/biz/ - Business & Finance

Time to party like it's 1929.

>>53336946
jerome powell got covid...bullish? Sounds like they got sick of his shit and planted a bug on him KE

layoffs don't matter

I'm gonna fight the Fed.

I don't care that Jerome's getting over COVID. If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.

>>53336960
Layoffs are actually bullish for stocks but won’t actually start making an impact until they affect companies outside of tech and crypto

Sautéed mumu micro balls dipped in window jumpers blood.
https://youtu.be/nbqguu8NsM4

Those XD posters sure seemed happy.

>>53336962
>literally everyone already knows
oh everyone knows huh??
> But oh, it's actually not going to go up when they cut rates now?
They're not cutting rates they have given this forward guidance over, and over, and over and over, and still you mumus do not get it
they cannot cut rates - if they cut rates, the dollar collapses, commodities spike higher, inflation returns - if they cut rates, it entrenches inflation expectations higher, which forces the second round of "chemo" to be that much worse, when the economy is in an even worse state
>people who were getting fat salaries at companies like Amazon and Microsoft
you're a fucking retard. everyone is hurting! everyone is going into debt. look at the fucking numbers. just google
>americans credit card debt groceries
these mass layoffs affect the entire economy, and they are just beginning - they will only ramp up
more than a 1/3 of americans cannot afford to pay their electric bill for fucks sake
how do you not see that the emperor has no clothes
stop drinking the fucking kool-aid - the emperor has no clothes!

>>53337017
you must listen to a lot of peter schiff. dollar is not going to collapse lmfao. nowhere near those levels.

>>53337017
whats funny is you believe the same propaganda numbers from the elite that you bitch about.

Bear is king

>>53337017
The biggest cup and handle in market history will be dxy. Get fucked faggot.

>>53337017
>more than a 1/3 of Americans cannot afford to pay their electric bill for fucks sake
you actually fucking believe this.
you ACTUALLY believe this.
lmfao

>>53337037
we are talking about the relative strength of the dollar.. if the US cuts interest rates, the relative strength of the dollar falls.. commodities are traded in dollars.. this drives up demand from foreign economies for commodities.. this drives up the price of commodities, especially oil (think "petrodollars") -- this drives up inflation
we are already seeing this dynamic over the past month, as DXY has fallen, commodities have sharply gone up
gasoline RBOB was at $2.07 one month ago - earlier today it hit $2.57 - this is a 24% increase in the price of gas in one month - this was artificially suppressed by the SPR release, in order to win the midterms

>>53337017
>if they cut rates, the dollar collapses
Explain the mechanism that would make that happen and how the Fed and other US policy makers couldn't just rewrite the rules overnight
>everyone is hurting! everyone is going into debt
Sorry you're hurting and/or in debt man but you don't have to project it onto other people
>muh layoffs
Seriously man get over it, the trend overtime is that less and less employees are actually needed to produce more and more. It's inevitable.
>more than a 1/3 of americans cannot afford to pay their electric bill
Probably can find newspaper articles about this back into at least the 80s

>>53337042
who's bitching about the elite? what the fuck are you talking about
yes the numbers are cooked, but they're cooked, and they still dogshit, even with the cooking, the numbers are still fucking terrible
>but the worse the data is ... blah blah blah
no you fucking retards, bad news is bad news! it means less growth! less growth is bearish! god
it's like explaining that the Earth is round to humans 10,000 years ago

>>53337037
>dollar is not going to collapse
Anyone claiming collapse is retarded but it could lose some status as the reserve currency if opec moves away from using the petrol dollar

>>53337060
interesting. i would say money is fluctuating out of the market and into commodities. i wouldn't necessarily blame inflation.

>bad news is bad news!
This phrase has swept across the financial forums so quickly it feels entirely manufactured

>>53337080
i think we found our issue. you correlate economic health with the markets. im not disagreeing the economy is terrible. but it literally has no sway on the market anymore. don't you understand its a fucking casino and it will do what the fed wants it to do.

>>53337065
>Explain the mechanism that would make that happen and how the Fed and other US policy makers couldn't just rewrite the rules overnight
Nobody wants dollars anymore because runaway inflation is shitting them into worthlessness, the end. Unless US policy makers force dollar price controls on the rest of the world at nuke point it will be ogre. And that's why there will be no pivot.

>>53337107
>imagine going to a financial forum in current year
https://youtu.be/EaNgb5NZ3z8

>>53337065
>if they cut rates, the dollar collapses
Explain the mechanism that would make that happen
read >>53337060
google "relationship between interest rates and currencies" --- to put it simply, the higher interest rates are, the more attractive that nations bonds are - in order to buy their bonds you need to buy the currency of that country. you sell your currency and buy dollars to buy US bonds --- conversely, if they cut rates, people will sell US bonds, they sell US bonds, take the dollars from the sale and sell the dollars and buy their native currency - as interest rates fall, the currency falls
>Sorry you're hurting and/or in debt man but you don't have to project it onto other people
anon, I have a net worth of $1.6M with extended family networth in the $20M range. I will be fine. the average person, the average person in /smg/ will not. the average person right now is suffering. think of people on fixed income who are spending all time high on groceries, barely making ends meet. the savings rate is at zero, with credit cards at 19% interest.
>less and less employees
less and less employees means less growth, it means consumption. 70% of the economy is consumption. everyone who is being laid off is not consuming. this has ripple effects throughout the economy. because I get laid off, I now no longer employ my gardener, who no longer can afford the tutor for his daughter --- big chain that is now broken

>>53337107
i've been saying this would happen for awhile. You can't simultaneously argue that the bear market is over and that bad news is good news.

fact is, you cant price in what the effects of the rates will be. they cant perfectly guess how the consumer will react, they cant predict how long the effect will take, or what earnings will be. the market will consume the results as it comes and then react.

