/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52516647
>How

durrr yeah lets just look at muh crypto and muh bitcoin that only existed for 10 years and is 0.1% of the entire global money

what? indices? stocks? equities? commodities? inflation? recession? depression? gas prices? grocery store prices? gas bills? world war 3? supply chain issues? max mass unemployment? no free money printing? no stimulus anymore?

what do u mean line always goes up right plan b said so

The biggest black swan yet

Financial advice: set buy orders for bitcoin at between $3k and $4k

you are welcome

>>52516660
My god... you speak of Tether's destruction. The prophecies...

>>52516647
It's not just about expecting it to drop much further, but also a lack of confidence that there will be any meaningful buy volume anytime soon. Everyone who wanted to invest in BTC already did so and most retail investor's money is locked up at $30k-$60k BTC. Institutional investors already bought the dip. So where is that historic buy volume going to come from that will pump BTC back up to say $30k, let alone anywhere close to ATH, with huge sell pressure at around any milestone from normies who feel burnt and just want to get out?

>>52516663
>Reddit spacing dumb cunt with a VERY retarded opinion
Be quiet.

>>52516692
>It's not just about expecting it to drop much further, but also a lack of confidence that there will be any meaningful buy volume anytime soon. Everyone who wanted to invest in BTC already did so and most retail investor's money is locked up at $10k-$20k BTC. Institutional investors already bought the dip. So where is that historic buy volume going to come from that will pump BTC back up to say $10k, let alone anywhere close to ATH, with huge sell pressure at around any milestone from normies who feel burnt and just want to get out?
Was this you in Jan 2020?

>1 of the 50 billion crypto exchanges being a scam and going bankrupt was biggest black swan i can imagine that could to get me people to sell
whew boy….
> a historic event
PHEW BOY mt gox would like to chat
>only 26%
PHEWWWWW BOY KEK only

>>52516647
>only -26%
>he doesn’t know

>>52516722
no, 2020 was before BTC got the media publicity that pumped it to 60k+. BTC got more new investors in 2020-2021 after the covid crash than in the previous 10 years combined. There simply is no untapped market anymore. Your grandma and grandpa likely know about Bitcoin and have invested in it if they were ever going to.

>>52516743
>its different this time

>>52516692
> So where is that historic buy volume
the buy volume and price appreciation will come with the halving, everyone who wanted to sell did so, not everyone who wanted to buy did so because some people are waiting for even lower entry. when they realise this is the bottom they will slowly start to buy in. halving = half the supply with the same or growing demand

>>52516647
WHY DO NO CHARTING TOOLS ALLOW ME TO ADJUST VOLUME BY DOLLAR VALUE.

If you can read charts you can tell that ETH is leading now and BTC and other shitcoins are following.

>>52516655
>buzzwords
go back

>>52516655
>what? indices? stocks? equities? commodities? inflation? recession? depression? gas prices? grocery store prices? gas bills? world war 3? supply chain issues? max mass unemployment? no free money printing? no stimulus anymore?
None of that shit is relevant to bitcoin.

>>52516755
You are underestimating the millions of people holding heavy bags who have lost their confidence in BTC but don't want to sell right now only because they don't want to lock in a loss. There is immense sell pressure at any break even points, all the way up to ATH.

>>52516677
Tether is never going down, sorry. You've been stroking your dick about it since 2017.
Its time to let go at treat those blisters.

>>52516743
BTC had insane media publicity in 2018 you newfag retard.

>>52516647
To go up you need to find buyers. Now that even 80 IQ retards finally figured out that all crypto is ponzi scam I don't think anyone but people who are already hooked will continue buying. And with inflation putting pressure on them, I doubt they will have the ability to move your precious digital Beanie Babies

>>52516692
>So where is that historic buy volume going to come from that will pump BTC back up to say $30k

Do you realzie the amount of money sitting in stables/cash right now?

>>52516755
>the buy volume and price appreciation will come with the halving
The halving isn't important anymore retard, get it through your retard head

>>52516743
>Your grandma and grandpa likely know about Bitcoin and have invested in it if they were ever going to.

