/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52359928
because most people have their largest net worth in their homes?

>>52359928
because theres no real cost to being delusionally optimistic, unless you fuck up so badly that you are forced to sell it somehow.

>>52359928
were can we buy puts on the real estate market?

>>52359989
Shouldn’t that make them more sensitive to their “investments” losing money? They think if they close their eyes, the reality of this situation will go away?
They actually BELIEVE their plywood box in Topeka, Kansas 4x’ed in 18 months and would continue to do so over the next 18 months?
Even GMEfags aren’t this delusional.

>>52359928
cope harder, OP. the purpose of a home is to live in it.
the value could go to zero and it would still be better than having to pay the rent jew.
the only people who have a problem are those who for some reason have to sell right now.

>>52359928
>>52359989
>>52360038
It’s partially this, partially the fact that they’ve bought the idea that houses would only keep going up so they just HAD to get in now. They bought based on fomo, not whether or not they actually needed a house. This is especially true of all the overleveraged retards debtmaxxing with 3+ properties that they suddenly have no way of unloading if they need to. These same people are the morons that come on biz and fud nonstop about how everyone is priced out if they haven’t already bought, or that even if prices drop there’s no way they’ll go down more than 20%. It’s comical really, no one else gets this emotionally invested in their financial decisions besides maybe crypto baggies, and at least they could always unload them for a loss. When the housing market really tanks after ranks are raised another 2 or 3 times, these people will be absolutely fucked and I cannot wait to watch the carnage.
It is partially realtors’ fault, I have a couple friends that are real estate agents and they’ve all switched their tune from “line only goes up” to “house prices are unlikely to decline significantly due to inventory” or other vague shit like that.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO MY ZESTIMATE

>>52359928
>"Opinion"
all of these opinion vomiting bots deserve to be lined up against the wall and shot

>>52359928
just fucking crash already so I can buy a fucking god damn house. It's been like 3 years I've been in the mexican standoff with this faggot market waiting. I know it's tempting me by going up yoy but that the second I buy the market is going to fall out and I'll be stuck underwater on my house. Fuck you housing market, crash so I can buy.

Not my problem

>>52359928
they are normalcattle who are petrified of investing in other ways and see owning a home as something else
sinusoidal movement is incomprehensible to them - they live in the now and only ever the now

>>52360157
What's comical is your belief that there will be some kind of carnage.
Even during the great recession the average home price in the US only went down by about 30%.
Yeah, some stupid people will get btfo by increasing rates but it won't be as spectacular as you think.
Here are some reasons why it won't even be as bad as in 2008:
- a LOT more homes are now owned by big institutions like Black Rock
- lending is stricter than it was back then
- the population of the US has increased by 25 million people, thus increasing demand
- there are still trillions of fed dollars in the system that won't be removed any time soon or ever

>>52359928
Homes don't just have value, they're absolutely essential. No matter how high the price goes, homebaggies always have a rationalization that seems reasonable on a surface level.

>>52360038
Most people don't give a shit how much their house is worth because they live in it and don't plan to sell it.

yeah sure.
> bought crypto in 2016
> sold all in late 2017
> bought in late 2018
> sold all late 2020
> bought 5 appartments in europe and currently renting them
> passive income while i wait for the crypto to crash even further
> profit

And you say we are delusional. KEKW

>>52360038
how can rent and housing supply both grow at the same time ? wouldnt these variables be inversely related ?

Where is the zestimate poster? Did his wife finally murder him after the latest price?

>>52360141
It's literally all baby boomers that hoard property and sit on houses they don't even use.

>>52360557
ceteris paribus yes but obviously there are other factors at play eg demand dipshit

>>52360365
Please be bait

>>52359989
how can your home be worth anything if you are living in it?

>>52359928
>delusional of all baggies
My mortgage is less than I was paying in rent seven years ago and my house is comfy (partially because of me making it more so) and I need somewhere to live. Why would I give a rat fuck about the market value?

