/biz/ - Business & Finance

the stock market is fake and gay and so am i t. (You)

>Wishing For a Santa Rally Edition

Historically speaking the months of November and December are nearly dead because hedge funds and what have you are away vacationing.

Anon: Should I follow Buffett or Munger?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbOuZTEacss

>>52620493
Bulls gonna get wrecked. Past 3 weeks have been a fools rally. Recession hasn’t even started yet, equities are still bloated as fuck. And (((they))) are nervous that FED measures aren’t controlling true inflation. VIX is primed for takeoff. Current Position: SQQQ 45c 20JAN23

>>52620533
We WANT a recession retard, bad news is good news because all that matters is fed rates. Dump those calls monday and wait until oil is back over 100 to buy SQQQ

>no exhentai link
fake thread

Looking in to WWE right now lads

>>52620581
You could be right. Might be a few weeks before some capitulation. But my calls are long and theta low. I can hold, I wanted in before premiums skyrocket. Market is overbought is what I know.

>>52620611
We hate your hentai spam here on /smg/

>>52620559
What is it with the Chinese and getting sucked into machines?

>>52620628
Literally for dumb rednecks.
Could be profitable if you're just making money off them conning them, but usually working with conmen is a bad idea.
Count me out.

>>52620681
Dec CPI will come in low, market will rally more when fed hikes less or pauses, buying options too early is a bad idea

>>52620700
4x the pop of the US with lots more manufacturing, much lower income, and little to no regard for human life with lax labor laws

On the flipside, they have earlier retirement ages 50/55 for women/men until just a few years ago. Now they've upped it to 55/60.

So what's really wrong here?
>Even China can't make socialism work
>The merchants/lords who control the world will milk every bit of production out of everyone. They'll keep pushing until we're all in amazon wagie pods

>>52620712
It’s priced in. Why do you think we’ve been rallying past couple weeks after last CPI? What do you think JPOW and the Fed thinks about equities rallying? What do they think about consumer spending increasing? What do they think of unemployment lowering? These sound like good things but are ominous signs that spending is still increasing. They need working/middle class to feel the pain which they aren’t seeing. I believe CPI will come in hot or stagnant at best. Retail thinks they will do 50bps. So what does that mean? Retail always gets inversed by big money and fucked. Also the yield curve is still inverted as fuck. Very bad signs for the markets and economy as a whole.

>>52620755
if inflation is decreasing they dont need any of those things any more.
bobos you had a good year, it's time to let go. it cant go down forever.

>>52620755
Not everything is always "priced in" this is a continuing development

>>52620762
I will be a bull in Q3/Q4 2023. For right now, I see another leg down for a true bottom. Still too much tech bloat in the markets. Why would big tech companies start their layoffs at the END of a recession if they didn’t anticipate more pain ahead? I guess we’ll see.

Just woke up

Why the fuck did oil dump again yesterday bros

>>52620783
well yeah of course there will be one, it just won't be for a few months, if you don't want to trade the pump buy longer dated calls or SQQQ shares.

>>52620783
why would they spend money on useless cunts. meta fired their hiring division/recruiters and other bloat, didnt look into the others. Trimming the fat is a normal cycle and they have an excuse when there is a vibecession to reduce bad optics and internal strife. It's the ideal time to fire people and not ruin morale when all the MSM outlets are blaring the R-word to make people panic about muh economy

>>52620784
I heard a rumor about Exxon and Venezuela or some shit but that probably has nothing to do with it.

>>52620796
All I need is a few months. My calls are until the end of Jan. I don’t need a 2008 crash, I just need a 10-15% dip for some decent coin.

damn bros just finished DOOM (2016) and started DOOM Eternal tonight... yeah Eternal is instantly the better game, gameplay is just tighter, gore kills gorier, weapons more weapon-er, and this time all the assets and guns actually looks like high rez 3D version of the original Doom II (compared to how they tried to re-imagine it in DOOM (2016)

bullish for MSFT

>>52620824
not in the cards, you need something to happen that would force a 75 bps hike in December or you're toast.

>>52620710
It's for children, rednecks, and /asp/ies*

>got covid again

>>52620977
should have gotten the vax chud

>>52620699
couldnt agree more. Report all off topic shitposters, send thwem back to worthless mass shitposting platforms like twitter

>>52621045
ive gotten none of the mRNA injections and im doing great thanks for asking :)

>>52620853
Sounds good, I have eternal pirated on my PS4, just haven't had time to play it yet, guess I'll start today
MSFT is gonna get fucked btw, azure is not doing well and probably won't for a year or two and that's where their money is coming from right now

I have 2k to spare, what is a high risk degenerate play I can go in on?

>>52621248
based. rip and tear, brother

DPP lost midterm election

>Dump everything I own into OIL during the pandemic
>500% gains
>realize the profits
>about to fly to vegas for a bender
>got a baddie I met off IG waiting for me
>literally made it

Don’t give up frens, WAGMI.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PFTS:IND
so I was looking to find an ETF that trades ukraine companies since I think they're going to win and be bathed in NATO bucks to rebuild, but their index has been closed for an entire year.
I think the jews are going to buy it all up privately before re-opening and leave retail with the bag. Kind of sucks.

>>52621677
>Buy when there is blood in the streets
>literal blood in the streets
Sorry goy exchange is closed

>>52615781
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BRslflm1gE

>>52615532
I saw a commercial for Fidelity and it had a woman it. Is it true? Fidelity has a phone number I can call where a (biological) woman will answer the phone and talk with me?

>>52615214
Do you have the German yield curves from the Weimar era?

>pick a company you would suggest people invest in
>post one picture to explain why

I'll start: SBUX. They've been recovering nicely since July, too.

>>52621759
>(biological)

anon...

>>52620853
>>52621248
>just got Doom Eternal on sale for super cheap because i've heard good things about it in the past and now it's 75% off so how can i pass up such a good deal?
>now anons are talking about how good it is

feels fantastic, lads.

So you indoors cucks are still afraid to go into the woods at night, eh? No wonder, considering how bad you're at surviving here. It must suck to be born such a pathetic creature. For pity's sake, I'll give you a hint: short Oil. I won't say anything else. Gotta scare some hikers on the trails, it's going to be a busy day, ciao

>>52618912
Berserk (1997)
Avatar: The Last Airbender

>>52621866
> Hurr durr short oil
Pic related it's you when you typed this.
You Alps apes know nothing about oil anyway
> t. posting from Siberia

>>52621817
With where I'm at in life, biological isn't a requirement anymore

When is SOXL going to be 100+ again? I want to be rich before I'm 50

I moved across the world and my timezone's all fucky wucky uppied what day is movie night again?