Yeah, just like they got smartphones when only as couple of nerds had one. They never got one later on, nope.

>>52516792
lel

>>52516792
(You)

By now it's just a game of chicken between whales, retail is out for the next couple of years. Institutional is not pumping your bags, they just extracted billions from the space through their FTX shell game. Regulations coming down hard in Europe and USA. Stablecoin robustness gonna get tested for real this time. CZ is rich and will try to protect his casino, but he's not gonna prop up thousands of alts with no profitable product. Market makers are slurping out every little spot of liquidty while winding down prices.
>muh bottom
Sorry, but not by a long shot.

>>52517015
>Stablecoin robustness gonna get tested f-for real this time.
Same FUD as 2017. Some things never change.

>>52516647
>not a single post mentioning the removal of trading fees a couple of months ago on binance
shitty goldfish memory board

>>52516647
Tether will collapse. Dont underestimate them.

>>52516647
>How?
DCG being on the verge of bankruptcy and having a deadline for the emergency loan by monday is how. If they go down, Grayscale goes down. And then they have to liquidate much of, if not all the $10B worth of underlying BTC and $2-4B worth of ETH. That is not even taking into account the contagion from Genesis

Hopefully they are able to get an emergency loan but an event like this would easily be more impactful than FTX

>>52516647
What if people find out it's not real money?
Would that have an effect?

None of the big players have been liquidated yet. Sure FTX etc went under, but they haven't actually sold everything. Their remaining funds are locked away somewhere. Meaning that most of the sell pressure from these events are third party sellers, and they likely would have sold already if bad news were enough to sway them.

But if, or perhaps when, the big players are forcibly liquidated, this will change. That will be enough to move the price in huge ways. The potential is not just the companies already going bankrupt and waiting to be liquidated to the bankruptcy proceedings, which is huge by itself, but also the likes of Grayscale, Saylor, Winklevosses, etc. Hell, even the US government sits on billions in bitcoin from the silk road that they will likely sell at some point.

>>52516743
Four year cycle fags
They all sold
They all gonna pump it

>>52516647
>believing crypto volume
>believing any volume
KEVV

>>52517015
>Institutional extracted billions from the space
Lol, lmao. No they fucking didn't. They all got absolutely fucking wrecked. Most of the money SBF was throwing around was institutional investors and the funds of institution trading on FTX. It wasn't tens of billions in retail money.

FTX/Alameda/FTX Ventures/Solana would have bled the entire space dry over a couple of years. Especially if their regulation plans had come into being and funneled everyone into FTX. Instead, the institutional money got fucked before it could suck it's initial out of retail.

A huge hole draining money out of crypto has just been plugged. It'll be even better when Crypto.com finally goes down.

>>52516796
Most casual retail would have dumped the bottom ala the typical moonbois that buy $100 of BTC waiting for a 100x and then selling in fear when their investment goes to $50. Then you have the retards that dump their life savings into BTC and get heemed and need to sell to survive. These are the retail that you speak of, most of them are already gone. Only institutions and nations remain now.

ITT bobo cope

>>52516647
It's so funny. Gen Z will learn the hard way, I guess.

one literally who scam exchange going belly up is not really a balck swan

>>52516663
yup
bitcoin has never seen a bear market. by the time people realize that it will continue to relentless dump through the halvening this board will be 90% darkjacks.
the current fall from 69k to 16k was from the stock market falling 30% and the forced deleveraging this caused. the stock market is going to fall another 70%+

>>52516655
>0.1% of the entire global money

This is actually fucking big despite all the fud you throwing lmao

>>52517472
In my opinion it has less to do with stock market, and more with the fact that crypto market got saturated. Financial media ran relentless campaigns pumping it, social media and celebrities did too. Every single retard who had money bought.
And since crypto is a ponzi scheme, running out of buyers meant it cannot sustain itself and collapsed. Add interest rates hikes increasing cost of USD, and inflation destroying purchasing power on top of that.
Personal savings rate is lowest in 20 years, number of new credit card accounts are surging, I doubt crypto will ever recover. Too many people who listened to celebrities on Twitter got burnt.

