/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>51591472
Time to slurp 2-year t-notes?

>>51591472
1 month is up 20 bps today. As volatility moves up the short end of the curve, something is going to crack. We're heading towards a 2008 tier credit freeze, but this time it's precipitated by government bonds instead of mortgage bonds.

>>51591735
Debt to gdp is also twice as high as before 08

No way they can afford any bail outs this time

>>51591566
2y, 10y and 30y yields all broke out of their 30 year downtrends. Buying notes or bonds is risky as shit

Bruh I don't understand any of this boomer shit. Explain to a zoomer. I bought a house last year on variable mortgage. Am I fucked?

>>51592123
You’re already dead my friend.

>>51592123

variable mortgages are reserved for the clinically retarded so yes, you are fucked

>>51592123
yep. I did the same btw. we're done

>>51592123
Depends. Do you have a gun? If yes, how hard are you willing to tell the banks and their cronies to fuck off?

>>51592123
>>51592140
>I bought a house last year on variable mortgage
You are an absolute rate, especially when rates were ~2.5% last year. What rate did you get, 2.4%? GG bro, now it's 6.5% and going up, and all because you wanted 0.1% less. Honestly, just sell now, maybe you still have a chance to get out.

>>51592140
Not if you were planning on selling

>>51591472
2008 was giga based
Cod WaW was new
And Cod MW was still popular
I’m ready for another 2008 LFG!!!

>>51592688
>>51592140
I got a variable of 1.2. I just looked at long term data and generally variable is quite a bit cheaper in the long-run. I also didn't want to commit to owning long term and wanted to avoid breakage fees but I guess I shoulda just rented. I thought rates would go up but not so fast

Now I'm at 4.2, my mortgage is only 200k tho so I can afford it but don't wanna get rekt on my house value. desu seems like prices are still going up where I live (small city in Northern Canada)

>>51592022
>Buying notes or bonds is risky as shit
Isn’t that only true if you expect the fed to default? Otherwise what’s the risk?

>>51591472
Can t wait for it my cash is ready

>>51593153
Would you really trust someone with this level of debt >>51591852 on a variable interest rate to not go bust?

>>51592123
Dude, go read The Grapes of Wrath right now. I hope you find a big titty mommy dommy to feed you.

>>51593153
The only institutions holding them are pension funds and investment banks who are forced to through regulation. The risk of default is very real, but by the looks of it other important economies will default before the US does so maybe wiping the slates clean and starting over is the best scenario under these terrible circumstances. Bond holders would get fucked though. Banks would be made whole but you wouldn't

>>51591472
We going full 1980 up in this bitch

>>51593758
How did all of this even happen? What the fuck exactly is crashing?

>>51594092
Entire countries have been swiping the credit card and living in excess for 30 years now without a care in the world for what might happen in the future. We have finally gotten to the point where our heads are under water

>>51594172
So now what? Everyone's shit gets took?

>>51594812
People will get poorer as the value of assets falls and the cost of living rises. Combine this with stagnant wages and high unemployment.

EU is a wildcard. They are playing with fire and the euro could hyperinflate. I don’t think the USD will

>>51594902
Is this bullish for my linkies?

>>51594812
Potential nuclear war and rebalancing of major power territories, Russia taking the Baltics and China taking Taiwan, along with collapse of Western European economy and industry, Chinese real estate implosion knocking down the rest of the world etc. All leads to a global consensus great reset using a new hyper centralized digital currency.


Maybe

>>51594919
In the next 3-4 years? Absolutely not. After that, who the fuck knows

>>51592812
>generally variable is quite a bit cheaper in the long-run
it's cheaper because you take on the risk of this shit happening that's happening now
>Now I'm at 4.2, my mortgage is only 200k tho
You realize how it works right? Pay it off ASAP or it is going to grow at speeds you cannot keep up with

>>51592812
>long term data from an unprecedented 40-year era of lower rates which came to an end in 2022 after 40-year inflation highs
You are so fucked. Just sell your house now.

>>51592123
>I bought a house last year on variable mortgage. Am I fucked?

TOLD YOU FAGGOTS WE'RE GOING BACK DOWN AFTER LUNCH. WHY DON'T YOU EVER LISTEN TO ME.

>>51594812
If you live in the US just make sure you dont lose your job and you will be fine even though you will get poorer on paper. Use your income to accumulate risk assets when things are looking very bleak. If you live in the EU, UK or Canada, yeah you're probably done

>>51595068
>bought house in march
>contacted realtor in april and asked if she could contact other bidders and see if they were still interested
>they took over my bag for 1% less than i paid
>houses in the same area dropped around 12% since then
Wew, that was a close one

>>51595312
If I'm currently in the on-boarding process and I have the choice between A) a federal job B) working for an American company or C) working for a Dutch company does it matter which one I take?

>>51595704
If it was me I would go with A. Job security goes down the shitter during recessions when every company enters survival mode and is looking to trim fat wherever they can, so that would be my highest priority. When things start to calm down and companies start hiring again you can jump back into the private sector. I would avoid option C like the plague

>>51595931
Fuck I was leaning towards C because it's actually interesting work.

>>51594928
You're exactly right. Hence why the CIA created crypto and the metaverse. We truly have no choice but to live in it or die fighting

>>51596536
You could take the risk but new hires are always the first ones to go on the chopping block along with people close to retirement age when layoffs start, and that is not a good situation to be in when both the private and public sector have started hiring freezes. I had friends with degrees out the ass and years of experience who had to take fast food and warehousing jobs after 2008 because there wasn't anything else for them

>>51591566
1 or 2 year only here. And don't all in. Fed is targeting 4.6% so arguably that is what the 1 year should reach and other larger periods giving a premium for longer lock up. That's all fine until we reach 4.6% and oops we need 10% to break inflation. Your bonds are rip and newly issued ones are god tier now.

For anons who want to build a new fixed income portfolio now be patient. Dip toes in but don't fomo. Fed needs to break inflation and will keep hiking to get there.

>>51592773
Recessions are way more comfy than bubbles. Everything's more real.

>>51592773
Just in time for the MW reboot

>>51592812
There's like a 3 year cap on fixed mortgage rates in Canada, you're fine. Only lost 2 years, rates might even come down by 2024.

>>51596590
>or die fighting
I accept

>>51594928
Good take, I just fail to see the US army being passive in this