>>52360157
These realtors are leeches. I'm not buying someone else's bags in a bear market.
They're getting desperate. I get like five picrels a day

>>52360252
Redfin and Zillow execs will be imprisoned for market manipulation/collusion in the near future. Their value estimates were simply tools to drive profits at their property flipping companies. They fed back on each other.

>>52360141
This. My house could go to zero (no buyers, not free houses) and id still be glad to have bought it.

A house is not an investment. Owning a home is a lifestyle choice.

You need to live somewhere so if you live in a nice home in a nice neighborhood with nice neighbors, then it's kinda unimportant what you paid for it, especially if you intend to live there until you die.

But if you bought a house in a shit neighborhood and the plumbing leaks and your neighbors are meth addicted pedophiles then neurotically focusing on your "returns" kinda misses the point.

>>52360365
>Even during the great recession the average home price in the US only went down by about 30%.
Why are anons so retarded when it comes to percentages?
>go up 20%
>go up another 20%
>fall 30%
Brainlet filter: where are we now.
There's also a huge lack of acknowledgement that people took advantage of the increase as value. It's not realized until it's liquid or used to buy something else. That 30% could be brutal for the average person on a cash crunch due to inflation, job losses, etc.

I know this is psychological bait from the ethet but goddamn.

They live inside their bags

>>52361043
I doubt anyone will care enough about it to go after them.

>>52361635
Oh people will care because they were scammed into overbuying, but you're right, nobody of weight will care because government officials were all beneficiaries of the scam.

I bought the top

thing is, I love where I live

Houses are something you can touch with your hand, people always need houses.

>>52361475
>Brainlet filter: where are we now.
we are back to where we started. how is that carnage, you fucking retard?

>>52360704
non-argument. but keep believing in the doom and gloom crash if that helps you sleep at night.

>>52360602
and kike firms like BlackRock

>>52362378
Overleveraged flippers and investors "breaking even" over the course of a decade is generally bad for the economy

>>52362476
I'm not saying it's good. I'm saying shits fucked indefinitely.

>>52359928
The only delusion here is rentoids thinking the average home owner gives a shit about home values. On average homes are purchased to live in not as investments. The average home owner doesn't care at all what the market value is. They have a fixed housing cost they can rely on. That is what matters to home owners. Investors and rentoids are the only ones that care about home values. Investors care about losses and rentoids care about being priced out. Rentoids care the most judging by threads on biz. They are the ones making these housing threads.

>>52359928
Why does everyone take a house as an investment? I understand if you have multiple properties but if you have a forever home, only 1 or aren’t planning on moving the price shouldn’t really matter.

In other words, not everything is an investment you fucking Jew.

>>52360365
>Here are some reasons why it won't even be as bad as in 2008:
Also add to that list most home owners with mortgages have record low fixed rate mortgages. They have no reason to sell or panic. Their monthly housing cost is really low.

>>52359928
kek exactly
hoomers are still in the 'denial' phase of grief
you were suckered into overpaying by a shit ton because 'muh low interest rates'

>>52360141
home values going down potentially brings down the neighborhood due to le wealth effect on the
brain. Spending reduces, stores close, some spend less on home upkeep, spiral down after layoffs. People start missing payments.
congrats now your home is now on the
"wrong side of the tracks"

>>52362856
ssshhh
let them figure it out on their own
it's funnier that way

>>52362711
Meanwhile everybody in the UK is sitting on a 25 year variable rate mortgage. Wonder how many will face repossession in the coming years

>>52360422
based IF TRUE ?

>>52359928
The slowest market still believed that number only goes up until it didn't.

>>52360032

There's inverse real estate ETFs

>>52362882
Can’t wait to buy them up and turn them into rental properties.

>>52362896
nobody "believed" that. people have been saying the market is overpriced for years, yet the prices kept climbing.
this wasn't caused by psychology, it was caused by fed funny money.

>>52362882
No one in America cares what loan terms in third world countries have to deal with. Its Brits own fault they don't have fixed rate mortgages. They allowed the banks to set such ludicrous terms. I agree it must suck to live under bankster tyranny. Brits will need to deal with this going forward. The variable rate loans only make some sense in a stable loan market. With the new normal of huge swings in rates the variable terms make no sense.

