/biz/ - Business & Finance

r/wsb is calling monday circuit breaker

Crowded trades always work out well. Safety in numbers.

So the bull run is commencing tomorrow

>>51137961
>r/wsb
go back

>>51137946
>shorted the covid recovery
>longed the top
>shorting now
Hmm

>>51138113
This. Remember faggots be sneedy when others are feedful

We might have a dead cat bounce on Monday but we are tanking back to 390 SPY atleast. It will try to recover from there but then CPI numbers for August will come in hotter/show that inflation hasn't peaked and the fed will be forced into 75-100bps hike in September and then we are going to retest June's low ~360 SPY.

People will finally be forced to acknowledge we are in a recession when Q3 GDP comes in negative and we have 9 months of decreasing GDP. BTC will be sub 15k by then

Lmao, all that shit and can't even the S&P below 4k. So much fucking money has been printing, and the fed "tightening" is a drop in the bucket. Fiat a fucking ponzi scheme and you are retarded for shorting real assets.

>>51137946
because its literally free money when something breaks and the market shits itself while the FED sits idly by and watches with glee (as they wait for the perfect moment to *intermediate* and cut rates in an *emergency*)

>>51138309
>bear stearns collapses
>market rallies
>lmao not even bank failure can crash the market at this point
*4 months later*

>>51137946
retail shorting/puts = time to pump

>>51138282
Why do you think inflation hasn't peaked? I expect CPI for August to be good but for the fed to hit us with 75 bps anyways for maximum drama (and because it's actually needed)srrp2

>>51138309
>you are retarded for shorting real assets

"Real assets" are overvalued at 100-200x price to earnings ratios during a fucking recession, rate hikes, energy crisis and active war. The more money the retarded dems print to try to stay in power the hotter inflation is going to get and the harder we are going to crash.

We just pumped for 6 fucking weeks on all bad news.. missed earnings, lowered guidance, technical recession etc etc.. we pumped for six fucking weeks for no reason. We have do much further to fall (crypto another -75%, -100% for altcoins)

>>51138434
The whole peak inflation narrative was absolute horseshit. Biden dumped the strategic oil reserves for a month straight to barely get energy prices to come down to fudge inflation and it didn't even drop.. it stayed flat. Since then energy prices have been mooning straight back to where they were before manipulation and they printed another 1.5 trillion dollars (chips act, anti inflation act.. holy fucking lol that name, and student loan forgiveness)

1.5 trillion dollars printed in a month during 9% inflation.. it's so unbelievably incompetent

>>51138282

Oil is down 5% this month.

>>51137967
Except when they don't which is most of the time

>>51138505
What world are you in where oil is trending down? It's almost back to June highs

>>51137946
>two years
people still not seeing what's unfolding before them, it's like they sit in an arena where they put in a drop of water, which multiplies every minute. They think it will be years before they drown.

>>51138453
Anon, Every altcoin outperformed BTC during the bear too. yes, you read that right, most alts actually GAINED SATS during the fucking bear market.

>>51138536
Jpow flat out said he is going to fuck the markets into the ground until you faggots feel pain and go back to work. No one is going to have extra McDonald's paycheck money left over to gamble on dog coins anymore and every cycle of rugging normies on scams just pushes more people away from crypto that won't be coming back ever. I don't see any reason to hold crypto as you can infinitely leverage in stocks in stuff that had far less risk attached

>>51138523

Thats not a regular oil contract you fucking zoomer.

>>51138570
>he is going to fuck the markets into the ground until you faggots feel pain and go back to work.

the labor market is hot as fuck and coming recession will force companies esp tech to trim fat.

the real problem is the fed's job is to tame inflation and congress keeps passing "anti-infation" legislation that obvioisly isn't. so get ready for .75 basis point hikes until it surpasses volker. what we're living now is the new norm, just pray you dont get fucked until you can make it to next bull run.

>>51138685

The labour market is “hot” for blue collar work.
Its not so hot anywhere else other than for very skilled people, like top Lawyers and senior software engineers, which is basically the case in all economic conditions anyway. There is always a shortage of very skilled people.

The blue collar shortage is whats driving the “hot” labour market.

>>51138685
You get it.. the fed wants inflation to come down but how are tiny rate hikes supposed to compete with absolutely retarded fiscal policy in DC. The machine is breaking, layoffs will happen (already started) and wages will come down. They printed themselves into a fucking mess and the only way to fix it is demand destruction (fucking normies so hard they literally can't shop). It's already started.. Walmarts Q2 guidance said sales are fucked, banks/credit card companies Q2 guidance is projecting 20-30% defaults this year, phone service providers Q2 guidance said they had the most delinquent phone bills ever...

Sell puts or just stay out until we find a bottom. The fake and gay summer pump is over

>>51138738
Buy puts*

>>51138738

Almost correct.
The only thing THE FED can control is demand. To a degree. As you said, they do that by worsening financial conditions so people stop spending.

