/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52814047
There will be the dump. And then an epic pump next year because investors are still loaded with cash and do not give a fuck what Jerome says.

>>52814048
oh fuck this is bad

>>52814048
Read this to me like I was born with sever autism

>>52814175
Market Expectation and Consensus = %0.3
What might possibly happen = %0.5

So if we get
%0.3 = crab/slight pump
%0.4 = crab/slight dump
Anything less than %0.3 = mega pump
Anything more than %0.4 = mega dump
A high reading might make the FED decision next week from a 0.5 increase to 0.75 which would absolutely crush the markets even further.

>>52814175
you don't want to know anon. its really bad

>>52814203
"next week"
when

>>52814211
CPI data is in Tuesday
FED interest rate decision is in Wednesday

>>52814233
checked
bless

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

Along with TradingEconomics, Cleveland FED Nowcast is also updated and it also points to a similiar result with a 0.47% inflation MoM expectation, while the markets are pricing 0.3%

>>52814242
Another massive problem here is also the Core CPI actually being higher than normal CPI. Markets are not expecting that mostly because oil/gas dumped most of November and even in the PPI data announced last week they were down like 3.3% and even then it couldn't save the PPI even though energy is a high weight part/cost of production.

In simpler terms
Core Inflation Yoy Expectation is 6.1% while normal Inflation Rate YoY Expectation is 7.3%
but Nowcast says Core is higher and that is frightening.
I would definitely leave the markets next week and take risk-off.

Just look at the October forecast vs October actual and you will know how much you can trust these forecasts lul

yeah doesn't take a mathematician to figure out what mean reversion is

>>52814242
This makes me want to panic

>>52814620
Why, I'm all in cash

>>52814657
do i just sell now take the loses and go all in cash?

>>52814696
sell now and see the forecast get rekt by low cpi %
in this game, you never win

>>52814701
>That would be a risk-free option because even if CPI data comes unexpectedly low and markets pump if you react fast you can buy back-in (at a higher price sure but it will pump quite a lot so you can recover your loss and gain some)

>>>52814696
This was one of the few CPI that is after the PPI and forecasts alone we also now have something solid to base off of, even with oil/gas prices coming down PPI was hotter than expected and that directly correlates to CPI.

>>52814733
so I should sell everything and load back up after the megadump? and checked

>>52814768
You either load back up after the megadump or realize it's a megapump and don't miss out.
Also my second 33 dub in this thread SPY 330 EOY

>>52814779
so I should sell now yes or no?

>>52814809
monday might be a scam pump before megadump so you might get a better price selling there but then again it might also front the megadump judging by how SPY closed and acted in the last hour. Holding cash seems to be the way so if you don't want to risk it sell if you can don't

>>52814843
>so I should sell now
yes or no keep it simple

>>52814875
Sell option would be more than %50 statistically so yes i guess

>>52814896
thanks . just sold everything

>>52815058
W-was this you?

>>52815090
yes. thanks for the advice

>>52815132
Don't thank me yet watch out for the CPI data announcement and be ready to buy back in if data is good.

>>52815163
but you already said that the data was bad. Should I buy back in now?

>>52815179
Data is bad hence the dump on SP500 Friday but if we know it for certain 100% we'd all be billionaires there is a slight chance it might come alright like it did in October but i'll give it a %80 chance it's dump time.

>>52815224
>%80 chance it's dump time.
good call anon

>>52815179
> Some random on a used chicken selling forum say you have a 51:49 of it dumping
> Yeah I'll sell it all, wait what do you mean it could also pump?
How do you even put your pants on in the morning?