>>52362676
Cope.

>>52362960
How do you intend on doing this? Do you have enough cash on hand to compete against the corporations ready to buy up the market?

>>52361827
Good thinking bro. People assume that we all live forever. If my house goes to zero in 30 years (never will - but assume), I have still lived in a nice house for most of my life, raised a succesful family, my wife is happy in our house (she certainly is), and then when I am pretty much end of the road.

This won't happen, but still the example is true. You can't take it with you brehs.

Also with your own house you can do shit rentoids cant. I just built a treehouse for my kids in my tree, a professional home theater in my basement (kicked ass during covid), bidets in my bathroom (once you've washed your ass with soothing warm water after a big shit - you can never go back to just paper), etc.

>>52362999
it didn't make any sense before either. why have a variable rate if the rate is already zero and can only go up?

Renting will always be for poors. Simple as. If you rent you are a serf.

>>52363026
>posting facts = cope
nah

>>52362965

>>52362999
I thought brit loans were fixed for a few years (eg,5) and then simply reset at a new rate for the life of the mortgage? Three resets for a 15 year?

Is that wrong?

>>52363051
posting cope = cope

>>52363052
the one who's coping is the guy praying the market will crash hard enough just for him to be able to buy a home.
I would love that since I don't own a home but it's not happening.

>>52362999

At least they're not speaking German LMAO

>>52363028
Yeah

>>52363101
you're screaming about how everyone else is coping and you've found the asset that never goes down, historically this ends horribly for you

>there are niggas that actually bought this chart

>>52363033
>Also with your own house you can do shit rentoids cant. I just built a treehouse for my kids in my tree, a professional home theater in my basement (kicked ass during covid), bidets in my bathroom (once you've washed your ass with soothing warm water after a big shit - you can never go back to just paper), etc.

as a renter i can do all of that in your house, then just tear it down and leave while youre stuck holding a small deposit. plus i have freedom to move anytime.

>>52361827
this is literally, unironically cope
lol

>>52363141
>you're screaming about how everyone else is coping
that's what the guy I responded to is doing
>you've found the asset that never goes down
strawman

>>52363176
it's pretty amazing how greed blinds us to all the signs, no matter if it's crypto or housing the signs are extremely visible but you can't see them when you're deep in a position
>at least I'm not renting!
>I like my house, I can live in it!
>People will always need homes!
>Institutions will save us!

The same story across many, many different markets. Always ends the same.

>>52362965
Why not both?

>>52361827
just keep an eye on the school district in your area.
If that starts to go to shit, reevaluate

>>52362856
Not everyone lives in a suburb. Do you think my trees will stop paying for maintains or something?

>>52363264

People brute force themselves into delusion because they don't want to face reality.

>>52363264
what greed? I don't own a home. I'm just not delusional.
prices will come down but not as much as people here hope.

>>52362628
>The average home owner
These people aren't the problem

>>52363527
>what greed?
If you can't see the absolutely insane levels of overleveraged greed in the housing market at this point I don't even know what to tell you.

>>52361475
Except the market isn't up 40%, it's up a couple hundred percent. To wit - the neighbor on my left bought his house in 2014 for 150k. The neighbor on my right listed their house six months ago for 500k, which is actually slightly below rate in my neighborhood. Neighbor to the right's house has had zero showings in that six months. Every listing in my town is dropping like a rock. Only retards will lose if they sell, but these people have been living high on the hog taking equity out of their homes for years. That gravy train is quickly grinding to a halt.

>>52363762
if you still don't understand the consequences of $9 trillion of fed funny money I don't even know what to tell you.

