/biz/ - Business & Finance

How about you riddle this dick in your throat

You either win or you don't
50/50

>>50659282
no, it says that 1 car and 2 goats are hidden behind ONE of the three doors

that means there's another goat and a car behind that door. i won

>>50659331
wait, i mean i should switch my choice to door number one
i got confused, i thought when he reveals the goat its because thats the door i picked now i see i picked door 3

gimme door 1, i'll take both goats and the car

>>50659301
This riddle drove statisticians and math minds from all over the world crazy.

Yes you swap because you have new information and this means that you gain an advantage by switching after this new information

>>50659282
Obviously you switch. Your initial choice had a 33% chance of getting a car, if you switch you have a 50% chance of getting a car.

It's like a game show. There are three doors and only one has the new car behind it.

You pick a door. Before opening it, the host opens another door and reveals a goat behind it (to ramp up the drama and to fuck w you). He asks you if you want to switch or keep your choice

>>50659282
$10 profit

>>50659282
I get what this riddle is implying, it's saying that you have a 1/3 chance of getting the car initially. Once that door is revealed to be a goat, your chance should be 1/2 if you choose again. I don't think it matters if you choose again, basically that door was always a goat and it's irrelevant at this point and can be wiped off the slate of the original choice. If you had 100 doors, and 98 were revealed to be a goat, then yes, swapping your choice between the final two would guarantee the car. hell, even having 4 doors with 2 revealed to be a goat would warrant a switch. I don't see how this case would improve your chances though

>>50659403
no, one door has 2 goats and a car behind it. the other doors have nothing.

I call Spetnaz to blow up all the door, the car and the goats.

>>50659379
Nonsense logic

>>50659282
i don't want a goat and have a car so who cares?

>>50659455
fuck off, goats are great

>>50659429
You have a 2/3 chance of getting right if you switch vs 1/3 if you don't. It's fucking bullshit but the Bayes' solution proves it. I hate math btw.

>>50659282
Goat worth more than car ironically

>>50659476
don't get me wrong i like goats, but i don't want to own one. let them roam free.

>>50659445
It's a reddit tier pseudo-intellectual brain teaser, but the math works out.

>>50659477
If you switch you either win or lose. Not 50/50?

>>50659500
Check'd. Stop being a slave to the mexican lawn care cartel and take the goatpill.

it's 50/50 you fucking retard there are TWO doors to pick from. fucking retarded niggers

>>50659502
It's so stupid though. He was always going to reveal one of the bad doors, regardless of what you pick he would reveal one missed door.. with that in mind it truly doesn't matter. Math be damned.

>>50659282
Just pull out your gun, shoot Monty and then ride off into the sunset in your new car and goat bros.

>Verification not required

>>50659504
Think in terms of game theory. When the goatfag put you in front of the doors he had you choose. OK now he removes a door. He will NEVER pick a door with the car behind it. When you made your original bet it was on a 1/3 basis. Goatboy changes the matrix though. You now have 2 choices. Switch based off the new information will increase your odds of winning. Basically it's not like a coin flip because goat dickweed has information you have to respond to and is interfering in the process.

ok, i see now that two of the doors have goats and one of the doors has a car.

one of the doors is opened, a goat is behind it

that means two doors are left. one door has a goat and the other door has a car.

TWO DOORS
ONE WITH GOAT
ONE WITH CAR
50/50

all the scam arguments in the world don't change the odds when you have two choices and one is a winner and the other a loser. it's 50/50 period.

the trick here is some convoluted nonsense to trick you into giving in to the nonsense belief that switching doors matters. switch or do not switch your odds are 50/50 either way because there are only TWO DOORS

it's like how 2+2=4 no matter how many fancy arguments and authority figures tell you that 2+2=5 it doesnt matter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moX3z2RJAV8

its a test, will you yield basic logic to authority figures or are you mentally stronger then that

>>50659534
You low IQ mongrel. The host didn't randomly pick a fucking door to remove. There is no timeline in which he removes the car from the equation. It's a 1/3 or 2/3 probability matrix not fucking 1/2. God damn I'm glad I don't take investment advice from you retards. Also OP you're still a faggot for posting this.

>>50659534
No it’s not, because Monty isn’t randomly picking a door and happening to reveal a goat. He knows which doors have goats and which has the car. Since this isn’t a random choice, the logic of how he picks a door influences the probability. You actually have a 2/3 chance if you switch doors

>>50659604
for some context because this clip is incomplete there are 4 lights, but the cardassian torturer tells picard there are 5 lights. then asks him how many lights there are. every time picard says there are 4 lights he gets tortured. the goal being to eventually break picard, to make him truly believe there are 5 lights and to honestly say there are only 5 lights when clearly there are only 4.

>>50659618
>>50659627
you're both fucking retards.. go finish school you aped out niggers. You gaped black niggers

>>50659282
I wouldn't think about it
Just pick. Who cares if I get a car or not? I'd probably be happier with the goats.

>>50659642
once they break him, once they get him to believe there are only 5 lights. then they can get him to believe anything.

>>50659618
>There is no timeline in which he removes the car from the equation
cars are worthless, food is not. a trinket vs a meal.

>>50659604
Why do I come back here Lord. Ok let's work through this for your dumbass all nice and slow like. In the second stage there are THREE DOORS. The host is basically saying to you: Would you like to A. Make a 1/3 chance you got the original door right B. Choose from a set of 2/3 that includes a removed variable? You obviously take the 2/3 chance because it has a known informational quantity, namely the open fucking door. The only reason to stay at your door is if the host is playing game theory with you and thinks you're smart enough to know the correct answer.

>>50659649
I bet you play the lottery.

>>50659672
I know how statistics and probability work so I obviously don't you dusty crackhead nigger

>>50659665
fuck you cardassian mindslave
2 doors = 50/50
PERIOD

>>50659370
Really?
Fucking autists lol

if they can get you to believe that switching doors matters then they can get you to believe anything

2 doors, 1 with goat, 1 with car
50/50
simple as
don't let them break you

>>50659542
>It's so stupid though. He was always going to reveal one of the bad doors

yeah and when you first picked a door you had a 1/3 chance, but switching the second time means it's a 50/50 chance

retard fucks.. okay so if I get better odds when I switch doors why don't I just switch doors 5 times for a guaranteed win? Fucking idiot cunts.

>>50659684
You don't even know how periods work. You also obviously don't understand conditional probability. Don't worry midwit the big boys in life will make sure you don't hurt yourself.

Switch the doors
Choose the already open one with revealed goat.
Sex the goat.

>>50659732
inshallah brother

>>50659732
Based Taliban fucker.
>>50659689
Stare at the chart until you aren't retarded anymore.

The easier way to think of this problem is to imagine there are 100 doors, 99 with goats and 1 with the car. You pick one, and then they reveal goats behind 98 of the other doors, leaving just the one you picked and one remaining unknown door. At that point it's more clear to see how swapping improves your adds compared to your initial blind guess.

>>50659707
the act of switching your choice isnt what makes it 50 percent

>>50659745
you are a broken man who can be convinced of anything

2 doors, 1 goat, 1 car. 50/50

really need id oracles so we dont have to share the internet spaces with non whites

>>50659749
so in the end there are 2 doors
1 with a goat, 1 with a car
50/50

suck a dick mindslave

>>50659754
There are three doors in the example you limited memory, low IQ, goy. God damn the Jews are right about you all.

>>50659370
proving statistics is an imperfect model of the real world

>>50659282
You can literally just plot out all 6 possible outcomes, it's an extremely simple logic puzzle that can be brute forced this way. Assuming you always pick door 1, then the car is either between door 1, 2, or 3, and then for each scenario either you switch or you don't. So six total possible outcomes. Work them out and you'll find that yes, switching is optimal. End of discussion.