>>52622008
A little over 14 hours from now

>>52622032
Thanks bro. prolly won't make it due to socioeconomic factors but yaknow

dead thread. guess i'll see you guys on monday.

Predictions for next week?

I am guessing that the santa really will instead be resuling in flat markets, the natural course would be down, but the forced end year rally would make it net 0, there is no good news

>>52622102
Black Friday numbers come come out as disappointing, economy slowing down, rumors and consensus that the Fed will taper hikes, markets rally

> only a week or two away from getting that sweet, sweet Christmas bonus and vested RSUs
I'll probably leave the vested RSUs for a few years since we're at a recent low, but with the bonus I'll probably get a new camera.

uh, copperbros?

>>52622238
bofa these nuts

>market is only 7% down
>CMON RALLY
How far up did you degenerates buy?

today i will remind them

Who you got on college handegg rivalry day?

>>52620755
>What do they think of unemployment lowering?
UE going up now.

>>52621350
Buy a 1999 vintage pokemon card

Good morning. Saturday morning.

>>52620736
>>52620700
>>52620559
>little to no regard
Except the guy in the image literally jumps onto the conveyer belt, so he's just clueless. There are a lot of webms like this, where a chinese person is just walking around and suddenly they get crushed to death in a machine. A lot of chinese people in real life are like this too- clueless, standing around, trying to push you out of the way if they're behind you in the queue to get on the train. Often they seem to sleep through life.

>>52620977
Stop licking door handles.

>>52622308
Go Blue, fuck Ohio, Toledo war, etc etc.

>start looking around for another job
>Get an offer for £13/hr (currently 12)
>Tell current employers that I received an offer for £14/HR
>They offer me 14 to stay

Is it really that easy bros?
Is lying really the secret to success?

>>52622132
Sauce

I've been drinking small amounts of milk so that I fart A LOT. doing what I can to speed up global warming so my KOLD prints. How are you changing the world to influence your stock picks?

>>52622110
>rumors and consensus that the Fed will taper hikes
The funniest shit I have ever seen is that the market would pump on 50bps just because number lower than before

meanwhile in a normal world any rate hike should result in a downward move

>>52622488
>Is lying really the secret to success?
Always has been.

>>52622526
The world isn't normal

>>52622526
Rape hikes and inverted yield curves have a lagging effect. We're going to get heemed in Spring/Summer 2023.

>>52622526
The idea is that the market is forwards looking so it's priced in, however the market absolutely has not priced in a 5% terminal rate.

What is it with all the big ETF's basically having the exact same stocks, usually in the exact same proportions? It's all Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Google. I have no faith that any of these co.panies are going to continue growing, especially Tesla. Has there ever been that shit up a 1000% and even maintained that price over time?

>>52622488
You're still only making 14 bongs though anon

I fucking told you guys venezuela was going to pump oil for the USA after saudis fucked up.

So obvious.
>b-b-but they'll have to re-do the election to get rid of sanctions, the laws said so!
HAHAHAHAHA

>>52622488
Could have told him that you got much better offer somewhere else and ask him how much he can offer for your work.
Would probably throw much higher raise than 14 / hr if you are truly valuable to his company and you would not need to lie. Not to mention people often lowball their offers during interviews / when asking for a raise
> t. someone who got 50% raise this year after telling HR I'm leaving. They offered me 4% raise so I told them I got better offers

I can't trade anything today
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Good morning, sir.

What do you guys think of using a trailing stop for risk management compared to other methods like an OCO order or DCA'ing or just based on indicators? Like literally every trade you enter you just set a 1.5xATR or 2xATR trailing stop and walk away, let that bitch ride?

>>52620853
>>52621836
I enjoyed Doom more than Eternal, more focus on action. Still replaying both.

>>52622488
with the job i currently have, they originally asked me my price range and i said "$40-45k" and they offered me $52k/year + a 10% sign on bonus. in short, i highly recommend you get just an associates in EE from a good accredited community college and escape wagiedom. you have to be able to pass differential equations so though good luck if you're low IQ but it's almost criminal how much money i make relative to how little i actually work. i literally day trade the morning session every day at work while drinking my coffee and reading financial news and no one gives a shit.

>>52620533
I expect 50 bps into a santa rally, qt which point Im going to load up on VIX calls for the summer

Im tired of losing money. I'm want to try making money for a change. Does anyone here have any idea how to go about this?

>>52623314
The system Im learning is SL at 1x ATR, TP at 1.5x ATR. At TP, sell half and move SL to breakeven. I forget what the rules were for trailing stop

>>52623314
I wonder if this is the final form of womens fashion, like clothes that basically do nothing except shape the body.

>>52623379
really just want AMD to get to $100 so i can sell and prepare for my next entry when it inevitably dumps again due to some more bullshit world events or whatever bullshit the central banks are doing. i don't want to just get break even i at least want SOME profit for all the time i've been waiting during this fucking bear market.

>>52623383
technical analysis. at a minimum you should be looking at trend direction (2 moving averages) and momentum (also 2 moving averages, but measuring whether they're moving apart or together). at a MINIMUM. the only time i really fuck up is when i think i know better than the TA.

>>52623355
You can also just lie about having a degree and get a job like this, ideally starting with some CS or helping a project manager and gradually picking up skills when you’re not burning time on 4chan. I can’t believe how comfy things can really be.

>>52623355
52k a year is no where near enough anon. I'm a 92k/yr wagie and there always a new number you crave

>>52623419
Copes on TA, waiting for AMD to get back to $100 when it pumped from $54 to $78.
Back to the cage with you. Should've DCAd and had a real comfy exit. Held my short from $102 to $58, re entered right at $77 and waiting for my next price target which is $38.