>>52359989
This is the dumbest shit ever.
>>52360407
Lol that's all they fucking care about. So many people's entire lives revolve around home ownership.
>>52360557
>build more house
>build more apartments
You really couldn't work that out yourself?
>>52360365
You're a chimpanzee.
Do you know how significant a 30% decline in housing prices is when, at least where I live, are $500k on the lower end?
Do you understand that the 25 million people you're referring to all work as line cooks, general laborers, and walmart cashiers? They aren't the ones you see featured on Million Dollar Listing.
>>52362711
>their monthly housing cost is really low
No it isn't because they didn't get a cheap property at a low rate they bought an expensive property at a cheap rate. Their other costs also aren't low and I don't know if you pay attention to what happens in the world or not but we are in the midst of a recession and layoffs are starting nationwide. Having $400k dual income is great until it's gone and the only employers who offered competitive salaries are on hiring freezes or doing layoffs of their own.
Imagine believing that all of this was sustainable

>>52360365
don't forget the spike in material costs

>>52363527
then you're blinded by pessimism because you're a loser
many such cases

>>52364055
>the printer will save us!
forgot that one, that's a riot

>>52363527
You're letting the things you want to happen cloud your judgement of what actually might.

>>52364078
yeah that's all well and good but... uh.... blackrock. checkmate
>heh, got em

>>52364185
it's called realism as opposed to your hopium
>>52364196
it will not prevent a crash but it has significantly bumped up the mean.

>>52364119
you're too stupid to realize that this is a negative for home owners
enjoy all the extra costs for maintenance / repairs

>>52364217
How? I'd like prices to crash 80% but I know they won't.

>>52364235
there's nothing "hopium" about looking at all the information available to us and realizing that everything points to a crash in housing prices. the hopium is people thinking it won't happen cuz reasons

>>52359928
to quote my dad "My joints are in this house"
As in, he's done so much renovating to it himself its simply his home.

I don't think money plays any roll whatsoever considering its been paid off since 06

>>52359989
uh sir this is an anime loving electronic chuck e cheese trading community. We keep our net worth and life savings on browser wallets running on gentoo 10 year old laptops. Please take your "shelter" investment ideas somewhere else like dave ramsey forums or something like that.

>>52364292
for every 1 person who is like your dad, there's ten people who are overleveraged and hanging on by a thread

>>52364259
My bad, I misunderstood the content of your comment.

>>52364580
it's ok he's obviously a top buyer larping as a desperate renter or whatever. pretty pathetic

>>52364618
If you really think things are bound for a massive crash then you're out of mind.
At best going back to 2020 pricing adjusted for inflation.

>>52364765
>just a small dip to take a breather on the way up, this market is going up forever!
oh jeez oh man

>>52360157
>>52360365
Lol thank you for proving my point. You’re stuck with your $650k McMansion that’s probably worth $400k at best, cope harder.

>>52365007

More like $200

>>52360987
My childhood best friends mom is a realtor, and she’s constantly posting shit like “here’s why this crash will be different”, graphs with supply showing low supply with absolutely no references/sources, quotes from other home baggies talking about how glad they are they bought. If that’s not a top signal idk what is. Now that I think about it, realtor cope is probably the best sign of an impending crash. I wonder if they were saying this shit before 2008 as well.

>>52365073

Realtors make money off transactions so they're willing to say anything to take that sweet percentage off the top. You can't believe a single fucking thing they say.

>>52365073
What do you expect when 80%+ of the country is vaxxed + boosted, that they apply logic, reason, and perhaps even look at a chart or two?

>>52365093
Yeah the ironic thing is that had I let her use me for commission like she wanted to when I first graduated college, I’d be sitting on a fat value increase. But I don’t really care cuz I wasn’t in a great position to buy a house then, and I wouldn’t be able to be nomading around europe and Asia right now if I had bought in 2020 or earlier.

>>52365093
>>52365073
Can't believe people still use realtors in this day and age. Talk about useless middlemen.

>>52363465
check
all real estate is local

>>52365271
practically legislated.
Most people couldn't even get a loan for a house without getting a realtor involved.

>>52365073
>graphs with supply showing low supply with absolutely no references/sources
It's true though. The supply of new houses is not keeping up with demand (from banks or otherwise).
The time and cost of manufacturing a home that is valued under 500k is going to be impractical until some big shifts happen.

