/biz/ - Business & Finance

Please tell me everything will go back down soon.

Holy oil volatility batman!

Where are uranium stocks going in price? Is there any more good news coming? See, basically what I need is for the green line to go up. Not down, but the total opposite of that. Just up.

>>51090445
It seems like a bit of a copout to say in essence that "well there are serious problems with the idea that we can power the whole world with renewable energy and batteries, but we will surely just figure it out". The core issues are as follows:
>Intermittent nature of energy generation
higher capacity is needed to account for shortfalls in wind or sunlight, i.e. much more windmills or solar panels or batteries are needed to be on grid than are needed to maintain baseload to act as a buffer. Translates to a need for more minerals. GTK calculates that as much as 573.4TWh needs to act as a 4-week power buffer.
>General mineral intensity
not only are solar and wind very material intensive in their own right, GTK has noted that as much as 2.78B tonnes of Li-ion batteries would be needed to power the world and this would far exceed known reserves. Copper reserves would be sufficient but not for many other metals. What about metal demand elsewhere, what about commodity prices and the cost of goods, wiring, etc.? Wouldn't things become extremely expensive? Even when recycling is taken into account, wouldn't most of it have to be put back into new batteries and energy generation after the old ones have to be decommissioned?
>Logistics
More mineral reserves can of course be discovered but can all that tonnage be mined and delivered across the globe to smelters, producers etc. on time?
Now hydrogen or new tech could solve a lot of these issues but that's something we'll see in the future. Looking at the issues right now it's clear to see that going full renewables/batteries is more of a leap of faith than you seem to want to admit. I think it's easy to forecast that the world will be using more fossil fuels in 2050 than now, especially when we account for increasing energy demand.

You guys should take a listen to the late macrovoices podcast. Was pretty interesting. Also got a "NOOO HE'S A CLIMATE DENIER" comment from a Twitter fag. I've always kind of heard that there's a food crisis coming but I couldn't really grasp why. Now I'm starting to get a little uncomfortable since sounds like we have a perfect storm brewing with more mouths to feed, potash fertilizer reductions, attempts to return back to normal farming methods, etc.
https://twitter.com/MacroVoices/status/1560382666180009985?t=fXHAoECzVCJfObdmD5fgig&s=19

Figured it is up your alley since I feel like everyone things the farming and fertilizer trade is over but honestly it could just be getting started and Russia could really continue to fuck over food production if they don't wanna deal with the wests bullshit anymore.

Errr, what the hell happened to UEX?

>>51091034
I'm still in my fertilizer play. They produce a potassium fertilizer that's better for the soil than potash.

>>51091115
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/uec-completes-uex-acquisition-2022-08-23
ooh, it was finally acquired by UEC. hmm, what happens to my shares now?

>>51091198
ah, i see they traded my ~5000 shares for 450 non-tradeable UEX shares. i'm assuming these will eventually become UEC shares, but i've never held through an acquisition before. interesting.

>>51090961
>higher capacity is needed to account for shortfalls in wind or sunlight, i.e. much more windmills or solar panels or batteries are needed to be on grid than are needed to maintain baseload to act as a buffer. Translates to a need for more minerals. GTK calculates that as much as 573.4TWh needs to act as a 4-week power buffer.
Intermittent production / low capacity factor means that energy storage is needed, but remember that it doesn't change the fact that every kwh produced by renewables in optimal locations is significantly cheaper than gas and coal.
>Lithium
Saying that current reserves aren't enough is kind of stupid because lithium demand has been so low in the past relative to what we will need. So obviously reserves are going to be relatively low as well. Companies aren't going to spend exploration dollars to build out 10000 years of reserves. Lithium isn't a scarce resource
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust
You will see reserves of lithium explode in the coming years as exploration dollars have increased.
>Wouldn't things become extremely expensive?
No, I don't think so. People underestimate the amount of natural resources there are on earth. Worst case is mining at lower grades but it's not going to be like 1/10th the grades. Just take oil as an example, people were calling for "peak oil" 50 years ago. We have produced and used an incredible amount of oil over the years and we could keep going for a long time if we wanted to. Same with coal and others. We barely begun mining lithium, we could mine loads of it for centuries.
>Even when recycling is taken into account, wouldn't most of it have to be put back into new batteries and energy generation after the old ones have to be decommissioned?
Yes that's the idea. But if say 90% of materials ends up being recycled we aren't going to need to mine that much more when the system is built out, depending on population and economic growth of course.

>>51091153

Mind to share what stock(s) you are in?

Why do you guys think URNM seems to be so much more volatile than other U stocks? Afaik it's pretty much the safest bet for investing in U but it is so much more volatile. Why?

>>51091355
>Intermittent production / low capacity factor means that energy storage is needed, but remember that it doesn't change the fact that every kwh produced by renewables in optimal locations is significantly cheaper than gas and coal.
Absolutely, also in these optimal locations sunshine is abundant for most of the day and wind speeds are high and more or less constant. Location is key. It doesn't make much sense to have a solar farm up here in Finland for example, but it makes very much sense to have one in Africa or Southern Europe nearer the equator
>Companies aren't going to spend exploration dollars to build out 10000 years of reserves. Lithium isn't a scarce resource
I actually agree with this. There is plenty of lithium. It's metals like cobalt that are more difficult to work around
>People underestimate the amount of natural resources there are on earth
Maybe you're right. The reality is that the world has neglected mineral exploration these past thirty or so years as I understand, so maybe that's the main issue. So it's rather the exploration & development of these resources that will cause higher prices than a lack of existing minerals underground
>Yes that's the idea. But if say 90% of materials ends up being recycled we aren't going to need to mine that much more when the system is built out, depending on population and economic growth of course.
That's a very ambitious target but I certainly hope we can recycle at least half as much as that. God knows the world needs less massive open pits and landfills
>>51091375
Vermilion Energy
Birchcliff Energy
Cheniere Energy (will likely sell this soon and move the money elsewhere)
Verde Agritech
Also some puts for shitcos like BBBY and RBLX, and loadsa dorra dorra bills

>>51091355
Optimal locations is they key. Waterwheels were identical to steam engines throughout most of the industrial era, however, the steam engine won out because it could be placed anywhere and not just in some remote location allowing manufacturing to be done in population centres and not just by a river. Similar to why the internal combustion engine won out over the electric car too.

>>51091034
>everyone things the farming and fertilizer trade is over
Ferts have been exploding all week, whether people are talking about it or making headlines doesn't matter. Just make sure you have exposure.
>>51091375
NTR, MOS, UAN

CF has broken the April ATH from earlier this year today too. These stocks are going to fucking boom and not look back again.

