/biz/ - Business & Finance

Price pumping but open interest decreasing? top kek

Thanks for buying my big sell walls retarded retail liquidity you will be more fuel for us in the way down.

>>52824310
I've been playing so much prison architect lately I said "oh all his prisoners are fed he must have a solid kitchen/canteen system"

Red ID is not a coincidence
Inflation MoM expectation and what's priced in is %0.3 but forecasts from TradingEconomics and Cleveland FED Nowcast is %0.5, Job data and PPI data can only support these forecast that inflation will come in a lot hotter than expected, might even make the FED raise the interest rate 75bps instead of 50bps one last time.

>>52824362
crab wins.

Some retards can argue that Put/Call Ratio is high so market makers will fuck the majority but the CPI data day (13th) isn't even high volume/OI compared to end of year 16th which has 60x more OI than the CPI or FED day and that one has 1.87x Put/Call Vol Ratio. And seeing how it has 100x more volume than any other average day those positions are from the market makers and big guys themselves who have the money and power to move the market in their desired ways. If it was any other circumstance i might have said "yeah they'll probably fuck the puts if they are so much more higher than calls" but not EOY.

>>52824362
You make a cute lil bitch

We are seeing an Open Interest decrease like we haven't seen before in BTC. After the scam pump to 17.4k in December 5th, the Open Interest in Binance decreased almost %30 while bringing the price back to 16.7k

Open Interest decreasing while price also decreasing? That means longs were closed instead of shorts opened. Absolute whale tier guys possibly even Binance itself closed their longs now have that OI/Volume at the sides waiting to possibly open huge shorts with them instead as they have already closed their longs and create the next megadump.

>>52824452
Notice the OI didn't even change this much during the FTX dump as that was more unexpected, more chaotic and uncertain but now it is all planned.

I suppose i'll also throw in the meme line that everyone must know already but still "this time it will be different" righT?

>>52824310
>>52824327
>>52824339
>>52824362
>>52824407
>>52824452
>>52824479
the real question is DID YOU SHORT, if so post position
if not you should probably shut the fuck, talk is cheap, taking action is not

>>52824512
See you below 16k again

There are a lot of calls expiring jan that can act as magnets if we move up, but rn so many puts for dec opex and quarterlies that could act as magnets. I still think we’re range bound between 4270 and 3600, we need a stronger bear narrative, the old one has lost steam.

>>52824339
what type of mental disorder is needed to use this view?

>>52824835
It's a program called Bookmap i believe it also has a web version
https://web.bookmap.com/
but it lags on my browser so program is better.
Great for order flow analysis.

>>52824784
That was supposed to be the last paragraph, here was the beginning:
I’m sitting this cpi out because of the fomc after, might buy some far otm put spreads though to gamble in case the floor gives out. At the same time I could see a weird pinning through cpi if oi picks up for 12/13 and 12/14 over the next few days. One of the days will move it though.
Moving on cpi would be a great frontrun and take many by surprise. Pic related is from adam mancini, points below bull case are defintiely reasonable landing places.
Dumping then slowly grinding up into next earnings would be very painful for many people. Only puts bought and sold within a couple days can escape a dump and grind up, bulls still fucked going into 2023 even if we grind up.
Pumping on cpi before jpow seems really unlikely imo, dumping before jpow did happen in june.

>>52824858
I feel we'll get both the moves to the upside and to the downside on two different days (CPI and Fed) so if we go down in CPI we pump in FED and vice versa

>>52824533
lmao, you'll be liquidated by eod

>>52824952
I have a stop loss below entry fag

Meds you schizo bobo

>>52824964
is it a defensive or a naked?