>>53337112
>don't you understand its a fucking casino and it will do what the fed wants it to do.
this is what you mumus do not fucking understand
the Fed wants the market to move lower, the Fed wants unemployment to go up to natural, "maximum employment" levels which they estimate around 5%
when the market is higher, financial conditions loosen - they have literally loosened to a huge degree since this bear market rally began. they don't want this.
a higher market causes a "wealth effect" - this wealth effect causes people to feel that they are doing well since their stocks are up, so they buy more, spend more, which drives inflation up. the higher the market moves, the more confident people feel and the more frivolously they spend driving up inflation - the Fed does not want this.
the Fed has been completely transparent on both of these points for years and years

>they can't cut rates and QE ever again because inflation will go back to 9% and the dollar will die!!!
lol, bears are retarded

>>53337128
>The value of US bonds has to do with the federal funds rate and not the implication that your money is backed up by the most powerful country on the planet
ok

>>53337121
>Unless US policy makers force dollar price controls on the rest of the world at nuke point
Blows my mind when people act like this hasn't been the way of the world since the 50s

I forgot about opex and fomc.

>>53337135
No, good news is good news now too. That's why everything is going to blow past the 200 dma at the next halfway bullish headline.

I hope the stock market crashes soon so I can put my cash into JEPI and receive the soon-to-be 12% dividend yield

>>53337184
its going to be fucking glorious. every bull run starts off this way. "but but no way we go up"

the market is months ahead pricing in.

>>53337197
Buy JEPI after the big crash so you can get 12% dividend and no rebound upside (due to covered calls/swaps).
Genius.

>>53337175
opex will be crab. too many calls and puts for 400. FOMC isnt until february?

>>53337207
Post nose.

YINN bros I think we're back

>>53337223
bers every bull run "this time its different"

>>53337175
Technically opex is every day now. Isn't modern trading fun?

>>53337175
FOMC is next month so it's not a factor yet. Honestly I'm still part of the 380 crab train because /smg/ sentiment is 50/50

>>53337146
the average person has no idea what the stock market even is. you serious?

>>53337184
so the good news is goldman sachs just had the worst earnings miss in 10 years. some other good news is the fed is planning on a terminal rate of 450 bps to make sure inflation doesn't come roaring back.

>>53337240
All the big single-stock options are still monthly or quarterly expiry.

>>53336960
I'm buying a MSFT put. My XOM put is doing well on its first day, little xommie aww.

>>53337240
Derivatives aren't exactly derivative. This is bullshit.

>>53337271
bullish as fuck. markets have priced in most of that.
any slight bullish news and we rally. just the way it is. sorry pessimists. we'll probably rally 2% when jpow gets over his cold.

>>53337289
beer producer STZ now has 649 PE after everyone stopped buying beer. It's almost the same price as when the earnings came out. This must be bullish too.

>>53337156
they can't for a long time

>>53337156
They cut rates wage demand will run wild again. Wages (generally) are beating inflation across the board currently.

>>53337226
Just put all my money into FCX weeklies.

>>53337233
Wasted digits.
https://youtu.be/gM4xZy39kNE

>>53337223
>nose
Is SPY going to keep going down or should I buy calls

>>53337274
True, but consider that those now have their personal leveraged ETFs like MSFU or NKEL

>>53337320
the day an economic crisis happens rates will be massively cut and the money printers will be turned back on
jerome has already told us this.
invest accordingly.

>>53337313
why the fuck would i care about a bunch of faggots making beer in there basement.

>>53337017
>>53337060
>>53337128
>>53337146
mumus I am genuinely just trying to help you
I do not give a shit about the "I was right" "No I was right" dichotomy between bobos and mumus
/smg/ is about making money, hiveminding research, and shitposting - 'we're all going to make it'
please do not fall for the "the worse the economic news gets, the more bullish it is, as it means the Fed will ease policy sooner!" narrative that has been forced down your throat
a recession is bearish. banks putting aside $4 billion for expected credit losses is bearish - who knows better than the banks the credit risk and financial health of their customers? 11 year record earnings misses are bearish.
valuations of stocks are based upon earnings. earnings will fall as the recession gets worse. the economy is rapidly deteriorating, each economic data point is worse than the last. if you do not believe me, look at: PMI, ISM, retail sales, home sales, mortgage activity, delinquencies, defaults
the consumer is tapped out - people no longer have their covid savings, they are paying 19% interest on their credit cards, so that they can afford to buy groceries and gas. if people cannot afford to make their basic ends meet, they cannot afford to spend money on goods and services that your corporation that you're investing in is selling
I do not want to see over the next month people in /smg/ going 'you lied to me /smg/! the market is crashing!'
we warned you, are warning you, trying to get you to realize the reality of the situation, trying to prevent you from suffering catastrophic losses - we are seeing worse economic data than we did during 08-09 crisis, and this time, we don't have the ability to unleash more than a decades worth of money creation
inflation is not defeated, the terminal rate has not been reached, interest will rates will stay higher for longer than the market expects - a pivot does not help corporate profits; monetary policy lags by 12 months!
wake up mumu. wake up!

