/biz/ - Business & Finance

WHOA BLACK BETTY

i dont want to wagie, im on the edge. i need to get my shit together fast

>>52879630
s-santa rally?

>>52879580
>For the last two years it's been "lol the Fed is a bunch of liars I don't believe anything they say"
Idk what the fuck you're talking about. Any logical bear has said from the very beginning, "Do not fight the Fed."
If you're paying attention to people saying "Don't trust the Fed!! Fight the Fed!!" you're a retard
You should listen to the Fed, but take what they're saying with a grain of salt
for example, Powell saying at the conference last week that a soft landing was possible blah blah blah - that is them being afraid of a hard recession, and trying to coax / talk the market into a soft landing. It is alarming / concerning that he changed his language to a soft landing --- the more central bankers try to push X is happening, the exact opposite is the case
Do not fight the Fed - do not fight the crowd
The Fed has stuck to their forward guidance for the last 3 years straight, where they say they're doing X, and then they do X
and anytime that they decide that they will not do X, they send a report to Timiraos at WSJ to publish a report saying "Actually they're doing Y" - and the market instantly prices in Y

>>52879586
the market was pricing in cuts in 2023, where we would not see above 5%
the most recent, prior to the Fed, was under 5%
Powell can say at a conference, "I believe the terminal rate may be above 5%" but if it's not being priced in with federal funds futures etc, then the market is not pricing it in
by releasing it in the SEP / dot plot, it becomes more official, as every member has a vote, not just Powell
if all members are saying the same thing, of it being above 5%, it matters more than just Powell saying he sees it above 5%
the market prices it in
this is what happened
also you are neglecting the rates for 2024 / 2025 as if they do not matter at all
the market cares what interest rates will be in 2024 / 2025 for growth
if rates are higher for longer, there will be less growth

>>52879645
AMBERLAMPS

the last thread was terrible, please only make good posts in this thread

>>52879651
bro please don't bring your arguing with that salty moron into this new thread.

Bull-bros, we're still getting a Santa rally, right?

>>52879660

holy heck bros
did you see that hecking drop yesterday?

>>52879677
>>52879649
skynet sold last month

>>52879651
>the market was pricing in cuts in 2023, where we would not see above 5%
Weird, because Powell confirmed they're going above 5% two days before the crash.

>>52879645
BLACK BETTY HAD A CHILD (BAM A LAM)

>>52879660
I am once again asking if I'm going to lose money selling covered calls

>>52879690
use this.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
if you do not see it reflected in this, it is not being priced in.
Powell is just one vote. Yes he is powerful, can shape the views of the committee / steer the conversation, but he is just one vote.
when Powell makes a statement like this, you may see the Fed funds futures move, but not do the full price in
but then when you see 10 other voting members all saying the same thing, it can get fully priced in

I have so little respect for PIVOTORS
These are braindead bulls born in the 10 year summer of easy money that, when confronted with even a little difficulty, abandon all discipline and effort to just fight the Fed.
After 10 years of "Don't fight the Fed' Mantras.
And I have yet to see a PIVOTOR that isn't a mouth breathing retard on the level of David Hunter, Kevin O' Leary, etc.

only got 7k dollars left boys... lost 35k past 4 months all because i didnt take profit when i was in + and instead rode it down to zero.

>>52879694
You can make money if you are a trader with defined exit points. Mixing covered calls and buy and hold is a losing move.

>>52879698
>Powell is just one vote
>but then when you see 10 other voting members all saying the same thing, it can get fully priced in
This is complete horseshit.
Many times FOMC members have made dovish statements right before Powell speaks, and then Powell's statements completely nuke the market.

>>52879710
stay away from options bro

>>52879710
>lost 35k in 4 months
I think you should stick to bonds,buddy

Will there be another fight over the Is debt ceiling this year? National debt is far above 30T already and I’m not too sure that will eventually be sustainable

>>52879710
$270 left lost 5k .

>>52879694
worst case scenario is you get assigned and sell at a price you in hindsight didn't want to sell at as long as you don't roll them out at a loss or something very stupid
you only "lose" money when you pick strikes that you aren't psychologically willing to exit at and then retroactively assume you would have held or sold at a higher price
all that said CC's regularly do not outperform buy and hold, but it can and that's why people do it

YANG BROS WHAT THE FUCK

>>52879649
Surely the Santa rally is still happening
Gonna go all in on SOXL when market open

>>52879719
>>52879704
yes.. Powell is the most powerful
you're very angry for no reason.
the market received new information yesterday from the SEP and the dot plot, of higher rates for longer
you should not be surprised that the market moved lower upon news that rates would be higher for longer, in 2023, in 2024, and 2025
you should expect the market to move lower if rates are being announced higher for longer
it would be weird if it had gone any other way - you should be angry if it had gone a different way
being angry about the way it went is like being angry that the grass grew when the sun was shining

>>52879730
atleast were in this together bro.
>>52879726
i did the right plays just for some reason i got so greedy on the last play which cost me 20k in profit and then cost me my last 25k dollars

>>52879739
>the market received new information yesterday
lol what was it?
Because it sure as fuck wasn't the terminal rate.

