/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52876964
Add another famous /smg/ stock to the books with AQB.

CEI now worth .08 cents. Zach morris just got charged today. MrZachMorris + /smg/ were shilling this for months and months.


https://thedeepdive.ca/sec-charges-zack-morris-7-others-in-pump-and-dump-gang-for-100-million-stock-manipulation-scheme/

>>52876975
>And when she inevitably rejected him? What else could anon do, but kill her?

I can mentally tune out doomposters based on smell. Don't even need thread filters

OIL sissys why are we dumping?
I thought reddit was buying?

>futures

is volunteering rewarding, or depressing?

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

I have puts on SOXL expiring Friday. How low is it likely to go today or tomorrow?

>>52877096
For the military or at some charity that helps the poor or something?

>futures

>>52877149
Pump on Thursday, crab into dump on Friday, Santa dump down the chimney to 330 SPY by January 27th

>>52877022
it was all a larp. stupid to believe anyone here could have a female friend

>>52877189
You're saying it's gonna pump today? Look outside my friend. It's raining blood as we speak

>>52877096
Rewarding. I love cleaning up public areas. Last time I volunteered I met this group of guys I became buddies with. It's a good way to spend a Saturday morning/afternoon.

>>52877189
Actually it's crab today, crab tomorrow, crab forever.

>>52877096
sometimes i volunteer with the animal shelter its fun to play with the doggos

>>52877233
Good. I close out during poomps and doomps. I mainly feast on all the crab days in between, and add a few scalps here and there on oil and gas

Merry Christmas

I hope someone can shed light on how the banking sector and regulation game works in 2022. It looks like everyone implicitly accepts that the banks will remain too big to fail. The regulators just put heavy fines on many banks to keep them from bloating spurious unsecured loans too much.

santa rally is finally here

>>52877149
Friday is triple witching so depending on risk management it's probably good to hedge that day as it's a coin flip. If it's not a big position you can also just ride it out and hope market makers don't pin it someplace

>gold going vertical
lmao

I openeded a demat accout to buy oil etf and uranium etf? Will I get tendies or will I have to eat uranium?

I spy with my little eye
Something about to be red

>>52877235
I had to volunteer at a dog grooming shop and a library for 24 hrs worth of community service a decade ago because I had a DUI. I got a doctor's note to get out of the picking up roadside trash shit, worked 4 hours at a grooming shop and 5 hours at a library. The gay Library manager dude was like 20 years older than me and drove to my house because I had no gas money then and he gave me a note saying I did 20 hours instead of just half a day because he knew my wife's sister and probably just because he was gay and liked me and my probation deadline was already up. He was nice though and saved me from violating probation

>>52877264
Defaults mean they get to seize collateral, which increases profits for shareholders. loan requirements are racist.
speaking of exuberance, NVDA's price has doubled in 2 months.

Mumu you beclown yourself

>>52876953
>friends
>with a woman
She's been in love with you the whole time but will have to reject you now since you're a beta

>>52877325
The image is from January 2021 btw (cropped filename)

>>52877326
Beef, it's what's for dinner

>>52877264
Sure, I'll explain. The banks as well as the regulators are one big revolving door club, and you ain't in it

>>52877334
She certainly would have given signs

>>52877297

Meh, it's not really rocketing yet. Gold in retrospect did a good job of predicting just how hawkish Fed would be when inflation popped, even tho it was hard to believe at the time what with the debt being what it is. However... on the flipside of that, with real yields where they are gold should be lower. The fact it isn't tells you: gold also doesn't believe Powell is Volcker (Fed will blink before 2%) and it's probly gonna be right again.

I always tell ppl to watch GOLD/TLT, cause that's where the rubber meets the road and gold predicts the future pretty damn well.

I've never had sex. My net worth is $-240. Next year will be better than the previous 30, right?

>>52877540
Golds "increase" in value has more to do with the drop in the price of USD. In other currencies the cost has remained relatively stable

>>52877540
Powell will be Volcker because Volcker is heavily loved. The econ damage necessary to cause him to give up is very far from here. Just for fed credibility he can't stop

its all coming together

>>52877553
You're probably not the type to try turning your life around so no it won't.

>>52877558
Volcker was also the biggest rate cutter in history :)

>>52876964
>futures

the fuck happened?

>>52877553
If you had $1000 to spend on a degenerate options play, what would it be?

>>52877317
There’s an old adage. If you like someone, set him free. If he comes back, he’s gay. You didn’t finish out your community service, did you anon?

>>52877590
Intc puts

>>52877558

That's fine but yearly deficits will start spiraling out of control. Being Volcker with debt here requires the US to gut entitlements, military, and/or raise taxes on the wealthy. It's not just enduring a slowdown it has serious political ramifications. Even Volcker literally said that what he did would not work today due to the debt.

Unless ofc, the Fed can scare the foreign buyers back into buying USTs, or they can engineer another flood of cheap oil to crush inflation and rates for them. Labor certainly ain't getting cheaper.

>>52877579
For Powell to cut like he wants he has to hike harder. Actually a soft landing is not that preferred
- max econ pain on china and russia with a hard landing
- can then cut rates like you say to lower bound. Gov doesn't want to borrow at 3% rates, they want lower

I think he hikes till things break and waits for it to really hurt

>>52877553
Move to Vietnam and start a new adventure as an English teacher. You'll get laid btw

>>52877618
>max econ pain on one of the largest buyers of US treasury bonds

we will scam pump after today jobless claims higher than expected since bond market doesn't believe in fed dot plot

>>52877694
they already pivoted idiot

>>52877694

I'm real interested to see when the employment "adjustments" finally get corrected.

Labor has def held on better than I expected, but I do think they've been hiding job losses.

>futures
b-But Tom Lee said there'd be a santa rally

Volunteering at animal shelters is nice, but you have to do your part and provoke pitbulls to get them killed. I did this for months and was never caught. No injuries, either. At most, i caught a light scrape. No nigger ever came to that shelter again. I single handedly whitened the clientel in little over a year. No niggers or white trash seeking dogfighting dogs.

Anyways. Kill every jew and the world improves.

Also, fuck waking up early.

So with volatility being on the lower end of the channel and the market obviously being unimpressed with JPow's statements yesterday, somebody explain to me how VIXM is not the 200 IQ play at this time. What am I in for with this trade and how am I fucking up?

