/biz/ - Business & Finance

2014 for reference

>>51267024
retard

>>51267054
no. this would be extremely healthy. this entire run has been a result of fiscal stimulus, that is not an argument. the dates line up exactly. the only winners will be those who purchased almost immediately after the news, before the retail caught on. 9k is reasonable

>>51267024
>9k will arrive over the next couple months
wont happen that fast

>>51267101
arguments to be made either way, however weekly historical volatility is already very low. a move out of this range is coming within the next few weeks. if to the downside, it will be quick and painful

>>51267024
> talks about stimulus
>thinks when you stop stimulus price of goods go back to previous levels
>has zero understanding of inflation or basic macro economic principles.

NGMI. No we aren’t going back to 9k. Screencap this

>>51267024
Maybe if my gox coins get dumped or saylor sells but otherwise I can see us below 17k for long. BTC being a fixed supply asset isn't going to dump that hard after all the new accumulation these past few years.

>>51267024
Imagine typing all this bullshit kek

>>51267024
bretty gud prediction desu

>>51267024
Shut the fuck up, faggot

>>51267167
no, you're not considering the other factors in play other than stimulus. the stimulus wasnt in response to the markets, it was in response to nobody working. this means the economy is weaker than before, and the price of assets should return back to below pre stimulus levels. adjusted for inflation it would be slightly higher than pre stim levels, so 9k

>>51267203
theres no reason to assume this, given the money in these markets is now controlled by institutions. these players find it too risky to treat btc like something special, hence we see it underperform during times of economic uncertainty with high inflation: something its fundamentals do not agree with. 9k would be max pain for so many investors, liquidations, convinced btc is dead. it would be healthy

>>51267024
i dont really care about what you wrote but visually that chart makes sense to me

ok???

>>51267085
this will happen most likely congrats OP, but moon bois and ranbow chart fags refuse to see anything other than 100k btc eoy

>>51267383
the rainbow chart is adjusted to fit each cycle every cycle. its not useful unless you are proactive in adjusting it yourself for your own predicted bottom. assuming an overfit trend will continue in future its pitiful

>>51267319
This is all true. It's all overvalued and propped up by funny money.
Don't know why you dumb faggots can't see how plain it is, unless you bought in at 30k thinking it can't possibly go lower and then refused to sell thinking that Bobo was just trying to scare you talking about dropping below 20k.

>>51267024
>Weekly RSI at absolute bottom
>Anon think it going to dump more before scam pump

>>51267024
>Please don't buy right now.
Yep. This is the bottom.

>>51267432
RSI is a flawed indicator, however if you want to play that way, the rsi can stay at absolute bottom for weeks and weeks as dumping continues

>>51267319
>its fundamentals

>he doesnt know.

Should we tell him?

>>51267438
you can buy whenever you like it doesnt bother me. like i said, this market is run by institutions now. this is what you all cried for, now you have it.

>>51267444
btc shares the fundamentals of any asset which performs during times of inflation, like gold and property, however it is not digital gold or property and they do not share all fundamentals, just the few of importance when discussing inflation. i hate the btc maxis who compare btc to gold or property, its untrue. there are select fundamentals btc shares with the two, yes, but that is as far as the comparison goes

Actual good thread. This is how biz used to be.

Repped OP

>>51267024
honest question WHY do you think bullrun will resume end of 2023. what EVIDENCE and DATA supports this statement?

Remember to ZOOOOOOOOM OUT AND CHECK THE STOCH RSI

>>51267441
>Flawed indicator
Look at btc 10 Dec 2018, 09 March 2020, 04 July 2022. Everytime when RSI weekly reach bottom a relief bounce will always happen. You need scam pump before the dump to liquidate people so it can dump even more.

>>51267513
this is purely my estimation based off the length of previous cycles, the halving, experience from trading this ponzi for so long. I believe the end of 2023 gives the economy ample time to find an inflation peak, for monetary tightening to take full effect (1-2 years after implementation), and for most btc participants to either get bored or have their oshit rent is due tomorrow moment. This also gives ample time for a large stock market correction to take place and find its bottom.

Overall BTC has never changed. it still is the revolution to our definition of wealth and value the types of which we only see once in a millennium. there will be more cycles until btc is held on the balance sheet of almost every entity on earth which engages in the transfer of value in some way. this is the role it has. this is unchanged

>>51267355
(you)

>>51267536
i know more about how the rsi is calculated than you, and i know people close to me who are consistently wrong using the rsi in tradfi. i know the rsi is mathematically flawed, you likely do not.

the rsi does not determine when btc has bottomed, nor topped. it is a lagging indicator. you are justifying that it flawlessly predicts the future based on 3 data points.

>>51267513
Not him, but my dude, the halving is in 2024. Have you forgotten? This shit is going to take off like it never has. Every halving has been exponentially larger than the previous

>>51267573
thanks mateee

>>51267567
but if as you say (I think correctly) that monetary stimulus policy was the sole reason for bullrun of 2021, why still extrapolate potential lengths from previous cycles? In the absence of such extraordinary measures would we have seen a bullrun of such magnitude in the first place, just simply because of the "halving"? Im kind of skeptical given size of the asset class now....

