/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52695993
because it's real

>>52695993
Slowly then all at once

>>52696006

>>52695993
If the FED stops buying mortgage backed securities and continues to raise rates we'll likely see some fall in real estate prices. Large swaths of the population have to start defaulting on their mortgages for there to be a big crash and I don't see that on the horizon.

>>52696206
>Large swaths of the population have to start defaulting on their mortgages

Source? I'm not seeing it on Fred.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS

i could give her a montly wage of 200€ to clean my ass with her tongue and peg me with massive dildos if she wants

she could'sleep in my house too and i will feed her bread and water

>>52696244
My point was that large defaults are necessary for a large crash to occur. Notice the chart go straight up in 2008? Doesn't look like that's happening today.

>>52696312
Next year would be my bet, all these normies crushed under variable interest debt including CC and home equity lines gonna get killed.

>>52695993
>Why hasn't the real estate market collapsed yet?
The housing market won’t crash unless something else BLOW UP, such as massive layoffs or massive increases in food prices. And I’m not talking about diversity hires getting laid off.
>But Anon, the housing market doubled in 2 years; how can you say that?
Because most people bought it long before COVID, they refinanced to never seen before interest rates. About 90% to 95% of homeowners with a home mortgage have an interest under 4%. I know a guy who has a 2.75% interest rate.
Let's pretend, you are the average homeowner who bought before COVID with a $300k loan at 3%. You are thinking about moving (New Job and a Nicer House). Here is the issue you have. Home prices have doubled. You’ll have equity in your current home, but the nicer houses that you want has doubled in price. So, it is a wash. You’ll have to take out another $300k loan. Also, you are now giving up that 3% rate.
This is how much rates matter.
>A $300k loan at 3% costs you $1264.81 a month
>A $300k loan at 7% costs you $1995.91 a month
Is your new job going to pay $731.10 more after taxes? It probably won’t.
Most homeowners are not going to leave their starter home and are going to stay right where they are. Move up buyers are dead. They are more likely to rent out their starter home for 2k a month than sell it.
>But Anon, there are people who need to sell because they died or got divorced
That is a small part of the sellers’ side of the market. The number of homes on the market is not anywhere close to pre-COVID levels. Dead people and divorces have not been keeping up with market demand even during high current interest rates.
Something else must break in the economy for the housing market to crash. The housing market will not crash on its own.

I am a rentcuck who is looking to buy a house. I want a massive 2008 crash but at most a 10% decline and a 20% decline in areas like Boise, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Phoenix.

>>52696385
yup this time it's different

>>52696364
That'd be pretty great but I'm not counting on it. As >>52696385 pointed out, homeowners are sitting on primo low interest rate loans. There's no reason to sell unless they're forced to by some other calamity.

It's not going to crash. Real estate is growing all over the U.S.

It crashes when new neighborhoods are not being built. When population decreases, which it isn't.

There is this conspiracy that "depopulation" is a goal of the powers that be, however this isn't true.

Expect the world population to double within the next 20 years.

No, the ozone layer isn't falling apart, global warming is naturally happening as it has for thousands of years now, there is no food shortage, there is no shortage of land or farming resources, there is no shortage of water.

>>52696385
There's demographic reasons also, a lot of people my age (late 20's, early 30's) are trying to buy their first house and crowding the market. This age group is fairly large

>>52695993
then pick peaches and place them in boxes, you dumb bitch.

>>52696575
Also, millennials and zoomers did not get into the trades to build more homes.

Don't you just want to stuff your cock down her throat while she cries but secretly loves it?

>>52698926
I want her to stuff her cock down my throat.

>>52695993
this woman looks like she does anal exclusively

>>52699763
you sound like you take anal exclusively kek -
in all seriousness shes beautiful hope she got the career she preferred over this - she looks like she could be creative - sales jobs are soul destroying desu

>>52695993
Sorry you can't be a wife.
You voted for this.
No refunds for the beauty of your youth. Though we might get this fixed by the time your friends have grandkids!