>>52623404
1xATR risk is pretty shitty in my experience. the problem is the ATR is basically the size of an average bar or candlestick, and it's very easy for price to range that small amount and knock you out. i'd do 1.5xATR risk at an absolute minimum. basically that sets you behind the bar you entered on plus a little extra typically. so if you get stopped out it means price reversed and went a decent bit lower than the low of the bar you entered on, so it makes sense that price is potentially reversing momentum and you want to get out ASAP.

honestly i'd like to do more clever things like using indicators to dictate exits instead of using a stop loss, but im really looking for ways that allow me to at least partially automate my trading. like, i look at the chart, i find the entry point, and if i get triggered into a trade, i set up the order and walk away until the trade is over, win or lose. then look for the next entry. doing it that way all i have to do is pick where im getting into a trade, and once in the trade i can just walk away and don't have to watch it. should help with emotions too because i don't have to watch it. this is a probability game, after all.

>>52623415
>like clothes that basically do nothing except shape the body.
google "shapewear"

>>52623462
You may enjoy No Nonsense Forex on YT. While hes mostly an fx trader, his algorithm and concepts like risk management and psychology carry over into every market (and if you do end up going into fx as well, Blueberry Markets is pretty legit)

>>52623383
Try to understand where the theoretical bottom/ top. Pick a buy/ sell point to know the delta, guesstimate time until sell pt is reached. Delta and time will give you theoretical risk and reward so you can make a judgment call.

I don't do options atm, direction in this market is to volatile imo.

>>52623496
Like he literally has 28 fx pairs he traders on the daily chart (plus metals, indexes and some crypto via CFDs) using 6 or so indis (trend trading) and he claims it takes about 45m a day to maintain and enter trades

Why do I keep trying to go long...

>>52623494
Basically thats what yoga pants do and women love that shit.

>>52623518
Ive blown 3k on options this year, had much better luck with CCs

>>52623454
i did DCA, im just an idiot who didn't think we would unironically go into a bear market. i bought at $120 and doubled down at $60 so now i'm averaged at $90, i did DCA. im just hoping i can get out at $100 with a nice $3k profit before it dumps again. then i can buy back in around $50-60.

Baking.

>>52623541
I just have the capital base that I dont need to risk it imo.

like I bought 40k amzn at 90, it went back to 102 almost immediately and I could have sold for ~3700 profit 9.2% return
I'm going to hold until 120-130 though which I see coming probably close to q4 earnings at end of jan.

>>52623434
it's good enough for me. plenty of room to grow, they're even paying me to learn programming. $52k is only the beginning but it's a pretty sweet beginning especially when i do fuck-all most days.

most of my "make it" money is going to come from investments, anyways. you can only make so much money by selling your time directly. you need to make the money work for you. after a certain amount of $/year i just want to be comfy at my place of work.

>>52623496
>>52623519
i learned indicators from NNFX and i recommend him along with LiveTraders (price action and volume patterns on more or less naked charts) to people who want to learn. trust me, i KNOW NNFX. even just something as simple as the concept of a baseline is game changing for most people.

Ahhhh decembear. A great time of the year bobros.

>>52623520
going long now is fine if you're DCA'ing strategically and are position trading over the course of years. if your time frame is long then you are just collecting cheapies of your favorite tech companies at this point. then it's just a matter of waiting for line to go up again which is literally unironically always does. it's also the most brain dead and effective way to trade, if you're lazy.

if you want to be short term you have to understand shit like the Fed rate hikes and other world events. the macro economic situation, basically. which is currently bearish but things seem to be turning the corner so it's hard to say.

>>52623597
Should get your eit & pe if you can. Wife is a masters EE with the eit and she makes 120k at the entry level...this is in ca though.

>>52623610
I just hope it crabs. That's when I make most of my money. Especially those days you know for almost certain that it will crab. Anyways, when I'm not a crab I'm a bobo too

>>52622238
I want to believe
Send CMMC.TO back to 4 bucks a share

>>52622238
Bullish for NAK.

>After about $75k, your wealth and earnings factor into your happiness on a relative basis rather than absolute. If you have and make more than your friends, family, neighbors, coworkers, etc., then you will be happier than if you did not.
Haha, I think I've short-circuited the system by not having friends, working from home, and never talking to my family and neighbors

>>52623581
I hope so too. I have some $105 calls for Jan20

>>52623640
consider the following

>>52623719
I ONLY HAVE A 5 CARS, A YACHT, AND 3 HOUSES COUNTING THE CABIN AND THE VACATION HOME IN FL. MY FRIENDS HAVE MULTIPLE YACHTS AND A PRIVATE JETS AAAAAAAAA
I HATE BEING POOR

>>52623749
yea so just wait a bit, buy long maturity bonds, dividend stocks and rotate that into growth stocks in following 4-8 years.

>>52623719
Eh, i'm much happier going out with my friends than just sitting at home playing vidya. Went to the fl keys a couple months back for rebreather wreck diving, same group goes to yucatan every year for cave diving.

>>52623784
yeah so just wait a decade (or 2) and you might break even after DCAing at a decade high
and buy 3.9% bonds when inflation is 7% and is sticking even after the fastest rape hikes in history
lole u think ur warren buffet when that nigga dca'd into the biggest bull run in history and was holding 15% 30 year notes with 2% inflation

>>52623803
>>52623784
fucking dipshit nigga ass bitch LOL

Hi guys, happy Thanksgiving.

Just wanted to say that if you don't already own a home, you've been priced out forever. Also, you're probably the same type of loser that posted here on Thanksgiving. Bye!

>>52623749
So are you saying another crab decade is now upon us or what?

>>52623803
whats your suggestion Charlie munger faggot

>>52623819
I'm saying its possible worse because of the underlying demographic issues + insane global sovereign debts + insane M2 increase

I'm also showing just how weakshit the 2010s bullrun was with so much raw M2 pumped into the system. The stock market pumped 10x in the 90s with interest rates around 8%

>>52623818
Keep spreading that positive karma bro

>>52623749
>worst case scenario, you get crabby and you take a small profit off of your DCA and then re-adjust where you re-enter your position

doesn't seem like that big of a deal tbhwy. even better if you're DCA'ing in and out. also this is where TA and FA do wonders for you.

>>52623649
>this is in ca though

yeah no fucking shit lol. $120k in ca is like $60k where i live. either way idk if i even want to be an engineer, being a technician is comfy and like i said, most of my money will be made from investments or creative works. my "day job" is mostly just there to provide health insurance and a consistent form of income to pay my bills and invest with.