>>52879736
yeah idk bro, i've given up all hope on my yang bags

>>52879750
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fomc-dot-plot-and-central-tendencies-from-dec-2022-meeting-eoy-2023-48-20221214/
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-hikes-50-basis-points-as-expected-20221214/
for 2023 5.1% instead of 4.6% prior
for 2024 4.1% instead of 3.9% prior
for 2025 3.1% instead of 2.9% prior

>>52879651
>>52879690
>>52879698
>>52879707
>>52879719
>>52879739
Are people really this bent out of shape over yesterday’s FOMC decision? This meeting was about as straightforward as it gets.

Women owe me sex

>>52879755

what in the ABSOLUTE FUCK is going on

>>52879755
bro just stop engaging with him, he's salty and isn't listening at all, you're just repeating yourself over and over.

>>52879767
yes apparently he is
he is flipping out that it was bullshit that the market dumped, because no new information came out, that it's manipulation, that it's unfair, that Powell already said X, so why is the market now falling when they are saying X in their report
I am trying to explain to him that he needs to pay more attention to than just 50 vs 75bps, that he needs to care about rates in 2023, 2024, 2025

>>52879750
Isn't it insane just how far these faggot bears will go? I wish I had saved screenshots throughout the year, they've flipped so many times and sucked so much analyst cock it makes my head spin.

Either the market is forward looking and full of Big Money market movers who have the inside scoop, or the market is a completely random dumpster fire that takes violent shits every time there's a slightly spooky headline - sometimes no headline at all. Which is it, bears??

>>52879733
What market conditions are required for CCs to outperform buy and hold?

>>52879783
you're the one feeding him, just quit

>something else happened at 2pm besides the FOMC minutes guys, trust me guys it's not the FOMC minutes that's just a coincidence
>there's something else
>totally not the FOMC and Powell
>FOMC was priced in already
>guys listen

>>52879783
>that he needs to care about rates in 2023, 2024, 2025
You mean the terminal rate, which Powell already said was going above 5%.

Why are we dumping again?

when are you retards realize you can make money both ways, you just need to find which way feels better for you

>>52879786
It's both. Sometimes it's a logical happy place where the math works out and sometimes the emotions win out and the scary (or optimistic) headlines run the show.

>>52879775
>>52879783
What is this cringey reddit bullshit? You guys have nothing to go on, you're just huffing your own farts at this point.

>u need to care about rates in 2023, 2024, 2025!!!!
Why? Do you seriously think they're going to stick to whatever plan they pulled out of their ass after not sticking to the last plan?

>>52879796
>>52879771
again, Powell is just one person, one vote
and again, the market did not believe him
the market was calling his bluff, right before the Fed meeting
if you watched Fed watch tool everyday, you would know what I am talking about
the market was pricing in rate cuts in 2023, with a terminal rate closer to 4.8%
this was not above 5%
the market was saying "We don't believe you Fed, we think you're going to cut rates in 2023"
the market was trying to play chicken with the Fed
even though Powell said himself (and Bullard among others) said they saw terminal rates above 5%
if the market doesn't believe him, tries to play chicken with him, but then the report comes out showing all voting members think the same thing, then they take it more seriously, and price in the higher terminal rate, higher, for longer
you do not understand the dynamics at play here, where the market was playing chicken, trying to force the Fed to cut rates in 2023
this didn't happen, so now they are pricing in higher, for longer
start looking at the Fed watch tool everyday, for all the months, and you will see what I am talking about

>>52879798
economy keeps coming in too strong and it's becoming more and more clear there is not only going to be no pivot but that the fed may have to hold rates high all through 2023 to get it to finally give up the ghost and cool down. Even though CPI has come in low the past 2 months a lot of this data suggests the economy is still overheating or has the potential to start overheating again.

>>52879798
Isn’t it just ECB rate hike?

Hi lads, is shorting Tsla free money or is it too late? It worked for me in the past

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

I'm about to buy a $1,000 mont blanc pen. I was told i looked foolish using a cheap pen when meeting with an executive prospect.

>>52879811
this thread sucks, i'm going back to bed.

>>52879828
Yes, now that Elon is a deep state enemy it's free money

YANG BROS

>>52879825

>>52879802
>he takes it both ways

>>52879823
>the market did not believe him
But he's been saying it for months.

Here's him in November:
>He reiterated that the end point of the tightening cycle would probably need to be higher than forecasted in projections released in September, which suggested most officials anticipated a so-called terminal rate of 4.6 per cent. Most economists have pencilled in the fed funds rate topping 5 per cent.
https://www.ft.com/content/194285f8-a3a3-48ad-8a00-0b1423c974c4

>>52879811
>>u need to care about rates in 2023, 2024, 2025!!!!
>Why?
because the market cares about these rates. the market is forward looking. you are not. you are a retard, apparently, if you do not understand why interest rates matter.
>Do you seriously think they're going to stick to whatever plan
No, probably not, but when they release their new plan, that will matter too, and will affect how markets move - I will also pay attention to that new plan when it is released, as it will dictate the direction of the markets. Not paying attention to it is retarded. Trusting it 100%, putting your full faith in it that it is what is going to happen is equally retarded.

