/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53052259
hurray!

>>53052259

Nope. Some thread on GLP said bitcoin will hit 8k and eth will hit 500 by march 2023. Bottom not in yet.

>>53052333
Trips of truth.
GLP is /pol/ for boomers though. I put more faith in Ron Walker making the same prediction.

>>53052259
Return to mean is 14k or less

Fran Finney literally has Hal's private keys and his Twitter password.

Buckle up buttercup we're curing ALS for based Hal by crashing the entire market

>>53052259
Good job retard. Under 16k by new years eve, screenshot this.

>>53052259
It's one of those rare times where all bottom indicators are lining up.
Might still get a 20-30% spook dump from here, but it's looking decent.

>>53052408
>bottom indicator
>might dump 20-30%
fuck u, cant even read the indicator

>>53052392
Oh jeez. His wife is such a fucking idiot too. She’s got greta thunberg tier ideas.

>>53052428
I need to give my view neutral-based so that I don't jinx the market
In truth, I am 80% confident the bottom is in, but you never know, so yeah I write contradicting statements in hopes that the universe will reward me.

>>53052408
>where all bottom indicators are lining up
for crypto in isolation i agree with you we have onchain indicators, PA memelines, max fud and recent capitulation going on
but crypto doenst exist in a vacuum the biggest bear case is still that the regular markets go down hard again and this drags all assets down
or are you also sure that btc has totally decoupled from other markets

in either scenario it is close and if it goes down another leg dont sell for you are at very real risk of selling the bottom then

>>53052463

Bottom not in yet. That GLP thread said Bitcoin will hit 8k and eth will hit 500 next year around march. The boomers never lie....

>>53052497
I'm leaning towards stocks bottoming here as well.
Think inflation will come down faster than most expect.
Nasdaq, alot of tech/innovative stocks are down quite a lot.
The entirety of 2022 has been non-stop bearish narrative since Q1, and it's still going.
The fed has never risen rates this fast, with this much debt, I don't think they can keep doing it.

Crypto has definitely not decoupled from macro, if macro dumps, crypto will dump.

>>53052259
You're not far off irregardless

>>53052572
well rates and fed fud has probably peaked
but in these downturns stocks still have an earnings compression to undergo
all their guidance is still way too optimistic and will be revised down hard next year as the reality of the recession is acknowledged, its hard to see how this goes down without the s&p to lose another 20-30% from here, then in the chaos you get the fed pivot and crypto moving up first and hardest

but until then i see some more pain left and yes i was in since the june capitulation where i called it too early in retrospect but stuck now, too scared to sell as i have no bearish conviction

>>53052680
Honestly the best thing would probably be 50% cash, but greed overtakes you.
So much is pointing towards a bottom, and that last 'uncertainty/black swan/20-30% dump' event is just not worth waiting for imo, better to position in now, and if it happens just wait it out.

>>53052712
well back then in june i made the calculation for myself that waiting it out with 50% in cash wasnt really worth it from a risk perspective if i was wrong in my call and it didnt go lower and i would be forced to chase it higher, i am not that greedy/poor
but the recent ftx disaster really damaged the confidence in the market

but regardless in making these calls you need to see the opposing side too so say yes another dump is possible but is it really worth it to wait it out and at what price point do you say nope and have to go back in and what % did you then just lost
as shit as the macro picture is all capitulations except this years may event where good buying moments

90% is not enough come back when you have 99%

>>53052789
>>53052712
I staked 5k linkies and have 2k in my wallet. Should I dump 2k and buy the dip? It really doesn’t look good for chainlink at all.

>>53052921
everyone on twitter is calling for the apocalypse for a while now
i am not paying much attention there, as they were quite wrong for most of the market with some really low iq lines
a quick browse tell me this guy is calling for 1.5 link, definitely not waiting around for that

>>53052259
Ok let me know your confidence level when we hit 12k

>>53052921
upon closer examination whenever some twatter guy is making some outlandish claims like being super bearish right now deep in the cryptowinter
go back and see what they where saying in the start of the year and see if that lends them any credibility
it really is buy high sell low, bullish during the breakdown, bearish near the bottom

>>53052259
based on what?

>>53053077
you buy when there is blood in the streets and people are shrieking its over

right now there is blood in the streets and virtually everyone is shrieking it is over and crypto is going way lower

When the crowd says do something, you do the opposite. Contrary to bobo anons the sentiment in crypto is overwhelmingly bearish even after an 85% drop. This is close to if not the bottom

>>53053269
Punani index

>>53052259

>>53052572
>alot of tech/innovative stocks are down quite a lot.
Exactly, macro. I'm not buying anything crypto until I stop making money on SQQQ (short TQQQ). At least 3 weeks.

>>53053077
>calling for the apocalypse
Calling for a typical 85% BTC drop to 12K is not the apocalypse. Its in line with historical performance on BTC and speculative assets in general. I am expecting it. Also, don't forget about DCG/Genesis.

>>53052259
i completely agree. now to accumulate the top performing gems. I call payment projects like bnb and xpress, ai stock like chatGPT, and some layer zeros and ones.

>>53052259
bobros don't listen to him
bottom is 10k, a seer told me

>short on btc and sol, solana is literally going to $5 kek
>take profits from short into matic bnb and holoride
>hold, make it

>>53053084
10k looming

>>53052259
Kk

>>53052259
Actual confidence is 10%

>>53053825

there's been blood and shrieking the last 4 months and stocks are still dumping

i aint catching no falling knife

>>53056569
ICPjeets and fudding solana are like 5 and 6 even tho they won't admitting to holding the scam coin that got them rekt bad.

Don't get in holoride, it's not a project for retards like you

>>53056757
I'm not about to jump into an open fire kek

>>53055746
how much have you made so far?