>>51091575
>Absolutely, also in these optimal locations sunshine is abundant for most of the day and wind speeds are high and more or less constant. Location is key. It doesn't make much sense to have a solar farm up here in Finland for example, but it makes very much sense to have one in Africa or Southern Europe nearer the equator
>>51091644
The thing is than you can transfer energy relatively easily today. Our grids are interconnected in Europe and we already trade lots of electricity across borders. We build massive solar parks in southern Europe and send the electricity up north, same idea with wind. Even if it ends up being slightly more expensive than fossil fuels, which I don't even think it will be, it will probably happen anyway at least here in Europe because energy independence is of geopolitical importance.
>I actually agree with this. There is plenty of lithium. It's metals like cobalt that are more difficult to work around
Tesla Model 3s produced in China uses iron instead of nickel and cobalt I think. Again, there are always substitutions.
>That's a very ambitious target
Recycling is going to be a massive industry and technologies will be improved. These materials are valuable, it is going to make economic sense to take batteries to a recycling plant. I'm guessing we already recycle batteries today, and especially a large car battery is going to be worth a lot of money in scrap value.

DOUBLE BOOTY BOTTOM FOR THE WIN????

>>51091909

>>51091773
>NTR, MOS, UAN
how would you rank them?

>>51090400
short uranium heads up. silex (OTCQXI:SILXF) is up almost 10% today on just 200 shares. it looks like a nice company and all, i haven't decided to buy any yet, however...
263,274 shares leave escrow on the 31st and can be sold into the market. these are "options" (1 "option" = 1 share here, not 100) which is just SBC to we americans. silex does not allow the stakeholders who receive these in compensation to actually be vested in them for two years from the grant date. however, similar to real options, they'll carry a per share cost basis called an exercise price that was set when the compensation plan was approved (not even on the grant date, but before it).
their annual reports publish a table of these with historical data, i assume the aussies force companies to do this. and 2+ years ago, the exercise prices were 35 cents, 35 cents, 21 cents -- then up to 57 cents in november of 2020 and a buck twenty in march 2021.
what's funny though is it's that one and only slot at 21 cents where there were any on issue -- 660k of them. the two periods prior, the 35-cent options were exercised during that year, presumably before they changed to their 2-year escrow plan.
while this does not represent a huge dilution, as there are 204 million outstanding, it does represent a substantial market move if they are sold into the market soon thereafter.

>>51091259
yeah and fuck UEC, so, you'll want to sell those as soon as idiots rush in and drastically overprice it. management overpays themselves at truly disgusting levels.

>>51090667
yes. there is 30 years of good news that won't stop coming. but with questions like that, you aren't going to be picking stocks, so go DCA into an ETF. maybe do 60/40 URA/URNM.

>>51092112
I don't see a reason to short something like this with such low liquidity. The fees and interest would be expensive not and the 10% pump would be of no benefit because there are no bids at that price

>>51092230
Hahahaha it's funny you say that because that's basically my split. I have a little besides that and bit of DNN but that's basically my stack. I'm new to stocks and it's so hard to hold because I put the bulk of my cash in and URNM dropped to $55 a share from $76 and so now I'm struggling to hold. I feel these stocks will go up I'm just nervous and inexperienced

>>51091773
>>51091575
no IPI?

The price of Euro natural gas futures topped 300 last night and now it's over 320. Yet Henry Hub prices just meander along sideways. Why?

>>51092561
US has a surplus of natty gas right now because the major export facility is temporarily closed

>>51092574
The one at Freeport? I thought that was our second largest.

>>51092433
please hold a good cash position preferably in USD. You'll learn to appreciate the optionality that a good cash position gives you

>>51092638
yeah freeport had a fire i believe and is shut down

>>51092759
>>51092638
Freeport is coming back online in November. Good time to position in Henry Hub sensitive stocks like BIR. Once the LNG shipments come back online Henry Hub will continue climbing due to diminishing domestic supply

>>51090400
lmao why does this chart look like pic related

I'm pretty happy with trillion so far. FUDers keep saying warrants will ruin this stock but I think the demand for nat gas is so great that a little dilution won't matter.

So that being said- what's the next trillion? Small/new company, low market cap, under the radar, on the cusp of producing in the right place at the right time?

>>51092791
shouldnt that already be priced in though since everyone knows the comeback online date?

>>51092856
Yeah it probably is, but Freeport will continue draining US supply 2Bcf/d. I believe there are also some new LNG terminals being planned and built, and SPR is being drained quickly. I don't see any reason to be bearish on natgas

>>51092433
Stop orders are your friend, anon.

>>51092895
https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/plaquemines-lng-project-louisiana/

There's this one, thought it's within spitting distance of N'Awlins and therefore vulnerable to hurricanes and rioting niggers. Anyone know of any others?

>>51092925
Cheniere is increasing LNG capacity by like 10Mt but that's for 2026. I think they have some spare capacity though

>>51092925
Tellurian has one coming 2026 innit

>>51092925
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/lng-project-tracker-signs-of-us-lng-renaissance-could-kick-start-construction-69130430
>The possibility of a U.S. LNG renaissance has fueled optimism among the backers of a dozen proposed export projects after a dearth of final investment decisions, or FIDs, since 2019. Six major natural gas liquefaction facilities in operation in the U.S. have been running at or near full utilization for months, with most cargoes flowing to Europe. A seventh export terminal — Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana — shipped its first cargo March 1 and has continued to ramp up production as additional trains come online.
Looks like one is in the process of ramping up

>>51093106
>>51092925
Also

>Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC executives said March 8 the company secured binding offtake agreements for about a third of the volumes it needs to cover the two-train, 9.4-Mt/y first phase of its export project on the Sea of Cortez in Mexico. President and CEO Douglas Shanda said the company expects to announce an FID in September on the project, which would use U.S. feedgas.

>The developer of the 18.1-Mt/y Golden Pass LNG Terminal wants to bring in more workers to build the Texas natural gas export facility. FERC staff in an environmental review issued March 22 found that Golden Pass' request to boost the peak workforce from 2,900 to 7,700 people per day would not cause significant harm to the environment, but the request still requires approval from the commission amid concerns of delay.
>Golden Pass also complained about permitting delays for an associated pipeline. As it stands, the export project remains on track to start operations in 2024, Golden Pass spokesperson Renwick DeVille said March 22.

>Sempra is working to commercialize plans for a fourth liquefaction train at Cameron LNG. The train would be designed with a capacity of 6.75 Mt/y.
>The developer asked FERC in a Jan. 18 filing to approve an amended plan to let the company pursue a single gas liquefaction train expansion at the three-train, 12-Mt/year capacity LNG export facility. The amendment would change an existing authorization for a two-train expansion that would have added a total 9.97 Mt/y of production capacity.
>Sempra's top priority among LNG projects is building its $2 billion Energía Costa Azul terminal on the west coast of Mexico on time and on budget. The company planned for this 2.5-Mt/y facility to start producing LNG in 2024.

And more. Loads of LNG projects coming online and ramping up

>>51093213
So is American LNG a good buy? I'm really not familiar with the market...are there "junior natural gas producers?" Seems like those are due for a pop as Europe desperately scrambles to source nat gas.

>>51092010
UAN>>>MOS>NTR

>>51092327
sorry by "short" i meant quick. you should not short silex stock.

>>51093323
I don't know much about UAN but I heard MOS trades at a p/e ratio of 3x and NTR at 5x. There's a lot of value here if you buy the fertilizer trade. And I certainly do because Germany is shuttering nuclear plants for no reason other than retard green energy shit.

