/biz/ - Business & Finance

Make sure to long BBBY on tuesday for 2nd round squeeze, then remember to buy puts so you can post your gains porn on them in the BBBY baggie thread that will become the new GME thread

Buy Aqb and hold for 20 years. It’s that easy

get on the SOS train before its too late

whoa mumu, whats the gun about?

Here's Some Corporate modeling sheets. Tell me what you guys think. https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1LTaLTyghKrXfG0aVBF-AjIx3QA0BRzPE?usp=share_link

Hey ice been outta the loop for a bit, can I get a qrd of important happenings next week, Powell, earnings, 3 letter reports, etc? Thanks

So the only thing keeping inflation from rising faster is oil and gas shitting the bed? If something were to happen causing oil and gas to increase drastically, lets say a nuclear explsion in ukraine, we would see inflation going above 10%, right? Will the use of nukes cause the FED to increase money supply for another arms race or will they increase rates to fight inflation?

>>53270824
Powell's still masturbating about putting markets in the dumper but he has to wait like 6 months because he's afraid of bonds turning potentially illiquid like the UK did. Inflation has stopped dead, but Powell really wants to stick it to wagies because he heard Volcker say poor people cause inflation and they need to give more money to Larry Fink. 2 trillion still in the Reverse Repo Facility paying him 4.3%

Market went up for like 3/4 days now. I am getting antsy and want to sell some of this rally off but maybe I should hold a little longer. I am so traumatized by this market that I fully expect for this rally to give it all up again next week.

>>53270751
>bulls - baghold on the way down
>bears - baghold on the way up
fuck you all lol

>>53270849
>If something were to happen causing oil and gas to increase drastically, lets say a nuclear explsion in ukraine, we would see inflation going above 10%, right?
No. Oil and nat gas aren't even restricted. The price increase for them is literally artificial because energy companies are all openly in a cartel. They have been for decades. There's literally never been a slow down in the production of oil. The sanctions just stopped people from buying MORE oil from Russia, but the amount they were consuming never went away. Ukraine isn't causing inflation for practical reasons. It's just geopolitical balance of power shit. A bomb going off doesn't change the practical reality of any of it. Oil and nat gas are just completely decoupled from market pressures because the free market is ridiculous and fake.

>>53270729
What’s the point of stocks for poorfags like the average /biz/ user? You barely get any profit. What, like you want me to wait for 5 years to get a 33% on my investment?

clear bull trap, tech companies laying of staff and shit earnings will bring the whole house of cards down

>>53270925
NEGG did 100% yesterday.
Thanks for stopping by.

>>53270925
Exactly. The only way to make it with a buy and hold strategy is to DCA as much as you can afford for a long time frame. What’s the point of hitting a five bagger if it takes half a decade and I only had $8000 at the time to put in? You have to start out as a six figure investor to make life changing money in a reasonable timeline.

>>53270912
Wrong. The oil and nat gas deposits found in Ukraine in early 2010s would have completely eliminated Russia’s energy leverage over the EU, hence why they moved into those territories (Donbass and Crimea)

>>53270933
This is one of reasons why I'm very suspicious of the claim that the bull market is returning. No way big tech would be laying off so many people if they have good future expectations.

BOJ BLACKSWAN NEXT WEEK. YCC ENDING, GLOBAL CONTAGION. LONGS TRAPPED FOR THE LONG WEEKEND!

>>53270960
It's the ALL CAPS that makes it believable

>>53270936
And what DD could I have done to determine a stock would go 100% in a day? That’s not normal and chasing after those is going to blow up your account.

>>53270972
CURTAINS

>>53270977
>chasing
Rookie, you don't chase those. They appear and you take advantage.
>blow up
Yes, exponential and explosive do have the same root word, good of you to notice.
>DD
Go back.

>>53270990
DON'T CHARTPOST AT ME MAAAAAAN

>>53270404
peepeepoopoo eat my butthole faggot

>>53270960
>GLOBAL CONTAGION
Yea, the "vaccine".

Anyone who doesn't think this market is going to crash again is delusional. When the fed hike rates again to fight inflation you will see. To many foundational shit wrong with the economy. Housing market, Auto industry, etc etc.
Moomoo's remain stupid as ever. At least swing trade this shit and walk away with a nice bag.
There's literally no way this fucker doesn't drop and the market loosing is only going to force the fed to even HARDER.

>>53271044
This, I have yet to see price action stay above the 200 day moving average and stay there. Every time we tag those levels the market goes down more.

>>53271044
>>53271052
the fact that there's still hopium around the fed pivot means sentiment hasn't bottomed yet

>>53271052
WHAT IF IT DOES STAY ABOVE THIS TIME
WHAT THEEEEEEEEN

>>53271044
>two more weeks said increasingly unhinged and nervous bobo

This is the head of Nvidia's AI division. Bullish or bearish?

>>53271115
I use Mac and I'd rather you didn't bring any of this pajeet PC shit to my attention.

>>53271137
based retard

>>53271165
mac
>having a gf
pc
>being a gynaecologist

>>53271044
We’ve had a 30% correction. A whole year in the red. Kill yourself bobo

I am ready for the garbage rally. Levered to the HILT with BTC, TSLA, ARKK, SQ, META, etc.
LETS FUCKING GO. ITS GARBAGE TIME AGAIN. LETS PARTY LIKE ITS 2021.
GARBAGEBROS WW@?

>>53271190
>NVDA is a PC manufacturer
Oh wait, I'm being baited.

>>53270933
>>53270956
Doesn't matter if earnings are bad you cock slobbering bobo losers, bullchads like myself WILL continue increasing our monthly DCA regardless of earnings. Zoom out and observe that the market only goes up.

>>53271226
Reminder that the nikkei still hasn't returned to 1981 levels.

>>53271232
Because 1981 nikkei levels were ridiculous?

>>53271243
Nowhere near as ridiculous as the current QE-fueled hyperbubble.

>>53271193
You don't know what those words mean do you you fucking retarded child? We're in a bear market triggered by the Federal reserve. Lower lows and lower highs. A correction is anything above a drop of 20% MAX. After 20% it's considered a crash you retarded fuck head. But that doesn't say anything about the objective environment we are in which EVERYONE who isn't a retard agrees is a bear market.