2:10
Someone should make a webm of it
https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0

>there are retards ITT that think that only by switching choices will the odds become 50/50

>>50659802
there are only 2 doors that matter because the first door is already opened.

you're asked to choose now between the two doors that are left. stick with your original choice or switch it doesnt matter. one door is winner one door is loser, thats 50/50. the already opened door doesn't change anything.

>>50659811
Here I'll do it for retard anons. I pick door 1 in each scenario:

>car is behind door 1, I don't switch
I win
>car is behind door 2, I don't switch
I lose
>car is behind door 3, I don't switch
I lose

odds of winning 1 in 3

>car is behind door 1, I do switch
I lose
>car is behind door 2, I do switch
I win
>car is behind door 3, I do switch
I win

odds of winning 2 in 3

switching is optimal

some people believe there are more then 2 sexes. more then male and female. same shit. fancy convoluted roundabout arguments from authority figures telling you the "right answer" to break you from believing the clear as day truth right in front of your eyes. its just brainwashing

How can I profit from not understanding this?

>>50659850
We're wasting breath. You know what? Fuck this shit you all are fucking dysgenic retards. I'm out.

>>50659863
Make a bot that runs this experiment a bunch and you'll see switching has an avg 2/3 win rate

>>50659845
You are wrong because you aren’t randomizing the location of the car for the second choice, it’s still in the same original position. 2nd the host isn’t going to reveal the car when opening a door. So either you guessed right the first time with a 1/3 probability which doesn’t change when he opened the door. Or there was a 2/3 chance you were wrong and the car is behind one of the other two doors, and the host then shows you which of those two it isn’t behind.

>>50659880
ok, you broke me. 2+2=5, there are more then 2 sexes, elliot page is a man, and switching doors betters your odds

>>50659907
I think your post is bait

>>50659927
winner winner chicken dinner, i was trolling the whole time. thanks for playing

>>50659936
Hmmm

Switching only works if you assume Monty reveals a goat every time before giving you a choice.
But Monty will only reveal a goat at most 2/3 of the time, so it won’t help you.
The real Monty of course made this offer much less than two thirds of the time.

>>50659282
I'd swap my gender not my choix

>>50659850
assuming its always behind the same door though
>>50659825
adding assumptions with the 99/100

>>50659282
It doesnt matter if you swap your choice and it doesnt improve your odds. The goat doesnt magically swap places with the car.

>>50659707
Act of Revealing one door automatically changes your odds to 50-50.

Game changes from 3 door game to 2 door game. 3rd door and its goats are irrelevant now. Assuming, you don't give 2 fucks about the goats. It doesn't mean that you should swap your choice, because goats in 3rd door have no relation with the car being in 2nd door or 3rd door.

It's a whole new game now. You either choose 2nd or 3rd door. There's no causal relationship.
Odds are 50-50.

>>50659379
WRONG! I wrote a thesis on this. It makes no difference if you switch, because for your last choice, there are ONLY 2 DOORS! So your odds are 50/50. Anyone who says otherwise is a complete and utter retard. Did I mention that I wrote. Thesis on this, and got funding to do a study. We ran this experiment 1,000 times, and the odds are 50/50. This was proven with the scientific method, and you are just some guy on the internet who doesn't get it. Stop wasting everyone's time with your false "theory". Unless you ACTUALLY do a study, like I did, then you can never understand, and everyone should just ignore you. Pic related is me. That's right, I am Hulk Hogan, and you are just some stupid Jabroni.

>>50659282
>this special time monty gives you a sneak peak to TWO doors instead of one
which door you pick now, /biz/?

Best /BIZ/ thread I’ve ever seen

>>50660114
if you switch it's actually a 33/33 chance

>>50659379
Is this kind of mental retardation general state of this board now?

my nigger brain needs pictures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg

>>50660128
It's same as 50-50 chance.
It's 33/66 to 33/66 odds now.
Which translates to 1 in 2 chances.
Which translates to 50-50 chance.

>>50660114
>I wrote a thesis on this
you suck lmao

100
010
001

If I pick door three all 3 times I am correct once and wrong twice. If I pick door 3 all 3 times and swap each time I am correct twice and wrong once.

>>50660149
Holy shit
YOU SHOULD SWITCH!
Fuck you faggots, even if it really is 50/50, then there is no downside to switching.
SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH! SWITCH!

By switching you exchange the initial probability of 2/3 for a goat to a 2/3 for a car.
Wihtout additional information you will be choosing a goat 2/3 of the time, which means switching after reveal will net you not-goat 2/3 of the time.
With n doors, 1 prize door and n-2 goat doors revealed you will be able to win (n-1)/n times by switching.

Ok niggers. I figured it out.

The door you picked is most likely going to be a goat (2 of 3 doors)

The door he opens is always going to be a goat.

If you stay with your choice, you're stuck with the original most likely to lose scenario.

If you switch, you'll win a lot more often than you'll lose

Let's change the numbers.

There are 100 doors.
99 have goats.
1 has a car.

You choose a door.
Odds are 1/100 that you chose the car.
98 other doors are opened revealing goats.

You have two choices:
1. Stick with the low 1/100 chance that you chose the car
2. Switch and go with the 99/100 chance that the other door is the car

Now change 100 doors to 3, and 99 goats to 2.

You have two choices:
1. Stick with the low 1/3 chance that you chose the car
2. Switch and go with the 2/3 chance that the other door is the car

>>50660214
This makes sense to me. By switching you're increasing your chances of winning

>>50659752
Think of it like this:
If you guess at random you have a 2/3 chance of fucking up and 1/3 chance of winning so 1/3 if you stay.

Then the guy opens a door, but he won't open any door he will just open one of the fail ones that you didn't choose. It's TWICE as likely you had chosen a looser door than a win as we had previously discussed, so if you just change your choice with one door down you have just a 1/3 chance of fucking up, which was the initial chance of winning.

It's not for brainlets but this is the explanaition

>>50660046
>assuming its always behind the same door though
no it literally does not assume that. it goes over every possible combination. the actual door you yourself pick to start with is immaterial, there are always 6 possible outcomes depending on which door has the car and whether you switch or not, and those outcomes have the same probabilities regardless which door you first pick. So I pick door 1 in all 6 options for simplicity's sake

>>50659701

Let me guess - the creator of the “switch” solution was a kike

The answer is 50/50. There were NEVER 3 doors. Monty is always going to eliminate 1 wrong door. In reality, there are only 2 doors to choose from, 1 right 1 wrong.

>>50660398
but your not in the old scenario anymore, regardless if you do anything

>>50660628
in his example it is

>>50659863

BASED TRUTH TELLER

>>50660214
>there is no downside
>unless you already picked the right choice

retard lol

>>50660649
WRONG
fact checkers and experts agree, switching doors improves your odds

>>50659429
It has been solved on mythbusters.

>Easiest way to think about it is
The only time you lose when switching is if you picked the car originally. Which is 1/3 lose, or 2/3 win by switching.

>>50660673

WRONG.

Fact checkers can suck my nuts. Fact checkers believe the shot is safe, climate change is real, and that one day, if you try REALLY FUCKING HARD, you’ll be a woman.

>>50659282
Goat will be worth more than a car soon when the food runs out.

>>50660649
Would you rather play Russian roulette with a 6 shooter loaded with 4 bullets or 3 bullets?

>>50660114
Based Hulk poster as always

>>50660701

Would you gargle my nuts if it had 4 cummies or 5?

