/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50792547
It's to lure morons into the market. Jim Cramer basically did the whole "buy buy buy" schpiel om cnbc.... And you know what that means...

>>50792547
i hope so anon
i still want to accumulate too
rose is up 2x and it pains me

yeah still very early in the bear market, don't worry

>>50792547
Nothing more than a bear rally, i expect multiple in the future. just keep accumulating fren

I wrote a whole thing on this that noone replied to. So I'll copy paste it.

here, I'll be nice. the jobs report that came out today showed a higher unemployment than expected. that means the fed has more wiggle room to increase rates. there are higher demand for workers than there are willing and able workers. now, consider the fact that the unemployment rate ignores disenfranchised workers: that means that the unemployment rate isn't a sum figure, that means it has a velocity component, for lack of a better term.

The fed treats the unemployment rate as a primary metric for policy, so if the velocity of unemployed workers isn't increasing, then policy has been unsuccessful. The cost of labor eats shit during every economic "crises," as the damage of inflation has to end somewhere, so it always ends on the plate of labor because companies and the wealthy aren't allowed to.

So what can we expect moving forwards? The next market event is the CPI figures. Energy costs have decreased, food costs have decreased, consumer discretionary is oversupplied with goods so it will decrease from now and well into the future.

To me this means we are past peak inflation. I think that's why the market is rallying as it is. We are pricing in the fact that the fed has passed the hurdle. In addition, the daily RSI on SPX is high, but with the momentum we've gathered, it will likely become overbought before we retrace significantly. On the flip side, employment velocity has not received the damage that's intended for it.

Now, as Arthur Hayes mentioned in his recent article, capitalism as it is represented today cannot survive if asset prices are deflating. Therefore we should observe the 2 policy drivers opposing each other as they develop:

>employment velocity vs asset prices

If asset prices, well represented by commercial and private real estate, starts to crash harder than unemployment velocity increases, then the fed will pivot. Inflation is barely a factor in the equation at this point.

Now what I learned very painfully is that you can't be static while the market moves. I thought I could hold through all this but I can't. I have some static stacks that I don't touch, but I can't stomach the downturns like I could when I was flat broke.

I expect bullishness to continue, but at the same time we are approaching overbought indicators, and now the fed has a reason to continue rate hikes beyond what has been already stated. Once housing starts to dip significantly though, pivot is engaged. I would bet my life savings on it.

So reasons for this week to be bullish is bullish momentum and a bullish CPI report. I thought it might be a sell the rumor buy the news, but looks like the market has no patience for playing that game.

Great posts, friends. Giving me some hope that we've still got time to make it.

>>50792807
Great analysis, thanks anon. Anyone got any counterarguments against this logic? We can build robust arguments by stress-testing.

>>50792547
The market hasn't figured out that it took 2 years to get rates this high.

>>50792633
Ohh fuck that shit. Can you link?

>>50793048
>pic
% change seems like a useless metric considering the rate was near-0 in real terms.

>>50792919
Yeah, my counter is this. The Fed not only hasn't started quantitative tapering, they have not even stopped quantitative easing yet. When you're finished pondering that, consider pic related. They stopped reporting M1 supply just after this screenshot so who actually know how high it is now, but we know for a certainty that the dollar did a 5x in supply in just about a year and a half. That's shitcoin tier inflation, and there is no way we've gotten through the effects of that with a few percentage points of interest rate increases and an 8.5% CPI.

>>50792829
>>50792807

so to confirm,
the reports that come out later this month on the 25 august will probably be the catalyst for the FED to increase rates significantly.
This increase does not seem to be priced in atm? RSI indicators seems to coincide with this news.
So we should expect a big dump around 25th august?

Does anyone have an idea why the main alts are pumping? Usually they pump alongside ETH but this time ETH stayed still while they've rocketed. There've been no major announcements in the last week for either Rose or Avax. Something fishy is going on.

>>50793339
Bitcoin is unpumpable right now so some whales are using alts to bait retail into providing liquidity.

>>50793210
That's true, but we are either in recession or about to hit recession. Even with inflated money supply, prices will go down. Also, where did all that money go that they printed? I don't think it's in the average american's hands. It probably went to big businesses. Where are they putting their money?

>>50793339
With Rose, the Meta partnership was re-announced (who knows why) and apparently a lot of people missed it the first time.

>>50793247
CPI comes out August 10. Will probably be a catalyst for the bulls. September 20-21 is the next FOMC meeting, so no Fed interference until then.

Course, bear in mind that the "Inflation Reduction Act" which prints several hundred billion dollars, and I'm sure there's other shenanigans in the pipeline. Gov does what it does best: debase the currency. Wouldn't be shocked if inflation starts accelerating sooner than expected

fuck i should have bought at 18k i feel so fucking sad. could have already had a 3x on multiple planned shitcoins that i had.

>>50793417
Rose actually already pumped for that last week. It crabbed for a while, and now has pumped again alongside Avax - but seemingly for no reason this time.
So it's had +50% or something 2 times in 2 weeks.
>>50792807
I was so sleepy when I read this the first time and it made sense, now it doesn't lmfao.
>The cost of labor eats shit during every economic "crises,"
You mean that it labor becomes cheaper?
>because companies and the wealthy aren't allowed to.
What do you mean by this?
>On the flip side, employment velocity has not received the damage that's intended for it.
It's true that employment is good, but why do they need to damage this velocity? As long as inflation goes down, it doesn't matter if employment is "too high".