>>52877798
Contango and pain, lol

>>52877810
>contango
I considered this. VIXM rotates the 4th-7th month futures though and those are barely in contango right now even with volatility relatively low. As the market dumps as a matter of fact they will soon move from contango to flat to backwardation propelling my gains. If I were trading UVIX or UVXY you would have a good point but I think VIXM is the antidote for adverse roll yield from VIX futures
>pain
I can take some heat until this trade works out. I don't think it'll be much though

>>52877553
Watch some Andrew Huberman on youtube. He'll set you straight

>>52877608
No, the judge accepted the letter and terminated my probation. The gay dude just said " loose lips sink ships" as he smiled and drove off after he gave me the letter in my driveway. Hadn't seen or heard from him since

>>52877878
>gay
>loose lips sink ships
Definitely a double entendre

Is the Fed still running down their balance sheet/doing quantitative tightening?

I hope we crash today and tomorrow and then pooomp next week. That would benefit my current situation the most because I'm a bobo that bought 12/30 calls as a hedge before Powell. I hate hedging because I usually loose money when I buy insurance, but as soon as I don't hedge shit will fly against me

>>52877913
Seems like Powell wants a bearish crab, trying to sound as neutral as possible and thread the needle not really answering anything so we neither retard pump nor crash and burn

>>52877398
Are you stuck in the 1990s when everyone wanted to become an investment banker? Enjoy getting called in the middle of the night to read Xerox presentation booklets

WHY RED

All I want is AMZN to dump down to $70 next year, I need some slurps dammit

>>52877975
Because
>he bought?

Covered calls are a scam. If you get into a position and feel compelled to sell covered calls against it you are either too greedy for your own good or the position is marginal and therefore sucks anyway. Either way you will eventually get rekt. And the funny part is you won't get rekt this time, only after the trade has "worked" a few times and you start thinking it can't lose so you leverage up on margin since in order to get the same dopamine hit the trade has to get bigger and bigger each time until the last time and you end up losing all your previous gains and then some.
Instead of putting yourself through that anons, just make better trades that don't depend on option fuckery to work

>>52878051

I my shorts print, then I also lose my job and have my life ruined.

>>52878085
*if ffs

>>52878051
Mostly agree. Buying 100 share for the purpose of hoping it doesn't go up is dumn. Someone makes money on spreads and stuff but I'm not psychic enough to consistently pick a winning underlying, 2+ strikes, and date(s). Leaps seem like a good idea until you bet wrong and it's just a slow motion fd. I blame negroes.

>>52877974
I was just a kid then and probably didn't know what an investment banker was back then, let alone knew anybody that wanted to be one. Maybe a pilot, architect, or soldier, but not a banker, what non Jewish kid wants to be that when they grow up?

>>52878092
That pic kek. Never get high off your own supply

I can't get girls. I have let my friends and family down to the point of avoiding them out of shame. I never achieved anything of significance in my life. How to reconcile with the fact one is a loser?

Also buy YANG.
>pic unrelated

>>52877609
Just no life in that stock

im bullish on Adobes earnings after hours, is this retarded?
we doomped so good entry after the scam pump at open

>>52878112
>I can't get girls.
Nobody can. It's gone from a niche "incel" issue to a mass societal problem in just a few years.

>>52878124
How do I long this phenomenon

>>52877609
So I should buy calls on that? I was thinking of inversing you since you seem to always lose. Maybe if 2023 is a continuous devolvement further into clownworld it might somehow work. I guess anything can and does happen

>>52878130
Buy defense and aerospace stocks. When a large portion of the male population has no hope of getting laid or a quality relationship things are gonna eventually get kinetic

>>52878124
I think it's actually social media. It's turned every girls expectations and social requirements to maximum. The amount of facade lives they see is huge and they all try to emulate this high standard. Women are more superficial social status seeking than men psychologically so that happens. They can get +3 men on 1-10 scale for quick sex but no relationship which ruins their brain. So basically the way society is structured they will just get fucked around on and end up old and unable to settle down 3 from what they normally fuck.

It's ogre for women's happiness and societally it's very bad. The imbalance is growing too.

>>52878130
I think it's tied to interest rates, although if Jpow can't get hoeflation under control, then we're going to need more drastic measures before the human race goes extinct. None of this kvetching about the environment matters if there are no people left in a few hundred years.

>>52878161
Don't they wanna get rid of most of us useless eaters as they call us anyways? Down to half a billion population? They will have robots and AI to replace most plebs which they will slowly sterilize and kill off, while they transhumanism into gods while whatever plebs survive will live enslaved in hell on earth

>>52877264
Damn the financial times is so good, good shit anon. That ladies right, you can’t use P/E as your sole valuation metric, on INDIVIDUAL stocks. You CAN however use it as a valuation metric for the market as a whole, in which case it follows pretty well defined patterns and can easily show periods of overvaluation. Anons hated on CAPE but it literally worked and the market crashed bigly.

why did futes rug so hard

>>52878219
crabbing in anticipation for fridays news

You did listen to Hussman-chan right anons

>futures

>>52878205
But but
>muh profitless tech companies don't need earnings
>muh service economy
>muh exponential growth
>muh new paradigm
How could a crash have possibly happened?

>>52878241
Based hussman enjoyer

>>52878252
>artificial intelligence
>virtual + augmented reality
>exponential population growth
>increasing interconnected trade
face it chud, we're going to 5000 in a year the economy has never been stronger

Should i sell my shorts right now and go long ? Pls respond

>>52878252
Kek

>>52878262
Hussman is always right. Quant faggots will overthink it when simple linear returns analysis + time insensitivity will literally do the trick.

>>52878269
If we’re going to SPX 5000 it’s because the fed gave up fighting inflation

>>52878051
I've read this elsewhere also, can somebody explain to my mushy brain how you can lose money with covered options?

>>52878241
one of the lines ends at 2008 lol nice chart r*tard

>>52877878
Did he puncture your stern with his pink torpedo?

