[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


View post   

File: 6 KB, 1200x800, Flag_of_Japan.svg.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52944804 No.52944804 [Reply] [Original]

For those that are not familiar with tradfi terms:
Japan today surprised absolutely everyone by aknowledging that Fed tightening from US is fuckin their economy
By revising its yield-curve-control policy they are hinting that US fed will indeed raise and hold the rates high(as powell has already said)
>Ok so whats new then?
If the most dovish central bank is tightening then Its almost sure that Europe/Uk will go harder,Which will tank the Dxy(like japan did today) But on the same time tanking global stocks due to high interest rates worldwide
>So what now?
Vix hasnt spiked over 40 despite dumping whole year.We are about to witness actual dumping ahead of us but with dxy no longer being a safe heaven where do the money go?
>Gold
Check the gold chart after the Jpy announcement.Basically the trade that everyone has been talking for over a year is finally happening.Gold and silver going up while stocks/dxy down
>Ok so why Bitcoin could pump if stocks will plummet?
Because the recession/actual dump is here.The gold trade is overcrowded and many will flee to BTC which due to crypto related events(Luna,Ftx) has already had most of its damage done and not much sell pressure left(nowhere near close as tradfi)
Assuming BTC pumps it will be bullish confirming its usecase as "digital gold".
Altcoins would follow Bitcoin but would not expect a crazy outperformance based on global economy status.This is not a new bull run but basically a bounce based on actual usecase
Last but not least,Fed wont back down.They will raise the rates as promised and hold till economy breaks.Cutting rates works very different that tightening.They could for example cut 100-200bps in just 1 meeting and give huge breathing to the markets.They know what they are doing unironically
Godspeed anons

>> No.52944841

To add up note already how futures are down over 1%while btc is up like 2%
It has started

>> No.52944860

>>52944804
>>52944841
BTC is up due to solely DXY algos understanding the big impact it has.
Wait until real markets open and BTC will be catapulted down

>> No.52944864

>>52944804
No

>> No.52944869

>>52944860
kek
watch and learn

>> No.52944875

>>52944860
*solely DXY algos trading, not understanding the big impact it has

>> No.52944899

>>52944804
Bitcoin isn't really seen as a safe haven. It's seen as a utility for people who are either criminals, or living in/travelling from shitholes

>> No.52944913

>>52944804
But btc is correlated with the stock market. Why would stocks dying not mean btc goes to like 5k? Why would things suddenly change? Idk anon

>> No.52944926

>>52944860
It would have at least been trading around 16400 and not pumping though
Watch for decorrelation memes spawning on our feed when stocks are plummeting and BTC is trading over 17k in 12-15 hours from now

>> No.52944949

>>52944913
Btc is mostly correlated with Dxy rather than stock market and very few get this
So now you have Dxy being no longer a safe heaven+stock market actually dumping(harder than before this year)
Money insta flows to gold/silver and then the next solution is BTC,especially now thats its really cheap

>> No.52944970

>>52944949
btc has .998 r^2 with lawn chairs

>> No.52944978

>>52944949
I don't expect global tightening would significantly decrease the value of USD. The value of USD is that it's tied to the largest economy with the most active military. Interest rates are secondary to that. And global QT doesn't imply that Powell would stop QT. At worst the dollar would have a brief dip in value.

>> No.52944992

Gold is already fading. DXY down will 100% rally US stocks. Foreign governments are playing chicken with the Fed at this point, trying to raise rates until the Fed pivots to neutral or dovish so the US stops trying to export its inflation abroad with higher rates.

>> No.52944993

I am not a low time frame trader but please remind me the last time when futures were red 1% and Btc was up 3%
Its even up like 1% ever since this post happened
I am telling you its happening

>> No.52944997

>>52944978
the value of USD is tied to the demand for interest repayment and existential threat of insolvency

>> No.52944999

>>52944970
Infinite supply of lawn chairs

>> No.52945002

>>52944926
Anyone that says "Dxy being no longer a safe heaven" >>52944949 clearly DOES NOT understand the impact of this decision.

