/biz/ - Business & Finance

>buy a house
>down payment

That isn't buying a house. That is taking out a 30 year loan from a Jew bank.

>>53116243
i could buy a house with cash if i moved to chudville.

>>53116237
Wait until there is blood in the streets, a real firesale. Before buying a home. The Great Dieoff is occurring and RE is going to get fucked. Then again, there are millions of illegals being brought in to take the houses and jobs of the good goys and girls who took their mRNA soft-kill shots. Don’t consider it work, just get out there and have fun.

>>53116237
You're not buying shit because no one is selling to you

>>53117131
what makes you say that?

Have noticed a lot of new listings and new constructions coming to market lately, plus price reductions and houses on market 90+ days.

Anyone that bought in the last 1-2 years is probably now underwater, if not close. Am definitely waiting another 6-12 months, can wait as long as necessary, but will wait for blood and pain from householders.

>>53117207
Because no one is selling houses unless they absolutely need to move, it's new construction, or a dead boomers estate. No one is trading a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage. I know it doesn't sound like a big difference to you but on a loan the size of a mortgage it roughly doubles the payment.

>>53116237
wait 6-12 months, extend monthly if the monthly % change is still negative by then

>>53116237
Zoomed don’t want suburban houses. They want pod apartments in the middle of walkable big cities so they can be surrounded by chaotic hustle-and-bustle.

Houses are Ponzi schemes that only work until demand collapses, which will happen in our lifetime

This is me. Got 25 years left on my 2.7% fixed mortgage and I am never paying it off early. Just inflating my way out of debt and living comfy as fuck. Never was or never is an investment. Great schools, no niggers, big yard, big trees. You zoomer fucks thought electing socialists would make your life easier, but all you did was transfer more of your buying power to us boomers. Cope and seethe and fucking die kids.

>>53117318
Zoomer genetic dead ends want the pods but asian/indian immigrants breed and will continue to buy suburban houses

>>53117289
i'm an accountant, i'm acutely aware of how interest rates cause the payments (and total repayment) to balloon. there are homes on market but you'd have to be retarded to pay $2k/mo for something that was $1.2k/mo just 3 years ago -- which is why i'm sitting and waiting for another 1-2 years.

>>53116237
>i refuse to pay for something that has doubled in price over the past 3 years

So you wouldn't have bought BTC prior to 2017, got it.

>>53117289
Sadly this.
It will take a while for the housing market to re-set. The prices will come down a little. We will see is home prices trend below inflation for several years until they are in line with wages. So oddly, buying a house might be a bad mid-term investment... If you don't rent it out. But rents look to be softening too, so buying a rental might also be a bad short-term investment.

I am very interested in new build homes. They still have massive margins for new builds. They can still cut the prices of new builds by a ton. The builders really don't want to and are paying for closing costs and giving "free" upgrades instead. At some point, one of the builders might cut all new build prices by 50k or more and bring the whole market with them.

>>53116250
If you can wfh chudville is probably your best bet for home ownership, I refuse to pay like 2.5x my home value in interest to the bankman

If you don't own a house then it's not worth. I'd use that money to stock up on eth and bit instead. maybe buy a house when the bull run hits. Don't be a homeless rat though.

>>53117364
That's an emotional argument not an economic one. The prices are up because people are paying those prices, it's that simple. You can wait for 2 or 3 years but I can almost guarantee you'll throw more money away in rent in that time than you will 'save' by waiting for prices to come down if they even come down. And no one can predict rates 2 or 3 years from now

>>53116237
Do not do it. You'll still save money even if you keep renting for 2 more years.

>>53117336
Brown people are also genetic dead ends. Antibiotics have allowed very sick people to survive childhood. Its getting worse without the 50% cutoff

>>53120224
>That's an emotional argument not an economic one.

pic related, guess the pattern. normalniggers and normalnigger news sources love to focus on $ value. $ value is irrelevant, you should be looking at number of homes sold as a predictor for where price will be heading.

