ4c

This thread made me think. If a dollar is nothing but debt, then a jubilee wipes it away, right?

This is good for bitcoin

>>53808404
>bail-ins.
Reminds me I need to update my Molotov cocktail recipe.

>>53808312
I work in medical billing and I am seeing something similar. Bcbs and the like have always been fucking snakes but the resistance to paying has reached retarded levels.

>>53807394
upvoted

>>53806874
Don't care, still buying shitcoins

>>53809107
It's bad for those holding dollars or worse, a bond, which is an IOU for IOU's.

Wtf the market is pumping. I shorter with 50x leverage

>>53808366
>What's your ETA on the "hurricane"
Fucking pajeet
He's talking about the last hurricane that Florida had that resulted in Central Florida being absolutely flooded.

>>53807385
does this mean that buying a bunch of 2Y in anticipation of the price going to the moon isn't necessarily a retarded idea?

>>53809035
good vid

>>53806974
Check out Eurodollar University on youtube

>>53806976
Retarded pic and post.

>>53808654
He means 2 jubilees ago, 49*2

>>53808778
Dumbass, this is literally what I do for a living, so I think I would fucking know. Also, not all perils are the same in regards to payment. I work hail claims. If I was working 7 building fires, the money would move way faster. However, they would absolutely do their very best to underpay the loss.

>>53810935
There is a theory that WW1 was caused, not by Jews, but by life insurance companies. I say, why not both.

>>53810955
What's that theory? That they caused it on purpose?

>>53810968
Yes

>>53808443
I just took the 3 month cd deal yesterday
First decent rate I think I’ve ever seen from this cunt bank. I’d switch banks if I wasn’t so convinced that JPM is the only safe bank.

>>53810991
But for some hidden purpose, or simply because they wanted a lot of people dead?

>>53808096
they also signed a deal with Stellar Lumen

>>53810773
Jeff Snider has it wrong

>>53808615
Most of the big players are actually reinsured through other branches of themselves. State Farm is a good example. There are technically 5 or 6 different corporations under the State Farm umbrella. State Farm Fire and Casualty of Texas and State Farm Fire Insurance of Bloomington Illinois are two totally separate entities as far as underwriting is concerned. Lloyd's of London seems to be one of their reinsurance entities. Usually reinsurance is only triggered in huge property loss events like the hailstorms in Southern Colorado in 2018 and the hurricane in Florida. I have no idea who reinsures Citizens/Florida Peninsula for hurricanes other than the state, but I imagine there is some sort of financial entity to which they pass the losses up the chain. FM Global is another monster provider of reinsurance that few people even know about. Whenever you see construction materials that are FM rated, it's because Factory Mutual Global provides material standards over and above IBC and ASTM for insurance underwriting purposes. We do warranty jobs for Carlisle Syntec exclusively, and all their 25-30 year NDLs are underwritten by FM (the manufacturer pulls an insurance policy specifically related to the roofing assembly on the building)

>>53811022
Both I suppose. Though on the face of it, mass death in war would mean a lot of claims. But it probably depends on the kind of claim.

>>53811048
He's not right about everything but he's right about the Fed being gay shadow-puppets

>>53806976
what do they gonna do now?

>>53810955
The fact that this is not market specific is very worrying to me. Certain markets have always sucked to work claims because of the frequency of large claim events (big fucking hailstorm) or because it is just a busy market (Central Indiana because there a billion roofers and it hails just enough to get them out trying to get work). The fact that I am hearing this from everyone I know across the country is super fucked. We are working claims in Florida for commerical buildings that still don't have a first check from Ian last year. That is unheard of, especially since there are legal time limits set by the state to provide some sort of resolution and payment. They stack up engineers and consultants that are in their pocket to either deny or stall the process for months on end to avoid paying.

>>53811166
This makes sense because insurance is born after the year called 1500, for the most part. Very old scams are all unraveling at once.

>>53807796
everything :^)

>>53808111
>if Ukraine wins
They ain't going to win, that's a pretty safe bet.

