/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53105307
In the sense that it will make the fake economy of overly endebted people and zombie companies feel pain, yes. In terms of controlling long term inflation, it probably won't tighten enough.

>>53105331
Do you think inflation is here to stay?

>>53105307
Feeling tight huh? The target is 2% we're just getting started

>>53105340
It's going to rubberband up and down for a while
As soon as the fed eases rates I expect it to bounce up again
The fed will tighten again and it will snap back down
The economy is fundamentally broken so this will continue to happen for the foreseeable future

Sooner or later people will flock to something seen as a safe haven from hyperinflation and the uncertainty of owning certain equities
Crypto or precious metals seem like the obvious choices

>>53105371
Truflation is at least 3 months ahead of the cpi numbers the fed is using brainlet.

>>53105340
Inflation was always here retard. The only way to stop inflation is to stop fractional reserves and get on something like the gold standard again.

>>53105340
Yes. We may see some low numbers for a while but it will be back.

>>53105384
>Crypto or precious metals seem like the obvious choices
The fed is making cbdc this year I think. Do you think that has always been the plan?

>>53105307
>muh truflation
>muh heckin overtightenerino
>phone poster

>>53105307
Should be down to 2 percent by June 1st. Complete nothingburger.

>>53105507
See
>>53105405
I’m suspect (((they))) are doing it on purpose

>>53105307

there are arguments for structural inflation

>shitty energy/housing policy (not enough energy/housing, causing perpetual under supply)
>boomer death/retirements + "non working" people putting increased demand pressure on wages and increasing labor costs/salaries
>end of globalization as seen with Ukraine war and China's covid policy

but deflationista boomers drown out any opposing opinion

>>53105449
Gold standard is not happening. The Fed is raising rates to give themselves room for the mother of all money printing, it really has nothing to do with inflation. The financial system is a mess due to all the manipulation of the markets.

>>53105405
That has nothing to do with what I said
>you

>>53105583
>The Fed is raising rates to give themselves room for the mother of all money printing
Citation needed

>>53105482
I heard Powell comment on the CBDC and he didn't sound too enthusiastic. You gotta understand what makes the US financial markets number one in the world. It's the perception of stability, lawfulness and respect of property rights. A CBDC is about control and repression and would take away the edge the US currently enjoys.

>>53105307
Interest rates only affect future inflation at the same time as the FED is looking at lagging indicators to determine interest rates. They also can't really do it any other way because then they lose credibility, which in turn would cause inflation. It is more or less built into the system that they will over tighten.

In 12 months everyone will wish that they have a lot of cash.

>>53105564
Boomers retiring is deflationary. If the Fed didn't print money we would have deflation, now they just ended printing too much.

>>53105798
2 more weeks

>>53105371
It's about trends, retard. Once it peaks, it will trend down

>>53105331
>In terms of controlling long term inflation, it probably won't tighten enough.
But inflation is in fact dropping.

>>53105307
that can't be TRUinflation. real inflation is somewhere around 10- 13%

>>53105307
NO PUSSY NO WORK
NO WORK NO TAXES

>>53105564
>shitty energy/housing policy
How about putting all the stupid homeless people that don't want to help themselves on a large cargo ship and sink them into the ocean. Also, deport and stop letting in all the illegals. Housing problem solved.

>>53105307
Truecopechartsrates
kek no

I love how bears are now ignoring every obvious sign that the markets have bottomed out, just like how bulls ignored obvious top signs in 2021. Lmao.

It's better for them to over tighten so they have more room to cut.

>>53106103
i bet they sober up real fast when they find out they about to be killed in mass.

>>53105307
Fed policy isn't based on 'truflation', idiot.

>>53105384
>ed eases rates I expect it to bounce up again
>The fed will tighten again and it will snap back down
you expect wrong kid. the fed has already laid out the plan. its not going to be the 1970s all over again. rates are going up and staying steady.

>>53106031
Truflation uses Chainlink oracles, so it's not going to be accurate.

>>53105482
>The fed is making cbdc this year I think
You think wrong bucko

>>53106213
holy shit bullish for LINKIES

>>53105307
> over tighten
They want a minimized middle class, so no they won't over tighten because to go too far would only be if people noticed what was going on. Crushing any asset holders is the objective.