>>53120020
We do NOT have margin to cut significantly, that is crazy. The volatility of materials has made building in the last 24-36month like throwing darts at a board in the dark. A ton of builders were forced to build 750k USD homes and sell them for 500-600k because of pre-construction agreements prior to insane material costs.
Also we haven't stopped printing money! Credit is a little tighter but there is so much fucking cash out here, people don't want to sell anything. Some people as always are forced to sell, but people don't want the cash

>>53120381
>>53120224
here's the source: https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-11-2022-summary-2022-12-21.pdf

>>53120224
>And no one can predict rates 2 or 3 years from now
I can predict a shortage of capital because boomer pensioners will konsum wealth that wont be replenished with new labor

>>53117289
This

>>53117261
>Anyone that bought in the last 1-2 years is probably now underwater

So? They're all sitting on rates below 3.5%. They can afford the payments with ease and have zero incentive to sell and move. You're not going to get a crash when there are no sellers.

>>53116237
I'll buy a house at the bottom once normies have capitulated and prices are down 50-75%

>>53120381
also here's a more expanded view. the number of existing home sales per month are down by nearly 50%. prices are slow to respond due to how illiquid real estate is.

>>53120432
that didn't even happen in 2008. I'm sure there will be a price drop, but it's not going to be even 2008 levels

>>53120387
Materials are about 25% of the price of a typical new home. Labor around 10%. The volatility doesnt increase costs, it just oscilates a bit. Developed land is about 25% and gross profit (not net) is 40%.
Labor includes architects, lawyers and assorted people that pull permits.

>>53120468
Household debt levels are much higher today, higher than Japan at the peak of their bubble in many Western countries, and we're experiencing the fastest rate hikes ever. On top of that central banks won't be able to print money because of inflation.

This is much worse than 2008.

>>53120424
Cope. Prices will drop because supply wont be bought at current prices. New construction will lower prices, those with homes will cope that they can't lose if they never sell, amirite?

>>53120507
>Household debt levels are much higher today,

Its not though. It was actually much worse in 2008

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N

>>53120468
It can and will go much lower, historically speaking. https://youtu.be/-YWNipc3K80

>>53120535
Check the rest of the world.

Canada, Australia, NZ, etc are all higher than Japan.

>>53120583
it's not going 50%. this is why you doomers stay poor, you always think the bottom is a little deeper until thing reverse and you miss your change. keep waiting two more weeks though

>>53120424
Boomers with real estate investments are sitting on 2.5-3.5% loans with their primary home paid off and hundreds of thousands of dollars in savings/other assets, they is no pressure for them to sell.
If they're a poor boomer and its their primary home then they also have no reason to lose their current mortgage and buy a new property at 6.5%+
>>53120381
>in 2-4 years we will have a price correction
in the mean time interest rates will climbing upwards and beyond 10%+ effectively neutralizing any price drops if you're doing the standard 20% down and not outright paying cash.

>>53120600
It can and has before many times.

And this is the biggest bubble ever.

>>53120617
>in the mean time interest rates will climbing upwards and beyond 10%+ effectively neutralizing any price drops

i want you to think about what you wrote. here's a bit hint: prices are supported by credit, considering most buyers (even now) are not cash buyers.

>>53120600
You underestimate how leveraged to the tits all these real estate bros are. They just kept taking mortgage after mortgage with the intention of paying it using rent. What happens when rent has to come down and they owe the bank money because the value of the property has declined so rapidly?

>>53116237
>i refuse to pay for something that has doubled in price over the past 3 years
LINK 0.3$ waiting room?

I could outright buy 5 acres of property on an already established street and then take out a loan to build, but god I want prices on everything to go lower, the land and the materials to built (and I'm sure starting out a home journey being a build would be a fucking mess)

>>53116237
Thinking of doing so in may, but I would have to ask for a lower than listing price.

>>53120663
>Money supply increased by 40% in 2-year period
>FOMC overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.
>5.5 expected to be announced within the next 3 months
What's going to happen anon?

keep waiting idiot.
Its a commodity and necessity.
Its nothing like stocks or crypto.
It only goes up since there are more people needing a house than speculation.

You guys are really dumb if you think its overpriced.

>>53117261
except me than could almost double my investment and bought it in 2021.

>>53120825
it's obvious that you're pulling from unfamiliar concepts and repeating words without comprehending what it means or how it ties together, much like a woman trying to discuss topics more advanced than pop culture phenomena.

residential mortgage qualifications are based on debt to income ratios. residential mortgage qualifications drive single family home pricing as cash buyers (existing homeowners) are in the minority. mortgage rate increases cannot sustain elevated prices on the long run average.

