/biz/ - Business & Finance

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/dont-sweat-the-inverted-yield-curve-no-one-really-knows-what-it-means/

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-yieldcurve-idUSN3018493920080130

https://www.cnbc.com/id/23454612

We tried to warn them.

nigger sneed
-/tv/

>>50771765
DTE on the implosion?

“I think it sometimes portends a recession, sometimes not,” says Marshall E. Blume, finance and management professor at Wharton. This time, it probably does not, he adds. “All the forecasts are quite favorable. There aren’t any real excesses in the economy at the current time, and you usually think of recession as a tonic to the economy, to undo excess.”

Pretty much read the same thing from mainstream articles today.

>It's different this time

It always happens the same way.

The Big drawdown in Dotcom and GFC happened over the Autumn btw.

>>50772167
First report of an inverting yield curve came in Dec 27 2005. First report of a flattening yield curve this time around was around Nov 2021.

>>50772216
>There aren’t any real excesses in the economy at the current time
>housing market
>consumer spending hasn’t budged despite bad consumer sentiment
>used cars selling for more than their were originally bought for

>>50771765
>yield curve
You really think any of the zoomers that browse this board even know what that means?

>>50772403
It's beautiful, isn't it?

>>50772403
The question is if we've passed the point the market means anything at all. Remember how it was with pissing out trillions in fiat previously, it didn't budge inflation. Now it has moved inflation worse than ever but the resulting drop in markers like jobs isn't coming.

Isn't there some point where all the numbers are so much bullshit it really becomes an alternate reality that doesn't care what real life actually looks like?

>>50772231
Just came up with this gem.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/94300-unemployment-rates-recession-periods-and-stock-market-prices

>>50771765
dude it's just a vibecession

>>50772479
the numbers always adjust back to reality its a matter of time

>>50772428
What's a yield curve?

what do you gain from persuading people?

Does no one remember the yield curve inverting in like 2019?
I remember talking about it with a professor and we both thought that a recession was 1.5-2 years away

>>50775375
it's probably a morale boost for beras. They've been getting fucked the past two months.

>>50772479
I actually believe this - the shift of morals from a basis of natural law to relativism has extended it's arm to the economy. Aristotle always said that economics is an ethic; we're now living in an artificially driven hyperreality built on nothing but sand and the whims of man.

>>50771765
These threads are such massive cope, it's not 2008 faggot things aren't the same

Anybody who says the yield curve doesn’t matter is a clown. It’s pretty basic stuff, the bond market isn’t as retarded as equities, actually you can completely ignore the price action of equities, it’s the equivalent of a 90 IQ retard. Watch the bond market and currency moves, both of which say we are going to enter a recession.

The fed influences the 2 year yield through hike expectations. The long end of the curve is influenced by growth expectations.

Fed hikes up + growth down = curve inversion. Anytime bond yields go down it’s not a good thing. The curve inverts more and more because the fed is making a policy mistake and further slamming the brakes while the car is going 75 MPH, with no ABS. The wheels of the economy lock and something breaks.

How to reverse it? Fed has to pivot, 2 year yield collapses down, 10 year drops top, but not as steeply as the 2s. The problem is… the fed can’t pivot this time so we just have to brace for impact

>>50775428
I'm bearish but I haven't been getting fucked at all because I'm highly conservative. I just pulled back my exposure. Sitting comfy.

>>50775701
>Infinite growth and no more recessions is guaranteed if we just believe hard enough :)
That's fucking retarded and you should stop posting

>>50775414
Yes, why do you think they did covid?

>>50776027
I didn't say that. What happens to a house in sand dipshit?

>>50773492
Pic rel.

>>50775414
See >>50776042

>>50775813
Good post.

>>50776280

>>50776280
>>50776288
bottom signal. right mumu bros?

Bump

>>50776530
The White House and news media would never allow a recession.