>>53105340
a big mac will never be 4.50 again, mark my word.

>Hahahaha higher for longer!!!
Love how bears were saying the Fed is a bunch of liars until their on-paper policy matched up with the current retarded bear narrative. See you fags in a few months when you're proven totally wrong lol

>>53105583
it's not true, they're reducing their balance sheet, just not as fast as they said they would

>>53106310
that's not how reducing inflation works

>>53105307
Real dairy milk retails for around $8gal. So, no. Inflation is still out of control.

>>53105307
Think of the fed like a v8 rwd in winter conditions with all weather tires on a highway. They start drifting to the right and then slam on the gas to straighten out and end up in the ditch in the median.

>>53105384
Crypto is worthless and useless as a store of value. It’s a cool technology but all it does is help the energy companies make a profit.

truflation just aggregates data from globohomo sources and labels it as (((truthful data))). you can't trust the government cpi but you can definitely trust our data goy! until truflation is pulling dairy data from the Amish it's just another form of data propaganda.

>>53105815
Lol wtf how is that deflationary when they spend their bagholded Dollar while not producing

>>53105340
5% inflation is the new 2% inflation.

>>53107273
forgot pic

>>53105815
No, that's actually inflationary. Deflation during crashes and inflation during booms is only because of consumer spending response to the availability of credit. Increased productivity relative to population is deflationary, decreased productivity relative to population is inflationary. Having less working people and an aging population is an inflationary trend, permanent supply shortages and outsized demand by non-producing retirees.

>>53105564
>>53105815

both of you are correct but if I knew which forces overwhelm the others I could make a trillion in the bond market

but nobody really knows

>>53107357
Less people in the workforce and more people in retirement is not deflationary, you have stable demand but decreased supply of goods.

>>53107058
Wrong
It’s the best system to funnel wealth.

>>53107296
1) It's not 5%
2) Truflation rate doesn't match the scale of the CPI all items average data (6 Truflation == 7.1 actual)
You may ignore Truflation from now on anyways. Everyone is frontrunning at this point and a dump is imminent due to normies doing that. Whales will fist you hard.
What matters now are unemployment rates and loans.

>>53107327
aging population - reduced aggregate consumer demand - deflation

you consume less when in a nursing home than when you get your first mortgage, buying a car or trying to raise kids

>>53107413
You are making this far too complicated, yes there is a decrease in their demand as they age but they stop producing entirely. Retirees are 100% non-productive, but they still eat and need materials to live. Older people produce nothing and they still consume, this pushes it towards inflation. More retirees is always inflationary when isolated to itself, anytime this trend gets bucked its been because of more powerful deflationary forces like industrialization which boosts productivity dramatically.

>enter thread
>ctrl+f
>”base effect” not found
/biz/ is retarded, as always

>>53106725
>just not as fast as they said they would
why not fast?

>>53105384
I fear this as well. I just hope people catch on quicker than they have in the past. Its why every anon needs to speak to normans non stop about the financial future of the country and what those in charge are doing to their money. They still eat up the lies that everything right now is being caused only by corporate greed and supply chain issues. They need to be awoken to the reality that this is being caused on purpose by the government to cover up their illicit payments to both themselves and their jewish friends.

>>53106310
Deflation and reducing inflation are different. Should have taken high school calculus, brainlet.

>>53105982
>But inflation is in fact dropping.

>>53105307

they already have. they should have stopped at 4% FFR and now deflation is probably coming in 1-2 years when the deleveraging of a highly leveraged economy occurs.

>>53107058
>but all it does is help the energy companies make a profit
That's who controls the world retard.

>>53105340
Bought food lately?

>>53107413
>than when you get your first mortgage, buying a car or trying to raise kids
Millenials and Zoomers aren't doing any of these things though. Boomers, being the primary wealth holders, are still the drivers of the market.

>>53108497
>They need to be awoken to the reality that this is being caused on purpose by the government
And then what?

>>53105384
Crypto dies as soon as a big solar flare hit Earth. Silver/gold, not.have fun with your wallet.

>>53111961
sausage fingers typed this. you'll lost your precious at the first sign of societal collapse when they show up at your door.

