/biz/ - Business & Finance

bobos tongue my anus

Early baker edition

It's going to 0

Spy to 350

Is the Federal Reserve pivot in the room with us right now anon? Listen anon, i'm going to need you to quit staring at the charts on your phone in your bedroom and answer the question, ok. This is not a productive conversation.

went from being down 25% ytd last month to now only being down 10%, almost there... If my nvda pds pays off I'll only be down 5%

What are you niggers investing in today?

>>52881789
8 pack of Bavaria, a nice Italian wine, and I bought a band saw for myself for Christmas.

>>52881789
I'm investing in myself via some hard weight lifting

>>52881789
sold some deep OTM 0dte calls to pay for mashed potatoes, brussels sprouts, and carrots as i've been assigned side dishes for friends christmas.

>I've been the only vocal bear for the last month
>everyone is bearish now

Buying some 12/30 calls now for quad witching and Hanukkah. I'll sell my calls on the next scam pump that fucks the tourist bears and then go long may 2023 puts

Why haven't lumber prices gone down more? I need to buy some sanded plywood.

>>52881759
Cope

You didn't overthink it, did you anon?

>>52881759
Here you go

>>52881838
hecking meme lines

I like how bears keep changing the definition of what a "pivot" is, as if these rate hikes haven't been absolute weak-sauce and rates aren't still historically low. Oh yeah cool, the Fed totally isn't positioning itself to be more dovish by lowering the hike amount from 75 bps to 50 bps, and flat out saying that they don't want to crush the markets with high interest rates.

Love how "the Fed is a bunch of fucking liars!" until it supports your retarded bear narrative - let's see if they stick to "keeping rates """"high""" through 2025" lmfao

>>52881844
why are pivotards like this?

>>52881844
who cares? It's not like people are buying puts that expire in 2025

>>52881784
Fed pivot went out for cigarettes. Said he'd be back in 2025.
>>52881844
>Reddit spacing
Don't care.

To all the retarded bulls screaming “why is is going down!!!” did you ever ask yourself why it was going up?

NONONONONONOO

These days hurt so much more when you are in 6 figure hell.

>>52881789
Shorting oil, and buying 2DTE butterflies like I do every Thursday, with half the money I made from cashing out my SOXL puts

>>52881844
>as if these rate hikes haven't been absolute weak-sauce
this graphic was made in October, prior to the further increases
we are literally in the sharpest rate hiking cycle in history - there has been no other time when interest rates have been hiked faster
>weak sauce
lol.
you are retarded. I think you are also the anon who keeps insisting that no new information was published yesterday, which you are also wrong, and retarded about.
You have to be a troll.

>>52881789
cashed in my 12/23 399 puts and went all in MRNA puts for April

>>52881789
ENB, TD, BNS

>>52881699
>I appreciate the discussion
kewl
>I just strongly disagree with you
no problem anon
Here's an example, pic related. It's a credit spread on SPY calls I just pulled up that somewhat matches what Sosnoff teaches his followers to sell. So let's do a rough expected value calculation. Delta on the short leg is 0.3085 and the max profit is $142. 1 minus 0.3085 is 0.6915 so multiply that by 142 and you get $98.193. The max loss is $358. Multiply that by 0.3085, the probability of the option expiring in the money and you get $110.443. If you do this trade 1000 times you will lose on average $12.25 per trade. That's the negative expected value I was talking about. It is this way on every option on every chain today and forever. Bear in mind the market maker's calculation will be much more precise than this. It doesn't matter how many options you sell on what different strikes and underlying stocks, the result in the long term will always be negative for you. Unless you have some market timing edge in which case carry on
>>52881849
indeed

KEK MY LIFE INTO PIECES

What buy? SOXL? SPY?

>>52881881
Why, did you start with 7?

>>52881818
I’ve been bearish since last January firmly on team Bobo and don’t see anything changing until next fall maybe depending on how bad the recession will be. I was fully expecting the recession to hit this year but people are just now racking up consoomer debt and don’t realize how much higher their minimum monthly payments will be on their variable rate debt. I didn’t think people would still be spending on travel and experiences but also realized for big states this was actually the first year they didn’t have any wuflu restrictions and people were splurging.

I don’t trust the Hanukkah pump you think there will be, I think that ship sailed and Jpow giving that dovish speech and Q&A at brookings was the signal for them to pump their end of year rally and dump on retail after the CPI caught the them fomo’ing in.

dan niles is a seller here

KEK BAGGIES!!!

>>52881898
lmao there literally was no new information yesterday and you faggots absolutely are struggling to prove that there was

LMAO

>>52881918
the thing is that you're looking at an asset with 17% IV - they don't even look to trade the asset / it doesn't match the parameters of their strategy if IV isn't below 30, and ideally above 60
they wouldn't take on this trade, as it wouldn't make sense to do so

>>52881844
Adapt or die. That is a basic rule of nature.