>>51093480
What do potash and phosphates have to do with nuke plants in Germany? I don't follow.

>>51092433
you'll be fine with anything so long as you commit the right amount of money to it. with uranium, that amount should be fairly low right now as a percentage of your total portfolio -- but increasing over time, maybe over the next year.
a lot of the excitement in this space is among people who have been waiting like ten years for a rebound, so don't get caught up in that. you're new so you can be unreasonable with your expectation for the timing of events and price movements, and i can tell you it is still gonna be two years before the uranium market is in full swing.

>>51093316
LNG prices are going to be pretty darn high for the time being. The backdrop here is that Europe shot itself in the leg by destroying its energy policy and is now dependent on Russian pipeline gas. Now Gazprom is having "technical difficulties" with gas deliveries and Europe is quickly building more regasification terminals and buying any non-Russian natural gas they can get. A lot of the natgas supply that used to come from ruskies will have to come from elsewhere. A lot is going to come from the USA as LNG shipments.

What matters is 1) what price the producer can get, i.e. margins, and 2) how are different benchmark prices going to move going forward? European natgas or TTF is absolutely skyrocketing so LNG shipments or pipeline gas sold to yuros will carry very high premiums. Companies that benefit from high TTF price would be Vermilion, Cheniere or Equinor to mention a few. But I think that eventually TTF will settle somewhere closer to €200/MWh in the next few years rather than the +€300/MWh right now, just hard to tell when that will happen. I might be totally wrong on this so I remain positioned there. On the other hand I believe that US natgas, or Henry Hub, will continue to go up because of the price arbitrage of TTF and increasing natgas shipments from USA to Europe (and Mexico, as they are buying up US natgas to also send to Europe). So I'm positioned in Birchcliff which has high exposure to Henry Hub prices

>are there "junior natural gas producers?"
Plenty. For example, Trillion produces in Turkey and Petrus has good exposure to Henry Hub IIRC. Plenty more out there too

>>51093106
>Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana
There is an infuriating lack of specific information on when the sucker is going to become fully operational. We know when the Freeport facility is supposedly going to come back up. I can find nothing about Calcasieu except bland marketing bullshit. And that is going to radically affect the price of LNG over the winter, and this winter is a unique opportunity given the multiple manmade and natural disasters hitting northern Europe.

>>51093515
Because first world governments are pulling the same ESG shit with fertilizer as they are with energy. Canada, one of the largest potash sources in the world, is telling their farming population they have to reduce their use DESPITE the fact that we are jetting towards a global food crisis.

I know America sucks shit but honestly we have so much corporate interest here that this is one of the only places I feel like I'm not about to starve.

>>51093827
I missed a key point here -- it's clear to me from Germany's attitude towards nuclear that a similar stance is gonna be taken to fertilizer from politicians and they don't mind starving their population for climate change. So buckle up.

>>51093818
best just be positioned to profit from both yuro gas and mutt gas going up. They're both in a very good place and companies selling the stuff are making bank.

>>51093856
I've looked for some way to profit directly off the skyrocketing TTF LNG prices -- the Euro equivalent of UNG, say -- but I'll be damned if I can find any that are available to me as an American investor.

>>51093931
aren't they traded as futures?

>>51093851
It's worth nothing too that a lot of enriched uranium comes from Russia as well.

Hey friends, got any recommended commodity funds/ETFs? I was looking at VCMDX but didn't realize there's a $50k minimum buy-in so that's out.

>>51094030
Obviously. Now tell me how a private American investor buys TTF futures in Holland, either directly or via an ETF.

>>51094115
For me it's buying Vermillion and watching them fuck up on their hedges.

>>51094100
To elaborate, I mean one fund that generally covers all commodities as opposed to funds for just oil, uranium, etc.

>>51094115
durrrr uhhhhhave you tried a VPN?
>>51094159
me too

>>51094100
I like GUNR

>>51092010
UAN is the one I hold.

>>51094286
Not everybody is a member of your sekrit club. What is a VPN in this case and how does one access and employ it to cash in on the unholy hell that will break loose in northern Europe once it starts snowing.

>>51086827
I never left, simply refrained from posting in my style. I contribute articles I find, never DD. So there's that

>>51094347
jus uuuhhhh use a VPN or something bro

>>51094302
GUNR is the best.

>>51094376
So, use a virtual private network to fake out the European futures market and somehow transfer money back and forth from a fake European bank account. How about keeping it real you mouth breathing faggot. This is /CMMG/. We deal in the realm of the real. You want to whine and shitpost the rest of the board is wide open.

>>51094115
aren't these also traded on CME?

>>51094474
I post how I want and where I want. How about you start using a VPN before you start shit with me. I'll have you know I've hacked multiple futures exchanges and I have over 300 confirmed kills in Minecraft where I run mines way more profitably and efficiently than most of the world's mining CEOs could ever even dream about. So next time you start losing your marbles about some lighthearted jokes, think again, I could come steal your diamonds next

>>51094409
I have 10% of my IRA in it because I don't see any reason to buy bonds in this environment. Wish it had a lower expense ratio but what can you do?

i think oil might be the most crowded trade in commodities right now

>>51094923
Probably yeah. Less crowded ones would be precious metals, iron and aluminum I think?

>>51094923
You have a real interesting mix of people who either
A) believe that this time isn't different and recession, summer ending, short term hiccups etc mean oil HAS to go down so they're selling vs
B) people who see the writing on the wall that we've walked ourselves into an energy corner and its a calm before the storm because natural gas shortages will inevitably draw oil prices up as well as the other limited oil supply as the economy tries to recover.

I'm in camp B and think this is a buy the dip opp because too many people are comfortable with the "this time isn't different" narrative. So we're basically gonna ping pong around this range I think until it starts to get cold and then we are gonna really see some action.

>>51094474
>This is /CMMG/. We deal in the realm of the real.

>>51094923
People have been saying that for a year and the open interest keeps going down

>>51095136
oh boy. Is it going to break up or down? I'm betting up

>>51095182
Price I mean

>>51095136
yeah but look at oil stocks. SM energy is still up around ATHs even though oil has fallen from 125$ down to 94$. these people simply arent selling their oil stocks

>>51095467
SM energy is down 50% from its ATH in 2013-2014.

>>51095575
ok thats like 10 years ago, i'm talking recently

>>51095467
the question to ask is, at what oil price are the stock priced.

I finally dropped my bag of horse shit

>>51096470
A bit late but better late than never. Isn't it liberating?

>>51096470
I have 100 shares of GME that I thought I could just sell CCs on and its not treating me well

>>51096530
yeah I'm thinking a career change
maybe I'll become an oil baron

>>51094115
you get an account with IB, interactive brokers.

>>51094474
>How about keeping it real you mouth breathing faggot.

>>51096470
Same. Lesson learned

>>51096470
>I finally dropped my bag of horse shit
i'm convinced that half of the posters on the BHS ceo.ca board are involved in the scam themselves
greede and wanderer9641 specifically

New Savage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdpH_5OksgE

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1562916722583166978

I was wondering why they didn't post for 12 hours. Looks like they were suspended for unauthorized opinions.