>>52623837
suffer
I mean you honestly can't lose with bonds, and right now the 6month has the highest yield anyway. So you can keep grabbing them and basically be a cash bastard++ while you wait for the stock market to have a nikkei moment

>>52623749
seems that the previous high becomes the floor. so pre coof jan 2020 high is the floor or lower around 2015

>>52623858
>also this is where TA and FA do wonders for you.
have you actually done any FA?
the fundamentals of the US economy (and the developed economies of the world in general) are the worst they have ever been in the history of the stock market
The stock market has been propped up and pumped by absurd monetary policy that has to go away at some point

>>52623863
theres nothing wrong with high yield dividend commodity stocks as well. They never move much anyway so might as well collect royalties

>>52620710
Fucking faggot ass jabroni

>>52623878
im betting on society getting it's shit together over the next couple of years. if im wrong and there's WWIII or civil war 2 electric boogaloo then i'll probably just die and my investments won't matter. it's a win/win either way.

if God actually exists i want to tell him to his face how bad of a job he did with existence, particularly human existence. call him a moron right to his fucking face, he deserves it if he fucked up "life" THIS badly despite supposedly being omnipotent and omniscient.

>>52623920
muh civil war or muh ww3 has nothing to do with it

I had a dream today in which my account balance in my wallet rose to 200,000.

Is anything important affecting the markets happening next week? What's the next important event?

>>52623948
jerome speaks on wednesday
I'd bet we rug that day considering we're really close to the top of the downward channel

>>52622238

>expected 2023 stock returns 0-1%

Sounds pretty bullish I was thinking closer to -20%

>>52622488
It really is. Keep looking for another job and tell them you make 16. Edit your resume and bump all your jobs up 1 level higher than what you actually did

>>52623749
Stop stealing my thesis man I shilled the 10 year crab weeks ago


Finished Chainsaw Man last night. 8/10. Glad he got the buns from that drunk whore at the end

>>52623955
What's he speaking about?

>>52623971
I've been shilling the nikkei moment thesis since 2018 bro

>>52623976
unemployment and stuff
ie: KA CAW

>>52623989
>futures

>>52624001
>OOOOOOOOOOOO
>AAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>52623989
So when does he feel like he has to move from black unemployment pandering to transgender employment numbers?

>>52624008
Lol your id is "Prescription Mr. Bid"

>>52624017
when's the last time he actually mentioned black unemployment
that was a yellen meme

Ah, so this is the fabled "santa rally"

>china about to boil over
Goodbye my VIX puts.

>>52624028
They talk about labor force participation of blacks being lower (because of systemic racism obviously) every single meeting

>>52624046
I stop listening after he says "we are committed to bringing inflation down to our target rate of 2%"

>>52622238
they got BTFO on their copium projections in 2022, how much eggs you going to put in their 2023 basket?

Short I short more or be prudent

>>52624028
I don't remember a meeting where he has not mentioned it

test

>>52623749
So multidecade crab with rising inflation until everyone is on CBDC and collapsing civilization?

>>52624187
idk i'm just painfully aware that the us is extremely close to demographically peaking and we are not in a good spot to absorb the shock of the ponzi scheme no longer growing

>>52624168
osterone

>>52623935
>things getting continuously worse for a decade+ isn't going to result in war

i mean, you're free to believe whatever you want i guess. to each his own. i disagree, though.

>>52624196
I could see index funds drawing down 30-40% in the next decade as boomers all cash out their 401ks and the younger generations are just zoomers/niggers/mexicans that at most have 4k in way out of the money Nvidia leaps and some shitcoins on robinhood

>>52624239
I'm saying that it won't take a war or a general collapse for things to continually get worse
they already are

this place is so fucking bearish on the weekend
I love it

>>52624245
then my trades will adjust accordingly, a crab market isn't that big of a deal in all honesty. im just mad that i ignored the TA and fucked up some of my current positions, but once i get out of them for a small profit i can just reposition on the next trade. it's really not that big of a deal for anyone actually employing some form of risk management.

im more concerned with society getting it's shit together. i can handle my trades, but war or similar instability and fuckery that actually affects my day-to-deal life is a problem. as long as they get their shit together with that stuff, i'll be fine with my investments.

>>52624263
probably because only autist intelligent people have nothing better to do on the weekend than shitpost here

hi.

The Eye.

We're Inside The Eye.

It's Quiet.

It's Calm.

We're Inside The Eye And The Tiger Watches.

The Tiger's Eye.

The Eye That Belongs To The Tiger.

VVIX. Look At VVIX. Please. I Am Begging You.

Please Look At How VIX Has Been Getting Slaughtered.

They Don't Listen.

They Just Sit. Inside The Eye.

>>52624018
kek.

Mr. Ask, on the other hand, doesn't need any rx

>>52623314
No one asked but people should not use stop losses for options. Stop losses for convex products doesn't make sense to me.

>>52624343
Appreciate the post, I had the same conclusion
But then, when do you cut losses on a losing option trade? Eg I have a short combo for HAS 2024, long put 62.50, short call 70.00. Its lost 30% value so far. I expect it to drop next year but I dont want to eat early assignment if it pops above 70

I just finished arguing with some crypto baggies. I don't know why I'm doing it to myself. They are like a cult. First they argue that it's better than fiat money, then when I show why it's worse they say they never claimed it should be used as currency. And in the end I am being called a retard. I guess I am retard for arguing with some pajeets on taiwanese blanket knitting forum.

>>52624343
>for options

lol. never touched those. never will. maybe some basic covered call shit some day but in general, lol, lmao even. it's like meth: not even once.

>>52624389
Do you think blockchain will be used to transact in the future? Its a viable technology. Will current platforms, coins, and contracts in 10 years? Probably not.
But the upside of parking $200 in BTC is far better than the risk of not having any exposure at all. I wouldnt go crazy but having 1-2% net worth in crypto seems fine.
Just dont be a diamond hand maxi rockship emoji to the moon retard with 100x leverage

>>52624453
Kek, no please don't I had enough mate. I see as many reasons to have exposure to crypto as to Beanie Babies, that's all I'm going to say.

MY GOD
I SHOULD HAVE SEEN IT COMING
TURNED AWAY KEPT RUNNING
I SHOULD HAVE SEEN
THE WARNING SIGNS

https://youtu.be/11IQAN1E0Ok

>>52623719
That $75k happiness study came out years ago, before the pandemic. It's probably like $150k now. I feel like you need a household income of $200k+ to ever have hope of buying a house, avoiding rentcucking, and raising a family.