>>50660149
This makes the most sense by far. 2/3 chance you have picked a goat, most games people would have picked the goat instead of the car. He has the information of one other goat and reveals it. So take these two pieces of info and your odds are much better when you switch. Any other explanation was just silly.

LISTEN RETARDED 50/50 LIMPDICK AIDSFAGGOTS GORILLA NIGGERS READ >>50659850 THEN READ >>50659850 AGAIN

YOU CAN LITERALLY MAP OUT ALL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES ON A NAPKIN YOU DONT NEED TO USE GAME THEORY OR BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OR 5-DIMENSIONAL QUANTUM PROOFS YOU CAN LITERALLY JUST DRAW THE 6 POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AND SEE FOR YOURSELF THAT SWITCHING IS OPTIMAL

IT'S NOT AN ARGUMENT THERE IS NO AMBIGUITY IT IS A SIMPLE PROBLEM WITH A SIMPLE PROVABLE SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES DRAWING GOATS AND CARS ON THE BACK OF THE IN-N-OUT RECEIPT THAT IS SITTING ON YOUR DESK IT IS VERY FUCKING STRAIGHTFORWARD

>>50660722
I don't wanna put your mama out of a job in this economy

3 coins and only 1 of those coins is heads (winner)

i hide each coin under one of 3 pokemon cards

you choose card number 3, but before i flip over your card i first flip over card number 1 (it's tails)

do you choose to keep your original choice and flip card number 3 or would you like to change your choice and instead flip card number 2

>>50660726

You’re still wrong though.

It’s 50/50. That’s the right answer. You probably took the clot shot didn’t you?

>these are the people still holding crypto

>>50660741

Shit I just got it. Never mind false alarm. You’re better off switching.

>>50659282
>>50659477
>>50659502
>>50659504
>>50659542
>>50659604
>>50659618
>>50659642
>>50659663
>>50659665
>>50659689
>>50659732
>>50659745


When you pick the first time, you have a 2/3 chance of losing. When Monty shows the goat, you still have a 2/3 chance of losing. Therefore, if you switch, you have a 2/3 chance of winning. Easy car. Get fucked losers, small brains, retards, 50/50 plebs. Suck my dick.

3 female identifying individuals, 2 trannies and 1 roastie. you must fuck one of them

i hide each person under a blanket. you must pick which blanket i pull away.

you choose for me to pull away blanket number 2, but before i do i pull away blanket number 1 revealing a naked trannie with a boner

do you choose to keep your original choice to pull away blanket number two. or do you instead choose to look under blanket number 3

>>50660777

For anyone struggling with this, the example of picking from 1M doors, you’re almost guaranteed to have picked wrong. Now Monty eliminated all but yours plus 1 other door. It’s nearly a guarantee that the other door is the right one. Bingo bongo.

FUCK. What if I’m picking the wrong coins this cycle too???

>>50659375
>>50659379
These are the correct answers. It's a bit of a mindfuck but it's true. He could have opened the other door that you didn't pick. But he didn't so now it's a higher chance the car is behind that one.

To all the "it's 50/50!!1" tards, assume you are just picking out of 2 goats and 1 car doors without anything else happeing.
What's the chance to win? It's 1/3.

Now one goat door is opened, but you aren't allowed to swap.
What's the chance to win? Does it become 50%? That's the great filter right here.
It becomes easier when you understand that at no point does it become 50%, regardless of revealing and swapping.
When you have already picked your door at 1/3 chance, does revealing anything really changes the outcome of your 1/3 chance pick? You are still stuck with 1/3, it doesn't become fifty/fifty.

>>50659282
>imagine there were a million doors

3 unlocked ledger wallets

on one wallet is a thousand bitcoins, on the other two wallets a thousand xrp. you can keep one wallet

you select wallet number one

i plug wallet number 2 into a computer and reveal 1000 xrp

do you keep your choice of wallet number one, or do you switch to wallet number two

>>50660777
cant argue with trips of truth.

3 mystery bottles, 2 of them contain piss, 1 contains apple juice. you have to drink one of them.

you select bottle number 2

i crack open bottle number 3 and drink my own piss

do you keep your choice of bottle number 2, or do you switch to bottle number 1

>>50660856

I slowly back the fuck away from you and run out the door.

>>50660839
>>50660856
ooh, now do one involving 6 million loaves of bread.

>>50660856
lets go through the options

if bottle number 2 is apple juice and you don't switch. congrats you get to drink apple juice. LOSE (your odds were 1 in 2)

if bottle number 2 is piss. congrats you get to drink my piss WIN (your odds were 1 in 2)

>>50660882

there are 3 ovens turned off, you have to turn one of the ovens on.

two of the ovens contain 6 million loaves of bread, one of the ovens contains 6 million jews

you select to turn oven number 3 on

instead i turn oven number 1 on, and the smell of freshly baked bread wafts into the air.

do you keep your choice to turn on oven number 3, or do you instead decide to switch and go for oven number 2

>>50660723
This guy is not retarded
The rest of you are

>>50660916
lets go through the options, you picked oven number 3

if oven number 3 has the 6 million jews...
>and you decide not to switch, you win, and hitler who is still alive and in the audience comes on stage to give you a high five. WIN
>and you decide to switch, you lose, and you donate the bread to a foodbank in israel. LOSE
your odds 1 in 2 50/50

if oven number 2 has the 6 million jews...
>and you decide not to switch, you lose, and the jew charges you for 6 million loaves of bread which you must pay in installments with interest LOSE
>and you decide to switch, you win, and all the jew gold goes to you WIN
your odds 1 in 2 50/50

>>50660916
>>50661027
TELL ME HOW IM WRONG

tell me how switching your choice improves your odds of achieving the final solution

>>50660839
It depends on what you know and why you plugged in wallet number 2.
If you know the contents and are trying to trick me into switching, then I don’t switch.
If you were always going to open wallet 2 (even if it had bitcoin), then it doesn’t matter whether I switch.
If you know what’s in the wallets and only ever reveal xrp, and always reveal one, then of course I switch.
>waiting for us to move on to the blue-eyed native suicide puzzle

>>50660663
You're fucking niggerbrained faggotgoyim.
even if it is 50/50 it's equally likely you picked a goat or a car.

Go fuck yourself stupid braindead nigger.

>>50661060
how does it matter if i know whats on the wallet or not. either way one xrp shitcoin wallet is out of the equation.

50/50 believers are literal retards
most likely the same retards that are poojeets spamming shitcoins
use this sim
https://www.mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/
Run it 100 times total, switch for 50 and stay for 50.i guarantee you'll have better odds on the stay option.

>>50661059
Can't be explained to low IQ sorry

>>50661110
>trust the code
>computers cant generate random number
hurr dee durrr derp

People who think its 50/50 aren't taking advantage of all given information.
Since the prize doesn't move the situation is exactly the same as if you chose 1 then were asked if you want to switch to the other 2 but afterward they would open one of your wrong doors.

can't believe you brainlets are still on this.
You pick a door, then the guy picks one of the goat doors.

So there's two groups: door you picked (33% chance of car) and the two doors you didn't pick (66% chance of car).

Pick the highest number you retards.

>>50661120
you're so smart

I have an anecdote about Helene being a retard. This was around the time she and her friends started telling people I was the retard and that my theory was stupid. She was gloating on the phone to that this woman Vos Savant had drawn a table to show the outcomes of this problem. She asked me if it was better to change or stay and I told her it was better to change. She asked me why and I told her the first guess was 1 in 3 while the second would be 1 in 2. She said, "NO!!!! That's not why," and went into some retarded bit about the woman's solution to this problem being the real reason. She was too stupid to understand that you don't need to work out the numerical probability to know that one has higher probability than the other. She was so happy to call me a retard that day, completely oblivious to her Dunning-Kruger problem.