>>53337365
I would rather that I piss off some people here, and wake them up from their delusional mumu slumber than people here in /smg/ lose a fuck ton of money
I will take your slings and arrows, if it means saving you money and preventing you from buying the local top
>they hated him for he spoke the truth

>>53337365
so july spy 350 puts? yolo my 401k full port?

FOR GODS SAKE MUMU I DO IT BECAUSE I LOVE YOU
WAKE UP MUMU WAKE UP

>futures

>>53337338
You do you bby gurl, ill support you either way.

>>53337365
Dude this is so many mainstream bearish talking points crammed into one post it feels like an AI wrote it

>>53336958
Covid is a meme, keep dreaming

>>53337443
lold

>>53337365
>I do not want to see over the next month people in /smg/ going 'you lied to me /smg/! the market is crashing!'
These are mostly shitposts though. The people with genuine losses will own up to them or disappear.

Friendly reminder to pay your taxes before (((they))) ask you to.

I'm done with meme stocks. I'm selling everything tomorrow and rebalancing to this

60% FSKAX
20% FTIHX
20% FISVX

>>53337156
They shouldn't desu, it's the reason we have all this bullshit inflation

>>53337425
Go eat your sketti n' butter

>>53337484
Only thing i want to eat is your bloody bussy, mumutard.

>>53337484

>>53337365
Your position is that the Fed cannot lower interest rates because inflation would take off again? Wouldn't the Fed rather risk inflation taking off than sending the economy into a full-blown recession? If what you say is true, why wouldn't the Fed lower rates?

>>53337543
i dont agree with his boomer doomer bullshit.
but without a currency there is no economy.

>>53337543
>Wouldn't the Fed rather risk inflation taking off than sending the economy into a full-blown recession?
They literally said over and over that it make take a recession to kill inflation once and for all.

I think the anon from last thread trying to argue that China doesn't want Taiwan was the most retarded thing I've seen all year.

It's mostly bank earnings this week, but there's NFLX on Thursday. What's that going to look like?

>>53337459

>>53337543
inflation is worse than a recession.

>>53337504
Saved.
I'm neither bobo nor mumu. Why not take advantage of making money in more than one direction

>>53337543
Have you not been listening to a single word that JPOW is saying?

OC made for you /smg/
it does not get more simple than pic related
please post this in reply to "muh pivot" delusional mumus

>>53337543
I dunno what the US is actually going to do, but one of the reasons they keep a hold on the world is the dollar since everyone needs to pay for commodities in dollars. By choosing inflation over a recession, they risk the dollar becoming undesirable to everybody else and switching over to a different reserve currency

>>53337602
as long as the number goes in the right direction all of that is irrelevant

I think AMZN will dump tomorrow, people do NOT like it when non-profit orgs get fucked with

https://twitter.com/Tim3L0rd78/status/1615860865374322689

>>53337602
Haha that's not why I hate you

I just hope the investment bankers are having fun. :)

>>53337623
Nonprofits are fucking scams.

>>53337602
We aren't in a recession yet. The SPX is not even in a technical bear market. Many non-tech stocks are at or near ATH. The stock market was literally so overvalued that a downturn in tech stocks made the market decline ~30% to the trough.

>>53337615
Bro no one is going to switch to a different reserve currency, at least not in our lifetimes

>>53337557
Baggie's retarded, yes

>>53337640
>The SPX is not even in a technical bear market.
It is in real terms. What, you think equities are immune from ~15% inflation?

>>53337623
no one cares

>>53337640
>We aren't in a recession yet.
Yes we are. We are in a recession both in the official definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as well as in all metrics of economic activity
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-176
>The SPX is not even
>Many non-tech stocks are at or near ATH
Lmao. This is bearish! This is how much room shit has to yet to fall - we are still very overvalued

>>53337665
inflation is -0.1%

>>53337651
I agree with you 99% but since we live in clown world there is the 1% chance the US is going to choose hyperinflating the dollar

recovering from my loss with a small gain, and missing out on a bigger gain reminds me of UTZ and LCID. fun times were had, the subtle stress those stocks induced upon me and the rants i went on while at work, and this old feeling of relief as i "barely recovered". i'm not a man of conviction, i'm probably going to try and short the market some more every now and then until october. still going to DCA into JEPI.

>>53337665
Reminder:

>>53337672
On a monthly basis, according to the government's cherry-picked stats.