>muh VIX tigers
lmao dude has been posting this for 4 months you just know he's lost his ass on options

>>52623719
Same here. I'm just happy that I don't have to look at prices when I go shopping. I remember my childhood, how my parents would be constantly stressed looking for discounts, and I'm happy and I don't have to do it. I know I would be better off financially if I'd spend better, but it's just a price I pay for peace of mind.

>>52624499
I was being serious though. During the last boom, I had $850 in and my wallets had a nominal value of $9000 but I didnt scale out or take profits and it just bled to like $400. I did move the bulk of it away from shitcoins though. Anyways I'm sure there will be another bull run, but I'm not adding additional funds. I can wait a few years
t. bought $300 of Gazprom in February

>>52623023
Go look at the holdings for the nasdaq/s&p indexes. Those large ETFs just mirror those.

Popular gay radio host and quadruple vaxxie enthusiast who said all anti-vaxxers will be sent to ICUs at a hospital gets BTFU by clots and heart attack HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHA
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/just-fcking-moron-doesnt-know-shit-clay-popular-radio-host-consistently-attacks-anti-vaxxers-will-take-hiatus-2023-heart-attack/

>>52624579
Well good luck. It's pump n dump so yeah, there is always a chance for next pump. Personally though I wouldn't count on repeat from 2021. You had:
- free cash stimulus, trillions of new printed USD
- aggressive advertising by crypto exchanges
- celebrities promoting it on social media
- mainstream TV promoting it
- speculative mania which burned tons of retail (Personal savings rate is lowest in decades currently)
Some of the people involved in promotion are now in legal troubles. CNBC is in defensive mode, inviting pumpers from 2021 just to blame them for the losses retail had in the last 12 months.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had a repeat of clown world somehow, but I'm not willing to gamble my wealth on this happening.

>>52624609
I just look at sector etfs

>>52623982
We're only going to crab until Fed pauses rapehiking and inflation is back under control. Unironically the Japanese problem is one of market psychology. The Japanese save too much money and not enough goes back into expanding credit and innovation. Meanwhile Americas problem now is there is no savings left to expand the market.

>>52624645 Go look at the prospectus of each of those to see why they all pick the same 6 companies. This is why I HATE indexes and etfs. They all take a fat crap when the market panics down. Trade stuff that isn't on indexes and you get rekt less when the broad market craps itself.

>>52624620
Kek and he'll keep taking boosters until he's dead. The definition of a useful idiots.

>Taiwanese government is having a silent coup with election fixing
based

So I used my spreadsheet to run two simulations: the top is if I put all of my extra money into savings accounts (currently earning 3.5% APY). The bottom is if I DCA it all into ETFs and do some degenerate options gambling on the side
Which one should I go with?

How do I gain short exposure to niggers?

>>52624786
2nd one if you want to have some fun. 2nd one minus gambling if you want to make money (unless you picked ARK ETFs). 1st one if you want minimal risk exposure at the price of slow growth. That's how I see it.

>>52624820
Well, the ETFs I'm in are mostly 2x leveraged
Here's a third chart if I just 100% into boring ass VOO, which is probably the best choice...

>>52623419
This dumdum talking about trends while hoping AMD goes to 100
Idiot mumus, many such cases!

>record covid cases in China
>protests spreading and getting work
>Foxconn plant that makes 50-70% of iPhone basically shut down, paying rioters to quit their jobs and beating the rest with police goons
>deadly protests/fires in Beijing
>Ukraine doesn't have any electricity and puting is just straight up bombing civilians now
>double digit inflation in Europe
>England officially declared a recession
>7.7% inflation
>layoffs in America ramping up
>black friday shopping turnout is poor
>another rate hike coming that retards are bullish about
>record consumer debt
>increasing defaults of all debt types
>food/shelter/energy continue to inflate
>0.5 fed now casting for November inflation, up again and poor numbers for three consecutive months

There is literally not a single bull thesis.. everything is fucked. /smg/ still mostly bulls.. rofl.

>>52624861
Probably yeah, I remember some anon posting in past that 2x leveraged ETFs were historically pretty good, 3x had too big volatility decay. Of course having some fun on side is not bad,I would allocate very small % to it though with a rule that you can't refuel it from ETF account if gambling account goes to 0.

Wednesday is absolutely crucial for determining the future of America for the next year.

>>52624908
Oh my god... I do business with some of these companies...

>>52624798
Idk wasn't there like some type of black ETF awhile back or was that a joke?

>>52624903
Two more weeks
>>52624908
No it isnt

>>52624930
>two weeks
Nah Wednesday.. jpowell is gonna come out and give a calm talk about how everything is fucked and bulls are literally fucking retards for the 20th time this year

>>52624930
>BBW
>VSCO
>HRL
The holy trinity of holiday spending, thots, and poor people food. If these show bad performances we are in a world of hurt.

>>52624709
>Unironically the Japanese problem is one of market psychology.
that and their demographic decline

>>52624975
I think I'll get a couple BBW $16 lottery tickets. Could totally see them missing and doing the -30% afterhours dump

>>52624903
The rest of the world is on fire, learn some Spanish. Cause Latin America will come out on top when it's all said and done XD

>>52624965
>market pumps 2%

>>52624975
>BBW
Sir this a board where we discuss stocks not your disgusting fetish

>>52625033
I really doubt it. I read all the fed minutes and they were really fucking bearish.
>we failed to meet our inflation goals
>some fed members think 50bps is appropriate because our economy is shit and going to fucking collapse soon

>>52624999
Not as bad as taking in millions of niggers and mexicans who are a net negative for the government creating massive inefficiencies.

>>52625073
Market also also had its hopium rally from ~350 spy.

How do I choose a career?

I fucked up and my undergrad is too vague and now Im confused on which path to take. Should I just join one of the top tier trades? I can get behind working with my hands for a living.

>>52625040
>disgusting
Ask me how I know you're ngmi.

I have been trading for almost a year now and all I got to show for it is being 1% in red. Should I just kill myself at this point?