>>53117364
youre an accountant and are not aware of the 60% more dollars in the market in this past 3 years? jfc these kids are fucking retarded. "accountant" and cant even have 2 variables in the fucking brain at the same time.

>>53120868
>It only goes up since there are more people needing a house than speculation.
This isnt correct, zoomers are a smaller generation than boomers and its much worse in europe. There will be a surplus, hundreds of millions will die of old age within 20 years

>>53120683
they are debt maxers taking advantage of inflation. It is the only way to win.

>>53120914
>30 year fixed conventional
>$2400/yr property tax
>$1000/yr home insurance

>$400000 home
>$80000 downpayment
>$320000 loan
>7% interest
>$2412 monthly payment

>$362500 home
>$72500 downpayment
>8% interest
>$2411 monthly payment

>$331000 home
>$66200
>$264800 loan
>9% interest
>$2414 monthly payment

that's just a ~19% price adjustment for 2 points on rates, are you implying there's going to be a much harsher price correction in the near future?

>>53121112
>are you implying there's going to be a much harsher price correction in the near future?

i don't think there will be a dump but i think prices are just now beginning to react to rate hikes. and if you believe jerome, the fed won't let up until they see an uptick in unemployment, meaning banks will become more conservative with lending standards and normgroids in general, even those with secure jobs, will be fearful and much less likely to purchase in the short term, even if they have the means to do so.

>>53120416
Yeah bro just keep waiting you won't get even more proced out I promise. Le big house crash is coming in two more weeks.

In Denmark, the housing market has come to a complete standstill. No one is buying, so now sellers aren't listing.

Those who insist on selling either try to sell at old prices or at a pityful 5-10% discount.

I'm afraid nothing will happen and that the RE market in Denmark will remain frozen until rates are lowered again or until unemployment starts rising. Whichever comes first.

>>53120387
This anon knows. Lumber salesmen I know are worried. They are a lot less busy then they were 6 months ago because production builders are slowing down waiting to see what the interest rates are doing. Customs from rich fuckers are still popular. Like boomers, builders are still trying to resist cutting their margins but it's envitable. We have to wait for the reality to set in for sellers, materials, and builders that they have to cut costs because nobody is going to pay the same price for homes as when the interest rates were 3%.

>>53116237
Unironically closing on my first home next month. Was a rentcuck until the land nigger got the bright idea he could get rich by selling. On the upside, I found a house that's twice the size with a nice yard for the same price the land nigger is selling his for. Downside, I literally looked at hundreds of houses online, toured close to 20 homes. They were all ridiculously overpriced shitboxes. I thought my realtor was going to kill me. Things were looking beyond dismal. I was facing either moving back home (hell no) or paying rent somewhere that would be more than a mortgage. Ended up finding a gem after some serious digging. I know I'm getting cucked by a 7.25% interest rate until I can refinance under a more reasonable rate but the other options were worse. These are the only people buying right now.

>>53116237
>>53116250
>>53116250
There are still plenty of deals in many culturally diverse walkable cities.

>>53120424
Rent cucks are paying just as much or more for their 1 bedroom per month as home chads are for 4k square foot newer homes. Homeowners are not sweating it, only over leveraged property investors.

>>53116237
I had the same sentiment and at this point I've saved enough to buy a house in cash, but still don't want to buy something that feels overvalued.

>>53121563
>*blasts musik on dey sail foam (speeka foam only)*

>>53121564
idk what backwards chudville shithole you live in but a 1200-1400 square foot """starter home""" is still considerably more expensive (PITI) than the average 1 bedroom apartment in my area.

>>53121318
Do you deny obvious demographic trends? Like, boomers have to die and their houses become a huge bonus supply

>>53116237
Wait five years

>>53116250
>if i moved to chudville.
You don't have to anon, Chicago, toledo and Detroit have lots of diversity and also cheap housing.

You like diversity so much, why don't you move there?

>>53116237
Need to get my new job, hopefully by summer. If I stay with it at least until next year that will let me apply for a 0% interest loan too

>>53122698
What do you think people just stopped having children after the boomers? House prices will never crash. They have been printing money non stop. These are now the house prices and will be even higher when you finally capitulate and buy one for more than you would pay now.

>>53121539
how bad is your credit that you're getting a 7.25% rate?