You faggots are so fucking delusional the onyl argument you have is "nu uh nu uh" Kill yourself you dumb nigger, god damn, kek.

>>53271216
i don't hear mac users talking about their new invidia whatever invidia makes

>>53271280
Most nvidia sales aren't to consumers, b8fag.

>>53271232
The S&P 500 will never go below 4000 ever again, if you were too greedy to buy at 3500 you're a permabobo like Michael "Cassandra the Tranny" Burry.

>>53271283
nobody's baiting you you paranoid schizophrenic
nivindia = pajeetshit

>>53270751
that ugly fat slob was bearish on rycey and after he sold. it went up over 40%
>spicy ricey
>spicy ricey
>spicy ricey
>spicy ricey
>spicy ricey

>>53270949
Curious. Tell me where i can read about these deposits. How big are they exactly?
Either way though:
We're talking about the immediate oil supply and the effects a nuke would have on it. There's nothing that could happen to Ukraine that would actually affect global oil production at the moment. Whatever could have happened in crimea back in 2014 has nothing to do with this.

>>53271115
Based. This means he wants to fuck his employees right?

>say that I try to budget every week to spend less than 100 dollars on everything I need
>some guy tells me that if I only spend less than 100 a week I must be poor and should go back to university for a better degree
What's with niggas on this website and hating thrift and saving money. When I was a dumb kid with no money and a dumb college student with no money I would always spend it on stupid shit as soon as I got it, but now that I'm a responsible adult I must be a poorfag if I run a budget?

Why are people so damn bullish?

>>53271399
You sound like a fat loser, you're probably a bobo.

>>53271429
See >>53271447

>>53271252
yea well even DOGE is pumping so wtf do you kno
you cant explain that nonsense can you bobotard? sometines, lines just want to go up, okay. and it doesnt matter your feelings or what you think and its time to reconcile that.

>>53270751
>>53271323

>>53271429
There is currently no legitimate bobo thesis, every remaining bobo thesis is some delusional schizo shit. Inflation is over, Powell will start cutting rates in 6 months and the market is forward looking so it is front running the rate cuts.

THE BUTTON IS IN LOAD UP BOYS
ALWAYS TRUST THIS GUY AND SENTIMENT TRADER

>>53271485
So the recession starts in 6 months, okay

>>53271399
>saving money
you're not saving it you're sentencing it to death
multiplying money is saving it

>>53271517
We're a year into the recession, you greedy fucks had a crash from 4800 to 3500 and still refused to buy.

bears are no longer allowed to cum even once

time to recover the entire 2022 and reach new ath

>>53271559
Dude my company is looking to increase its staff by 50%. That's insane.
This is a recession? People are impossibly bullish

>>53271516
Now show me retail calls.

>>53271468
Yes I can you retard. It's called a market relief rally.Of course doge is pumping. All of crypto is pumping because crypto is a speculative asset that is not grounded in the real, actual, economy that produces useful commodities for consumption.
If crypto is pumping that is just going to signal to the Fed to hike even more because crypto is considered a high risk environment and we do not want high risk investing right now because of the state of the economy with inflation.
I can literally feel the stupidity emitting from your post. You can't print 6.7 trillion dollars to bail out Carnival Cruise liners in a fucking pandemic and expect things to just be ok in the economy. it's literally fundamental economics.

>it doesnt matter your feelings or what you think and its time to reconcile that.

The lack of self awareness in this post is astoundingly hilarious.

I'm not a bobo either you moronic faggot. I just love economics and finance. Only idiots ideological subscribe to a fucking cartoon bull/bear.

Just dropped. Does anyone here do business with these companies?

>>53271602
>i-it's just relief
Cope.

>>53271603
wtf is this figure?

>>53271609
>No argument other than

>N-N-N-NOOOO YOU'RE WRONG YOU'RE WRONNGGGGG

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/economy/jerome-powell-central-bank-forum-sweden/index.html


>Crashing this market with no survivors

I literally hope you people loose everything and kill yourselves.

>>53271603
I did business with Prologis, nice warehouse reit

>>53271603
I do, in fact, do business with some of these companies.

>>53271599
The stock market and the economy are 2 different things. I don't care if everyone gets fired and the poor fags riot in the streets if my stocks and crypto are mooning. We're going to see S&P 5000 and BTC 100k this year, buy or cope.

>>53271617
They are projected to take over the entire world

>>53271630
No you dumb fuck. We are going to see probably 5k S&P but not in this hawkish fed enviroment. When inflation is down to 2% (The feds literal goal) then we will see quantitative easing and easy money environments. You're a fucking tourist who knows absolutely nothing about economics or finance.

The stock market and the economy are fucking two sides of the same coin kek.

“Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.”

“The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors,” Powell added.

>>53271623
But you are wrong.

>>53271644
>But you are wrong

>>53271603
Silvergate

SI

this will be interesting

>>53271636
The market is forward looking you sneaky bobo, we'll see 5000 in the next 3 months.

>>53271623
>I literally hope you people loose everything and kill yourselves.
Bobo showing his true colors. The wet dream of a 90% stock market crash were he will buy the bottom. It's what every trading midwit thinks he deserves. Pathetic. YWNBAW !!!

how smart/stupid is it to load up on TMF and NUGT if I expect a pivot? If the dollar gets crushed alongside yields gold, and bonds should soar, no?

>>53271754
Where in your dreams?
Not how it works retard. People investing in stocks means that people have to much money and if people have to much money there's only one way to stop it. Hiking rates.
The fed doesn't give a shit about investors and you are all lemmings going right off the cliff.
I'm not a "bobo" either you fucking moronic child. You can't put me in your little retard boxes.

5000k S&P was over valued as fuck because we fucking lowered to near negative interest rates under covid and gave a 6.7 billion dollar bail out to worthless companies that should have sunk under covid. That is why the S&P was at 5k not because of your feelings kek./

Dividends are so nice.
What are you buying on Monday?
I'm going to get some CTC.A. Love me a consoomer.