What was the actual, general change in prices between, say, October 2021 and October 2022?

People are so not used to an inflationary environment that we benchmark things like "X% decline/rise in a year = bear/bull market" while waving away 1-2% inflation.

>>53337670
How are you getting negative GDP growth?

None of those stocks are going to tank. The economy is still strong, this is just a correction in tech. Now is the time to buy tech.

>>53337602
you realize if they came out and did a .25 hike instead of .5 we could see a 2-3% rally that same day. im confused.

>>53337672
core inflation is +.5% monthly currently with no moderation.

>>53337694
>People start having to look up fucking rho in their options greeks tables.

>>53337637
>>53337667
you be surprised how big a difference it made for dog shelters, even $5k in a fmonths made a huge deal for them

>>53337615
>>53337564
>>53337588
>>53337555
>>53337556
But how could inflation be worse? People are saving a record low amount of money. The FFR has skyrocketed over the last year and we're getting sign after sign of a slowing economy. The Fed rarely gets soft landings right; why is it likely that they will this time?

>>53337672
Gas is up 15% since that data point.

>>53337717
Maybe they ought to sell more dogs.

>>53337665
oh god not this "real terms" bullshit. whats next you gonna tell me your boomer rocks are worth 5x what they are in real terms?

>>53337696
there's no "real" guy out there making sure you don't get shafted by inflation even though you held stocks. He's not going to pump your bags 1 million% to compensate.
stocks are valued according to future earnings. and those are going down.

"real" rates, and "real" returns are only useful for monitoring relative performance. they don't have predictive value.

>>53337602
top kek, well done fren

>>53337704
>The economy is still strong
on the surface it appears strong - wow record jobs!! but when you pull back the curtain, you see that it is actually being held together with chewing gum and dental floss
they overestimated jobs by 1 million in order to win the midterms (google it if you don't believe me: "Fed overestimate jobs 1 million")
dig into the data yourself - when a recession kicks off, as it has, it snowballs and rapidly deteriorates

>>53337443
This might be the single most retarded post I have seen on this site. Yes, there have been more incorrect posts, posts that are more retarded in a funny way, like the infamous bingus poster, but in terms of pure unrestrained midwit retardation, just undeserved self assurance capped off with a pointless reference to current thing, this is the gold medal biz post. In five years it will make grown men weep for humanity.

>>53337696
news flash, government cherry picked stats is all that matters! thats what im trying to tell you people.

>>53337729
No, all I'm saying a 20% weakening of equities looks shows up as a 19% lower number during normal times. And a 5-10% lower number during our current wave of inflation.

>>53337712
I don't know what greeks are so idc

>>53337718
literally none of that matters dude. its just crazy to me you can't see it.

>>53337740
The market also falsely believes they can throw a tantrum and force the feds hand. The Fed knows that if they give in now and stop QT or reduce the rates the market will blow off. The labour market is still tight enough to squeeze wages monthly to offset core inflation that is sticky.

>>53337718
For the record, I don't believe in a soft landing, and my whole argument is rooted in geopolitics. The US is going to do anything to stay as the top dog of the world and that includes a recession.

>>53337740
I know they overestimated jobs but there's no evidence of a recession except for the yield curve and PMIs, the former is irrelevant and the latter is garbage data and meaningless. Inflation is already negative MoM. Everything points towards soft landing and major gains for non-tech stocks.

>>53337733
>b-b-but muh earnings
Already priced in last October. Investors have looked past that already. Up only from here. Markets bottom before earnings bottom.

>>53337755
that shouldn't be news to anyone here, its why holding stocks throughout the 1970s was better than selling. but in the 70s they cut rates rapidly which led the inflation resurgence.
just wait until they actually cut.
>>53337802
earnings come out more than once a year in October

>>53337733
That's conflating a few things. First, 0% interest rates rather than 4% interest rates boosts useless ARKKshit to infinity P/E through DCF. That reverses with nothing more than Fed hikes/bond rates rising.

Second, the margins that feed into those P/Es. All else equal, companies have PPI jump, then they pass along into CPI. If they're slow about it, their margins will compress. Instead of earning 10% they'll earn 8% or whatever.

Lastly is the part that I'm reminding everyone of - the absolute effects. If shitco did $100 of business in 2021 then $115 in 2022, their business was "flat". And despite their margins getting squeezed from 10% to 8%, you'd only see their profit decline from $10 to $9.2.

Margins heemed, revenue up, but earnings didn't decline that much? Yup, inflationary bear market.

>>53337718
>People are saving a record low amount of money.
That isnt a sign of inflation too?

>>53337792
>I know they overestimated jobs but there's no evidence of a recession except for the yield curve and PMIs, the former is irrelevant and the latter is garbage data and meaningless. Inflation is already negative MoM. Everything points towards soft landing and major gains for non-tech stocks.

hes right you know. all that matters is we ARE moving in the right direction and the market prices in the future.

>>53337107
Bad news is bad news in high economy, bad news is good news in low inflation

>>53337636
I am! Thank you tranime friend.