>>52625151
>How do I choose a career?
get a job doing whatever and use something you get exposure to there to bullshit your way into a better paid position
repeat as necessary

>>52625151
If you're serious about working a trade, I work in nuclear power plants and it's a great job

>>52625073
It's amazing that all the articles reporting on it had a bullish sentiment, makes me wonder whether it's actively malicious, or if they're just all plagiarizing eachothers articles

Lets all remember that time where we bought a scam sewer diesel stock

>looking up reits
>can't find one
>google it
>just got fucking absorbed by a bigger one

>>52625187
It's actively malicious. Just like them shilling that "inflation is down" (year over year) even though we had positive 0.4% inflation I'm September and October and projected 0.5 in November

>>52625174
Hey Oakridge anon, do you have to get some type of top secret clearance to work there?

Buying uvxy until it spikes again

>>52625220
Fed will slow down rape hiking. But they will continue until morale is restored

>>52625223
I don't work at oak ridge, I work at normal power plants all over the US. Just a regular background check

>>52625220
I'm just going to continue putting 80% of my pay into 300% inverse etfs until something happens

>>52625167
>-1% ytd
congrats anon! You beat the s&p!

How to I profit the best from the impeding SPY collapse? I’m trying to nail down the best Put contract… should I buy for the Friday after the December Fed meeting?

>>52625286
The only shares I hold are 2x or 3x bear etfs I started buying at 4000 sp500

>>52625223
They have inner and outer areas.

>>52625393
You can create leverage with option contracts

why do anything at all other than buy 6/16/23 UONE calls and just wait

>>52625393
I like to keep up to date with Mike Green's SPD for positioning

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/spd-simplify-us-equity-plus-downside-convexity-etf

>>52625490
Thanks I will puy puts since their casino is dead

>>52625512
All I can really tell from that is he doesn't think SPY hits 4240. The rest is just holding index and a tiny bit of insurance to the downside

>>52623971
>Finished Chainsaw Man last night.
Uh what

>>52625512
>>52625571

That fund performs like shit rofl.. looking at their numbers. I don't know how a sp500 "plus puts for downside risk" etf has underperformed the sp500 this year..

Spy puts or SPXS?

>>52625512
What's the technical name for that type of spread

>>52625355

>>52624263
I'm still waiting for a good bull thesis other than pivot, given how pivot necessarily implies the market crashing or something else very bad happening which is.....bearish
Anon a few threads back did make a good attempt in talking about market cyclicality and how the bear market seems a bit played out

Dumb britbong who wants to invest in low risk stocks here. What is decent uk broker

>>52625618
It's just called hedging. If he got really autistic and had it balanced exactly even to the upside and downside and just profited off of divvies and covered call premium it would be called delta neutral

>>52625645
The only bull thesis that makes sense to me is the fed knows everything is really fucked so they just jawbone enough that it doesn't rug.. Basically what they have been doing all year but it's a dangerous game because if bulls get too euphoric it fucks inflation.. I really do believe the feds primary concern is inflation and not the stock market do I don't like this thesis getting our of control

The other would be ukraine/Russia peace. I'm hedged for this with kold/DRIP and would make money anyways

>>52624925
I own 4 shares of hormel foods, just think of all the foods and meats that get distributed to those starving kids and single mothers
https://youtu.be/Cwkej79U3ek?t=18

>futures

>>52620533
KILL this poster

BLACK FRIDAY YESTERDAY
BLACK MONDAY SOON

Can VIX realistically go much lower? I feel like there's still a lot of hesitation and fear preventing it from dropping to pre-pandemic lows.

>>52625645
the bulls think that the pivot will come from inflation rapidly softening, and the that the fed will pivot before any recession event does too much damage
Which is just entirely delusional at this point

>>52625645
No pivot is needed. All you need to know is that corporations always win. In times of crysis, it's poors and middle class who struggle. Corporations will cut costs and reduce R&D (layoffs), increase products prices, buyout bankrupt competitors' assets for pennies. Best bet are consumer defensive / spaples and industrials, since those get subsidies usually when shit really hits the fan historically speaking.
It's not like I expect market to pump again too, I just hold divvy stocks and DCA. Couldn't care less if stock market even stagnates for the next few years.

>>52625838
inflation will remain elevated going into the recession and the fed will not cut rates despite the economy getting raped
if they do inflation will skyrocket to 10%
recession will probably start in earnest around march, and inflation will still be around 5% at that time even if inflation's decline accelerates. Pumping so much M2 into the economy in such a short time has long term consequences and its not just a matter of raising rates a little to curb inflation. If the fed ever loses control of inflation a wage-price spiral could ensue and compound the issue. Powell has talked about this multiple times, and it's why I doubt they will cut rates even if the economy collapses as long as inflation remains elevated.

>>52625838
s&p 500 at 5450 by end of year

>>52625355
T-thank you anon.

>>52625883
furthermore if the fed cuts rates the federal government will once again feel free to spend our way out of the recession, pumping even more M2 and increasing the deficit even more, even if the fed doesn't do any direct QE
that means in 5 or 10 years next time there is a REAL crisis the national debt will be so elevated that hitting 5% interest on the debt will bankrupt the US government. Assuming the fed's goal is to protect the dollar, this absolutely cannot be allowed to happen.
So rates have to go up and stay up to curb inflation and fiscal spending.

In short, we've just about run out of road to kick the can down.

>>52625883
Fed cant even do anything because their balance sheet is bloated. They try and lower rates to accommodate and people will liquidity crunch treasuries

>>52625838
Yeah this is what Snider (who I actually think is credible when he talks about the Eurodollar) and Bond Dickhead say but they're just huffing hopium and delusional, Bond Dickhead has been telling people to buy TLTs for literally over a year now.
I might post that Google maps photo of his house if I get mad enough with bull-shit

>>52625873
Actually waiting for good dividend opportunities to appear myself. Gonna go full retard on SPYD when the time is right.

>>52625700
It's more than that they *want* everything to be fucked rather than preventing a rug. They have known this all along that the rate hikes will break something, Powell has used the word "pain" multiple times now and the market still thinks he is kidding around and is trying to play chicken with him. He wants the market to snap. He has wanted this all along. The pivot will come after the snap, but that still means it snapped. Like do bulls understand the concept of the market breaking? I don't think they do.
The Feds *primary* concern imo is retaining credibility. This may sound crazy but the entire theater now is a credibility theater. If that credibility breaks, it's game over. They don't even care about inflation.
Biden knows this is all about credibility which is why he signaled to Powell to keep hiking.

