/biz/ - Business & Finance

Should I sell COIN sers? I'm 30% up.

how ridiculous will my TQQQ gains be from buying right now

JOE NO ONE WILL EVER STOP BUYING THE DIP IF I JUST TELL THE FED TO ALWAYS BUY THE DIP WITH PRINTED MONEY BIDEN

Nice healthy pullback so we can get the PRTY going again.

as a mere mortal, these big candles are too fast for me to trade today

>>51394025
I don't know what you're fucking snapping about. Every single signal that should precipitate a downward trend gets canceled out of nowhere by a mountain of commie bucks.

>>51394008
Redeem it

Hello Friends, welcome back to Monday! Hope it goes well. Here is your mid-morning, or mid-day market news:
>Freight Railroads plan to halt hazmat and sensitive cargo transport as they continue negotiations with two labor Unions. Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific are two of the companies involved, both are publicly traded
>Analysts have cut earnings growth estimates by the most since the the Q2 2020, companies are growing pessimistic about earnings
>Wells Fargo to pay $145 million to settle 401(k) plan probe that alleged the bank’s retirement plan overpaid for the company’s own stock from 2013 to 2018
>At least 500,000 people are kept from currently working due to being sick with Covid or Long-Covid
>Consumer inflation expectations ease in August
>Goldman Sachs plans round of layoffs scheduled to begin next week, expected to layoff 1-5% of workers
>FDA to controversially approve new Covid booster that has not undergone human trials
>Lawyers for former President Trump pressed a federal judge to allow an independent attorney to review all documents that were seized by the FBI, saying they do not trust the Justice Dept. to accurately represent what was in them

World:
>Russia withdraws more forces from Ukraine. but says it will press on until all their goals are achieved
>Ukraine will soon make a major new request for more weapons to conduct “long-term” offensive
>Germany announces they want to become Europe’s leading military force

>>51394008
I sold on Friday since I didn't want to hold over the weekend.. sell and rebuy @ 60. at least that's what I will do

There are bulls in this thread that think commodities pumping while inflation is over 8% is bullish. There are bulls in this thread that think going from 8.7% to 8.5% year over year is enough to ignore the fed and try yet another failed rally. Every time you guys do this the fed is just gonna QT harder and dump more bags on you. Literally sacrificing your $ to buy government debt like a good goy.

VIX up. But SPY up too. Hidden Tigers.

2022, the year the U.S. economy became a literal scam.

>>51394008
Sell a covered call

> maybe if I keep posting bobo images the sentiment algos will start a sell-off

Finally, a new thread where I can start anew from the bullshit I posted last thread.

>>51394063
haha you really got our number!1

Tomorrow, the pump will be meteoric if digits are acquired

Yields...

>>51394057
>Trust the vix
>This guy

>>51394050
Based newsanon

>Goldman Sachs plans round of layoffs scheduled to begin next week, expected to layoff 1-5% of workers
They're already forcing them back to the office. Why don't they just wait for the natural attrition of subway murders?

>>51394059
>2022
Try 1913

/smg/ in a nutshell

i have 5k usd.
what buy

>>51394092
Is that Victor Vix, CEO of VIX?

I didn't buy a tqqq position last drop it made because i thought the market would reverse red perhaps...

>Many such cases, SAD!

>>51394050
>earnings cuts
Beige book from the fed forecast marginal growth for YEARS lol. I wonder if 9 months of decreasing GDP will get perma bears to wake up at all...

>>51394008
I'm fucking mad. All that bullshit did was lose me money for like a month until I finally sold it last week. Then it just fucking jumps like that out of nowhere. I want a refund NOW.

>>51394111
I think he was in here Fri shilling his own interviews, he's some jewish euro cuck former market maker that actually has some good info in the few things I watched from him. He's likes to short the vix i guess so he's mr anti-vix

>>51394104
That’s something alright

>>51394140
No probably just the blatant af price manipulation will do it

>>51394050
>Wells Fargo to pay $145 million to settle 401(k) plan probe that alleged the bank’s retirement plan overpaid for the company’s own stock from 2013 to 2018
lol, fuck wagies

>>51394104
Thats pol not smg you faggot.

<This is smg

>>51394104
picrel was es em ge in a nutshell. I hate you fags

>>51394050
very cool, thank you fren.
>Verification not required.

>DXY in shambles, crumbling, strangled by an anaconda

>>51394008
MARA is down despite the Nasdaq being green. This means BTC is going down tomorrow.

I had a gold mining etf that was a little bit negative, and I closed when it went flat. Oh well.

>>51394104
thats pol dipshit

>>51394220
>thats pol dipshit

im down 5k this year somebody please give me something to make it all back

>>51394162
Remember when they got in trouble for making their wagies open up tons of fake accounts? Now they have been dumping bags on their wagies own 401ks.. truly the most crooked bank in America and that's saying alot

>>51394238
https://careers.mcdonalds.com/us

>>51394034
lets party

>>51394104
While I appreciate the effort, this is pretty cringe.

is the lunch time over for big boys and we are moving again?