>>53271797
>YOU'RE A BOBO
>YOU'RE A BOBO
>IF YOU AREN'T X YOU ARE Y

Live stream your suicide please

>>53270747
Lol I'm buying puts again on Tuesday

>>53271252
please tripcode so i can gloat to you in a few months you anime faggot

>>53271815
>I'm not a "bobo" either you fucking moronic child. You can't put me in your little retard boxes.

Translation:
>I have no idea what I'm doing

>>53271821
>>53271815
>>53271642
>>53271636
>>53271623
>I read the wikipedia page on monetary policy

Do you think none of us know this you bobo retard? Have you been here for the last year? line go up now ok

>>53271832
>Your knowldge of finance is bound to wether or not you identify with a cartoon bear/bull on degenerate site like 4chan

The absolute state of delusional investors.

>>53271827

>>53271845

>>53271842
Yeah you moron it's called denialism.
You can't actually explain your reasoning in any way that make sense so you just say 'nu uh nu uh nu uh" "it's a 'feeling" "it's intuition!"

You're desperate as fuck

>>53271845
Stock market in the next 6 months:

[ ] long
[ ] short
[ ] crab
[x] YoU cAn'T pUt mE iN yOuR liTtLe boXeS

>>53271860
>>53271845
bro thank you so much for your insight bro you saved me bro i just sold everything bro please let me suck your penis?

>>53271869
>BRO BRO I AM A RETARD BRO BRO

>>53271867
Obviously you should take the gains you have and exit the market and buy fucking puts you dumb nigger.

>>53271891
Please start namefagging as well thanks

>>53271891
No I'm not doing that but I'm glad you at least can imagine a position for your thesis. I'd be delighted to see your loss porn.

>>53271902
Pointless. See you in 6 months when you are sucking dick for crack.

WHAT DO I BUY IF I EXPECT A PIVOT AND A RECESSION?

>>53271915
No really you should. I bet you are the same retard that I argued with for over an hour because he wanted me to not buy AMZN summer of 2020. I'll never forget that retard.

>>53271937
Not that anon. But you re in for a rude awakening. Isn't amazon getting crushed in this market? Correct me if I am wrong.

You realize the pandemic happened in 2020 right?

>>53271944
>. But you re in for a rude awakening.
>You realize the pandemic happened in 2020 right?

Sure you weren't a bobo during the 2020 runup? Right before they started that bitter "clown market" sentiment they sounded exactly like you.

>Buying NOW? OMG YOU MUST BE MAD!

>>53271815
>not a bobo
Bobos are like chuds or incels where none of them will ever admit they are one because they know its a shameful thing to be. You're a bobo fag because you are still bearish after a full year of dumping, you will never make and you will never be a woman.

>>53271955
What is the difference between then and now.

Can you tell me?

>>53271957
>prove me wrong youi delusional retard. Stop calling me names and actually prove me wrong.

Why does Swedish steel have such a big divvie?

>>53271970
Didn't mean to include the >

>>53271967
stocks where cheap then and they are cheap now. But I bet you have a random difference in mind that some handsome looking youtuber told you about.

>>53271970
Prove what wrong? You spewed out a bunch of midwit reddit tier shit about rate hikes and macro. It's all already priced in or irrelevant.

Ah yes, Saturday morning stock market speculation arguments. You know I'm somewhat of a stock market myself.

>>53270729
Weekend SMG is the fucking worst, all the retarded wagies come out to post

>>53271516
not true
it was true 2 weeks ago
now there is excessive bullishness in all 3
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CPCI
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CPCE
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CPC
too many calls now

It’s a 30/70 portfolio. I just tossed 80% in this 30/70. Thinking about selling some bonds and buying more UPRO

I used to make 10k in 2020, then I made 30k in 2021, then 90k in 2022.
I need to triple my income this year.
I need to make at least 270k this year

>>53271982
No you dumb ass.

The market envrioments in regards to the federal reserve.

Covid-19 happened which shut down the entire planet and global economy and in a desperate attempt to not allow the world economy to tumble into the great depression 2.0 the fed lowered interest rates, again, almost to negative levels and stimulate the economy and incentives investment in the economy. They also printed 6.7 trillion dollars of liquidity and use that to bail out companies like Carnival cruise liners. Pretty much absolutely worthless investments, Not to mention the stimulus checks which retarded consumer cattle went out and spent on shit like playstations, shoes, and hookers and blow and other retarded shit (or invested back into the market)

This caused prices to skyrocket over the course of 2 years to nearly 10% the median value of goods in the economy because that is how inflation fucking works. Also the massive debt bubble caused by people using credit on literally EVERYTHING. There's so many reasons why the economy was so over valued. The more people can buy the lower supply goes and higher the demand goes.Believe it or not giving people free money is not congruent to a healthy economy.

So now, the fed has to back peddle and reverse course and get people to stop fucking spending money on frivolous things and dry up liquidity in the market so that prices will lower which is what they are doing:

Again and I qoute Federal Chairman Jerome Powell:

“Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.”

“The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors,”
Anyone who thinks we are going to see sustained green is a brainlet

>ATTENTION ALL WAGIES
>It has reached management that we have an abnormal amount of your kind in these threads on the weekends. Due to thread syngery meetings and the undergoing restructuring of the fund, some layoffs are indeed necessary. One on One counciling meetings will behind today to determine eligibility of employment.

>>53271986
>You're wrong cause....cause you just are OK

Yeah trust this guy. muh "priced in" meme, kek. Pathetic retard.

>>53271957
Seething

>>53272095
The fed never said prices should go lower. Not prices as in CPI nor stocks. So that is where your confusing comes from. Lower CPI does not mean lower prices. Negative CPI would mean lower prices. The fed never said "we want deflation" because that would be madness.

Stocks only go up.

Where the fuck am I supposed to put my money when the typical places for safety aren't safe anymore and I don't want to do options?

>>53272184
Take bets on sectors/stock classes outperforming others. For instance long small caps or Dow Jones and short something else (Nasdaq, SPX, ARKK) as a hedge.