>>52881930
wtf does that even mean

>>52881867
50 bps was "good for equities". Inflation had a three month downtrend. Powell said he'd make a decision to slow rate hikes based on favorable december cpi data. the data was more than favorable. fomc confirmed 50 bps. bear dump because powell was too lazy to revise his speech and refused to acknowledge inflationary decline. yesterday was bullshit

So, do I hold, or sell?

I took profit Tuesday premarket

>>52881968
Based time machine chad

>>52881960
Lol, lmao even.

bulls cannot cope with the fact that they literally bought the top lmao

>>52881956
it means i'm so fucked all i can do is laugh about it

>Oil

>market begs for only a 50 bps
>Chad Pow obliges
>market still dumps
I don't get it.

>>52881789
VTNR
STNE
ASTL
NMM
SGML
SBSW
PBR-A
SND
UAN
SOHU
VET

All good names that I'm following for a possible swing into January. I'll probably buy a basket of the whole set soon. Just a little of everything. Ideally we touch 3800 first.

>>52881967
Good enough to post, good enough to sell. Selling looks like it's slow down for today too.

HOLY SHIT I'M PIVOOOOOTING!!!!

WE'RE ALL GOING TO GET OUR LAMBOS MY FELLOW APES!!!!

JUST TWO MORE WEEKS UNTIL THE FED PIVOTS BACK TO EASING!!!!!

>>52881952
>DURRR BUT POWELL SAID TERMINAL RATE MAY GO ABOVE 5% SOME WEEKS AGO!!!
there are 12 voting members. Powell is one vote. If all 12 members now say the same thing as Powell, it matters. It is new information.
The information for 2024 and 2025 is new.
How long the rate will be above 5% is also new.
Higher for longer. This is new information. The market had some forewarning of it, but it is still new information.
Think about it like this..
The whole market expects Walmart (for whatever reason) to shit the bed on earnings - they've been warned beforehand that the earnings will be bad by the CFO
Walmart earnings come out, they're even worse than what people warned
>OMG BUT NO NEW INFORMATION CAME OUT!!!
this is you - even with warnings, when the information becomes cemented / official, or if the information is worse than was expected (which it was here!!) then the market will move, as it has not fully priced it in
this is what happened
you are retarded
you have had 10 different people point out to you that you're retarded, and you keep doubling down, keep pointing to an article where Powell said that the terminal rate may need to be above 5%
You do not understand that the market wants certainty. The market moves on certainty - it doesn't want to be unsure
We got certainty yesterday with the dot plot and SEP

>>52881982
not my post but this is a good summary >>52881750

MOTHERFUCKING
WHOA BLACK BETTY

>>52881960
Higher terminal rate and said no cuts for next year bud

kek, pivotards, kek, baggies, lmao even lol

>>52881944
It's gonna be like last year. Violent crab till January and then fall off a cliff

>>52881982
stop paying attention to the front line 50 vs 75bps
this is what they do to trick retail goyim
>look here
>don't look over there
what matters is the summary of economic projections, the dot plot, how high interest rates will get, and for how long will they stay high
see
>>52882003

>>52881979
You one of those /smg/ All Stars that was down 17% and didn't sell so then he was down 40% and he sold and then came on here like how did this happen

Who else /green/ here

>>52881898
you're taking the bait too hard anon, move on
enjoy your profits on your shorts when the market actually prices in the move - it still hasn't.

>>52881960
Cope cope cope

N

>>52881954
Find a trade they would make then do the EV calculation on that. The results will be the same.
Imagine if you will that you are a market maker with computers that make thousands of trades every day. You have programmed these computers with the most sophisticated formula yet developed for making markets such that you make a consistent profit, i.e., all trades have an EV in your favor. If you find this hard to believe you aren't thinking about it hard enough. Why wouldn't you. Now along comes Joe retail trader with a mechanical system he learned off the internet from Tom Sosnoff and you as a dignified market maker are going to let this bozo just run up one side of your operation and down the other? Really? That's how you're running your operation? Some retail jerk off can fuck the numbers with IV and delta and maybe some gamma thrown in with a magic 45 day expiration date and take profits at 50% and suddenly they just plucking your money out of your pockets? Come on anon. Seriously. Think this through. There are no amount of premium farming trades done in any combination with any delta, DTE, IV, or anything else that has a positive expected value that will be in your favor The only way you will be profitable is if you have actual legit alpha, i.e. you can beat the market through skill. Anything else sold to you by tasty trade or any other guru is delusion

>>52882031
reminds of that anon form yesterday that made 15 rubles
crazy son of a bitch

>>52882031
Nice going, kid, enjoy your taste.

>>52882008
>WHOA BLACK BETTY
Bam-ba-lam

>>52881960
>the “I didn’t know the market tanks after inflation starts to come down” guy

BUDDY LOOK AT NETFLIX
BUDDY LOOK AT AMAZON

>>52882051
>>52882008
Tell me about Betty and why is she black?