>>51394238
>im down 5k this year

>>51394262
hopefully infinity stone bobo is right >>51394025

>>51394025
Stupid nigger bear

>>51394253
and people adore Warren Buffett for it. when you're rich, you can do anything.

>>51394150
Sorry Cathie, no refunds

>>51394261

>>51394262
seems like it was 45 mins today

>>51394156
not even a jannie and he still does it for free

I am going to continue shilling CMRX because I think it is going to do well.
Meanwhile I've noticed that the last few months, it seems to get a huge spike in volume and a weak daily high, usually around the end of the month. I'm gonna load up on more shares and then write calls in about 2-3 weeks

>>51394289
Remember when Warren buffet bought 75 million shares of Activision blizzard less than a month before they announced a Microsoft acquisition and it gapped up 30%? I remember l...

>>51394293
farming (you)s on an alt board is peak plebbit behavior anon. shame.

Pretty much this week is gonna make or break the market with the CPI/PPI and Quad Witching

>>51393897

I drew it my fucking self too. I will capture her divine beauty with my own skill, and express my love through art.

GET BUCK BROKEN JANNIE (AND BEARS, SHIT HITS THE FAN AT MIDTERMS NO EARLIER)

>>51394335
Quad witching usually fucks up everyone's shit, but everyone is in puts, so it's really going to fuck up everyone's shit.

Let me guess. "Wick tests" only tend to happen if the wick makes Biden look stupid.

>>51394368
I've had poor experience with opex and max pain. How do you even use it properly? There hasn't much much correlation between max pain and price movement, unless I'm doing it wrong, and even then, it just seems like a high volume day

>>51394388
Ain't hard to do, Jack.

is the cpi before market open tomorrow?????

If we nuke China the markets will go up.

currently my urpo is down -35% and soxl down -70%

im not selling.

>tfw holding tesla puts

>blatant fight at the daily top between the ppt algo and the "maybe the stock market isn't literally fraud against the public" algo.

>>51394406
>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Eat up,baby

>>51394426
>market going down helps the public

Carvana is up 35% in a week. -$2.45 earnings per share. 20% EPS miss. -7% net profit margin. -321M operating income.

I like when the feds printers just pump fucking everything. This market totally isn't fake or gay at all

>>51394452
Having a fake, uninvestable stock market does not actually help the public. No one is helped when they're expected to make decisions based on information that is just a bunch of lies.
But yeah, if you want to live in China so bad -- if that's what helps you feel like your 401k isn't based on a speculative bubble made of pure dogshit -- then I think you're likely to get your way, so congrats.

>>51394474
shut the fuck up retard

>>51394470
>missed two CVNA pumps
>analysts keep hyping this trash company up

>>51394431
ty. so one hour before open.

im thinkin of levied bobo pos..

>>51394368
Baggot post your portfolio, I need to see what your balance is now.

>>51394477
Oh well in that case never mind, anon! You're right, it's actually a good thing when our entire existence is dictated by incompetent powertripping spooks. My bad.

SPY needs to take its afternoon poopy and then nap

>>51394431
Cool so at 830 markets will pump

>>51394470
>>51394482
The way I view it is that if analysts are hyping it, they're trying to provide exit liquidity. Look at the volume and options pricing.

>>51394546
not likely

put/call ratios at lows now actually. everyone covered.

FUCK CARVANA


AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>51394495
I told you fucking faggots I'm not posting anymore screenshots until next fucking year now. Those fucking faggots who were giving me shit last week can be thanked for that.

I'm stocking up (pardon the pun) on goyslop royalty stocks, many of them pay monthly divvies 5-6% or higher, mmmmm delicious goyslop

>>51394592
Lol. You're getting raped by the short squeeze too? I'm down 25% on my short in the last few weeks but still up overall thank god

its fucking over

>>51394586
where do you check that info?

>>51394593
>giving me shit last week
just, last week ay?

Hi, guys, /cashgang/ here. Hows the market going so far?

>>51394559
Explain that chart to me. If I wanted to buy a bear put spread on CVNA with JAN 23 expiration, is that a good or bad idea?

>>51394606
IM DOWN FUCK

>>51394593
Fucking kek! Baggot btfo so bad he won't even post his folio

CNBC bros

how long until this guy replaces sleepy joe on squawk box?

>>51394254
where u think i got the money from

Remember when a bunch of sell volume would come in an occasionally it will trigger other people to also sell instead of just triggering the PPT to buy?
Man, those were the days. Back when people participated in the stock exchanges to try to make money instead of to force the public into slavery.