>>53337814
The bottom in earnings (upcoming) was priced in in October (when SPX got near 3500). Now we're pricing in the recovery.

>>53337744
A furniture company or oil services firm can't CPI adjust their earnings reports. Accountants tend to bitch about that sort of thing as "non-GAAP".

>>53337792
>there's no evidence of a recession
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256
https://socketsite.com/archives/2023/01/purchase-mortgage-activity-drops-to-a-9-year-low.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/goldman-sachs-fourth-quarter-results-are-coming-what-the-street-expects.html
https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-cut-10000-jobs-tech-layoffs-intensify-2023-01-18/
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-lay-off-over-17000-workers-wsj-2023-01-04/

>>53337821
so you're saying inflation is literally skewing all data points?

>>53336946
what's with the reddit image?

>>53337834
it's a nice attempt but you're only fooling yourself with an overly simplistic view

>>53337863
You seem like you'd enjoy https://dailyjobcuts.com/

>>53337864
I'm saying be careful claiming "a real bear market hasn't started yet because we haven't dropped X%". This isn't, like, the early 90's or the 2000's where inflation is approximately 0% between the start and the end of the bear market.

>>53337863
>retail sales
This is a blip, anon.
>mortgage activity down
Who cares?
>goldman earnings are bad
They were probably long tech all last year.
>MSFT cuts 10k jobs, Amazon cuts 17k
That's nothing. Everything non-tech is fine and tech has bottomed. Up only.

>>53336957
asl?

>>53337893
>just started the first round of layoffs
>bottomed
kek

>>53337907
The market has already priced in layoffs which is why blue-chip tech is already down 50+%.

>>53337907
Ya smg doesn't know what the fuck it's talking about 90% of the time

>>53337566
Whos saying im not?

this doesn't make sense. if it's already "priced in" and goes down, then are you not implying it will go back up again, back up to levels as if it was never "priced in"?

so why bother pricing it in the first place if it's just gonna go back to square one. this is schizo finance

>>53337905
One time when I was a kid, I went all around the yard finding as many toads as I could and put them all in one place. I hoped that they would form a community and evolve into a tribal society.
They didn't

>>53337889
This is why you need to use revenue and earnings numbers rather than try to adjust for inflation.
real returns can be deeply negative, forever if they want to be. There's no return to a real mean so it's pointless trying to convince us that inflation has rendered the SPY undervalued.
because if inflation has peaked, that means revenues are no longer getting an artificial boost. there's no 15% inflation induced rally coming.

>>53337942
The dip in prices is transitory. Over in 3, 6 months, tops.

>>53337921
the market didnt know about layoffs when everything went down 50% you absolute mongoloid

>>53337868
hi newfriend!

>>53337942
>this doesn't make sense. if it's already "priced in" and goes down, then are you not implying it will go back up again, back up to levels as if it was never "priced in"?
Yes.

>so why bother pricing it in the first place if it's just gonna go back to square one. this is schizo finance
This is the foundation of permabullishness anon.

>>53337966
Layoffs were expected due to aggressive hikes. Priced in.

>>53337966
you must not know how smart smart money is lol

Should I dump my money in UPRO or TQQQ this year?

>Futures

>>53337959
No, but nor does it have to sink to 330 or whatever. As far as I'm concerned, the bottom in October wasn't 365; it was 310.

That's enough of a bear market shakeout (35%) to have a slow, steady recovery from then on.

>>53337994
>365
*Sorry, 360. Was getting it mixed up with June.

>>53337992
soxl

>>53337993
yellow like your ID

>>53337782
>>53337729
>>53337744
>reality doesn't matter
im gonna side with the other guy

>>53337993
>No image
So...there is no future?!

>>53337566
i was bullish on Natgas for a week, then bearish on spy for this week. next im looking for a retard pump in a random penny stock.

>people actually trying to time the market

If you think you know when the full dump and or pump is coming you're delusional. The economy isn't strong, isn't weak, it's just moving along with no real power to grow -big deal. It will grow more again sooner rather than later and good firms with cash on hand will be prepared for the stronger economy to succeed.

What I am saying is invest in firms with good cash flows and or a good management outlook and plan for the future. It will be hard for you go fail given a 5yr~ time frame.

>>53337992
You sure you wanna dump your money into TQQQ in a time of economic uncertainty? I guess you could if you got the balls

>>53338022
if you haven't noticed the market doesn't live in reality sir.

>>53338035
i dont need cash in 5 years boomer i need it now.

>>53338040
Moreover, tech didn't lead us out of the last tech bubble crash. The next decade will have outperformance from some gay shit like biotech or weed stocks.

>>53338035
The economy is at worst "fine" and will be strong in the future. Markets are forward looking, strong economic growth is being priced in. Up only.

>>53338040
There's no economic uncertainty.

>>53337681
Right but the rest of the world is going to inflate more, leaving the dollar as the hyperinflated world reserve currency and suddenly the average government budget is in the trillions

>>53338027
>the future

>>53338035
who has 5 years to dick around to make 3% on a return MAYBE.