>>52879789
it outperforms if you sell a CC and it doesn't get assigned which is effectively buy and hold + premiums gained from CCs
CCs would outperform as long as volatility is relatively low or more specifically the equity doesn't make a big enough gain to exceed your strike
any large data set on it though is that buy and hold is better because eventually you'll be assigned at least that's the theory most people against CCs use

>>52879823
Oh I see, so it's totally reasonable for the market to go absolutely insane over a 0.2% difference. It's not like rates are still historically low or anything, right??

Imagine buying something called YANG

>>52879774
IT'S THE FINAL HEEMDOWN

>>52879823
>so now they are pricing in higher, for longer
Factually incorrect, look at the bond market.

I am financially cumming

>>52879847
no you

>>52879774
How many times do we have to tell you that rate hikes rape kikes? Get fucked you fucking heeb.

>>52879786
Have you been living under a rock? This ride isn't for everybody. Welcome to

>Yuro bepis

>>52879853
Okay that's what I was thinking.
I'm going to cell CCs in this shit market. Once things start to turn around I'll stop. Maybe I'll lose 100 shares and miss out on some big gains.

>>52879866
>rate hikes rape kikes
"Increasing usury is bad for the Jews"
lollll

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH with an H

>>52879851
Nah I'm forward looking. My guess is that you're fucking wrong about rates, just like you were last time. The Fed and US government both are going to do whatever it takes to make "line go up" in the long run, meaning infinite money printing under whatever name they come up with. I unironically think that bears are "fighting the Fed" at this point.

>>52879850
>But he's been saying it for months.
Exactly - I agree with you - the market is retarded
the market is running on bull copium, looking for any excuse to pump it, looking for any excuse to look for a pivot in Fed policy
the market has been expecting, hoping for a pivot literally since September (or earlier!)
just because the market is retarded and tries to fight the Fed and tries to force the terminal rate lower doesn't mean that it is what is going to happen
the market has been slapped in the face over and over by the Fed, but still hasn't learned

>>52879854
I keep hearing this same shit argument repeated everywhere, by pundits, in /smg/, by anyone without a brain
>but interest rates were super low!! them going up to 3% is nothing!!!
it's because they were super low that the extremely sharp rise is so damaging
think about it like this - there's some super pasty white Irish kid, who is being thrown out into the sun at the equator
he's going to get a fucking sunburn
"But, but.. he was already so white!"
"He was already so pale, why is the sun burning him?"
this is the same logic for "rates are already so low! what does it matter!"
if you have an entire environment built around zero rates, you form massive zombie companies that do not turn a profit
if you sharply raise rates, it sharply changes human spending behavior
we haven't even seen the results from the Fed hiking cycle yet, which are extremely lagging - we won't see the results until 2023

I'm feeling quite bullish right now, green at close.

it'll pump green for a tiny bit and then crab the rest of the day

Any COAL barons here? All I want for Christmas is for COAL to reach $500.

What the fuck do I buy?

>>52879866
>Get fucked you fucking heeb.
I got a 3day for calling YOU this, last week.
Get fucked, indeed.
>>52879900
checked
We're closing giga green, lads

>>52879883
So wait, so the heebs are just selling their equities so they have more cash to lend at higher interest rates, while everybody's equities go down so they need to borrow more money from the fucking jews? Sneaky bastards, I'm getting tired of this shit!

>>52879767
Yeah, I didn't even flip out this bad when I was holding inversed leveraged etfs and the nasdaq pumped like 8% cause Powell said something mildly dovish like, rates will eventually receed

>>52879859
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
lol.
>pic related
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fomc-dot-plot-and-central-tendencies-from-dec-2022-meeting-eoy-2023-48-20221214/

>>52879881
Selling long-dated covered calls and puts is the only way I've been making money lately. Good luck fren.

>>52879881
you'll also notice most of the time the premiums are very small compared to what you are theoretically risking
that's why strike is important and anyone shilling CCs will always say to pick strikes you are already okay with selling at
if you look at CCs as a way to "maybe" sell instead of a limit sell order then buy/hold isn't the alternative option and it's better than just selling at that price
the caveat being, it might not get assigned so you could hold it for longer than a limit sell order scenario

is there anyone here who trades options based on overall market (s&p500, dow) moves? i wanted to ask about your procedures

>>52879913
VTI

Steady lads, deploying more capital

>>52879924
>le don't fight le FED!
Bond market owns the FED. Bond market says rates go to 0 next year. Watch.

>>52879900
>green at close
lol maybe Powell will repeat the two-day old news that he's hiking rates by 0.5 and markets will pump.

>>52879896
I normally charge for these sessions.
Denial is what stage you seem to be stuck in since fall of 2021, but it won't get your money back. No refunds mumu thanks for playing

>>52879944
with _____ you lose.