>>52701125
>crying woman on tiktok
>creative
>simping for this

>>52695993
>this is the bathroom wanna buy it?

>>52695993
Soon.......soon....

Market has already collapsed, boomers are just delaying the inevitable by refusing to find real market prices. Don't believe me? Pop over to Zillow, houses sitting on the market since summer. Tick tock boom boom

>>52696312
>defaults are necessary for a large crash to occur.
kek. Enjoy the eternity in the lake of fire, boom boom

>>52695993
>Why hasn't the real estate market collapsed yet?
its a process

>>52696385
>>52696449
Intelligent posts here. Dumb rentoids in here think 2008 will happen again. It will not. If house prices are insane, why not at least take advantage of the low rates to keep your payments low? You could have gotten a low interest rate earlier this same year, but you didn't, because you thought you were smart. Now you're locked out forever because you were greedy and spiteful to homeowners. You're stuck with high house prices AND high rates forever.

Forever seethe, rentcuck.

>>52695993
because nothing ever happens

>>52696449
this.

all the depopulation psyop is so they can get sois to voluntarily cut back so they can get more. "buy land? why, when i can live in a tiny house with a small carbon footprint. " "eat meat? that's for evil people, i eat crickets"

then they laugh and laugh, while they eat steak and hire 10 more illegals to clear brush on the 10,000 acres they just bought.

meanwhile, their recycling company gets millions from the city to take your recycling off the curb and drive it to the land fill. their green energy company gets billions from the fedgov to convert heavy metals mined by serfs in china to batteries so you can buy an electric car that will be useless in 5 years. then their recycling company can pick that up and dump it in the landfill too.

fuck this clown world

>>52701745
Yeah and the vaccines work. Permabulls are cancer

>>52699763
I was wondering why I liked her so much

>>52701668
Top signal, we should have listened to uncle adolf and slept in

>>52695993
Because the average age of the home purchaser was 53 years old. Gen X finally has some money while Boomers were recycling into bigger McMansions from their retirement ports.
But the fact that Powell had to lower to 50 bps shows that there is some trouble ahead, that BoA report seems pretty likely (135k job losses per month in Q1)

>>52695993
that dumb bitch doesnt know what a fucking cakewalk that job is. At least shes not loading trucks on a fucking dock in -20 degree weather

>>52695993
i want it to crash so it wont crash, so when i buy it will crash

>>52695993
>jobs aren't supposed to be boring

>>52701406
This. Pride, arrogance and a general lack of awareness is currently propping up the market. Between boomers who are like "DON'T LOW BALL ME! I KNOW WHAT I GOT" and investors up shit creek hoping for a sucker prices are still high. I have been watching zillow lately the longer a house has been on the market the lower the price has dropped. Sellers coming on to the market are acting as if rates are still 3% and values are increasing $10k a month. Sales are plummeting. Only houses that are closing are ones with huge price drops. A lot of houses are backing up with multiple contingencies. I have even seen houses under contract stay listed due to having contingencies of the buyer waiting to sell first. There is a shit show brewing in real estate. Next summer will still be high. Next fall fear will really set in. By 2024 fire sales will kick in.
>>52696385
One thing you left out here is that, sure home owners have low mortgage rates. Problem is most home owners bought at the edge of what they can afford. Inflation is already biting them in the ass. Just because they have a low interest rate on a loan doesn't mean they can afford it. As cost of living rises along these owners on the edge will get priced out of their homes. Many will be forced to sell one way or another simply because they can't afford the cost of living along with their mortgages. They might be able to rent the house out and get into a lower cost housing situation but most won't. Average americans are too arrogant to step down to a lesser lifestyle unless they forced too. More than likely most americans are too loaded with debt to just rent out a house and buy another. They simply don't have the financial headroom. they can't claim rental income on a property they haven't rented yet. When they go to get a loan for another house or to rent something to get out of their other house to rent it they won't have the finances or the credit to do it.