>>53111437
This. It's called Leviathan for a reason. Sad but true. In nature predators are also necessary tocreate a stable ecosystem. Sometimes the wolf starves, sometimes the deer gets eaten by the wolf. If there's no wolf then the forest dies.

>>53112019
I'm ready pal and while not extremely fit, not overweight. Have fun with your electricity dependent asset.

>>53105307
Their explicit goal is to overtighten. I don't know what people don't understand about higher for longer. They let inflation run hot. Now they will let deflation go wild until we get bailouts again

>>53105307
OBVIOUSLY /thread

>>53105340
yes

>overtighten
No such thing. We should've been doing this all along.

> house price rises from 200k to 500k
> next year rises from 500k to 510k
waow hustle and bustle no cap, inflation solved

>>53106252
OHHH LINKIIIIIIIIESSS. linkie linkie pinkies in my stinkies

>>53112241
are you fucking retarded
if a solar flare happens you're probably dead or 100% losing all your wealth

>>53111961
Have fun with privacy wallets though or get ripped

the fed has already over tightened as determined by the bond market
they'll probably stay too tight until something breaks, then show up with more free money

>>53105307
They already did, lol.

>>53105541
>(((they)))
you mean to say that because its the year AFTER the super shemitah which makes it a "jubilee" year that (((they))) are going to manifest the kabbalistic storybook memes IRL and "release all debts" through massive default waves and/or huge devaluation of fiat currencies?

>>53105384
>As soon as the fed eases rates I expect it to bounce up again
why should it?

>>53112363
>Now they will let deflation go wild
they can't do this because the debt is unserveaceble under deflation and they cannot unload their balance sheet too much or became insolvent

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2018/wil181130

>>53107393
>What matters now are unemployment rates and loans
why?

>>53105307
Their goal is not to fix the economy or make it stable, its to keep people chasing their product: the dollar. Once you understand this, their moves seem quite trivial and easy to predict. Its the entire reason they tanked everything in the first place. Every zoomer and their grandmother was balls deep in investments, and the economy was chugging along nicely. At that rate you would have had a huge chunk of the work force rich enough to retire before they started working. Jerome Powell avoided a catastrophe rather skillfully. That catastrophe was you and others becoming free. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pays LINK fudders here kek.

>>53116182
>LINK
It's a fund raising token for a shitcoin price checking service. Stop looking at the real world through its prism. The rest of what you said fits pretty well, but stop trying to squish your floored erc20 token into the calculus.

>>53116305
New ID because i left wifi.
Whatever you say anon. I dont have much of a horse in this race, i already made it.

>>53107442
We are on the cusp of the 4th industrial revolution. A.I. and automation alone will be huge boons to productivity.

>>53116182
ok what is their goal now? To keep defalting?

>>53119398
Create an economic recession/depression and make the dollar as strong as possible to make it more appealing to hold for international trade and to drive retail investors out of the market and into soup kitchens. They need the dollar to be a golden means of storing wealth so that nations are less likely to take up Russia or China on their offers of a new world reserve currency. They will bankrupt every last one of you if they must to make this happen. Once Russia and China ease up on the idea of ditching the dollar Jerome Powell will chill the fuck out and let you make money again. Not the guy you replied to btw

>>53105564
The largest generation boomers starting to retire and die off is is going to cause asset prices to fall. A set resource like land only perpetually increases in value as population grows. Property value is a large part of western economies. On top of that people are the most important resources a economy has so having a decreasing supply of people drives bargaining power to those people. They know this which is why western governments are desperately trying to flood their markets with migrants. But from what I've read the boomer die off will be faster than they can move people into the west.

>>53119836
>They need the dollar to be a golden means of storing wealth
I tought this too anon. So no bull run in 2 years for btc?

>>53112241
Lose weight, lardass
People that dont excercise are foul

>>53119985
Depends on who crumbles first: the US or the Russian-Chinese international trade alliance(yet to be completed, named, or even fully conceived). Its anyones game, but in the end the losers are the people who pay bills.

>>53121003

Well, considering Chinese are dying in masses from Covid and Russia can't stop fucking it's own ass in Ukraine, my money is on America. There is literally no alternate to viable global leadership (including the clown idea of a multipolar world).