/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>51623839

The media says the housing market is a bubble. Think opposite. Its not a bubble. Buy now or get outpriced.

>>51623839
>insane interest rates
we had the lowest rates in decades retard

>>51623839
>Sorry sweaty. The housing collapse is cancelled because it’ll like, totally destroy my portfolio if it did

>>51623947
women are fucking disgusting

I bought in 2017 and even though it was overpriced then I've got 150k in equity now. Shit is retarded

It isn’t possible for housing to completely crash
Correct, yes. But without a huge increase in supply there’ll still be high enough demand for housing to keep prices high, in the medium-long term.

>>51623947
On a macro level, nothing says big line goes up forever. Every society has its peak.

Imagine being near the bottom and saying there's a bubble

>>51624003

>>51623993
Empires don’t collapse overnight though. Long term usa might be doomed but it’ll remain the richest country in the world for a long time yet.

>>51623922
lmao the media JUST started saying that after 5 years of chanting "it's not a bubble! it's not a bubble! buy now or be priced out forever, goyim!" because it's becoming obvious to anyone with 80iq that the housing market is in a bubble showing signs of increasing weakness and they need to retain some credibility as it bursts

>>51623839
>millenials
A sweetie, the housing market is owned by foreigners(Gen x and boomer) and big businesses lol get your facts straight you dumb fucking nigger faggot fuck.

Housing crash incoming will clear the way for millenials to finally enjoy the world and have a house cheap!

>>51624003
>>51624018
>THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT
dumb home flipping faggot your kind gets the rope first

>>51624048
Are you a bot or just retarded? I just showed you that housing is cheap, of course there could be over leveraged people or go down for a short period, but you're saying that housing is high and you're plain wrong, at least stocks are higher.

I mean, the proof that you're seething is that you're a wagie that can't afford, meaning if it was a bubble you could get a loan and buy

>>51623839
>>51623936
Can someone explain this to me? I knew a bunch of millenials who fomod in like 2020/2021 so they could get a low interest rate. But it seems to me that the low interest rates were just bait to get them to fomo at the top. How retarded am I?

>>51624036
Lmao. America are such scammers
>yes, foreigners, buy all our over priced shit real estate
>prints money, crashes economy, makes foreigners sell their bags

>>51624091
>But it seems to me that the low interest rates were just bait to get them to fomo at the top. How retarded am I?
You are correct. If you buy at a low price, high interest rate, you can just refinance when the interest rates go down. If you buy at high price, low interest rates, congrats on becoming a slave/bagholder to your own property and making someone else rich.

>>51623922
good afternoon, drooling nigger retard.

https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/september/mba-newslink-thursday-sept-22-2022/mba-august-homebuyer-affordability-up-3rd-straight-month/

>>51624003
>>51624018
These are not bullish charts my man. Ascending channels break to the downside and failing to break resistance at 0.13 three times in a row means that is a hard ceiling now.

>>51624153
>TA

LOL, are you trying to killing me with laughter?

And I'm not saying it's bullish. The prices probably gonna go down, at least short term say one, two years, hard to predict, with the rates. It's gonna go up long term like always (with some exceptions like 08 of course) and no crash.

Of course if you're willing to wait 5-10 years there could be a period where interest rates are high enough, and prices lower adjusted for inflation, and try to buy low predicting a crash which probably will happen. However, you also lose because of the inflation until then, meaning prices will be better compared to future dollars, but you'd perhaps make more buying now, it all depends on how much it crashes.

Betting or caring too much against housing is generally retarded unless it's obvious and everything is flashing sell, which is impossible now because it's unaffordable, if anything it will just revert to "normal" whatever the fuck that is, but I think it will go up based on supply and increased materials

>>51624216
If TA works on SPY as an individual index its going to continue to work on modified ratios that use SPY as a benchmark, that's just basic communicability

>>51623839
yes but those people also locked in generationally low interest rates for 30 years and they get a roof over their head which is the most important aspect

meanwhile rentoids will need to contend with ever-rising rents and a total lack of stability in their lives as they rent either some cuckshed in the sky or a rental home from Blackstone

your post reads like one of those priced-out rentcucks seething

>>51624091
Very retarded

as long as those buyers weren't as retarded as you, they opted for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at sub-3%, which is pretty much the lowest rates ever. Regardless of the purchase price of the house, if they can easily make the monthly payments work, that's all that matters. Now they have a roof over their head with a constant dollar monthly payment in a world where inflation will likely be elevated for the forseeable future