>>52824964
enjoy getting stopped i guess. i'll never understand people who short/sell in uptrend

>>52824993
>Insane scam wick to the point price saw above 17503 and cleared all the stops and crunched the liquidity, looking at such a third world shitty exchange the price got to 17503 in the first place where in Binance it didn't even wick higher than 17270, takes that as a higher high and counts that as uptrend

zoom out and use a better exchange fag

>>52825018
>a third world shitty exchange
bro, you're literally trading that exchange's made up tokens, aka udst...

that said, it's still in uptrend everywhere, cope and seethe

>>52825068

>>52825092
bro, you don't even know what's hhll means... it's in uptrend until the previous low is broken. i know it's pretty fun gambling 10$ on scamwicks, but next time avoid making a thread about it on /biz/

>>52825118
>thinks his red candle that retraced from 17503 to 17100 in less than 10 minutes after pumping while open interest decreasing and getting rejected is bullish while also not seeing the head&shoulders forming in normal charts

>>52825147
>buzzwords
i'll laugh at you ITT in like 2-3 hours

>>52825147
its fine to take a short here. just be prepared for an outbreak on tuesday if cpi looks good

I'm staying flat for the rest of the month, caught all the scam pumps, but I can't bring myself to short
It seems too obvious, and I would like to see some of 18k+ liquidity get tagged

>>52825170
Yeah i agree i obviously won't hold my short if CPI looks good then i'd aim for 17.7k first and possibly even higher than 18k-19k
But i'm currently giving it a higher chance it comes hotter than expected than good.

>>52825203
you and every other retail trader.

>>52825164
So judging by your retarded logic you shouldn't long or be positive about price action until we get a higher high and a higher low sooo above 21k you long?

>>52825235
if you trade on 1w or whatever the fuck that resolution is then yes. i trade on 3h and we're in uptrend there

>>52825252
let me trade on the 15 minute
oh fug

>>52825317
15m is random, only newfags trade there

You do understand this is where we're going in the short term, yes? It's the most obvious recovery pattern. Expect a dump after.

>>52825370
finally a poster with a triple-digits iq

>>52825370
>>52825427
>triple-digits iq
>we'll just randomly go above the FTX dump after a month with no change in fundamentals or no major positive news with still uncertainty about the potential contagion and fallout of FTX like it never happened or those billion dollars were never lost

>>52825595
first month in crypto, huh

>>52825613
We are no longer in times when the global economic situation is positive where there is cheap and basically free credit where there are no eyes looking at any scammy behaviour or unlimited USDT minting to pump BTC.

>>52825645
Yeah the general direction is down/crab
But you're trading vs complete retards that want too long x100 the bottom
We might see a pitstop at 22k before we bart down to 15

>>52825817
Exactly this. Maximum pain comes after the > 20k rally.

>>52825817
Everyone thinks 15.5k was the bottom double or even triple bottom and some indeed longed there with high leverage so going even higher is just putting more bread on their table??

>>528243391
>order book volume between $17,090 and $17,290
>thanks for fueling my shorts on the way down
Down to where? 16,900?
Anyway enjoy your 5m charts and scalping 1% worth of price action

>>52824407
>>52824452
>normies aren’t buying so price will dump
Most retarded thesis I’ve ever seen. Whales always hide their positions so what your seeing here is normie capitulation and your acting like its bearish. If you weren’t boboposting in Jan then your dumb money, sorry to say.

>>52824533
>21x
Lmao no wonder your panicking.

>>52825370
Yes we’re going to touch the 200wma and 200dma at that range, I’ve known this since ftx dump and I’m fucking shocked that I haven’t seen anyone else mention it.

>>52826050
Yes all the sudden while we were pumping quite nicely to 17.4k %30 of all the normies decided to close their longs and decrease the OI by %30
>>52826060
I'm literally in profit?

Captcha: KYS4T8

>>52826122
Yes retail thinks this is the end of the line and is switching to short. If you think whales show you their positions on Binance OI then your a lobotimzed monkey.

>>52826122
OP I just need to say, your thread made me gay. Keep faggin on.