>>53272151
What the fuck are you talking about? What do you think inflation is you delusional cow? Inflation is a raise in prices over the median of the over all economy. Faggots start jacking up prices to meet with the supply of goods going lower in order to meet with the demand of goods and services. I never said they want the CPI lower you tard but when the fed says they want "inflation to come down" that is what they mean. They want prices lower and the high was at 10% inflation which is insane and it has come down to 6.45% but that isn't low enough.
The goal for the fed is 2% inflation.

We still have months of red. Enjoy your delusional relief rally you tards.

>>53272151
lol

>>53272184
I am doing quite well in GOLD in this market

>>53272201
Last inflation rate MoM print was -0.1%
You are seeing ghosts from 2022 but 2023 you are imagining just inflation like the schizo that you are.

BTC bros why can’t we break 21k :(

>>53272184
Gold? It's cyclical though

>>53272227
>He thinks inflation is -0.1%

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

>>53272249
Tiker GOLD

>>53272238
children's christmas money running out

>>53272259
Are we talking about the future or the past?
And another thing. That the fed does not care a bit about investors is actually not real too.
Get a grip man. You likely need help. Aren't you taking your pills?

>>53272184
in the first two examples bonds were already offering attractive yields so when the fed cut they soared, while dipshit investors piled into equities hand over fist, got greedy and later heemed. Now we're in a scenario where the 10y is at 3.5%, and equities are grossly overvalued so bonds have become a good play again.

I can respect Michael Dingleberrie's opinion that inflation might come back. But someone who just reads the information wrong and trades based on old news just needs to leave.

>>53272278
>He thinks the fed cares about investors over the back bone of the economy which is real working class individuals who produce the cheap ass nuggets his mommy brings him.

We are talking about inflation. In dec inflation was 6.5$ and trending down but, again, the goal for the federal reserve is to bring inflation down to 2% so until we see 2% inflation the time of easy money is over.

I cannot stress this enough. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

>You're a bobo
>You're a wagie
>You're crazy
>You're wrong cause I Say so

What else are you gonna throw at me?

>>53272332
Market is forward looking 2-3 years and you don't even know where you are right now.

>>53272329
Delusional retard. I literally posted the current rate of inflation since it was last measured. I am not reading information wrong and I am not making trades based on "old news" The rate of inflation is released every month lmao.

This dude absolutely has to be trolling. It's not genetically possible to be this stupid is it?

>>53272342
No it isn't you dumb faggot. Cope

>>53272350
>I literally posted the current rate of inflation since it was last measured

You posted the 2022 inflation rate. Tell me, what year is it? Who's the president?

give me bear hopium

>>53272184
Just invest in Boston GMO’s Capital dislocation strategy

>>53272360
>YOU POSTED LAST MONTHS INFLATION RATE NOO IT'S A DIFFERENT MONTH NOW SO MAGICALLY THAT MEANS THAT THE LINE GO UP NOOOOOO

>>53272379
Well if you can't even accept that the market is forward looking this conversation is over!

i want the market to open so i can keep gambling short dated calls on meme stocks hurry the fuck up or i will turn to crypto

>>53272384
What market? Which market specifically?
You keep saying "the market" and if you think the whole stock market is forward thinking you are an even bigger retard then I though. Go ahead and run away though.

>>53272384
75 bepis hike incoming mumu

>>53272332
>the goal for the federal reserve is to bring inflation down to 2%
100% wrong. Their stated goal is to have inflation AVERAGE out to 2% "over time". What does that mean? Literally only they know, because it's purposefully vague which leaves them myriad opportunities to shift the goalposts and change policy overnight. The 2% goal is arbitrary, they could come out tomorrow and say "lol never mind we think 5% inflation is fine" and go right back to QE. But okay keep up the doomer bullshit. Lmao.

>fed releases a new recession probability every month
>has gone from 23% to 47% in 2 months
>market pomps

are recessions bullish?

>>53272434
The Fed has one tool to deal with recessions. ZIRP.
And the garbage rally WILL return.

THE BUTTTTON IS IN
H
E

B
U
T
T
T
T
O
N

I
S

I
N

>>53272418
No you little lying fag they want it to come down to 2% I have been watching the fed since march. Keep huffing on your copium though. It doesn't matter either way because we are still no where near where we need to be.

>>53272458
>28 posts by this ID
>I have been watching the fed since march
>march
Lmao get rekt you dumb ass bear

>>53272478

>>53272399
I don't have to insist on the fact that the market is forward looking to prove you wrong because all your tales about rate hikes and the evil fed are PRICED IN.

not the bobo fag that you're all arguing with
but mumus have been exceptionally euphoric and delusional these past weeks, with many claims that are very easily debunked
one by one
>inflation is defeated!! suck it bobo!!
we have seen core inflation, shelter inflation, food inflation, every kind category of inflation EXCEPT energy move higher
for example, shelter was +0.6% MoM last month - this is 7.44% inflation for housing annualized
over this past month, we have seen energy rocket back higher
>gasoline has moved from $2.10 to above $2.53 in less than a month
>gasoline +20.4% in 1 month
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline
>oil has moved from $70.11 to $80.07 in 1 month
>oil +14.2% in 1 month
what happens now that energy is moving sharply higher MoM, and core, shelter, food, everything else remains the same?
I'll give you a hint - inflation spikes back up again
You have drunk the SPR release kool-aid, hook line and sinker.
>the Fed is going to pivot, the market is moving higher!!
The Fed will not pivot. Each and every member of the Fed has said publicly extremely strongly the need to keep rates higher for longer, to prevent a 1970s repeat. They do not want to pivot at the first sign of economic weakness, as it would then make inflation surge higher; this would entrench expectations for inflation moving higher. The Fed already is unhappy with 5 year inflation expectations ticking up higher every single month. If they were to pivot prematurely, inflation would entrench itself, and it would make the second round of "chemo" that much worse and that much more destructive. They have strongly emphasized this over and over, and over and over.
The Fed will only pivot when there is serious economic destruction - in other words, when the economy has cancer
Celebrating a Fed pivot is like celebrating that you are receiving chemotherapy - it still means you have fucking cancer - it means the economy is so bad, that they need to pivot