The virgin jannie vs the chad buncun

I will never be defeated! Having your waifu cheer you on is the best thing in the world!

I took the gf out yesterday for some christmas shopping and got her flowers, too.

>>52881967
When you buy them?

How do I invest in watermelon, sneakers, mickey’s malt liquor, black and milds, and hi point firearms?

>>52882040
>The only way you will be profitable is if you have actual legit alpha
I don't disagree - but what I'm arguing is that if you apply the strategies outlined by Sosnoff while timing the market / whatever alpha you've developed, you will outperform someone just doing whatever alpha strategy
in other words, if you use the structure of selling premium that they follow, while also timing the market / being the market genius that you are arguing, you will outperform
I agree with you that if you are just selling premium willy nilly, doesn't matter the time, doesn't matter the macro, doesn't matter the situation / what the stock has been doing recently / catalysts upcoming etc, then you are just handing money to MM and they will get their edge

>>52882063
>Netflix doubled its summer 2022 lows in a few months
"Tiresome."

>>52882082
410 on tuesday pop to 410.
395 Monday close at 396.

>>52882084
That's later, first it's diamond Rolexes and Lambos
the Lambos are diamond as well

>>52881982
Market wants a pivot, which means rate cuts, not slowing/stopping rates. Powell keeps stating that he will under no circumstances do that in 2023, and the market doesn’t believe him because they think everything’s going to blow up if he doesn’t pivot

Volcker blew up US manufacturing in the 80s when he jacked rates up. Does Powell have the balls to destroy a bunch of US companies that are too far in debt to afford his higher rates? I guess we’ll find out

>>52882084
Will the bitching cease after reparations are paid?

>>52881743
-3%
Damn shit is getting real

>>52881954
The IV doesn't matter. There will always be a slight probability edge against you, which gets exacerbated in low liquidity conditions.Spread type doesn't matter either. It's just easier to calculate with credit spreads like the other anon showed.

>>52882031
I am, still down almost 6% for the year. Considering just swing trading for small increments of time to earn it back to close green at the end of the month since everything I wanted to short looks pretty low already and could bounce back a bit tomorrow against all logic like it has before.

>>52882122
Good one.

>>52882119
>Volcker blew up US manufacturing in the 80s when he jacked rates up. Does Powell have the balls to destroy a bunch of US companies that are too far in debt to afford his higher rates?

>>52882084
...wouldnt that just mean that all black people will go to ca?

>>52882031
very comfy day today

>>52882122
no, the demand for gibs never cease.

>>52882031
I've been bagging a lot of profits. Didn't even play the FOMC other than RBLX puts that 2xs today. Swinging KOLD

My dad made an appointment with his bank this week to set up an account to buy Ford stock, if thats not a top signal I dont know what is

>>52881899
Checked. And congratulations!

>>52882154
Oh fuck you’re right. How do I short California real estate?

>>52882122
hahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahah

>>52881789
SPY puts for tomorrow

>>52882122
>Will the bitching cease after reparations are paid?
The Buck Breaking will continue...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJU3FhKT4_0

>>52882175
what in the flying h*ll is wrong with boomers

>>52881890 #
JPow spoke the truth yesterday, forecasted terminal rate is going to be over 5, and we may have to adjust it up at the next meeting.

Just like you said, 8-10% or whatever TF it takes. He was as hawkish as Jackson Hole, but without invoking Volker's name. Do they have the balls to do a 75 bp hike next time?

>>52882154
fucking kek, based nigger containment state

What did Cramer mean by this?

>>52882084
Oh cool, I identify as black, now. Race and gender and whatever else is a social construct and all, they say. So I'm a black transgendered 11 year old lesbian triple binary girl. Now where my check at dawg?

OH MAN. It just keeps drilling lower. FUCK.

>>52881829
Must impregnate..,..,..

Goooo TMF gooooo

>>52882141
easy, just dubble when it goes higher

The economy is fine. See.

>>52882141
>Considering just swing trading for small increments of time to earn it back
Don't get too cocky or you'll lose $2k as quickly as you made it, especially since we're probably re-entering a low volume crab market after all this volatility

>>52882227
this goblin jew flipped on the other goblin jew?

Pivot bros, we know Powell was really lying about not raising rates in 2023. He'll switch back to QE at the next FOMC meeting, right?

CUT MY LIFE INTO PIECES

>>52882227
>Still living her bourgeois bohemian life while her partner in crime is behind bars
WEASEL'd

Do you guys think it's gonna bounce back tomorrow? I wanted to buy 1dte for today yesterday but I took a nap around 3 and overslept till 4:15.

>>52882220
who was in here earlier saying that TLT was "overbought"? lol

All stocks are going down. Invest in Trumpcards.
https://collecttrumpcards.com/

>>52882227
What I think is hilarious is that someone found the dude behind the counter and he confirmed it was her on twatter

holy shit is this crabbing so hard

>>52882242
She jewed him because he jewed blackrock. He broke the jew code. Member that a jew cant rob a jew but a jew can rob a goy.

