/biz/ - Business & Finance

>he unironically thinks /biz/ is high IQ enough to understand pic related

>>51323334
and the alternative? just give up and wallow in mediocrity without giving it your all? confirmation bias is just an excuse midwits use to be lazy and detract from the successful

>>51323334
i unironically agree with the character.

>>51323334
well if you don't try you will never make it, that's guaranteed.

>>51323391
All the red dots are where planes came back with bullet holes, so they need to reinforce those parts.

>>51323334
Some people are meant to fail and not get rich
Those people believe shit like survivorship bias runs their lives. Others make things happen

>>51323391
planes that returned had the most hits there, but you needed to reinforce the other parts because those didn't make it
basic stuff bitch, just a reddit tier fun fact

>>51323391
That plane has chicken pox
Here’s a prescription for red pills

>>51323835
>just a reddit tier fun fact
That's exactly the low IQ interpretation I was expecting from you faggots
Implying there isn't a further insight into our psyche in the fact that almost everybody gets this question wrong when presented for the first time

>>51323391
I don't understand in the slightest how anyone would look at this pic and not see that the critical points are the middle of the wings and the part below the turret. Where the fuck is the "bias"? It's common sense that the parts that got shot off don't matter.

>>51323391
The plane is going through puberty, what you never had pimples when you were a teen?

>luck plays a massive role therefore you should not try
'no'

>>51323851
Only if you know that those are planes that returned safely and not planes that were shot down

>>51323391
Everyone is wrong
The answer is to paint little bullseyes over the parts that don’t matter and attract the shots to those sections only

>>51323334
Another great example of this is when these people who made it try to sell off their own personal style of running a business
Nearly 100% of the time it doesn't save the company and only exacerbates problems that were causing it trouble in the first place
Another example is something like Meta™
Do you honestly think that faggot is a genius social media expert, or just was in the right place at the right time and is now failing miserably as soon as he steps out of that niche he's already carved for himself

>>51323391
do the red bumps itch?

>>51323845
oh wow human brains be wild yo
really makes you think

>>51323929
>really makes you think
not you, clearly

>>51323391
Those are statistically the best places to put speed holes

>>51323922
Zuck had contacts with Stanford research institute and intelligence agencies
That’s how Facebook won

>>51323934
do you also ponder about the cum that you shoot from stroking your micro penis?

>>51323886
Well that's not exactly a bias then. The bias is supposedly based on when you tell people these are the planes that got back. If planes were flying back safely with their wings clipped off at the ends clearly those tips weren't that important.

Guarantee this shit was produced by someone that never even tried. It's true that luck can fuck you financially just like you can get cancer at 25yo shit happens but to compare financial success to a lottery ticket is beyond coping

>>51323334
niggas who bitch and moan about "muh survivorship bias" are completely misinterpreting was those succesful people are trying to get at--they're not saying "you can be just as rich and famous as me" (and if they are, they are trying to scam you) but they're trying to motivate people to at least TRY because if you aim for the highest peak the likelihood of you getting to the second or third highest despite failing to get to the absolute top is very good. I say this as the anon who started this thread: >>51317308.

>>51323334
Most people in regular countries find themselves in positions they hate because they are watching Netflix and scrolling their phones while blaming others for their failures

>>51324241
How do I break free

>>51323858
Best post itt

>>51323815
wrong fucking retard, you reinforce the parts not hit because it survived being hit in the red

>>51323334
if one stops being a lazy bitch, then yes they will do better for themselves

>>51323391
>put the fuel tanks in the areas not riddled with bullet holes

>>51324486
>sincerely falling for the troll
You asberger fags should be auto banned from this website

>>51323706
Confirmation bias is just copium midwits are addicted to to make themselves believe that any non-connected (((person))) will be allowed to get rich ever again.

success is partly luck, but only those coping hard think luck is even the majority cause.
africans existed for tens of thousands of years before humans left, evolved, and built society.
if you don't have what it takes, it'll simply never happen.

>>51323815
average frog poster intelligence

>>51323334
> boo hoo victim mentality
stay beta faggot kikes : )

>>51323334
there is a difference between trying at your career and buying lottery tickets. It's also another thing to try to be the best and expecting to be the best

>>51323334
we had a thread about this yesterday and there was me and a few other anons explaining why success is mostly luck and a bunch of retards seething
they didnt even add any counter- or pro- arguments, just complaining

although they didnt post wojaks so at least there is some hope left for them

>>51325809
if it was mostly luck then there wouldn't be clear divides between wealthy and poor across races, countries throughout history and today.