Maybe I am not thinking clearly or explaining properly but interested in what you think.

>>51267586
im curious to see how many large players try to frontrun the halving this time. it seems too obvious but would likely result in massive volatility when leaving the bottom range. i expect far more people trading based off the fed next cycle given the number of clueless people who now have powells name in their mouth.

>>51267600
fiscal policy stimulus, and the cycles seem to play out regardless of macroeconomic events. at no point until this cycle could you dictate the health of the global economy by looking at the btc price, it just continues cycle after cycle.

If there was no fiscal stimulus btc may be around the same price today (?), after recovering from a lengthy bear market. the following bullrun would be huge as those accumulating through an unassisted pandemic, where many are unable to work or make ends meet, should expect to be rewarded for that risk immensely. this would align closer with the extended cycle theory which i think has some merit. unfortunately this is not what has played out, and we see the strangest double top in history

bump for quality thread.

>>51267604
I bought in my btc at $250 back in 2012 and have been hodling for thus moment. It will hit 100k this time and I will finally sell. My diamond hands will seal my future. Glad I waited.

>>51267678
best of luck to you. wagmi. no idea where the top will be next cycle but 160kish feels right. inevitably one btc will be worth more than the average property based on supply alone. leave at least one btc aside for your children/those close to you

It behaves like a call option on inflationary fed policy and if history has told us anything printing will continue sooner or later

>>51267703
Maybe I'll keep some, but I don't think so. I think 100k may be the highest we see btc go. I say this because after it falls from the halving, if it descends to the previous high (as I have observed in previous halvings) we are now approaching a price for 1 satoshi that is beyond the reach of the average wagie. 65k is too expensive, and wagies don't understand that you can buy crypto in fractional amounts and still reap the benefits (heck I had a buddy tell me he was trying to get into crypto so he asked his bank, and they said they had a crypto program where they buy it for you and trade it LOL).

I am hoping by that point we will finally be in a spot where crypto can be used as a primary form of spending money. If not by then, surely the stage will be set for it after a rally like that

>>51267721
the US economy relies on consistent stimulus, this is unchanged. the issue some level of stimulus is required to just meet standard levels of economic growth. the printer will return, however this doesnt suggest another period of growth like we have seen following march 2020, much more tame

>not pricing in the 2024 halving
>doesn't realise this cycle was manipulated by musk and institutional investors like ftx
your price targets are out of whack

>>51267024
I get peak CAPS LOCK anon vibes from this TA kek. Gonna counter play you

>>51268330
good luck with that. the bottom is not in yet. i hope you dont long a suckers rally to 28k if that happens

>>51267054
/thread

>>51269397
do you have a counter argument or are you just a retard. if youre bullish with no justification right now i pray for your wellbeing

>>51269449
Your "TA" is newfag levels of shit. It's embarassing. You don't even use indicators. All you did was copy and paste a fucking fractal. LOL
The ONLY reason I can imagine 9k is for the CME gap. That's if we make a lower low.

I bought a house and I bought wood and coal before price increases started.
No mortgage.
No energy bills.
No rent.

Im gonna make it.

>>51269449
lol you don't' even have an argument fuck off faggot

>>51269524
i dont use indicators, so its not technical analysis you nigger. this is based on fundamentals and more experience in the markets than yourself. oh theres a cme gap at 9k? cool, time to get filled

there will be the $17k within the next 2 month.
then further south, there is still the gap at $7k.
ukraine/tawain/best korea, new meme kung flu, nogger-pox, energy crisis evolving into a world wide recession, which WILL come for sure. i see $3k next year.
2024/2025 maybe a short relieve rally or 2030

>everyone and their mother is bearish as fck.

i see where this is going. this is 2017 all over again and BTC has already bottomed for it's first sell of.

bull run will resume soon and it'll peak triple top-100k'ish later this year just like in 2017 when btc had new ath

newfags and everyone who thought it will dip more will FOMO in and whole new generation of bagholders will be made.

>>51270089
if only that happened

>>51268038

I don't think we saw the printer results in btc price just yet. The fed printed more in the last 2 years than it has ever printed.

But i don't think this is priced in yet

>>51267319
you benchod, look at the chat its all baked into the TA

>>51267438
You can't call bottoms. this market will shock you. best to DCA and stake at the least. If you have got solid gems like vra, kcs, sylo, and cvp, when market comes around, you can change your laifu and waifu

CAPSLOCK ANON IS BACK?
BOTTOM IS IN

>>51269726
>fundamentals
>uses fractals
You're a fucking retard
I can't take you seriously

>>51267508
repped OP too, and your super useful reply as well.

>>51269794
No little buddy. It’s dropping to 1k, but the switch will flip and Xrp will become the standard and youll remain poor eating microwave dinners like ur doing now

Your dreaming op.
So all of the insiders, "smart money", and ecelebs sitting in stables right now will be able to buy near 10k, and then 5x/10x their already billion dollar net worths in the coming run? Does that story seem realistic to you.

>>51267584
>the rsi does not determine when btc has bottomed
why not?