>stocks going down today
>looks like my buy and hold positions are going to get fucked, AGAIN
>i can't get out of them because im not smart enough to know if we're actually dumping or if this is just another fakeout, so all i can do is wait and buy more if it gets to the lows again
>all of this has nothing to do with the actual companies im invested in and everything to do with JPow being a gigantic faggot with an autistic fixation on crashing the economy with no survivors

i literally just want AMD to get to $90 and im probably gonna be waiting years for this shit because the world is fake and gay. i hate this shit and i regret ever trying to be a boglehead. being underwater for potentially years fucking sucks, even if i do eventually double or even triple my money with AMD by continuing to buy, it's fucking painful holding and being underwater for so long. but i can't sell because maybe im wrong because im retarded, and i have a great recession-proof job so im trying to look at this as buying cheapies in the long term. but fuck, it sucks, i hate it.

meanwhile, my day trading is going incredibly well. but most of my money is locked up in long term tech shit so fuck my ass i guess. im not selling, i know as soon as i do it'll go up for some fake and gay reason, and if that happened i'd probably kms. i refuse. idk when the meltup will occur but god fucking dammit, i'll be here when it does.

i will continue to DCA into AMD at major support levels. i will sell my position for double, whenever that happens (which is will, guaranteed). i will hold for years if i must. i really don't give a fuck, get rich or die trying. im gonna scream into the void on here to vent anyways, though.

>>52878295
Just allow yourself to get stopped out. Whiplashes can make you feel like a loser but its better than being 20-30% down.

>>52878281
You sell covered calls for +5% gain, the stock pumps bigly +20%, you get called and buy back in, the stock drops 10%, you’re down -5% holders are up 10%. Selling covered calls works best if you believe in a stagnant period until your call expires, and then you need to stop selling calls. Running the wheel is a tantalizing myth of high returns that boogle heads like to sell that anon is correct

>>52878307
not to beat him down but how tf are you down on a stock that has gone up 1000% in 6 years

>>52878289
That’s the line for actual subsequent 12 year returns retard, it ends because it hasn’t been 12 years since that point

>>52878295
Never DCA individual stocks.

>Futures

OIL chads we rise again.
Why didnt you listen?

>>52878147
Be warned I have intc calls. I inversed myself for your benefit.

>>52878201
they don't need to "get rid of most of us", we're doing that ourselves by not fucking/having kids anymore. China is gonna get omega-heemed by demographic collapse because of their retarded one child policy shenanigans, but make no mistake, the rest of the developed world is dealing with this shit too. honestly, the fundamentalist religious types are probably going to inherit the Earth, like ben shapiro said.

im still banking on our generation to be the last one to have a comfy life for awhile, but who cares i'll be dead by the time shit gets really bad. i think millenials will ultimately pull a boomer on the zoomers and kick the can down the road, and the zoomers will be the truly fucked ones as the first generation hooked on screens since birth and unable to cope. we millenials will get essentially a shittier but more technologically advanced version of what the boomer's got in their golden age. a silver age, if you will. zoomers and beyond are probably fucked, either a bronze age if they can manage to do the same thing themselves and push their debt onto the next generation, or they'll be the ones to "find out" after all the fucking around of previous generations.

>>52878051

>>52878270
idk

The fact that the moving averages haven’t crossed in over a decade is bullish and you can’t convince me otherwise.

HOW COULD YOU NOT WANNA BUY THIS CHART!?

>>52878325
I'll be taking that premium. Unless INTC majorly pumps tomorrow or Friday, then I'll just be selling my shares at a gain.

>>52878310
>the stock pumps bigly +20%, you get called and buy back in

How do I get margin called if I have the underlying shares to cover my ass if the option holder decides to execute it? (Yes, I'm retard)

>>52878241
what does this mean?

>>52878278
>when simple linear returns analysis + time insensitivity will literally do the trick.

what does this mean (and how do i do it)?

>>52878313
there's literally 15 different spikes he just doesnt circle kek, one line alone is no way to predict, the divergences are the only thing im interested in and it doesnt show the 12 year so what's the point????

>>52878323
UCO has been healing my damned portfolio in the last few days. Amen and cheers.

>>52878270
Short more. We're headed into a recession. The dot plot has increased expectations from 5% to 5.25% terminal rate. No cuts in 2023 at all. The market is being fucking fool retarded right now with how far the Dow pumped. Shorting equities or long volatility whichever one pleases you is the 500 IQ play
>>52878281
>how to lose money with covered calls
It's not the covered calls themselves that lose the money it's the overall mindset of the trader. If you buy a stock you expect it to go up. However in the back of your mind you're like well if it doesn't go up at least I'll farm some premium. What happens now is instead of taking well researched trades you fall into the trap of taking shittier trades since you can always juice it with the calls. So now you're taking shitty trades. That's one problem. The next issue is if your trades do work out and the calls go in the money you're either going to get your shares called away and lose on the extra gains you could have made or you will roll the calls out and up. This second option is what internet gurus tell you to do and it's seductive but if it was such a great idea then you would have chosen that strike and expiration in the first place. And let's face it, a roll is just closing out a shitty trade and opening another one under duress. Eventually if your shares keep appreciating you end up selling leaps calls and the numbers work out to such that even with the rolling you are just delaying the inevitable where you're making a few dollars instead of the gains you lost by writing the calls in first place. So now you buy the calls back at a debit losing the gains and then some. But then the market dumps and not only did you lose money on the calls but your shares lose money too. But you're too emotionally invested to let them go.
So now you start some margin trading/leverage thing you read about on Reddit thinking that's the answer but it ain't. The answer is make better trades. There's more but I've said enough

I feel like the dip will be bought this morning

>>52878330
>by not fucking/having kids anymore.

And how do you think that came about? Look to any where that influenced that phenomenon and it will always come up to the same conclusion

>>52878201
>eaters
Where does this word keep coming from?

Ive played a video game years ago that called humans, "eaters"

>>52878311
i didn't buy 6 years ago. i still feel like AMD is a great company with great leadership and a bright future, it's just the world events going on right now fucking shit up. but once those are over in a year or two and we get another republican president, line will go up again. so, now is the time to buy cheapies. don't want to be like those faggots who sold the bottom of the covid crash.

>>52878352
If the shares are in the money at expiration, they will get "called away." If the option buyer exercises, the shares will get "called away." That has nothing to do with "margin calls."

>>52878295
>so all i can do is wait and buy more if it gets to the lows again
Why so many anons here trapped into midset of increasing a shitty position. "dca when it goes lower" is probably the most wrecking paradigm in current year.