>>52696449
>When population decreases, which it isn't.
Suddenly...

>>52696385
>such as massive layoffs or massive increases in food prices
It's probably going to be taxes, high upkeep costs, and high inflation. A lot of x and millennials that are already decently jaded will have no economic incentive to not default once boomers start tapping their retirements. They'll squat for a long time. Prices will only fall in real terms and will probably only vaguely underpace median wage growth.

>>52695993
>Applying all the makeup
>Just to cry in front of the camera
Do women really?

>>52701668
Kind of a shit take honestly.

I'm in a market where they were selling fucking craters in the ground for $800k and getting offers 20-30% above asking. They wouldn't even consider selling unless you had 25% down. What fucking 30 year old just has 200 grand sitting in the bank and is still renting in 2016+6?

The housing market might not crash but this will have a fairly major negative consequence in the near future. Why would anyone work if the basic building block of the middle class--a home--isn't a viable option even if you worked 80 hours a week? Why would any young man defend a country that has absolutely no future to offer him?

>>52702240
That's a man.

>>52695993
It's coming. My favorite cope is all the redditors who think it won't because "nobody will sell or want to move".

Literal retards think the housing market is a cartel. Oh yeah people will just stop getting jobs, and stop getting divorced, stop retiring, and stop changing incomes, and etc all so they won't lose a couple grand on their loan they haven't even started paying principal on.

>>52695993
I would make her my wife and raise our kids she would have lots of fun :)

>>52702208
>They might be able to rent the house out and get into a lower cost housing situation but most won't.
That's the thing, housing bubbles always cause a divergence between rent and mortgages, people in 2008 were buying to RENT that's what caused the shit show, people can not rent at the current mortgage rates, hence that "buy pressure" is G O N E
>b-but if you bought in 2010 you can rent profitablity!
Sure, but you could also sell profitablity, can 2021 buyers say the same?

>>52702240
Yes they do. Woman is the Jew of the world.

>>52696449
>There is this conspiracy that "depopulation" is a goal of the powers that be, however this isn't true.
ok tard

>>52702240

The internet has allowed women to expand their horizons.

>>52702525

it's mostly FUD to get people to "spend" their lives, instead of "investing" their lives.

>>52696244
Kek - fact checked

>>52702420
This nigger fucks

>>52702384
simple. the 'people' buying 800k craters were land speculation companies. what 30 year old is going to buy a crater. the loss blackrock will take on that crater will be swept under the rug. actual homes will still be sold for more than they were purchased for. the negative consequenses will disappear, because muh corporation. flippers will benefit from this, but who cares?

define collapse?
https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/housing/las-vegas-home-prices-drop-below-us-average-2684606/

>>52695993
boomers

we gotta wait for them all to die

>>52703032
fuck waiting, why not kill them? oh, that's right, you a a worthless pussy.

>>52696047
Real, money, value, wealth, and assets are merely subjective concepts produced by a system that ingrains upon the individual that they are of value. That sense of value is used to chain and control the individual.

How much of any of those things will anyone have to trade to get lost time back?

>>52703057
thanks, freshman philosophy major. go smoke some more weed.

>>52696449
>Expect the world population to double within the next 20 years.
apart from the reddit spacing. even if your entire post is true it still is not enough. look at how much the population of these western countries have rises since the end of the second world war. My country of australia had a population of 4m at the end of ww2 now its at 25 million. do you seriously think that these nations are going to keep pumping out more and more babies? if anything people now days are having LESS children because they are so expensive and not everybody wants kids. so where is all this population growth supposed to come from? Immigrants? you are talking about tens of millions of new immigrants that need to be funneled into the country in order just to keep housing propped up at these insane levels. Thats not even taking into account all the demographic, cultural, political and infrastructure issues that can barely support the amount that is currently here.
>>52696449
>No, the ozone layer isn't falling apart, global warming is naturally happening as it has for thousands of years now, there is no food shortage, there is no shortage of land or farming resources, there is no shortage of water.
i agree with all this. im just saying there are other issues to factor in here that are going to cause housing to decline or at least stagnate in western countries for the next 10-20 years

>>52703215
>immigrants
yes. now you get it. they are being paid to procreate. subsidize what you want more of. do you really think fucking is going to go out of style if you are getting paid to do it?

