/biz/ - Business & Finance

Reuters is saying that if the S&P stays below 1900 it is probable it will continue to do so.

Short the spyder

the end is nigh

>>514960

Yep. Been short the market since last tuesday.

Commodities still on their ass tho.

>>514960

down -223 now

Crash is coming

>>514960
>worrying intensifies
At least Bitcoin is on the move

This is why I hold some boring bond funds. Sold 20% of my bond ETF (BND) and bought SPY at the close.

>>514960
>less than 2 change
this is completely normal

Just wait for the bounce.

>>514960
all this means is its time to buy

>>514977
I'm kinda skeptical about getting into bonds right now. I keep hearing talk about the Fed thinking about raising rates.

But if the market keeps doing this rates will probably won't go up for a long time.

>>514997

the fake inflation is at 2%, putting bond yields into the negative. Only a fucking moron would buy bonds, it's 100% guaranteed loss.

>>514997
I only hold those bonds as a hedge. I don't actually want to hold any of them until maturity.

>YFW THE BEARS WIN THE SUPER BOWL
>LOL
VIX SPIKING $$$$$$$$$$$$$$UVXY

ayy lmao

I'm thinking this is all on ebola fears. Look at $LAKE for example. They make safety suits for dealing with this shit. Glad I didn't try to short it the other day.

>>515003

All I want is a relatively safe place to put some money and get a relatively safe yet modest return. Trouble is bonds are crap, CDs are crap, gold has been dropping steadily and I put bitcoin on the same level as the dogecoin.

>>515032

There is no "safe" place for a dollar that's going to shit other than metals and other commodities.

>>515038
>metals
>safe
Only if you buy after they're done coming out of their bubble.

>>515021
>this is all on ebola fears

Crappy numbers from Japan, then Germany. Changes in US tax law meaning they have to pay tax rather than acquire foreign companies. Terrible auto numbers everywhere. Crappy Argentina, crappy Venezuela moaning about an OPEC reunion. Crappy Russia, crappy Ukraine still dribbling along.

It is just shit, shit, shit.

>>515050

Yeah, I'm thinking investors are starting to realize that nothing has really changed since 2008. I'm just wondering if this'll bottom out soon or is it time to invest in canned goods and shotguns.

>>515072
Overpriced equities everywhere and emerging markets which are actually going into hiding...you are maybe better off in bonds and cash, waiting patiently.

>>515072
But QE was supposed to fix all this

>>514960
Yeah. The market moves up. The market moves down. You need to not worry about a day, a week, or a month. Worry about years.

those are some ugly icons

>>515178

Still, its kinda unnerving to watch as all the gains of 2014 are erased in one week.

>515082

Equities, at least in the US, are not Overpriced. The P/E ratios are still extremely low.

Stock manipulators managed to crash the stock market again today. Don't think they have much steam left. We close the month over 17k and the year over 18k IMO.

>>515182

It's heavily manipulated. Time to buy. If I had any cash left, I would have bought today at closing.

I think we get one more crashing day, and then up, up, up. Calling a bottom 16,150-16,200

>>515188
>up, up, up
not without fed help
and that is off the table right now

>>515194

I don't think fed help is off the table, even with QE "easing." They made it clear they would delay rate rises due to slow growth, and I believe in that 2.9trillion plan in EU.

IMO economy is doing just fine.

>>515194
It doesn't need Fed help. Everyone has been expecting this for some time and are just waiting to buy.

>>515195
>good economy = more stimulus
just no.

>>515197
This was the last month the stock market got easy money. Now they want to see if it can get along without it. It can't and they will have to intervene but only after it has caused some pain.

>>515201

EU has been having a shit economy for the last 5 years. There is nothing new in today's events. This is just stock manipulation at its finest

>>515204
>the fed is no longer giving out free candy to stocks
>nothing new
pick one anon.

The EU stimulus can't help you till 2015.

>>514960
You guys forget that holiday season is coming soon. Any small drop now is just going to be a bigger rise in December.

>>514960
Buy PND

Short PRAN

>>515221
Cause retail has been doing great this whole year.