>>51394634
Puts on anything are a good idea right now. Puts on carvana are free money

>>51394634
Bad idea. You would be long vol and would likely get IV crushed on your long-put leg.
>>51394635
Are you shorting shares or using options? I sold CVNA shares at an average in the $100's so I'm chilling for now

>>51394593
But when are you posting more gookfu noods?

>>51394644
not the god of investing? not the infamous JOET? Whats the JOET ETF return compared to the market overall since inception?

spy just got rejected twice from its 200hma

>voo green
>qqq green
>/smg/ seething
All you have to do is long.
How many times do you have to lose money before you realize your outlook on the market is just plain wrong?

as a PRTY bro I also think CVNA is dog shit, but the biggest institutional investor of PRTY is also balls deep in CVNA

a true retard who might be so retarded that he just might be right

>>51394666
>>51394634

I bought 40p October 21 puts and sold 10p Oct 21 puts for CVNA just now.
This is while I am shorting straight up shares of CVNA. I think IV will be high for CVNA again soon

behoold the spy, kneel

>oil expensive
>electricity expensive/about to run out
where can I buy a car than runs on wood aka the car of the near future?

>>51394593
You had a fun outburst last Friday Baggie.

>>51394683
Oof, lower highs.

>>51394610
https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

although I didn't realize there are several different ones. index ratio is above 1, but overal equities are heavy on calls.

>>51394634
You can use the price of an ATM straddle to calculate what the market has priced in for price movements for a given expiry. This same straddle with a January expiration gives a range of $18.10 to $61.90, eg the market doesn't know whether it will move up or down, but it's expecting that much movement.

Like anon said >>51394669, volatility went up, contract prices are up too. Best plan right now is to do a calendar spread or some condor to take advantage of falling IV - provided you're correct and it doesn't get more volatile.

If you did want to do a bear put spread, picrel is probably the "safest" (but not guaranteed or most efficient)

>>51394699
Who is the biggest institutional investor in PRTY? It must be Baillie Gifford or Tiger Global or some bullshit. Also PRTY is a total shitco, it is just short squeezing. Playing short squeezes is a valid strategy, but its still going to end poorly since sooo many shorts have covered and the high price will be drawing a lot of sellers soon

>>51394731
>Who is the biggest institutional investor in PRTY?
If only there was a fast and easy way to check that information

>>51394724
thanks, bookmarked the link for future reference

>>51394685
>longing the top

Spy has rejected 411 like 7 times today. It's gonna be a fucking bloodbath the rest of the month

>>51394679
joe terranova and joe kernan are different people

>>51394731
PRTY is a shitco, but this is not a squeeze. Short interest was low until the recent run up.

>>51394713
See if Jay Leno's willing to part with one of his old cars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw2Tm9o6fiQ#t=7m14s

>>51394731
CAS Investment Partners.

I like him because he wrecked Ackman's HBL short, which is funny.

Buddy, look at Apple Computer.

No seriously what the fuck

putting my last wendys check on spy puts fuck all of u

>>51394753
are they really though? both goyim shills... albeit JOET seems to have more knowledge about the markets

>>51394725
TY. Great post.

made some quick oc. rate pls

$HOOD back to $38 EOY guaranteed

>>51394771
Period data is actually an incredibly valuable long term asset, and the market's only now realizing it.

>>51394669
Shorting shares
Down bad
Good for you

>>51394725
I am this anon >>51394669 and imo CVNA volatility could be underpriced on some contracts. I gambled and bought some bear put spreads for Oct 21. bought 40p and sold 10p. 10p has IV of like 200% so I sold it, 40p has 100% IV.

Thinking that IV will be lower than the actually realized volatility for CVNA since so much of this action is just technicals/factor nonsense. It will get sold hugely.
>>51394767
>>51394754
>>51394747
Cliff Sosin of CAS Investment Partners is a total dipshit who is down hugely like a lot of "degen" growth investors who went all in on meme stock squeezes like CVNA - companies that commit capex fraud and suck in general.

>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/carvana-s-woes-saddle-hedge-fund-cas-with-unprecedented-43-loss

^ link related on CAS Investments/Cliff Sosin. He's a total dipshit and he tries to play short squeezes but is down a gargantuan amount of money because you can't have a concentrated portfolio in meme stock squeezes. Fucking moron. I'm glad he's getting his comeuppance

>>51394780
kernan isn't there to sell you anything. he's there to shit on andrew. he's ok in my book

So what do you guys think? Will the markets ever be real again? Will the main participants go back to having a direct profit motive, or will stock exchanges forever serve the purpose of deterring peasants from any dreams of upward mobility from now on?

why don't decent pennies get shilled here anymore? remember the MVIS days?

>>51394716
I didn't fucking post that shit. Everyone of my posts since fucking Thursday has had the word fuck in it at least three times. I don't see a single fucking f-bomb in that wall of text. It was obviously written by someone else.