>>53272491

>Fed pivot will save the market!!
so let’s say the Fed were to pivot (which they cannot)
how does this change corporate earnings?
how does this stop the recession that is already in motion?
does it inject more money into corporate earnings?
will companies have higher earnings ’22 Q4, ’23 Q1, ’23 Q2 because of a 25 basis point cut in rates? no.
it’s almost like everyone is braindead and forgets that monetary policy lags by 12-24 months - if they were to pivot and cut rates, it would take over a year for us to see the effects
it’s almost like everyone thinks a pivot / rate cut = immediate that same day boost to corporate earnings
it doesn’t fucking work that way
>The economy is strong!! Soft landing achieved!!
they lied. they overestimated jobs by 1 million, in order to win the midterm election. they released the SPR to drive down energy inflation, to win the midterm election. you have fallen for both as sheep.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/16/biden-administrations-claim-1-million-jobs-added-s/
google it
>1 million jobs overestimated
we have been rallying because the economy is *weak* NOT because the economy is strong
we have been rallying since ISM / PMI showed that we are in retraction 2 Fridays ago
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-176
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
these were the first readings under 50 all year - the retraction has only just started, and again, this is because monetary policy lags by 12-24 months
we are just now seeing the retraction - the market is trying to front run the fed with this retraction and argue that this will force the Fed to pivot
this is why we are rallying - because the economy is weak - not because the economy is strong

>bank earnings were good!!
no they weren’t. WFC saw a 57% decline in mortgage/home lending in a single quarter - a quarter where we still were not in retraction - Citi saw a 21% decline in profits; JPM / BAC, the only reason that they didn’t completely shit the bed is due to bonds rallying last quarter padding their books and fixed income trading desk - they no longer have this headwind. without this padding, JPM / BAC did equally as bad as WFC and C. all banks reported the same collapse in investing, lending, mortgages - and again, this was in a quarter where we weren’t even in retraction yet - things are getting worse in the economy since, not better. all banks have had to put side record hundreds and hundreds of millions for expected credit losses

>>53272496
>>53272517
>>53272529
>words words words
Just DCA, stop being a gay bobo loser. Buy every 2 weeks and hold, never sell. The stock market literally only goes up.

>>53272496
>inflation being a little sticky
even that is priced in
and it's speculatino at best. So if I talk about facts im euphoric and delusional but your speculative assumptions about future engery prices are what your whole thesis is based on.

Is there anything wrong with trying to buy 0.01 of large number of different funds other than having to pay excess fee?

>>53272554
We have actual data behind our positions you moron. You literally using your "feelings" as a defense is not the same.

>>53272554
>gasoline moving up higher than 20% in a single month is just speculation about the future
>oil moving up higher by 14% in a single month is just speculation about the future
it happened.. there's no "speculation" about it
speculating would be if we were at $2.10 gasoline a month ago and I said "Hey, next month I think it's going to move higher to $2.53"
then you would go "Wow, that's a crazy 20% jump that you're speculating will happen!"
It already happened.

>>53272529
>>53272517
>>53272496

when we dumping big bro

>>53272361
There's none. Everyone's buying RN (right now) and if you don't buy in you will get priced out of the generational bottom bobo!

>>53272590
Next week at worst
end of jan at the absolute most generous estimation.

>>53272574
I didn't even start to talk about my feelings yet. My feeling based on a lecture from robert shiller from 10 years ago is that people are going to boycott higher prices soon and cathy woods crazy predictions will become all to real when there is fear of a deflationary spiral. It's gonna be a bobocaust of unseen proportions.

I've been waiting for bears to cope and seethe but this is really surpassing my expectations lmao. You know they're fucking finished when the charts come out and they start whining about paradigms that were relevant twenty years ago. What do you think the move will be that finally convinces them that they're wrong and just got lucky for an entire year? Does Powell actually have to say "we're pivoting" for them to be satisfied?

>>53272590
I don't know - no one does
my honest opinion is that we break the trendline to the upside, the one that everyone has been posting everywhere
this will cause big capitulation among shorts, huge FOMO rally
this will provide the best liquidity for institutions / funds wanting to reposition - and they'll "make it happen"
I don't know what the catalyst will be that will drive the sell off - it could be something that another central bank does (eg. Japan) - it could be more EU/UK bank contagion
or it could be Q4 earnings, Q1 earnings, Q2 earnings, or the Fed
or it could be at a certain point, the bad data keeps coming in, and the market realizes how shit the economy is, and the Fed will not come to the rescue - at a certain point the dynamic will shift where bad news is seen as bad news, instead of
>wow, this bad news means the Fed will pivot!

>>53272615
>Believing fucking cathy woods

bwahahahahahaha
People are no homogeneous. Boycotting never achieves anything other than a marginal impact by a niche group of faggots. There is no safe place for you to return to retard.

Reality is not a brand new heck mangarino, kid.
There is not going to be a great push back against institutional investors. You live in a delusion I am sorry to inform you.

>>53272624
Lmao dude are you fucking serious with this shit? "Big money is just waiting for liquidity!!!!" Hahahahahaha you have to be fucking joking! Did you just time warp from a year ago? Did you miss 12 straight months of red? Did you miss the biggest green candles in 5 fucking years that happened in October? Surely you understand that that's the bottom, surely you understand that the capitulation has already happened. Lol jesus fucking christ.

>>53272616
>LOL YEAH BRO HISTORY IS IRRELEVANT

>>53272647
I'm not a cathy woods believer but even a blind chicken can find a grain.

>>53272659
Hahahahahahahahaha history is what proves you dumb doomer motherfuckers WRONG over and over and over again

Please Jerome sir, maybe I have some more bepis?

>>53272656
>The market was red for 12 months so that means that it has to be green!

>>53272616
Interest rates will not be lowered faggot

>>53272669
No it doesn't you retard.
ever heard of paul volkner? KEEP HUFFING YOUR COPIUM

>>53271603
>tuesday
>silvergate
lmao cryptokeks going to have a fun week

>>53272656
yes - they 100% care about liquidity lol.
they are able to sell their positions without slippage
they are able to enter new positions without slippage
fund wait until there is huge volume to reposition
a move higher above the trendline will provide this liquidity

>>53272688
I really don't understand how it is possible for some one to be as stupid as that anon.