If this technical break, when having a bounce, finds the previous moving lines as resistance. You should then be aware that this can become more of a correction and run into the bear market situation where we can downtrend for 1-2 years (on average) rather than just the simple talk of a 'shakeout or correction 5-10%'

This will take a few months to play out before showing if it will go bear, or if will will continue on the bull path to something around 23,000 dow jones average. Also causing nasdaq to break into ATH with SPX following along as well.

Also one has to be aware the next major crisis will be a situation again where they try for a one world currency. Owning fiat will only get you fucked when it happens. Until then walk the razors edge of the speculation profit. It's all one can do. But they can and will and have before, wipe out savings overnight. This would be accomplished with a currency reset either on a global or country scale.

Bear market confirmation will have Dow Jones testing 9,000 or lower, but would take awhile to play out.

As so it becomes clear the bull and bear is only separated by their pace of movement through the time scale. The bear moves faster. However, the bear and bull are the inverse image of the same goal. What you are simply doing is playing the oversold and overbought situations to the trend line on the time scale.

Good luck anons

>>515352
I don't think there will be a one world currency just yet. I would be on the lookout for asset-backed currencies.

>>515359
just saying, they want it. they being the elite. the rothschild. they openly declare it. too lazy to link the videos. they say shit like the global consciousness still opposes a one world government/currency. yeah well no shit they always will stop looking for the snake moment to slide it in.

i kinda get lost in rants but the point on that aspect i was trying to say was that physical metals will withstand the exchange rate changes better than any fiat. some fiat might be lucky to get 10 cents on the dollar, while americans might get 50 cents. Maybe this is what it would ultimately take to end the fed. It's only a matter of time, as they say history repeats itself and the true name of the federal reserve is the 3rd bank of america. The smart ones of us know how the first two ended.

>>515359
>lookout for asset-backed currencies.
this didn't work out well for Libya and Iraq. After all this is what america finally broke away from in 1971, their end game of enslavement through inflation. So why would 'they' being the ones who are in control of the system of cash let anyone roll in easily. Their will be friction as their is already friction to russia as they are trying for a gold backed currency with china.
America was gold and silver once, and we must get back. One can always look to NatSoc prewar germany for any prof a system can run without a usury banks overshadowing every working mans wallet.

>>515392
The question is, what do BRICS want? On one hand, I've heard Putin told Rothschild to fuck off. On the other hand the international oligarchs appear to be pretty entrenched in China.

I've heard from multiple sources that BRICS are working on a new asset backed currency system. Anyone paying attention knows that the East has been buying up all the gold. There will come a day when the BRICS announce their new AB-Currency and the rest of the world will follow, backing their currencies.

If you put any weight in the opinion of Jim Willie, (personally he vibes with what I'm hearing from other sources) he has stated, this past week, that there will be a new US currency, called the TRN or Treasury Note. He says it will be "blood red" which I believe refers to the red US Treasury Stamp on the note like those on US Silver Notes (showing the note to be asset backed). He continues saying the new TRN will have two rounds of devaluation, 30% each time.

mfw invested for the first time in an S&P index fund at 2000 a couple weeks ago and this is making me nervous.

>>515400
America will have no choice. To continue, in the words of Jim Willie (again I'm hearing the same thing from other sources), China will someday soon via the Shanghai Gold Exchange (which less than a month ago launched it's executive gold pricing board) announce that they believe the actual equilibrium price of gold is 2x maybe 3x more than it is today. London will call bullshit, but China can stand firm and say if you don't like it okay, you can continue to keep the price down and bring the gold over here and profit from arbitrage. But the world will see that there isn't any gold left in the west, and naturally should have no say in determining it's value. I think it's no secret that there is TONS and TONS more paper gold than there is physical gold. This paper gold is what is used by London to set the price of gold.

Anyways once the new price of gold is set, China can then announce that the new BRICS development bank is actually their new Central Bank and they have a new Gold-Backed Currency. If you wanna trade internationally you're gonna need an asset backed currency to play.