>>52882210
>I have a black ancestor from 200 years ago
Like who the fuck can say otherwise? is megan merkle going to get this shit even though she only looks muttish?

Dixie chads... is it finally our time?

>>52882201
also the notion of rate cuts for the remainder of this decade is ridiculous.
The FED funds rate will likely be at least (positive) 7% by the end of the decade.

>>52882260
Kek
I bet he spit in her food.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
A spek of green!

>>52882268
You know he’s sick that he’s having to sit in a Bahaman jail cell crying about the lack of vegan food, he will be begging for extradition in February. He really thought they weren’t going to get to him. I can only imagine his face when the judge denied him bail.

>>52882122
This dude says we should pay reparations to use "black inventions" such as the light bulb, the cell phone and the internet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKa1HBz_CuQ

i made the right plays
it's nearly opex
yet i still can't help feeling
i'll never have sex

>>52882309
I bet this is a reverse fake out. They faked the bulls earlier this week. Now its time to fake out the bears.

>>52882251
Jpow is going to announce an emergency rate cut tomorrow morning, my fellow ape!

>>52882293
Higher for longer. 10% terminal rate for 20 year hypercrab. I'm gonna fucking cummmm

>>52882314
>Dr.
lmao

I should have bought tmf the other week

>>52882312
I bet he was like. "Woah, this is the shit the bottom feeders complain about, i thought it was bad being poor with only 100k to my name was bad enough"

>>52882293
No, recession in 23, rate cuts 1Q24 at the latest. Unless stagflation. In which case, your right it'll take to the end of the twenties to fix it.

>>52882318
Go easy on that cope anon

China be falling

>>52882268

>>52882320
You're not lying are you? It's going to pump tomorrow right?

This is the 2nd time Powell ruined Christmas. But if he crashes the kike market I’ll forgive him.

>tesla green

HOLD THE LINE, FELLOW APES!!!

STOCKS ARE FALLING SO THE FED HAS TO DO AN EMERGENCY RATE CUT!!!

Damn, I'm getting smoked.

>>52882361
Gimmi my copium, im all in on oil and the owl lady at the ECB said energy prices are going to continue to be expensive until February because they cant get into green energy and russia punished them.

All of my son's stocks (S&P longs, pic is per share) except one are taking a hit today.

>>52882417
Oil will be fine my friend

>>52882360
Klaus tried ta tell yall mane, ain't nobody wanna listen to da real life bond villain msm pretend don't exist, but he do exist, mmmm hmmmm, I saw Alex Jones at da liqua sto, he done told me ain't finna own nothin and he be telling me I gone be happy too and shit, oh hell no

>>52882314
>people listen to these retards
I hate clownworld.

>>52882434
Bank of America is trying absorb as many contracts as possible and vanguard ran away from only doing ESG. We know some weird shit is about to go down.

>>52882417
Oil will probably hit $100 or close to it again by the end of January

>>52882327
I remember your chart being posted before. So maybe I'm replying to you once again.
>higher for longer
...is still something most people completely ignore or brush off as nothing more than Powell lying to them.
And to some degree it really isn't their fault. There are people in banking, finance and investment that are approaching the half-time point of their entire career and only this year - half into their entire career - they witnessed two red candles on a monthly chart. They literally have no point of reference except
>money printer go brrrrrrrr
>number go up.
Literally no other point of reference...
So when most people talk about muh pivot, what they really mean is
>FED starting to cut to zero again
>fire up le printer - WHATEVER IT TAKES
>numbers resume to go up
...simply because this is their only point of reference; this is "the normal" they have operated under and lived in almost their entire life as an adult.

Imagine the reeeeeeeeeeeeeeing if those times might really be gone, NIRP, ZIRP, LIRP (LowInterestRatePolicies) being left behind and 5% is going to be the new normal from here on out and we're bouncing around from that normal to HIRP (HighInterest...) and back and forth and back and forth.
They wouldn't know what to do and how to act.

Party might be over...

Also, as I stated before, my current guesstimate besides a FED funds rate of (positive) 7% or above for the remainder of the decade is that the markets will be in a randomly oscillated crab-fest with an downward drift well into the 2030s and that January '22 were the market highs for at least the remainder of the 2020s.

>>52882424
I myself have done 2 paper trades that would be about a total of +$75 thus far.

>>52882360
see if you find yourself in this post >>52882479

Lmfao bulls

>>52882458
the comments are all blacks mostly agreeing with this idea. then look at the black population in us government now. its only a matter of time until we're run by a majority black government that likes to throw billions of free money to themselves

short MRNA while you still can

>wake up
>already bombarded by glowies

I was up 91% at open but nobody bought my far OTM contracts. Follow me for more recipes.

>>52882510
silver chads are fine with this

>>52882472
If that happens. Ill be fucking crying with joy. I have about 4K in OIL at the moment as of like 2 days ago.