>>52516647
lmao, this volume is mostly due to bitcoin having 0 fees on binance for btc pairs and some other exchanges. bots are running wild.

>>52517193
I wouldn't mind if they have to liquidate so I can get that discount back

>>52517502
>In my opinion it has less to do with stock market
well it's just been nearly 1:1 correlated with the stock market for 11 months and theres no reason to think that will stop anytime soon. once that is established you just have to look at the stock market and figure out how far it can fall before bottoming. the pain has only just begun.
>I doubt crypto will ever recover
it's the perfect ponzi because it cant die. it might be 5 or 10 years before the next bull but we'll have one.

>>52517502
I agree with the idea of saturation. What we're seeing right now is the result of crypto rapidly building up an extractive infrastructure that it couldn't sustain, and certainly can't now that we've gone from $3T to <1T. Crypto institutions basically built it's own Wall Street/City of London around a market that was far too small to sustain it.

All of these massive lending companies: BlockFi, Genesis, etc- what the fuck were they lending for? They weren't lending crypto out to build houses, or start projects, or whatever. Only for speculation. There's a very limited amount of that that this market can sustain. Same for all the big exchanges- CDC, FTX, Coinbase, Binance. There is a limited amount of money flowing into crypto right now. And so they are/were fighting each other for market share, blowing unsustainable amounts of money in the process. Finally, same with crypto hedge funds. How much retail trading is there to fleece? And no real equivalent of tradfi ETF passive investment/pension funds, etc to frontrun. Who the fuck were 3AC, Alameda, a16z going to extract billions from in profit every year if not each other? And so, again, they get to die.

The main thing to understand is that it's institutional 'smart money' that has been burned the hardest by all of this, not retail. All of these massive institutions/funds/firms have been set up with no possible way of being sustainable. They couldn't take enough money from retail to survive. Do they die, burning huge amounts of investor cash before they could recoup initial, and crypto chugs on just like in 2018.

>>52517601
It's correlated because earnings are affected by interest rate hikes and inflation as well, which decreases projections made by investors, thus the drop. Correlation is not causation though.

> it's the perfect ponzi because it cant die
It's more likely that there will be a bran new scam that clueless people will jump on. But who knows. Maybe people will forget about 2021-2022 in 10 years and start buying crypto again.

it's the bottom, the bank blocked me from buying crypto now. when it was 50k they were letting me buy nonstop.

>>52517609
Yeah, good point about smart money. They too were hit. I assume they saw an opportunity to scalp retail and gave up rational thinking for greed.
I assume they were also lured by lack of regulations, which meant they could any dirty trick in their playbook they could. I have no sympathy for them.

FTX for example is under scrutiny now. Person who was hired to clean up the mess reported that FTX had algorithms in place which prevented Alameda accounts from being margin called. FTX also had algorithms which favoured Alameda trades against regular clients. Not to mention their books are mess and it will take huge effort to find all of their assets.
Doesn't surprise me much considering this company was ran by kids in their 20s with no experience. What's shocking to me is that people trusted their hard earned money with those kids.

>>52516647
a black swan is an unprecedented event, everyone knew this was going to happen
everyone that wasn't an idiot
the real black swan hasn't even begun to arrive yet, hold on to your tits

>>52516647
This guy is a massive faggot and I’m pretty sure he’s been bullish the whole way down

>literally no one buying
>price barely has any movement as no one buying/selling
>this is the bottom guys
you guys are fucking retarded. enjoy another 50% down move.

>>52516647
>Selling for a loss.
Only on this fucking shit site would you do that.
Price ain't gonna go up and down with people putting in buy/sell orders.

>>52517472
>bitcoin has never seen a bear market.
Who lies like this? Boldly too.