>>515406
Yeah i'm not sure I can trust russia because KGB past history. Meanwhile china is basically always been fucked through history by everyone so they are protectionists and by default you can almost expect to trust them more than other wildcards like russia/israel. however because of their past they will not be an ally. We know they hack us, We know they trade war and currency war. Yet they still buy our Tnotes. Just enough nukes and just enough lead in the products they export. They don't use it so you see them abuse these tactics. I imagine the real action starts when we have the ability to claim planets and other space objects as assets. Humans will most likely destroy themselves but since our lifetime expectancy is so small we can have good odds it won't be in our lifetime.

I also wonder if this is a simulation why they are bothering to run it as a horror of our survival past rather than awaken our past self replicated self's to just be aware of their mistakes, and seeing how the simulation would play out with extra knowledge. Surely they are running those simulations but since its almost certain to be a complex large number of simulations we just got the unlucky past of 100% survivor with no divine interventions.

>>515409
if you see it find the 200dma as resistance you'll want to be ready to sell. Bear markets are real. At least you'll have the chance of the indicators showing up technically over a few months to indicate to you that you should get out.

>>515410
makes me remember germany wanting their gold back. and ofcourse zionists occupied america says eat it
fucking kikes

>>515410
also, the only part i dont agree with this is that the IMF sold gold to china and india this whole way up. You have to recognize the fact that london and the IMF are also huge gold holders and the SPY bullshit also. It is a very real possibility that gold can go back to 500-600$ range within the next 10 years. IMF is not stupid after all. They basically run the gold game.

Unfortunately us as peons can only watch the game unfold and try to place our small pieces as best possible. Maybe one day elon will alow us to sell our shekels and escape to mars. At least then we could have adventure outside of construct.

eh, w/e, I'll just put the rest of my life savings in, if it bounces great, if it drops more I'll just shoot myself.

>>515434

What are you fucking stupid or just a shilling shlomo. You sound like you have no plan ever to have any clue when to sell.

Yes yes good goy just keep throwing in your cash till you are old. Then you'll be rich!

Don't shit up this awesome thread with your weak trading mentality. Pathetic. Just shoot yourself now.

>>514976
>He bought GMO

>>515434
>>515437

Stupid people are going to do stupid things.

>>515439
I bet he sucked wipes cock too.

>>515440
fair enough, let me buy you a beer.

>>515439
Back a few months ago when I cared and biz was new. I told everyone in wipes constant spam threads. Especially on june 19th and 20th to sell. If they didn't sell they would become a bagholder. But they are all clueless and a fool and their money.

Now I can only laugh. I've not checked the chart in a few weeks, Thanks for pointing it out. People always learn the hard way in the markets. It's the only way to learn.

>>515437
>just keep throwing in your cash till you are old

That's the plan.

Or what if it goes up to 2300 by next year?

I'd say I'm just taking a 50/50 bet either way.

>>515445
>2300 by next year?
then what, or do you think you are a wizard and will be able to sell market tops.

>>515445
you might as well get into fixed income markets you pussy.
Cash can not make profit if it is not actively invested. You need to learn to trade the trend lines. Or go play in the bond market with the old men.

>>515449

no. then I just put more money in. Same if it crashed. Over time it probably averages out the same as if I tried to sell the trends with a 50% success rate.

>>515457
>Over time it probably averages out the same as if I tried to sell the trends with a 50% success rate.
No. You do not understand how to trade the trend or how to trade at all. You wont even understand the most basic of trade strategy. You can't assume your buy buy buy forever strategy would work against your makebelieve 50% trade trade dream. If you tried to trade you'd lose all your cash, So I guess having SOME at the end of your shit worthless ride is better than NOTHING. Goodluck TOOL.

>>515352
>>515359
>>515392
>>515400
>>515406
>>515410
>>515412
>>515414
>>515418
>>515421
>>515437

>>>/zerohedge/
>>>/pol/
>>>/out/

>>515463
you do understand the only reason biz existed was because /pol/ and crypto.

>>515464

Doesn't mean we have to tolerate morons like you talking about the Rothschilds and FED!11!!1! conspiracies to keep the price of gold down and how it's about to shoot up 10x.