>>51394832
They’re both there to shill the mainstream narrative to you and get you to take your clot shots

>>51394788
not bad, arms are a little long

>>51394754
Also PRTY is a shitco and it has totally been a short squeeze. What planet do you live on?

Dude, anything with over like 5% short interest is considered highly shorted. PRTY at one point in August had like 15-20% short interest. Please do not compare everything with le GME 100%+ short interest meme. PRTY by all reasonable measures is a highly shorted meme stock shitco Microcap that was targeted by ShitFun managers like Ciff Sosin of CAS

>>51394716
Also, I don't fucking call them apes, I call them fucking niggers. 100% not my fucking posting style or nothing.

Imagine looking at greek letters and IV... Number go up, it's good enough for me

Oh cool, an obvious flush we can wonder at while PPT teaches everyone a lesson about getting too uppity without permission from neoliberal politicians.

>>51394851
yeah i botched it a little but didnt wanna spend too much on it. just wanted the joke out there

AEVA

>>51394716
Also, why is the fucking tripcode in bold letters like some fucking newfag just copy and pasted my name into the name box. It's like everybody already fucking knows what my tripcode is, you mother fuckers fell for a fucking psy-op.

made 12k today

only down 30k from my all time highs again

>>51394832
>kernan isn't there to sell you anything
other than the day's narrative as told to him by CNBC executives and the FED representatives like Cramer, Woppner, Eisen, Faber, aka anyone with one of those goofy noses (minus cramer must of had a good nose job). I've seen how the goyim employees ask for Jim's opinion like its gospel (because it is to them). But yea Joe K in the morning seems like an ok fella for a silly stupid goyim there to collect his wagie paycheck (probably a pretty decent size check). Also notice how none of those tv people consider themselves "rich". they only have $20 million. Rich is only nine figures + to them

Probably making economic performance depend on political need instead of the other way around is a totally save and democratic way of running a society. I personally can't foresee any obvious problems with letting commie faggots just spoof our entire reality, anyway.

>>51394823
he killed it on HOME (rode it from $1 to $37, was bought out) and was a buying PRTY sub dollar / dollar range, so it's not like he's completely retarded. I just think having such a small concentrated portfolio is ballsy and asking for trouble to the say the least.

>nasdaq up
>soxl crabbing
Mr David I need a word with you please

Yeah don't know about this rally though

>>51393995
What's going on with them trains

>>51394935
Unions finna get buck broken.

>>51394935
jesus if that boy bumps his head he'll bleed out gotdamn

>>51394954
Isn't Biden a fucking pro-union commie? What the fuck is he going to do other than fuck this shit up worse than it already is?

aeva is making a strong V

FUBO BROS WW@

Something aint right

>Through this Advance Notice, OCC is proposing to remove the $1 billion funding limit and increase the capacity of its Non-Bank Liquidity Facility to an amount to be determined by OCC's Board from time to time, based on OCC's liquidity needs at the time and a number of other factors. /18/ Instead of retaining the $1 billion funding limit for the Non-Bank Liquidity Facility program, OCC proposes to establish a target across all external liquidity resources of at least $3 billion, which is the current aggregate amount of external liquidity. /19/ OCC is not, as part of this Advance Notice, requiring its members or other market participants to provide additional or different collateral to OCC. Rather, the purpose of the proposal is to provide OCC with increased capacity for accessing cash to meet its payment obligations, including in the event that one of its members fails to meet its payment obligations to OCC.

green day

green week

green month

green life

>>51394927
The whole point of being a hedge fund manager like Cliff Sosin of CAS Investments is that you're supposed to be educated on things like Modern Portfolio Theory and Sharpe Ratios and how to minimize portfolio risk (aka volatility) by dispersing your portfolio weighting, etc. Its literally basic shit you learn in undergrad as an economics student and something that is critical for anyone managing a portfolio of securities.

The reason Cliff Sosin is constantly meme'd on by Wall Street neckbeards (on Twitter) is because he has the risk management of an alcoholic unemployed Stocktwits poster and blew a ton of money on ShitCo's. If you're going to play short squeezes on ShitCo's, he should at least hedge and construct his portfolio with weighting to help his Sharpe Ratio/max drawdowns

>>51394990
>THE SHEMITAH
>MUAHHHHAHAHAHA

>>51394983
yeah right after it hit my stop-loss

i think im going cash gang for a bit this market is untradeable

i dont know what to buy frens

>>51394760
pretty cool, but it runs on gasoline, not wood gas.

>>51395026
blue

Cliff Sosin is down 40% overall, mainly due to CVNA. Lol. And Tiger is down like 40% as well due to things like CVNA. Lol. Lmao. The Horsemen of the Shitcopocalypse

SPY 15 min chart has been trading above the 21 period mean for about a week straight now...