>>51623839
>Be millennial
>Bought house right before gigapump 2 years ago in a state that will only see more growth
>2.25% interest rate on a 30y fixed

>>51624290
That's the problem, TA doesn't work. But keep believin

>>51624083
>he thinks that housing index and astrology dictates that housing is cheap
LMAO OMG MY MAN YOU ARE SO FUCKEDDDDD LOL YOU'RE SO FUCKING STUPID AHAHHAHAHA YOU'RE FUCKED NIGGER
I BET YOU THINK P/E RATIO DICTATES MARKET VALUE ALSO! OMG AHAHAHA SO FUCKING STUPID

>>51624324
Yeah, but they can't refinance or move their money to other asset classes. They are stuck with their house and location regardless of how much their housing price or job market crashes. If they lose their job, they are fucked.

>>51624334
If TA doesn't work why are we looking at charts fren.

2.25% VA loan checking in. Stay poor and give all that interest to the banks

>>51624324
So you're saying it would have been a good move to buy last year? Idk man, I mean I can see the reasoning, it just sounds like goy trap reasoning to me. Also the fact that basically everyone thought exactly what you're saying is what makes me think it's not true.

>>51623839
> 2.85%, 30 year, fixed
> similar house next door is sold this week for $175K more than what I paid for in 2021
> renting a 2 bedroom cuckshed is more expensive than my mortgage

>>51624091

The low interest rates drove reckless housing speculation with regular Karen roasties deciding to become home flippers and investors. This rose prices sharply causing a big FOMO among normies and they thought they had to "buy now or be priced out forever."

It was just a chain reaction of psychological fear and greed as all markets are.

>>51624392
>>51624405
Good price + Good rate > Good Price + Bad rate > Bad price + Good Rate > Bad price + Bad rate

>>51624340
Adjusted for money supply, it's around 2013 levels, meaning we're in a bubble for ten years.

Yeah you're fucking brilliant. Of course it got more expensive, maybe the money didn't go to the goyim, maybe there aren't houses, but saying that the price is high so it goes down is retarded.

>>51624380
>t. happened to be in the right place at the right time and now considers himself a self-styled financial genius of planned and deliberate action
many such cases

>>51624465

I agree this time its different.

>>51624483
You have to agree because if it does you're fucked. It's so easy to spot biases man like overleveraged idiots are so fucked.

>>51624366
why would you ever want to refinance when you literally locked in the lowest rate in history?

>they are stuck with their house and location

Believe it or not, buying a home is supposed to be a long-term investment. If you're not looking at it from that perspective you're doing it very, very wrong. Don't buy a home until you need one. Also yes obviously you need to do some degree of due diligence on the home/area you buy a home in because again, you're doing this for a decade plus. People who FOMO'd into a home they didnt need in an area they didn't do much diligence on have no sympathy from me.

>if they lose their job, they're fucked

This applies to almost everyone.

>>51624392
It was among the best time ever to buy a home in 2020-21.

>>51624340
JUST TWO MORE WEEKS HOUSEBROS

THE RATINGS AGENCIES WHO DIDN'T DO SHIT IN 2008 NOW THINK THEY CAN PREDICT WHEN HOME PRICES WILL FALL.

JUST TWO MORE WEEKS AND HOUSING WILL BECOME AFFORDABLE AND EVERY NIGGER ON WELFARE CAN AFFORD A BEAUTIFUL HOME!

>>51624613

Actually the great reset will require a new currency to buy a house.

>>51624613
>all caps seething at a refusal to believe in supply and demand economics

the demand for your OSB and drywall monstrosity is non-existent because mortgage rate hikes have curtailed the availability of credit for the average nigger cattle first time homeowner.

>>51624596
>why would you ever want to refinance when you literally locked in the lowest rate in history?
My point is that the people with a higher rate, but lower price can refinance, which gets them a better deal than low rate, high price chuds.
>People who FOMO'd into a home they didnt need in an area they didn't do much diligence on have no sympathy from me.
Of course, but this is easier said than done. Especially for normies who can only think of getting their "dream home", without consideration as to how it is priced.
>This applies to almost everyone.
Less true of people who bought at a low price, and therefore can re-sell at a low price, minimizing their losses, and relocating anywhere.