So if a recession comes (and that's looking very likely) just like the last one in 2008 I'll simply go to work as normal. Life's one big party when you've got job security and a dedicated retirement package waiting for you. I remember the aftermath; cost of things went down. All while my salary didn't. But this time my salary is looking to go up in july (again). During 2008's aftermath I got my house cheap. During the 2023 "recession" I'll be able to dump into the S&P for cheap. (I'm already doing it but still) Bring it on. I'm waiting. For the epic gains I'll get after its all done.

>>53272688
>>53272683
>>53272679
>>53272677
Oh this is getting juicy, we're reaching critical levels of cope and seethe. Lmao.

>>53272184
do you know how bonds actually work though? why would anyone get secondary issues that are locked into near-zero coupons? those prior incidents hit the markets at a time when there were plenty of bonds floating around that paid respectable 2-3% coupons.
just go out there and buy some cheap A-rated corps with an 8% yield. who gives a fuck about government debt?

>>53272706
Yes he's stupid, so you can just filter his ID and move on instead of making the thread revolve around his inanities.

>>53272717
>IT'S JUST COPE I'M TOTALLY NOT THE ONE COPING EVEN THOUGH NOTHING I SAID HAS HAD ANY ACTUAL EVIDENCE OR DATA WHAT SO EVERY BEHIND IT

>>53272727
behold my very cool digits

>>53272727
Oh yeah, fair.

God I hate wagecucks.

>>53272184
you were supposed to buy ibonds ~2 years ago

>spend years with shitty internet on laptop because adapter doesn't work properly with ISP
>finally fix it
>internet works now

In the past year I have spent thousands of dollars on stuff I didn't want or need. I am a fool.

>>53272184
>>53272726
yeah not sure why you would expect TLT to a safe place to put your money.
also IEF is not equiv to VFITX.
VFITX avg duration = 5.3 years
IEF avg duration = 7.7 years

>>53272814
at least you can probably sell most of them. Think of the people who blew money on SOXL calls lmao.

>>53272814
Torrent is your friend. for some things anyway.

BTC is crashing my basterds

this is an auspiciously shit thread, I am in awe. Have a fun weekend nerds.

>>53272860
priced in and decoupled

>>53272814
Yeah... me too. Tried to curb my retard spending last year to some avail though.

>>53272864
>markets closed
>7am
what the fuck did you expect?

>>53272496
>>53272517
>>53272529
>>53272587
>>53272624

Thanks for the analysis. Surprisingly lucid for this thread.

>>53272874
>SBF gets out of prison
>btc starts acting like a shitcoin again

>>53271044
I really don't care if market goes down. 90% of my portfolio is companies that pay fat dividends. If market goes down then guess what, I'll buy more cheapies. Last october I went on buying spree and got plenty of stocks with single digit P/E that are now 20-30% since then and still have dividend yield around 4%.
In short, bobos / traders are the only ones who care about temporary price action, people like me who are long win either way so I don't really care.

>>53272956
Same here buddy. I look a my roth once a year to add funds, rebalance some ETFs, and sell covered calls.

y pump
i do not understand

>>53272956
>Last october
tell us about your life five months ago, before boomer investing, anon

>>53273010
Yeah but fuck 60/40 or 90/10. Is like another year of 100-0 and all red stocks.

>>53272814
solution:
1) more money
2) better tastes

I really do not think markets can go back up until the conditions are "just right" for DC. Biden is secretly hated by elites and was only there to cool things down and dumping markets while hes president is absolutely fine for the narrative. I'm feeling we will have a bush jr esque president and things will start to bounce back slowly by then we will have weird hot wars in ukraine where NATO is actually in it and poland/ukraine become afghanistan for the next decade and half. Markets did not dump on bush jr until the very end and we were blowing shit up in iraq every other day. Markets crashed then we have 8 years of obama to play social media politics trump was just the 4 years cherry on top so they kept it going up anyways. Markets did great under clinton cause he moved america into embracing broken families and MTV jersey shore culture.

>>53273069
Thats what I usually do but I actually loaded up on some bonds this year. Im around 80/20 now. I was thinking about setting up a bond ladder but went with AGG

>>53272835
at the end of 2023 TLT will be a lot more attractive to most people. but no, not today.
and i say, don't fall for it. i'm rotating to big bank credit.

>>53271115
Hes shit talking Musk

>>53273253
80/20 might be my move come March.

I finally removed the 25 week old vegetables in my fridge, it smelled really bad. Do you think it has caused the meat in the fridge to go bad aswell? it tasted kind of funny and I always remove all the wrapping before I put it in.

what's this pattern called?

>the bearish thesis is forecasting bad economic data that has shown no signs of forming
I guess just sit there while your puts and cash degrade into nothing waiting for the next 08.

Fact: When we all see the recession coming, banks, stores, and companies position accordingly to minimize the blows. Aka the recession doesn't happen. Nor will your "credit event". Everyone slowly deleveraged out last year. There's no event to happen.

>>53273363
Probably, mildew and such needs to be cleaned asap. Clean your fridge and put the box of baking soda in.

>>53273363
Uh well small contained area plus bad smell, yeah I'd say everything else in it will have the smell to aside from drinks or things with a tight lid on it.

>>53273427
Yeah baking soda is one of those universal all in one type things. Works wonders for many things. Real good for cleaning coffee stains up to.

>>53273384
The "nothing ever happens"

>>53273384
crabwalk

>>53273415
>that has shown no signs of forming
buddy, look at manufacturing and services PMI / ISM
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-176
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
look at credit delinquencies / defaults
https://www.axios.com/2023/01/11/credit-card-interest-rates-hit-record-high
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-credit-card-delinquencies-to-rise-next-year-transunion-says-1.1859179
>The credit bureau found that delinquencies of 60+ days past due neared 4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, which is the highest point for that measure since 2013.
all time high debt, with 19% interest rates, delinquencies already rising in 4th quarter to 10 year highs
layoffs increasing by the day - thousands of employees being laid off every day

>>53271429
China reopening. The FED is a sideshow.

wait the FED is a private entitiy and not controlled by the govt?