In a way, this anecdaote speaks to the nature of my research program. Because I am a subject matter expert, I know that one often doesn't have to work out numerical solutions to a problem to see the form of its solution. However, people who don't know anything sometimes think that math is nothing more than the math salad of writing very smart-looking numbers and symbols, and those were the sort of people who shit on my research program. Indeed, those are the sort of people who couldn't see that Helene was a toxic, degerate baboon, and choose idolize her instead.

>>50661174
then the guy removes the door so there's still two groups:

door you picked still has 33% chance of car

the two doors you didn't pick minus the door the guy opens = 1 door with 66% chance of winning.

See biz?

>>50661172
No you're incorrect. Your little brain can't comprehend it

>>50661174
you pick an oven, then i turn on one of the bread ovens.

so there's two groups: oven you picked (50% chance of jews) and the oven you didn't pick (50% chance of bread)

the oven i eliminated doesn't matter, it's gone. it always contained bread what the fuck does it matter. i was always going to eliminate one of the bread ovens.

>>50661222
I'm saying the answer is not 50/50 it's 2/3 if you switch.

>>50661216
bizbrains can not compute
Id10t error. close window. buy ada.

>>50661213
99% of people are retards. We can't depend on them. Smart people have a moral and divine obligation to subjugate the brainlets and make them lick our boots for their own good.

>>50661245
I understand Bill Gates and zhe bug goy now.

>>50661237
Ah you right homie

>>50661236
yes but choosing 1 oven out of 3 is harder than choosing 1 in 2.

In case one you are choosing in 1 of 3 while in case 2 you are actually getting better odds than 1 in 2

>>50661172
Another way to think about it is to scale it up to 100 doors.
You choose 1, 98 get eliminated and you are asked if you want to switch.
If you still think its 50/50 then you aren't using all the information given. Its not a coin flip if you win or lose because the car hasn't moved from the beginning, it's position isn't dependant on what you choose at the end. You chose the first door at a 1/100 chance, switching would mean its a 99/100 chance.

>>50661278
if you choose the jew oven, i eliminate one of the bread ovens.

if you choose the bread oven, i eliminate the other bread oven.

now you have two ovens, one with jews, and one with bread. 50/50

>>50661297
if instead you chose a bread oven and i choose to turn on the bread oven you chose. then there is no chance to keep your choice or switch because i already turned on the oven you chose.

>>50661284
With 100 doors you can also think about all 100 possibilities.
Imagine you choose door 1 and after 98 wrong ones get opened only your door and door 37 for example are left. If you had chosen door 2 all but your chosen door and door 37 would be left. And so on.
Your choice and door 37 would be left in 99 cases when you are asked to switch. The only other time is if you guessed door 37 first (which would be the 1/100 case that you guessed it right first)
You can scale this reasoning back down to 3 doors

>>50659542
run the experiment yourself, you'll be surprised. a fun thing to do for two

>>50661344
run the experiment yourself (without a computer and its digital tricks) and if it turns out switching improves your odds, then thats proof reality is full of shit and fucking with us. because its supposed to be 50/50

>>50661297
>if you choose the jew oven, i eliminate one of the bread ovens.
Chance: 1/3 -> Winning move: stay
>if you choose the bread oven, i eliminate the other bread oven.
Chance: 2/3 -> Winning move: switch

>>50661366
since you don't know if you got the jew you should always switch, unless you hear oy vey when you first pick

>>50661366
there is no out of 3 i already eliminated one of the ovens. there are only 2 ovens left to choose from

>>50661374
this is before you eliminate them
> if you choose the jew oven
chance of this happening is 1 out of 3
> if you choose the bread oven
chance of this happening is 2 out of 3

>>50659292
>>50659331
>>50659301
>>50659360
I remember growing up and there was some jew produced blockbuster that proposed this scenario from some actor as a uni professor
then some actor kid starts spewing some bullshit on why "statistics" say switching your answer is going to improve your odds

it was some super low iq shit like
>before it was a 1/3 chance so if you change it it'll be even higher like 60%
or some cringe shit

either way it's just math pilpul that is 100% useless and fake and bet it was debunked by actual testing through real world shit rather than gay math and found wrong
either way since it was in a big hit movie I knew it was fake cause jews never put anything useful in movies
it was probably comms jews use in media to deliver hidden messages cause that's all that's ever in movies which are popular

>>50661383
it's not that useful. It's just a brain teaser designed to make stat professors look dumb.

>>50661374
if i had eliminated the oven you chose then there would be no game, i would turn on the oven you chose right then and there and there would be no question of switching or not, the game would be over win or lose right then and there. since the question is always "to switch or not to switch" then clearly im not going to chose to turn on the oven you chose.

>>50661374
The Jew is in an oven from the beginning and doesn't move.
Let's say Jew is in oven 3

You choose oven 1 they open oven 2 and are asked to switch
You choose oven 2 they open oven 1 and are asked to switch
You choose oven 3 they open 1/2 and are asked to switch

2/3 times switching gets you the jew

>>50661356
think of it this way. The same thing but with 100 doors, and then the monty reveals all but two doors as goats: one other door and the door you picked. Do you think it's more likely that the door you picked out of 100 is the right one, or that the remaining door is the correct one?

>>50661406
100 doors, a thousand doors, 20 billion doors what does it matter. there are only 2 doors left, one with goat one with car 50/50

if i had opened on of the doors and it had a car then the game would be over. there would be no question of whether to switch or not. since there is always the question of whether to switch or not, that means ill never open the door with a car.

>>50661440
If you aren't trolling read
>>50661284
>>50661333

>>50661449
buddy, in every case, i will eliminate 98 losing doors so i can ask you whether you want to switch or not.

>>50661457
you clearly didnt read it or are just baiting

>>50661457
nigguh you dumb as hell nigguh.
Like you da dumbest nigguh in Detroit that level of nigguh dumbasscrackery no cap frfr

>>50661472
if i eliminate one of the doors with a car behind it then i don't get to ask if you want to switch or not. since every time the question comes down to "switch or no switch" then clearly i haven't opened the car door yet. so if there are 2 doors left one of them is the car and one isn't. 50 fucking 50

>>50659282
Its still 50/50. The Monty Hall problem and its stats solution don't take into consideration that remaining with your door is a choice.

>>50659379
Retard, you have a 66.6% chance of getting it right. initially the chances were inverted cause you were aiming to be correct with a 66.6% chance of getting it wrong. But once one of the two remaining options have its goat revealed it switches the stats and now gives you a 66.6% chance of being right if you switch taking into account the fact that you were likely wrong on the first choice and therefore have a better chance now that 1 of the options was cleared. This is only confusing cause it assumes the person mentally made a choice but whether he is right or wrong is never revealed to him until the end. This also doesn't work if the host reveals the door you mentally chose because you're still left with two choices with no clear direction.

>>50661494
That is correct but you have more information you arent using.
If you used that information you would increase your odds to 2/3.
It's been explained multiple times in the thread already and you haven't explained how any of it is wrong and just keep repeating yourself.
>>50661398
explain how this is incorrect if you aren't just baiting
You are welcome to keep staying ignorant though.

>>50659542
It only works if the person making the choice mentally chooses a option before its revealed. If they don't have stupid level confidence to be confident in a choice initially then they don't get the option of choosing later consciously aware of the statistics of the situation. The majority of midwits are too indecisive to make mental choices as such and the lower half of the bell curve is stupid confident but lacks the reasoning capability to understand the statistical advantage of such. Even most people on the upper end of the bell curve don't use emotional energies in such ways but this sort of touches on the premises behind how things like magik and alchemy worked.