>>52879913
niggercattle

>>52879899
Wow that is one of the worst analogies I've ever heard. Do you really think interest rates at these levels are deterring anything? Companies firing people and stopping new hires more than offsets these lukewarm rate hikes, everyone knows it. Companies have been crossing their fingers for a reason to get rid of people for years. I just don't buy the argument that rates at these levels are heeming anyone except the most retarded market participants.

>>52879931
Yes we all do

>>52879774
Ze gret rezet.

You vill own nozing.

>opex looming
so it's gonna dump until the end of Monday isn't it?

>>52879990
I expect full crab today.
Daily 0DTEs are like ultra Viagra for crab markets.

>>52879988
hand over the dubs now.

>>52879925
>>52879930
I've been selling covered calls and puts for about a month now. I've made something like 4% return. Which is better than the 0% of the market in the last month.

That's how I've been looking at the covered calls. Essentially I'm happy to sell at that price, but if I don't it's okay.

>>52879948
Ok please bet your life savngs on it.

>>52879953
with Who?s you lose
with qui?s you sneed

>>52879738

>>52879990
wtf is opex?
stop with all the damn acronyms and things

>>52879984
>Do you really think interest rates at these levels are deterring anything?
Yes. A huge yes. Look at the complete collapse in home sales. Look at the complete collapse in vehicle sales (and in extension their prices)
Companies who are no longer able to take on new debt at cheap levels is what results in them laying off employees
If they're having to pay huge interest on their debt, they do not continue expanding
This happens across the entire economy - consumers hold off on buying that new X item, as their credit card rates increase - they cannot borrow as much money, they cannot spend as much - on the whole, demand goes down as interest rates go up
this decreases the revenue of companies - which results in them losing money - which results in them laying off employees
it all happens together
interest rates are the first step in the cycle, which kicks off the feedback loop that you are talking about
it all comes back to interest rates
Seriously, go look at new home sales before the rate hikes and post rate hikes
>interest rates don't matter!!!!111one
>interest rates don't influence behavior!!!!!1111one

>>52880010
this is an incorrect answer m8 we are all dumber now for having to read this post may God have mercy on your soul.

>>52880009
Already have a ton of puts chief, I'm making my life savings off it.

next leg down of the slow downward crab market
it's all so tiresome

>>52880024
Triple witching tomorrow

>>52880025
>>52879984
https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/24/mortgage-demand-down-up-to-88-from-this-time-last-year/?sh=408e129314c5
>Mortgage Demand Down Up To 88% From This Time Last Year
lmao.
88% drop.
INTEREST RATES DON'T MATTER THOUGH!!!
THEY ARE LOW!!!
INTEREST RATES DON'T CHANGE BEHAVIOR!!!
this is you.

>>52880006
Same here. If I get assigned I'm ok selling, if not that's fine too. I really have no fucking idea what the stock is going to do at this point (SENS) but overall I'm still bullish.

If fucking Joe Biden and Janet Yellen could take their heads out of their asses for 15 minutes and look at the state of this economy they would realize how fucked the current situation is and bail out FTX to prevent a total collapse of the economy.

>>52879985
which funds do you use?
are you the type that opens/closes same day?
what kind of profit goal/loss limits do you use?

>>52880024
Options expiration. Not trying to be mean but you should stick to mutual funds if you don’t know some of these terms

Jews are not allowed to give gifts to goyim, what did you think was going to happen?

>>52880056

>>52880043
Damn dude I bet you get fooled by Biden saying things like "my administration has created the most jobs in the first year of any presidency!!" too

>>52880027
Triggered.
>>52880040
Oh, right yes

>>52880043
>down up to
what retard wrote that title??

We are perpetually trapped in a never-ending spiral of crabs

>>52880055
maybe you shouldn't be using jewish jargon in a christian thread on a christian board.

>>52880052
SPY, QQQ, SQQQ, TQQQ
sometimes I close out same day, depends. I scalp 21%, but mostly make crab spread plays

>>52880047
I prefer to CC on stocks I'm happy to own forever. Been trying to stick to blue chip stuff. Currently doing INTC.
Stock price is taking a dive last couple days (like everything else) but the fundamentals are fine enough over the last couple years. Its not going anywhere and is very stable long term.

I also have no idea what's going to happen to the stock price, and neither does anyone, which is why most traders lose all their money.

WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

people keep talking about the interest rate hikes and credit cards: do americans have variable rate credit cards or something?
Here most of them are just at 19.99% forever.

What the fuck was that?!

>>52880061
why are they wearing their pants like a group of niggers?

>>52880055
I don't care about all that stuff.
Yields? No. VIX? No.
Don't care.
My entire trading strategy is centered around never having to watch CNBC or read Yahoo.

>>52880079
oh so you really read nasdaq well?
what's a crab spread?

AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>>52880065
???
Lol. Google it friend. You're a retard to be arguing to be arguing with me on this point. The rest of the discussion I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - but this point in particular, about mortgage demand absolutely cratering since the hike cycle began is not up for debate / extremely common knowledge
even back in June mortgage demand hit 22 year low
https://nypost.com/2022/06/08/mortgage-demand-hits-22-year-low-as-interest-rates-rise/
it has only gotten worse
seriously, google it, start tracking home data as it's released each week
this isn't rocket science, this isn't some magical new information I'm telling you
everyone has been aware of this, except you apparently

>>52880091
Yes, rates on CCs are variable. Most Americans don't even know why this matters. There's virtually no helping most Americans.

another day of YANG dumping even though china's stock market is slumping.

where is the bang bang bang anon

Its happening again

What Happened to the BANG BANG BANG poster ?

>>52880078
>Implying that /smg/ isn’t for God’s chosen people
>>52880102
Okay Bogglehead

>>52880124
He died.

It's like my cock is scheduled to get rock hard at exactly 9:30AM every day.

Guess Who ?

SELL SELL SELL REDDIT SELL

WHERE'S THE ANON TOUTING ROBLOX PUTS YESTERDAY

MY NIGGA

>>52880134
>Bogglehead
The "he bought?" people with the big chins?

>>52880124
here you go bro best I got

>>52880124
JPow slumped him, yesterday. Is what it is, I suppose.
>>52880134
>God's chosen people
Yeah, Christians. You deceitful faggot.

>>52880113
The housing market has consistently been one of the worst ways to predict what the market will do because it exists in an entirely separate bubble. Yeah oh wow mortgage demand is suddenly "low" after two years of completely insane speculation in the housing market. It's almost like every dimwit with more money than sense has already bought a house they can't afford and now prices are too high and no normal people want to buy..........

>>52880151

>>52880055
retard, no one with a big boy account uses 'opex' as options expiration. opex is operation expense, always will be.

>>52880154
no those are the bogs, bogglehead is some retarded jewish shit financial advisors use to fleece more fee's from their goyim

>>52880172
t. Larper

opened up a cheeky PDS on nvda just in case I'm wrong

I bought SOXL
Lets get the santa rally going

NFLX is down 7% what the hell

>>52880161
Nah most of those people can afford those houses at the fixed rates they locked themselves into. Where people run into problems is when they lose their jobs and can’t make payments anymore

Well, fuck.

>>52880161
It's interest rates.
People can afford a low price tag home at high interest rates.
They cannot afford a high price tag home at high interest rates.
You can see the ebb and flow of mortgage demand based around interest rates.
When interest rates go up, housing, mortgage demand goes down.
This is simple supply / demand economics.
If the price is higher, which it is, with higher interest rates, demand goes down.
We're not talking about the price of homes in this discussion. That's an entirely different topic.
We are talking about how interest rates influence demand.
Higher interest rates have led to a complete collapse in real estate demand.
An 88% collapse.
Interest rates matter.
If they are higher for longer, in 2023, 2024, 2025
this matters - it influences human behavior, in a big way - as I just demonstrated to you, in 1 year, new mortgages fell by 88% due to the increase in interest rates
this is a big number, a big drop in economic activity
The market cares about interest rates, and you should too.

>>52880158
based, hello Brother in Christ

>>52880151
Buy buy buy

If I lose less money than the S&P, am I winning?

>>52880081
Sound strategy. I happen to own a lot of SENS so I started selling CCs on it. Definitely unloading it at the soonest opportunity, though.

>>52880195
What does Netflix have to offer, anymore? I only have my account, because my in-laws use my account on their TV. As soon as they nix that, I'm cancelling my account.

>>52880214
Depends if you beat daily inflation (5%)

>>52880195
But why?
i bought puts cause it was obvious thats going down, but why like a fucking Rock?

>>52880214
I'd say so.

t. beating the shit and piss 500 myself

>>52880223
No idea cancelled my account 3 years ago absolute dogshit content imo I'd rather watch playthroughs of Dayz on Jewtube

>>52880197
Yeah, I think big layoffs will do more to crash the housing market than the interest rate increases have when they come. With a delay of maybe 6 months to a year for foreclosures to start ramping up

>>52880250
Delete this.

>why yes i am literally burry in le big short

elon becoming the new orange man bad is making my MULN pump

>>52880201
>>52880113
Wait is this spurg anon?

>>52880252
Stacey Karen white women suburban zombies finally getting what they deserve

>>52880195
I dunno, but they haven't made anything good in years.

>>52880022
>>52879738
>>52879649
Do you retards not understand the santa rally happens the week before christmas? Market up 2 days ago, down now, down a week ago, up 10 days ago, down 12 days ago, up 15 days ago. You people can only think in terms of "DOWN FOREVER, SCARY" and then complain when you don't buy.

When to buy COIN?

we've only just begun...to liveeeeeee

YOU TOLD ME POWELL WAS GOING TO PIVOT
YOU LIED TO ME

>>52880252
You now remember when Zillow™ was buying houses sign unseen for above asking.
Crazy times man.

>>52880269
>complain when you don't buy
I bought.. VIX CALLS NIGGER HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH

>>52879774
Bulls getting humbled.

>>52880257

>>52880195

>>52880201
>If they are higher for longer, in 2023, 2024, 2025
That's just not going to happen my dude. Big fucking "if" with that one.