The fact you think the move plays out in 2 hours just shows what an immature retard you are that will lose all his money due to being extremely retarded.

>> No.52945024

>>52945002
Yeah bears have gone full retard after this year. All indicators point to markets having more upside than downside.

>> No.52945036

>>52944992
Japan fed intervened to save nikei's ass(for today).Europe/Us sleeping just wait
>>52945002
>US in recession
>Dollar will somehow go up
Kek

>> No.52945038

>>52944804
Interesting post. Why is the Fed so intent on crashing the economy? I don't believe it's just inflation as some of the causes of inflation are out of their control and there's already signs of easing. Why crash the global economy?

>> No.52945056

>flee to BTC for security
lol, lmao even
You were decent up to that point

>> No.52945059

>>52945036
>All world economies in recession
>BTC will somehow go up

Also, yes. Cash is King during recessions you absolute degenerate retard

>> No.52945067

>>52945038
Unironically "Great Reseting"
Its not some crazy conspiracy,just the rich get richer and the poor poorer like all these years
They break the markets to reset the economy
When the shitshow is over we will have another up only run like in 2010s
Thing is u cant know how low it can actually go

>> No.52945090

>>52945038
They aren't. It's all a self fulfilling prophecy. They'll go neutral or dovish "just in time" and everyone will slap each other on the back for achieving a softish landing and the markets will moon and bears will cry and wonder how they couldn't see it coming.

>> No.52945091

>>52944804
Bend over alts. Not spread that hole for daddy bitcoin. Good boys. Incoming pump.

>> No.52945097

>>52945002
>Japan Central Bank pivots in the opposite direction
>Stocks sell on fears of "higher for longer" rates
>DXY decreases because Yen rate increases strengthens Yen attractiveness from higher yields
>but then Eurollar banks pull back on lending, sensing more risk
>dollar shortage
>DXY spikes
>long term rates decrease because of recession/disinflation
>fed pivots

>> No.52945101

>>52945024
This dude is literally pointing that stocks will plummet and dxy up not that all markets will go up
Redditor/Twitterfag spotted
>>52945067
U would save urself frrom the embarrasment if u just checked the last recession dxy chart

>> No.52945110

I hope you all listened to me
>>50144805

>> No.52945122

>>52944804
What I don't understand about your post is how is gold and silver going up but people are going to flea because of market saturation. That doesn't make any sense. People are not going to flea gold. Aren't goldfags really insular and hold forever?

>> No.52945132

>>52945122
Gold is the safest heaven during recessions for centuries why would they flee gold?Maybe u misunderstood
Gold is going up

>> No.52945154
File: 528 KB, 828x573, A97F2A7C-A31F-4430-8479-086A36AF1E02.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945154

Mover erased
Two more weeks

>> No.52945187

>>52944804
>Japan news are actually
for fuck sake. after 2005 or so, japan is nothing but a massive retarded island with no future.

>> No.52945190

>>52944992
Great post. Today I learned why the minor central banks around the world basically have to mimic the Federal Reserve actions.

>> No.52945235

>>52944804
The biggest amount of copium you will ever see

>> No.52945237

>>52944804
Pure baggie copium, only gold & silver will prevail.

>> No.52945238
File: 25 KB, 320x304, 1411015259919.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945238

>>52945187
Some of us still believe in Japan.

>> No.52945240

>>52944869
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Heyo, lookout below!

>> No.52945246
File: 43 KB, 550x535, 1592674100126.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945246

Bank of Japan debasing Yen by buying bonds to raise rates to strengthen Yen
uh

>> No.52945249
File: 816 KB, 1125x1465, 794160B0-0062-4FEA-9394-87D673D6B770.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945249

>>52944804
>bitcoin
Bitfucks are so fucking out of the loop it’s ridiculous

>> No.52945262
File: 98 KB, 804x933, 1619798231038.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945262

>>52944804
Im massively bullish on Japan because all of my favorite crypto projects come from it. XOR just released fearless wallet and it's still maintaining high and strong despite the fucking bears. I think that, in the future, it could really become the new ETH or Chainlink, even. Makoto Takemiya is a beast and everything soramitsu related sets a new standard for crypto