Good to see that the cryptocurrency that the governments are refusing to support is being used as support in international matters. You just can't hate it, preach against and not look like an idiot.

If you need pointers, get some of Syscon and HODL for another year or 2, maybe 3, then retire

evening! Two bits of big news out today.

https://www.mining.com/teslas-battery-metals-bill-balloons-to-100-billion/ This is bad for the EV market as a whole, prices for raw materials will leave these vehicles out of reach for the average consumer soon.

https://www.mining.com/web/peru-lowers-2022-growth-forecast-and-abandons-mining-tax-hike-plan/
I am glad to see Peru is scrapping their mining tax hike. It wouldnt have worked and it has already scared off investment.

I feel like I got poisoned but I'm not understanding where was the breakdown in the chain. Did I get injected after I ate?

>>51099077
Are you saying peru is safe now? What was the peru miner you liked, alta copper or something?

>>51099171
i am not sure i would call them safe yet but their probably far less likely right now to do anything stupid like nationalization of resources. I havent looked at many Peruvian companies / explorers for a bit but i ll have a go at it tonight if you want.

Red here, chart is looking good for oil and natural gas. Moon any day. Go all in.

>>51099693
That better be a walling wedge it just broke out of.

>>51096470

>>51099199
https://apnmetals.com/

This is the one I recall we used to discuss.

>>51099693
Another fake Red?

>>51100218
Ah this one! its been ages since i looked at them, i ll go have a read in a bit then.

>>51100218
That's Chile, not Peru. Chile used to be the safest jurisdiction in SA but has gone steeply downhill, no positive news out of them lately. That company is losing money too, stay away.

>>51099077
>https://www.mining.com/teslas-battery-metals-bill-balloons-to-100-billion/
What was the source about how there isn't enough lithium to provide batteries for the green revolution?

>>51100833
there have been several articles recently discussing this, i ll see if i can dig up anymore.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/mr-lithiumalr-warns-there-s-not-enough-battery-metal-to-go-around

>>51100833
$100B sounds like a lot but it would be $5k per car in materials using July prices. Actually less than I would have thought.

Oil and gas futes doing a little better.

>>51101151
>$100B sounds like a lot
It's not about the money, it's about the feasibility and reality of it. If there isn't enough supply to go around, that means there's a hard cap on the technology. That means producers won't be able to make enough deliverables, which means it's a stunted industry, barring some kind of revolutionary change. Ergo, I find the EV thing to be a distraction

anyone know the address of bayhorse's processing facility? not the mine, but the place in town

Do you think Canada will ever nationalize a gold mine? What about agnico? They sold their gold reserves. What if they really want some gold?

>>51102264
unlikely as the physical mining is funded by the huge number of miners and explorers operating on the TSX. If miners or investment got wind that the country was headed for nationalization (which they would in a heart beat), they would flee in droves and probably crash the markets to a point not seen before. It wouldnt just be the mining sector leaving either, anyone in major investment would leave, crippling the economy, destroying any credibility left with the current government and probably cementing secessionist movements in many provinces.

>>51102264
>Do you think Canada will ever nationalize a gold mine?
We gave all our gold to China, our resources are already nationalized

>>51099077
Nice, Tesla this week also increased their full self-driving scamware to $15,000 USD, I’m sure the soys will gobble that and whatever other price increases are incurred by higher material inputs, because muh environment

>>51096597
yo red, can you confirm with your memeline for Peninsula please

https://twitter.com/SmartContracter/status/1562649339910328320

>>51103020
>Small green dildo present on Paladin, Energy Fuels, Deep Yellow but not Lotus or Peninsula
I don't know man, I still have a small bag of PEN left but I'm not too optimistic on it

XOP
>Yeah you know me

>>51100833
I mentioned this a day or two ago but IIRC Tesla alone needs about 2x the worlds current annual lithium production (100,000mt) to satisfy their own 2030 EV production targets.

We’re not even getting into the neodymium or praseodymium and other lanthanides that from a down-stream production standpoint are predominantly controlled by China. We have like literally 2 rare earths processing plants (Lynas, MP) outside of China, which is woefully insufficient for decoupling from the ever-adversarial chinks.

We will sit back and admire the blind ignorance of the Transfrancisco crowd as they go head-to-head with the physical world constraints (with current battery chemistries/material composition) imposed on their green pipe dream.

Neat Trillion share price projection (based on US Nat gas spot) and FCF models shared by a CEO user, for anyone interested. $11+ for TCF shares would be an early retirement for a few anons here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sY2qGqwv5V0m8mXJIIC8yJkQepvue0GJ1BctAbRUNb8/edit?usp=sharing

>>51103076
I need more confirmation if I should sell for more Gold/Silver exposure. I love PENMF and will take position again after a crash but now seems not the best hold.

>>51103125
California doesn't care if scarcity prices the rest of the world out of EV's because they can afford the price increase via inflation arbitrage.

basically the people in Alabama that want EV's are fucked because their dollar is worth far less than California's. And if Alabama can't afford them, there's no chance for the people of other countries. This isn't a global thing. Rich people are fine with them driving while nobody else can. And Californians are rich.

>>51103125
>>51103264
The green dream isn't that the world will drive EV's

it's that the world will drive bicycles while rich people drive EV's. That can be done with current materials, it's already happening over most of the globe. Most people in the world have never owned a car and never will.

>>51103125
Hydrogen and sodium are also options anon

Patrik Karim charting oil to uranium ratios.. I don’t think I’ve ever even thought of charting those two. The top chart makes me want to sell everything and pile into Encore and a basin play like Nexgen

>20Moz+

Could Snowline end up dwarfing the Great Bear story that ran up to around $30?

>>51104590
Maybe. What's certain is that people who bought very low will end up easily with 20+ bagger

jealous...

>>51103149
>$11+ for TCF
>25x current price
Shit nigga that'd net me almost half a million and I'm on the low end of Trillion stacks from what I've seen of other anons

>>51103149
gas and oil producer ? no debt ? tons of cash ?

I'll look more into it...

>>51094656
Lmao based

>>51101980
There is only 3x more copper than lithium in the earth's crust, but production is 400x higher and we have been producing copper for a long time and could go on for centuries. We only need to increase lithium production several times, we could produce 100x more if demand is there. Last year lithium production increased 32% in just one year.

Should people be waiting for the September crash or is that thesis broken and we should be buying?

>>51105721
Crash in what?

>>51105837
Everything.
Either that or risk assets will melt up
>watch and learn

>>51105897
>It's either gongo down or up
Very astute analysis, sir.

So we will be hearing from Powell and his gang today, what do y'all think they will say? I'm starting to think peak hawkishness is behind us. If you zoom out and look back to the last hiking cycle in 2019, the economy couldn't even take the 2.5% we are already up to now and we are in a much worse state today than we were back then considering higher debt and huge commodity inflation.
I think they're going to go with 50 bps next meeting and that might very well be the last. What has really screwed up everything is the insane liquidity from QE, the smart thing to do would be to jack up balance sheet reduction instead of interest rates. The housing market is already dead. They added $3T in like a month post covid and now they want to reduce balance sheet by $1T per YEAR? how does that make sense?