Kimba gang wya

99% of retail doesn’t even short

>>52826168
I mean honestly you're saying and believing that "yes indeed %30 of every retail at the same time all decided to close their longs while the price was pumping something that they didn't even do during the FTX crash news/panic or any time in history"
i don't need to say anything else to you

all you need to know that somebody on bitfinex has been buying 1 btc every minute for the last 6 hours. and he's still slurping

>>52826474
If he doesn't stop
>1440 BTC a day
> Approx. 25M$ notional value
Not even a quarter of the last 15 minute volume
But that's all i need to know and i should base my investing decision because someone has been buying every hour

>>52826247
You’re new and don’t yet understand how wonky these indicators are. No matter what I say you won’t learn anything unless you lose money so whatever.

>>52826548
>52826548
i'm not new fag i've been in this space since 2016 but we'll see i guess

>>52826806
These guys don't understand what's going on, no use talking to them. No matter what we say they won’t learn anything unless they lose money so whatever. kek

>>52824310
>before the CPI dump.
This is a bear trap. It looks obviously bearish and then they'll scam pump it later on this week

>>52827165
Post your short or kys
Nothing worse than people who don't put their money where their mouth is.

>>52827205
>Post your short or kys
You can't see further than that? I don't short, I just buy lower, and I'll be buying soon, so should you anon.
But here's OP's short to ease your rage >>52824533

>>52827165
I literally showed them with data and math that there was a scam pump (that wick before the dump) and we should expect this, i don't expect this dump to ease throughout this day.

>>52827253
Obviously these are buy zones. Only newfags don't dca at bear market lows. Historically speaking bear market (time wise) should be coming to an end (and by that I mean as far as the lows are concerned, not the crabbing).

>>52825172
Welp, I lied, that shitty bounce from 1260 was too tempting not to open a quick short

>>52827262
If you're in a trade whether long or short, the cpi and rate hike shit is going to fuck you on the 13th because it WILL bart both ways

>>52827294
It's so weak there isn't even a proper bounce even though 17k is major pivot zone

>>52827294
Holy shit, you guys are degens for trying to capture micro moves. Scalping is the quickest way to lose all your money

>>52827289
Again comparing previous bear markets is stupid because the whole economy was good back then and a bull market could easily get ignited so it probably won't be the same (time wise) also bottoms usually last few months at minimum not a fucking wick.

>>52827317
That's retarded logic. You don't just ignore history and also every bear marker is "always different!". It's not the same fucking shit that causes them, smoothbrain. All it is at the end of the day is jew noise aka they spin the narrative and you fall for it while they accumulate

>>52827317
Also you are objectively wrong about the bottoms.
Zoom out to the monthly time frame and measure the ath of past bull markets to the lows of bear markets. Those lows are wicks aka they never get touched again. That aside, you should also measure the amount of time it takes to reach it. Time wise we're in the typical amount of time it takes to reach the final low

>>52827349
What history lol you're talking like BTC has been in the market for 100 years and there has been 20 bear markets where we could take data from

also
>measure
19 weeks bottom basically at around the same price in 2018 btw

>>52827401
So if you compare it with the previous one because you love your history this is what it would look like, see you in April i guess.

>>52827310
I keep my size relatively small, and lowish leverage (max x10) when I see momentum
>>52827317
Sir don't you believe in the echobubble meme

>>52827438
Too early for the echobubble meme is my point

>>52827401
>What history lol you're talking like BTC has been in the market for 100 years and there has been 20 bear markets where we could take data from
Btc's history, dipshit. Stop acting stupid.
>noooo, it needs 100 years of data or I'm ignoring the data!
Stfu with this bullshit
>19 weeks
Did you process what I said? I'll repeat it. Read this time. 1. Go to the monthly time frame 2. Measure the ath to the bear market's exact low. Measure the amount if months it took for the 2013 bull market and the 2017 bull market. THEN count the amount of months we've been going down from the ath. Do it. Now.