>>515470
So did you even read my post about the IMF and gold going back to 500-600? or did you just group all mine together because you saw rothschild.

you jews are so easy to see. go cry in another thread you blood sucking kike.

>>515470
>talking about the FED!
Yes how dare we object to the Jew overlord.

A lot of stupid paranoid morons in this thread.

Guess I now know where conspiracy-tards hang out.

I wish I had more money to buy more stocks.

>>515480
>I wish I had more money to buy more stocks.
hahahah

same fag kike learned how to post with his phone.

>>515480
>A lot of stupid paranoid morons in this thread.
get the fuck out then you broke delusional kid.

>>515480
>I wish I had more money to buy more stocks.
Sucks for you.

>>515480
>paranoid

>>515491

>>515392

Honestly your best bet is to start setting yourself up as a warlord/landowner. Instead of investing in fiat or metal, invest in land and loyal followers.

>>515491
>>515492

>>515491
just to add some conspiracy. the last bear bottom on sp500 was 666.

>>515491
>>515492
>>515495

>>514976
What app/program is this?

>>515501
Super trader elite 5000

>>515492
>>515495
>>515499

>monetary base
>fed reserves

You're an idiot and those don't matter.

The only relevant "money stock" statistic with any predictive power is MZM (money at zero maturity, or all money that can be liquid in under 24 hours). A cursory examination will note it is growing at exactly the same rate as it was prior to 2007, and its velocity predicts a inflation rate of around 1%, which is SHOCKINGLY exactly what we're having, versus all those faggots predicting triple-digit inflation with the MB.

>>514960
Why would someone put such broad shit on their phone? No way you invest in all of that.

>>515515

Not to mention the fact that the four on the left are all basically the same thing- their correllation is >= 95%, plus gold and silver are highly correlated.

I have the S&P, Nikkei, gold, 30-year UST, and VIX on my phone. It's a pretty useful summary.

>>515521
>Nikkei
This I expect of a 4chan investor.

>>515523

It's the last fairly-valued market on the planet, Anon. If Abe manages to get Japan's shit in order, it's headed to 25k+.

I bought it in the form of NKD futures, too, so any yen depreciation or inflation has no impact on me.

>>515485

I have 550k in the stock market, so fuck off

>>515409

look at the dumb money here

>>515409

No worries. SP will finish at 2100, so youll make 5% in a year

ITT: Low tier kikes

>>515526
That's really optimistic. The last time the Nikkei was at 25k was 1991.

>>515557

The Nikkei is a yen-denominated price return index. Given their deflation, dividends, and yen appreciation over the past two decades, an investor in 1989 would have broken even three times already- once in 1999, 2008, and 2013-now.

>>515566
Yeah, an investor in the equivalent of the S&P500 in October 1929 would have broken even with reinvested dividends on an inflation-adjusted basis a couple times before the 1955 nominal high as well. The problem is that the United States was a growing superpower.

I think Abe really messed up with that April tax increase. It killed momentum. The United States had massive WWII debt, but the debt-to-GDP ratio grew because the GDP went up faster than debt. He needs to somehow persuade old Japanese men in the Diet to pass those structural reforms.

>>515579
>debt-to-GDP ratio shrunk*
not grew

>>515579
>Yeah, an investor in the equivalent of the S&P500 in October 1929 would have broken even with reinvested dividends on an inflation-adjusted basis a couple times before the 1955

1933 and they never looked back, if I recall correctly.

>>515579
>I think Abe really messed up with that April tax increase

Yeah. Enormous unforced error, and apparently they're considering doing it again.

I think everybody knows that the only way out is to get inflation started again, but that's really fucking hard when your population is old and your economy is incredibly mature.

>>515579
>I think Abe really messed up with that April tax increase

he has no choice, without some extra source of revenue, the debt will just keep grow bigger and bigger

Where are the good buy and hold opportunities on this dip?

>>515582
1932 was the low. Once in 1937 right before the Roosevelt recession, and then it broke even for real in 1947.