>>52517502
>And since crypto is a ponzi scheme
Learn what words mean you fucking American.
You buy a coin, you sell for a higher price, it's not a ponzi, you're fucking retarded, fat and possibly American.
My coin base trade history is constantly popping off with buy and sell orders, you know nothing and you let people know it, loudly too.
Shut the fuck up.

>>52517656
I’m not the only one !

>>52516647
Don't ask how, ask when. The house of cards isn't done falling yet.

>>52518800
> technically
Yeah, it's both ponzi and pyramid scheme, you are right.
It's a ponzi ran by exchanges using leverage to increase volume and lure investors.
Pyramid scheme because it depends on retards like you luring unuspecting victims into this scam.
Who knows, maybe we should come up with a new word for scams like this.

>>52517502
>running out of buyers
Download literally any app that let's you trade crypto and you can look at trade history and see people still buying.
You're either lying on purpose to Fudd or you're legitimately retarded and don't know a fucking thing.
Kill yourself.

>>52518826
> it's legitimate because people are still gambling their future using this platform
Cool logic

>>52517408
I dumped my life savings during the covid crash. I'm still up but nowhere near all time highs.

>>52517502
Literally just checked my trade history for bitcoin and yupp.
Constantly seeing green which are buy orders.
You fucking whites and kikes are losing the blummy plot.

>>52518593
>>literally no one buying
Shut the fuck up, retard. Americans not needed.

>>52518844
Speculative assets drop in perceived value once buyers / sellers ratio shifts into sellers territory. That's what I meant by running out of buyers. Never said there are 0 buyers right now. I guess you're desperate to nitpick anything you can in order to cope with losses.

>>52516647
>He thinks the black swan already happened and we're done.

>>52516647
Tether or USDC implosion
Binance crash and burn
Crypto being declared a security by SEC

Any of this could happen at any time and boom.

>>52518910
Is there a safe stablecoin at this point? I thought usdc was pretty safe

>>52517472
This. Bitcoin started under historic low interest rates, and so far only endured the piddly and failed 2016-2019 rate hike cycle. The funny money to pump crypto is drying up. Also, a universal feature of recessions is asset holders being forced to sell to cover liabilities, including BTC. No black swan is needed to dump further, just a natural breaking point during the hike cycle.

>>52517226
Sounds like big players desperately need another bull market

>>52518778
read this if you want to understand what a bear market is >>52517418

going down for a year or two while stocks go straight up and to the right is not a bear market.

when stocks are crashing 85% top to bottom over the course of 5-10 years is a bear market

you're gonna find out just how worthless digital ledgers are when people are sitting in bread lines

>>52519096
They indeed do. For example Saylor's Microstrategy is in net debt now, so unless bitcoin goes back up, they basically have no way of avoiding bankruptcy in the long term. The only silver lining is that at the current price he can afford to wait a long time for that, he is not in immediate danger of liquidation.

>>52517015
this guy fucks

He is right, its surprising crypto held up during such a massive liquidation. But it doesn't mean there isn't more pain to come. The best thing I think is to establish a suicide stack at least, then DCA over the next year. Do not touch margin or money you need to pay bills. You do want to be forced out. Anyone who can weather the storm makes it next bull run.

And if there is no next bull run, then there isn't, everyone said that when BTC was in the 3000s. I remember it, I bought ETH at $105 and panic sold at $88. I could have been a multimillionaire had I just closed the trading screen and fucked off for a year.

>>52517243
The only person in this thread that knows what s up.

4 year cycle

>>52517193
IF you are a moron you think. WOW. LOOK @ THIS FAGGOT

1. DCG already announced a half billion of buyback funds (never deployed) during its back and forth with the SEC over ETF conversion.

2. Greyscale will never liquidate its holdings. They extract rents on their holdings (on behalf of customers). Only redemptions can drain the crypto (and DCG kept all its profits)

3. DCG might have exposure to FTX around $200M (literally nothing)

>>52517554
Keep dreaming dumbass

>>52516647
the ftx collapse is still an on-going event. we already saw gemini halt withdrawals.
you can claim its bottom when more exchanges fall and the us finalizes regulations.