>>50793447

im talking about the PCE that happens august 26.
If that shows things are still good for people we probably see a large rate hike. + arn't they doing something with their balance sheet starting September?

>>50793509
Oh I hadn't looked at charts today. Goddamn it, I sold Rose at .09 to do a little swing. I'm going to kill myself now as this will surely never come down.
But yeah, no idea why it's pumping.

>>50793509
>You mean that it labor becomes cheaper?
nta but duh salaries and jobs go down before profit margins
companies cut the fat when times are hard and it's easier to trim wages than optimise more
>What do you mean by this?
the rich heavily heavily influence the government whether it's through lobbying or other means and they directly control corporations
do you think they're going to lobby for more corporation taxes and closing loopholes or let the everyman suffer?
>it doesn't matter if employment is "too high".
you seem quite naive
consider the perspective of an employer instead of an employee or a populist
if wagies have it too good then they get to make more demands and expect more
it is also true that better wages drive inflation more than corporate profits for various reasons

>>50793525
I swung my rose at 0.087$ a week ago and seeing some anon brag about selling at 0.09 made me rebuy. Was this you?

>>50793447
>print billions to stop inflation
These faggots cannot be serious.

>>50793382
You're right, hardly anything made it down to us. Take a look at executive compensation last year, it will blow your mind. Basically I see it as a payout, a parachute for the ultrarich for what's about to happen. The US economy is caught in a cycle of spending and debt that it can't escape, at least not without severe austerity. And for some reason we're refusing to take our medicine and instead printing even more money and changing the definition of what a recession is. Meanwhile there's going to be bread lines in a few years.

>>50793556
Thanks for this, anon.
>it is also true that better wages drive inflation more than corporate profits for various reasons
Yep, but if the next CPI shows that inflation has peaked then there's no need for continued large rate-hikes. 75bps is unironically priced in (it was priced in when the GDP report came out recently). No way they're going to go to 100bps for the next one, and anything less than 75 will make the market pump again.

>>50793509
>You mean that it labor becomes cheaper?
yeah, fed increases rates, makes money more expensive. intent is to reduce demand for labor, and prevent the "wage price spiral"

>What do you mean by this?
Companies and wealthy are not allowed to lose, I miss words sometimes.

>It's true that employment is good, but why do they need to damage this velocity? As long as inflation goes down, it doesn't matter if employment is "too high".
I've looked at policy drivers for the fed. Based on what I saw, as in actual action, the first rate hikes happened when there was an extreme demand for labor driving up the cost of labor. Stocks, commodities, and housing didn't matter until the cost of labor increased too much.

The rationale behind it is if wages are higher, then there will be increased spending and therefore increased demand on goods/services, further driving up prices. And yeah, I'll say there's some logic there, kinda like if you were airdropping stimulus checks and massive unemployment payouts to a large portion of the population. It just gets spent. Big demand on static supplies.

But I believe that no matter which way you cut it, inflating the money supply and debasing the currency has permanent consequences. What is stocks/crypto/housing but a blowout valve for the massive amounts of money being created? The buck has to stop somewhere. Someone has to take the fall so we can have money printing without massive inflation.

I'm sure you've seen picrel before. What happened in 1973?

>>50793627
To your second to last point, is the US trying to make other countries, specifically China, hold our bags? It sure seems like they're intentionally driving up inflation (look at this M1 supply, my god) and doing next to nothing so curb it. In doing so, they might have ruined the American dream. I don't know if housing prices ever go down to the point where someone who did not own a home could afford to buy.

>>50793627
Great post, thanks for taking the time to explain.

>>50793715
I started writing something out but desu, I don't have the knowledge base to analyze international markets. Tbh I don't know what the strategy for China is other than making the USD more expensive and reducing demand for Chinese goods. Here's what I started with:

I believe that Americans are leveraging finance as an economic weapon. Raising rates on the USD has vastly spanning effects across the world. Think of the USD as BTC, and other fiat currencies as crypto alts. The base pair of international fiat is the USD. The USD facilitates international trade settlement.

You can see the fallout in countries that borrow USD. The IMF lends in USD to minor nations with minor currencies, and those nations must pay their debts back in USD. During times of massive inflation, when rates hike, demand for USD increases. USD is needed for trade and debt repayment to participate in the system so countries must acquire more of it because you're not going to accept the shitcoin created by some shitnation that’s been printing at the same rate as the dollar or more, you want to trade in the base pair.

So when the USD starts dramatically increasing in value, that causes alot of problems especially for nations with an account deficit: it's more expensive to pay bills, it's more expensive to trade, and there's very little juice to squeeze out of their shitcoins.

>>50793627
wasnt the birth control pill introduced or some shit

People act like there’s supposed to be consistent dumping for years. That’s almost never the case. Stocks dump hard a couple of months then start returning to trend.

Crypto hasn’t died like it did in 2017, so multiple years of being actually dead won’t happen. Well either continue recovering or crab for another 6 months or so.

>>50792678
You will be up to a surprise if you really think of what you said.

>>50793627
>What happened in 1973?
Jews

CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
>CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
>CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
>CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
CLEAN IT UP JANNIES
>CLEAN IT UP JANNIESSSS

>>50792678
It's been the longest bear market in crypto history....

>>50792777
Based and Godpilled digits.

>>50792547
>>50792645

The most transparent fake Rose shill ever, kys

>>50795362
Lmao, I'm not a rose shill. I mentioned rose and the others because that's all that my portfolio consists of (all alts).
This thread is about hoping that the price comes down a bit more so we can accumulate, it's not about trying to pump the price up.

>pumping
Kek.