/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52519054
accelerate

>>52519054
That's the scariest chart I've seen in a while, besides ICP, META, and of course, FTT.

>>52519054
Apocalyptic. The stock market has priced in a perfect soft landing with an ultra dovish Fed that will pivot as soon as possible. This is a mass delusion. The Fed has no intention of pivoting and has been transparent that they want higher rates for longer until the world economy breaks. Yield spreads will get way more extreme because the bond market has not yet priced in a recession only a slowdown of inflation. Everyone is living in a fantasy land right now thinking that a recession won't happen.

not my problem

bullish on short term t-bills, better yield with no duration risk. no state tax. long term CD rates are also looking juicy, which is absolutely a bizarre sounding thing to say.

The horror, the horror, exterminate all the brutes

>>52519054
Both.

>>52519054
Risk is always to the upside anon. It's different this time. Yield curve inversion is due to aggressive front-running of the Fed anticipating a recession that isn't coming. Consumers are still flush with cash, the US economy is doing great.

>>52519224
>a recession that isn't coming
The market believes this only because of the rapid pace of the rate hikes and the lack of historical reference for the effects of high rates in a ZIRP QE addicted economy. The consequences of a 5%+ FFR have barely begun to affect the economy. The market is in the denial phase of recovery and still believes that the Fed will pivot at the first sign of a real downturn.
>It's different this time
Yes it is. Since 2008 the Fed has always been there to support the markets. This time is different. The Fed wants the stock market to go down and they want pain. Just last week Bullard came out with his ridiculous fear porn about a possible 7% terminal rate to try and push the market down. Powell's Jackson Hole speech was a direct response to financial loosening in the markets. Everyone is still in denial that the real pivot has already occurred: the Fed is now actively trying to break the economy instead of supporting it.

nice FUD op, we're already in a recession

>>52519453
What's your track record? How can you be so certain

>>52519453
>the 17 stages of grief

>>52519453
People are delusional and there's no hope for them
No matter how many times jpow tells us his plans to crash this economy with no survivors they still won't listen

>>52519513
I don't know how 5%+ FFR will affect this economy because it's uncharted territory. But I am certain that the market is in denial about how serious it could get. The market is so used to ZIRP + QE that it can't imagine an economy without it. That's why "bad news is good news" because the market believes the Fed will quickly return to ZIRP + QE. And what if they don't? The Fed has said higher rates for longer. They've said they will hike into a recession. They said they prefer to overtighten than not tighten enough. They've gotten more hawkish at every meeting and now that the stock market is pumping they're only going to get more hawkish.

>>52519453
Pure bearish delusion. Up only from here.

>>52519122
>number go up means there is no recession
You have to go back.

>>52519453
>I'm bearish because the government doesn't lie.
lol. lmao.

>>52519054
Bullish

>>52519224
>Consumers are still flush with cash
Probably not, but this is still nowhere near the bottom. The Fed wants an AVERAGE of 2% inflation, which means more pain for longer.

>>52521790
This time is different. The Fed is honest about their intentions to destroy the economy and then recreate it in the image of their choosing

>>52519122
> The stock market has priced in a perfect soft landing with an ultra dovish Fed that will pivot as soon as possible.
No. Fuck off.

>>52522225
When you are wrong will you admit it? See you next year.

>>52521934
this guy glows

>>52521790
>the fed
>government
The Biden administration hates the fed right now, you think they don't want to be able to brag about the markets going up like Trump always did?

>>52521934
Inflation was always transitory and is over. Annualize the current MoM CPI. The pivot will happen next month. ATH EoY. Few.

>>52522429
>The pivot will happen next month
Next month when the Fed is even more hawkish I hope you'll break out of your delusion.

>>52519122
Kek remember when they said that they will reevaluate their stance with additional data and people said "LOOK PIVOT" and the stock market jumped 10%. That's the market we are dealing with currently.

