/biz/ - Business & Finance

"We" do but we don't care. A few years at ~5% isn't the end of the world by any means. It's completely priced in, no one was expecting muh massive pivot already, I don't think anyone cares. Let rates stay at natural levels for a year or three and then they can come down in time for the GBR.

Book related would be a good start - all about the history of interest rates

>>53136082
Many reasons. It just depends on the individual. Some believe the Fed will break something and necessitate a pivot. Some think that inflation will plummet so quickly that the inflation rate will be at or below 2%. Combine all this with growing national debt and a historical trend of peak rates going down and the longer term writing is on the wall

He said they won't be cut, but how much will they be raised?

>>53136112
you should care. Recession

>>53136082
Everyone knows that a recession is coming and Powell will be forced to lower. It's such a fricken joke because inflation is already at ~2% annualized when you look at the month to month data and not the worthless year over year data. It must be true what they say about the rich fleecing the poor first with booms then with busts. Powell is making the bust intentionally.

>>53137815
Buy while it's dumping, not while it's pumping. That's why people don't care. Better buy now, S&P500 to ATH is still a +25% even if it goes down in the meantime, nobody knows the bottom. Better keep averaging down than never buying.

If they pivot inflation will return to 2021 levels
If they don't the entire debt based economy will lead to half of Americans becoming financially insolvent

The first choice is less worse so they will pick their poison

the reality is that public servants will keep inflation to reduce magically their debt

IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN LIKE THIS

>>53137908
I agree with this view. The problem is most Americans are already insolvent whether or not the pivot goes through, a considerable number are on their second or third credit lines. It'll be an interesting year for sure. The culmination of whatever this strange stretch of events is leading to will have immense implications any way.

>>53136112
>"We" do but we don't care.
Yeah just keep buying and lose all your saving before you can buy the bottom.

>>53138074
margerine called

>>53138054
Its a death spiral either way. People can't afford increasing prices however they're in too much debt for rates to correct it.

Its a catch 22 of our MMT system

>>53136082
He doesn't have the stones to crash us and his handlers will eventually force a pivot to prevent nation level defaults. Interest rates if hiked high enough for long enough will both lower the total available tax revenue and eat way too much into what revenue does come through.
Now obviously they have introduced the $600 transaction tax on the plebs to try and force keeping rates higher, but that's going to backfire when they find out the plebs arent actually hiding $600 transactions in their venmo accounts and there's no real additional revenue to work with. Expect that hard pivot a few months following tax season when they realize the coffers are still empty and they can't draw blood from a stone.

His job is to literally make everyone as poor as possible.
He has to cut rates eventually.
When he does, do you really think he'll give everyone ample forward guidance.

>>53138646
He won't because in order to prevent retail from having too much money he literally needs them to miss the bottom so they don't profit.

>>53138752
Pretty much. Powell will do everything in his power to prevent anyone from making it. Because making it means less people working. And less people working means companies actually having to compete for workerd, and we can't have it.

>>53136112
awww shiet he wrote a new book
Devil Take the Hindmost was great