>>52880274
I could never tell if it was a malicious plan to pump their own bags by buying up whole neighborhoods or they were just absolute retards.

I shilled PBR and RBLX puts yesterday... you never listen...

this the best you got bobo? im still standing

>>52880284
more like shitflix amirite

so whats the spy target now?

370?
350?
280?

>>52880299
4500

>>52880250
yep, the only way this reset works is mass layoffs forcing people to capitulate

>>52880294
PBR is up what

>>52880299
We're range bound 370-410 FOREVER.

buying 10 cheap 400 0dte's for a hedge in case of scam pump for friday.

>>52880284
JUST FUCK MY SHIT UP

>>52880284
Mixed race advertising isnt quite reaching the mark?

>>52879836
Depends. I bought my wife a Tiffany watch and every time I look at it I think what that money could go towards. Also she doesn't like to wear it because it's too valuable and most people have the poor and will get violent towards those of us who dont.

WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT

>>52880302
Damn must be nice to have a 2 digit IQ and wander through life - so hopeful and naïve

>>52880310
damn man I still have an old school box set DVD's of the entire Seinfeld series should watch it over Christmas break

>>52880290
see
>>52879924
you are fighting the Fed
and you will be punished for it
do not fight the Fed
do not fight the crowd
instead, wait for the Fed to release a report saying that they will do the opposite
you can believe all you want "they're lying, it won't actually happen" - but if the rest of the market believes them, acts / trades on the information as if it is gospel, you will be fighting the crowd, and you will get fucked - it won't matter if you ended up being correct, it won't matter that you were right too early
they published this information yesterday of higher for longer - the market is pricing it in - this is why we fell - there is no reason for you to be upset about it

>>52880299
Our next consolidation is at 350, but we’ll ultimately bottom out at 280-300 in Q2 of next year

>>52880310
>We're range bound 370-410 FOREVER.
HOLIDAY CEL-A-BRATE

>>52880304
Are layoffs that bad? I thought they were confined to the meme tech sector for now. And even in tech theres still so many job openings. Are other industries jumping on now too?

>dick around in premarket trading on ES futures
>end up with $600 profit
>hop in and out of 2 quick trades on the ES at market open
>finish the day within 1 minute after locking in $2.6k net profit

maybe i have my first 100% today...
Thank you nflx
the sacrifice of those who got u there will be honored

Damn this dump is something else 'taint it? Glad I saw the most obvious dump of all time and bought all this VIXM. You guys picked up a bag too right?

>>52880310
stocks will NEVER go up again

I simply live with the pain.

>>52880340
freaking h*ck m8 that's a nice job

>>52880331
Did we ever figure out what they meant by the series end?

>>52880201
Mortgage rates are benchmarked to the 10yr yield + ~2.5-3%. The fed doesn't set long duration yields, they can only affect short term yields.. even then it's leaky. 1m t-bills are BELOW the Fed's target window. Mortgage rates have come down since the summer because 10y yield has also come down. The fed can't set the long or short end of the yield curve, so what do they actually affect? It's all psychological, which is why the media and fed make a such a big deal about their conferences. The real economy doesn't borrow from the fed. People change their behavior because they hear about what the fed is doing, and that does affect the real economy.

Greenspan didn't know why 10y yields weren't a function of 10 1yr yields. Bernanke himself said the job is 90% talk. JPow reiterates it's "anchoring of inflation expectations" that is his most important indicator effectiveness of his policy actions.

The fed is behind the curve. The curve is forward looking, and says they can't hold much longer than spring next year. You're right on supply/demand mechanics, but the you need to understand the Fed's role properly to not get blindsided by market participants in the know.

>>52880283
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSKizLRFbTo

apple fight for 140 / tesla 160 such an exciting day BoBros;
Coffee Gang reporting in

SPY is dead.

>>52880319
Let my wife run wild in the jewlery store and she bought some $1700 diamond earings...so worried shes going to loose them because she doesnt take care of things.

>>52880333
The market at-large DOESN'T believe the Fed though, that's the point. Schizo algorithms fucking around over headlines is not true market sentiment.

>>52880373
that is a man

>>52880373
ty for this sir

>>52880339
you're starting to see more headlines every week, im just a retard on the internet and the "tech industry" may only be 3% of the economy but you have to consider the amount of people overall in meme white collar careers in sales/marketing/consulting...it's a lot, a lot of young people and these are the first to go.

>>52880347
why would you buy a mid-term product for a short term prediction

>>52880309
PBR was briefly up at open but already started falling, we will see it go lower than yesterday

>>52880388
interesting that bonds are moving up desu

>>52880395
Zam the zoomers get their 2010 moment.

>>52880309
I said to buy the 52 week low of PBR and that it was on firesale. Nothing will happen and it will be 50% gains before next divvy.

Said RBLX puts because it's unprofitable garbage and insiders are selling shares

>>52880102
And just like that the market turns your life savings into my capital gains.

>>52880395

>>52880395
>I'm just a retard
You can say that again. If this whole Twitter saga has taught us anything it's that massive tech companies can instantly fire a majority of their employees and still carry out their original goal.