>>52517243
>>52519408
why 4 years? why not 3 or 5?

>>52516663
STFU you dumb cunt. BTC isn't going to go so low. Besides, I have got my USDT available if it does. I am stacking up CHZ and ALBT because of the products they have been building.

>>52517472
>the stock market is going to fall another 70%+
Yes, this is my logic too, nothing to do with FTX/crypto. I am waiting in cash. But I think the stock market will only drop 33% from here.

>>52518910
>Tether or USDC implosion
Will never happen.

>Binance crash and burn
Will never happen.

>Crypto being declared a security by SEC
They'll slow walk the process of making determinations, taking care of the big ones, first, to force the market to self-regulate in advance.

>Any of this could happen at any time and boom.
Just like the fucking rapture, eh?

>>52519441
Priced in

>>52519248

This Reddit speak needs to go away.

>>52516647
>How
>Gemeni and Genesis default next week
>Crypto drops to $12k, contagion spreads, liquidating more and more funds
>sweeping regulations make it impossible for market makers to leverage up like they did in the past, no more massive bullruns
>most shitcoins get classified as securities and the companies/organizations who created them go bankrupt paying fines, and the underlying blockchain networks die once the plug is pulled
>stablecoin regulations cause USDT, USDC, BUSD, etc. to be outlawed
>ban proof-of-work mining because of energy crisis (don't worry, its only temporary goy)
>never lift ban
>introduce CBDCs, gradually make it more and more difficult to bridge with legacy blockchain networks
>eventually ban remaining legacy cryptos as only "criminals and tax evaders" use them

>>52519708
Genesis already defaulted. Funds have already been liquidated. We are 80% down. FTX was not just an over leveraged "fund," it was a gigantic fraud. Its a 1 off thing. Why would a fund get liquidated at $12k if hasn't already been liquidated? Do you think funds are thinking, yep NOW is the time to go all in long? No, people are conservative as fuck right now.

And regulation is already here, just not at the federal level. The federal gov isn't going to do shit because its a split congress. There won't be anything done for 2 more years at least. Then if the GOP takes power they don't give a fuck about regulating crypto. If its the dems then they will create committees and shit for years to "study" crypto and create recommendations. Regulations will come on the state level and most states aren't passing that bad of regulations, those that do won't have much affect on the overall market.

>>52516647
top signal

>>52516647
>Just accept this is the bottom.
cope

>>52516759

price weighted volume
tradingview indicator

>he believes the market already absorbed the FTX's crash like nothing happened.

>>52516743
This is unironically true. I have relatives that don't invest in ANYTHING and knew nothing whatsoever about crypto, however by late 2021, ALL OF THEM knew about crypto and had bought some. There is no new untapped market.

>>52516796
This is also correct and has happened with all major stocks as well. It's pattern that plays out every time. Been in stocks 20 plus years and I have been in Bitcoin since 2013.

>>52516647
>t. zoomer newfag

>>52516743
The only entity left to buy are central banks. Baggies have to hope and pray the Fed starts buying Bitcoin otherwise it’s down only. There’s a reason whale wallets >1000 all sold in 2021.

>>52516869
Consumer debt just hit record levels. Consumer savings is the lowest it has been in years as consumers tapped all of their savings as inflation came up this past year. There have been news stories about both of these things. There isn't a bunch of money on the sidelines anymore.

>>52516647
>Even the biggest black swan in the history of crypto couldn't nuke the price to Hades. Just accept this is the bottom.
Textbook mumu denial phase. Don't worry it will be over soon. After the real bottom is made.

>>52516796
This. It’s where the concept of resistance comes from. Most of the money entered BTC at the highs in 2021. These are all trapped longs.

>>52516647
BTC is simply not a shitcoin or a kikecoin.

>>52517472
Those who were "investing" in BTC like a day-trade system, have sold out their portfolio. There has recently been a lot of events for which funds needed to be elsewhere. I'm thinking it's close to the bottom.