>>51106168
More poor economic data just dropped
personal income 0.2%, Exp. 0.6%
personal spending 0.1%, Exp. 0.5%
deflator -0.1%, Exp. 0.0%

>>51103125
>Transfransisco

Top kek. Funniest thing I've heard all day.

>>51106168
"I'm a big gay nigger faggot and we're rigging the FUCK out of the markets" - Powell.

>>51106168
They'll do a 75bp raise. Markets are not even panicking and economic data as you pointed out is economical excrement

>>51106553
Market is kept up by the enormous amount of cash still left in the system from QE, asset prices is all about liquidity. Raising rates much further just doesn't make sense when the housing market has already been raped to death. The market is also pricing in rate CUTS by Q1 2023 because they know these rates aren't sustainable. They probably wouldn't even need to raise rates anymore than they have already and the economy would still stagnate.

>>51090400
I can get cartons of smokes for $35 each and sell each individual pack for $5 on the corner or about .25 a cigarette $50 a carton easy. Should I spend my last $350 of my welfare cheque on 10 cartons of smokes? Even if I sold 5 cartons a day I could maybe eat food.

>Bostic Leaning Toward Half-Point Hike

I am OFFICIALLY calling snowline will not correct and continue its upward trajectory. Red was 100% wrong on oil and the overall market drop, he will be wrong on snowline.

>>51100934
It's ok, dont worry, that other anon did a whole lot of DD and determined that all cars will be electric by 2030 and there are more than enough raw materials to make the world run on renewable energy too.

>>51106804
>Red was 100% wrong on oil
lol what
He literally called the peak of oil and I made mad cash on it. Oil is already faltering after touching the 200day moving average/18 dayMA bollinger band, and we still have the elections to come. It's too early to say whos right on whether oil is going to test 65 or not.

I agree that tiny stocks like Snowline and Atlas don't always have to play by the rules even if I also think they'll both pull back, hell SALT just dipped almost a dollar and that wasn't even down to the lower BB, but to say 100% wrong? I am OFFICIALLY calling you an idiot. Give your head a shake. September is going to upset a lot of people

>>51102264
>>51102356
I could see our commie government either adding a royalty to each producer, to give % of gold produced to the government, or mandating that they have to sell to the government if requested, before selling into the market. In such a scenario, gold would probably be over 10k an ounce so this might not be too devastating.

>>51107071
Do you even know how to use google though?

>>51106804

>Red was wrong on oil

Fuck you nigger I was not wrong. I was 100% right. That's the most solid call I've made all year

>>51103020
I see a bullish triangle pattern with Stiff Stiff resistance at the top end

>>51106729
That excess liquidity doesn't drain itself

>>51107346
That resistance of the 100 (green) and the 200 (yellow) combined with the bollinger band (white) is going to be stiff resistance to break through. However you're pretty much at a floor in terms of price and we know how violently uranium can move.

>>51107346
RSI shows you're coming out of a bottom so you may have enough upward momentum to break through.

>>51107301
>>51107084
Ease up. We are all having a laugh here. You're a real sport. You're alright. Honestly I have no idea what will happen to stocks and energy with September. People expecting it to drop makes me think it will go up, but it seems rrady to fall. I think its time to just start buying. Uranium, oil, and gas might very well not go down and we are past the bottom.

>>51107410
I was joking and not serious.

>>51107410
Most traders would advocate at least taking a tranche position in oil. I'm holding out because of the reasons the other anon stated.

My uranium position is fully loaded right now.

>>51090400
This is an abstract Nikado Avacado isn't it?

>>51107484
top kek

>>51107410
>We are all having a laugh here.
Fair enough kek my bad, I'm just a high aggro guy and people tend to meme less in here so I sometimes take posts more seriously than they're intended. You got me.

>>51107436
I was somewhat lol but I can't resist clashing teeth

Powell speaking very soon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJ3sEeArWlw&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision

>>51096470
Sad to see you go friend. I will just ride to zero or hero.

>>51096561
Thinking about doing this if lukoy ever opens back up from jewlimbo

>>51107506
I was messing with you too. Always down for a good spar.

>>51107506
>>51107084
But here's what I'm seeing with oil right now and this is a messy chart but I want you guys to see what I'm seeing.

You have oil currently coming up to a back test of the 200 day ma and the Bollinger band, with an over bought RSI, bearish near term macro fundamentals, in a downtrend. It is very unlikely that this will break through.

I am absolutely bullish oil but the near term chart shows further downside and I am playing it accordingly. Downside target for me personally is about $68 a barrel. It might not go down that far but i am waiting over the next month. Oil might indeed be breaking out right now but I just think on terms of a risk reward scenario it's better to stay out for now, about a month or so.

so anyways when is Powell speaking

>>51107656
right now.

>>51107615
Do you put into any stock of the gold to oil ratio and it going to 1:10 for 240$ a barrel oil Q4 or early next year?

>>51107711
I pay attention to those ratios and keep them in mind as I make investments. I believe long term oil to gold ratio can support a price of $600 a barrel. Andy is the one I follow on that. I think once this energy shortage gets going we will definitely see prices in that range.

Huge volatility. So Powell was hawkish which sent prices down but then everything spiked up right after I assume because new inflation expectation data, which the fed relies heavily on, showed slightly lower inflation expectation.

>>51107701
link?

>>51107905
what did he say about rate hikes and QT

>>51107981
2 posts up somebody posted it.

In a nutshell everything will resume as planned. Continued suckage and half assery.

>>51106002
Thank you sir I did my best

Bought some MOS, NTR, and UAN today. Right before the dump too. Whatever. I've got a long ass timeframe.

>>51097294
and the rest are paid to shit on it. every community has those 1 or 2 that shit non stop on the co but for some reason will never sell their shares and move on. assuming youre one of those.

>>51108611

Red here. Just ass fucked a renewable energy fag with my debate bros behind a gas station. Anyway, go all in on oil. It will moon tomorrow. Red over and out.

Top intercepts this week, any AG bros? Nice hit for Keith

Snowline gold starting the correction.

>>51107615
I can see it and it makes sense.

Thanks for the Ira Epstein recommendation the other day btw, learning a lot and that's just from his daily videos. I haven't even started his course yet but it's coming

>>51107788
Checked thanks!

>>51109739
Oh that's cool dude. Watch him for a week or two to get the hang of his charting and then take the course. It's a good fundamental education in trading and I really think that's what separates me from other traders.

>>51109711
There are too many factors for it to keep that momentum. Especially with sell the news alone being an indicator.

>>51110135
my target is about $1.98 on this move

>everything red today
>only green things are my covered calls (shorts basically) and commodities
In particular, SOYB, CORN, WEAT and CANE are all up a small amount. This might be the last chance to really start building a position before things get murky

Should I buy Encore under a dollar?