>>50661527
oh, i'm repeating myself, no you are. you keep repeating your dogmatic mantra of "2 out of 3" it doesn't make any sense.

if i am monty the dickfuck assclown playing his stupid game. and i eliminate 1 billion doors leaving only 2 doors left. one of those doors has a car in it. because if i already opened the door with a car in it, there would be no game. for there to be a game, for there to be a choice every time to switch or not, implies that i didn't eliminate the car and won't eliminate the car. no matter what happens, i, monty the fuckhead, will eliminate everything but one car and one goat. 2 doors. 50/50

>>50660834
>does it become 50 percent
Yes
If course it does

>>50661590
a coin flip is 50/50, its a random choice.
If you were initially given 2 doors and asked 2 choose 1 then yes it would be a 50/50. You keep boiling the question down to 2 doors, which is why I say you are repeating yourself.
But the question has information before you boil it down to just 2 doors. You not using that information is what is actually making you the dickfuck assclown.
It's insane that out of all 1 billion possibilities that you outlined that you still think its a 50/50 when in all but 1 of those possibilities he is leaving the same door for you to switch to.
>>50661333

>>50661648
it does present a problem, what if Monty is lying and there is no car?

>>50661667
feed him to the goat you just won

>>50659282
No, if Monty knows where the car is and has a choice to offer you to switch.

Yes, if Monty MUST reveal a goat.

>>50661648
dude of course there are only 2 choices. monty is eliminating one of the goats. he's not going to eliminate the car or he doesn't get to ask you if you want to switch or not.

monty isnt going to eliminate the door you chose. and he's not going to eliminate the car. if he does either of those the game is over and there is no question to switch or not, the question being the whole point of the game. so monty is going to eliminate the other goat every time. leaving you with 2 choices, one door with goat and one door with car.

>>50661718
I think you have to be baiting at this point otherwise your reading comprehension is abysmal
neither case is something I want to engage with any more
If you still don't get it reread what i've posted especially this one >>50661333

>>50661751
no, you reread this
>>50661742

>>50659282
Yes. I'd rather fuck the goat than the exhaust.

>>50659282
The explanation as to why mathematically you should change is that if you imagine that instead of 3 this game has 100 doors. You picked one and the presenter has opened 98 doors showing all goats. That leaves you with the door you picked and 1 other door. The implied argument is that since the presenter knows which door has the car and has only left one other option that must have a higher probability of being the right one. In the 3 doors problem, theoretically the door that the presenter didn't choose has a 2/3 probabilty instead of the 1/3 of the one you picked, hence you should switch.

>>50659282
I'll stick to door 3 because I want a goat

>>50659745
This chart neatly illustrates that it becomes 50/50 though lol
The host removing one choice means your chances of being correct are altered from 33.3r% to 50%.
I like this puzzle, though. I'll have to remember it makes people argue, just like those puzzles that make people argue about whether to solve multiplication or division first in a PEDMAS problem.

>>50660916
Kek

>>50661945
another chart that neatly illustrates 50/50 odds of winning
>>50661110

I pick the door that he opened. Weren't expecting that, were you Monty?

>>50660777
>trips of truth
Can't argue now. Swap the choice anon!

>>50661962
Both things are true. Which is why it causes arguments and is clever.
Because you only had a 1/3 chance to be right at step 1, your answer is most likely wrong. Ergo you should switch.
But your odds of being correct once a door is eliminated still become 50/50.
It is both true that you should switch because you were most likely wrong when the choice was 1/3, and that your odds when there are only two doors have become 50/50.
Fun.

>>50661145
You can press control+u and see the source code yourself dumbfuck, it's not manipulated

Door 1 : 0.33
Door 2 : 0.33
Door 3 : 0.33

Pick door 1
Doors 2 & 3 are collectively 0.66
Monty opens door 3. Door 2 is now 0.66 by itself

The answer is switch, you double your chances.

>>50662013
>trusting computers
naw son
i would have to do the experiment myself and im not interested. if it reveals the odds are better switching that means reality is broken or fucking with us and id rather not know

>>50662048
you could use the monty hall effect to power a spaceship to nearly lightspeed

3 tanks, 2 are empty, 1 contains a full load of fuel. choose 1 tank. tap one empty tank and then have the option of switching the tank you choose or keeping the tank you choose. since switching tanks allegedly gives you better then 50/50 odds thats free fuel. repeat for unlimited fuel. problem nasa?

Yeah, switching is bullshit.
Fuck you all niggers.

>>50659370
Those retards can't embrace the fact that everything, in the end, is chaos.

>>50659282
i'll take two goat over any car

>>50659282
For those mind-fucked about this I recommend reading on Bayesian statistics. The TL DR is that the host is operating with only two choices to "show you the goat" so, because he has indeed shown you a goat, the probability that the door he didn't choose to have a car is bigger than 1/3, the original probability of your choice.

hes trying to trick you to switch. why else would he reveal a goat? he knows you chose the correct one. if you chose the goat, you think he would do shit? no he’ll let you get the goat. fucking jew.

>>50659282
Here is one intuitive solution to the Problem.
Initially try to win a goat. You have a 2/3 chance with no prior knowledge.
Know that no matter wether you manage to pick a goat door, Monty will reveal a goat.
Assume that you got the 2/3 chance to have picked a goat, and Monty just revealed the other one.
Then switch for the car. Your 2/3 chance to have picked a goat just turned into a 2/3 chance to have picked the car.
So the correct answer is to switch.

>>50661440
initial door pick can not be removed from the pool, therefor does not carry the same information that the other ones left

>>50659502
I wouldn't call it pseud, it's a great example of a key human psychological bias. this problem applies to much more
than just a silly game show, it demonstrates the human tendency to stick irrationally to an initial choice even when presented with overwhelming evidence that this choice is incorrect. think how often your thoughts about
a given thing are contextualized by your first encounter with that thing, it's why propaganda is so effective and why people raised to believe insane
things have a really hard time rejecting those beliefs in the face of evidence

>>50662044
Is this anon messing with us?

Listen retard. Concentrate your retarted brain.

Before Door 1 is open.
Odds:
Total odds : 100
Door 1 : 33.33 in 100 = 33.33%
Door 2 : 33.33 in 100 = 33.33%
Door 3 : 33.33 in 100 = 33.33%

After Door 1 is open.
Door 1 : 33.33% is now Eliminated

Total odds now = 100 -33.33 = 66.66

New Odds
Door 2 : 33.33 in 66.66 = 50%
Door 3 : 33.33 in 66.66 = 50%

Hence, 50-50 Chance. Now Bend your mom in front of me.

>>50659282
does monty know where the car is?
does monty ALWAYS has to open a door or he can choose not to?

>>50662548
in the initial pick, your chance was 1/3. in the second round, NOW your chance is 1/2. 1/2 is better odds than 1/3. so switch for a slight advantage

>>50662573
in the problem monty always knows where the car is. it's pretty simple when you reduce it: is 1/2 better odds than 1/x, where x is any number greater than 2?

>>50662576
Wtf, sounds so reasonable!

>>50662576
Look empty brain guy,

If you swiich,

Odds = 1/2

If you don't switch,

Odds = 1/2

Benefit from switching = (1/2) - (1/2) =0

No f***** benefit!!!

So, why switch, when you gain no benefit when switching?

>>50662608
because your initial pick had a 33% chance of being correct. when you reduce your second pick to an independent event, you're erroneously applying the probability of your second pick to your first pick.