I mean the media keeps saying one thing but checkout the reality of the situation. The Ukraines being pulverised and they haven't made a dint on Russia, and that Russia running
>easy mode
I.e. they weren't indiscriminately shooting at things and were giving people a chance to leave.

There's absolutely no way putin will stop now because he'd look like a total failure. As far as I heard last, they've got something like another 2,000 tanks queued up to go.

Putin made a state announcement about it yesterday that you can get direct on the kremlin website. The last time he did that was immediately as they began running the first set in.

>>53808234
>If people aren't willing to pay money for a bond that is guaranteed to pay even more money later, that generally isn't good for the money in question, no.
>guaranteed
May have hit the head of the problem nail there

>>53811191
Insurance is the canary in the coal mine for me. We always joke that our job is basically apocalypse proof because the last companies standing will be banks and insurance companies, and that if they ever stop paying everything is already totally fucked. Joke might be on me now, I guess.

>>53811567
Insurance does lots of good things but ultimately they didn't want to take the loss lol. I don't think it will survive the century in anything like its current form.

>>53811279
That is the crux of the insurance issue I'm having. There is no safe place to keep their money anymore to hedge losses. As I understand it, they use mostly basic bitch corporate, municipal, and treasury bonds to hedge against future claim payments.
Also, fun fact: part of your premium you pay for insurance actually goes towards the insurance companies legal defense should you try and sue them. This is included on your premium rate sheet, which you will never ever fucking see.

>>53811589
They are ALL cocksucking faggots, anon. They might not suck all the cocks all the time, but 100% they all have or will suck a cock. Get a big hailstorm in a major city and it's time to break out the chapstick, because they are comin' to suck all the cocks.

>>53809468
You added nothing of value to this thread.

>>53811717
It made sense up until the 20th century. Spreading risk over a broader base helps economies thrive. But once insurance owned all major western governments, it wasn't really insurance anymore.

Redpill me on AIG and 2008.

>>53806874
oH NO... muh gems are dumpeeeen

>>53808778
It's a high effort larp if it's a larp.

Relax, no one wants to buy 2 year bonds at a measly minus 5% because by then the markets will be mooned well above such a pitiful yield.

>>53812850
Not a larp, fren. Pic related is something I just wrote this up for my engineer to use for a claim where some idiot engineer hired by The Hartford is trying to literally make shit up to see if we are too dumb to read.
>t. can read very well

>>53811092
No he's not. It's precisely because he fails to see this whole eurodollar shitshow is Fed-enabled that his bond portfolio is down the shitter. The guys has it all backward like most economists.

>>53808312
cool post
everything is Big Fucked

>>53808312
>>53808423
>>53811077
>>53811166
>>53811567
>>53811625
>>53813262
Based informed-effortulposter. I'm a retard, but I have been hearing people talk about (on the internet, but also in working with property developers) how insurances of all kinds are hiking rates like 20-40%. Large owner mentioned something offhand about how his insurance is up 35% and this seems atypical but was told it's industry-wide, then came back saying he had shopped around and that seemed to be basically true. Unrelated but someone online said about how insurance companies are basically giant banks, premiums are a very minor part of the revenue because with all the cash they need to keep onhand for payouts, most of their money comes from investing. With that slumping the losses get passed on to the customers' premiums and that's why we're seeing that. "It's Inflation!" and "Catalytic converter theft payouts" just being a canard. Maybe this is obvious to many but I'm uneducated and was hanging drywall for a living 12 months ago.

Thank you for the information, but my question is this: How do I profit from this?

>>53806874
Yellen is the worst we've ever had.

>>53808096
i'm sure there's no corruption lol

>>53813358
I don't give a shit about his portfolio and I would never buy fucking bonds. But he is right that the Fed has zero power of any kind, beyond the illusory power of a homeless man standing on the corner, screaming about bats.

>>53813262
nice use of chatGPT

>>53813531
In cases of systemic collapse, profit is obtained by betting correctly on what system will replace the dead one, and (usually) being a part of its new construction.

>>53813647
>I don't give a shit about his portfolio and I would never buy fucking bonds.
You should give a shit, because that's his hypothesis being tested in real life.

