/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52729030
Even the economist permabulls are capitulating, it's over

>>52729030
Sounds like a wild conspiracy to me incel.

>>52729030
We're already in a recession, what they're seeing coming is a Depression so large it will make 1929 look like a minor correction.

bottom confirmed

>>52729030
OH MY GOD, ECONOMISTS ARE LIKE NEVER WRONG BROS

>>52729109
A depression is going to start a world war

>>52729030
il have to check what the tv says on this one. sounds like misinformation

>>52729231
More like a bunch of civil wars.
WW3 will just be everyone having a civil war. No reason to fight in the army of a nation that hates you, after all.

nice, just bought. timing the bottom has never been this easy, bros

>>52729272
This sounds like the prologue of a successful triple A vidya.

>>52729030
Don't worry, they'll change the definition of a recession again and all will be good again.

not my problem

its not over yet, but the bottom is close

>>52729272
This. Modern warfare strongly favors the occupied over the occupier, and the defender over the attacker. The only alternative is full-blown genocide, which isn't workable under the MAD doctrine. Also, governments are at their weakest during wars, as deployed troops are unable to suppress the people at home (Tsarist Russia in WWI for instance), so the downside risk is too great for great powers. Finally, nobody can even afford WW3. The Great Depression was mainly a deliberate financial crash of a deliberate bubble. Today, the economic headwinds are material, so governments cannot simply deficit-spend them away. This is all while warfare is relatively more expensive than during WWII.

>>52732634
>Modern warfare strongly favors the occupied over the occupier, and the defender over the attacker.
It might only be this way when a world power is funding your defense. If 2 equal powers just fought it out, it's totally possible that alpha strike wins when you're the aggressor in modern times (think desert storm). We really don't know.

neat, makes sense since my company is finally considering layoffs and didnt even have to lay off anyone in 2020. glad someone told me

>>52729272
I do find it extremely hard to believe that the average american wants to die for the US, or that the average chinese wants to die for China.
Morale is at rock bottom across the board.

>>52729030
Buy signal

>>52729231
>>52729272
>>52732634
>>52733148
The biggest specter out there right now is the interruption of not only food exports out of Ukraine and Russia, but the interruption of fertilizers, and the energy required to make them in some places. North Africa and the middle east import(ed) most of their grain from Ukraine and Russia, and with them in a constant redlight-greelight fuck fuck game over black sea exports, no real tonnage is moving. The last time Russia had a really bad harvest and spike grain prices, it caused the bread riots US glowies co-opted into the Arab Spring uprisings.

Much scarier is that Belarus (the largest potash exporter) is totally sanctioned, China and India are no longer allowing phosphorus fertilizer to be exported from their borders, India is banning the export of certain grades of cereals, and Europe's giant Ammonia plants need huge amounts of power and natgas to operate (which they decided they want to sanction without having a replacement ready). Africa will feel this squeeze first: most of their farmland is marginal and they'll be the first priced out of fertilizer. Brazil is already warning the PRC that the entire harvests they bought the contracts for are going to be slim due to weather and low fertilizer availability. And this is all with functioning maritime security. We just watched a nation drone an oil tanker in the gulf of Oman for free. Tacitly, the US is done securing trade that isn't our or an ally's.

Welcome to the era of global population decline and constant brush fire wars, where the USA will sit back and sell top of the line hardware to the lucky few who can afford it, to use in battles over energy access and fertile soils.

>>52733328
America wins again

>>52733328
>repeating last years shill line
lol

>>52733328
priced in

>>52733422
Hey faggot, the gloom and doom posting you saw at the start of this year? Its actually coalescing in the real world your parents and the rest of us have to live in.

All the sanctions and trade disruptions out of eastern Europe didn't exist until March 2022. China announced its moratorium on phosphorus exports about 2 months later. A probably Iran-aligned actor blew a hole in a cargo ship not 700 miles from the headquarters of the fucking US CENTCOM and the USN just shrugged and said "not our problem". Meanwhile the Turks are massing on the border of what used to be Syria because they know Russia can't and won't be able to stop them. Meanwhile factory demand in China has cratered and jobs were kinda the only thing keeping the average bug from throwing a billion-man chimpout. Meanwhile Poland put in an order for 100 US MBTs, over 300 SK MBTs, and more rocket artillery from Seoul than exists in everyone's inventory combined. Meanwhile the French of all people are talking about how its high time they go out and use their expeditionary capability to secure the resources they need.

You live in interesting times, Timmy. Get used to it.

>>52733611
I want to believe this but still seems lofty. What do you predict the immediate future to be? I want to know and how to profit from it

>>52733719
I see the world economy getting a lot smaller, but America's piece of it getting far larger. I see the USA invoking executive authority to prevent the export of our crude oil onto the global market, which will trigger everyone else to stop sending their here since the whole supply will be in flux. US refining is actually setup to run on much heavier, more sour crude at the moment (one of the reasons Biden has been courting Venuzuela is that their oil would be easy to integrate into the supply). There will be 2-3 years of oil company bitching as they have to eat a loss to retool for operation on American crude supplies, notably the extremely light and sweet crude from the shale fields. Then they'll sit and laugh as the global oil price skyrockets and decouples from the American price and US refiners are the only ones that aren't forced to become state run operations.

Long US oil & gas, US chemical manufacturers, and the American agricultural sector (both farm REITs and equipment manufacturers), Aero/defense. FPI, LAND, Occidental, DOW, Eastman, Raytheon, Northrup, Rhinemetal, and Mitsubishi heavy industry.

>>52733611
imagine reading this shit, lol yolo

>>52733913
Thanks for the tips anon, I'll have to try and invest in those. didn't know there were farm reits. what's a fpi? I do need to start buying land, I have some cash on hand ready to buy, not a lot but alittle atleast.

>>52735601
There are two farmland REITs in traded on the American exchange. Farmland partners INC (FPI) and Gladstone Land Corp (LAND). FPI is heavily invested in row crops in the American mid west (grains/legumes/feed), while LAND is heavy into fruits and nuts, with most of their portfolio in CA, FL, and the Atlantic coast. LAND is interesting because they actually will only buy land that has a proven deep water table, and force the tenant farmers to actually have a plan to keep that reservoir level high in the soil.

REITs are probably going to get spicy in general since they have rules against divesting too quickly to make up for the low liquidity of the underlying RE. Should property start to correct, expect loads of angry idiots that didn't actually think about what sort of RE they were investing in. If you can't buy a property yourself, careful selection of an REIT in something positioned to take advantage of coming macro changes is the next best thing.

>>52735748
Here I thought you were just capitalizing land to emphasis it, haha. I appreciate the breakdown, I will have to check them out. I have a few reits in homes and commercial, probably should sell them. Haven't looked in awhile due to the volitility and watching loss porn isnt helpful unless it will change what you do.

https://medium.com/@8vofficial/best-time-to-start-dollar-cost-averaging-dca-crypto-is-now-f07da496f535