What is the downside of buying long term SPY puts at this point??

>>52882530
Hello fellow trader

>>52882510
Nah this is the blacks last hurrah... Dems and the media are going to drop them like a hot potato in the next few years since Hispanics are already a bigger voting block and unlike what you see in the media spics and nigs hate each other and when spics start seeing the unbridled degeneracy of the Democrats it will turn them off

>>52881918
>>52882126
you're calculating on maximum loss..
applying the probability to maximum loss, and saying that this is your EV
you manage the trade, and by doing so never reach your maximum loss
if you were to set on these verticals and not touch them at all, yeah, you may have a negative EV - but this isn't what the strategy advocates for
when one of your deltas gets too large, you recenter

S&P has done nothing but crab since mid May.

>>52882510
That's already the model; the USA "defense" budget is just a half trillion annual stimulus since a quarter of the budget goes directly to salaries and another quarter to equipment built in the USA. The money the government throws at their corporate donors is part of "capitalism" so too will be Reparations. Blacks spend more than save, same as women, so giving them cash guarantees higher earnings per share.

>>52882314
the breakfast club is agitprop. they exist to create hate between blacks and whites.

>>52882505
not bad, you getting a new set of tires with that money?

>>52882582
All in NKE and LVMH

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>52882582
You know the military will literally buy all new shit even office stuff like desks and tables just to make sure they spend every single penny every year and complain how they’re being hamstrung by their budget and how they need more money next spending bill... Generals and higher up people literally fly around on G-650 private planes, paid for by (You)

Wheres that dumb fucking retard that said the fed follows the bond market and will do whatever it says
>rates peaked at 4% the bond market said so
HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>52882597
What are you aaaaaing at

It is a great time to buy some more JEPI

>>52882560
Kek, yes hello fellow insurrectionist

>>52882642
>T shirt for the camera
>Casual suit for the random arrest
Hmm.

>>52882630
Lol. If you ever need a new computer chair, hit up a military dumpster ~Sep - Oct.
Literally dumpsters full of 300 - 400 dollar office chairs. Gotta be quick, don't get caught grabbing a chair. They watch them to make sure they go to the dump.

>>52882644
>Down more than the S&P

>spaceman bad

>>52882672
Them orthodox ones always wear a suit

Stock market down, you know what that means? BUY BUY BUY!!!
I've already shuffled some of my stocks today, and injected a bit more into my brokerage account to take advantage of this downturn.

>>52882703
>no rate cuts until 2024

Anyone got that webm of that "software tech" girl where she just does jack shit all day?

>>52882685
Yeah, but he doesn't have those weird sideburn curls.

>>52882565
>you manage the trade, and by doing so never reach your maximum loss
That's hand wavey bro. I mean sure you can take just about any trade and "manage" it such that it is a winner if you're lucky or skillful enough though very few actually are. The thing is though none of Sosnoff's strategies can be modeled to the extent that they actually survive a backtest including managing the trade. We do know that upon entering the trades the expected value is negative. That can be quantified and is a statistical reality, you can do the math yourself (albeit roughly) as my single example demonstrated. However backtesting a series of trades including trade management in a systematic way that beats the market in multiple market regimes and will actually do so in the real market taking slippage and market maker fuckery into account? Nah man. That's a bridge too far
The only reason I'm digging into this is it's a rabbit hole that a lot of retailers fall into. The shit sounds sophisticated and cool "be the casino not the gambler" is how option selling is shilled. It's not really like that. You are still the gambler using any systematic strategies of any form you see in a tasty trade video.
If and when you get some true edge where you can time the market and that works without having to curve fit some magic delta or IV, or whatever "trade management" then you might have something you can apply to the real market and something you can leverage up to some extent. However if you think you'll see that on a tasty trade video you're being sold a dream. Understand expected value and respect. Many gamblers have gone on to their ruin no taking this into account and following high probability but negative expected value dreams. Don't let it be you too

how did it know?
i almost want it to be wrong at this point

I legitimately think that bears are so, so wrong about this. Whenever I try to dig into their reasoning they just end up sperging out about how all of a sudden we're supposed to take the dot plot as gospel and how "bulls are just used to infinite money!!!". That's not even an explicitly bullish thing to expect, it's just literally how the global economy has worked for decades after they, y'know, decoupled the value of the dollar from anything real and made it the global reserve currency. I'm willing to accept that the market could be shitty for a year or two but you faggots act like everything is actually going to collapse which is just pure lmao

>>52882314
>black inventions

Lol

LMAO even

>>52882567
The truth is that inflation is bullish for stocks. Rate hikes are bearish. The two effects negate and what you're left with is smooth sailing.

...

Do I buy calls here or what

>>52882752
anon its very simply
last time powell said he is going to keep raising rates until we hit 2% inflation or high unemployment

neither happens and so he raised rates
bulls are just retarded

>Get paid today
>Brokerage account "losses" wipe out the addition
k

>>52882777
Trips of turth

>>52882777
checked

>>52882777
>sailing

>>52882752
Mumu...

