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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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50380256 No.50380256 [Reply] [Original]

Celsius blowing up the entire crypto industry motivated me to see which other CeFi platforms are gonna get wrecked. Decided to start with a /biz/ personal favorite, Nexo. Join me in looking at their recent liquidity shock for BTC, ETH, and LINK.

>> No.50380290
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50380290

ETH was the easiest to analyze with how they set up their withdrawal wallet. ETH is paid out from 0x31E9b3373F2AD5d964CAd0fd01332d6550cBBdE6 and there are two main addresses that top it up: 0xB60C61DBb7456f024f9338c739B02Be68e3F545C and 0x9bdB521a97E95177BF252C253E256A60C3e14447

Analyzing the flow of ETH from these two addresses gives a perfect proxy of how much ETH users are pulling off the platform. June 13th is when Celsius announced their pausing of withdrawals. Look how much they fucked Nexo liquidity lol

Average ETH withdrawn per day pre June 13: 478
Average ETH withdrawn per day post June 13: 2,107

A whopping 300% increase! They have 141k backup at 0x8Fd589AA8bfA402156a6D1ad323FEC0ECee50D9D, which should keep them afloat for a couple months.

>> No.50380327
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50380327

LINK is paid out from their main ERC-20 hot wallet, 0xFfec0067F5a79CFf07527f63D83dD5462cCf8BA4. Despite massive top-ups, their LINK balance has taken a nosedive since June 13th and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

Average LINK withdrawn per day pre June 13: 18,000
Average LINK withdrawn per day post June 13: 82,000

Another 350% increase! It looks like they have 1.2m LINK spread out across their hot wallet and 0xB60C61DBb7456f024f9338c739B02Be68e3F545C. I started analyzing Crypto.com and they only had a 31% increase.. wonder why some CeFi platforms aren’t seeing as large withdrawal demand.

>> No.50380353
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50380353

Last but not least is looking at their BTC liquidity. This was a little more tricky to analyze because BTC is a pain in the ass with their UTXO model. It looks like bc1qn878vf8699p32y3ehq2wwaq876uu7yye5m5ahc is one of their primary top up wallets. I analyzed transfers from this address to a Nexo hot wallet 36EAqnTD7vREBytbbW1nmDYMp3wgCnQviN as a proxy for withdrawals.

Average BTC withdrawn per day pre June 13: 188
Average BTC withdrawn per day post June 13: 693

A 268% increase! Pretty incredible that withdrawal demand rose in tandem for these three assets.

So anons.. Can Nexo sustain this tsunami wave of withdrawals until things quiet down? Anyone else been researching CeFi and can give their opinion?

>> No.50380363
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50380363

>>50380256

>> No.50380370

>>50380256
Thanks for reminding about Celsius. I will check its subreddit to feel a bit better

>> No.50380480

>>50380370

> subreddit

Gotta stash some copium

>> No.50380599

I have thoroughly analyzed all of OP's posts and it has lead me to the conclusion that Nexo (ticker: NEXO) is insolvent.

>> No.50380629
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50380629

>CeFi

>> No.50380664

>>50380599
come again now

>> No.50380712

>>50380327
>1.2 million divided by 82k
>14 days if the trend continues
Unironically within 2 weeks Nexo will be insolvent. Just in the last hour they've lost like 10k LINK.

>> No.50380715

>>50380256
Well their armanino attest thing (I know, attest isn't audit, it uses figures nexo provide on a "dude trust me" basis, and it makes no distinction between nexo business units) shows they have $3.6 billion liabilities, so nominally at least $3.6 billion assets (again, dude trust us but we're not even going to show you our assets), so it's a case of looking at the rate of assets going out (which are actually customer liabilities) and comparing that to the rate their reported liabilities decrease. If more is being withdrawn than their liabilities are decreasing by then we'll know they're basically insolvent.

>> No.50380724

>>50380256
nobody cares we are going to 100k faggot

>> No.50381389

>>50380712
OH NO NO

>> No.50381422

>>50380712
they'll buy more

>> No.50382371

>>50381422
Honestly I'm more than okay with this, I hope they do. If it keeps them solvent, they can buy LINK as much as they want.

>> No.50382711

>>50380363
CDC are going to make it imo, it’s clear they can afford to lower rates into the dirt meaning nearly all borrowing from retail will stop. If they didn’t have the reserves to support that sort of withdrawals they wouldn’t lower the rates.
And I believe kris when he said they raked in so much fucking cash late 2021 early 2022 to ride the bear out with some cuts in product benefits here and there.

>> No.50382800
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50382800

>>50380256
>>50380290
>>50380327
>>50380353
Let me be blunt, is there a Liquidity crisis in CeFi today?

>> No.50382860

>>50381422
so they either go insolvent or pump link
sounds good :^)

>> No.50383067

>>50380256
Good thread. Do you plan to analyze the solvency of other CeFi platforms like CRO or H0dln4ut?

>> No.50384485

>>50380327
Once you identify the wallets are you just exporting the data into excel to get this info?