/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>51052574
And im still doing it

>>51052574
>The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.

>>51052574
>>51053445
VINU LESSONS
>Don’t time the market.
>Don’t underestimate modern dip buyers.
>Buy businesses for less than what they’re worth.
>Don’t time the market.

>>51052574
>>51053270
>>51053461
Agree, if you only did 3. you will be very successful, there is literally nothing else you need to do. The one benefit a bear market will bring is that many businesses will be selling for less than they are worth

>>51053461
I disagree completely with 1.

Buffett claims to be completely macro and market agnostic. Meanwhile he secretly tells others at Sun Valley aka "summer camp for billionaires" when he thought the market was crazy overvalued and about to crash. He tells others to never touch derivatives, meanwhile he sold put options on the S&P during the height of GFC fears.

Munger spent 75% of his cash to buy banks pretty near the absolute bottom in the 08 crisis. He could have bought WAY earlier if it was just buying below intrinsic value.

I believe the best investors have a keen sense of intrinsic value AND when the economy is in trouble.

>>51053468
A few things:

1) When Buffett talks about market prices being crazy, he’s generally talking about his investable universe. It’s certainly possible he has some special insight about market sentiment that others don’t, although I wouldn’t bet on it. 2) Buffett has been selling puts on large indices for a very long time, not just during one specific time period. Buffett also doesn’t sell puts in the way that most retail investors do. He sells extremely long-dated (10 - 20 years), over-the-counter puts to large institutions that want to own a diversified portfolio of insurance hedges against long term macro disaster scenarios. Because of the massive time scales, I don’t think it’s fair to call that macro timing. It’s a relatively small percentage of Berkshire’s cash alternatives portfolio and has been for a long time. 3) It’s not just a matter of buying below intrinsic value; it’s about buying the best value net of alternatives. If multiple opportunities are below intrinsic value, then marginal dollars should generally be invested in the best opportunities. Inherent in that is a hurdle that must be overcome. Buffett and Munger rarely buy at the absolute bottom; they buy when the opportunity is better than anything else available and is also better than what they think they should be able to earn.

>>51053470
It's no accident and macro ignorance that a huge portion of his buys recently are oil and insurance right now. To think otherwise is failing to read between the lines. All those companies were available at lower prices last year and he had the cash to make the same purchases then. Clearly the war and supply shock on oil, as well as the huge benefit to insurers from the recent pivots by the Fed have some impact on this. Only a fool completely ignores the macro environment.

He doesn't have special insight on investor sentiment, but he can certainly see the writing on the wall that a party is about to end regarding fundamentals (those are two very different things). He may not know exactly when but he knew dotcom was bursting soon. He understood negative cashflows were going to hurt even more as debt costs were rising. Not too different from today.

The fact that he sells 15 year puts doesn't matter, it was still a short position on elevated vol during a period of extreme fear. It's also very smart for retail to short volatility on dips with CSP's or their mathematical equivalent CC's. Bear and choppy markets like today are the only periods where buy-write strategies actually outperform owning shares outright. You can treat them like limit buys at the price you want. Worst case you buy a company below your estimate of intrinsic value.

>>51053468
Buffett claims to be completely macro and market agnostic

Almost certain Buffett claims to be exactly the opposite of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1o0k5RLbsQ

He flat out says he doesn't care, "AT ALL", about macro factors.

Buffett doesn't care much at all about macro and uses the market like Ben Graham describes in Intelligent Investor.

>>51053482
You are aware that what people say publicly and do privately sometimes contradict yes? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction and only for gambling he says, yet he has no problem dabbling in them when they are extremely mispriced.

>>51053461
1, 3, and 4 are inconsistent.

"Don't time the market" is a mantra for passive investing. Timing the market is however a hallmark of active investing, which is where the wisdom of #3 comes into play.

The only time you buy is when #3 is true. This is a kind of market timing.

>>51053461
Is buying business for less than what they’re worth literally timing the market? As a value investor, you should have a target price for a company you want to buy, then you wait for it to hit that price (to buy it (timing the market).

To give an extreme example, Tesla has obviously been overpriced during this tech bull run, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good company. At some point it could be underpriced and still be a good company, and at that time a value investor will buy it. That is timing the market because you are waiting for the price to be under valued.

Not trying to time the market is fine if you are talking about broad indexes, but not when valuing companies you want to buy.

>>51053461
Why do you have to write twice the same advice, the same advice?

>>51053461
If you are investing for decades into the future, go ahead and buy Google. If you are investing money you want for some purpose 3 years from now, keep it in cash.

>>51053501
I dont how much time i will invest, but its very hard to beat the market if i dont buy cheap

>>51053501
It's already pretty pessimistic right now. If you hold off from buying too long, you'll miss your opportunity.

Some really great prices on strong tokens out there right now, don't see the point in waiting considering how bear markets tend to be short lived to begin with. I'm buying the same way I always do now that VINU is yielding 5% on cost of equity instead of 4% when prices were higher... lots of them are already down 25% on the year despite improving fundamental performances. I'm not going to wait in the hopes they go down more to catch a bottom.

Wow what a fast thread. Can one of you boy geniouses kindly tell a fren what to do with his money in the short term?

>>51052574
I'd have to agree with this, looking at what Allianceblock is doing, being able to launch 2 major products in the bearish market. Of course i expect a lot of impact on ALBT price when the bulls returns.

>>51052574
ive done better in this market than what i did when there was a buying frenzy

>>51052574
The only way I've been earning so far is from my staked DAI on Spool, which allows me access multiple generators with that one deposit, though the returns still can't compare what I make in the bullish market.

>>51052574
"Suck my dick.
- Ron Jeremy"