>>52882788
No man, unless you sell your stocks you haven't lost anything. In fact, this is a great opportunity to buy! Think of it as the stocks being on sale, get yourself a good deal, and rake in those profits!

>>52882785
I am for tomorrow. 395 strike price

>you will never have sex with a suburban soccer mom and bond with her children
I just want to be American.

>>52882787
Have you noticed how that's been the on-paper policy repeated word-for-word all year, while he's recently been skirting around actually saying "we won't be hiking much longer" every time someone asks him about rate hikes crushing the markets? I think bears are completely failing to read between the lines here, they sound like boomers the way they cling to paradigms that haven't existed since the 90s.

>>52882826
Oh, I bought (at 1% above today's lows so far).

>>52882720
There’s like half a dozen of those. You’re going to need to be more specific.

I fucking knew it! Oil isn't scarce.

>>52882752
80 year blocks.

>this time, it's different!

HOW DID IT END THIS WAY
DON'T LEAVE ME
LOVE ME
JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER

https://youtu.be/QrOY6tSvHGI

>they're going to hold rates at 5% through 2023
>4% through '24
lmao does anyone actually believe this? Not the bond market.
We'll flash crash sometime next year, they'll drop rates to 1-2% and we'll V shape recovery before the presidential election. There is no way we'll go into election day with 4% interest rates. The biden team will not allow it. They want this recession fast and quick.

>>52882777
The redpill is actually this is amazingly bullish for us here and now. We have the opportunity to buy a massive dip before the next bull run and make massive gains.

>>52882837
front run the fed mumu, you're smart and will profit massively from it

>>52882495
Naw, I started DCAing into mutual funds in '97. I DCA' d through 2002, writing checks that equaled my losses each month. I blindly ignored '08-'09 DCAing along the way. I dropped as much cash as I had in on Christmas Eve '18. But as for the 70's, I wasn't there for stagflation, my time horizon allows for another decade of DCAing before I need the market to perform like it did in the oughts and teens. Currently dumping 40% of my gross into investments.

>>52882873
I'll wait for you to stop investing before buying

>>52882873
Yea it'll be just like when Peter Lynch bought Taco Bell

>>52882883
have you heard about ticker JEPI?

>>52882826
>stocks being on sale
Not until 2500

>>52882897
>stop investing
Guess you'll be waiting 50 years then?

>>52882924
I give it a month

DCA bros how are you tilting?

>>52882867
You think Biden is actually running in 24?

>>52882939
I picked up 75 shares of SPY today.

Status of Black Betty?

>>52882736
did you update the pastebin yet

Do we have more news on friday that can move the market or should I just capitulate now.

>>52882960
awaiting reparations

>>52882964
it has the current version

>>52882936
lol

lmao!

>>52882877
>>52882848
>>52882816
Starting to think that all the "bears" are just bots

>>52882970
Options fuckery.

>>52882495
I did fuck up during covid though, not sticking with the plan cost me $25k, about 10% of my current portfolio.
>>52882914
Thanks have, I wish it had a longer track record. I should probably stick with a target date fund in my 401, and my own mix of ETFs in my other accounts.

>>52882977

>>52882940
After the midterms and mail in ballot infrastructure improving, yes. Jill Biden is all in too.

>>52882977
>"buy that fuckin dip"
>HODL!!!!
Yeah I'm the bot.

>>52883038
This bitch is like Dick Cheney was for Bush.

>>52883043
wtf is the difference between buy the dip and fags screaming BUY PUTS every time some stock goes up 1.75%?

tiktok banned from government devices

>>52883092
fuck chinktok desu

SHOULD I LONG OIL WITH A X20 LEVERAGE ????

Reverse Bart from here?

>>52883092

GANBATTE TMF SAMA

Can somebody name 3 stocks?

Thanks

>1899
>dahmer
>del taco's pinoccio
>the menu
>glass onion

What happened to NFLX? Is it a buy now?

>>52883083
Nothing.

>>52883118
JCHN

>>52883092
They should ban all social media from government devices

>>52883118
Pulp Fiction
Jackie Brown
True Romance

>>52883118
TOL
U
SO

When are they going to experience mass layoffs? I feel the bottom will be in when they have to lay off some staff.

>>52883102
do it and post results

>>52883150
ZH is written by GPT bots.

>>52883043
"Buy and hold" is unironically one of the very few strategies that has worked pretty much forever

>>52883150
My dad works for the federal reserve, Nintendo, and zero hedge and he said all of the are adding staff right now

I want a Ferrari but I don't want Doug Demuro viewers coming up to talk to me about cars

>>52883038
Joe Biden can say whatever he wants. He served his purpose and now his usefulness has run out. The DNC will sell him out in 2024.