>>53338035
this. the bear case doesnt make sense, if everyone knows a recession is coming and will be temporary until inflation is curbed, then why would you sell low. The cashflow isnt discounted by that much for a single year of downturn. Things will continue to grow, and bears will be left in the dust again scratching their heads why spx never touched 2000s like they thought it would due to MUH FAIR VALUE. But they've never even done analysis in their lives they're just schizo doomers jerking off when society is in a downturn.

>>53338051
I mean if you've got a bad salary good luck you're basically ngmi.

Need to make enough to invest to be rich. Otherwise you're barking up the wrong tree and would be better off getting a good GRE or GMAT.

>>53337602
more OC made for you /smg/

>>53338066
that looks like the past

I genuinely enjoy reading you guys arguing.

>>53338067
by golly some people are lucky to beat the SPY son. back in my day a 3% return was good honest money and you didnt even have to think about it.thats what im all about, not using my brain at all to barely get anything in life. learn from me son and you too can make 3% in 5 years. thats free money son, simple as.

>>53338087
The worst was priced in and anticipated in October 2022.

>>53338088
time is a flat circle

>>53337718
That chart is proof that welfare is great in the short term but horrible past that, since it creates unwarranted security and poor spending habits.

>>53338109
Every post-pandemic era needs a good, healthy round of liquidation. It's a law of nature.

>>53338067
from 2012 to 2022 you earned over 20% per year literally just holding spx.

>>53338067
If you are smart you'll find good strong companies with cash flow and good business models for the future and you'll be making dividend yield and great returns.

Don't be blinded by Jew greed

>>53338069
Yeah the market has to go up, if it doesn't the society literally breaks. People forget the markets care little about today and far more about yr over yr going outward.

Invest for the future not for tomorrow or even for this year.

>>53338118
based and liquidationpilled

>>53338126
>Boomers could buy 20% yielding treasuries in the early 80's

>>53338069
it is because i spent a lot of time studying crashes I understand the indicators that lead to longer recessions.
where you break even in the best case 2 years from now. yes even after this huge dump.
if 2 years isn't a long time for you be my guest.
freight train takes time to get running after it goes off the rails.

>>53338118
> “pandemic”
>implying

>>53338128
The way to make money is to invest in profitless hypergrowth tech. This sector has just about been wrecked, it's time to buy.

>>53338126
ive made over 100% in 2 years by scouring smg for sentiment and panic selling stocks its too easy. most of investing like this is luck so you have to try it enough to get lucky.

>>53338134
What study is this and you just don't get exact returns yoy. You're going to be injecting cash daily monthly etc, so your returns can always wash out the major loses incurred in a bad time and benefit from the good.

Study this dick crashing into your mouth nigger.

>>53338134
name a bear case for the top 5 biggest companies in the s&p 500 that would happen in a "crash" where we go below 3000, it is not happening my man.

>>53338182
you cant even fathom it because the last time this almost happened was in 2008 and tons of banks would have been bust, leading to the top 5 biggest companies going bust. i bet if you read about the great depression the top 5 biggest companies are long gone. these big companies need cheap cash.

>>53338182
The top 5 companies in the SPX are AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOG and BRK. Tech coming back to being "fairly valued" was the whole cause of the crash. I think tech has bottomed, but if not, AAPL alone can drag the market down quite a bit.

Bank of America puts tomorrow? I'm thinking yes.

Why are markets such antsy fucks pricing shit in 6 months in advance?

>>53338201
If aapl drops significantly we will see rebalancing in other industries.
>tech goes down
>oil goes up and carries SPX with asset class changing

>>53338066
those are men

>>53338238
Apple in particular is so highly weighted that if Apple goes down big somehow it will hit the SPX hard even if people try to hide out in energy.

Thread Theme
https://youtu.be/MeML4ee6P64

>>53338199
Biggest companies at the time of the great depression:

- Standard Oil (Currently Exxon)
- General Motors
- Ford
- US Steel
- Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea (A&P, largest US retailer until 1965 and largest grocery retailer until 1975, dissolved in 2015)

Otherwise ur wrong

>>53338250
>apple will suddenly not make anymore money nor have any possible future projections of good cash flows.

Cringe post

>>53338274
he said IF, and people thought nokia/motorola would never stop making money either. AR is a big threat to apple.

>>53338270
heh, thanks for educating me for free, sucker.
banks almost went bust in 2008 still though.

>>53338274
Have you read my posts ITT? I'm a permabull. I'm just telling you how it *could* happen that Apple can drag the SPX down.

>>53338291
Actually retarded, it took years for Nokia to die and Motorola still exists and actually makes money lmao.

Apple is an insanely strong brand, well managed company. There is nothing you could possibly know that they do not.

>>53337689
do you hold any other covered call etfs? I myself also have NUSI, QYLG, and DIVO.

>>53338301
Motorola is acquired by lenovo (china), and I am aware they still exist because they acquired a company i was invested in 4 years ago

How bad is everyone down from last year? Lost 209k

>>53338320
damn brah

>>53338320
Up 30%
Only put in 5k lmao.

>>53338320
>...out of 210k

>>53338301
>Nokia
>>53338313
Holy shit Nokia still exists too. What the fuck. Do they only exist in Japan?