>>53121078

>>53122896
>What do you think people just stopped having children after the boomers
Actually yes, thats the point. The zoomer generation is much smaller than boomers.

>>53116243
shut the fuck up retard

>>53120652
Wouldn't that graph say alot more about the value of the dollar itself than the the value of the houses?
Like the value of the dollar is less than half what it was in 2019, so ofcourse housing prices doubled. That doesn't mean the actual VALUE of the house is reaching a bubble point.

>>53123360
except marriage rates are declining and more women are working

I sold in a hot market and moved to a rust belt town with good internet.
Feels good to be a 30 year old boomer.

>>53120957

jesus christ, that means we have to wait another 20 years to own a home

>>53121210
>if you believe Jerome
He hasn't been lying about rate hikes so far. They also want to push unemployment to 4.5-5%

>>53124555
Only? Great, I thought I never would! Just like getting to retire

>>53120424
There absolutely are sellers. Not all of them are boomers who live in the home they bought/own.

First of all, anyone with an adjustable rate mortgage is obliterated. That’s 10% of homeowners whose monthly payments have nearly doubled in the last year- with more rate hikes coming. FORECLOSED.

Over 5,600 boomers die everyday (and rising). Of the living, Many of them have multiple houses and are downsizing, and their kids don’t want or can’t afford their McMansions. SELL IT.

Everyday, more of the living boomers move into senior housing communities. Any Silent Gen who isn’t already in a nursing home, either will be in the next 5 years, or will be dead. SELL IT.

Boomers ain’t got shit for retirement. They’re the most financially unprepared generation for retirement, something like 2/3 have less than $300k saved/invested for an increasing life expectancy. They’ll have to go back to work (ha yeah right) or sell their second homes- Or downsize their primary homes. I know many who have done so over the past few years. SELL IT.

Aging Boomer landlords with no retirement also tend to get sick of the hassle of being a landlord. ‘Why deal with the headache when I can sell for a nice sum and live the rest of my days drinking beer and fishing?’ SELL IT.

Also, there has been a TON of institutional buying of RE the last few years. Many of them are now underwater on their (illiquid) investments, when they could now sell for a small loss and move into short-term treasuries and get a higher yield with lower fees/liability/and 0 maintenance. Institutions chase liquid returns with low risk. They will follow the alpha, which is not in RE for the foreseeable future. SELL IT.

>>53126261
>10% of homeowners have an ARM

only 10% of APPLICATIONS in 2022 were ARMs, because a small percentage of buyers are betting on rates being lower than 6% when their rates reset 5 years from now.

40% of homes are paid off completely, and of the remaining 60%, just about everyone has a rate below 5%. there were 3-4x as many home buyers in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2022. every one of those buyers has a rate below 3.5%.

refinance applications in 2020 and 2021 were more than double what they were from 2014-2019. all those people have rates below 3.5%

people who bought between 2009-2012 got their properties for pennies and have them paid off by now.

there is NOTHING indicating a dumping of properties on the market, all indicators are pointing towards supply being reduced (which increases price)

october 2020 had 6.8 million existing home sales. october 2022 had 3.6 million and the number has fallen for 9 consecutive months.

just another dumbass zoomer with zero quantitative data or knowledge of the market who is priced out and coping

>>53116237
>has doubled in price over the past 3 years
Except it hasn't sorry you live in a shithole with scam markets

>>53120524
Thats not cope its am articulation of reality. I have a 3.5% rate but if i go under water i dont care. Firstly because i wasnt planning in selling for 30 years anyways. More pertinetly I sure as shit wont sell when mortgages rates are double which would mean paying double for a homw thats 30% less.

Now its somewhat academic for me because even with the drop this year my home is wortht double what i paid 6 years ago (which is retarded when you think about it) but i had always gone im with the expectation that there would come a time id be underwater.

>>53123226
Thats the thing right the average 30 year is 7.59 if your credit score is 720. If your above 800 its 6%

>>53124524
you should have held onto the home and rented it out to losers.

i've got 2 rentals out west, first one was 125k (2012 purchase) making 20k/year. second one was 325k (2017 purchase), making 31k/year.

now i live for free on my 10 acres in the midwest thanks to dumbasses wagies out west.

>>53123911
>Real house prices
>Inflation lol wut?
Anon, "real" means it's indexed to inflation. Shit's fucked. It says more about ZIRP central bank policies.