>>51325830
because under capitalist systems it is about luck (except for old money which played a different game)
in the middle ages it would be luck and then politics that enhanced your wealth.
while under capitalism its more luck depended for "new" players because they cant control the circumstances that make a certain business, beyond certain obvious points.

you could say the old system was luck based too if you believe that politics is luck based, considering you cant account for your environments preferences, you may very well be cursed with unfortunate nobles and have no real chance of "making it"
like for example the russian nobles before the mongol invasions. even if you were the only non retarded noble you'd still be fucked eitherway because your peers have a crab mentality

>>51325830
>>51325863
I worded that very poorly so just take the general gist from it please. dont have time right now

>>51325896
the point is if luck was the primary differentiator distribution of success would look very different than it does today. capitalism and other systems have nothing to do with it, luck exists in all systems, only some let that luck translate into wealth, but all clearly need much more than luck to explain the patterns of wealth.

>>51325949
Luck is essentially what allows to someone to enter the position where they can use strategy (politics/intelligence) to further their wealth.
Basically the more wealth you have the less you are influenced by random factors.
At some arbitrary point we can draw the line and say that wealth after that amount is mostly based on factors they had control over, and not luck
The important thing is that such a line would be drawn at a massive amount of wealth

It's both, there are societal / natural rules that will make us more successful in a given context, and there are survivors that believe their story applies to everyone else.

It good to know the biases, but not everything is one. Just be wary of peoples trying to sell you their "ways".

>>51325995
connections aren't luck though. it's not luck that parents wants to give the best to their children and family first. going down that route makes literally everything luck, which is nonsensical.

>>51325995
That and genetics, some peoples are wired to thrive and have been in good environment to nurture them.

I'll argue that not everyone has freedom of choices, even with economical backup (eg. rich fucked up kids that parties and drug themselves to oblivion).

>>51323334
nigger

>>51326078
I get your point, and it is valid. But I can also see why someone would call connections luck, because if by some miracle you are born with decent wealth and great ambition+the skills/intelligence required to achieve it, yet you are surrounded by an environment of crabs with no reasonable way to escape, then you are still doomed.

>>51326082
it is a factor. Theres many cases of family businesses being ruined I recall reading about " rules" that it takes 3 generations to destroy a family company.
Yet when we look at Japan for example, they have many of the worlds longest running family-owned businesses, that have adapted to circumstances for centuries. Although they also do adoptions, which would be cheating in this sense.

>>51326121
its not luck to be born to successful parents, being born in india isn't bad luck, its the fault of your parents deciding to create a child in bad circumstances. you were never going to exist anywhere else, it's either that or nothing.

>>51326121
and the point is wealth had little importance in the two massive wealth creation waves over the last 2-3 decades. the .com/internet bubble wasn't driven by the wealthy but by those intelligent enough to understand it, same goes for bitcoin and the altcoin market.

>>51326164
and none of those have wealth that compares to old money
Thats why Bill gates is desperately trying to acquire assets to achieve old money status
IF he succeeds he would be one of the few new additions

Youre just isolating wealth creation to the stock market by the way. Thats easy to measure but its very poor for measuring actual wealth, especially when were talking about generational wealth and old money who generally dont even have to play the stock market game

>>51323334

>>51323334
cant win if you dont bet, sure its luck but winners perceived the opportunity and suffered the drawdown

>>51325716
>only those coping hard think luck is even the majority cause
there's actually no way to tell. as skills get more complex they become indistinguishable from random. by definition defying the odds is literally luck

>>51324486
i'll explain for your autism. By making a comment about repairing planes, anon was letting you know, with a wink, that they understood what was being referred to. But they got it deliberately the wrong way around, because that coupled with the wink is where the humor comes from.

>>51325949
>if luck was the primary differentiator distribution of success would look very different than it does today
>buffett
>gates
>jobs
is being born in certain places at certain times luck?

>>51326078
>connections aren't luck
well unless you are a bush or clinton, hell even ron paul's kid is a senator

>>51323815
the only anon who knows what he's doing itt

>>51323334
The Jews need to be lucky all the time. I only need to get lucky once.

>>51326164
>wealth had little importance in the two massive wealth creation waves over the last 2-3 decades
not even true, although it was the american middle class that succeeded greatly.
problem is you think american middle class in the 80s wasnt a measure of wealth

>>51323922
Right. I learned the hard way that having semi-famous ex-successful-founder investors (as opposed to normal VC money) is bizarrely somehow a negative signal for a startup, and I think it has to do with this.

>>51324072
I’m pretty sure the xkcd guy was some grad student that is now rich off of webcomic money.