>>51395002
How good is sharpe ratio vs sortino ratio? I think it's worth splitting volatility into upside/downside so you can optimize risk exposure, no?

>>51394898
im down 50 bucks imaginary money

Ready for sour hour?

>>51394898
>made 12k today
on fkn what? its crab day

>>51395110
See>>51395006

God, I would seriously suck mad dick for a Payday bar right now
Or lose 300$ in funny money
I just want a King Size Payday Bar
Hell, I'll even go for a fun-size one too
God help me

ok guys i bought calls on tqqq hope it goes well :)

>>51395091
I prefer the Sortino ratio over the sharpe because Sharpe discounts good variance.

>I think it's worth splitting volatility into upside/downside so you can optimize risk exposure, no?
Yes, which is partly why I like the directionality Sortino offers versus Sharpe.

But if we're going to get really nitpicky and autistic and fedora-tippy about portfolio analytics/portfolio construction, I prefer a polynomial fit mean. So if you get an exponential portfolio you will still get a good sharpe/sortino. Not a lot of orders on the polynomial so you don't overfit of course.

Bayesian rolling sharpe is helpful as well.


If you can take the performance metrics with a grain of salt you can use them together a lot better, I think.

any good books in options risk management

>>51395026
I dunno, SPY is always a good accumulator. I got an email from a "not financial advice" source saying NFLX algorithmically looks like a good candidate for a run up.

>>51395117
Margin/spread maybe or maybe hes larpin

>>51395168
these pajeet tiktoks crack me up

>>51395180
kikeflix is fucked because they went woke, and now everybody is cancelling their fucking subscriptions and kikeflix is going to end up fucking broke

>>51395178

Some great books to read on options risk management. I really like Euan Sinclair. And we all know who Taleb is.

>Positional Option Trading - Euan Sinclair

>Option Trading - Euan Sinclair

>Volatility Trading - Euan Sinclair

>Dynamic Hedging - Nassim Taleb
>>51395203
They give me inspiration

>>51395222
Thank you, will sit down to read right now

So all of these retard-strong volume spikes... all of them are accompanied by the price going down. None of them are upwards. So are they all instances of big money short-selling a shitload of shares?

This and next week are crab weeks, then comes the pain

>>51395168
Well just in general, I've learned that RM is absolutely key to not blowing yourself up longterm, as well as position sizing.

For example, bonds yields; you can either long bonds (which I assume is where the 80/20 or 60/40 ratio came from), or short them to effectively get the risk-free borrow rate, which is then used on risk-on equities/assets. I'm not sure what environments to use either on, or if it's feasible to do so (eg I know you can't really short bonds as an individual poorfag, but you might be able to do repo contracts if you're higher net worth)

For as much as I understand about the mechanics, I just can't seem to materialize them into tangible gains.

>>51395280
You've been saying this for 2 years

>>51395280
why thank you for your input, niggerdamus, oracle of /smg/

>>51395002
I guess I view it as more entertaining than anything else. The guy has no sense of risk management to speak of, but I can't help but respect the utter degeneracy of it.

>>51394982
Unions are republican now. Democrats are the party of elites and homosexuals.

>>51395270
the algorithms are primed for max pain, news articles late last week saying mass puts 8x higher than 2008 of course led to 3 days of rally

>>51395252
Read "option trading" as an intro. "vol trading" for sell side. "positional trading" for buy side.

how are yall making money in this crabfest?
it's so hard intraday with everything either gaping up or down.

>>51395375
some real smug cunts were selling BBBY 60 calls, i still chuckle at that

>>51395289
What does RM mean?

>>51395375
They're talking retards on the internet into buying their options.

I am going to toss 10k @ NU
Just added 3k @ 5.47
Even though it has a 3 billion float, it has 25 mil volume on average and the chart looks much better than STNE
Party chads, nice consolidation day

>>51395339
>Unions are republican now
When the fuck did that happen? I thought Trump passed all that right to work shit so that people could give the unions the fucking finger, and tell them to fucking collectively bargain the fuck off?

Imagine investing in a shitty american chip company like Intel
Full of women and pajeets and faggots, all circlejerking each other instead of making actual useful products
One of the largest holdings of SOXL is motherfucking shitstock Intel
Now, imagine leveraging up on such a company because they are sure to have enormous profits forever
JUST IMAGINE

t. holding 600 shares

>>51395375
>look at premarket futures
>if green ape in on leveraged 2x bull SPX etf
>if red ape in on leveraged 2x bear SPY etf
>repeat every morning

>>51395375
short puts, short puts everywhere

>>51395344
Are my vix calls going to print?

>>51395404
Risk Management

>>51395404
Risk Management

>>51395425
>spy green premarket
>immediately dumps at open

>>51395433
When both the fucking stocks and vix are rising it means somebody is fucking wrong. I reckon them kike will correct this fucking market soon.