>>50662576
Also, the act of Revealing Door 1 will automatically increase your odds to 1/2. You dont have to do a single thing. It automagically goes to 1/2.

You already have 1/2 odds.
You don't benefit due to switching.
You also dont lose due to switching.

It doesn't matter. You have 1/2 odds whatever you do, you don't have a superior choice. If you think you have choice, it's an illusion.

>>50662620
Stop feeding it.

(It's 66% anyway.)

>>50662621
>You dont have to do a single thing. It automagically goes to 1/2.

You already have 1/2 odds.
that's not correct, you picked it when it was a set of 3, therefore you had a 1/3 chance of being right

>>50662620
Wow, You dont even know that you don't know.
I thought you were trolling,
Man, study some statistics, eh?, it'll help you in finance.

>>50662627
I'm not, these things only have one objection and I'm simply being thorough in the rebuttal

>>50662627
> total probability
> 66%

>>50659282
Probability riddles are the most fag things ever to be invented , yeah sure switch 100 times for that 2/3 increase chance theres still a chance that you lose 100 times in a row. Fuck the coping niggerfags who came up with the ultimate cope theory of probability

There's no point in explaining more than once, if they don't get it after the first explanation they'll never get it.

>>50659282
ahahahahaha most of you will never make it, and that's ok

>>50662636
The other anon knows he's wrong you retard

>>50662634
You were most likely wrong with your first choice. 66.6% likely to be wrong.
So changing your choice when you get a 50/50 is the best decision.

>>50659379
wrong, by not switching you are also "switching" just without changing your answer.

you've been offered door 2 or 3, you picked 3 again. thats a 50/50, the same as if you switched

>>50662630
Monty will always open the door with a goat behind it, since the beginning you’re just given the illusion of three doors when it’s always been 2 doors to choose from. A door with a goat or a door with a car behind. The other goat door is always irrelevant since it will always get removed from the equation to fuck with you

>>50662681
>You were most likely wrong with your first choice.
How do know that?

>>50662695
Because you had only a 1/3 chance of being right. That makes you most likely wrong.

>>50661110
>>50661145
I have to correct this every time I see it, sorry. Even though in this case it doesn't matter because uniformly distributed pseudorandom numbers would work just as well as random numbers.

Computers can actually generate random numbers. You can't generate random numbers algorithmically, but real computers, modern ones at least, have a special circuit in the CPU which produces bits that are randomized by thermal noise, and thermal noise is as random as anything gets.

>>50662704
>you had only a 1/3 chance of being right

Which means, he "could" have been right. He could win the car.

How is 1/3 the same as "most likely wrong"??

If probability is not 0, how is that guy "most likely wrong"?

>>50661383
it was of course tested with compute simulations and found to be right, and it's not that hard to understand;
there's 3 scenarios, one for each door you can pick
if you pick the right door, you don't win when you change your pick
if you pick one of the wrong ones, you always win
that's 2/3 chance

>>50662723
Do you not understand what "most likely" means? It means more likely than not likely, ie above 50%. 66.6% is above 50%

>>50662705
Cloudflare has a rack of laval lamps to generate randomness. It must depend upon the amount of random data you need.

>>50662731
the crux is that when you've made your pick, you create a new (restricted) context
the host gives you a clue, *within that new context*
that information is very valuable, and you have to act out on it

>>50662732
>Do you not understand what "most likely" means?

How is Door 2 "more likely" than Door 3?

To switch and choose Door 2 over Door 3, Door 2 needs to have higher probability of being right than Door 3.

But, Probability of Door 2 being right is 1/2
Probability of Door 3 being right is 1/2.

If the probability are same, then how is Door 2 "more likely" right? And Door 3 "less likely" right?

>>50662723
Wtf are you talking about dumbass? Of course you can be most like wrong with a non-zero probability. You are most likely not gonna win the lottery
>Hurt Durr but it's not 0 probability so you can't say most likely
Fucking ESL faggot

>>50659282
>Win car or goat
it has no matter I'm winning in a both cases!

>>50662776
I think you're purposely misunderstanding now.
I said when you are given three doors, any given choice is most likely the wrong choice. Because you only have 1/3 chance of being right and 2/3 chance of being wrong.
With that information in mind, when the choice changes to 50/50 in the scenario you're talking about, you have the additional information that your first choice was most likely wrong. That's why you choose to switch based on probabilities.

>>50662800
>you have the additional information that your first choice was most likely wrong.

How this fact that door 1 having a stinking goat, infer that the car is in fact not in door 3?

Car might still be in door 3.

>>50662817
Yes, nobody is saying that switching gives you 100% certainty of making the right choice. It's just about finding the best probability.

>>50662819
>about finding the best probability.

Why is Door 2 'best probability' and why is door 3 'worse probability'?

>>50662827
You are being given a 50-50 choice with the only extra information being
>my first choice was probably wrong because I only had a 1/3 chance of being correct
Therefore changing is best
It's very simple really

>>50662841
Why is 'extra information' important or necessary in my 50-50 choice.

I'?m a consooomer I have to chose between coca cola and pepsi.

I have 50-50 chance of buying either coca cola or pepsi.

Why should 'extra information' thay michelle obama is a tranny be important or necessary?
It's the same thing.

>>50662867
wat

>>50662585
now that i've had something to eat, I'll rephrase this in a less retarded way

chance of winning with first pick: 1/x
chance of winning by switching: (x-1)/x

>>50659542
It does matter.

Think of it like this:
There are two timelines
In the car timeline it is bad to switch
In the goat timeline it is great to switch
It is more likely that you are in the goat timeline

>>50662927
Why is first pick relevant for 2nd pick?

>>50662931
Sounds convincing

>>50662938
presumably you want to win the car

>>50662750
>>50661383
upscaling the problem makes it easier to understand, if there are 1000 doors and you pick one and the host discards 998 and asks if you want to switch you'd have to be retarded not to.

>>50662967
Even if I want to win a goat.
Why is door 2 better than door 3?

>>50662976
higher probability of winning

>>50659282
What if the main character is a Muslim?

>>50662969
Following your logic,

Example 1,

When 1000 doors,
Probability of selecting right door = 1/1000

You select door 1000

When 998 door open and only 2 door remain,
Probability of selecting right door = 1/2

Hence, due to virtue of opening 998 doors, door 1000 is wrong, you should select door 999.

Example 2,

When 1000 doors,
Probability of selecting right door = 1/1000

You select door 999

When 998 door open and only 2 door remain,
Probability of selecting right door = 1/2

Hence, due to virtue of opening 998 doors, door 999 is wrong, you should select door 1000.

Wtf?

>>50662990
The Probability a girl will sleep with you was 0 yesterday,
The Probability of a girl sleeping with you is 0 today.

How does yesterday's Probability affect today's Probability?

Same how door3 better Probability than door 2 or vice versa?

By the time you get to the part of the question where the door is opened and he can switch, the 50% mind has already forgotten the first part of the story when he picked a door from three. In his head he just sees two doors with no other context.

If you try enumte the possibilities, you explain what happens if he picks a goat first. Then when you explain what happens if he picks a car, he's already forgotten the first scenario and just sees a car he's won with no other context.
The problem is not that the statistics are unintuitive or people misunderstand
probability when events aren't independent, those are just the reasons why most people get it wrong to start with. The reason why some people still get it wrong after hearing an explanation is that the problem contains three things, and some people can't think about three things. You're never going to convince them no matter how clever your explanation.

>>50663009
I have no idea what he fuck you're talking about

>>50661383
those filthy jews and their riddles

>>50660916
>two of the ovens contain six million loaves of bread
>two
How come I didn’t smell bread when I switched on the chosen oven?
Stick to the plan!