>>53056765
acting like he wouldn't get hard if someone buys your shitcoin and gives it better awareness.. haha

>>53052572
>The entirety of 2022 has been non-stop bearish narrative since Q1, and it's still going.
You're concentrating too much on the time spent, and not enough on actual inflation. Construction materials are still up 3x. Gas is still up 2x. Housing is still 2x since 2020 in many areas. For stocks to go on a magical rip would just exacerbate these issues and do the opposite of fighting inflation. Now if the job market were booming and salaries went 3x, this would all be fine and dandy. The issue is that these stonk gains are just from the money printer, and the 18 quintilion brown people we import has had the opposite effect and fucked salary growth. So:
>nuke the economy into the pisser to fix inflation
>rebuild the American dream to a boomer economy (good luck lol)

Pick one. And all my rant is to say is that crypto will make an additional leg down if an when the index funds make another plunge

>>53052572
What's your crypto scenario for 2023 and 2024?

>>53056932
nah jeet.. it ain't one of the regular shits you see mentioned everywhere.

It's one of the few projects that has managed to keep up with building throughout the entire bear market and they be nailing it hard

>>53052259
It's obvious the bull market is closer than expected, I think it's time to begin stacking potential tokens like KSM, ORE & NEAR

>>53057645
this comment made me pretty bearish

>>53057678
You can be fucking bearish, I don't care, because it's a mindset, but if only you can look into those token's utility, I believe you'll be super bullish on them

>>53056976
>>53057020

>Construction materials up 3x
>Gas is up 3x
>Housing is up 2x (it's really 1.5x)
I expect these to come down faster than expected

>stonk gains are just from money printer
agreed, though the inflation adjusted PE ratio of SP500 has returned back to near covid March 2020 levels. This tells me that stonks are 'fairly' priced around these levels.
My thesis is that most people are expecting 2023 to be a difficult year for stonks and the economy. The general sentiment is that rates will remain high, inflation will persist, and that you should have a 'nest' of cash to survive the upcoming recession.
With the belief that markets tend move in ways that fuck the majority of people, the max pain scenario imo is for stonks to start slowly grinding up here, while economic data remains pessimistic. By the time economic data normalizes, stonks will be up 20-30% from these levels.

If anyone disagrees, please shoot at me.

My main fear is that I underestimate how long these bear cycles take to play out. Also I have never experienced long-drawn out bear markets before, so I lack this in experience.

From my view, markets tend to bottom when all the 'speculative/greedy' money has been cleansed, and only diamond/long-term holders are left.

>>53058078
The main difference between now and 1930s, 1970s, 2000s is that information today flows much much faster.

Thus, i expect market cycles to play out faster, since information is digested at a much faster pace. Also market participants can sell their entire portfolio in a click of a button, whereas before, you had to contact your stock broker/there was a lot more friction when buying/selling.

>>53056976
>Construction materials are still up 3x.
Have you checked lumber futures recently? They are BELOW 2019 prices now, cratered full-throttle.
>Gas is still up 2x.
Same as above, at least in Europe.

>Housing is still 2x since 2020 in many areas
Because it takes years for the trough to arrive. Interest rates impact liquid assets the soonest (crypto and tech, then rest of stocks) and illiquid assets later. Check instead how fast and hard the actual purchases and mortgage subscriptions have fallen.

I believe Q1 2023 will see a bit of green. Just DCA and don't dump it all in a single trade. You won't catch the absolute bottom but you will be buying MANY generational bottoms.

>>53058199
Yeah you're right! It's noticeable how inflation has already come down quite a bit, yet the market is still 'pessimistic' and not really 'buying' into it.
Good sign, as it shows the market is depressed and acting irrational.

>Because it takes years for the trough to arrive. Interest rates impact liquid assets the soonest (crypto and tech, then rest of stocks) and illiquid assets later. Check instead how fast and hard the actual purchases and mortgage subscriptions have fallen.
Can you point me towards where you find this information? (how to track actual purchases and mortgage suscriptions?)

>>53052259
we made it, frens!

>>53052333
>Some thread on GLP said
Are you mentally handicapped? If they said you'd suck people's wieners, are you going to go out and suck on wieners? Lmao?

>>53052259
Well it was a harsh journey but it looks like it's over now. Cheers!

>>53058306
My apologies good gentlemen of the thread, I did not in fact take the action my name implied and it was merely a holdover from a previous, much less functional thread

>>53052921
lmao
> link

>>53052259
Everyone and their mom left so it's a good time to start DCA. ORE, ATOM, MATIN and EGLD.

>>53052259
>flash crashes to 9k
heh, nothing personal kid.

>>53052259
Are people still believing in this shit of a crypto?

How much btc do I need to buy a hundred thousand aire

>>53059009
>EGLD
This has been the strongest shits so far, it's significantly improved, disrupting the payment sector by making web3payments fucking sweet, hike integrating metaverse, privacy and decentralization in their crypto payment gateway and other services.

>>53062042

I'd have been a retard if there was no crypto. Shut the mf mouth

>>53052259
And you're gonna miss it while thinking it's getting to the bottom. Kek

>>53058306
Fuck off indians

>>53062042
Hey pajeet, the latest launched staking, metabonding increased cash back will get dicks hard but if you ain't ready to have a better life just fuck off.

>>53052259
Not yet, I still have my buy order for BTC at 10K and also its where I plan to load up on ETH, DOT and ALBT for the next cycle.
So early 2023, we should experience another sharp drop in the market.

>>53060442
Its never going there, we are at the bottom already fag

>>53062722
DOT is really down, but with the development on it, it should see a new ATH, and for ALBT its a quality gem with a lowcap, so I think you got a nice list

>>53062722
ALBT became one of my favorite token after their partnership with Ore ID

>>53052259
Btc bottoms at 11k in 2023