N

Nokia has market share in europe, unironically. Poors use them in america.

>>53337209
JEPI is for income and capital preservation. It's just a dividend ETF like DVY or SCHD but pays a lot more due to options writing. The markets will likely crab for the next decade anyway so income>>>>>gainz unless you're buying individual stocks.

just buy JEPI on margin to make up for the lost volatility.
The payouts will pay for the interest

>>53338379
I don't think its the next decade, that would presume there is another area of growth which I am just not sure about. There are stable countries of Africa but they already have great GDP's already relative. Nambia? I think has similiar GDP to Europe and is extremely safe.

>>53338320
Last year put my portfolio $6,700 into the red but I didn't realize any losses

I havent looked at my trust in a while
Should I? I just withdraw small amounts for purchases and bills

>>53338377
Are you talking about the mobile phones? Nokia sold that division forever ago.

>>53338131
I fucking hate how easy they had it, the stock market would've outperformed bonds sure but fuck me that's such a good example of how prosperous their lives were

>>53338379
JEPI is for crab markets, yes. Buying it after a 2008 or covid style crash like you posted earlier would be retarded though.
You buy leverage and high beta like SOXL into stimmies.
You buy JEPI... well right now I suppose. Personally I'd rather just buy individual stocks and sell my own CCs though.

I feel like taking the JEPI pill just so I dont have to think about my money.

>>53338404
I think it's mainly the US markets that will crab. The fed is determined to break the mentality that causes stocks to moon and drives inflation. We are probably looking at a 1970s stock market for the next decade with huge gains but also huge losses.

>>53338426
How much is it and what's it invested in?

>>53338438
This is like RYCEY and those cars, isn't it? Modern Nokia just makes pants or something.

>>53338459
If the market starts dumping then you'll definitely have to think about it. JEPI can drop a lot. If you really don't want to worry about your money then just buy treasury bills

>>53338450
I have risk capital I can use to gamble on the markets. JEPI is more like a high yielding low-maintenance rental property that you can hold forever and live off the income. A diversified portfolio containing income and growth is usually best. I wouldn't buy JEPI with cash right now because if the market crashes as it likely will it will get a lot cheaper. 2009 was a good time to buy dividend stock ETFs like SDY and another opportunity is approaching.

>>53338463
I dont know I have a hard time believing anyone else will take over from the U.S. South America will have a rebound economically -- however they ultimately lack the stability needed for consistent growth to pull dollars in. If a country does too well the glowniggers strike (not to be /pol/ but its a unconestable fact that the U.S intervenes to destabilize south america if it goes against the U.S interests).

>>53338498
If you buy JEPI after a crash, you're going to underperform. The covered calls will cap the upside while the market pumps like mad in the initial crash rebound.
I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying. Do you understand the concept of a covered call?

>>53337944
I enjoyed this, anon.

>>53338521
>If you buy JEPI after a crash, you're going to underperform
After a crash JEPI will underperform relative to the S&P if the S&P rebounds, but not relative to bonds and treasuries. The options strategy caps both upside and downside. That's why JEPI went down 1.1% today while the S&P fell 1.6%. JEPI is a dividend ETF and it has its place in the income portion of a diversified portfolio to provide high income and inflation protection. Nobody is suggesting that an entire portfolio be invested in it. The JEPI dividends and options income don't vanish just because the underlying stock rebounds.

random financial advice if you're shopping for taste oranges. Get a cara cara blood orange. fuck a mandarin

I thought JEPI was some shitstock you ding dongs were shilling, why are you all sucking off a JP Morgan ETF so hard? What's the catch?

>>53337944
I threw rocks at black kids at my grandmothers behest when they would come near her property

>>53337944
it is still possible, anon. if you go around collecting and reposting froges/toads on the internet, you will see them proliferate as the community continues to expand and evolve into increasingly complex variations. in a way, all frogposters are members of a singular internet tribal society of frens

>>53338577
It's become very popular in the dividend stocks community due to the high yield and apparent safety/stability. I like the concept but I'm worried that it's getting too popular though.

>Nasd-ACK!!

>>53338577
we can't trade the current market, so we are giving up and letting the learned elders do it for us. That is the catch.

>>53337588
objectively false, the fed has been TRYING to increase inflation for years, they wanted this.

>>53338603
Crazy how everyone forgets that so quickly. They were already saying that we "need higher inflation" in like 2018

>>53338603
They wanted controlled inflation. However -- currently its only semi controlled. Labour market is so hot the fed is afraid of wage demand spiral.

How do I get beautiful women to sit on my ugly face?

What stocks do I short for this feel?

3 years of zero net gain

it's fucking over

>>53338711
Check out VEU. Flat since 2007 (divvys aside).
That'll be us the next decade.

The situation is rapidly evolving into a repeat of the 2000 tech crash, except this time it makes up a much larger portion of the economy. The contagion will soon spread. Nobody appreciates just how bad this is going to get.

Women have vaginas.

>>53338789
some of them are so small it hurts your cock

>>53338807

quit having sex with children anon

>>53338789
>This is a controversial statement in the current year

>>53338576
Based

Ression in 2 more quarters 2 weeks and 2 days from now.