>>53273415
The bull thesis is that the mother of all economic recessions is coming which will require the mother of all QEs to flood the market with the mother of all liquidity to pump up all garbage in the mother of all short squeezes.
/smg/ you need to buy some garbage to ride the tsunami that is coming

>>53273576
and we all remember the financial crash in 2013 right?

>>53273599
if it was controlled by the govt it couldn't make independent decisions, no?

I want to buy some Nintendo, I expect an announcement for the Switch's successor by the end of the year

>>53273594
>China reopening
>really bullish for oil
>oil rises Inflation
>Fed has to tighten even more

>>53273648
but an entity that can print an unlimited amount of money would effectively have more power than any government, right? why would they allow it in the first place?

>>53273599
Because the government is way to retarded to control monetary policy, just look how fucked up fiscal policy is

>>53273632
we hit 2.71% during 2008 - 09 crisis, with a peak of 3.19% delinquency rates on credit cards
we are already above this number, and it will get worse, not better, as people are borrowing money at 19% interest in order to buy groceries, when they've lost their job and have no ability to repay it
https://newsroom.transunion.com/financial-crisis--10-years-later-consumer-credit-market-on-an-upward-curve/
>pic related
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/credit-card-debt-more-americans-can-t-cover-everyday-expenses
>January 5, 2023
>More Americans Tap Credit Cards for Everyday Expenses
>Census data shows that households are struggling to cover bills as pandemic savings run out.
>New data released Thursday in the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey found that more than 35% of households used credit cards or loans in December to cover spending needs in the past week. That’s up from around 32% in November and just 21% in April 2021
>trends that could indicate consumers have run down their savings
>All told, many households’ financial situations mirror their pre-pandemic realities, Akabas said: living paycheck to paycheck, without sufficient savings to cover emergencies — or sustained periods of high inflation.

so can someone explain why buying tlt is bad at this time/price?

>>53273687
Government controlled central banks generally do just that, print unlimited money and hyperinflation the currency. Therefore the only nations that tend to not fail are ones with independent central banks.

>>53272184
Love how these types of comparisons always just pretend that S&P500 is the only way to allocate to stocks.
And the only bonds in existence are long term US gov bonds.

>>53272450
Why would the fed lower intrest rates before the unemployment rate is 5%?

>>53273701
Corporations have way better balance sheets now then they did in 2008, but ya the consumer is fucked

>>53273751
>not understanding that 70% of GDP is consumption
but the balance sheets bro!!
who cares about earnings, revenue, profits, growth? the balance sheets!!

Don’t forget your Saturday ice bath Smg for max gains in2023
I’m already up bigly this year

I want Bobo to suffer.

had a dream I called a black guy a Nigger then threw a peanut butter jar at his head.
This is bullish for the market

>>53273874
Mint chip (green) is the best flavor

>>53273857
How much money is long only that must be invested 100% of the time? Dumping their tech bags and having to put it somewhere else.

>>53273721
i don't know anything about the FA but from a purely TA perspective: it's in a major downtrend for a long fucking time now and if you were so inclined to actually try to go long, you should have gotten in this past Wednesday. maybe consider putting an order in at that closing price and hope it pulls back for you, or at a minimum look for a break of the high of the previous day to enter.

im bored and willing to look at some other stocks for awhile if you guys want. just don't give me any volatile low float penny stock garbage. i can look at it but obviously that sort of stuff doesn't really follow TA as much as it's just "nothing/no volume until news comes out and then it moves a million percent overnight" shit.

>>53273854
useless without a thermometer
we all know the water is luke warm with ice dumped in right before pic

>>53270925
its still some nice extra money. theres no jobs for people like me so this is an option. cryptos too if it wasn't for that gay ass kyc that makes them unusable. no one has physical bills anymore and im not getting a id card just to give to some glowies that do who knows what with it and leave it on some abandoned aws for hackers to take and sell

>>53271399
a lot of people live paycheck to paycheck because of this. take financial advice from normies only if you want to stay poor

>>53273940
Just finished 15 min

>>53271399
All the wealthiest people I know are also the cheapest mfs I've ever met

>>53273939
thanks anon, what's your opinion on nvda then?

>>53272184
Obviously long bonds as they have dropped the most.

>>53273909
>How much money is long only
looks like S3 estimates about $1t average short interest throughout last year. compare that with the market capitalization of the US market at about $45t and it's not very much.

How to make emotional gains though

>>53274035
get to know wealthier people
it's literally harder to save money than it is to make money

WTF WE'RE CLOSED MONDAY?!?!

>>53274116
Due to aids.

>>53274094
estrogen supplements?

>>53274057
i don't have "opinions" in this case, it's just objective analysis of hard data. that said: it looks like it's in an uptrend channel, the higher high followed by higher low is bullish. momentum is bullish, trend is bullish. obviously that area around $190-200ish is a point of contention, so if i were long i might consider at least selling half around that zone. earliest i'd be willing to get in would be the cross over the EMA(50), or later if you wanted further confirmation with momentum. technically all of the indicators are bullish though and if it can break through that resistance ceiling and hold beyond it that'd be even more bullish.

you could also potentially wait for a break of that resistance and then a pullback to it, and if that reverses get in. that's typically a very safe trading strategy but you don't get it that often.

>>53274075
>$1 trillion in short interest isn't very much
lol wut bro? Clearly it's enough to make the market shit itself for an entire year

>>53274171
But anon, didn't you know that NVDA is a trash company and their flippin p/e ratio is too high?? Lol no one even uses Nvidia products

>>53274032
Why are you doing ice baths in the middle of the day?

>>53274204
>p/e ratio is too high

Good.

>>53274222
It's the morning for me
When else would I do them?

we're finally here. The "big crash"

>BTC pumping/euphoria
>bull faggots cheering the end of inflation and spy 500
>VIX 1 year low
>DXY crushed for weeks

This is when it happens. The setup is absolutely palatable. On Thursday/Friday I bought 40k worth of JNK 90 puts for march expiry. These will easily 5x. God help you if you unironically think the worst is behind us

>>53274177
>short sellers caused this bear market
retard take bro, sorry

>>53274255
We priced in though.