They're going to raise it to 10% no question I think. Abe is just deciding between next year October or later. Unfortunately I think the Nikkei is headed to 10k before it might get higher given all the headwinds in Japan and globally.

>>515585
He should've really put it off though until a recovery was sustaining. It's like the premature tightening of the Roosevelt recession except Japan is going to get old as hell soon.

>>515590

Land, silver, and gunpowder

>>515590
It is 1987 all over again!

Tomorrow is going to make you remember that bulls climb stairs and bears fall out of windows!

>>515592

you realize 2015 is just like 1937 right?
1930 great depression, after 7 years, 1937 double dip depression, 2 years later WW2 begin
2008 great recession, after 7 years, 2015 double-dip recession

>>515592

This time the axis will be 3 nuclear powers, Russia, China and Iran. And this war will not be an all-out war, but more like a second cold war.

>>515603
>>515607
I expect a correction or the beginning of a bear market in 2015 myself, which is one of the reasons I think the Nikkei is going to go lower as well. But this current pullback might be an earlier start to that.

If an actual recession does happen in the United States, it'll probably be because Europe tanked. A cyclical recession regardless of whatever cause is fairly likely before 2017. Then again, it might be like 1987-92 as >>515599 said. If I recall, someone wrote a bestselling book around that time called "The Great Depression of 1990." Didn't work out for him. No one really cares about the early 90s recession nowadays except that it got Clinton in office.

>>515613

a crashing stock market can itself cause a recession, for example, in both 1929 and 2000, there was no macroeconomic indicator that signaled recession was coming when the stock market begins to fall

>>515618
Yeah, and 1987 shows it's not for certain. Everyone was scared as shit since Black Monday looked like 1929 all over again, but you would've really regretted it if you'd sold out then.

>>515460
Jesus chirst I even agree with you, but you're such a fucking faggot about this holy shit.

>Goodluck TOOL.
Die in a fire pls

>>515717
you're the one crying like a 'faggot'. crying about me putting someone in his place. I don't need your accolades or what you think. you TOOL

>>514960
I'm glad that silver is up. I bought at 17 +2.50 over spot. If it goes back above 20 I will make a tidy profit.

>tfw 2000 USD in the hole after being 900 in the Green
Kill me.

>>515731
The market kicked my ass this year. I'm down close to 3 percent which is over 3000 dollars in my 401k. Fuck China. Their shamefur dispray of non-growth shames their ancestors.

>>515734

Don't worry too much. You'll be at +2000 by the end of the year. This "crash" is a massive joke

>>515744

>Pulling random numbers outta his ass the post.

>>515521
>>515515
>>515506
>>515501

No but seriously what do you guys use to get this shit on your phone? Specifically.

>>516111
cnbc app

>>515463
>2014
>not reading zerohedge

>>516235

>201x
>losing your money being long gold and short Treasuries and stocks
>listening to zerohedge

>>516244
>losing your money being long gold
ha..haha...hahahahaAHAHAHAAHAHAHA

>>516248

I clearly specified 201x, Anon, and that's a chart of 20xx. But go ahead thinking gold is a fantastic investment because it had a great run from 2000-2011.

Idiot

>>516111
Hint, it's not iOS since that pleb tier shit is incapable of doing any of this.

>>516244

> not shorting treasuries/ponzis

>>515767

Markets always recover from every crash, and most of the time quite quickly.

>>517264

Yes, that's true. But do anon's who are long have the intestinal fortitude to gut it out?

>>517261

> At the same time, we are relying on investors from all over the world to continue to
hold U.S. bonds. Every week, we roll-over approximately $100 billion in U.S. bills. If U.S.
bond holders decided that they wanted to be repaid rather than continuing to roll-over their
Treasury investments, we could unexpectedly dissipate our entire cash balance.

http://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/10-10-2013%20Final%20Written%20Testimony%20-%20Lew1.pdf

Sounds like a fucking excellent investment!

>>515359

the USD is the defacto world currency as is

>>516235
>zerohedge

>>515464

/biz/ exists because of /g/

So guys, what do we invest in during this little dip to MAXIMIZE FINANCIAL GAINS?