However the main issue and factor to bring down inflation, which dwarves everything the fed can do by many factors is energy prices. The FED have no control of them, but have to do something.
The moment energy prices ever fall(have been, but need to fall another 35% and stay there for dramatically reduced inflation) inflation will reduce rapidly.
If Energy prices simply remain stable till EOY inflation will also reduce fast, however that would still lead to a recession even if inflation lowers as high energy prices are not good for the economy.

>>51138786
>lead to a recession
You are already in one buddy.. 6 months decreasing GDP already happened and the Whitehouse just said "nuhuh we redefined what a recession is this isn't one" and greedy bulls pumped into that clown announcement

Demand destruction will bring down energy prices as well. When the poors stop driving because gas is too expensive and they got laid off and when grandma just shivers under extra blankets this winter because natural gas is up 200%

>>51138453

"Overvalued" PEs only if you assume inflation goes back to being low, but when $1 is $1.1 next year, $1.3 the year later, etc. The "overvalued" PEs are actually undervalued because they are measured in fiat which will become more and more worthless.

>>51137946
if these hedged are short positions my dick is diamonds. it means theyre buying spot but selling futures short, waiting for the green light.

>>51139065
Shit is so absurdly overvalued and people are so oveleveraged bull on the future of shit companies that are barely profitable in many cases. There will be capitulation at some point when the debt based economy can't keep up with min payments anymore. Tesla for example has a market cap larger than every other auto manufacturer on earth combined... after all the boomers die I think the whole "line has to go up forever" mentality will die with them. This forum alone is proof that zoomers just want to gamble on pump and dumps and yolo trade... how many people will be left that want to DCA into SPY for 40 years of wage slaving? The indexs are already a hilarious scam being propped up by like less than 10 companies. Cults like AAPL and TSLA are really supposed to continue to grow 300% every couple of years? Where's the upside after the market is saturated with overpriced phones and shitty electric cars?

>>51138719
>The labour market is “hot” for blue collar work.

when i and economists say "running a hot labor market" i mean 95%+ red hot like redlining an engine you larping retard.

>>51138738
>The machine is breaking,

this is what i dont understand, if you genuinely did think the system was crashing you would be buying guns ammo tinned food and water not puts and shorts.

>and wages will come down.

i disagree, i dont think the fed would tolerate a deflationary spiral. inflation is survivable, we did survive the volker shock. the last time we had severe deflation it was great depress followed by ww2, and the fed will do anything and everything to avoid that.

>Walmarts Q2 guidance said sales are fucked, banks/credit card companies Q2 guidance is projecting 20-30% defaults this year, phone service providers Q2 guidance said they had the most delinquent phone bills ever...

i wasn't aware it was that bad, i've been tired as fuck and not following Q2 earnings reports. do you just read everything or is this reported somewhere?

>>51139193
collateralized phone-lease obligations are probably a securitized product, lol, lmao even

>>51138453
>>51139188
you don't understand markets or money and will continue to be confused until you move on from your juvenile way of thinking

>>51138138
Checked and kekked

>>51137946
Short Selling should be outlawed

>>51139234
>collateralized phone-lease obligations

>>51138506
I think he was being sarcastic

>>51137961
maybe you go back to r/wsb and never come here ever again

>>51137946
according to chart one last leg down

>>51139293
The US markets are the only ones on earth where "line goes up forever". It's an exception because of our level of corruption and global abuse forcing the world to exchange on US debt that we print at will with no backing. There is no guarantee this will continue and frankly I could see markets being lower 10 years from now than they are currently with the amount of debt and mismanagement currently going on. Just look at other indexs around the world.. the Nikkei has crabbed for 5 years

>>51139065

i dont think you can apply CPI/PPI inflation to value or PE of equities i'd caution against this frame of reference. value of equities are more a reflection of market/investor confidence expressed in fiat, instead of having a direct relationship to fiat like goods and services on CPI/PPI.

>>51139234

>not investing in securitized products derived from collateralized pizza-lease obligation
>year of our lord and savior 2000+22

i seriously hope you don't do this

>>51137961

the real thing to watch is monday 9/5. i wonder how many layoffs are going to happen this final week of august/fuccboi summer.

As a quant economist:
>>51137946
You can interpret the net futures positions like the economy being artificially pumped up (if positive) or suppressed (if short). The market is currently suppressed, once these guys close their short itll go up again. Right now, market heavily suppressed. I wouldn't recommend shorting atm.
>>51139188
By which metric are things being overvalued? Please look up historical forward PE and compare it to now.
>>51138786
Mostly correct. Note that this is a cost-push inflation, the FED cannot bring down such inflation BUT it can (should) prevent wage-cost spiral by bringing the economy down so much that wagies cannot push for higher wages. Yes, this means that you'll get poorer. Such is the nature of cost-push inflation, unlike monetary inflation where you not necessarily have to get poorer. The most important metric the FED is watching is the wage increases QoQ. This needs to get to close to zero before the FED pivots.

The best trade right now is to be short EUR and long energy.