Second of all you're a retarded hypocrite for saying "noo you need 100 years of data" and yet you post this shit LOL. You make no fucking sense

>>52827451
My point is literally you have 2 previous occurence of what you're claiming, 2013-2017 lol any statistics major will fucking laugh at you and i'm not being a hypocrite if you are actually 10 iq and believe your point with 2 previous data points then you might as well not be a hypocrite yourself and see that the previous bottom lasted 19 weeks around the bottom price level so it will do the same

>>52827478
>My point is literally you have 2 previous occurence of what you're claiming
Ya, on the macro that takes into account the whole bear markets length. Choose to ignore it like an imbecile if you want. I can't fix ignorance. I am working with bear market data available and you are basically saying "ignore it!! It hasn't been 100 years yet! Oh btw I'm gonna post data under 100 years worth, but you can't do that!"
LMFAO
>b-but I zoomed in so there's more than 2 points of data!!". You're fucking garbage at this. Also scalping is a meme

>>52824339
I've never seen a pic that conveys to me "troon-o-cam" as much as this fucking kek

>>52827527
*You're fucking garbage at this. Also scalping is a meme
^Tab didn't register. Not meant to be greentext

>>52827543
>Also scalping is a meme
Bitch, watch in awe as my long prints

>>52827543
Is ok fren. You're too smart for this board anyways

>>52827289
I dca. I do think crypto will reach aths and new aths eventually. But now...now's bobo time still, OP's analysis is pretty good.
Look, may we all get our lambos one day, alright? (although I prefer audi r8)

>>52824310
What website?

>>52827627

>>52827682
https://www.binance.com/en/futures/funding-history/4

>>52827708
Thanks for not being a faggot, OP

Possible further dump in 5 minutes

>>52824533
Thanks I'm gonna liquidate you tomorrow morning

>>52827742
I'll probably be out of this position by tomorrow morning with profits ez but please do long so you'll be more fuel for more dump

>>52827721
You trade super micro time frames like such a fucking degen. Have fun chopping your account up

>>52827795
Why the fuck would i chop my account there is 0 maker fee in MEXC and i have a great setup/strategy to scalp with high winrate i rarely get stopped and even if i do it's fine

>>52827812
> 0 maker fee in MEXC
That's not magic LMAO. Your trades can still go to shit
> have a great setup/strategy to scalp with high winrate i rarely get stopped and even if i do it's fine
Post your p&l
Friendly advice. I used to be a degen scalper in 2018. Guess what? Costed me retirement money in the form of opportunity cost. Scalping is a meme

>>52824533
LMFAO
>>52825252
retarded

>>52827845
0 fees help especially with leverage so much it's insane since with leverage your fee cost is also multiplied

I have my own indicator https://www.tradingview.com/script/deh02qg0-Attrition-Scalper-v2-0/
mostly use this and also couldn't give two shits about opportunity cost as i don't have too much inside anyways and i can basically live off of the small scalps that i do during the day as i live in a third world shithole with <300$ minimum wage

Have fun DCA'ing for years at times and then waiting some more years to maybe get a 5x.

>>52827892
1. You missed my point. Fees won't save a shit trade
2. scalping is not profitable. Post p&l
3. Not just dcaing btc. Alts are where the real money is at. Btc is just there to balance out the portfolio to account for the possibility of the alts flopping
4. Have fun getting negative rois thinking you can compound scalps successfully. In theory it sounds nice until you realize how rigged the market is. Especially on low time frames

>>52827930
Like i said i'm not even after compounding i can with a %95 accuracy even with the current low volatility market get at worst 50$ daily with a 5k$ balance and if i don't stop for that day i usually reach 200$ and with 50$ daily i can live like a king in my country

https://www.youtube.com/@TraderTVLive
Also i watch these guys everyday and all they do is scalp and they are profitable so if you failed at profiting from scalping that seems like a you problem or a skill issue. Most high frequency trading at wall street is also focused on scalping or arbitrage too.