>>51110573
What if there is a lot of "sudden deaths", what will that do to consumable commodities (food, gas). How do I profit from the retards.

>>51107375
>>51107389
thanks

>>51096470
wont sell until next silver top at 50 then i'm def out, made a promise to based small caps anon, can't break and sell now.

>>51107506
>people tend to meme less in here
thats what 24 months of crabbing do to your mental. I'm honestly surprised by how grumpy I sometimes become. Really salty normie can jump on our train while we jerked off for 2 years. Oh well, that's life.

>>51110135
only faggot think green dildo never correct.

>>51108734
i go to the bayhorse ceo.ca to learn what to watch out for on those types of forums and apply the lesson to other potential juniors i might be interested in. no one gets paid to shit on bayhorse

>>51110608
Yes.

Anyone know what's going on with Russia's economy right now? Are they still switching to a commodity basket backing with pm's? what's the tipping point here?

>>51110996
Roll!

>>51110996
End of September shmita year is over

Euro gas futures are up to 320 now but Henry Hub LNG keeps meandering around, even though the US is now Europe's largest LNG provider. The fuck is going on?

>>51111190
give it time. It will moon

>>51111190
They are constrained in how much gas they can ship to Europe.

>>51110608
you should buy it from me for 2.50

>>51111093
Was thinking going all in mid to late September. Anyone else think we are on the cusp of the actual breakout?

>>51106729
I have been starting to think that just before reversing we'll see jumbo hikes from lots of central banks. Like bump rates by 100bps so that they can pretend there is lots of headroom when they start cutting again.

>>51108818
I have 5590 shares of AG.

Ride or die.

>>51111359
I doubt it. Powell sounds hawkish now which is easy when the economy hasn't completely shit the bed yet, but when the pain really starts showing I doubt he will prioritize 2% inflation over giving some support to the economy.

>>51111206
>>51111217
Why the hell isn't there an ETF that'll let me invest in TTF gas futures? A Euro equivalent of UNG? A gargantuan amount of money is being made in response to a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of natural and manmade disasters and all I can do is watch. This is maddening.

>>51111773
just buy VET calls

Any good coal mining etfs?

>>51111971
So far, it looks like I want to target Australia, since US/EU are reducing coal usage, but China/India, and even Japan imports a ton, and Aus is one of the biggest exporters nowadays.

I saw BHP (11% div) and a few others

>>51111971
they were removed in 2020 due to low prices and anti-Semitic remarks.

>>51112710
my favorite australia coal choices are either Whitehaven coal, WHITF (lower divvy better company) or Yancoal, YAL (higher divvy)

WHAT
DO
I
BUY

Trillion is overbought and has been riding the 18 day bollinger band for a week now. Pullback to ~.34? That's how it looks to me.

You niggers are delusional, that is all.

>>51113183
Didn't see them on wikipedia, only saw BHP, NHPEF, GLNCY, WFAFY, BTU, NGLOY

I saw that Mitsubishi has a 50% stake in a particular company / partnership (presumably to secure a supply chain for its vehicles). Another interesting thing was that Australia has like 25% of the world's primary aluminum production; also that refining it takes like 5% of the entire US's annual energy supply. That's crazy.

Anyways, in terms of coal, I don't know much about the specifics of the industry. I did see that BHP has a suite mines which covers iron, coal, petrol, copper, natgas, nickel, and uranium, all sorts of goodies.

RANA WHERE IS THE BONANZA GRADE YOU GANG MADER

>>51108611
Added more since it was a decent dip and I'm a degenerate. 20 of MOS, 10 of NTR, 5 of UAN. UAN is a new one to me after seeing it shilled here but we'll see how it goes.

World may starve but I'm gonna profit off it.

>>51113267
Oil

>>51090400
Anons your participation needed, post opinions and habbenings

Global Hyperinflation General /GHG/ >>>/pol/392692320

Interfrens... Interfrens...
Shorts pinned down & bleeding out CHALF sector, request artillery support for gamma strike, over.

>>51113331
>>51113183
>>51112710
Today I threw $200 at New Hope (volume: 10, average: 3400) for a lark. I'll do something more properly in October, once we get a bit more downward pressure on the markets

>>51114069
We aren't experiencing hyperinflation in most of the west, stay in your containment thread
>OH MY GOD INFLATION IS 9 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR IT'S HYPER INFLATION REEEEEE
Seriously, stay in your containment threads
>>>/pmg/
>>>/pol/setf

This is the start of the September dump ain't it

Anyone have a crystal ball regarding home prices in the next few years?

>>51115094
Needs a zoomer pointing to every drop saying THE HOUSING MARKET IS ABOUT TO CRASH

>>51115138
kek. I bought my beginner house in 2012 and been praying those people were right every day since 2018.
I have really, really, really, outgrown that beginner house but can't stomach the $600,000 price that was $375,000 a few years ago.

IT YOGURT FU?

>>51115296
Im currently trying to get my mom to hold onto hers. It just needs some big foundation repair but the loan on it is like 33% and I can take over a lot of this if we get the work done. Housing market even in my shitty area is a NIGHTMARE.

>>51115405
I get the same vibes as 2007
>housing has become unaffordable for most
>those who have it worship it like a golden calf
>those who need it panic and overpay
>everyone pretends this is the ground floor
>prices crash
>people wake back up to reality
>prices slashed in half
>everyone crying about being underwater or bankrupt b/c they were dumb and stupid.

>Fed crashing this economy with no survivors edition
Who is this OP?

>>51110573
CORN has been a lifeline for me. I regret not opening a position for WEAT, however.

>>51115094
On paper it won't seem like a crash but it won't climb as fast as the commodities used to build them. New homes, on new lots have many factors that I don't think are priced in correctly. The future bulldozer is supposed to be running on solar or some silly shit in the next decade. So the costs of clearing for roads and infrastructure in new residential areas will be much higher as well. How many of these peripheral variables are overlooked or not priced in correctly? I saw lumber skyrocket from a mile away but there aren't any osb or cdx futures so I just stacked physical building materials off Craigslist and fb marketplace so I had a stash when it happened. Building new homes is hindered chiefly by regulations, permits, fees, etc. We built a cabin with 2x6 walls from lumber milled on site from trees grown on the property. 12k top to bottom for materials. Fuck the state

Down 0.5%. Could be worse, was even up for a while but end of day got fucked. Was having a really bad day and wasn't even looking at markets, ofc it dumps the moment I'm not looking. Would have taken profits in BTU otherwise, I guess I should have put some sell orders earlier, usually just decide on the moment. Shorting tech really helping here. End blogpost

Nice opinion piece from our boy Javier Blas

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-26/european-energy-crisis-listening-to-electricity-traders-is-very-very-scary

I’m going on a bike tour of Europe and Northern Africa this winter, should be interesting to see all this go down firsthand. I might visit Trillion SASB field along the way, we will see..