>>51139476
>we

>>51139588
9/13 is CPI
9/16 is quad witching when a metric fuckload of options expire
9/20 is the fed rate hike

We bleed until one of these catalysts gives some reason to reverse or if the Russian/Ukraine war ends. If any of these catalysts are worse than expected we will retest yearly lows (down 10% from where we are now)

>>51139620
>FED
>BUT
>EUR
What do the letters stand for?

>>51139620
>The market is currently suppressed, once these guys close their short itll go up again.

i'm seeing a chicken and egg problem from your explanation, which came first the recession or suppression? or does it not matter?

>>51137961
Finally.

>>51139620
>By which metric are things being overvalued?
Every metric?

>>51139764
No, your metrics just document the switch from an S&P dominated by low PE companies like energy et al to one dominated by software companies with high PE.

Exxon mobile used to be the most valuable company in the world. Today it is Apple. These companies warrant a completely different multiple.

>>51138738
>the fed wants inflation to come down but how are tiny rate hikes supposed to compete with absolutely retarded fiscal policy in DC.

i also want to add, i dont think anyone expected the anti-inflation bill to pass, there was a lot forecasting that biden/dems would lose power to push legislation around this time as the repubs regain congress in midterms.

i think there's a good chance fed will push stronger BPS hikes but a couple of months lag time past so it wont be seen as a direct response to anti-inflation bill. however, i think this trend of congress refusing to match fed monetary police with fiscal policy continues and the pressure ramps up on cost of living, the system will still not fail. with that said, to survive just follow 2 simple rules: be rich and dont be unrich.

>>51139842
Nonsensical post.

>>51139890
So in your world a software company like Google deserves the same earnings multiple as a oil or tobacco company?
If Google has a higher earnings multiple than Altria that means Google is valued?

>>51139927
Earnings and revenues aren't growing any faster now than they did in the past. In fact, growth is slower.

>>51139927
>so your saying tech companies deserve a lower multiple

Yes. It's the most overvalued shit on earth and they can only afford to hire trannies to do 1 hour of work a week for 6 figs because the government money printer is infinitely funneling money into tech bullshit that produces nothing of value other than posting rainbow flags and censoring wrong think. Facebook tanking 60% this year and still having a double digit p/e shows you how far this tech bullshit can fall when the government money printer overheats and bursts into flame

>>51140004
Yeah you should def have sold Google when it had a PE of 80, what an overvalued piece of shit it was back then.

>>51140148
There have always been growth stocks with high PEs. The point is that the multiple for the ENTIRE market is at historic levels of overvaluation.

Hows my Little Burry doing?

>>51140148
Big tech is literally just an arm of the new world order globohomo. It's value isn't based in anything tangible other than their ability to be told by the elite what type of ideas and thinking should be censored. In return they get good boy points (egs score and unlimited qualitative easing).

I would never short or long Google specifically when I can just short the entire nasdaq

God I fucking hate bears so much, keep posting your garbage in this thread begging markets to fall further because you’re pathetic poorfags with no skin in the game

I cannot WAIT until we hit new highs on the SPX by year end to finally put you faggots away for good. You stupid niggers are getting far too uppity

>>51140337
I'll record myself cutting my own dick off and eating it and post it on /biz/ if we hit ATH this year. Screen cap it nigger

>>51140348
Good you fucking faggot not that you need it anyways. 14 posts of bear cope in this thread alone begging for lower prices because you’re pathetic and own 0 assets. All of you faggots deserve to be irreparably BTFO like you were coming out of COVID in early 2020. I bet you were spouting the same faggot shit back then too.

>>51137961
+5% confirmed

>>51140378
>not bullish on anything
I have a bunch of VALE calls. They produce most of the iron and nickel in the world. I'm also bullish on DFEN because the US will surely start another war to bail us out of this recession

>>51140337
>short
>no skin in the game

>>51137946
hedge funds desperately trying to claw back their 1H losses.
they'll turn a quick profit and get even, september will suck. in october energy is going to smash them again, only the uranium investors will survive.

>>51137961
it's possible. but could you Go The Fuck Back and never return here again? impossible.

>>51137973
Unlikely. There will be a bounce at some point, I'm leaning towards after labor day.

We will get a few sideways days before the bounce. We blew through a ton of demand zones with no resistance on Friday. People really were pricing in a 50 basis point hike and just got a severe dose of reality. The whole July rally was based on the belief that Fed rate hike pace was slowing and a reversal was in sight. That's clearly not happening at this point so the July rally is going to be undone. Going forward there isn't going to be anymore rallying on bad economic news like there was in July and early August. That shit was stupid and now it's time to pay the price for that idiocy.

>>51139982
Listen to an AAPL or MSFT earnings call anon you might find it very educational

>>51140565
Why? Do they have secret data on the history of the stock market?

>>51140337
I agree. If the yield curve can get fixed and midterms results in a shift in the balance of power then revisiting the ATH and making a new one is on the table imo.

>>51138523
Uhh.. you know exploration and production stock ETFs aren't equivalent to the price of a barrel of oil, right?