>>52878365
But the CNBC and twitter people all said a 0.2% variance in some random shit pile of variables called CPI means to go fully long

You mean that 0.2% change didn't spark a new bull market? Did the financial media hook us all into some bullshit event that already reverted?

>>52878416
this. sell and re-buy at worst lol

>>52878352
You get called by the person who bought your call, which means you need to sell your underlying shares at that strike price. Even if it’s cash settled, you will only ever make +5% no matter how much the stock went up. This is how you lose money selling covered calls, you lose money when the market pumps bigly and you’re permanently priced out of those gains, then if you buy back in you lose money when they dump. You can theoretically lose all your money selling covered calls that pump on expiration and dump when you buy back in.

>>52878353
So that chart shows how a standard 60/40 portfolio is predicted to perform based on a couple fundamental factors such as P/E, average historical return, and average yield curve spreads. It then compares this data to the actual overall 12-year performance of a 60/40 portfolio from that point in time. So if you held a 60/40 SPY/Treasuries portfolio since 2008, that second line would be what you actually returned as of 2020

It means that all Hussman does is compare average historical returns for the index against P/E essentially, and sets up a “long-short” position by overweighting treasuries and lowering duration as necessary when equities are overvalued. It actually works well, Hussman was actually one of the highest performing hedge fund managers from 1994-2003 because he fucking longed stocks when everyone thought it was ridiculous and then went long treasuries at the bubble top.

>>52878357
Read the data yourself, the spikes on the orange line are spikes in actual market valuations, spikes on the blue line are implied divergence in market fundamentals

OOOOOOOOOOOOOH MUUUUMUUUU

>>52878352
not margin called.
He's saying you get assigned.

What he's saying makes sense only in the short term.

Yeah yeah your shares got called away (hopefully at a profit) why would you buy back in? just sell puts on that bitch until it drops back down and collect the premium.

>>52878365
>Just make better trades
well, yes. If you're running "the wheel" properly you should only be trading in stocks you're fine holding long term anyway, and you can't make emotional trades.

>If the trades work out, you lose extra gains
Don't sell options at a strike you're not comfortable paying for a stock or selling a stock at. Yeah you might lose out on some gains if the stock really pumps/dumps, but it's more consistent than buying a stock and hoping it pumps. The wheel is literally impossible to fuck up if you just follow the math, sell cash puts at a low price you're happy to pay for a stock, sell covered calls at a higher strike than you bought the shares for. It's that simple. If there's not a profitable strike to sell calls at, hold the stock until it goes back up. If you're trading in good companies, the company is not going to die.

>>52878380
These AI generated images are too fucking strong

>>52878341
Wait he is rich, why is he taking high risk moves when he can already make a lot passively?

>>52878424
bonds would have been raped this year anyway. anyone doing 60-40 was down 30% on both bonds and stocks it didnt matter.

>>52878380
oh i know. really this is all a consequence of the discovery of The Pill, to be fair. women's sexual liberation is against nature, and we're paying for that now, clearly. but nature will correct everything, in time. my point is that they're not going to murder everyone. they don't have to. bill burr had a bit about this and paying people to get sterilized i think, even.

>>52878409
But that shouldn't matter if have the shares to cover calling? I mean, I don't necessary make money but at least my losses are limited cash flow -wise versus selling uncovered calls where I'm potentially exposed to unlimited downside risk.

>>52878365
That's what I was looking for, like picking up good ol' pennies in front of a HFT-steamroller, you are guaranteed to get fucked in the long run.

>stock market dumping every other day
>crypto stable

>>52878450
It's never enough anon.

>>52878341
>>52878440
>>52878472
This. What they don't tell you is that option selling is a negative skew strategy. Lots of small wins, high success rate but then big losses that wipe away all your gains. This flies against internet trading orthodoxy who all will tell you selling puts on high IV stocks is the winrar and it is.. until it isn't. Market makers aren't in the business of buying anybody's covered calls or puts for a price that has a positive expected value. This goes for credit spreads too. Again, high win rate but when the losses come they will be big. It doesn't matter if a credit spread wins 19 times out of 20 if the 1 loss is bigger than the 19 wins.
You can easily do an expected value calculation on any credit spread. Take pic related as an example. The delta on the short call is 0.5344 meaning you roughly have a 53.44% chance of it going in the money and a 46.56% chance of it expiring worthless. So if you run this trade 100 times you will make 46.56 times max profit of $267 which equals $12431 and you will lose 53.44 times $233 which equals $12451. A net loss of $20.
Market makers are not your friend so this assumes you get the best possible mid-price fill. Fat chance on that happening. This is a simplified calculation with some assumptions but do the work and calculate the expected value on any spread and the results will be the same albeit more refined. This includes any variation of the wheel which is just a form of selling puts which usually have higher expected value than the covered calls anyway

>>52878348
The time to buy was at the 200wma dummy.
Right now you are buying against the indicator.

>>52878451
Long term bonds anon, people are down 30% on long term bonds. If you adjust the 40 portion to be sensitive to divergence in the yield curve, you would be all cash in January 2020 according to Hussman, and you would be outperforming everyone with a stellar -5% inflation adjusted return

so the CPI and FOMC days were a massive bull trap huh?

>>52876991
LMFAO

>>52878450
I'd guess he has a high income wagie job like doctor or software. He already has the social status from the job and can use debt to buy nice things like a Tesla. So his next step is really rich.

From his wagie life he thinks he has practical ability but past taking tests and showing up to work each day he can't succeed at a really competitive objective pursuit

>>52878494
OPEX is providing a very strong gamma magnet around 4000.
Good chance we trade between 3900 and 4100 until next week.

>>52878440
The problem with the wheel is that is generally underperforms a buy-and-hold strategy. Even on something that generally goes up, like SPY. Link below is one example. I still have yet to find any legit backtesting that shows the wheel outperfoming buy-and-hold.
https://spintwig.com/tag/wheel/

>>52878472
Yes it's safer to run CCs and CSPs versus naked options. The problem is that you're limiting potential gains by using CCs and debit spreads.

>>52878488
I'll be honest, I have no idea what the point you're making is.

Don't sell credit spreads with a delta of 0.53?
If the sort call had a delta of 0.3 then the math would work in your favor no?

>>52878476
I'm totally into that.

