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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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51235618 No.51235618 [Reply] [Original]

I hope you're getting ready to get into the housing market around 2024/25. The only place where you can still outmaneuvre normies is in the residencial housing market. So many people still FOMOd into houses way over a reasonable price in the spring when rates were clearly forecast to rise over the next year. The next couple years are gonna be a struggle for them to meet their mortgages, especially as property tax rises to reflect the pumped markets. I'm getting some cash ready to put down on a place in 3 or so years so I can pick up something nice at the bottom. Also, remember to tip your realtor ;)

>> No.51235714
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51235714

Almost wanna become a realtor just to flip houses and keep from having to pay them a outrageous commission just to post pics on mls and know what papers to sign.

Binging hgtv for inspiration

>> No.51235740

>>51235618
Wouldn’t high inflation mean their payments get easier to pay?

>> No.51235776

>>51235714
I'm in the military and used my past posting to buy, and flip a house with all purchase/closing costs payed for by the taxpayer. When I retire from the military, I'm planning on getting my realtor license for that exact purpose. I have no interest in actually being a realtor, just want the option to find amazing deals before they get to the actual market.

>>51235740
No, because the fed is determined to reduce inflation. It's doing this by increasing interest rates. All in, this will increase payments, while curbing inflation (variable rate mortagers get fucked).

>> No.51235785

>>51235740
That's exactly what cattle who fomoed at the top was thinking without considering fed might do something about inflation

>> No.51235811

>>51235740
Lol not when real wages are like -5%

>> No.51235813

>>51235785
>>51235740
Look up first, second, third order consequences. Most people trying to predict the future focus on first and maybe second order. If you want to actually have the edge, think of 3rd+.

>> No.51235817

>>51235618
im not going to be buying a house in the city where I live (swedenfag here) - can pick up a reasonable house now with no downpayment. I hear a lot about the housing market cooling off over here and dipping, especially outside of cities in the countryside. So maybe during the winter or some shit when people really are hurting I'll go check some places out.

>> No.51235901

>>51235817
Nice, I'm thinking of looking for a big plot of land outside of a major city here where I can buy like 40 acres and slowly develop it into a private runway.

>> No.51236750

>>51235618
>So many people still FOMOd into houses way over a reasonable price in the spring when rates were clearly forecast to rise over the next year.
Interest rates were at the lowest they've been in decades. Buying a home within one's budget with a 30 year fixed interest rate was actually a really good idea.

>The next couple years are gonna be a struggle for them to meet their mortgages
Not if their interest rate is fixed.
>property tax rises to reflect the pumped markets
Property taxes are based on the assessed value of the home. Home values and thus property taxes decrease as rates rise.

>I'm getting some cash ready to put down on a place in 3 or so years so I can pick up something nice at the bottom.
You're forgetting something very important - the supply of single-family residences has been constrained since the Great Recession and new housing starts aren't keeping up due to the cost of materials and supply chain issues:
>Housing starts in the United States tumbled 9.6 percent month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.446 million units in July of 2022, the lowest since February of 2021 and well below market expectations of 1.54 million. The housing sector has been cooling down amid soaring prices of materials and rising mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts sank 10.1 percent to 916 thousand, the lowest level since June 2020; and starts for units in buildings with five units or more slipped 10 percent to 514 thousand.

>Rising mortgage rates, high inflation, low existing inventory and elevated home prices contributed to housing affordability falling to its lowest point since the Great Recession in the second quarter of 2022.

So here's what's actually going to happen - you'll save your cash for a housing "bottom" that never comes. Interest rates skyrocket, which will cause the price of housing to plateau but not drop. You'll be paying the same price with sky-high rates.

You should have already bought.

>> No.51236761

>>51235618
yes

>> No.51236801

>>51235618
Get fucked faggot you chose to not play and you lost. I bought my home this year for 30% more than I could’ve paid year before, but now it’s up ANOTHER 50%.
Get fucked faggot, I could never ever afford apartment that I got if I only waited one month more faggot

>> No.51236887

>>51235901
Ive had this thought as well actually, but that was when I was thinking about moving to the USA a few years ago. Comfy.