>>52883095
>>52883106
Erik Finman the now previous choice of of Vinco Ventures said this was going to happen back in October
Vince Venture also owns a tiktok clone called Lomotif

>>52883160
except for when it crabs or takes a decade or more to get back to where it when you initially invested
buying the top is still pretty bad even for buy and hold

>>52883155
Ok

>>52880822
kek

>>52883160
yeah well that was before America became a third world shithole for the foreseeable future

>>52883157
>The last decade of Tesla hate articles were written by bots

Mind blown

>>52881805
Bavaria is a good beer. I started drinking it recently. Its surprisingly affordable compared to local beers.

>>52883187
>choice
CEO*

>>52882977
>These Bobo’s are all bots
Meds anon, you bought weekly calls.

bros, why is trading equities more fun than literally anything else on this stupid gay earth? nothing brings my brain a bigger dopamine hit then hitting sell when your trade is green.

>he bought in 2022

>>52882729
I just think it's silly to say
>selling premium you have a negative expected value because if you set it and forget it, over enough instances, you'll always come out behind due to maximum losses!!
when this isn't what the strategy advocates for whatsoever - it's active management, and not allowing your delta / theta to ever grow too large, with enough time frame where you're never eating maximum losses
of course there is risk involved - but it is the best way risk adjusted strategy for gains
I am not discounting that it requires more than just the basic principles - that it requires someone timing the market as well as the principles
and I don't think that anywhere in tasty's content do they put out that you'll magically make money, that the call spreads you sold will always make money as you have an edge on that trade, or that it is easy
Sosnoff has done more to educate the public about options than arguably any other person alive - I respect him, and I respect his opinions
When he says (what originally sparked this discussion) that retail traders although being 1-10% max of the overall activity they drive the market direction, I respect his opinion and believe that there is reason for him to be saying what he is saying

>>52883205
Why do you think they were so bullish on it?

I went long at $76.6 , wish me luck

TMF Calls are bussin. No cap

>>52883232
wut dough?

>>52883121
Maybe. I don't think NFLX is a great value at this price, but at least it's better than WBD which got buried in $50 bil of debt from the AT&T spin-off.
When the competition is being pushed into a planned bankruptcy, that's usually a good thing for the remaining players on the field.

>>52883150
pre-Trumptardism Zerohedge was actually a pretty good source.
Nowadays it's a boomer rage containment zone.

>>52883121
>>52883243
DO NOT BUY NFLX right now... They missed their new subscribers numbers and advertisers are pulling their money out

HIGHER

>>52882008
For me, it was when he said people are still earning too much to reverse policy

>>52883269
They just need a couple of more series about bi-racial trannies fighting against the white male patriarchy to bounce back no worries

>>52883189
>>52883204
>>52883210
Amazing, literally nothing of value. "America is finished!" legitimately sounds like shitty pajeet trolling.

I'm a bit disappointed that I'm one of the only people in the thread trying to cut through the bearish euphoria, where did all the bulls go?

Natural gas is mooning but oil is crabbing. Why i always feel like i pick the wrong commodity every fucking time. +2% on oil

FOR

OK, but why has SPY bottomed here at 389?

>>52883281
LONGER

Why is everything up 20-40% percent since Nov 2, but down overall over 3 months

I’m scared to buy anything

LONGER

Are 0dte options bad?

>>52883299
Quad witching tomorrow. I would be careful buying puts right now... might be a tard pump tomorrow

>>52883292
They all pivoted and went shopping

>>52883160
>worked pretty much forever

>still losing money a year into the bear market

>>52883292
>where did all the bulls go?
I'm still here. I'm always here.

>>52883322
we've rejected the memeline like 3 times in the last 2 weeks
get the only way we're going after sneed coping is DOWN DOWN DOWN

>>52883292
Bobos catch a lot of shit and have been btfo by the Fed for years, but Mumus are sore fucking losers and can’t admit when they’re obviously wrong.

The market is crimson today, anon. Maybe you were wrong about the Fed continuing to prop up the market in lieu of curbing inflation.

Let me help you: say “I was wrong, that’s why I’m losing money”

>>52883327
1929-1954 is the real sad one

Man, just lastt night I was thinking about buying SOXS. Too late now.

>>52883223
>active management
Here's a data point for your consideration. When you enter the trade you have negative expected value. Then when the trade moves against you you say hey no worries I'll just manage it. How are you managing your trade anon? By getting out of one trade that had negative expected value and getting into another one. When you sold your spread it had negative EV. When you close that spread to manage you are just making another option trade.. which also has negative expected value. You are implying that there is some series of negative expected value trades that sum up to positive EV. That is not how it works. The reason the option game is like this is, unlike equities, it is zero sum. When you buy and hold the market with equities, i.e. SPY or whatever you have positive EV due to various factors that have been studied to death. Also the market expands as the economy expands so expected value for all participants is positive. Options being zero sum and you against the market maker, i.e. casino operator, are just a series of trades all of which has negative quantifiable expected value for the retail trader. The only way you can escape this fact is if you have a repeatable edge. You will not learn this edge from tasty trade videos
To sum it up, remember, every option trade you will learn from Sosnoff that you can actually get filled is negative EV, every "management" of a trade is just another trade that has negative EV. Stringing these together does not equal edge in any rational way. If you're saying you have some special edge or market timing skill then cool but you didn't get it from following Sosnoff strategies verbatim despite his claims of profitability or backtesting because his strategies as stated DO NOT WORK

>dude oil lmao
>dude uranium lmao
Aaaaaaahhhhhhhh

>>52883292
Slurping.