>>52878529
Real men do backspreads

>>52878530
The point I'm making is there are no credit spreads anywhere on the option chain where the market maker will sell the spread to you with a positive expected value. This means the longer you trade credit spreads the closer your results will regress to the mean expected value which for you is negative. You will lose money in the long term. As simple as it is. The strategy is negative skew. Lots of small wins punctuated by larger losses that overwhelm the gains. It's basically blackjack for stock traders. The house advantage is tiny but it is definitely there. The high win rate is what makes it so seductive and ropes people in thinking they can beat the market farming premium. What I'm suggesting is find some positive skew strategy and focus on that instead. Find some way to trade with small losses punctuated by big wins. That's the first thing you should look for in your trading not pissing around trying to game market makers which is a guaranteed loser

>>52878476
crypto has no volume while stocks have normal or increasing volume.

crypto will probably never recover.

>>52878491
well the TA method seems semi competent to the astrology other people post here, but i really just dont trust any magic line and you wont ever catch me buying a bond (i am not gay)

>>52878529
>The problem with the wheel is that is generally underperforms a buy-and-hold strategy.
Exactly this. The reason is all the option selling has negative expected value. The reason people "profit" with the wheel is when stocks go up but they would have made more with a simple buy and hold

>>52878572
>astrology

>>52878572
It’s not TA it’s fundamental analysis based on fundamentals such as market cap and price to earnings.

Hussman also says the best historical bonds returns have been when rates are above the feds inflation indicator PCE. Buy bonds when that happens or you’re massively gayer for not buying them

>futures

>>52878591
Bonds are for losers

>>52878530
Here's a different example. This is a bull put spread. You want SPY to be above $380 at expiration. Your max gain is $10, and max loss is $90. That means when running this trade over and over, you have to win more than 90% of the time to win. The delta (not shown in pic) at $380 is 11. Which means you have an 89% of success of winning the trade. So you need more 90% to break even, but only get 89%. You'll lose more than you win.

>>52878599
Salty last lien holders will never know the joy of locking in gains for free, I’m sorry but you just lose to first lien chads

>>52878611
Just feels like unless you need to allocate billions it's pointless or your goal is just to barely out perform spy

>>52878630
you realize bonds have made massive capital gains in line with the market the past months right? they can valuate in price just as much. some have a YTM of over 30% at the moment

>>52876964
The upstairs jew is making some different noises after coming back from the meeting he had to go to.

>>52878602
Good one. And to make it worse you have to get in and out of the trade perfectly each time to even get the odds that good. Which you won't. It's not hard to find options here and there that appear to have slight positive expected value at the mid-price except you won't get that mid-price either going into or coming out of the trade. There are many enticements market makers use but again they aren't a charity, they are running a casino

>>52878529
>>52878564
>>52878602
I see.
You limit your profits, because you don't hold the stock when it goes up, but you still effectively incur the same losses since you hold the stocks when it goes down.

And you pay more in taxes.

Back to buy and holding.

>futures

>>52878630
The two key concepts you are missing are 1: you get to allocate billions by borrowing money to buy them. Now generally yes you will not be able to borrow at a low enough rate to buy a profitable spread, but throw some leverage in there and your 5% yield is now 10%, that’s more than it costs for a loan on a portfolio/house right now. So you borrow against your portfolio when conditions are right and suddenly you have a free 2% income stream for 20-30 years. 2: that’s assuming rates stay high, if rates plummet after you buy, say 5% to 2%, you’ve just made 60% on your 30 year bonds.
Fixed income has a place in your portfolio anon.

>futures

>>52876964
This is concerning me. As a non brown person am I not welcome here?

>>52878680
They are trying to protect you from the passive index bubble. Buy debt or buy stocks directly

>>52878658
Just to add a tiny bit to this you may look at all this expected value stuff and think well if selling credit spreads is negative then surely buying debit spreads must be positive since it's just the other side of the trade. Here's the issue. If you look over enough of these trades you'll see the expected value is always very close to 50/50. There's a reason for that. No matter which side of the trade you try to take the market maker will only take the other side if he has positive expected value. You'll try to open the trade and it'll just sit there until you adjust your price. When you adjust your price enough where the trade goes through you'll know that's the price where the market maker calculated your expected value is negative. The fact so many people miss this point and the internet is chock full of wannabe option sellers is astounding

>>52878385
Useless eaters are what the commisars call the people who can no longer hoe the fields. You know, boomers.

>>52878720
If you’re trying to play as a market maker sure, I would guess most people buying spreads have a fundamental market thesis they want to play out though. Good market timing > options pricing, assuming IV isn’t retarded

>EU CPI tomorrow
Its dumping isnt it?

>futures

>>52878762
>If you’re trying to play as a market maker sure, I would guess most people buying spreads have a fundamental market thesis they want to play out though. Good market timing > options pricing, assuming IV isn’t retarded
Unfortunately based on the statistics of successful vs unsuccessful retail options traders I'd say the vast majority would do better just buying and selling randomly rather than relying on their own theses. At least with the former they'll lose their money more slowly. That said if you're of the rare breed who can consistently time markets then options are a good way as any to get some leverage. That said if you can't make your trading plan work with simple buying and selling of underlying shares then no amount of number fucking will make it work with options. Options can increase the gains for an already profitable strategy but they will only magnify losses if the strategy is bad and most people have fuck all idea of what they're doing

>>52878720
What do you think about SPY/QQQ LEAPS? Deep ITM with 2 years until expiration.

>>52878823
Bought now, would we worthless in 4 months

>>52878817
Agreed, if you’re going to lose money anyway with a repetitive strategy to trade, you will just lose it quicker with options. No amount of options will somehow turn a strategy viable.

>>52878564
If it's long-term losing strategy how is JEPI a thing?

>>52878817
yeah most trades i look at for options the expiry is breakeven for my price target and im better off buying shares.

i am kicking myself for not buying meta $100 calls after it bounced from $90. i was shilling meta here for a while too but pussied out because i already owned a metaverse ETF.

i could have made triple my purchase in 2 weeks and nearly hit my price target of $130 11 months earlier than expected

How's it going, delusional bulltards?
>muh taper
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

i sold my puts early and i have a zit on my eyelid. worst day ever

>>52878863
JEPI locks in guaranteed gains, even with DRIP they take 100% of the downside and lock in relatively minuscule gains on the upside. Buying JEPI is something you want to do if the markets going to crab for a considerable amount of time, as they lock in let’s say a 10% gain and then the market crabs for 0%, so you win bigly compared to everyone else

>>52878863
Jp Morgan is smarter than us. Probably.