>>50663084
You said my first choice is 'most probably' wrong.

Ok so, I'll take your logic,

1st Scenario::

I chose door 2

He show door 1 is goat.

Now my first choice of door 2 is 'most probably' wrong.
Hence, I must choose door 3.

2nd scenario::

I chose door 3

He show door 1 is goat.

Now my first choice of door 3 is 'most probably' wrong.
Hence, I must choose door 2.


Following your logic, even in exact same scenario, you have 2 different conclusions.

So, following your logic, I'm always 'wrong' in the first try. And all i have to do is reverse my 'wrong' pick and select another one.

Does this make sense to you?

Why has nobody addressed that if it's 66% and 33% chances, what about the other 1%? CHECK-MATE MATHLETS.

>>50661097
If the revealer doesn’t have any info, then sometimes the revealer will reveal the wallet with bitcoin in it. This is the case where the information provided by the reveal matters in the Bayesian way. Since the reveal isn’t always the zonk, 1/3 of the time we find out our odds went to 0/2, and 2/3 of the time we find out our odds went to 1/2.

>>50663119
I never said you're always wrong in the first try, just more likely

>>50659282
have a degree in math, still get confused by this fake and gay "riddle" every time it's posted.

>>50663168
So I'm "more likely" wrong whichever door i pick first?

So if i choose door 2, door 2 = more likely wrong
If i choose door 3, door 3 = more likely wrong

And i must chose another door. Is this it??

>>50663168
I choose door 3.


Probability of door 3 before reveal = 1/3 = 33.33%

Reveal door 1 = goat

Probability of door 3 after reveal = 1/2 = 50%

Well, Probability of door is greater now. I should stick with my choice of door 3.

But,, anon,, you said whatever i chose is "most likely" wrong.

This doesn't add up.

>>50659370
did you hear that in a youtube video? it's a simple problem (which is completely unintuitive to me) but is solved easily.

>>50663027
the size of the set shrinks between picks, so you have new information

>>50663278
Answer >>50663242 anon

You said,
You said because door 1 was goat, my choice of door 3 is "most probably" wrong.

But in >>50663242 i used your logic to calculate probabilities. But, door 3 looks like is not "most probably" wrong.
In fact, door 3 should be preferable choice.

>>50663242
When you initially chose door 3, you locked it down from being able to be interacted with by the host, so the probability of your door 3 pick is still 33.33%

>>50663308
x=3
(3-1)/3 = 66%
probability of door 2 is 66%
door 3 is 33%

>>50663310
But anon, according to the internet, (https://www.learntocalculate.com/how-to-calculate-probability/))

Probability = no of favourable outcome / total no of outcome.

So,

Probability of door 3 = no of door 3 / no of total doors

No of door3 = 1
No of total door = 2
(you either choose door 2 or door 3. You cannot choose door 1 because it's not in the menu)

Now,

Probability of door 3 = 1 / 2 = 50%

But anon, you said it was 33%
But mathematics shows it's 50%
??

>>50663346
But x = 2
Not 3.

You have to choose between 2 doors (door 2 and 3)

Door 1 is not available to be chosen.

>>50659282

He should pick door 4. Retards.

/thread

>>50661110
seriously...

In the Megadeth song "My Last Words," Dave sings about a game of Russian Roulette:
>six to one's the odds, and we have the highest stakes
But if it's assumed they're playing with a sixshooter, shouldn't the odds be five (unloaded cylinders) to one (loaded cylinder)? The wording "one in six" makes sense to me, but not "six TO one," unless they're playing with a seven cylinder revolver.

>>50661110
Wtf, I'm winning by a huge margin when i don't switch.

>>50663469

>>50663220
yes, you're less likely to pick the right one out of 3 options than out of 2 options, I don't get how this is hard to understand

>>50663308
even if you're correct and after the reveal it's 50/50 then it's not the preferable choice as both have the same chance of being right

>>50663667

But look at this >>50663657. I selected "Keep Choice" 5 times. And all 5 of the times, I won.

>>50663702
cool, I selected change 5 times and won 5 times. and also I didn't have to refresh the site to get that score :)

>>50663734
I didn't refresh as well.
But, either I'm missing something or I'm right.
Either way, i think it's time to switch my attention to another thing.
Wish you good day, anon.

>>50663773

The first time I saw this problem was in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night Time, a novel about the confusion a young autistic man feels navigating the world. It contained this chart
>>50661110
Which quieted the boy's discomfort at the uncertainty. If it doesn't work for you, I don't know what to say because that book's narrator was SUPER autistic, it's surprising that you'd be worse.

>>50659282
you should always switch. there is a 66% prior probability that you didn't pick the door with the car. if that's the case then monty has no free choice in picking the door to reveal a goat, since one closed door has the car and the other closed door has a goat, so he is forced in his decision. so switching will get you the car in 66% of all cases.

>>50661110
>>50663785
>i guarantee you'll have better odds on the stay option.

>>50661110
nice bait, you have two branches where you choose a goat and one where you don't, should be the other way round

>>50663815
why? there are 2 goats and 1 car

I hate riddles that play with words. Give me an actual riddle instead of acting like a smart ass for creating a scenario then not knowing where to go from there so you resort to the most cliche and lazy form or riddling

>>50663734
Anon you've been arguing with the same troll for hours. I'm lmaoing@your life

>>50661383
>>50662731
>>50663785
the reason "it works" is easy to explain if you think about the events from the point of view of after making the choices.
when you made your first choice, you picked 1 of 3 doors.
when you made your second choice, you picked 1 of 2 doors.
at no point were you not going to be shown one of the loser doors. the 1-in-3 cannot influence that outcome.
so ignore the labelling of "kept my choice" and "changed my mind" and so on, those are the beginning moments of your brain beginning to perform magical thinking. "keeping my choice" is not what is about to happen in that moment, and after that moment, it's not what happened. you still made a choice.
you had 2 doors and one has this red arrow, or pointer to it, reminding you of a 1-in-3 choice which is no longer meaningful. it gives you no relevant information to what you are about to do next. you are picking a door whether you swap doors or not. everything that happened up to that point is dead and gone, history.
the other thing interesting about the problem is that observers are watching you pick you first 1-in-3 door and they don't randomly pick which of the loser doors to open. they are deliberately using real time analysis of your behavior and facial expression to game this system. they're the house, after all, and you're just a gambler. so the "unpredictability" of people who will change their choice results in worse outcomes for them, in the aggregate.
you "switching" doesn't actually give you better odds because of those outcomes; the seemingly skewed result is because of the limited confidence with which they can read you and pick the right loser-door to show.

>>50663856
NPC opinion. Here's a riddle, what's the square root of 54321, rounded to the nearest whole number?

>Hard to figure out
>Can cheat by googling the answer
>Doesn't play with words
>Clear direction on where to start and how to solve

>>50663815
>>50663425
>>50663657
what now chud

It's 50/50. Anyone that disagrees is overthinking it. You choose between 2 doors aka a coin flip.

>>50663815
Oh. I get it now.

So, initially you have 1/3 chance of choosing goat.

And 2/3 chance of not choosing car.

Now host has to reveal goat, so he must choose door which doesn't have car. So in a way he'll reveal the car indirectly.

You might be initially when you chose any door. But car's more likely to ge in door unopened.

But host removes goat from other 2 options.

So, if you play this game 300 times and don't switch. You're likely to get car 100 times, but lose it 200 times.

Thanks anon. Have a (You).

>>50663938
>>50663815
Oh. I get it now.

So, initially you have 1/3 chance of choosing car.

And 2/3 chance of not choosing car.