Oh God, pls drop to 405
I need my put to feed me while every store is literally out of payday bars

Tuesday will be glorious

>>51395289
Maybe you're not systematizing your trading/investing or something if you can't materialize them into tangible gains. Risk management won't give you alpha, it will just prevent you from blowing up.

>>51394866
Stupid people always overanalyze.

>>51395433
What broker allows VIX options, schwab doesnt and its cost me a lot of hypothetical money.

>>51395446
there is always the risk of jewish fuckery

>>51394238
I'm gonna pump this whore full of my coom

The SAVA. Look what They did this morning. It's just hilarious how people deny They exist.

>>51395494
fidelity
what vix options should i buy?

>>51395507
what's the proper jewish fuckery hedge?

>>51395411
I thought about NU but realized I don't really give a shit about Brazil and generally don't love following Buffet into trades. Maybe I change my mind.

>>51395423
my friend got a job at shitel as a 33yo who's job history was flipping burgers and he took a 3 month python course during summer

>>51395528
I don't care about any of that besides the line going up . The 3 month chart is a nice javelin

>>51395218
I feel you, but this reportedly is based on numbers and not about 4chan sentiment so take it up with the magic line research bots.

trade 1:

Capital One 2001 underwent litigation- implied probability distribution was approximately normal while the event itself was bimodal- this leads to tails being severely mispriced (either the company would go belly under or return back to where they were before the matter

trade 2:
(Brazilian interest rates)
6 Standard deviation difference between the current spot rate and the 6m forward rate (market was overly certain about the interest rate hike for speculative reasons)- structured a trade where he bought a put ITM via 6m rate and OTM via current spot rate

trade 3:
(correlation trade between the AUD and swiss franc)
after the financial crisis, there was a risk on risk off paradigm between the 2 pairs that wasnt exhibited before leading to severe yet very vulnearble correlation-- used a "worst of" exotic option to take advantage of the idiosyncratic risk market dynamics of Australia

trade 4:
(cheap sigma)
markets that are periodically trending smoothly in one direction often understate the long term volatility on the far expiration options- leads to a nice opportunity to look for idiosyncrasy to trade counter trend with options

Should I gamble on the shemitah? up or down?

just bought some friday sqqq 44 calls lads, therefore the market is guaranteed a healthy pump before then, you're welcome

>>51395579
SHIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET

>>51395029
Huh, I could've sworn he had one steamer that actually burnt wood but I could be wrong.

>>51394713
ive got an electric bike that I charge with a solar panel so Ill be able to die about 20 miles from my house instead of inside of it when shit goes down

>>51395579
Good. Crash it.

>>51395579
Rest in shit

>MASSIVE SPIKE DOWN
>crab back up
>MASSIVE SPIKE DOWN
>crab back up
>over and over
>it never leads to any downward trend

THE FUNCTION OF THE PUBLIC STOCK EXCHANGES THIS YEAR IS TO TRANSFER MONEY OUT OF YOUR POCKET BACK TO BANKS.

>>51394025
lol

>>51395489
Well right now, my notable stocks are WMT (60 shares), CMRX (1200 shares), and UUUU (500 shares), plus about $4000 in various resources (GUNR, WEAT, and shorting SPY). As far as options go, I'm down about $2000 this year, but made back maybe $600 on CCs.

I think I have a good basket for the next few months/years, but I always see people posting daily gains of like 2-10%, or trading an option based on flow and posting a 400% gain on Twitter. I don't necessarily want to day trade, but I'm happy to do a position for a few weeks at a time. I'm aware of volume, candles, and TA trends, as well (see >>51394319)

Where does one buy short term treasuries?

>>51395510
Sava will go to 900 dollars, 90 eoy

>>51394716
Hahah what a homo. Didn't that tripfaggot put a short on this current bull run? Fucking rekt

reminder that the bubble started in 2008

>>51395696
I can't really opine on this portfolio. But maybe you're not beta hedged against your WMT CMRX UUUU enough. Like not enough hedges against those individual stocks.

Idk. Maybe you need to go short more. Fuck don't listen to me about stock picking

>>51395723
Jesus, Reagan really did ramp up the glowie pensions.

>>51395433
All the vix has done is rise to match the future pricing of vix. Nothing really has happened though?

>>51394104
B+ for effort but I don't like it.

>>51394935
Daily reminder that if you don't "make it" by gambling in the financial markets, this is who your wife will be.