>>51623947
Ooooh roastie

>>51624216
>posts a chart
>then goes saying TA is retarded

the absolute state of housing niggers, you are as stupid as the forever holders retards, enjoy the next 20 years

>>51623839
>with insane interest rates
2011 to 2021 were the lowest interest rates in human history

>>51624654
sucks to be a first time homeowner, I guess. No one with a fixed rate mortgage they can afford will be incentivized to sell at depressed prices, so there will just be a wide bid-ask spread and minimal transaction volume until rates begin to come down

on the margins, if people lose their jobs, there could be some firesales but if you're banking on MUH EPIC 2008 CRASH you're in for a rough time my guy

>>51624666
they can potentially refinance at some point in the future if rates come down again, yes, but again - who gives a fuck about timing the purchase of their home? Why jump through all those hoops instead of capitalizing on the incredible opportunity in 2020-21? Buyers now are totally fucked though and yes will need to gamble on the fact that prices will come down to a level they can afford.

>>51624368
>Looking at price history to see how it's historically valued against itself is TA.
TA is pseudo economics drawing lines on charts trying to predict the future with no underlying fundamental reason to as why said lines will predict price. If you think TA works you should also be 100% in the camp that astrology works as they are both based on the same fallacy and both attempt divination.

>>51624717
>>Looking at price history to see how it's historically valued against itself is TA.
It actually is

>>51624613
Every nigger will have a house because the banks will give them for free for muh charity once people start jumping off the buildings, people thinking they will be able to buy a house will have a rude awakening once they become part of the muh gibs agenda

>>51624712
>who gives a fuck about timing the purchase of their home?
I do, especially because do to life circumstances I was not positioned to buy during the 2020-2021 years.
>Buyers now are totally fucked though and yes will need to gamble on the fact that prices will come down to a level they can afford.
Yes, timing matters more in the sense of avoiding buying the peak of generational bubbles than buying at the absolute bottom. In that sense, it is obvious that even adjusted for rates and inflation, we're currently at a generational peak.

>>51624712
>people need to sell a house as always (marriage, death, job loss, etc.)
>homes are priced relative to other comparable houses (literally "comps")
>people who need to sell a house do so at a lower price to actually realize the sale
>your price, in comparison to their selling price, declines in value

you don't have a say in the matter, retard. you can cope and seethe and claim it was never an investment, that you were never going to sell this decade, that you were never going to sell ever, etc. but the value of your home will go down.

>>51624738
No it's not TA. Is calculating the average price of goods today and the doing the same tomorrow TA? No it's fucking not. Using price history as a way to predict future actions has no fundamental basis in reality thus it's a fallacy and can never work.

TA only appears to work as it's a self fulfilling prophecy of every single prediction being made all at once by a population of people. One or a set a of people inevitably get it right and then everyone looks to that person and their TA as an example of it working and everyone else just got it wrong. It's the exact same thing as looking at the stars. We also know that a very small population of people will get every single call right throughout their lives doing this due to random chance. It's like a gambler who gets 10 bets in a row right. He didn't do anything special that allowed him to predict the future, he is just an outlier of probability. A 1000 years ago these people would have been called prophets, now they are seen as financial geniuses even though they are simply guessing based on nothing but gut feeling.

If TA works you should be able to do TA on the vast amount of weather data humans has collected and make accurate predictions of future temperatures and make all weather balloons/satellites obsolete. If you cannot do this then TA is a fuckers game based on a set of gamblers with just some getting it right due to random chance.

>>51624747
*due to

The motorcycle death rate would probably be comparable to the bicyclist death rate, if motorcyclists acted as cautious as road bikers.

>>51623839
rent has gone up a lot. the real bargain was getting a smallish house with low rates. even at the high prices, you can't rent a broom closet for that kind of payment now

>>51624763
the value of one's home matters only twice: when you buy, and when you sell. If you're not doing either of those two things, who gives a fuck

>>51624980
What about when you lose your job?

>>51624980
>the value of one's home matters only twice: when you buy, and when you sell. If you're not doing either of those two things, who gives a fuck

many poorfagged retards who bought within the past 6 months (i.e. after mortgage rates jumped up) will care. you can't easily refinance with >80% LTV, much less negative equity.

>>51624334
TA is just a visual representation of buying/selling pressures
a lot of TA users take it to retard-tier levels like stochRSI worshippers, and many TA posters are insufferable faggots who pretend they've never been wrong and can't accept that whales purposefully rug them with an unexpected dump or pump when the TA looks overwhelmingly likely to go up or down, respectively

tfw when you're a millenial who didnt buy a house because his savings have been ravaged, rendered nul and have the same purchasing power to that of an Ethiopean tribesman.