Now host has to reveal goat, so he must choose door which doesn't have car. So in a way he'll reveal the car indirectly.

You might be initially when you chose any door. But car's more likely to ge in door unopened.

But host removes goat from other 2 options.

So, if you play this game 300 times and don't switch. You're likely to get car 100 times, but lose it 200 times.

Thanks anon. Have a (You).

*Edited to correct something. Thanks for reddit gold kind stranger.

>>50663883
>>50663931
dumb niggers

>>50663931
you are retarded, you don't get to choose when the goat opens, your pick is LOCKED IN, into the 33% outcome.
So by switching you turn it into 50%

>>50663959
So, the trick is in the question.

It looks like 50-50 when in fact it's not.

For example,
If host didn't reveal anything.

Then you'd be right 1/3 of time and wrong 2/3 of time.

Also, host know where the car is, so he has to avoid choosing the car door.
Car might be chosen by you, car might not be chosen by you.

If you chose car, which is 1/3 of time. You switch -> You lose.
But if are wrong, which is 2/3 of time. You Switch -> You win.

Essentially, you're only right 1 in 3 times when you select the first door.
So you win 33% of time when you stay.
And lose 66% of time when you stay.
Which is also empirically true.
Fascinating!!

>>50663959
No because when that kike Monty reveals the goat and gives you the option to switch, you're choosing between 2 doors. Sticking with the door you originally picked is a choice. Your choice when there were 3 doors is now irrelevant. You now have 2 choices. And chances are that kike Monty knows you picked the right door and just wants to fuck with your head or else he would have immediately revealed your door if you picked the goat. Why would he risk losing the car if you had originally picked the goat? Unless he wants to have a threesome with 2 goats he wouldn't do that which is why I'm sticking with my original door because more likely than not it has the car behind it.

>>50659282
You should always swap since they ALWAYS show the goat. Swapping increases your odds of winning from one third to two thirds.

>>50659282
It’s 50:50 once the goat door is revealed, nothing else matters.

>>50663951
No bait

>>50663824
yeah for some reason i had it in my head that the goat is the price kek my bad

>>50663901
keep clicking randomly on doors for about an hour

>>50659282
lot of retards ITT. this riddle becomes easier if you imagine there's 1000 doors instead of 3. you choose a door. monty then eliminates 998 doors that have goats and lets you choose again. clearly you should switch to the other door you didnt initially choose. your initial choice had a 1/1000 chance of being correct, but if you switch you are almost certain to win

>>50664335
>if you switch you are almost certain to win
Please explain. The odds of the door you originally picked being right goes up with each door that Monty eliminates. At first you have a 33% of being right. When he eliminates 1 door, you now have a 50% chance of being right.

>>50664379
>The odds of the door you originally picked being right goes up with each door that Monty eliminates
his pick tells you nothing about your pick, so no

>>50664415
>his pick tells you nothing about your pick, so no
Wrong. His pick changes the odds of the game

>>50664443
not at all, as i said before he makes his pick in a restricted context and only gives off information about the two remaining doors

>>50663949
>Now host has to reveal goat, so he must choose door which doesn't have car. So in a way he'll reveal the car indirectly.
as i explained, this is the trick, this is how they get you. you think you're being given additional information, like they're forced to give something up to you to indirectly reveal where the car is. what actually happens is:
- they already know whether you've picked the car or not
- they watched you make the pick
- they watch you respond to the host's rigamarole, if any
- if they know you picked a goat, they simply show the other goat
- if they know you picked the car, they show you whichever door they think will make you switch
- they have two goats to choose from, can show you either one, and have a pile of data collecting from you looking at the doors when making your first decision
- no AI needed, even in the early 1900s this is as simple as human observers who have the very mundane skill of reading people's reactions to things with their vocal tenor, choice of vocab, and body language
their success rate is reflected in the real outcomes, not in a word problem given to college students. that's why the actual game doesn't reflect any wanna-be math nerd bullshit that some faggot statistician is trying to prove.

Tldr: tou should switch
You can simulate the game here:
https://math.andyou.com/tools/montyhallsimulator/montysim.htm

>>50664484
I used a python script to test it.

>>50664484
>>50664533
Indeed when I run it a million times.
And made the game swap to another door each time.

Won 66% of times
Lost 33% of times.

It's empirical. Lol
I'll probably never forget it again.

This riddle is garbage $LSVR dev dropping better riddles on etherscan

>>50664443
compare it with
> random number 1 to 3
> you pick a number as a guess
> host gives you a number it is not
vs
> host tells you it is not one of the two remaining numbers, specifying which one

>>50664533
I really hope you don't program for a living. Your code seems to just run a 1/3 and 2/3 probability counter.

>>50664608
Haha, I don't program for living. I work as an accountant.

But, what you said is the gist of it.
Since there are two goats and one car.
If you invert it (swap), two times you win car and one time you win goat.

I use programming as hobby only. Haha

>>50660834
Yes, it does instantly become 50/50 now. Whole new game. What's so hard to understand? If we aren't allowed to swap, doesn't matter. Any extra information or door opened does change those initial conditions, in fact you see the door opened and give a sigh of relief and think "wow, it's 50/50 now, hope I have chosen right" It remains 1/3 only if the door you chose is opened

>>50664820
Get a friend and run through it a hundred times of you don't trust the simulators.

>>50660114
Lol exactly, by annoucing the goat door, the game already changes, it doesnt matter if you chose anything before or after the annoucement...the game becomes between 2 choices, and your initial probabilities of 3 doors does not apply anymore...this is because the presenter knows the content and deliberately eliminates always a losing door...which retard gave you funding for this, I solved it fairly easily, midwit mathematicians cant distinguish between unrelated stastical events trying to combine them in their calculations and calling it a paradox hahaha

You have to pick one out of 1 billion doors. After you choose, the host opens (1 billion - 2) doors that are guaranteed to not contain the car. Do you still think your original choice has a 50% chance of being right?

let’s say you pick 1 out of 3828573917247382 doors
host asks you to stand next to one of the doors. he proceeds to slam it in your face and tells you he fucked your mom just before the show. sits on your face, farts and breaks out in loud laughter. crowd cheers. do you still think you can win with 50% chance??? not hard to understand the monty hall problem

Again to clarify from a different angle, since whatever door you choose either with a goat or a car, there would already be an additional goat which is going to be already opened by the presenter...so you never had 1/3 chance to begin with, the game was always 50/50 from the start...two scenarios where you might choose the car, 1/3*1/2=1/6 plus where you might choose the goat 2*1/3*1/2= 2/6 would equal 3/6 in total making it 50/50....

The real important question here is why does he wear he mask?

two kinds of people

people who think the right answer and the smart answer is the one the authorities tell him is the right answer. and he'll do any mental gymnastics possible to say he believes the right answer so he can say he's smart.

and people who realize having 2 choices is 50/50 period. and aren't going to be swayed by any amount of bullshit

its a useful test to determine if you're an npc or not

>>50665344
Just another way of looking at it for all the midwits...the chance of winning the game at the beginning is 1/3...if you add the presenter opening and then your ability to change to the equation, it becomes a new game with %50 chance of winning, or you can interpret it as there is no difference between changing and not changing...%50 is not only the probability of the 2nd game but also the weighted scale of change your decision brings, which at %50 is neutral level...the two games are not statistically dependent together as introducing the new factors disconnect the link between the two games

>>50665710
will you please stop
do the game 1000 times
ignore whatever Monty does
you’ll win 333 times on average
not hard to understand

the essence is that monty cannot open your door
if he could, the remaining two doors would have 50/50 chance

I wonder how many more people would lose their minds if there were a goat and a sheep instead of two goats.