>>52878823
If you can consistently time markets then leverage will increase your gains. It's not alpha per se but beating the market by magnifying beta is certainly viable and some people do it. Be careful though since again, this is not alpha. Your risk adjusted returns will typically be lower than a simple unleveraged buy and hold and this bears repeating IF YOU CAN CONSISTENTLY TIME MARKETS this will work. Most people can't. You probably can't
>>52878863
JEPI has only been around since June 2020

ESGbros… I don’t feel so good

>>52878890

>>52878951
>>52878959

>Here is the deal, my administration will go down in history as making one of the best energy trades of all time. Buy low, sell high folks!

every single sector except energy and utilities just crossed over into red MACD on the 4 hour
tech, real estate, materials, industrials, health care, financials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, communications
we are going much lower - they are all just getting started
every sector just started the down wave
I still do not trust the market making for this triple witching. They will do whatever it takes to prop up SPX to 4,000 so that they don't have to pay out the massive open interest centered around 4,000 SPX and 400 SPY
Expecting very fake market manipulation, potentially even at 3:00pm tomorrow, just to force SPX above 4,000
but then the downtrend resumes
maybe there is too much going on for them to be able to manipulate it, with very little catalyst to try and blame/pin the manipulated move on for it to appear organic
go pull up the 4 hour chart for all these sectors - it is brutal

>>52878951
It's hilarious watching these zoomers and young millennials pikachu face when they realize their employer is really a long failed business model only propped up by unprecedented fed balance sheet expansion, low interest rates, and the western civilization killing social ambitions of dipshits like Larry Fink. Now reality is setting in ESG is being exposed as the fraud it is and all these "day in the life" TikTok posting thots are getting put out on the street. Maybe start an OnlyFans or something. Selling ass will work to the end of time

Should I switch my SPXL to SPXS? lol. lmao even

Is there a reason not to go all in into TMF right now since it is under 10?
Once jpow start cutting the interest rate next year, it is gonna shoot up straight to 20. This seems like a sure bet. Is there any risk that I am overlooking?

>>52879002
Oh you know, the usual reasons like a severely negative nominal yield and a historically deep curve inversion. I’m sure you’ll be fine and won’t lose your money

>>52878981
>go pull up the 4 hour chart for all these sectors - it is brutal
sounds like you already had it pulled up
why didn't you just cap it

Theme https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBwAxmrE194

>>52879002
I don't have an opinion on where long term treasuries will be next year but volatility decay means TMF will likely underperform TLT leaps with equal leverage even accounting for theta decay so I'd probably just buy the latter instead

>>52879002
>Once jpow start cutting the interest rate next year
Remember when everyone and their mother said fed can't raise above 2% because the system would break? Look where we are now.

>>52879002
tmf is 20+ yr treasuries. long duration is much less impacted by the overnight rate. its possible that the big move in tmf has already occurred.

>open r/wsb just to analyze normie sentiment
Was not expecting this much cringe. They are so unfunny its painful.

I feel like shorting oil today. What's some of the best ways to do it?

>>52878678
why did the jews do this to the west bros

>>52879060
Just typical lifecycle of a subreddit, too much exposure turns it into normiecore.
I remember when they used to pay some 5/10 indian hoe to strip while reading finance news on youtube

>>52879090
You know why

>>52879090
immigration=better economy long term, it must be done.

>>52879083
Either SCO or NRGD. Make sure you pronounce that last one correctly when you call your female broker lest she laugh at you and hang up without filling your order. Or open a futures account and sell /CL contracts like a man

>>52879108
we all know that's not true

>>52879090
Why are they the destroyers, the persecutors, the vampires, and the synagogue of satan?

>>52879083
You will beclown yourself anon

>>52879114
it is though, benefited the US quite a bit, cheap labor and drives up spending+birth rates. i'm not saying i'm for it, but its just how things are.

>>52879090
KILL WHITEY

>>52879020
it's 11 sectors.. but I did it anyway, and compiled it into this image, just to spoonfeed you

>>52879157
It's ogre

>>52879157
>>52879020
>>52878981
every sector is crossing over into red MACD; downtrend
every sector is overextended, still within range, not oversold
there is huge room to downside

>.03 cent dividend from MGM just hit my account

Feels good to be in the dividend gang

>>52879020
He wants you to buss your own caps because he ain't suss.

>>52879135
I'm gonna do it, ugh, I know, I KNOW, Im sorry, I'm just gonna short oil is all

>>52879060
It has its moments

>>52879140
Ok boomer

>>52879157
If only I had a nickel for every individual line in that image...

>>52879140
>cheap labor and drives up spending
that's short term
>+birth rates
are negative not positive for the long term as the children are born into poor families and rely on the gibs they're eligible for

you're not even trying

>>52879090

Cause they'd rather risk ruining it than losing control of it, and they think this is what keeps them in the driver's seat. Ironically it will only make things worse for them, but there's a reason for the 109 countries thing: they don't really learn from their mistakes lol.

could you fellows recommend me some books or other resources? im tired of getting my ass fucked by red dildos

>>52879192
The Mormons will have to save us

>>52879157
>>52879168
Okay so you're saying the lines indicate an imminent drop in price but the options dealers would rather the price didn't drop and are going to encourage price upmoving instead of downmoving

>>52879198
Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Read it until you memorize it. Then all the Market Wizard books. Then, and here is the one nobody suggests, read A Deepness in the Sky by Vernon Vinge. It's a sci-fi space opera but it revolves around a civilization of interstellar traders called the Qeng Ho and their mindset how they approach business and their "customers". A whole philosophy of the Trader Way is expounded on in the story and some of the lessons are solid gold. It's wrapped up in a good enough narrative to keep it interesting. That's the book I read right before I became profitable

>>52879242
capped, thanks friend

>>52879216
It wasn't the best time but by golly did we blow past those levels like they were nothing...

What happened at 8:15?
Why is there a sudden dump during premarket?

>>52879198

My DAX short is green again bros

>>52879083
Sell your oil well to your neighbor.