>But he is right that the Fed has zero power of any kind
Like Jeff, you obviously have never worked at a primary dealer and go by hearsay and theoretical niceties you picked up on YT. He already gave himself away years ago when he dismissed the housing elephant in the room. I speak from trenches and anybody who can't make money off their understanding of the market is a clown.

>>53811567
why is insurance a canary in the mine?

>>53813647
>I don't give a shit about his portfolio and I would never buy fucking bonds.
You should give a shit, because that's his hypothesis being tested in real life.
>But he is right that the Fed has zero power of any kind
Like Jeff, you obviously have never worked at a primary dealer and go by hearsay and theoretical niceties you picked up on YT. He already gave himself away years ago when he dismissed the housing elephant in the room. I speak from the trenches and anybody who can't make money off their "understanding" of the market is a clown.

>>53814104
If bank reserves are money, why do they have zero influence on money velocity or money supply? As you say, primary dealers have infinitely more power than the "Federal Reserve," since they deal in dollars, not "bank reserves."

>>53806897
treasury has a huge short term debt

>>53814163
reserve requirements are 0 now

>>53808366
he meant there was a literal hurricane that cost insurance companies money

>>53814212
> The sun moves east to west across the sky
> A tranny gets up in the morning and follows it, running west
Federal Reserve cultists:
"The tranny is moving the sun"

>>53813652
I wish I could task ChatGPT doing all this code related bullshit

>>53813531
>How do I profit from this
Long the attorney my company uses to sue these faggots into paying

>>53814163
That's a straw man Jeff loves to demolish and unfortunately helps mislead his viewers. He won't tell you anything about how the Fed is single-handedly propping up the housing market by providing revolving lines of credit to Freddie Mac and other MBS dealers. If you shut down the Fed tomorrow it's not just mass foreclosures and underwriter insolvencies you'd have to worry about but full blown riots from the working class.

>>53814861
Again, that would effectively be Eurodollars. Freddie Mac is not borrowing bank reserves.

>>53808312

Ty fren for effort posting. I see in my own life only one section of the coming shitpocalypse, and I’m always trying to find more tidbits of what’s happening and why it could be happening. Did you ask your banker friend what the best way forward was?

How can middle income people like myself survive? I’m not so caring about thriving even, but just surviving.

>>53806976
The fed doesn't just randomly adjust the fed fund rate. They say ahead of time what they're planning.

>>53808312
>Rumors are floating around that every insurance company in Florida is insolvent because of the hurricane, which is even more fucked because these are state underwritten carriers. Do with this what you will.
My boss has a pretty expensive house in Florida and his insurance renewal was $70k so he just paid off the home and doesn't have property insurance now.

>>53815914
They wave their hands all quarter, then look at the data just like you and me. The difference between them and us is that they LARP as 'controllers.'

>>53808526
This is wrong. You are being lazy, we can get 3-4% fairly easy
>t. Cheesehead

>>53807967
>>53808031
it's not retail accumulating this crab market
pro vs pubindex shows professional buying. not sure if that's better or worse but that means the cycle is drawn out and no collapse till next year at the very earliest

>>53808312
literally me and debt collectors

no one has dollars available
doesn't that mean milkshake part 2

>>53806941
lol
...
lmao

>>53816719
Yeah, how is this sustainable?
Broken and shifting supply chains are responsible for a great deal of inflation, and I'm sure the bankers know this. So what's the real reason why the Fed is tightening? Is it to keep oil prices down?

>>53817252
It's to rug everyone lmao

>>53808662
>and they wont
They've got you right where they want you hahahahaha

>>53806874
Two weeks

>>53811875
>AIG

sold too many swaps(insurance on morgage backed securities) to too many players around the world,effectively becoming a single point of failure to the global economy.

The american goverment took people money to bail them out or else the planet would go bankrupt and the jews would get poor.

>>53817522
No it's not they wouldn't have raised rates if they knew they couldn't afford it. The kikes want their interest payments they were making nothing before at 0%