>> No.52945265
File: 52 KB, 600x580, BAF49655-07BB-4738-9A0E-B6896460D085.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52945265

>>52945067
>he thinks the great reset has anything to do with BTC apart from trying to kill it

>> No.52945266

>>52944804
There will be a resistance point if the regulators poke their noses too deep into the crypto space, I expect to see much more resistance when it comes to privacy

>> No.52945275

>>52944804

japan is the most conservative financial market in the world. they are not going to do anything related to crypto

>> No.52945286

>>52945038
High inflation ends empires. When people can’t afford basic necessities and the government can’t afford to subsidize it without printing even more money and making inflation worse, things spiral out of control really fast. They can not and will not allow that to happen, even if it means they risk sending the economy into a brutal recession

>> No.52945290

>>52944869
The melt up… my body is ready

>> No.52945306

>>52944993
Oh is it really happening?

>> No.52945308

>>52944999
Supply of lawn chairs backed by laws of physics

>> No.52945326

>>52945036
Credit liquidity drying up should cause deflation in the prices. You know, like in the 80s. It's the only way to combat inflation. You think the Fed is going to give up reserve currency status without a fight?

>> No.52945515

gold and silver already dumb so your theory is bullshit now fuck off

>> No.52945525

>By revising its yield-curve-control policy they are hinting that US fed will indeed raise and hold the rates high(as powell has already said)

Anyone with a brain could have told you rates weren't going adown for a while, the markets thinking the dot plot stays under 5 is pure copium

>> No.52945567

>>52945515
dumped* I was just thinking of how dumb you are

>> No.52945581

>>52945525
What happened to "the Fed is a bunch of liars" though?? That's what everyone was saying about rate hikes, why are we going to trust them now on the dot plot?

>> No.52945629

>>52944804
>Altcoins would follow Bitcoin but would not expect a crazy outperformance based on global economy status.
100% Wrong, but everything else is right

>> No.52945910

>>52945122
>>52945132
>flea
>heaven
learn engrish

>> No.52946199

>>52944804
>LEEEEEROOOOYY JEEEEENNNKIIIIINNNSS!

>> No.52946236

>>52945038
>Why crash the global economy
Because those with the power to create suffering have to flex.

>> No.52946477

HEY FAGGOTS, use the daily charts. You're welcome.

>> No.52946504

Gold won’t pump over this and neither will BTC. Everyone wants cash when it’s scary

>> No.52946517

>>52944804
I'M INTERPRETING THE DOT

>> No.52946529

>>52945286
Or builds them, no nazi Germany without hyperinflation. My body is ready.

>> No.52946545

>>52945581
people say a lot of things. the writing has always been on the wall.

>> No.52946677

>>52945090
oy vey
>>52945038
neocommunism: no electricity boogaloo

>> No.52946705

>>52946504
they won't when cash becomes scary

>> No.52946893

>>52944913
But it is not
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/cryptocurrency-correlation-study/?timeframe=90days&asset1=SP500&asset2=BTC#correlationtable

>> No.52948211

>>52945038
The economy is insolvent; it had to crash sometime and that time is nigh. Also, this is how they move us to CBDCs

>> No.52948253

>>52944804
Be jap.
Worried about the state of world Put all my money into internet tokens on Chinese servers
> nope

>> No.52948287

>>52944997
this. If people stop repaying, either from inability or apathy, the flywheel gets stopped dead.

>> No.52948320

>>52946517
Do not interpret the dot.

>> No.52948406

pls pump my white pussy full of your cum bull

>> No.52948423

>>52945262
Literaru hu

>> No.52948655

>>52945581
The fed has tried warning bulltards all year. Bagholders will get what they deserve

>> No.52948979

>>52945110
Interesting post, thanks.

>> No.52949003
File: 6 KB, 480x480, monero-symbol-on-white-480.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52949003

So, do I buy monero then?

