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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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52869682 No.52869682 [Reply] [Original]

Markets are not happy with today's Fed dot plot, indicating an expectation of at least 75 bps of additional hikes, even though the economy is soft.

>> No.52869733

>>52869682
Even though many believe we've turned the corner on inflation, the Fed doesn't think so. Worrying.

>> No.52869744

>>52869682
Am I crazy or is having rates that high for that long absolutely unsustainable with all the debt that will update to it?

>> No.52869823

>>52869744
There are 30 year treasury bills, so at longest you have 30 years to completely roll off the lower rates and remonetize at the higher rates. They can afford to keep rates elevated for quite a long time, longer than people expect, and at the end of the day it's not their money to lose.

>> No.52869958

>>52869823
Most of the debt is in much shorter bills though. Ill try to find the ratio now.

>> No.52869993

>>52869744
>>52869958
I found this. Most of the debt is in Treasury Notes, which have 2-10 year maturities.
Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/current.html

>> No.52870051

>>52869993
its because nobody is buying the feds bluff and they will end pivoting eventually and maintain a 5% inflation, which will be considered "the new normal"

>> No.52870084

>>52869993
Yeah from what i could see about half come under bills that are around 3.4 years. So you're right they have some room to play. I still think it makes them keeping them so high into 2024 unlikely given a substantial amount will have rolled over by then.

>> No.52870104

>>52870084
*the mean is 3.4 years.

>> No.52870331

>>52869682
Also a technical note: The numerical value of a dot used in calculations is the midpoint of the corresponding policy range. So for example, if a dot represents the 5 - 5.25 range, the numerical value is considered 5.125.

>> No.52873117

>>52869733
>we've turned the corner on inflation
we have not you insufferable child

>> No.52873137

>>52870051
>The fed is bluffing, will pivot and accept high inflation because uh... BECAUSE I SAID SO OK!?!
lol no

>> No.52873646

>>52870051
>they will end pivoting eventually
Yeah in 2024.

>> No.52873663

>>52873137
It’ll bankrupt itself either way newfag

>> No.52873680

>>52873646
By that time the debt will be $50 billion or more

>> No.52873683

>>52869744
what was unsustainable was 0% for YEARS

>> No.52874092

>>52869682
Great. So this is the new chart we'll be seeing on /biz/ for the next year now that CPI is not as shiny.

>> No.52874815

>>52873663
>nwfag
>says the retard who fell for the interest rates above 3% will collapse the us meme
kek

>> No.52875020
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52875020

>>52873683
it made the commoners too powerful and they got uppity