>>51323922
>Meta™
meta is not a business anymore than facebook was, big tech is an arm of the deep state

>>51323815
apu posters are the highest iq on the board

>>51323334
Well that's easy, you just grab a big enough community that is constantly boasting about their gains (like the one QOM has) and confirm that the gains are not survivor's bias but actually the norm
Pretty fucking stupid thread op

>>51323858
this

>>51325830
thats just luck on a bigger cycle.
>throughout history
history is full of lucky shit and lucky single persons who changed everything down the line eg alexander the great and julius caesar. in antiquity norse and germanics lived in mud huts. china was over 1/2 the worlds gdp since forever.
if anything, the european enlightenment was the fluke

>>51323334
Do you have facts to back that up?

>>51324177
It's complete denial rather than misinterpreting. Because if they agree with the concept that trying to be successful is better than not trying, then it would mean they would need to accept the idea of personal responsibility, which losers refuse to acknowledge. It's much easier for these people to blame other people than themselves.

>>51327540
nobody who doesnt actually give a shit needs to justify it. complaints come from people who do care but cope for their failure. survivorship bias just means nobody knows how to get to the top, not that there arent people there

>>51323706
>>51325585
>just buy more tickets bro!!!

>>51326576
That is literally survivorship bias.
Literally.

>>51323334
Fixed

>>51326442
I’m at a startup right now where the main advisor/investor bought 7.5% of a company for $140k. You probably use this company’s products every day and it is now worth $24B or so.

I’ve worked with the guy he pretty much just throws money at ten companies and hopes it works. He has no valuable insight. He invests no time or effort in helping the company do anything. Just pure luck.

>>51323815
BASED

>>51323334
same is true about poker players

>wow this player won a big tournament
ye no shit someones gotta win

>wow this player is up after 5 years of playing
ye no shit someone has to be the luckiest by definition

>>51328356
of course i wont deny there is SOME skill to poker, basic shit like knowing which hands are good & not playing by emotion.

99% luck 1% skill

>>51328384
show me a graph of the most in profit poker player and i'll show you a random path graph for 50.5% odds

>>51328384
100% concentrated power of will

>>51328384
It's really more like 50/50. Luck is a big part but you can win purely through mind games too

>>51323858
>you should not try
He didn't say don't try, he said luck plays a bigger role than "trying hard" you fucking sperg.

>>51324177
Survivorship bias, survival bias or immortal time bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to incorrect conclusions.
Tard.

>>51324241
>while blaming others for their failures
Who did I blame? Who did OP blame? No one, he's clearly right in stating what he believes.

>>51323391
We have all seen the youtube video. You can stop showing off

>>51323391
This hypothetical pattern of damage of returning aircraft shows locations where they can sustain damage and still return home. If the aircraft was reinforced in the most commonly hit areas, this would be a result of survivorship bias because crucial data from fatally damaged planes was being ignored; those hit in other places presumably did not survive.
I hate you guys.

If I married my middle school girlfriend and had an available easy path to a stem degree instead of working my way through over a decade…
>I’d be telling these sniveling brats that all you need is some talent and hard work and an avocado allergy

>>51324486
>t. autistic fag desperate to prove hes smart to anonymous posters on a website

>>51323391
>survivorship bias
>high iq
>inspirational speeches are flack cannons
Theoretically inspirational speeches have value because a lot of people have poor mental or nerve problems
For instance when I am putting in tournament i shank it every time but in practice rounds im nailing the same puts
Ive found inspirational speeches to have a non-zero affect on my golf game

>>51323334
Some people win over and over

You deserve it.

>>51323706
>>51325585
Lowest IQ take.
If you're born without legs then no amount of "hard work" and "gumption" will make you a star athletic runner.
Jesus.

>>51325716
>success is partly luck, but only those coping hard
If you were born in war torn Afghanistan you wouldn't have nearly close to the opportunities you have as say a rich American.
It's fucking stupid you retards don't get this.

>>51323391
This plane took the faucci ouchie

It's a zoomer (((thoughtful))) (((art))). It's not remotely coherent enough to allow reasoning anywhere near it, let alone amass sufficient congruence to permit anything close to refutation.

>>51323391
This is utterly retarded. Planepox isn't transmissible if fuel is boostered and distance is kept during flight. You must've voted Trump.

>>51323911
>paint little bullseyes over the parts that don’t matter

>>51329976
That's LUNC paid ad.

>>51323391
That's retarded.
Red goes faster sure, but why only dots.
If you paint the whole plane red, it'll go like two times faster...

>>51329670
Your analogy sucks and you're a faggot. Keep being mediocre