Owning land in general is probably a great bet to make. Will be looking to buy about 200 some hectares moving forward after i get my house.

>> No.51236931

>>51236750
What about for us people that want to get another house? I have 2 houses, and want to buy a bigger house while keeping both. My rental already has over 1M equity so I’m not really worried about a downturn.

>> No.51237032

>>51236931
I'm not sure I understand what you're actually asking me. Whether or not you "should" buy another house depends more on your current income, your current mortgages, the rental rates in your area, the expenses of renting the properties including maintenance etc., how you want to spend your time, whether you're taking a loan or paying cash etc.

If you're asking about rates versus home values - home values will drop as rates rise but values will ultimately plateau and then rise again. Rates will rise for the foreseeable future. Volker had to let rates rise to 18% to tame inflation of 9.8%. We're at what - 2.5%? - for inflation of 8.6%.

So it really just depends on what your personal situation is and whether you specifically would benefit from cash upfront or lower interest rates.

>> No.51237061

>>51236887
Owning land is a losing proposition because you only benefit if the price of the land appreciates. If it doesn't appreciate you have to pay to:
>Develop the land
>Build the house
And while you wait you pay principal and interest for potentially years with no offsetting income.

>> No.51237075

>>51235618
>real estate gains
Wow. 25% gains over 3 years could even be achieved!

>> No.51237079

>>51235618
sure breh let me just pull 600K out of my ass

>> No.51237171

>>51237061
You farm it until someone wants to overpay to develop it retard city slicker.

>> No.51237307

>>51237171
Yeah? What are you going to farm?

>> No.51237339

>>51235813
I've gone straight to 5th order and am banking on the imminent collapse of humanity

>> No.51237347

>>51235618
>2023/2024

Try later this month.

>> No.51237531

>>51237032
I’m mostly concerned about when is a good time to buy price wise. Like I don’t want to buy and then have prices drop a lot. So that’s what I was curious about. Thanks for the reply.

I’m thinking about buying around winter time. I would be getting a loan. Either a fixed rate or if I don’t have enough down payment it would be a 5/5 ARM. Even if rates are high, my house hold income is pretty stable and expected to increase a good amount in a couple of years.

>> No.51239692 [DELETED] 

>>51235618
This would be perfect, just at the bullmarket i can slurp a house

>> No.51239735

>>51235618
This would be perfect, just at the bullmarket i can slurp a hous

>> No.51239786

>>51235618
The fed is about to kill the housing market. Gonna be some real good deals anons.

>> No.51239789

>>51235618
>wait 3 years
could be too late by then.
everything is still getting bought up even now.
demand is not going away.
so is the gamble is to buy now and miss a possible near-future dip?
or wait to buy later and deal with high interest rates if you want to finance anything?

>> No.51239827

>>51237347
Yeah it's gonna be way sooner than 2024 for sure. Sept/October historically are the months when there's blood in the streets for the markets.

>> No.51239852

>>51239789
Nah, prices are gonna crash this is only a small dip so far. Need to let it percolate a little. Maybe early mid 2023, or earlier if shit really hits the fan, as it very well could. Especially with them doing the predatory loans to minority neighborhoods again.

>> No.51239866

>>51235618
I need to move the fuck away from my in laws. Rented a house right near them so my mother in law could help babysit. Big mistake

>> No.51240147

>>51235740
Only if wages inflate. They're not.

>> No.51241316
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51241316

>>51237339
So gold, silver and lead?

>> No.51241438

>>51241316
shiny rock not needed, lead is the only important one

>> No.51241522

>>51235901
Based pilotbro. Get in some STOL training and you can run private competitions for extra cash

>> No.51241626

>>51241316
shiny rock not needed