>>52625873
Kek. Musk is $100BN down. The tech industry has lost more than that as a whole. Apple is about to get raped. The corporations always win though.

>>52625883
>>52625923
Well said. I've noted the same before, that can kick time is over.

I just heard the helicopters fly over my house...

>>52625963
Well fingers crossed for you. I learned long time ago that I'm too retarded to time the market unfortunately.

>>52625923
>>52625963
>>52625970
The one thing I saw that was interesting was that the can't service the debt if the rates stay this high and so they'll have to pivot to avoid bankruptcy? Is there any credibility to that?

any thoughts on investing in non first world economies?

>usa has peaked, infinite growth is a meme, it may stagnate for 30 years
>there's dozens of shitholes with gdps so small that any amount of development will see their economies 10x
>demographics of first world countries is fucked, third world have young growing pops

For me I like vietnam the most, but indonesia seems good. maybe west africa has potential? but i dont really trust blacks to run their government properly

anyone else have thoughts

>>52625985
I'm too retarded also, I have a target in mind and when that's hit I'm out and gonna stay in cash until the market dies and then buy at like 2500.
I just want to pay off my mortgage at this point. Not even on a variable, just want to have the money every month to do fun shit like go on holiday and hang out in cafes all day to talk to thots.

>>52625883
totally agree, it's not a question of if there's going to be a recession, it's when

>>52626012
India is what everyone has bought this year until they have to kneel to workers rights and the demographic cycle.

>>52625996
Republicans running the house makes me lean towards austerity measures as the MMT people have officially fucked around and found out.

Alternatively we get the CBDC and enter the hyper.

>>52625996
Actually a good point, in my understanding they still have plenty of time until that becomes a real problem, probably until like 2024 at least.
Powell didn't seem bothered by it at least.

>>52626014
Yep, saving for the future sucks if you can't enjoy the present at a decent level. My father was saving his whole adult life and he died of cancer at 48. He never got to enjoy the fruits of his labour unfortunately.

>>52626012
strong dollar will fuck shitcoin currencies and emerging markets

>>52626063
what strong dollar? the slide down continues on monday

>>52626063
yeah the dollar has been strong, but these things are cyclical, i feel like usd has peaked, that's the thesis. you can 'buy low' if you buy and non usd denomitated stocks in foreign economies (even japan)

>>52626045
>>52626046
I see, I wasn't quite sure what the timeline on it was but that was the only bit of bull copium I'd seen that made any actual sense

>>52626012
>there's dozens of shitholes with gdps so small that any amount of development will see their economies 10x
Thailand
Philippines
Pakistan (and the other Stans)
Nigeria
Vietnam
Bangladesh
All are on my radar for growth

>>52626058
Fuck, that's sad, sorry to hear anon. My own dad died 7 years ago but he lived until 68 and had way more gfs than I've ever had lmao.

>>52626012
I'm thinking that countries that Belt and Road Initiative goes through can see some growth. Chinese are pumping tons of money into infrastructure right now there. And once infrastructure is done, we can expect business to pop up. Plenty of people will want to trade near the trading route that connects directly with China. And China is trading hub for BRICS (Hong Kong and Shanghai).

>>52626045
Republicants will just jawbone and rubber stamp any democratic measure

>>52626118
Thanks, good to hear your dad had some fun hehe.

>>52625996
the federal government can still fiscal austerity their way out of this for now
but if they add another 10 trillion (ie biben spends us out of the upcoming and long overdue recession) to the treasury balance sheet its joever
keeping rates at 5% plus basically tells congress "if you don't run a surplus RIGHT NOW you will go bankrupt in a couple of years. figure it out"

>>52625660
Unironically the best choice you could make is to just come to America

>>52626046
yeah its going to take a couple of years for the majority of bonds to auction off at the new rates
by 2026 assuming rates are not 0 almost all government debt will have rolled over onto the higher rates

>>52626139
Also, China is doing lots of shilling there. They are turning the sentiment against USA and west in general. The narrative is that West was exploiting developing countries, while China has never did anything wrong to them. China also claims it wants to see those countries as partners, not to exploit them. I think the next few years could be interesting from geopolitical point of view.

>>52626099
India's the big one. Their economic strategy is completely different from what China did

>>52625944
the fed is perfectly capable of running off that balance sheet in just a handful of years and is currently on track to do so
the question is will they commit to permanently solving inflation and the clown economy or will they pussy out

>>52626180
China blew up because of their housing sector imploding.

>>52625944
furthermore the fed can just run a loss lole
they do it all the time
any losses on the fed's balance sheet is just extra M2 injected into the economy, the same way they can just print money to buy shit

>>52626200
Yes. If they stay the course and keep hiking rates to restrain inflation. If they start buying back treasuries they will be delayed

>>52626211
The feds benefit is they can just allow their balance sheet to mature and just buy short dated treasuries or sell long dated to maintain a net-neutral as best as possible and give the money back to the treasury.

>>52626220
the fed hasn't tried any form of YCC despite the yield curve being more fucked than it has been in almost 50 years
honestly this whole fucking question is about the feds credibility, and if they forfeit their credibility by loosening at all in the near future before inflation is completely handled, that's really just a signal that the grand design is destroying the dollar
but I think the grand design is actually saving the dollar and ensuring there is a future where the US can recover from the crunch, so the fed will continue tightening to avoid hyperinflation and let the economy fail

>>52625974
What did you do anon?

>>52621980
Imagine longing semis after the #2 PoW crypto abandons mining and also thinking retail has the purchase power to afford new tech toys. Just because Boomer buffet is whining from his death was about TSM doesn’t mean it’s a smart play. The man is senile and lived during a 50 year golden bull market. SOXL is leveraged anyways and gets rebalanced like daily, you’re losing money holding anything longer than a week.

Hey buckeyes, tell me how my ass taste!

>>52626237
We believe the same thing. I was just saying there are ways the fed can maintain balance sheet run off but they cant run off and lower rates is all I was implying.

>>52626084
>>52626092
I don't think the dollar has peaked
assuming the fed runs off their balanced sheet, the supply of dollars could contract as much as 20%
unless the fed unironically pivoots it's only up from here despite the other banks starting to tighten and rugpull DXY

>>52626208
Could be, although I have hard time trusting any news about China. They are pretty cunning.
Still, investing in anything China related on stock market is quite risky. Same goes for some banana republics. Corruption should be taken into account always. I got burned in past because mining company would not get lease renewed for bullshit reasons for example.