Hello niggers. How's your morning going?

what did i do to deserve this

>>52880278
-16%, -17%. I’m beginning to feel a bit sweaty

>>52879630
Test

>>52880421
If I wanted to hear jews ramble incoherently I'd watch my Seinfeld DVD boxed set.

>>52880439
Suffering builds character. Also, you may be an options gambler, in which case you do deserve it.

>>52880326
dxy is dying, china is reopening, consumers still consume, labor market is hot, jobless claims came in lower. there is nothing stoping the market to go up, except fear and uncertainty, which was set aside. 5% top rates is nothing when yoy cpi is on its way to 5

>>52880439
quit watching transsexual pornography. Quit watching anime.

>>52880388
>The market at-large DOESN'T believe the Fed though
it's a game of chicken
imagine 2 cars heading toward each other head on single lane road
yesterday, the market flinched in the game of chicken
https://youtu.be/sdZ5AtteGW0?t=40

Why are none of you bear niggers mentioning this short squeeze on tsla? Let me tell you why:
You guys fucking suck

>>52880441
>-17%
>a bit
never change /smg/

my TGT puts are printing

>>52880434
Good morning,
I'm fine, this is fine.

>>52880395
I guess... I'm in tech myself (and was layed off) and I viewed it as correction from the covid pump, where these tech companies gained retarded overvaluation and hired accordingly, are now forced to shrink back to reality. But the hiring scene is still very employee-sided even with the layoffs as smaller companies scoop the talent, and I'm not convinced that the rest of the economy is nearly as fucked as tech. I guess I HOPE it is... I'd love for tech to be over permanently, set me free, and let me invest at rock bottom prices.

To the anon I asked about penny stocks 2 weeks ago, Thanks for MULN

>>52880458
Inflation is sticky and rates must go much higher to get it back to 2%

>>52880468
TSLA is up .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% m8 nice short squooze

>>52880468
lol
lmao even

>>52880402
It's up 7% from its low yesterday. You are supposed to buy when there is blood in the streets. Sorry you missed the bottom dude

>>52880388
>Schizo algorithms fucking around over headlines is not true market sentiment.
In the 1920s sure... But that is exactly what it is now.

>>52880468
already fading bro XD

>>52880401
Long vol is tricky and the volatility on front/forward month products like VXX, UVXY, and UVIX not to mention the losses from contango is such that even if you're right you can still be wrong. I trade to win not to look cool with a bag of UVIX and VIXM gives me much higher probability than the other long vol ETNs so despite it being based on 4th-7th month futures that's where I'll spend my money. If I were longing VIX futures directly with the flexibility of rolling only when it's most advantageous I might reconsider but ETNs are much too blunt of an instrument for that although shorting shares of SVXY is probably a good idea too though there is the borrow fee to contend with so I do that a bit more judiciously

>>52880458
>Line go down cause everybody just scared!
Lmao at all mumus

>>52880421
Post proof gptbot

>>52880477
no it isnt.
all that the doomsday cult has is "higher (5%) longer (1 year)", where the nothing ever happens and line goes up have hard data supporting their speculation. Target 4500

>>52880478
>>52880479
>>52880493

>post FOMC
>no news
>market dumping
>SOXL already -10%
What the fucking is going?

GOOKMOOT LET ME POST YOU ABSOLUTE FAGGOT

just woke up, fuck bulls

>SOXL -10%
And today, all is right in the world

>>52879857
I miss the days when we were memeing 1 Yang = $1,000. I wish that hadn't died. I wonder what my nigga Andrew is up to these days, anyway.

*Federal Reserve official entrance song for Jew Powell as he steps up to the podium to be ultra hawkish and say same greasy stuff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_2D8Eo15wE

>>52880476
You're welcome
It was half sarcastic but I had a position myself
Looked like a good value in case of another EV pump

>>52879630
MUUUUUUUUUUUUMUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
I COMMAND THEE KNEEL

To the faggot that shilled Skechers the other day go rot in hell

THIS ADVERTISEMENT JUST TOLD ME WOMEN RETIRE WITH 30% LESS. EVEN ASSETS ARE SEXIST NOW YOU MISOGYNISTIC PIGS I HOPE YOU'RE HAPPY

Why aren't the bears more exuberant? This is weird.

>>52880510
New data this morning, very weak retail + very low unemployment means the Fed isn't stopping their rampage any time soon

Next stop is SPY 370, but I wont be buying until 320, we still have another -25% to go

OUtta my w...

>>52880532
they only have enough money left for tiny bets at this point

>>52880497
yes, that is why hedge fund and institutions buy shares and puts while retail tries itself at shorting the bottom on margins, and when everyone is afraid, be greedy

>>52880530
lol yea bitch them lattes add up bitch seethe bitch

>>52880528
>Skechers
Anon, you invested in the official shoe of nurses?