>>52879262
I think a report is a out to drop

>>52879225
>the lines indicate an imminent drop in price
Yes
every sector is now going into a downtrend, with huge room below; no sector is oversold, no sector is out of range, there is no "oh we're oversold here, shorts are bound to cover and we'll get a relief rally" - we have a long way to go before we get to that point
>options dealers would rather the price didn't drop and are going to encourage price upmoving instead of downmoving
Yes
this option expiration tomorrow is huge, very important, quarterly expiry, triple witching expiry of stock options, index futures, index futures options
there is huge open interest, huge collar trade(s) by institutions like JPM
they do not want the price to go below 4,000 SPX 400 SPY for this expiration - there is too much open interest right around this round number
that is not to say that it will not go below 4,000 by expiry - there is too much going on right now with central bank announcements worldwide for them to be able to manipulate it with ease; but do not be surprised whatsoever if they do, or if they try to pin it as close to 4,000 as possible
they do not want the market to fall sharply before expiration tomorrow; they would lose too much money
so the market will be propped up - either in that we won't fall as much, or we will crab, when we should be dumping hard
after expiration ends then the real move can happen, after they've gotten out of the way

>>52879289
No, just very temporary short

>>52879262
Could have been BoE doing a 50 bepis
>>52879289
Just buy the property next to his and slurp from below :))))

>>52879296
So what's your educated guess as to what will happen to let's say, SPY, today?

WHOA BLACK BETTY

So what the fuck actually happened yesterday at 2pm ET?

>>52879314
crab around these levels, or end very slightly higher (current price $394.95)
there is a very, very low chance that we break $390
if we move below $390 option dealers would lose a fuck ton of money
more likely that we stay within $395 to $400
we will not break $400 either, as the selling will ramp up as we approach / cross $400
they want us to stay right here
I do not think it makes sense to trade anything 0dte if that is what you are considering
don't get me wrong, anything is possible, we could end up dumping hard, and due to their positioning they'll have to short sale stocks to remain delta neutral
but it seems very unlikely to me
more likely we just pin here through expiry

>>52879347
are you for real?

>>52879352
Absolutely

>>52879347
Powell press conference nigga

>>52879347
Burgers had their third breakfast

>>52879347
FOMC meeting silly man
JPow whoa black betty'd into the mic, showed his dick and walked off stage

>>52879356
then you are a bonafide retard and you need to take a good look at this post and think about what you have done

>>52879321

>>52879348
So 1dte butterflies?

>>52879364
>showed his dick and walked off stage
Someone said he mentioned "anime being real" Is this true?
I know the dick part, I've got pics. But what did he ACTUALLY say about anime being real?

>>52879360
>>52879362
>>52879364
>>52879368
He literally said nothing new.

>muh higher terminal rate
That was disclosed two days prior.

What the fuck is this shit? There was practically no new information yesterday, not even new tone. If there hadn't been an FOMC meeting, the market probably would have just crabbed. But no, of course the ENTIRE MARKET has to take a huge shit in unison literally ten seconds after the report comes out - nice one, totally rational market you have here. Bears are just lucky at this point, you have no idea what the fuck is going on.

>>52879401
you asked what happened. That is literally what happened. grow up

>>52879413
It's not an adequate explanation. The question is "why did the entire market take a shit in unison ten seconds after a report came out that contained no new information?" and bears have no answer other than SEE LOL WE TODL YOU

https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-retail-sales-06-vs-01-expected-20221215/
>US November retail sales -0.6% vs. -0.1% expected
>The soft reading on the control group along with a negative revision is a sign that the consumer isn't as strong as thought. We heard from airlines this week as well that bookings aren't as brisk as hoped for....Also, big ticket items like electronics and furniture are often forward-looking indicators for consumers and both continue to stumble
but bad news is good news, right anon??
surely this won't negatively affect Q4 earnings?? :^)

>>52879409
>rational market
The entire point of "bull, bear and crab" market is that it's not rational, but instinctual and emotional.

>>52879347
>So what the fuck actually happened yesterday at 2pm ET?

>>52879425
it was official whereas the previous was only "projected"

>>52879413
So what happened is news from two days prior suddenly caused a massive dump at 2pm two days later?

>>52879425
>after a report came out that contained no new information?
???
do you only pay attention to 50 vs 75bps?
we spoonfed you for weeks that what mattered was the dot plot, the summary of economic projections, the terminal rate, how high for how long
this all came out yesterday - this was new information
why do you think we dumped

>>52879409
Currently these two ideas are on pause and have been since March 2020:
1. "Markets are forward looking"
2. "X is priced in when known in advance"
SIMPLE AS
If QT stays for a while we could recover 1. PIVOTOOORS capitulating recovers 2.

>>52879448
see this too >>52879449
and then stop being a fucking autist

>>52879446
Terminal rates are never "official", they're constantly adjusted as time goes on.

JPow literally went on record two days before the FOMC meeting saying the terminal rate was going above 5%, but somehow this news only hit two days later, at a very specific hour.

>>52879449
>>52879409

>RBLX
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

>>52879428
Yup
Less demand = less inflation
We killed inflation, we won. They will cut their rate we will start another golden bull run
Since when did bad news = bad news? This shit is pure market manipulation

>futures
So what happened with the santa rally?
It's still happenin,right?

>>52879448
>market reacts to powel speaking
no. how could this be happening? there is no reason for this, he said nothing new

>>52879449
>we spoonfed you for weeks that what mattered was the dot plot, the summary of economic projections, the terminal rate, how high for how long
Literally nothing new was said in reference to any of this.

>>52879488
>Powell speaks on the 12th
>"I sleep"

>Powell repeats on the 14th what he said on the 12th
>"IT'S HAMMER TIME"

>Literally nothing new was said in reference to any of this.

>>52879436
Okay nice keep being an apologist for Big Money assholes who continue to fuck the market up with schizo algorithms and idiotic speculation.

>>52879446
So?? Anyone who pays any attention whatsoever to any of this knows that "projected" is carefully worded jargon to give the Fed an out if something changes

>>52879449
The dot plot is nonsense, always has been. Economic projections has essentially been the same all year, terminal rate is a nothingburger, and Powell even said a few dovish things about how high for how long. He was literally repeating himself from the last meeting at some points, some of the question and answer section was even identical. It's ridiculous to think that anything anyone said yesterday was new information, let alone information worthy of a massive selloff

>>52879472
Isn't it obvious that you should short RBLX? No one plays it, anymore. User base grewup a fuckin screwup, now they're all tiktok retards and edging on starting OF accounts

>>52879505
Is that real?
asking for a friend

>>52877096
Working for free would make me want to blow my brains out unless it was some kind of internship with a promise of full time big boy employment at the end of the tunnel.