>>51395222
>Euan Sinclair
someone was shilling him here on Friday and i listened tosome stuff he has on youtube and some interview on soundcloud. Very informative but revealed his final form when he bashed fundamentalist christians and mulims in the same sentence while completely ignoring his own religion/ethnicity. Dude is so jewish he looks like the pokemon Fearow. But are his books worth picking up? I loved his bit about not using stop losses because you exit the trade when you are wrong, not because you have lost money. And if you exit because you lost money it means you sized your position improperly. Also good info on the market maker mechanics. I am reading Option Volatility and Pricing by Sheldon Natenberg and Options as a Strategic Investment by Larry McMillian. Both are great but I feel like they all contain the same info

>>51395717
I genuinely believe the second part
it's a scam company but when has that ever mattered

>>51395527
Bagels?

>>51395433
I... I don't know what that means. Shit's fucked? Rising VIX leads by indicating a future dump?

i have 5000 burger bucks.

what should i buy so i can swing trade in the short to mid term

>>51395433
There's a good precedent to inverse zero hedge anymore, see >>51395344

>>51395845
ibonds

>>51395375
>it's so hard intraday with everything either gaping up or down.
nigga get in the trenches and martingale those huge dildo candles stop being a pussy playing with defined risk "net" orders that take forever to get filled. Leave that for the losers who will pay a guy on the internet to teach them how to trade like the tastytrade doofs. Get in there and fight nigga. Put your dick beaters up

>>51395723
gdp is 24t not 2.4t.

>>51395707
You can just talk directly to Trevor Usury:
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tbills_glance.htm
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tnotes_glance.htm

>>51395804
Lmao im the dude who shilled Euan Sinclair last week . I'm not sure if he is Jewish actually lol. He's a New Zealander so I could care less.

Euan Sinclair's books are worth picking up. Read Read "option trading" as an intro. "vol trading" for sell side. "positional trading" for buy side.

"option volatility and pricing (natenberg)" is REALLY good too. Not as good as Sinclair tho Imo.

I found for beginners it’s better to read Sheldon Natenbergs book first to get the basics out the way, then Euan Sinclair’s books

>>51395861
It's indexed to 1970, not an absolute value, for some bizarre reason.

>>51395494
>What broker allows VIX options, schwab doesnt
I have gone long weekly and monthly VIX options on Schwab's streetsmart edge trading platform. Ticker is $VIX

>>51395819
Because of false allegations? lol you bought the FUD. True smgers were in SAVA under $2

>>51395510
SAVA is the most Jewish ticker I've ever traded. Next time my puts go green I'm out. I don't even care about how fraudulent their drug claims are anymore the kike movements in their stock price are infinitely more criminally corrupt

>be Jewish
>create scam biopharm company
>in Texas so no state tax
>issue very small number of shares and own most of them yourself
>claim you cured alzheimers
>steal tens if millions of dollars in government grants
>pump and dump your own shares 20% a day for months

The amount of corrupt bullshit SAVA does on a weekly basis rivals chink ipos

original BLUE nigger and CCXI shill here. Today is a good day to look into VRNA

funny how you can always see the exact moment I buy in a position on a chart

>>51395907
SAVA doesn't really have any Jews. Stop being AntiSemitic. Please. I love Israel. Also yeah puts are generally overpriced. I sell call spreads and have some OTM LEAPS I moved to 2024 like a retard

>>51395899
too late for sava?

>>51395741
Well in terms of macro, I think energy/resources are the way to go; WMT I just get cheap from work, and I recently opened the SPY for downside movements, so I'm in a decent spot if the market shits itself (and it seems that Oct 12th may be a target date, based on options pricing).
I've been stopping myself from fomo or doing stupid trades and making trades a bit more defensively (eg my UUUU looked like it was going to get called this friday so I BTC the contracts for a net $1 loss, so I don't get priced out). My biggest individual loss was a $5k position on CIDM that I didn't take profits on at $4 and lost $2400 last year. Oh well. I think I'm generally doing okay.

>>51395899
Lol.

Quad Witching is literally the only day that matters this week whether Big Money is going to short/long the market at the August top or June low

>>51395941
It crabs so try and see the monthly movements to get in where you think its cheaper, but they could announce something anytime, though I don't think you need to worry and fomo.

>>51395475

>Market pumping, bulls soi-facing
>TIPs bonds getting killed, when they'd be pumping if there was a pivot

Gee I wonder who is wrong. I wonder if it's the same retards who have started screaming about a "meltoooop u guys!" every 1% up day for the last six months as their portfolios erode steadily down to nothing.

What in the holy fuck would it actually take for today to close red? How many times does the market have to signal that it's ready for a turnaround before PPT starts feeling like enormous faggots? Is there any such thing as too conspicuous?

>>51396011
Look at vix,buddy

>>51396011
VIX. Lol.

Vomma stalkers.

>>51395879
I'll have to check his books out because I am particularly interested in his short volatility strategy and definitely seems to have some insight on some of the weird nuances of trading. More info than simply writing about what the greeks are. I'm about halfway through Natenberg's book which has been great for a new trader like me. The graphs about how time and volatility affect the greeks have been great to have

FAKE AND GAY
THIS MARKET IS FAKE AND GAY
I'M ALL IN ON PLASTIC SURGERY AND AIDS MEDS

>>51395924
stock market about to crap so idk mane

>>51396043
Natenberg's graph's are indeed god tier yes. Euan Sinclair also is amazing.