>>53274116
it's a celebration

>>53274230
>no you missed out on the NEW PARADIGM!!!11

>>53274255
adding this one to my "bobo posting" folder to laugh at when we're back in golden bull run mode.

>>53274281
that webm. i don't get it.

>>53274255
oh okay so dumps come after pumps
I had it backwards
no wonder nobody subscribed to my youtube channel

>>53271399
Go for it but I would say get a hobby that gets you out of the house. Like I lived more frugal when all I did was sit at home and play my vidya but I was super miserable.
>reunite with old friend
>he gets me into scuba diving
>attracted a wife
>now a tech diver that goes cave diving in mexico & rebreather diving in FL with group of friends
Its expensive but I'm fucking way more happy in life.

>>53274292

you're not doing shit because you are down 24%

>>53274320
it's not meant for you to get

>>53274345
there used to be times where you faggots were calling for the crash every week and then it'd go higher and bobos would get liquidated and seethe. you deserve to suffer and you WILL suffer when we get back to that again. and i will revel in it. you'll never hear the end of it. because you'll keep shorting even when we go bull mode again, which we will, like we always have.

>>53274371
piece of shit bagholders I hate then so much

>>53274371

Sorry your IQ is literally too low to comprehend going both long and short at different times. I was long last week, and Thursday/Friday i went net short. You don't perform the way I perform being a perma bull or bear

pic from last week. Stay low IQ

BTC is setting up to take a massive dump. My BITF short is gonna print so hard Tuesday lmao

>>53274255
based, I went even deeper out the money on HYG

>>53271603
> NFLX
Not this shit again.

>>53274553
lmao, honestly I wouldn't surprised if they end up doing ok.

>>53274409
im not talking about you, retard. im talking about bobos. you seem to forget all of the times in the past where bobos called for a crash and were wrong. over, and over, and over again.

now this one time they got a win and they think the SPY will go to $0 unironically or some shit. bobos are dumb and euphoric because they finally got a win but they will learn. i want bobos to suffer and they will. if you're not one of the people always calling for a crash im not talking about you.

>>53274171
very nice, I'll nab some calls on it then

We live uh "cheap" aka we're doing good why fuck it up with useless shat? so more money goes towards the things that mater (retirement, "shat happens" planning, and good fun cause what's the point of life if you don't enjoy it?). Very low stress life cause of it.

Guys this is a BBC+ friendly general lets all get along here
Bears
Bulls
Crabs
plus other market animals

>>53274270
This will be fun, go ahead and explain how short selling, especially with leverage, doesn't drive down prices.

>>53274622
Nobody ever talks about us aardvarks. The second there’s a sink hole im slurpin, but that’s IT.

>>53274553
My gut says theyre going to get heemed again, might be a good slurp.

>>53274588
do you have any other argument other than "we've been red for a bit it's time to go 2020 bull run again"

>>53274113
Saving money makes you wealthier, literally every dollar you save makes you wealthier. I am a cheap mother fucker, save a dime everywhere I can. Unironically boomers are right about avocado toast.

>>53273685
Buy Chinese stocks directly

The US market multiple of 17x is too high, even before coming estimate cuts. Chinese estimates are set to increase as the economy reopens.

>>53274673
Investing in china is full on retarded.

>>53274673
I don't believe it's possible to buy chink stocks directly, only through holding companies, however I have exposure through my far east fund regardless.

BTC will be 18k on Tuesday. PT of 6k by EOY.

>>53274629
i didn't make the claim that it doesn't impact price, nor do i argue with people acting in bad faith so believe what you want i guess

>>53274670
BULLLLLSHIIIIT
if you can't afford $78 lunches, you're not making enough and you still won't be after downgrading to $53 lunches cause boomers told you to

>>53274622
>lets all get along

>>53274726
>Nah nah boo boo!
Wow got me I guess lol

>>53274615
Judging by this post even Africa is developing its own chatbots.

>>53274622
>friendly general lets all get along here
Its not enough that I should profit, I need others to suffer.

>>53274622
I view myself as more of a pigeon, although some might call me dovish.

>>53274622
This, we need to end the bitter divisions in the BBC+ community.

>>53274746
Uh well why would you be blowing 78 on lunch anyway? Hell 100 x 12 months x 3.30% for 30 years gets you over 60,500 waiting for you at the end of it. Not bad considering this is money you were gonna just toss down the drain.

>>53271603
Discover just won a JD Power award and I’ve been spending a shit load of money on my Discover card

>>53274841
Best cashback program.

>>53274839
>Uh well why would you be blowing 78 on lunch anyway?
you suggesting I dine and dash?
every day?
I'd run out of restaurants
no pun intended

>>53274839
you realize how long time that is? no way to know if you even are alive to spend that

>>53274447
Ima take a massive dump on your mommas chest nigga lmfaooo goteem

>>53274670
minmaxing autists are soulless bug people. there's a difference between being cheap and thrifty

>>53274670
No one ever made it by saving dollars. You make it by increasing your income by a lot, not by saving pennies on a wagecuck salary.

new
>>53269227
>>53269227
>>53269227

>>53274866
Not even close.

>>53274976
>/gme/
Kys baggie

Don't fall for it
https://boards.4channel.org/biz/thread/53275025https://boards.4channel.org/biz/thread/53275025https://boards.4channel.org/biz/thread/5327502553275025
>>53275025
here it is

>>53274670
Gotta spend it where it matters.

>>53271623
I once agreed with you, but the Fed and government will not let the economy crash. Central planning and retarded plebs make for a perfect command economy and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Fundamentals go out the window when everything is contrived. Not to mention there is no country or even group of countries to replace the American hegemony.

>>53270849
>>53270912
MFs, if a nuke went off Canada, the US and every nation in Europe in Europe would massively expand their oil reserves and throw money at the MIC like mad. Every citizen would panic buy just about anything they could be it a personal luxury or a necessity, inflation would be extreme