>>52883341
I've been saying that for a month dude. Super short term I wouldn't fuck with it before quad witching fuckery

>>52883189
Crabing for a decade is what you retards call packing your bags. Deal with it. In the long run DCAers win (except Japan, I know). And if we're going the way of Japan, show me the country that will out perform. My target date has international exposure. My time horizon is 15-20 years.

>>52883362
Why'd you choose to buy one of the most overvalued oil companies..?
Just buy PBR lol

>>52883366
a giant quad witching following a super hawkish fomc is the BEST POSSIBLE BEARISH CATALYST you could ask for

screenshot my post so you can learn something next friday after we are down some percent

Damn, it keeps getting worse.

THATS IT

IM BUYING PUTS HERE

>>52883327
Jesus fucking christ I was just waiting for someone to post an insane example like the UK or Japan. Nice going dimwit.

>>52883338
What's your strategy for the next year?

>>52883352
Nah. I can't believe people still think the US and/or global economy is doing anything close to QT after an entire year of funny money appearing out of nowhere and going to "Ukraine" [but still somehow funneling back to the US government what a fucking surprise]

>>52883380
Quad witching is tomorrow faggot. Everyone is going short they will pump it tomorrow

>>52883322
I highly doubt it since last year and 2020 people were buying leaps and last month with the low CPI giga pump. There are probably a ton of calls bought that will expire worthless.

>>52883189
Don't you know about Bob?
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

>>52883398

>>52882845
Bro if oil companies knew this they'd be shouting it from the rooftops to appeal to zoomers. "Actually Oil IS sustainable!" Maybe even taking credit for making it so. "We discovered a new system..."

There is no benefit for lying.
>but anon, if it's scarce then it has no value!¡!
What's everyone gonna do, build their own personal rigs? Oil companies still control the infrastructure to get it, scarce or not.

>>52882681
I have some VUG desu

>>52883325
Heh, I made that image

>>52883320

only if you get the direction wrong

>>52883377
Never even heard of pbr before lol.
I'll start checking it out

>>52883428
I member

>>52882222
Checked.

>>52883419
>"Actually Oil IS sustainable!"
That's, uh, not at all what they mean when they bitch about "sustainability".

>>52883439
Brazil's neolib president is about to murder its dividend. Sometimes stock prices drop for a good reason.

>>52883398
>Macro can be ignored because muh Ukraine
Dude, you sound insane

>>52883419
> if oil companies knew this they'd be shouting it from the rooftops to appeal to zoomers. "Actually Oil IS sustainable!"
climate fags don't care if peak oil is real or not, they only care about muh c02 emissions

>>52883460
Ukraine IS the macro you absolute fucking mouthbreather holy shit

>>52883423
>Check out chart
>It's the same goddamn pattern as everything else this year
RoboETFification was a mistake.

HOLD THE LINE, APES!!!

PIVOT SOON!!!

>>52883398
Haha yeah those wild and insane examples of the UK and Japan, the previous two major world powers. Good thing America will be top dog forever and the USD will be the world reserve currency until the heat death of the universe.

>>52883092
Wasn't it already? Trump should have banned it altogether

>>52883414
and what if it takes 25 years to get back to Dec 2021 peak? picrel

>>52883508

All in 395 calls for tomorrow. .35 a pop.
Make or break time, bby.

New

>>52883506

>>52883455
>Brazil's neolib president is about to murder its dividend. Sometimes stock prices drop for a good reason.
Sorry for the gains you'll be missing out on, if you actually believe this.

>>52883480
>Let me just ignore all the numbers related to household debt, credit usage, housing and commodity prices, the implications of long term high rates, low unemployment, weak sales data, and the looming threat of QT
>U K R A I N E
Bro, it's okay to admit your judgement was wrong, full blown denial isn't helping anyone

>>52883500
This. A libertarian frontier nation claims and fills an entire continent, rises to dominate the global order, then enjoys a decades-long tailwind of declining interest rates? Of course that's a long term "buy and hold".

But that's very much the exception in world history and not the norm.

>>52883508
Is that with dividends included? And what was the net inflation?

>>52882453
The black female characters on SNL talk like this and somehow it isn't racist and is "funny".

>>52883398
You think a few hundred billion can offset trillions in maturing treasuries?

I can’t wait to see Powell eviscerate this market. Gonna be the fire sale of the century.

>>52882122
The World as Gibs and Reparations