I know a guy who worked at a prop fund who specifically recommended reading Sheldon Natenbergs + Euan Sinclairs books.

I think contract rollover is why SPX and VIX are correlating so strangely (should be negative corr, is pos corr today)

>>51395864
Looks like I can buy them through schwab too. Is the deal better if I go straight through Treasurydirect?

Tuesday

>>51396021
The dump this week is going to be so epic

>>51396119
Vix futures havent hardly moved.

>>51396127
>>51396133
Buy signal- im all in TQQQ

>>51396123
It's the same deal. Schwab probably more convenient.

>>51395899
Lol I don't really care if they are true or not, I buy breakouts but I feel this company just isn't the play, too much overnight risk

>>51396133
>>51396127
>>51396072
Lower than september 6th?

How will CPI effect this price of OIL??

>>51396151
I think that mean's its time to short VIX. Unless VX futes catch up to VIX then it's time to short SPX.

>>51396097
I will have to dive into Euan's books after I'm done with Sheldon. Thanks for the info anon who is definitely not Euan himself... godspeed

>>51396006
Pretty sure you shouldn't look at TIPS for anything because the Fed owns like a third of that market. So you're looking at a derivative of QT rather than a genuine inflation forecast.

>>51396123
No clue. I'd go with my own broker for sheer convenience because it's probably a negligible difference.

>>51396151
Vix has pumped like 6% today even though SPY is up 1%...

>>51396169
Low CPI = Fed hiking expectations tempered = bullish for assets = higher oil = higher CPI next month.

REMEMBER EVERYONE
NO HEDGING ALLOWED IF YOU AREN'T A NATIONAL BANK
THE PUBLIC STOCK EXCHANGES ARE FOR IMPORTANT PEOPLE ONLY

Omae wa mou shindeiru

>>51396184
Not saying I know Euan personally but I have the ability to message him right now and bother him. not sure if he'd reply

>>51396196
My short call on my strangle is getting assraped by vega and gamma creep

>>51396218
>i'm losing therefore it's rigged

Uh, guys? The 10 year's doing that thing again.

>>51396239
yeah because I'm the only person who has noticed anything funny at all
great point fuckwad
hilarious meme

>>51393995
Migrate
>>51394988
>>51394988
>>51394988

Either SPX or VIX is bullshitting today, and I have a feeling its SPX that is bullshitting.

>AAPL up 4% today
>SPY up 1%
Lol red day tomorrow

>>51396270
eww

>>51396196
Vix futures which almost every vix product trades in is only up 1%
No one trades the spot vix

>>51395930
>funny how you can always see the exact moment I buy in a position on a chart
and now theyre specifically pushing it to hit my stop loss but Im ahead of them and put it even lower
can't be, wont be fooled again

>>51396279
It's called "blatant market manipulation."

>>51396270
Got me.
Party City turning green today?

>>51396292
meds

New

>>51396301
>>51396301

>>51396290
You never let the algos see your cards. Use alerts then make the trade then and there to cut.

>>51396234
So when he said he does some social science work he means he does shit for the tavistock institute that runs this website? That's my thoery anyway. Yes im a schizo. But in one of the interviews I watched with him he mentioned that he cuts losses early and also cuts his winners early and doesn't know how to let winners ride. That's me and that's why I don't play with options the way the pros do. I do not hold anything overnight other than a single OTM short strangle that I am adjusting to neutral weekly and will close out the position with a few weeks remaining.

>>51396256
Watch the 10 year people

bump, fuck the baker baking 20 posts early

>>51395723
this is not a bubble
Example: amazon sells oversea, profits are made oversea

>>51396342
I think he doesn't hold overnight either, I don't like his short term horizons

>>51396315
>Use alerts then make the trade then and there to cut
In this market I dont trust shit like that. Last week I lost a 100% gain because of a massive dildo while I was fumbling with the order. But yeah, you're right. They seem to watch my account specifically.

>>51396462
so i'm right about the tavistock institute thing then... here's my days gains... it isn't much but i did other shit most of the day so that realized gain is a nice hourly rate. Not bad for 2 hours of work in a small five figure account. I have been finding some success going long puts and calls that are slightly out of the money with around 11 to 14 days till expiration. Something that is maybe $500 per contract and has a greater than 50% chance of touching at the money in case i need to hold these things overnight which i really really dont like to do. Looking for my 1% - 3% return on anything i open intraday. Was a little nervous I was wrong on the 20 puts earlier but no way Jose

>>51396387
>>51396256
Normal market behavior in a rising interest rate environment.

bumo

test