>>52696385
> what is a recession
When the recession hits, chunks of the economy are tanking and have to lay off, hence you can see in some cities unemployment rate go to 20, 25%
When.your cuck homeowners bought the house, the unemployment rate was frictional and if they lost their job and wanted to change, they could fairly easily find a similar paying job, despite that most of the economy is composed of bullshit jobs that create no wealth nowadays
Now, once all these cucks are laid off at the same time, or even simply get a 30% haircut on their salary because, you know, times are hard, we might see quite a lot of people that mortgagemaxxed and can't really afford their lifestyle. That's when these people start to lose faith and want to sell their house to live elsewhere and keep their pre 2023 lifestyle, but they can't because 20% of the houses arrive on the market at the same time and nobody wants to buy them, or the governement still gives cash to Blackrock to prop up the housing market with fake prices and empty houses, at which moment we are entering hyperinflation

So no, giving your ass to the bank and the governement (state taxes etc), even if you did it at 3%, was a terrible idea. And people are going to suffer for their terriblr decision

>>52703488
Checked and fact pilled. "Thing has happened for one year and will therefore happen forever" like really nigger? This was your investing logic? Boom booms getting styled on hardcore fr fr

>>52703488
unemployment rate is irrelevant. one party is in power, so they will change the definition. so, when all these worthless assholes who were overpaid to be hr roasties, or 'journalists' are unemployed, they will just say, now the new minimum wage should be 50/hr and then we print more money, and they are making 50/hr which is still worth what 7.50/ hr was 10 years ago. idiots are happy, keep voting for shitheads. THE CIRCLE OF LIIIIIFE!!!

Lack of supply in most cases. Give it time

>>52696312
>large defaults are necessary for a large crash to occur
No they're not. We aren't going to see a repeat of 2008, but that doesn't mean this bubble won't crash. Look at what's starting with REITs >>52702891

>>52696006
>it's real
kek

>>52695993
I feel for this chick. It's a crushing blow to realize in your dreams will be subverted by jews.

>>52701326
>Buy bathrooms in houses
>Charge homeowners to use them

Genius

>>52696047
food, water, shelter, pussy, i.e. anything that furthers the pursuit of the biological imperative.

>>52696006
>>52695993

>>52695993
Because nobody needs to sell yet, and possibly ever.

This generations parents all (90+%) made their meaningful money from property and had ridiculous good DB pensions gifted to them for just working at a company for 20+ years.

Boomers have an inflated view of themselves. They dont understand that being on easy street, doesn't make them good with money. I know my parents told me "buy the most expensive house you can afford" and "rent is dead money".

Absolute shit advice that an alarmingly high amount of young people still listen to. Yeah, renting is dead money. However, as long as you're not spending your whole paycheck on it and invest a sizeable chunk of your paycheck each month, renting is smart. No obligations to the house and you can pick up and leave whenever you like.

I plan to buy a house when I start a family, and it'll be one I can actually afford. My main priority is to have £100k invested, something I'm about 2 years away from.

I own a home, but I need to upsize b/c we are planning to have more kids. I'm effectively priced out of my market.

>>52705168
its going to get so bad. people are going to be desperately hoping for their parents to die so they can get a home to live in and start a life which they cant do until the boomer exits. however much of the silent gen are still around in their 80s and 90s living and life standards are so high now and are probably going to be even higher when boomers get to that age. people going to be fighting over wills asking for it to be divvied up early. nasty stuff

>>52705016

>>52696244
who the fuck is fred?