>>51115405
>oan on it is like 33%
Equity loan? Payday loan? Atlantic city loan shark?
33% of what over how long?
Many banks are reeling in equity lines of credit. Maybe they know these assets are overvalued and want to minimize their risks

Can someone give me some trillion info and why they are based? Keep it on the low down so smg doesn’t find out about it until it already 10x

>>51115476
>I get the same vibes as 2007
Fuck your vibes. I was around in 2008 and began my career as a banker in 2010 just in time to "workout" all the shitty loans made in the boom years.
>There aren't enough houses in the United States to keep up with population growth
>Housing starts are crashing due to rising mortgage rates and soaring material costs and soaring inflation
Which means demand for housing is increasing while the drivers of affordability are soaring. This means fewer houses that are less affordable. People that want families can't afford them and poor people don't give a shit so they're making more babies anyway. This means there is both pent up demand for housing (from responsible people) and increasing demand for housing (from poor people).

There are two factors leading to a drop in prices at this exact moment in time - mortgage rates are increasing which causes the price of homes to stop increasing at as fast as a rate. Notice I didn't say "decrease;" I said "not increase as fast." The second factor is the recession/bubble plateauing. Notice I didn't say bursting.

Housing prices - after this momentary lull while the Hawkish Fed increases interest rates - will resume their decade long march ever higher because:
>Not enough new homes are being built at this moment due to the factors explained above
>Demand for housing is not decreasing; demand is just being pent up; babies are still being born

Also, your 2007 "vibes" can fuck off because 2008 was a systemic problem with the banking system, their capital structure, their lending standards (dead people were getting loans), etc. None of that is happening right now. Banks are extremely well capitalized and dead people are not getting mortgage loans. Not 2008..coming from a banker.

>>51113267
Uranium, Oil & US (but not Euro) Natgas equities. Buy as the S&P500 does its next leg down over the next 2-6 weeks. Buy the fear.

Copper news this week looks interesting, output outlook is down for a lot of companies. China wants copper but cant seem to keep hold of imports.

https://www.mining.com/web/chinese-copper-giant-maike-seeks-help-with-liquidity-issues/

https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-lowers-2022-copper-production-outlook/

>>51117133
why not euro natgas? Vermilion is making bank

>>51118113
Because it's already priced in. When the Freeport LNG terminal comes back online in November/December, US natgas prices will normalize.

>>51115747
Why's that? They both seem to perform similarly (and down over the last few months)

>>51118132
The hell it is priced in. Vermilion would be below 2 P/E next year at these prices. Also Henry Hub won't normalize it will keep going up due to the price arbitrage in Europe. There is no reason to not be invested in both. EU natgas is priced at about 9x the US prices right now and will probably settle somewhere between €100-200/MWh and US prices will probably settle somewhere between $10-20/mmBtu. Both incredibly high historically speaking, excellent margins for producers. Far from normal prices

>>51113319
Interesting. I haven't been charting that one. I'll look at it.

>>51118113
I like trill

>>51118647
>>51118579
>>51113319
Trillion rundown?

>>51118206
>Also Henry Hub won't normalize it will keep going up due to the price arbitrage in Europe.
Not him, but >>51118132 may have a point. I watched TTF gas prices go up the equivalent of $7 MMBTu in a single afternoon and Henry Hub declined slightly. Left a bad taste in my mouth.

>>51090400
Still bullish on Bayhorse ? lol

Does the US limit the export of refined products due to low distillate inventories on the east coast?

>>51118938
I did acknowledge that TTF will likely correct, but it will still stay much higher than Henry Hub. There is no reason to not invest in both

>>51116990
shut up reddit nigger.

>>51116972
Here's some stuff to start out. I'm all in on trillion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lasWvoCyUI&t=743s
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sY2qGqwv5V0m8mXJIIC8yJkQepvue0GJ1BctAbRUNb8/edit#gid=0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxjHgF4Ewv8

>>51102356
Shut the fuck up PANMAN, they already froze bank accounts and arrested people over political affiliation and nobody batted an eye

NWO sews compliance and positive sentiments toward all evils, Canadians are dumb as fuck

>>51119799
That is VERY true! However, you dont think those in the investment world, the ones the Canadian government are well beholden to, wouldnt know well in advance of a government take over of major industries? To be honest, if that sort of thing is being contemplated at all, the Canadian gov would be in a pretty untenable position and anyone with major money would probably have already pulled out ages ago. If were talking about a flash instant freeze on investments or physical property on mining though I still really dont see it happening. They will gladly do it to the general public, which is absolutely evil, but they wont do it to their buddies / corporate masters.

random id get

>>51119932
Didn't stop them in 1980.

>>51119956
crap your right too, the 1980s had similar serious inflation issues too, its partly why the gov at the time went with the National Energy Program. Thats something that I totally forgot about, probably because it was so short lived, but yes the Liberal government at the time did nationalize the energy sector. I am not so sure though that the situation would be the same though, lobbying for the energy sector is far higher now than it ever was back in the 1980s, to add to that the government then wasnt very popular, it created the rift of "East Vs West we have today for example. The Trudeau gov is more popular than that government (probably but not by much), but the influence the energy sector has over his government is far greater. Could they get away with a nationalization campaign in todays political climate? Probably not, it would likely start major riots in the west, possibly even into BC. It wouldnt be popular at all.

>>51102230
>address
Address? you think there is actually a mill? It should be easy to find in such a small town. I mean with all they hype for this new project, it would be easy to lookup the building permit and get the address.

According the news the mill was processing "50 - 60 tonnes per day" while at the same time they expected the same mill to begin operations in "slightly more than 90 days" all the while no building permit to construct the mill had been issued, even though it was processing 50 to 60 tonnes a day already. See how that works?

If you want to make some money file a class action suit for fraud against the cowboy.

Where is silver anon to explain all this bullshit?

>>51116990
>There aren't enough houses in the United States to keep up with population growth

>>51120087
I suppose if i am a little worried, those with something really at stake would be ready to bail much sooner. I could see it happen, but i'd be buying physical at that point not dabbling in gold stonks.

WHEN I FIND ALL OF THE REASONS!

>>51121598
The reasons that silver isn't mooning, that is

The governments are just going to screw us, commodities go up energy goes up and they point the finger at the people who extract them and tax the shit out of you. They won’t ever let us have nice things

NOO BUY MY SCHIZO METAL

Shill me your best tickers

Cool infographic courtesy of Skyharbour Resources

Miners seem to not have followed the rest of the market.
Is it time?

>>51121764
SALT
VUL

>>51118938
>>51118132
You shouldn't be invested if you don't understand the market. US nat gas goes down if LNG exports are disrupted and for the same reason EU nat gas prices go up. Also there is no way the arb goes away any time soon unless Russia decides to pump more gas. ATM they are burning the gas they don't sell. Arb doesn't go away because the LNG export AND import capasities are too low. Short term if exports are disrupted, the price of US nat gas can take heavy hits because there is very limited gas storages and suddenly gas marked for export is sold to the domestic market.