>>52522272
Yea he’s a little too poor to not consider that he’s a Fed asset

>>52522567
Exactly because the underlying economy is extremely strong and everyone is afraid of missing the bottom. The stock market has priced in an epic recession that WILL NOT happen. UP ONLY once these fears are dispelled.

The Feds and banks are squeezing all the bears out of the market before they dump everything so technically the FEDS doesn't want liquidity at the hands of retail they want more money for billionaires.

This is the greatest scams in modern history and market manipulation.

China has been locked down for months.
Trucking industry shutdown with fuel shortages.
no imports all corp are hiring a huge number of their lists.

>GOV Bots are all over the place saying this inflation is transitory...

The biggest market manipulation in modern day history destroying retail investors to control the entire supply and market movements

>>52519122
I wouldn't assume anything is priced hin, but I believe that the markets have serious expectations in whatever the individual defines a pivot as.
And I guess the average definition of pivot is the following in succession in a short time span:
>FED reduces the amount of basis points in their raises
>FED stops raising
>FED starts reducing rates soon after they stopped raising
>FED continues an uninterrupted streak of rates decreases until literally zero has been reached
in the meantime
>FED announces to stop reducing its balance sheet
>FED announces to start bond and asset purchases again.
I think this is a fair description of what delusional people in the market believe a "FED pivot" would entail.

In my personal opinion, an expectation of rate cuts for the remainder of this decade is ludicrous.

>>52519054
Lesser spread is good, retards.

>>52519453
Nigga, do you really think they can possibly raise the FFR to 7%?! Raise it to 5% and we'll see financial armageddon thanks to 40 years of derivatives built on easy money. The Fed will continue to threaten to raise interest rates because it's the second best and only alternative to actually raising them. It's either sudden deflationary armageddon or inevitable hyperinflation. They can't admit to this. So they walk the tightrope between the two, threatening armageddon and moving us a few steps towards it, and in so doing delaying the advance and effects of accelerating inflation because Joe Public actually believes their lies. They believe those lies and keep cash parked in the bank, reducing money velocity, and keeping the merry-go-round spinning a little while longer, all the while the banks and their allies will continue creating more debt and purchasing assets before the next wave of inflation hits them. They want their ponzi scheme to continue as long as possible, and this is exactly how you'd do it in this environment. Threaten, threaten, threaten! And in the confused chaos of the meantime, prepare for the next crisis that excuses trillions more debt. Each crisis becoming more and more perverse and extraordinary in order to keep the lie going. The game they play hasn't changed, except this time around they can't completely paper over the cracks and have to pretend to do something about it.

>>52522810
i made this for u

>>52522810
i made this for u

>>52522691
>In my personal opinion, an expectation of rate cuts for the remainder of this decade is ludicrous.
it's not because the fed changes its opinion all the time. wait until shitboxes in california go from 2 million to 1 million and everyone reeees muh deflation. rate cuts are all but assured during the hard landing.

>>52523005
LMAO

>>52519453
The devastation of 7% rates with the debt market as of now will be less than actual WW3.

>>52523108
>less

Meant bigger. Everyone and their grandmother is up to their eyeballs in debt. They are looking to inflate, not deflate.

>>52522810
It won't cause armageddon. The US can handle 7% rates just fine - unironically. The US economy is THAT strong.

>>52523005
kek

>>52523005
fucking saved

Yield on 1 month bonds is now higher than 30 year bonds. The bond market thinks we are right on the edge of the cliff

>>52519106
You forgot LUNA, king.

>>52523173
Hyperinflation

>>52523670
wait, does the 1-month offer the highest yields atm?

>>52523670
They're wrong. The only thing we're on the edge of is a collapse in inflationary pressure along with a soft landing and another long bull market. Up only.

>>52521934
>>52522610

>>52519122
I think you're right. They're telling us what they're going to do and we're all sticking fingers in our ears.

ApocalyptACK