>>52365319
cope more, baggie
supply can turn on a time
all it takes is people putting their house on the market

>>52359928
It will be fun to watch unfold. Prices are going to have to come down as demand has completely dried up as nobody wants or can afford to pay over $3500 a month on a 30 year mortgage for some shit ranch home that cost $150k in 2014.
It just takes one or two low ball accepted offers to tank a neighborhood.
Now I hope AirBnb’s are the next to go.

>>52365302
Maybe in your country idk. I've bought and sold without them np. Great websites here though listing all the properties for sale.

Solicitors, now they are true parasites that you can't yet do without. I will dance a furious victory dance if their jobs can get replaced by smart contracts.

>>52359928
At least we still have our houses. If you buy crypto you spend the rest of your life shitting yourself that someone might hack your account or the exchange goes under or your coin does a luna.

>>52362882
Millions

>>52363033
>just paper
Implying you still use paper. You aren't some poor faggot who can't afford the warm air blow dryer right? Right? Please tell me you aren't some cringe male asshole touching faggot.

>>52365420
>At least we still have our houses
grade A 100% premium grass-fed cope

>>52365377
>It just takes one or two low ball accepted offers to tank a neighborhood.
This is the best part of the real estate ponzi, some random fucker down the street sells and you magically lose six figures overnight. It's the ultimate bagholding.

>>52364351
which is exactly why the US has gone to shit but thats old news.

>>52360407
Most people have a mortgage, if they cant afford to pay it it won't matter if they plan to sell it or not

>>52360407
until they have to. Tech always is the canary in the coalmine for layoffs.

>>52363033
wish i could shove my face between those ass cheeks

I just closed on a condo yesterday. Will I make it?

>>52365073
A few months ago an anon linked a thread from a mortgage investment forum from 2006-2007 in a thread similar to this one. The people in that thread were spouting nearly the exact same rhetoric. Wish I saved it, it was a great read.

>>52365500
Checked. Based random fuckers down the street healing the market.

>>52365706
They were asking for 300k and I paid 285k though. I'm sorry for whatever harm I caused.

>>52362628
This, but good luck convincing op and his rentoid ilk. They love to reee about housing crashes but at the end of the day they're the one living in ze pod in niggerville kek

>>52360365
perfect top indicator lmao.

BlackCock just took a massive loss.
Institutions are not loaned money on fixed rates and have to refinance to higher rates or face margin calls from unprofitable units.
Lending is returning to 2007 standards because of the weak mortgage originations and will be even weaker as JP continues tightening from his own words.
People will lose their jobs in Q1-Q2 next year, screencap this post.
Consumer savings rate is lower than 2006-08.
Trillions in Fed dollars is not reserved solely for the US and we bail out banks in other countries to prevent systemic failures.
DXY went down because of overseas tightening and hope that they will pivot because of some dipshit economists say so.

Homes will only crash when you retards stop having so much cash in your savings

>>52362628
They probably will care if they lose their ability to pay for it and are forced to sell for less than they owe.
How can so many of you not understand the very basic concept that all of the factors which caused the housing market to rally into mania have been reversed and are now gone or going away?
>low interest rates
gone
>institutional buying
gone
>easy money through stock market / crypto
gone
>meme tier job market where everyone makes $250k/year starting
going away
Don't worry though bro, the 10s of millions of illegal immigrants shacking up 5 deep to a bedroom while working as line cooks and landscapers making $15/hour will propel your housing market to new highs.
I swear it feels exactly like I'm arguing with retards about BTC in January.

>>52360987
lmao reply with this image

>>52359928
My house is for living in. 1 house = 1 house.