If you really want to play nat gas arbs between continents, I suggest US based fertilizer producers (nat gas is an imput cost to fertilizers usually, the US has a ridiculous competitive edge here). You can ship solid stuffs much more easier than LNG

>>51120087
>>51121285
If shit really hits the fan (e.g. gold is monetized again), risk of nationalization of gold and silver mines are very legit. They won't do it willy nilly, but in such a historic event they could get away with murder because they would need gold. Everyone would. And by the time they are doing it, the well connected would dump their holdings to retail. But normally, it is like PANMAN says, it would severely damage the reputation and mining industry of Canada. But in this case, every country would likely be doing some level of nationalization or increasing royalties.

>>51122380
>Miners seem to not have followed the rest of the market.
They didn't?

>>51121764
>VET
european natgas + oil, big increase in sales and many hedges falling off going into 2023
>BIR.TSE
+80% US natgas unhedged, sales increasing about 10% next year, ~6% div yield in 2023
>NPK.TSE (getting US listing soon)
potash equivalent fertilizer in Brazil, capacity and sales increasing rapidly, if everything goes well they'll be the biggest producer in Brazil in a few years' time

>>51123455
>You shouldn't be invested if you don't understand the market. US nat gas goes down if LNG exports are disrupted and for the same reason EU nat gas prices go up. Also there is no way the arb goes away any time soon unless Russia decides to pump more gas. ATM they are burning the gas they don't sell. Arb doesn't go away because the LNG export AND import capasities are too low. Short term if exports are disrupted, the price of US nat gas can take heavy hits because there is very limited gas storages and suddenly gas marked for export is sold to the domestic market.
I guess anons got a bit mixed up. But to be forward-looking, US natgas will probably continue closing the gap with Euro gas as LNG shipments increase. I expect both to remain high for the foreseeable future, subject to change if US shale starts going into overdrive again
>If you really want to play nat gas arbs between continents, I suggest US based fertilizer producers (nat gas is an imput cost to fertilizers usually, the US has a ridiculous competitive edge here). You can ship solid stuffs much more easier than LNG
This is an interesting point. I hadn't thought about that. Which companies produce a lot of ammonia? Even with US natgas prices being high it's still a lot cheaper to make ammonia in the US than elsewhere due to the natgas arbitrage. That's a really good thing for whatever company makes and sells ammonia

>>51124661
>>51123455
Or better yet, Canadian companies. AECO is even cheaper than Henry Hub right now

>>51121764
Become a Canachad

Anyone else think oil companies are not following price anymore? Oil dropped and remained under 100 for a good while but miners barely budged. I think people are not fooled by the paper.

>>51124680
NGTL was designed to transfer gas from all over to major centres like Edmonton and Calgary. The infrastructure is not well suited for long distance transport of gas. TCPL will probably not fix it and the federal government doesn't seem keen on investing in export infrastructure. The only thing I see making AECO jump is a cold winter.

>>51125260
That's great news for any and all Canadian ammonium producers using AECO as feedstock and selling the fertilizer in the global markets. Does anybody know any ammonium producers?

>>51125745
OK so from some quick research, CF and NTR have ammonia/nitrogen production going on. MOS only has phosphate and potash. I'll have to find more and start looking into this more.

>>51125252
Market probably never expected oil to stay that high.

>>51125854
If a company makes 20% cashflow instead of 30% on long duration assets I don't think there's much reason for it to drop in valuation that much. But that's just a hunch from me.

Anyone has an updated thesis on scandium?

I´ve been looking for more info but it´s apparently darker than uranium. Only company that i know of is NioCorp Developments Ltd. NB.TO.

>>51125854
>>51125876
Also Europeans are burning oil for electricity

>>51126016
How inelastic is the demand for diesel?

>>51126034
I think it's seasonal with demand usually going up during summers but there will probably be more demand this winter than usually due to the aforementioned energy generation. But as far as I know diesel is used mostly in transportation so the question to ask would be whether there will be more shipping or not maybe?

>>51126074
I'm seeing the American inventories similar to their winter seasonal lows in the 80s before natural gas was more commonly used for heating. The 2-1-1 spreads seem to be diverging from the 3-1-1 ones.

>>51126123
>The 2-1-1 spreads seem to be diverging from the 3-1-1 ones.
what are these?

>>51113319
>Trillion is overbought and has been riding the 18 day bollinger band for a week now. Pullback to ~.34? That's how it looks to me.

i'll buy that dip

>>51126034
Tugboats, support equipment, bulldozers, and dump trucks will be all electric in two weeks
Just ask big Bob. Regulations are a good thing. Big govt is a good thing. Starvation is a good thing

>>51114440
By the time textbook hyperinflation started in Weimar, the currency was already worthless. Hyperinflation only wiped out the last couple %s from 98% loss to 100% loss.

>>51127511
Most people as retarded as him think that prices doubling in 5 years isn't an issue because sudans prices double every 5 months. It's not worth arguing or even discussing it with them. For them the music will never stop playing. When they are lined against the wall waiting for the bullet, they'll still think everything is normal. Not worth the effort

>>51125252
yeah, oil sold off but the oil producers didn't really sell off that much. SM, Athabasca, NOG, etc are still holding strong

>>51127511
>>51127812
That's pretty cool. Back to your containment now

>>51129014
Athabasca showed some good production numbers from its Leismer asset. That may be why?

Anybody subbed to Gary Savage? Does his subscription renew a month from purchase or at the beginning of every month? I want to sub now but not if I'll get billed again in 4 days.

Red here. Just assfucked some renewable energy fag behind walmart. Anyway, the charts are looking good. Go all in on oil and latex. Red over and out.

Total aryan victory bump

>>51131961

>>51130378

Rolling for Gayhorse going bk

For anyone familiar with copper stocks, do you think COPX has decent holdings?
I'm thinking getting a position in copper and wondering if I can just buy this.

>>51132231
I'm not super familiar. I'd just go get a chart of the largest copper stocks on finviz and get an idea on how much of it is large cap vs small cap. Personally, I think the large cap trade for most commodities is getting less lucrative while small caps still have a LOT to run but I'm sure COPX is fine.

>>51132231
seems to have quality names for the most part. I like that it has 5% in Ivanhoe since that's got a lot of growth to it as well. I don't really invest in ETFs but this one has good exposure to copper imho

>>51129015
This is the containment thread niglet. Lurk moar
>lassenfromthewest.jpg

>>51130019
I'm subscribing within the next two weeks.

>>51130378
Top kek. Not gay though.

Bump

>>51132783
I just don't want to get double billed because I know some sites are like that, guess I'll have to email him if no one here already is subbed

I had one of my very rare and very vivid dreams last night that Athabasca Oil plummeted to .44 and I slurped the shit out of it. I was awoken by police radios as my neighbour got raided lol and I checked my phone and the battery was at 44%. What does it mean, schizobros?

>>51136922
you'll drink battery acid in the near future

Bump
>>51130019
>>51136448
I emailed him and turns out it's billed the same day of the month that you purchase, not at the beginning so I have just bought a subscription.

So is gold and silver a meme?

Prices dumping even with high inflation. I thought the whole point was to protect purchasing power?

T. Brainlet

>>51138925
dollar milk is shaking so gold doesn't look that good in USD. Clear uptrend in most other currencies like EUR and GBP though. Right now Dollar is just raping everything
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-euros.html
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html