>>52879491
>>52879506
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fomc-dot-plot-and-central-tendencies-from-dec-2022-meeting-eoy-2023-48-20221214/
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-hikes-50-basis-points-as-expected-20221214/
it was different, and it was important new information
you can shove your head in the sand all you want going LALALALALALA YOU DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING NEW WHY ARE WE DUMPING
but even the most basic glance between what was put out in September to what was just put out you can see with the naked eye the differences
the market is forward looking, new information for policy in 2023, 2024, 2025 came out, with rates higher for longer

>>52879544
>it was different, and it was important new information
What was?

>Retail sales drop to worst data of the year
>Jobless claims drop to 11 month low
So
Everyone is employed
But no one has enough money to buy anything
And JPow says no rate cuts for 23
Boys, it's gonna get fucky

>>52879506
>big money assholes who fuck the market up
Have you considered buying a solid company and watching the green line go up?

>>52879513
There's the one mentally ill guy in his mid 20s in my town that comes and plays roblox all day on the public library computers every day, and I know of a lot of mentally ill 20 somethings who still play it that I've seen online.

> OIL

>>52879547
for 2023 5.1% instead of 4.6% prior
for 2024 4.1% instead of 3.9% prior
for 2025 3.1% instead of 2.9% prior
it's literally right there in the image, if you had clicked the link

>>52879544
Bro I honestly cannot believe how insane bears have been about all this. For the last two years it's been "lol the Fed is a bunch of liars I don't believe anything they say" and suddenly you trust the dot plot, of all fucking things?? Do you remember them saying they flat out would not hike rates in 2022?

>>52879547
>>52879506
could you retards go shit up some other board?

>>52879571
>for 2023 5.1%
That's what Powell said on December 12.

>>52879552
Wtf is this simulated spy

Wouldn't it be funny if we end up green today? Check em

>>52879591

>>52879590
I googled "SPY index" and picked the first image idk it gets the point across though.

>>52879591
>green
Not a change clown faggot,at best we get a fun crab

can't tell the retards from the bots anymore, shit is getting real

>>52879518
don't look for the kfc fried chicken fleshlight either, it doesn't exist
haha

>>52879552
Yeah totally, I've been dca'ing throughout this dogshit year. It's just insane how violently everything swings in unison, there's just very clearly some rampant speculation going on and it seems to be on autopilot. Take all of that trash out of the market and see what happens.

>>52879581
Fuck off faggot bear, can't wait for you to get heemed

>>52879580
How much money did you lose since just yesterday?

>>52879580
They'll "trust" whatever feeds their bobo confirmation bias.

Market Watch should fire whatever lazy asshole they pay to update their economic calander

>>52879480
I don't know, unrelated note would you buy into this?

>>52879610
Seems like a lot

>>52879615

New

>>52879630
>>52879630

>>52879580
>For the last two years it's been "lol the Fed is a bunch of liars I don't believe anything they say"
Idk what the fuck you're talking about. Any logical bear has said from the very beginning, "Do not fight the Fed."
If you're paying attention to people saying "Don't trust the Fed!! Fight the Fed!!" you're a retard
You should listen to the Fed, but take what they're saying with a grain of salt
for example, Powell saying at the conference last week that a soft landing was possible blah blah blah - that is them being afraid of a hard recession, and trying to coax / talk the market into a soft landing. It is alarming / concerning that he changed his language to a soft landing --- the more central bankers try to push X is happening, the exact opposite is the case
Do not fight the Fed - do not fight the crowd
The Fed has stuck to their forward guidance for the last 3 years straight, where they say they're doing X, and then they do X
and anytime that they decide that they will not do X, they send a report to Timiraos at WSJ to publish a report saying "Actually they're doing Y" - and the market instantly prices in Y


>>52879586
the market was pricing in cuts in 2023, where we would not see above 5%
the most recent, prior to the Fed, was under 5%
Powell can say at a conference, "I believe the terminal rate may be above 5%" but if it's not being priced in with federal funds futures etc, then the market is not pricing it in
by releasing it in the SEP / dot plot, it becomes more official, as every member has a vote, not just Powell
if all members are saying the same thing, of it being above 5%, it matters more than just Powell saying he sees it above 5%
the market prices it in
this is what happened
also you are neglecting the rates for 2024 / 2025 as if they do not matter at all
the market cares what interest rates will be in 2024 / 2025 for growth
if rates are higher for longer, there will be less growth

>>52879610
-12%. Could be worse, r-right?

>>52879619
>Market goes down in a recession
>I WOULDN'T BUY THAT
Looks cheap. Buy buy buy.

>>52879619
idk, update it

>>52879635
>the market was pricing in cuts in 2023, where we would not see above 5%
Weird, because Powell confirmed they're going above 5% two days before the crash.

>>52879571
Usury is a sin

>>52879659
use this.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
if you do not see it reflected in this, it is not being priced in.
Powell is just one vote. Yes he is powerful, can shape the views of the committee / steer the conversation, but he is just one vote.
when Powell makes a statement like this, you may see the Fed funds futures move, but not do the full price in
but then when you see 10 other voting members all saying the same thing, it can get fully priced in

>>52879686
>Powell is just one vote
>but then when you see 10 other voting members all saying the same thing, it can get fully priced in
This is complete horseshit.
Many times FOMC members have made dovish statements right before Powell speaks, and then Powell's statements completely nuke the market.

The market is dumping specifically to fuck me over and no other reason. I am the center of the universe. I have been bad and therefore will be punished. Sorry to you NPCs if you are caught in the crossfire.

>>52879616

>>52879720
An anon came on here 2 days ago suggesting sell everything and go all in VIXM. That was a good idea

Hi lads, is shorting Tsla free money or is it too late?

>>52879816
depends if space karen keeps dumping

Well, it's fuckin over. Merry Christmas.

good morning I hate women and the fed

just bake a new thread before market open

>>52878680
I collected that one on Nov 19th. They are trying to let you know that if she can gaze satisfyingly at her portfolio full of gambling earnings, then so can (You). It's that easy.

>>52879634
>>52879634
>>52879634
Get in here