>>52623247
Just wait til next week anon, so I can dump my bags on you.

>>52626276
fuck you rocker reeeeeeeee

>>52626290
China's GDP is probably 40-60% of what they say it is. And they are also peaking demographically. I don't think they are a great long term play, I think they are going to have a japan style nikkei bust and near permanent stagnation in the near future.

>reits
>thought it was mostly housing
>in realty its cell towers, data centers, industrial warehouses, hospitals, farms, logging, etc.

>>52626301
Hopefully. My biggest wish is that production comes back from China. Becoming dependant on them was biggest mistake, especially since they have complete disregard for our laws and will scam whoever they can.

is this the buy of the decade?

>>52626316
production will move to vietnam and other small countries which are somewhat more controllable, but I don't know if it will come back. Mexico actually has a pretty huge chunk of heavy industry from the USA.

>>52626298
That was such a fun game to watch. First good game in the big 10 all year.

>>52626325
if there's a global food crisis in the near future for any reason nigeria is absolutely fucked
not a buy

>>52625167
>-1%
>DXY is 10% up
you're actually up 9%, gj

>>52624039
Why would you short it’s historical $20 support? Look at its chart it’s just begging for a breakout. It’s been awhile since SPY has had some juicy red candles

>>52626302
Its real estate yeah.. Commercial real estate should be fallimg through the floor due to an oncomming recession.

>>52626329
Fed broadcasted a meeting with domestic producers some time ago (2 months ago I think?) where they discussed ways to encourage young people to work in this sector. There is long way from talking to actually doing anything though. Some points made there by CEOs were retarded too, so I don't have high hopes

>>52626302
Depending on which reit

>>52623314
yeah i do this. i like it personally, hands off investing. to those that don't understand trail stops, its just a self-adjusting one way stop. pretty neat stuff, can act as both short term stop loss and long term profit exit (or at least relatively long term before order expiration). can also tighten your stop if you want to increase the odds it'll trigger

>>52624343
nah stops can still sorta work on options if your broker allows you to setup conditional stops on the underlying, rather than the contract itself. say you're long a call, you put a stop to BCO if underlying is up, then go around and put it in a BCC when it's down to let profits run but cut your losses short

t. i do this as a swingie

>>52624187
>Administrator, we’ve located a self aware Goy. Request permission to proceed with termination protocol.

Only just got into dividends, only got 2k in and can only add about £400 a month, first time in my late 30s that i can actually do this, am I doomed?

>Lost decade in stocks
>Lost decade in career
>Lost decade in Ohio State beating Michigan

>>52626339
to be sure, glad it was a game

>you could have put your fed taxes on layaway
>a year later, buy treasuries
>pocket difference after taxes
Ayy lmao

>>52626386
Throw that money into a roth ira for tax free gains. Do your best to lower your living costs and improve your career

>>52626386
>uses GBP as unit of account
Yes, you are doomed.

>>52626386
welcome aboard anon. divvies are a slow burn, and they're typically not volatile like cryptoshit. expect a very boring play, its why divvies are associated with boomers as some boomers use it as their source of income. no you're not doomed, but i'd be realistic about how long you intend to do 400/mo on divvied and maybe map out your divvie yield over time

that is to say, a lot of divvie stocks or etfs have an annual "dividend yield" which is how often they pay out in total per year as a ratio of their stock. or just find total dividiends paid for the year and multiply it. basicallly what im saying 2k and 400 mo is a start but i'd try to see exactly what an expected growth and return would be if it's in line to your expectations, cus divvies are a slow burn. DCAing index funds or mutual funds might be a better fit despite volatility if you're looking to hold decades down the road

idk to me 30s and divvies is just like, way too early, maybe if you were late 40s or in your 50s but divvies arent typically growth, theyre just income

>>52626386
Do you see any way to spend this money on getting some kind of training / new skills? Getting a better paid job would probably give you better results. You could look around in energy sector, maybe they will even hire and train you.

Another relaxing day. Only thing I've done is finished watching that Chainsaw man show up to ep7. Only things I know for sure is that the head dude is a perverted horny idiot, the head girl is hot, and the half-demon girl is hot to.

>>52626461
The exception to this is reits in the roth ira. You get a slow burn build up of these hard assests which will perform during hard times

>>52626463
He's European he's completely screwed

>>52626289
I would rather expect a treasury buyback program between January and March 23. Would be cheaper, would keep the dollar diving would strengthen US production and overall be either neutral or negative on inflation growth

>>52626511
Yeah and they have energy crysis. I assume there could have lots of job openings in that sector now assuming that government is subsidizing new companies there to speed up the growth. But yeah, I have no clue.
Personally I think that investing makes sense if you can't improve your financial situation in any other way. Getting 100% raise would help this anon way more than dividends from such low capital.

>>52626524
the dollar diving is not good for inflation considering how much shit the USA imports
doubt it

>>52622316
[citation needed]

>>52626581

>>52626540
You don't understand his entire networth is tied up in soxl so he needs the dollar to collapse so he can get his now-worthless dollars back.

Baking!

>>52626599
>>52626599
>>52626599
>>52626599

>>52626540
for now yes. I think Brandons plan to not destroy his donors chances for 2024 is what his house nigger did during his term, ramp up oil production, crater prices and jump start us economy, artificially increase prices for imports trying to incentivice more us production and consume, weakening the dollar, making american products competitive while all the bad things get blamed on powell rising those damn rates

>>52626612
based

>>52626511
>...Anonymous (ID: kVV4muuN)
>11/26/22(Sat)21:32:15 No.52626636
>>52626463
>>52626414
Basically thus, in the UK (£35,000) a year which is basically just above average for up north here to get higher I'd need to be a senior dev or work/move towards London,I'd be looking to throw the 400 or whatever extra I can for 10 years or so and throw any dividend returns back in etc, to hopefully work towards a steady monthly income (which of course aiming for the first step of £100+ would be a difficult but nice starting goal)

>>52626730
Forgot to add I'm basically paying for 90% of the bills, mortgage etc as the Mrs earns £19.5k etc

>>52626045
>the MMT people have officially fucked around and found out.
they literally just arrived

>>52624908
>crowdstrike
lol this company is going to fucking TANK at earnings and i have done 0 research. buy puts now