LAKE's already passed. Too many companies attempting to make an ebola vaccine all at the same time. Ebola's almost done, so what's going to change next?

>>517337
GM if you want to play conservatively

>>514960
Should've bought bitcoin

>>515494
Ruby ridge and Waco tells me that won't work out.

They'll just go 'eminent domain' on you.

Can someone tell me what this means?
---
A borrow fee is charged for each short position held in your account. The fee is calculated by applying a borrow rate to the market value of the position for the duration it remains open. The minimum annual borrow rate is 2.5% and in extremely rare cases it can be as high as its market value. Typically, Virtual Brokers borrow rates range between 2.5% and 8.0%. Market Value is determined using the greater of $3 per share or share price and is subject to a minimum value of $25,000 per short position (denominated in the currency of the account in which the position is held).
---
So let's say the borrow fee is 3.5%. I would divide that by 365 to get my daily interest cost on my short position yes? Do I need $25000 in the short position itself, or just $25000 in my account to be eligible to short?

Thanks for any help. Been trading this year so far but it's been bullish never had the incentive to short. If I can't figure out what this means I'll just buy a fund that's against the market through futures or something

>>517337
Cash is a position too.

Yes, we're in a correction, but it's the first significant one we've had since 2008. (maybe 2011 if you count the correction that came out of the first round of self-inflicted debt ceiling bullshit.) Welcome to the markets. Enjoy the ride. The ride never ends.

A mutual fund manager is obliged to stick by whatever his prospectus says, and if that means he remains 100% invested in oil stocks as the price of oil drops, or airlines as an Ebola scare freaks the world out, well, it sucks to be him.

But we are not (most of us anyways) fund managers. If the risk is to deflation and not inflation, what's wrong with sitting on 80-90-100% cash position while the correction burns itself out?

>>515717
eat shit you piece of dung

>>517384
>what's wrong with sitting on 80-90-100% cash position while the correction burns itself out?
Nothing.

>>517374
>Do I need $25000 in the short position itself, or just $25000 in my account to be eligible to short?
You need 25,000 for day trader status.
For shorting, you just need to fill out some extra paperwork and send it/email it in to your broker to get short ability.
You can short with 500$ if you want as long as your account is authorized.

>mfw went long on VIX & gold a month ago

Feels good man. Going to feel a lot better with every passing day too

>>517391
Why'd you delete your other reply?

You sound like your FROM a third world shit hole, or OLDER than 50. Anyway goodluck BITCH NIGGA.

>>517384
Okay, cool, because that's what I was thinking. I sold one of my longs today, got the cash back, then moved some more in there to monitor.

I did put a limit order on about $1000 towards VTI in case it hits $90, so we'll see how that ends up.

Yesterday I sold everything I had to get a house.
Gold went up a lot and the Canadian dollar dropped a lot.
I have a lot of american money. So I'm going to convert that back to Canadian. I still won't have enough though. Would selling my 6 ounces of gold and 20 ounces in sliver be good to do now? Or wait a few more days.
I need the money by Saturday.

>>517406
what other reply, that is my first reply of this day.

you sound like you are a piece of shit with no clue. anyways luck doesn't exist, nigger bitch.

>>517343
>GM if you want to play conservatively

>>517464
>you sound like you are a piece of shit with no clue.
Stop taking the internet so seriously

>>517466
>implying market downturns isn't the best time to acquire blue chip stock for long term investment

Like, that's just your opinion man.

Im in $SVXY at $58.94.

I think I fucked myself

>>517264
The Nikkei took 20 years to bottom out, assuming it has, and is still down 50% from there.

>>517700

Deflation and dividends meant that investors actually broke even in real terms.

>>517702
Maybe but how was that performance vs. long bonds?

>>515032
>bitcoin on the same level as the dogecoin
ah..haha...AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHHAAHAHA

>>517485
>buying at the start of market downturns.

good goy

>>517736
Well they're both ponzi schemes.

>>517748
Thank you merchant you truly are my greatest ally