>>53116237
Hahahaha, absolutely not. You'd be buying the top. The U.S. housing market is going to shit the bed hard this year and that's not even taking into consideration what's going to happen in China.

>>53121539
Hahaha my interest rate is 45% of yours. Buying 4 years ago was a good call

>>53116237
Buy a house with crypto and the transaction is fast and cheap.
Many merchants are accepting crypto as payments these days, for instance Kingston.

>>53116237

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the personal savings of Americans sits at $520 billion as of November 2022, marking a substantial drop from the $4.85 trillion in 2020

all of the people wo havent spent all of their savings because muh inflation and muh rates and fomo

>>53116237
If ypu can buy one, I am planning to get myself a house in Dubai soon, a merchant called Your Place is accepting crypto payments too which is just convenient for me.

>>53124413
Low marriage rates mean even less kids, instead you get roommates. Single women dont buy or rent entire homes fit for a family with 4 rooms or so.

>>53116250
just move to serbia

>>53116237
>Another mutt crying about his plywood plaster box.

>>53123741
>Shut the fuck up, retard.
Fixed that for you, illiterate.

>>53124555
No, its a continuos process that alreasy started last year. Basically more boomers are dying than their replacements are coming in line. This also causes a deficit of workers that will get worse year after year until it peaks 15 years from now, by year 20 boomers wont physically exist.

>>53124661
I think you faggots cry more about renters than rents care about rent.
Unironically seething.
We get it, you're a trust fund.

>>53117336
>asian/indian immigrants breed
they actually breed the least only reason they got such high populations in their home countries was because they had such plentiful land and no birth control but look what happened after the introduction of it

>>53126261
>>53127328
>coping
Seems like you faggots are doing that.
Pray tell, boomer fuck.
Why would I spent a quarter to half a million on a ply wood plaster box when I can live lime a king someplace else?
I can see housing going up but that's because you faggots think housing is a gold mine for some weird reason.

>>53120468
the entire economy was bailed out in 2008 what happens when the money printer won't turn on in the bear market? we actually didn't even have a proper recession play out since they were so quick to give into the stimulus

>>53127975
The concept of entire economies being bailed out is asinine, just like that of entire economies being subsidised. Bailouts and subsidies are transfers of wealth from a sector to another, the economy as a whole cant self-bailout or self-subsidize

>>53127932
seething

>>53123741
> shu- shut the fuck up retard I'm not in debt I'll be a homeowner by 60 alright?

>>53120683
This. Revaluation->forced auction because real estate owner can't pay adjusted rates because the economy is down and tenants won't pay rent
>>53121078
You think this goes only in one direction, right? Because in your livetime it only went up, right?
Money is a tool of bankers to put chains on you. You have to work for it, they create it. If they want to, they crash the economy by hyperdeflation. Pay attention to picrel.

>>53117131
>old people retiring and cannot keep paying mortgage have to sell their house while in fear if they wait it'll be so cheap they won't be able to outlive the money

Big tech millenial datalord
Sales guy here raking in the big google bucks by opening a MacBook on my bed for 3hr a day. Seeking asylum from commiefornia, me and my sexy blond petite wife went searchin yonder out west seeking cheaper pastures to exploit.

Bought a beautiful 3br 3ba brick house in Denver May of 2021. Denver is a little too white for me, but my neighborhood is centrally located and still “hip” during these early stages of gentrification. Cafes, breweries, weed, graffiti everywhere. I walk on cracked sidewalks, through derelict alleys, by busted windows to get to my artisanal coffee shop. I like being around, hipsters, goth girls, weirdos, hippies and Mexicans. Got the house for $800K. Since I bought it it’s gone up to almost a million on Zillow. Feels bad to be the gentrifier, but it also feels good to be 29 and rich. I derive so much joy watching the tweakers in my alley run around haggling stripped bike parts like twisted new age tribal villagers at 3:30AM. It just doesn’t get old. Neither does my 3.2% interest rate. Unfortunately I am getting older.

Anyways right now the interest rate is shit. Let the market crash, because it will.

>>53121386
thx for the update from pigland danebro.

>>53116237
I’m only offering people $50-$100k less than the current asking price.
Eventually, I’ll get someone who is willing to sell at a loss because they’re not getting any other offers.