>>53338849
we've been in a recession for 12 months now

>>53337415
Was this made by an AI?

>>53338813
no

>>53338711
Based inflation considerer.

>>53338701
Christ she's still trying to stay relevant. I lost interest in her once I saw her porno when I found out she's a terrible lay and clearly is uninterested in sex.

>>53338320
In retrospect taking the big loss in February was an excellent decision.

>>53338916
>2021

>>53338916
>Jan 21

>>53338849
>>53338866
We've been in a recession since March 2020, fuck jews

>>53338924
>>53338926
>OG GME mania was 2 fucking years ago
Alright fuck this I'm going to bed.

>>53338924
>>53338926
*Ahem* I'm sorry it appears I'm retarded.

>>53338944
It's ok. Why don't you go pet the rabbits?

>>53338951
Rabbits? I like rabbits!

can someone w/ an anime image recommend me a stock

>>53338942
never again will SMG happen upon a make it opportunity of that magnitude

>>53338971
OSTK

>>53338774
Kek, I'm old enough to remember the dot com crash. SO many websites and companies died out. 2001 was bad, then 2002 got even worse, inflation doubling and fucking people over.

Interesting that AMZN survived that crash, but I think maybe this time it won't.

>>53338971
DNUT (in a 2D anime girl)

>>53338971
tqqq or sqqq at the appropriate times is all you need

>>53338984
I was a teenager and don't really remember hearing much about the dot com crash, but I most certainly remember the 08 crash. Shit was insane. Couldn't buy a job. I remember when I got fired from red lobster I was in pure panic. I ended up having to take a job selling cell phones in a sam's club kiosk because there were absolutely no jobs available. People need to remember that because it could happen again.

>>53338971

>>53338701
anons?

>people in this thread talking about 2008

Market pumps tommorow

>>53339008
you could always try inversing my oil position. I am pretty much all in OXY and XOM.

>>53338942
>>53338978
GME made this board full of retarded newfags and pajeets instead of just pajeets

>>53339034
Nigger, I'm about to lose my job in the next few weeks, and you retarded NEETs still think this is a bull market.

>>53339034
>Just rejected 200 DMA breakout
>Claims data inching up
>Housing data confirms as shit
Nah, rest of the week is a Bone Saw market.

>>53339064
That is cool and all, but I also made $120,000

>>53339065
How does it feel to be poor?

I keep forgetting a jannie posts here who has a job. Disgusting. I hope the layoffs kill you, lol

>>53339087
Which poster is the janny?

>>53339096
me

>The Daughters of the Bog inherited their fathers' power yet also their physical curse.
>They each set out on their own. One for every industry.
>The only colors they knew were emerald and blood.

>>53339087
Why would a janny need a second paycheck?

>>53339079
I make nearly $200k.

>>53339072
I can respect that

>>53339100
OH God! Are you burp anon?
That explains how you keep changing your ID.

>>53339126

>>53339066
I wouldn't call it a rejection of the 200 dma yet, a ton of large cap shit has bullish looking MACD and RSI

>>53339152
>He makes 200k

>>53338971
DOLE

>>53338989
Man I love their doughnuts but I don't know about actually owning the business

>>53339234
Don't. They've gone public and delisted a dozen times over.

>>53339225
What's the angle to Dole? Just a good staple stock?

>>53338971
SQQQ

>>53338971
JACK

>>53338066
those men have nice feet

>>53338984
I remember in 2000 people getting laid off from tech companies and saying they would just go to grad school and by the time they finished in 2002 the dot com mania would have resumed. They were mistaken. Hope springs eternal.

Favorite AI-related stocks?

>>53338971
NDIV

>>53339283
I wonder what she’s saying?

>>53339258
Yea, decent divy too but they are taking on a bit of debt right now as they recently acquired Total Produce, Europes largest produce company to become the largest fresh produce company in the world.

>>53339345
META

>>53338055
i'm buying Bio techlology this is where the money lays, all of these futuristic cities/societies will need startrek level health tech to function.

tomorrow is going to suck

>>53337128
You’re just one of those ivory tower folk who grew up seeing the world through a distorted lens, bro. I grew up fairly poor to lower middle class, and I’ve been middle class for years now with a third kid on the way. Everyone in my family is blue collar. My whole neighborhood is blue collar. We are doing much better than you think. Nobody in my family has ever been wealthy. I’ve never even known a rich person. If I knew you, you’d be the richest guy I know. Most people I interact with on a daily basis are poorer than me. They’re completely fine and still buy what they need and often times want. I don’t know how you calculated your net worth, but 1.6m is probably more than I’ve ever seen.

>>53338701
I just want hot girls to put their vaginas and buttocks on my mouth and face. How is that so much to ask for?

>>53337893
>That's nothing. Everything non-tech is fine and tech has bottomed. Up only.
Tech hasn't bottomed
I'm in tech and we don't feel bottomed at all

My company and all my friend's companies are battening the hatches.

>>53339500
>>53339500
>>53339500
>>53339500