Merry Christmas

>>52880549
LMAO XD
thynks for the coffee on my keyboarrd >.<

>>52880532
My portfolio had its back blown out. I’m stacking cash now to buy the bottom

So there's a perfectly good reason why NVDA is down 5% today, right? And why it's tracking identically with every other fucking ticker? Surely, someone said something within the last 24 hours that materially impacts this specific company drastically

>>52880532
you just know

>>52880553
Nobody is fearful yet, many many bulls still hoping for a V shaped recovery because they are addicted to QE

We got months of more downward crabbing ahead of us, and look at some historical performance of when the fed pivots - markets dump even further because once the fed pivots something broke

we're retesting the lows

>>52880469
It’s getting a bit much to be honest. How long again until that announcement?

>>52880473
>SOXL lower than it was on Monday
Man what a wild ride for whoever bought. It was 14 on Tuesday market open

>>52880480
It had brief bursts every week or so only for it to proceed to fall lower every time in the following weeks in case you have not bothered looking at the chars. I talk with Brazilians every day so I know this company will be an unstable shitshow for at minimum half a year, but be my guest if you want to lose money.

well this sucks

>>52880559
All i want for Christmas is TMF to hit $14. I've been a good bear all year Santa. That's all I want

>>52879651
A valuable post in a sea of shit posts. Thank you.

>>52880532
there are no bears, just afraid neutral to bullish speculators and investors hedging their bets
>captcha
xxN0N0

>>52880575
Why was it up 60% from the bottom?
Why did it pump with bad earnings?
Why is the p/e ratio over 70?

I am so fucking sad that I didn't have money in my account when SOXS was $27

>>52880590
TLT is nearly overbought on the daily, if anything TMF should go down from here

>>52880583
>How long again until that announcement?
what?

>>52880510
ECB is implying they’re ready to blow up Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece to conquer inflation, and the Fed isn’t getting the layoffs they wanted. The US has to start destroying companies to save itself

>>52880528
Why anon? Skechers are a trash product
>>52880555
checked. make sure you get your mcCvax

>>52880575
NVDA might be the most overvalued company in the market aside from Apple.

>>52880575
It has a p/e of 80 and will be under 150 a share after all you reddit retards capitulate

It's ridiculous how fun this general is. I love gambling with my 4chan bros.

>>52880599
Because they're the 11th largest company in the fucking world and they make future tech that the entire planet uses every day

>>52880610
Rate hike I mean

>>52880510
Everyone is cash gang and tossing money at the market trying to time the "bottom." "Maybe they'll pivot at the FOMC, CPI is cooling!" -- Toss money into market.
"Oh, they are doing the thing they said they are doing"
Pull's money back out of market.
Everyone knows its going to R-I-P on the slightest sign of dovishness, so they are taking the 5% hits if they are wrong on the chance they might mistime the bottom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

Jay Pow has abandoned us

>>52880532
Even if the bears are in control they still managed to get owned by hilarious volatile swings. It's not too surprising they're skeptical

>>52880580
there is no volume on the sell side, there are no enthusistically naked shorting degenerate institutions. Just fearful accumulators buying dips and hedging their risks

New
>>52880642
>>52880642
>>52880642

Early baker roped

>>52880646
>>52880646
>>52880646

Why doesn't DRV move!? Fucken bitch dumped when SPY pumped in premarket Dec 13 and now SPY is below the pump it had and DRV still hasn't reached it's old value of 50$. Is this a scam stock like UVXY?

>>52880637
That was yesterday
I don't remember the amount

>>52880638
Retail doesn't move the market and Big Money doesn't "toss money into the market" just to pull it out after a spooky headline

>>52880575
>release overpriced trash
>think you’re the opec of graphics cards or something
Die shitstains

>>52880590
Dude, the curve is fucking inverted you’re retarded I’m sorry

>>52880648
>>52880652

>>52880606
How the fuck can treasury bonds be "overbought on the daily". How are you doing TA on flight to safety by looking at moving averages? Nigguh go do TA on UVXY or some shit this is so dumb

>>52880586
>people are afraid ahh
Wow it's almost like that's when you get value. I don't care about your Brazilian discord trannies

>>52880662
lmao, yes they fucking do

>>52880632
>I love gambling with my 4chan bros
well that's a good thing cuz you're here forever

>>52880636
They're overvalued
Lots of unsold cards sitting on shelves
No sales to china
AMD does the same shit for half the price
Want me to go on? It's a good company but way overvalued. P/e ratio is way worse than Tesla now AND the earnings went DOWN

>>52880636
You bought the top. No one cares about your crypto bags. Apple is the largest company on earth and they deserve a 40% haircut all they do is make overpriced chink plastic shit

>>52880432
i'm not debating that 90% of these jobs aren't worthless and fake, but they make up a large part of the economy

>>52880475
it depends what your role is, of course if you're a codemonkey you'll be fine

>>52880223
Netflix has a great collection of classics on dvd. dvd.com is what you want, broseph. Forget the streaming service. Their streaming library is pathetic.

>>52880673
It is hardly just people being afraid, but also the fact that for the next month there will be factional infighting over PBR. Well you will see the results from your own portfolio anyway, no need for me to convince you