>> No.52949624

>>52944804
why has this entire thread run about and nobody checked OPs market adolf ID

now as to the content, yes this is what we are hoping for, for those of us that bought in early but do know and note that btc/ crypto = digital gold is still very much in the air
we have no idea to know if it will play out

however said that, if it doesnt its another -50% from here and we dca some more
but if it does you can get priced out of your buy in stack very quickly, we could very well see the start of the next real bull and never get to these prices again
so unless you are poor or greedy the risk reward is towards buying here

>> No.52949676

>0.25% to 0.5%
>HOLY SHIT
>HAPPENING

>> No.52950241

>>52949676
That 0.25% becomes more significant when it affects trillions - I repeat, trillions - in currency terms.

>> No.52950433

>>52950241
not to mention the 250% debt to gdp that just doubled in its service cost
well at least and for now, anybody that disregards a doubling in these type of things is a retard whose opinion can be insta disregarded

>> No.52951538

>>52944804
I don't think this is good for any asset in the short term. More profit with "zero risk" means riskier assets become less desirable. Unless people have lost trust in central bank this is bearish for everything in the short term

>> No.52951622

>>52945286
This. It was about time the economy gets a hair cut. Go to your local mall and count the businesses that you think should even exist. Then look up consultation companies and do the same. Same for manufacturing. Everything basically. It's like more than half of the economy exists only because of money printing. Tightening is the only solution. Sucks for a lot of people in the short term, but hopefully after we get back to reality wagies will find a way to add real sustainable value

>> No.52951945

>>52950241
>-50% against the USD
>this is nothing

>+0.25%
>HOLY SHIT HAPPENING

>> No.52952878

>>52951945
Japanese excess savings fuel the worlds financial markets through carry trade.

German excess savings get recycled through the EU into building roads in Eastern Europe.

Chinese excess savings used to be recycled into US bonds and now are mostly used to build infrastructure in Africa.

Oil countries excess savings mostly went into western real estate and stock markets but that is less uniform.

So less japanese savings getting out = lower asset prices everywhere else.

>> No.52952927

>>52944804
Were Americans stupid enough to think other countries would lay down and take ass fuckings forever? Is there really no backup plan at all?
Doesn't look like it.

>> No.52952999

>>52944804
this assumes the fed won’t pause rates. They don’t have to raise them nor lower them but they can pause rates….holding them for a long period of time

>> No.52953002

Crypto won't have another bullrun til 2024

>> No.52953087

>>52952927
This is Japan, a vassal state trying to not end up under the bus.
Germany is next followed by UK and France.

>> No.52953143

>>52953002
Onboarding solutions are doing quite well. Take a look at the numbers ORE ID registered this year. I believe that 2023 will be quite unpredictable

>> No.52953166
File: 5 KB, 165x126, 1660816047452406.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52953166

>>52951538
It's not about losing trust in central banks. It's more about realizing that crypto is the future of finance. The earlier, the better

>> No.52953717

>>52949003
You can buy stablecoins. If you're concerned about privacy, you can use Railway to keep a private wallet balance instead of wasting your time with Monero which is outdated

>> No.52953756
File: 47 KB, 720x533, 60f5ea5116ac1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
52953756

>>52948211
There will be serious resistance against the adoption of CBDC; particularly due to the compromise it may have on users' privacy rights.

>> No.52953793

>>52953166
The earlier we have simplified wallet creation experience, the better

>> No.52953841

>>52951622

Lol everyone's going to starve and rape and murder if what you just said happens

>> No.52953854

>>52945038
US is at the end of its 250 year lifespan, same as every empire before it. But they're still on top, so crashing the world economy hurts everyone else more, buying them a couple more decades.

>> No.52954029

>>52953841
Or masturbate and seek public assistance. I'd take that bet.

>> No.52954164

>>52945038
Maybe they saw the writings on the wall, realized that the Pax Americana is nearing its expiration date, and decided to frontrun the collapse while everyone is unprepared so that the Burgers get to escape relatively intact while the rest of the world burns.

>> No.52954745

>>52944804
Not buying back but at 10.5k.
If it goes up from here it's good because I already have bought at 15k