>>52695993
Because people can still afford their mortgages. When the economy deteriorates further and people can no longer afford their payments, there will be a massive sell off

>>52705168
The choice boomers had was a reasonably priced house Vs rent, and it's obvious that buying a house was the better economic choice. These days with house prices so high renting doesn't seem like such a bad option anymore.

>>52695993
Just got a letter through from the Welsh Government here. They're implementing a 300% raise in council tax rates for unoccupied housing. Bye bye boomerino property portfolios.

And in other news, picrel is about the fuck the morgbitches and people dumb enough to fall for the
>nows a good time to take out a chunky photo, because imma worth it and fiscal responsible and sheeeeeit
harder than coke fueled bumming

They literally told you they were going to do this. Go to the bank of england channel on YouTube, scroll back through their videos to 2013, look for the one titled something like "the creation of wealth", all five minutes of it
>loans create deposits
M3h m3h m3h

>>52695993
Must be hard for Jennifer to get work after Harvey went to gaol

>>52705778
I've got a friend that invested heavily into rental property just after the sub prime mortgage crisis. He's made a lot of money from capital appreciation, but long term I think he's just going to get milked dry by the government.

Landlords are going to get crucified through tax in the next labour government. With shitty tenants, having to do improvements etc, I don't know why anyone wouldn't just sell up and put their money into stocks/index funds.

Yeah, you'll have to work a job or find another larger revenue stream, but I'd take that over handing more and more money in taxes.

>>52703057
Ok now trying going without food, water, heat or shelter and come back and tell us how you're getting on.

>>52701939
I can see her bunions through the socks. Disgusting.

>>52695993
She could've been a housewife but she chose to be a hoe

>>52695993
She's not actually selling "houses" is she?

>>52707279
That's a man... it could have never been a wife.

>>52695993
people haven't started losing their jobs yet

>>52706080
>having to do improvements
Some of the houses round here and in other places I've rented have been horrendous. The girl next door actually reported the landlord to environmental health over the amount of mold in the place. I've seen it before as well, walls and ceilings covered in it. Everything that can leak, leaking. So they dropped an eviction letter through for her.

This place was previously rented out. The last person renting it didn't pay the rent and just put the keys back through the letter box. Then disappeared.

I now own the it outright but yeah, it wouldn't have been suitable to live in previously. I could fit my hand round the double glazing, floor joists have rotted out the wall and the boiler wouldn't fire up for more than hour due to the rate it was leaking under the floor. So next to impossible to heat. Not too difficult to fix but the majority of landlords are lazy fucks.

As an example, the guy had to climb back in through the window because he wasn't smart enough to keep a spare key. Even though he should, incase something needs fixing while the tenant is out; like a burst pipe.

>>52707295
Is Aerith selling flowers ?

>>52703076
Lol

>>52706151
>I can see her bunions through the socks. Disgusting.
You better hope she doesn't hear you saying that or she'll crack your dome open like an almond with her thighs.

>>52695993
We don't really have realtors here in bong land, you'd probably be let in by the estate agent which is roughly similar I guess.

If I was in the US as a bong I think it could be a pretty funny entertaining. Look at the positives right, get to meet lots of people, go different places, see all kinds of houses, trying turning panels hanging walls into 'features', maybe quagmire some money empowered office girls... I mean... it is an empty house. With the added kink of it not being either of your houses. But it's empty. And lockable.

>>52707279
Anon you can't make a hoe a housewife. A hoe's a hoe.

>>52696244
There are still pandemic related forbearance shenanigans going on, you functional retard.
I'm sure there is some amount of foreclosures occurring but all rules are being bent to some degree, in some way, in most cases - where foreclosures would normally be happening.
Also all statistics on the economy are being jiggered.
IE - if you believe the payroll report today then case in point, you're tarded.