>>52360422
Land owner cuck. I am renter chad that doesn’t even pay rent and costs you faggots thousands of dollars getting bailiffs to kick me out and then I pour concrete down the toilet and piss and shut all over and you can’t sue me because I have no money and then I go to next victim like an alpha chad and repeat the process, living rent free and making you land cucks cope and seethe

>>52365916

>Give me those shekels in your savings goyim I deserve them not you

>>52359928
They just run the script: because your parents paid off their house in 30ies, it must be a good idea for you to take a 30-year loan at whatever asset price ... right ... right?
Normies love scripts. "Hi, how are you?" "Did anything fun this weekend?" "We are becoming homeowners!" "I have to leave early: a little league game!"

>>52359928
Because if everything goes to hell, I can just inhabit it, work it and build on it. It's called having a territory and for me, it's a pretty valuable option. Call me when you can inhabit gold, silver, cash, bitcoin, livestock, wheat or anything else you can think of. Call me when you can grow tomatoes on the backyard of your car and boat. Call me when you can add an extra room or bathroom to acommodate more family in your stocks portfolio.

>>52366992
>I can just inhabit it, work it and build on it
Not when niggers move in and take over the entire block.

>>52359928
Because a lot of them are women who pay 0 attention to any of the finances regarding their "investment" while the husband handles everything.

>>52365916
Have I got news for you.

>>52367048
This too. Rational discussion is impossible when basic realities offend half the electorate.

>>52367048
>SWEETIE IM GETTING ANOTHER ABORTION SO WE CAN SLURP THIS TASTY 5% CORRECTION ON BOISE REAL ESTATE

>>52367042
Just buy a grenade launcher, bro. Build a fortress around your territory, install some alarms and get a couple of Beligan sheepdogs. Have kids and practice shooting with them. Get an armored vehicle and you're good to go. Nothing is impossible in the land of the free.

>>52360816
just live on the street, then.

>>52367331
There was a group of preppers that tried to do this in Detroit not too long ago.
They purchased and cleared up a few lots, did some 'nonpermanent buildings" iirc. The city took umbrage to this for some reason.
City turned off their utilities. After they demonstrated a minor bit of self reliance there was an armed response by the city and the entire thing was cleared for use by feral niggers to throw those mini liquor bottles onto.

>>52360141
That’s a bingo. Also with a fixed rate my mortgage(rent) is locked in for 30 years.

>>52359989
that's not actually an argument/answer to the question opee is asking
there is no logical reason an investment being crowded should make the average investor in that asset class more delusional
unless you want to argue it's because most people who crowd investments are the dumbest. but then go and say it directly

>>52363149
you might think it's like that, but you are dead fucking wrong lol.

>>52359928
I don't fucking get it. Half a year ago it's a housing crisis because people are selling thermite filled mcmansions for twice the price they bought it for, now housing will be affordable for zoomers and that's supposed to be a bad thing? Cheap housing is GOOD. Not my fault you bought a second mortgage to get a wi-fi capable fridge.

>>52362628
>be dumb mortgage nigger
>get muh 3% fixed loan
>lose job after 45 because no one will pay 200k to retarded boomer
>still 20 years to cuck for the mortgage
>move to San Francisco apply for housing
>overdose
>disability
>die
>shart
>nigger steal your EBT card

>>52367441

source? I would like to read about that

People overspent on subpar flips in the heat of the moment. Case and point: Redfin just axed it's home-flipping program. If you didn't spend $30k+ over-asking because you were impressed by the cheapest bathroom tile materials from home depot in the powder room on the first floor, then you're fine.

Who gives a fuck? You are supposed to treat a house as a place to live in, not as a speculative investment.

>>52369534
And yet here we are.

>>52360252
>interest rates +100%
>house goes up +15%
what the fuck

>>52360032
Puts on NAIL or find the inverse of it

>>52360252
now do your tax bill, insurance costs, don’t forget the agent fees of 6% and you are only paying interest for the first decade of paying off the loan lmao

>>52360038
kek REbaggies

>>52362711
They financed a large principal and now they are likely upside down. So either they sell at a loss or overpay for a depreciated asset and be stuck in their mortgage for the full term. So either they add to the ever-growing supply which drives prices down, or they have to suck it up and not buy another home for 30 years, which will dry up demand, thus also hurting the price.