/biz/ - Business & Finance

0.5 bps my dubs confirms it

The jackson hole speech was brutal that anything less than 75bps would destroy their credibility

>>51138991
if he's serious about fighting inflation, 600 bps would be a good start. 75 bps is literally nothing.

>>51138991
100 bps

>>51138991
either 75 or 100

>>51138991
0.5 bps

70% chance of 75 bps, 30% chance of 100 bps

>>51140012
you miss the point, larping is a good tool for them, less gains in stonks means less capital in the economy means less inflation.

Larping is unironically a strong monetary tool.

>>51140316
If he raises less than 75bps then equities will moon because everyone will know that he's just bluffing. 75bps or more will lead to a crash because people will know that he was being serious

>>51140303
I seriously think it would be weird for the fed to accelerate so fast it's going to put so much pressure on the euro it may break the eu this winter.

Bonds are pricing peak interest at 4% in february with a 100 bps rate rise it would only give the fed one chance more at 50 bps

they really can't rise above 4% without systemic risks so not sure why they would not larp 50 bps 3 or 4 more times rather than waste all in 100 bps and then being nearly the limit

>>51140334
>If he raises less than 75bps then equities will moon because everyone will know that he's just bluffing.

And that's good for the governments during elections.

The problem si that they really can't rise rates too much without serious systemic risks i mean the usa literally defaults if rates go above 12% but that's assuming no recession fucks with tax gains collected by the us government.

So if they fuck this up and cause a recession causing tax collection to collapse and on top of that there is still inflation they would literally put burgerland at default risk.

This can be avoided by high inflation since dxy will still go higher anyway due to europe going to shit.

But still it's a risky path.

>>51140303
heh

>>51138991
Does FOMC Stand for
Fear Of Mass Capitulation?