>>52824533
Thanks for playing

>>52824339
victim of pseudo-complexity pseudo-intelligence delusion

>>52828021
victim of being a fag

>>52828046
imagine being so retarded you need a orderbook heatmap to trade. LMAO!

>>52828066
Imagine not doing any order flow analysis along with your normal ta and fa to find confluence

cpi is going to be 6.9-7.1% according to a new measure that has never been wrong for the past 6months

screencap this.

>>52828079
you are so retarded that you cant' see the massive bull flag on the daily and you think you can use multiple tools to make a good trade. bitch you cant see obvious shit. this fake out will take you out. this will be a lesson for you that will haunt you forever.

>>52828121

>>52828203
low IQ subhuman

>>52828232
seethe harder trading obvious chart pattern with low winrates that any retarded retail trader will jump in at the first sight and think they're going to make it while the market makers bait you into retarded positions and butt fuck you

>>52828269
>seethe harder trading obvious chart pattern with low winrates that any retarded retail trader will jump in at the first sight

i heard this from literally every low IQ noob who gets into trading. its crazy how all of you retards have the same mindset. and all of you lose. i love studying human psychology. the fact that the exchange UI and the indicators inflate your ego to think that you are some kind of super human and above normies while you are the lowest of the low in reality is pretty amazing to me.

>>52828269
So where the bottom though, I know whale with more than 100 btc have been selling while retailer with 1 btc are buying in.

>>52828599
short term probably retest of 16.6k then 16k overall later bottom will be around 13k i think

>>52828094
whats the source? thats well below forecast after PPI came in hot

>>52828603
>'i think'
walking back the confidence, ay?

>>52828678
I don't have a crystal ball to forecast that deep fag we'll have to see as price action develops

>>52828603
your beloved youtubers have been calling for 10k btc for 3 months. lmao!

>>52828673
truflation.

cpi lags after ppi.

>>52824452
also your whole theory here is pretty muddy. shorts decreased during the closing of interest. not longs. you're a moron, mate. and I'm saving you from yourself. Peak shorts happened at peak open interest, it troughed at bottom.

>>52828722
wouldnt that mean the PPI showed hot, so hot CPI would follow?

>>52828769
here's the model
https://twitter.com/noimwill/status/1592937198575239168?s=20&t=xj37OusUdJ5yzgkcVds_1w

Yeah, but I think the lag is longer.

>>52828762
You shouldn't look at long/short ratio but rather price, i've seen countless times OI changing quite a lot while long/short ratio stayed same Binance might be scamming that, But price is clear If OI Decreases while price decreases what does that mean? longs closing easy math

>>52824310
If CPI prints 7.1 or below everything is going to pop. Not because that's good, but because the lowest estimate on the street is 7.2

Yes. Clown world. I know.

>>52828823
is there a single source to see all the published estimates?

>>52828893
I just saw a twitter post with all the major banks and what they are estimating. numbers were mostly around 7.2, 7.3 but upwards of 7.4-7.6 I think

>>52824407
The reason the OI is so much larger on that date is because the market for that expiry has been open for like a whole year, unlike every other weekly expiry on that list.

>>52824784
Earnings coming up. Will be negative. Most companies have no idea what macroeconomics is. They just know their own business and do straight-line projections of growth for the wallstreet sell-siders

>>52824310
you've got balls to take a position here, I'll give you that

>>52830394
DXY bullish, stoch RSI on btc daily remain high. He basically has very low risk.

still uptrend

Trapped shorts you mean..

bitfinex bot still buying

>>52830788
I can't wait for the 50bp raise where it will scam pump and wipe out the retards. It will probably wipe both sides, but god damn cocky bears are more annoying than cocky bulls by a long shot.

>>52830796
>50bp raise
priced in

>>52824533
Hahahahahabahaha KEK. A fool and his money are easily seperated, or how did that ancient mongolian proverb go?

>>52824533
its ogre fren take profits

>>52824339
meth head

TA is fake and gay

>>52831152
swimming in profits