>>51624819
>TA on weather.
Actually, that would work even better than TA on financials, because the weather is even more cyclical. Day and night, summer and winter, el Nino and la niña. Even the angle of the earth's axis cycles and creates cyclical ice ages. There are lots of predictable cycles in finance as well, monetary tightening or loosening, for example.

>>51623947
Typical gaslighting whore

bump

notice how all the housing bears have to dig deep to find some meme chart of some irrelevant statistic of a statistic

I sold my house in Charlotte at the peak back in January for $1.5m. I had a $685k mortgage. I estimate I'll buy my house back for $685k in 24 months. A 55% drop from peak to trough feels right.

>>51623839
>Insane interest rates
I got a 1200 sqft condo in the center of my city for 300k at 3%. I have zero regrets and I don't intend to sell the home so the value means nothing.

>>51623839
Their rates are low it is fine. Only ones screwed are those that purchased in the last 3 months or the next 3 months. Expect prices to stick for a while. At best we get a 20% drop over the next 12 months.

>>51624034
It was a bubble before. That bubble popped and dropped us to where we are. Now it's not a bubble. They're always wrong.

>>51623936
With houses the only thing that matters is the monthly payment. The rate hikes mean the same house now costs 50% more per month.

>>51624091
Low interest rates with a high cost is just as good as high interest rates with a low cost. In fact it's better because you have more equity.

>>51624473
>happened to be
2008 through 2020 was over a decade of cheap housing prices/rates

>>51624666
>My point is that the people with a higher rate, but lower price can refinance, which gets them a better deal than low rate, high price chuds.
You're forgetting the part where interest rates were at historic lows. You're a retarded zoomer that grew up in a world where free money was the norm. The true normal though is 8% or more 30 year fixed mortgage. You'll literally never refinance for anything lower than 6% for the next 40 years.
If you don't have cash to buy a home you've missed the boat. Sorry kid.
>Everyone is jumping off the titanic so they must just be stupid goy
>I'll stay and refinance onto a better boat later

>>51627678
>You're forgetting the part where interest rates were at historic lows.
They'll be back near those lows once whatever arbitrary "curbing inflation" threshold is reached

Last 30 days +1.0%
t. Zstacy

>>51627718
Kek no

>>51627718
For reference interest rates went low to fix 2008 and then low again to fix covid. 8% is the average norm. We have 2% to go and you'll never refinance.

Home flipping is probably the most retarded thing ever. I don't normally like government regulation but people literally need to be able to afford a house or the whole country won't make it another 10 years.

>>51624101
absolutely based. fuck foreign investors. this was a way better idea than just making foreign investment in real estate legal.

>>51628365
*illegal

>>51624330
rentoids hate him for this one simple trick!

>>51624026
it has been on borrowed time since 1965, collapses are gradual and then "sudden"

>>51628148
>>51628172
wrong, after the fed crashes the economy again we'll cut rates down to zero to "save" the markets. And we'll repeat the cycle again and again.

>>51628172
>taking the average of a nearly 40 year downward slope

>>51628433
>Save the market by blowing out inflation so money is cheap to borrow but you can never borrow enough.
Shut the fuck up when adults are talking.

Too many idiots here bragging about how they've fixed in a low interest rate for xyz years and therefore they are ok.

The collateral for your mortgage is your home. If your home plummets in value, the bank will come knocking demanding the difference. Your fixed rate mortgage will count for fuck all.

>>51623922
No, it's definitely a bubble but it's a bubble protected by the government. If it pops, it's all fucking over so they'll throw money at it for years. This is just kicking the can down the road however, someday it WILL pop. And it will be beautiful.

>>51627628
yes, retard, i understand. as i said, "right place at the right time." the average person is spends the first 22-23 years of their life in school or training and another 2-3 years after that grinding their way up to a respectable wage while building savings (unless they had parental help.) few people under the age of 28-30 had the chance to buy a house in that period of time, unless that "house" is an $80k shitshack in sisterfuck nebraska.

>>51623984
Bought in 2017 myself. Could have sold for around 150 to 200k more than what I paid but I like my 3.5% rate and my low monthly payment which allows me to pay an additional 30% of my monthly payment on the principal every month.

>>51624712
>on the margins, if people lose their jobs, there could be some firesales but if you're banking on MUH EPIC 2008 CRASH
I just want to buy a house from someone who was bankrupted by Celsius or some other crypto scam. Is that so much to ask?