>>52519708

Fellas, a few words about the Bspin, that comes to us from heaven:

>Licensed Bitcoin Casino
>Huge Giveaway with 15,000$ Prize pool
>Safe, secure, with a wide variety of provably fair Bitcoins games

>>52516647
>hard to dump now
>Bitcoin literally 70k just 1 year ago
>bitcoin 16.5k and a half just right now

>>52520533
>retail
You dumb bitch

>>52516647
>Even the biggest black swan in the history of crypto

Mt Gox was a bigger black swan in proportion to the size of the then market.

However a bigger black swan is around the corner. If you haven't guessed, DCG are urgently seeking a billion fucking dollars raise and have just refused to disclose their cold storage so nobody can verify their backing. Also we now know that they have received rejections from the biggest funds going who themselves have been absolutely fucking hammered by Luna, 3AC and FTX. They won't get that billion dollars, so what happens next?

If they are forced to liquidate any remaining holdings, the Bitcoin price will nuke like at no point in history and Saylor in turn will be forced to liquidate. You haven't a fucking clue how much leverage this situation represents and how far this could come tumbling down. Not even FUD, just the facts and everybody would have denied any possibility of 3AC and FTX getting destroyed earlier in the year. Do people really think that the relatively unregulated crypto industry, which is now undergoing its first true bear market, will get through this with less collateral damage than the financial crisis where there was actual regulation? The possibility space for an immense implosion here is very present and anybody discounting it is suffering from the illusion that the entire crypto bull run from 2009 to now have benefited from a very singular set of economic conditions that no longer exist.

You will never destroy crypto but this could go vastly deeper than what anybody imagines. INB4 "le bottom post", you sound like Cramer calling Bear Stearns safe. It took a long time for Lehman Brothers situation to unwind, do you really think this situation has fully unwound within a couple of weeks?

Maximum complacency, maximum risk, get ready for maximum fucking damage.

>>52516663
If it drops that low it's never coming back, the industry will be dead

>>52516647
Equities had a massive bear market rally of like 20% while crypto was nuking lol

>>52520479
The untapped market is those same people buying more. Normies don't know how to use a wallet. They invest in government bonds. The broke ones only use cash. They have zero understanding of how bitcoin enforces a fixed supply. They trust the bank to hold their money for them. Most people significantly less financial literacy than the local crack dealer.

A recovery to bitcoin's previous ATH two years after the next halving would be a 300% increase from today. That's extremely conservative in the context of bitcoin but you can barely find that ROI in a business venture, let alone a password. Not buying this dip indicates a dire lack of intelligence, creativity, humility, and morality.

Fellas, a few words about the Bspin, that comes to us from heaven:

>Licensed Bitcoin Casino
>Huge Giveaway with 15,000$ Prize pool.
>Safe, secure, with a wide variety of provably fair BTCs games.

>>52521001
Fantastic, rational analysis. Is it true DCG needs $1 billion by Monday?
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/crypto-lender-genesis-contagion-continues

>>52519430
>3. DCG might have exposure to FTX around $200M (literally nothing)
Then why are they running around looking for a billion dollars in emergency funding by monday?

>>52519223
cope faggot go read more bear porn. You aren't as smart as you think you are.

>>52516647
>FTX was big it cant go lower
yep set my buy orders for 8k. See you at the red wick to 12k.

I'm tired of hearing this. Ftx was a literally who exchange propped up by dirty money from us politicians and select (((investors))). Controlled demolition so they can launder the money and make the goyim pay the bills. Nothing more.
Black swans
Solar flare
Binance disappearing overnight
Satoshis wallet active and moving coins.
Sha256 compromised (not only crypto but still and I think it already is but not for the public)
Btc or eth double spending.

Everything else isn't important in the grand scope of things.

>>52521505
Forgot tether implosion. But even that will only cause a huge dump not a system failure

>>52517656
Yeah, happened to me too. What country i may ask?

>>52516647
>the biggest black swan in the history of crypto
grayscale or saylor failing would be the bigger black swan

>>52520479
have you ever heard the saying 'a sucker is born every minute'?